RosterResource Chat – 10/30/25

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the RosterResource Live Chat. The offseason will likely be officially underway by the next chat. Only a couple more manager vacancies and plenty of coaches need to be hired. All that should be done soon. Jon is keeping track with our Coaching grid …

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/breakdowns/coaches

You can click on a name if they’ve played any level of pro ball, check out their career MiLB stats, and usually get a pretty good idea of why they went into coaching.

Sir Nerdlington: How do you think this winter will be different in terms of how teams/players behave given the end of the CBA and likely lockout?

Jon Becker: I don’t think too different ahead of the CBA expiring on December 1, 2026, but the two sides are always in ammo-gathering mode this close to negotiation time. With a possible salary cap the biggest talking point right now, though, it’s hard to say if teams will spend more (so they can say spending is uneven and out of control) or less (so they can preview something like what a salary capped offseason would be).

Chris: I know offseason roster projections this early are mostly for fun, but just curious, is the default to fill in empty spots with those already on the 40 and/or out of options?

Jason Martinez: You are correct that they are fun but they should also be very useful in terms of depth chart and who is “next in line”. Default is always going to be 40-man/out of options/guaranteed contract because there are so many spots that are up for grabs. Once we get to March, spring performance also factors in.

Joey B.: Any White Sox position player prospects have a chance to make an impact in 2026?

Jon Becker: For sure, though the system has thinned out with all the recent promotions. I’d think we’d see Braden Montgomery at some point, and William Bergolla is a less-highly-regarded prospect but performed really well this year.

Jason Martinez: Also keep an eye on Sam Antonacci. Similar to Chase Meidroth. Might not be room for two of those types of hitters in the same lineup but Antonacci might have more power potential that is yet to be untapped.

Ronnie: Jesus Made and Luis Peña on similar track as Jackson Chourio for MLB debuts?

Jason Martinez: Very possible. Both entering their age-19 seasons. Chourio debuted at 20 years old. Brewers infield appears set for 2025. If Joey Ortiz has another mediocre season at the plate, Made or Peña could be the starting SS in 2026. We’ll also see if Caleb Durbin can avoid a sophomore slump after he was better than expected as the starting 3B. Will be interesting to see how often Made/Peña play other positions. Both played some 2B and 3B last season.

Stevie: ETA for Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark?

Jon Becker: McGonigle should (and probably will) get every opportunity to start on Opening Day somewhere on the infield in 2026, especially because I think Báez is probably best served as a super-utility guy. As for Clark, I think he’ll be in play too but (despite doing really well at AA as well) feels a little bit less likely to me because Meadows is so good in CF and they seem to have a lot of faith in him when he’s actually been healthy.

RetireNutting: Thoughts on what Derek Shelton is inheriting as a roster in Minnesota v what he had in Pittsburgh? Fairly roster neutral shot to show what he could do with a different front office (slightly worse pitching, slightly better hitting)?

Jason Martinez: I don’t think Shelton was going to be too picky as long as he got another chance to be 1 of 30 managers. But without doing any research, I’m guessing that going into another rebuild would have to put him danger of having one of the worst W/L% of all-time as a manager. So I think he’s looking at that upper-level prospect talent (there is a lot; mostly position players) and trusting that the Twins are going to supplement all the young talent by spending in FA within a year or two so that he can finally manage a team capable of being a playoff contender.

Appa Yip Yip: So do you think Trey Yesavage has locked down a rotation spot for next year?

Jon Becker: Unless he gets hurt or completely forgets how to pitch, absolutely. Scherzer and Bassitt are FA and Bieber is surely opting out so right now they’re looking at Gausman, Yesavage, and Berríos (his elbow injury made him the forgotten man of this postseason for them, but he’s got a spot), with Lauer and Francis penciled into 4/5 for now and Adam Macko also an option. They’ll definitely add in trade/FA, though, not a lot of upper-level depth there with Tiedemann perpetually hurt and Bloss missing most of this year as well.

Chauncy: If Pete doesn’t re-sign, who do you think are the most likely 1B candidates for NY, give Stearns’ emphasis post-season on defense?

Jason Martinez: Seems like some combination of Vientos/Baty/Mauricio could fill a majority of at-bats between 1B/3B/DH. But not sure that’s enough to replace Alonso. I think Alonso will be a priority and don’t think they’ll go into 2026 without re-signing him or replacing him with another impact bat. They could target a CF but that might be less of a priority if they think Carson Benge is close to helping out. Someone like Cody Bellinger could play CF and then move to 1B once Benge is ready.

Big Fan: How would you value the returning Braves starters given the slew of injuries in 2025?

Jon Becker: I’m extremely unconcerned by Sale, who looked great coming back, and Schwellenbach, who plausibly would have come back if the Braves were contending, and looks like a stud. I’m much more concerned about (1) Reynaldo’s ability to make an impact as a starter coming off a major shoulder injury (and really the peripherals weren’t great in 2024 even though the run prevention was) and (2) if Strider will ever get the extra velocity back or the finish on his slider. But with Wentz and Manoah they’ve at least got interesting options to round out the rotation and fill in, unlike the times this year when they had to get Fedde, Carrasco, and Quantrill just to fill out the rotation.

GB: Chances Houston moves one of Pena or Paredes?

Jason Martinez: I doubt that Jeremy Peña will be traded. He was their MVP in 2025. As things stand, there are enough at-bats for everyone as long as Yordan Alvarez is healthy enough to play LF. (nowhere for Paredes to play if Alvarez is the DH and everyone else is healthy) …

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/astros

But since Alvarez does get hurt often and ideally would at least get a good number of at-bats as the DH, I’m sure they are open to trading Paredes and I’d guess that there is a better than 50% chance. It would be nice to have him as the everyday DH who can fill in at 3B and 1B, especially with Correa’s injury history and Walker’s struggles in 2026. But he’s probably a better fit on a lot of other teams. And he has plenty of trade value.

Michael King: % likelihood he accepts a QO?

Jon Becker: Probably 20% tops if he’s given one? I think it would have a not-insignificant effect on his market if he had the QO on him, but he’s still one of the better SP in a weak class.

bingo: parks harbor seems a little old for his level but hits well…what are your thoughts on this guy?

Jason Martinez: Not that interesting for a 23-year-old to crush A+/A pitching. But once a team sends a player to the Arizona Fall League, that tells us that they think there’s something there and we should take notice. Should be in AA to start 2026. Will be interesting to see how much he plays 3B and corner OF. As a 1B-only guy, he’ll need to keep putting up a .900 OPS to stay on the radar.If he can handle the corners (1B/3B/LF/RF), there will be a clearer path to move up the ladder.

Linus: The Mets have most of their kay players under contract for 2026.  Assuming they want to shake things up after this quasi-catastrophe of a season, who do you think is most likely to be jettisoned, and do they have any trade value that would make doing so worthwhile?

Jon Becker: I think anyone’s plausible besides Soto and Lindor, but the problem is that they’re not really going to find takers for guys they’d like to get off the books unless they ate a lot of money, which defeats at least some of the purpose. McNeil’s deal is reasonable enough where there could be some interest, maybe there’s interest in a Vientos bounceback?

Messing w/rooks: Is Keaschall def the 2b for the Twins next year?  If he stays healthy, does he see 600 PA or does the team mess around with his progression and move him in and out of the lineup?

Jason Martinez: Seems like a lock to me. They threw him right into the middle of the lineup from the time he debuted. He was right back in the middle of the lineup when he returned from injury. Despite his position versatility in the minors, he only played 2B in the majors. And their prospect depth is OF-heavy (Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, etc.) so don’t see him playing much OF moving forward.

Jordan: What do you think the trade market looks like for Skubal if the Tigers decide to seriously shop him? Would it just be big market teams like NYM, NYY, LAD, etc. who think they can extend him or re-sign next winter, or could we also see some small-mid market teams that wants to go all-in on 2026 with Skubal as their ace?

Jon Becker: I think any contender for 2026 has to be considered a possibility if he’s shopped. He’s a Boras client and I don’t think any team can assume that acquiring him gives them much of an edge to bring him back in free agency.

Martian: Is Jasson a better CF or LF for the Yankees or does it not matter because he’ll be traded this offseason?

Jason Martinez: He was pretty bad in LF so I don’t think their plan is for him to be the everyday CF. I can see him being traded to a team that values him as an impact bat with 5 years of team control. That won’t be cheap, though, and a team might not want to give up so much for an unproven player. I also think there’s a decent chance that the Yankees decide that LF is his job to lose and they tell him early on they believe in him and just need him to work as hard as possible to become an adequate defender.

Victoria: Rank the following scenarios by likeliness:
The Cubs pick up Shota’s 3 year option
He comes back on the player option
He comes back on the QO
He is a true free agent

Jon Becker: This is super tough because I could see any of these happening, but from most to least likely I’ll say: true FA, QO, player option, three-year option? He was so shaky down the stretch that I’m not sure I can see the Cubs committing the three years to him but I could also see them give him the QO knowing that it’s worth a one-year gamble. I think he’d have no problem beating the player option value on the open market, either.

Ryan: Jordan Lawlar has been playing center field in winter ball which makes it seem like maybe the Diamondbacks are leaning towards giving him a shot there next year – do you think either of Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy nets then anything of value in a trade if they go that route?

Jason Martinez: Probably a few things going on. My guess is that they’re not ready to hand him or Blaze Alexander the everyday 3B job. They could bring back Eugenio Suarez. Maybe they go big and sign Alex Bregman. In any case, Alexander has already proven himself to be a very good super-utility guy (2B/3B/SS/CF/LF) so he has multiple paths to the big league roster. Not the case yet with Lawlar, who is likely starting 3B or back to AAA. But if they think he can handle CF, he can definitely push Thomas for the CF job at some point.

Insert Witty Name Here: I haven’t heard any credible sources saying Trea Turner is a CF candidate, but doesn’t it make all the sense in the world to move him off short and throw him in CF. Use Sosa/Stott stopgap (alliteration!) until Miller is ready?

Jon Becker: The advanced metrics (FRV especially) loved him at short this year, and I don’t think moving him to CF for his age-33 season is a very good idea when he’s got a history of hamstring injuries, too. I think it’s a lot likelier Miller moves to 2B or 3B to make the majors faster than it is that Turner is playing anywhere but SS when Miller comes up.

TooDamnTall: Can you give me a quick rundown (or link) on your approach for Roster Resource for the offseason? Specifically asking about holes in a team that you know the team is going to address in FA. Do you fill out the current roster with minor league options, even if you are almost certain that those players will not be on the mlb roster? Leave blanks that you assume will get filled?

Jason Martinez: There are no blanks on the roster projections. Some teams needs are more obvious than others but there is always a full roster projected. I always say that if a roster projection makes you think “wtf” because you’ve never heard of a player or you’re surprised by a projection, you’ve probably discovered the roster need. Some teams aren’t very deep to begin the offseason and there might be a journeyman who isn’t on the 40-man on the projected roster and will be the first player removed once an option is exercised or the first player is re-signed or acquired. See Padres/Clay Dungan … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/padres

The easiest explanation for the offseason projections is this. If you took the current team and fast-forwarded to Opening Day, this is what you’d have to work with. Doesn’t mean that a top prospect isn’t going to be up soon. But it’s specific to Opening Day. So it should give the reader a pretty good idea of the current state of the roster. Once the playing time projections are added (early November), it will make even more sense.

AL Central Casting: What 1B might be get-able for the Twins if that’s what they wanted in a Joe Ryan trade? Would Bryce Eldridge be a possibility? Someone like Casas seems like too little and Ben Rice too much (and the Yankees have plenty of SP).

Jon Becker: Eldridge-for-Ryan feels about right in a vacuum, though I don’t think the Giants would go that route — I just don’t see them close enough to contention to give up six years of Eldridge for two of Ryan.

NYYEnjoyer: Do you think Walker Buehler and German Marquez get major league deals?

Jason Martinez: Definitely will get MLB deals. Pitching is hard to find and a lot of the better values are going to be pitchers who are maybe 2 years removed from an injury and weren’t very good  in year one of their return. But I wouldn’t expect like a 1 yr, $5MM value unless it was incentive-heavy. A big market team could easily give either guy $10MM+ in hopes that they can bounce back closer to the version of when they were both very good.

Jason Martinez: That will do it for today. By the time we chat next week, we’ll have a World Series Champion crowned and teams/players will have made decisions on 2026 contract options. Fun times ahead. Have a great weekend!