RosterResource Chat – 11/20/25

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the RosterResource Live Chat! The offseason is happening. Despite a slow start, it’s business as usual with a couple important signings and some trades. Non-tender deadline is tomorrow so it should be another fun day.

Here we go …

AnyHope?: Which disappointing debutant has the best offensive outlook between Mayo, Lawler, and Carson Williams?

Jon Becker: Mayo was best down the stretch by a lot, so I’ll take the easy answer and say him. Way too early to declare Lawlar a bust but he really has looked lost in both of his MLB stints, and Williams makes about as little contact as you can while still potentially being successful, so I’ll always be skeptical of him if he’s hovering in the low-60s in contact rate.

Craig A.: Which O’s do you view as pure excess depth on the ML roster and certifiable trade bait? Mounty, Heston, maybe even Mayo?

Jason Martinez: Has to be Mountcastle and only him for now. Like Jon mentioned, Mayo was looking much better down the stretch and he has a ton of upside and 6 years of club control. I think Kjerstad might qualify as “excess depth” but he has an option and his trade value is down after his health issues and poor performance last season. If he’s healthy and bounces back (even if it’s just crushing AAA pitching for a couple months), he could be a big trade chip by mid-season.

WilThey: What’s the likelihood of a Wilyer Abreu trade and is there any chance that shakes him free of a platoon?

Jon Becker: In Jeff Passan’s huge offseason preview the other day, he described one of Duran and Abreu as “almost surely” traded. My guess is they’d much prefer to move Duran since he’s a free agent sooner and Abreu’s so good in that huge RF in Fenway, but if someone bowls them over with an Abreu offer they could certainly pivot. As for what that would do for Abreu, I think it depends on who’s acquiring him. If he’s going to a fringier or non-contender maybe they give him some run against lefties, but if he’s going to a win-now team I can’t imagine his role changing much.

Ray: Sounds like Colt Emerson has a legitimate chance to be the Opening Day 3B for Seattle. Can you explain your process on deciding when to move him to the projected roster?

Jason Martinez: The biggest part of this is that we have no idea how aggressive teams will be with their top prospects. There is more incentive these days with the PPI but it’s a really big assumption if I was to put someone like that (Emerson, Kevin McGonigle, Konnor Griffin, etc.) on a projected Opening Day roster this early. Could cause a major over-reaction in fantasy drafts. Understandably, people use RR for this kind of stuff and there aren’t notes on every player explaining if something is confirmed, educated guess, etc.

With that said, the longer we go in the offseason with “Player A has a chance to make the Opening Day roster” reports and no pushback from teams or reports that say otherwise, the more I start to increase the playing time %. But I probably wouldn’t add any of them to an Opening Day roster projection until Spring Training. That’s when we’ll really get a good sense. Or unless one of them signs a long-term extension, which is always a possibility.

Chris: I know the posture would be dont make the QO unless youre prepared for it to be accepted, but do you think the Yanks were taken aback?  What comes of Dominguez if they resign Bellinger (or add Tucker, e.g.)?  He’s not a good fit as a 4th OF as his defense is suspect and hes not a good RH caddy.  Would seem like a sell low option, or even send him back down?

Jon Becker: Based on how Cashman was talking about it publicly before he accepted (I think his exact quote was “we’d be happy to have him back”) I don’t think they were that taken aback. And like you said, don’t make the offer if there’s no plan on what happens if he says yes. If they add another outfielder, I think that sending Dominguez down is under discussed (maybe not discussed at all) on the list of options, and I think it’s a good idea if there’s not a commensurate trade for him. It’s not to his benefit to sit on the bench five or six days a week.

Larry W: Tolle or Early start the year in the Red Sox rotation?  Even with acquiring a #2, their upside seems much higher than some of the other options.

Jason Martinez: I have Early in the rotation for now, just based on how the season ended and who looked more MLB-ready between those two … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox

As things stand, assuming Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval are ready to go, there might not be room for any of the younger guys once they add a No. 2 starter. That would be a great problem to have. Of course, we can’t assume everyone will be healthy going into the season so all that SP depth will be important. And I think Tolle vs Early is close enough that it probably would be decided by spring performance and then would continue into the MiLB season if they both start the season in AAA.

Mikey Z: No chance Schwarber signs with the Pirates even if they did give him a competitive offer. If they are spending big on an impact bat, who is the free agent that signs a multi-year contract?

Jon Becker: Unfortunately for them, they made a lot of sense to me as a fit for Grisham or Torres, since they’d both have come in well under $100M, which seems a lot easier to see the Pirates doing than dropping $120M+ on Schwarber. The “good” thing about having such a bad group of position players is that no position is spoken for, so they could be players for any of those second-tier-and-below hitters. Suárez, Polanco, O’Hearn, Arraez, Yaz, Ozuna would each be immensely helpful in at least raising the floor.

jojo: did the Brewers fleece NY in the Williams trade?  feels like the regret is going to be strong there

Jason Martinez: I’d lean “probably not” and I think it’s a TBD at this point. Despite a couple of rough patches, Williams finished strong and he was a reliable option in the post-season. Would be different if they just couldn’t trust him at all for the majority of the season or if he was hurt and missed most of the season. But if Durbin takes another step forward — he’s a 10-15 HR, 20-25 SB guy right now — and he becomes a legitimate 20 HR, 30 SB guy for a few years, the Yankees might regret that trade just a bit.

Dodgers Blue: Will Harry Ford get enough at bats at the ML level to warrant him being the full-year back up?

Jon Becker: I think the answer to this basically has to work in the other direction: it’s less about “will he get enough PA to warrant being the full-year backup” and more about “if Harry Ford is the full-year backup over someone else, it’s because they think they can find enough playing time for him.” I know Raleigh doesn’t like DHing much but Ford’s upside is of course a lot higher than the Mariners version of Garver, so they’ll commit to time for him. With their current DH situation, it wouldn’t be hard.

LLC: Should Atlanta leave Dubon at SS and get a big bag for OF/DH or get a SS like Kim and use Dubon as a utility guy that plays five days a week?

Jason Martinez: Seems like they have one big hole to fill in the lineup and are open to spending big on one guy. And I don’t think it will be a DH. Baldwin and Murphy are too good for them to be out of the lineup very often so they’ll DH a lot. They’ll both need some time off but seems like a good idea to also give guys like Acuña, Riley, Albies some DH at-bats.

They should aim high at SS (Bichette) and pivot to Kim as the backup plan before it’s too late. Great teams need someone like Dubon on the bench. Braves don’t have a ton of position player depth so he’ll be important even if he’s not the starting SS.

Dodgers Blue: What was the thought behind the swap of IFs Dubon and Allen all about?

Jon Becker: The Braves gave Allen a lot of run last year at short and while he was a fantastic defender, he just can’t hit. Dubón is still a really good defender who has more offensive upside if he ends up the starter, plus the defensive versatility if they end up with Bichette or Kim. On the Astros side of things, it’s entirely a money saving maneuver, as this should save them over $4M. It was reported this morning that they want to stay under the luxury tax line, and they only have about $25M to spare. They could create more room by non-tendering Jesús Sánchez, though.

M’s RF: Does Victor Robles really have a chance of living up to the M’s expectations, or is it going to be more mediocrity with a mix of him, Canzone, and Raley?

Jason Martinez: Not sure what they’re expecting. He’s not as good as he showed after they signed him in 2024. And he’s probably not as bad as he looked in 2025. Ideally, he’s their 4th OF who plays primarily vs LHP. They’re in position to do that now but Raley would have to bounce back from a bad season. Not sure they’re counting on him, either.

Based on their terrific/magical/exciting 2025 season, I think ownership owes it to the fans to add at least one more big bat to keep the momentum going. Re-signing Polanco seems like a priority. But they have Emerson and Michael Arroyo on the way. Cole Young should get another long look. Adding a RF would be a better fit, in my opinion.

Chris: What do you think a Jazz extension looks like?  Trouble finding a comp as he’s 3 yrs younger than Semien was and is a better hitter than Swanson.

Jon Becker: Better hitter than Swanson and much more dynamic on the bases, but at the time of his signing Swanson was maybe the premier shortstop defender in the league, whereas Jazz is very good but not amazing at 2B, which is lower on the defensive spectrum anyway. So I actually think the Dansby contract is a pretty decent comp when considering all the factors.

Guest: Camposano and Fermin are SD catchers this year? Are they expecting Salaa up early or are they really gonna roll w/ Fermin as the starter?

Jason Martinez: Salas needs a full season in the upper minors. Needs to stay healthy and show that he can hit. Despite all the hype, he hasn’t done that yet. Almost no chance he plays in the majors in 2026 unless he takes a huge step forward.

Would be surprising if Campy was their backup. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of him being on their bench as a DH/1B with some occasional late-inning catching only when absolutely necessary. Of course, we should get the answer to this based on the Padres’ offseason. My guess is they will look for a good complement to Fermin. I think JC Escarra is a great fit.

Mike Elias: What single player addition would elevate the Orioles into legit contenders?

Jon Becker: Cease or Imai, take your pick. As great as Tucker is (and he is great, and they should want him), I think the marginal improvement of having a guy who at his best has Game 1 of the World Series-level stuff is what would really make me feel good about their offseason. Not hard to see a lot of their other improvements coming from within, like Holliday/Mayo/Basallo taking the next step, Henderson getting back to hitting more homers, a full year of Bradish, etc.

Erik T: What do the Jays do with Angel Bastardo? He needs to be on the roster for the whole season still, and there isn’t really room on the current roster, let alone when the Jays likely add another pitcher or two. Any chance he’s actually still a Blue Jay a year from now?

Jason Martinez: They currently have 2 open 40-man spots and maybe 2-3 DFA candidates. At least for now, they don’t have to make a decision on him. Ideally, they can carry him long enough to place him on the 60-Day IL (mid-February) and then get a good look at him in spring and during a MiLB rehab assignment before they have to make a decision. If they need his 40-man spot at some point this offseason, though, he could eventually be the odd man out. Rule 5 picks should have a difficult time sticking on the roster of a World Series contender.

Harry: What’s your favorite non-managerial coaching staff hire of the offseason so far?

Jon Becker: Good chance for me to plug the Coaches grid that I update every time there’s a hiring/firing! I think it’s a tie between Austin Nola/Travis Jankowski (they both played in MLB this year!) and new Twins bench coach LaTroy Hawkins, who did some coaching for Team USA collegiate teams but hasn’t coached professionally and was a (very good) part-time broadcast analyst for the team this year.

Dodgers Blue: Which 2-3 teams do you guys expect to have the BIGGEST change to your current RR projections between now and Opening Day?

Jason Martinez: I’ll go with one bad team (Rockies) and one good team that will probably shake things up a bit (Mets). Not surprisingly, it sounds like DePodesta understands that he should build a team that takes advantage of the Rockies’ home field. And my expecation is that there will be huge changes once he does a full analysis and decides what type of players will fit what he wants to do.

Mets have so much young talent on the way,  high value prospect trade chips, veteran trade chips, and $$$ to spend on free agents. They also have to replace the entire bullpen.

Jon Becker: I’ll add the Cubs and Phillies to the mix, since both have a lot of space on their 40-man. The Cubs also have a replace a whole bullpen and the Phillies are going to get rid of Castellanos one way or another.

QOs: Four players accepted the QO this year. Do you think it’s due to the potential impending lockout, or were there just an unusual amount of questionable offers this year? Honestly I’m kind of leaning towards the latter.

Jon Becker: I posted about this on BlueSky in the wake of the acceptances, so I’ll just reshare that opinion here: I think it says a lot more about who got QO’d than it does anything about missed games in 2027, in my opinion. I would’ve been shocked if Imanaga didn’t accept, Woodruff and Torres didn’t surprise me, and I can at least see why Grisham re-upped (declining defense, not much of a track record at all at the plate).

Simon: Would you rather pay Alonso 4/120 or tucker 11/345? Tucker is a much better player and is 2 years younger and allows the Mets to improve defensively at 2 positions (1B and RF). This allows the Mets to rotate DH and move Nimmo/Soto to 1B…

Jason Martinez: Not a big fan of long-term deals that take a player well past their prime? I’m a Padres fan and it sucks to think about since they have quite a few. Having Tucker/Soto/Nimmo on the same roster is workable as long as one of them can DH. But I’d still take Alonso on the shorter-term deal. I don’t mind overpaying on the AAV when it’s re-signing a homegrown guy still in his prime and a fan favorite.

Eshan: is seager to the yankees realistic/would they even want him

Jon Becker: “Probably not” to both questions. He gets hurt a lot, is entering his age-32 season, and has six years left. Texas would have to eat at least $10M a year to get any teams particularly interested, I think.

Tommy M: Offseason predictions for the Astros now that we know they’re trying to stay under the luxury threshold? Seems like they are currently under by about $20 million.

Jason Martinez: Their priority is SP and that’s not enough room to add one of the best free starters (Cease, King, Gallen, Framber, etc). However, they could still trade Paredes (projected $9.3MM salary) and/or non-tender or trade Jesus Sanchez ($6.5MM projected salary) and maybe a few other smaller moves to free up salary. So that’s my prediction. Free up another $10-12MM and add one of those top guys.

Yark: The Brewers are already 12m over last yrs #. Does the Woodruff signing hurt them like Hoskins opt in last yr did as far as offseason moves?

Jon Becker: It hurts them in that it’s a big chunk of money tied up for a team in the league’s smallest market, but Woodruff for $22.025M is a way better value than Hoskins for $18M was heading into last year. They’re always creatively looking to improve but they now have all their core pieces returning and can focus on the margins.

Guest: How do you see the closer situation shaping up in TB next year?

Jason Martinez: Will be interesting to see if they revert back to the time when they’d have 10+ guys getting saves throughout the season. But they stuck with Fairbanks as pretty much the primary closer for the past few seasons. Now they have at least 5 guys with closer potential (Jax, Uceta, Cleavinger, Baker, Bigge). Someone can emerge from that group but they could also just mix and match.

Jason Martinez: That will do it for today. Thanks for joining us! Enjoy non-tender day tomorrow and have a great weekend.