RosterResource Chat – 12/13/24

Jason Martinez: Hello everybody. Jon and I are back from Winter Meetings. It wasn’t necessary for us to be in Dallas to update all of the roster moves that happened, but we were able to meet up with our FanGraphs colleagues and had our annual RosterResource meeting. Hopefully, we’ll have some more cool RR features added in the near future. Ask us some questions.

Some kinda Mook: Hendricks is likely to be the primary closer in Boston if healthy, right?

Jon Becker: My guess is that without any further additions they’ll “platoon” Hendriks and Chapman based on matchups, and they’ll probably be careful with Hendriks about back-to-back games in the early going anyway. Justin Slaten’s another option too.

Jason Martinez: Yep. I would guess he’d have a chance to be the “primary” closer sometime in May if he looks like the old Liam Hendriks and able to pitch back-to-back days.

Justin: On Cortes for Williams, I feel like a potential 2.5-3 win pitcher is too much to give up for a reliever. Plus the Yankees also gave the Brewers money and a prospect. Am I off-base here? Thanks!

Jason Martinez: Remember that Cortes had a flexor strain to end the season and was only added to the playoff roster when they were comfortable that he could pitch in relief. It’s possible that he won’t pitch at all in 2025, although they probably won’t know much until he ramps up in spring. My guess is that the Brewers really like Durbin and also made sure to get some $ back because of Cortes’ injury risk.

Jon Becker: I also think the context matters here, in that Cortes was probably 7th on the SP depth chart for the Yankees so he was expendable for them.

Banjo, for breakfast?: Thoughts on which Rule 5 guys landed into situations where they might stick?

Jon Becker: Shane Smith and Evan Reifert come to mind, since both the White Sox and Nationals have wide-open bullpens right now. Was surprised Reifert wasn’t picked a little earlier, actually.

Cubbles: Any traction on Kyle Tucker getting traded? If not the Cubs, what other teams might make a move? NYY seems out after dealing Nestor.

Jason Martinez: Sounds like it’s getting close. If it happens during the chat, I’ll be stepping away for 5-10 minutes to update things. Cubs appear to be the main focus right now with Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith part of the deal.

MilledgeReport: Mets likely to add another SP? Any thoughts on who? Rotation looking a little light at the moment.

Jon Becker: I think they will, yeah, especially since a six-man is plausible (if not likely) to keep Senga and Holmes healthy and limit their innings a bit. Stearns isn’t the type to spend huge on starters despite all of Steve Cohen’s money, so I think it would be someone like Pivetta or Buehler.

Baltimoron: Wtf is Elias doing

Jason Martinez: Apparently, right-handed power was a priority: move in the fences and sign two right-handed batters (Tyler O’Neill, Gary Sanchez) with plus-plus power. Lineup is very good. Bullpen should be fine. Top priority should be adding a frontline starter, although they don’t seem likely to get Burnes back. Maybe they add Manaea or Flaherty. Maybe Walker Buehler.

Jon Becker: Doesn’t sound like they were all that interested in trading for Crochet either; Eflin being the Opening Day starter strikes me as likelier than not.

Nickles: Once signed, does Roki Sasaki become the most valuable asset in terms of roster construction in baseball given how below market his deal will be?

Jon Becker: I don’t think the most valuable, since he’s not going to be any cheaper than all of the other pre-arbitration players doing really well right now. Paul Skenes is immensely underpaid, for example.

Banjo, for breakfast?: Javier Baez is under contract through 2027. With the Tigers now a contender, what’s the absolute earliest you could see them dropping him and eating the rest of the deal? Feel like I never see that happen before the last year of a contract, but…

Jason Martinez: I think 2026 at the earliest. Not in 2025 since Trey Sweeney, despite him holding his own last season, is still unproven over a full season. Baez gives them insurance at starting SS and, at the least, a platoon player who is above-average at SS/3B/SS. And he’s a bounce-back candidate.

Jon Becker: I also don’t think Báez is magically going to be really good again but it’s worth noting that the back injury really seemed to affect him.

Ham Fighter: Am I too optimistic in believing that Caleb Durbin will be competition with Dunn/Monasterio for backup IF and the Brewers will still acquire a starting calibre IF before the offseason is over?

Jon Becker: I think getting $4.5M or so (per Nightengale) back in the trade is helpful at freeing up a little bit of cash to sign someone, though it’s not like you can get anyone great for just $4.5M. Ha-Seong Kim makes a lot of sense for them even though he won’t be ready for Opening Day.

Ryan: Which team that hasn’t really made any moves yet surprises you the most?

Jason Martinez: I’ll go with the Nationals. Good young core of position players and starting pitchers and ready to take the next big step. If that’s the plan, it hasn’t happened yet and not really much buzz surrounding them ready to do something big.

Jon Becker: They were my pick to have the biggest offseason of the non-playoff teams, and that certainly won’t be true with the Giants having signed Adames.

J: If the Cubs do trade for Tucker, presumably Bellinger gets dealt shortly after. But even then, how do they deal with the outfield logjam? Suzuki is apparently not keen on DHing and they have Alcantara and Caissie waiting in the wings.

Jon Becker: Suzuki’s not keen on DHing but he would just have to, frankly (and they could give Tucker and Happ some days there). I don’t think they’re going to trade someone else to make room for Alcantara or Caissie, if they’re ready it’ll work itself out.

Guest: Do you believe 26 starts is the average outcome for deGrom starts as listed in the Depth Charts after this many years of being hurt?

Jason Martinez: I have plenty of readers and colleagues who disagree with my philosophy on how to project playing time with the system we have in place. And, in regards to deGrom, it’s this: He’s fully healthy. He pitched at the end of last season. He makes $40MM. And I have him projected to miss around 6 weeks. Not up to me to predict that he’ll have an injury that will keep him out longer than that. The reader can make that judgement.

TW: Do you think the Rangers will/should move Lowe now that they have Burger?

Jon Becker: Wouldn’t surprise me if they did, but I don’t think they should just for the sake of it. Depth is important, especially with huge question marks around the health of Carter and Jung, and García underperforming this year.

Keith: Thanks guys. How likely the Brewers move Turang to SS if Durbin clicks in spring training?

Jason Martinez: I heard an interview with either Matt Arnold or Pat Murphy (sorry, don’t remember which one) and he stressed that both Ortiz or Turang would be really good at SS. They’d rather not move Turang off of 2B since he just proved that he’s one of the best in the game there, but said they were open to it depending on how things shake out. Is Durbin the guy that is gonna shake things up? Not sure he’s that guy, but it would be Durbin at 2B, Ortiz at 3B, and Turang at SS if that happened to be the case. Not sure the plan is to go into Spring Training without one more proven option.

By the way, that was my initial projection but I changed my mind and went with a safer one for now … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/brewers

Joe: Is NYY really the only potential taker for Bellinger?

Jon Becker: Astros and Mariners also are reportedly interested in him, but the latest signs point to the Yankees, especially if/when Tucker to Chicago gets done.

victoria: paredes + Smith + Wesneski is the final package

Jason Martinez: “Expected to be” are the words in Jon Heyman’s last tweet. Those are not included in the magic words I need before I make the update. But, yeah, seems like it’s about to go down.

Banjo, for breakfast?: At this (admittedly outrageously early) point of the off-season, who’s your pick for the veteran player that ends up on an NRI deal who ends up providing the most 2025 WAR for their team?

Jon Becker: I probably have to pick someone who hasn’t even signed yet, since it’s going to be the type of player who’s holding out for an MLB deal but can’t find one. Maybe Nicky Lopez has a randomly good BABIP- and fielding-fueled two-win season?

fuz: What’s the data behind slotting Angel Martinez at 2B for the Guardians?  Seems reasonable but wondering what you might have heard.

Jason Martinez: Initially, I was ready to put Juan Brito in that spot before I read a few scouting reports on him. Seems limited defensively and still some holes in his game that made me wonder if that’s who they were clearing a spot for. They really were trying to get Martinez in the lineup last season and batting him near the top of the order for a bit. I don’t think he’s a sure thing, but I’d give him the edge in the current group of contenders.

Jason Martinez: Stepping away for about 10 minutes since the Tucker-to-Cubs deal is done. Jon will take over until I return.

guest: Hi Jason and Jon, (accidentally hit enter lol). With the A”s finally!!! dishing out a massive contract at only $67 million to Severino, it shows that they are definitely capable of spending more money.  Looking at 2024 payroll pages, 10 of the 30 MLB teams are hovering around $110mil or below payroll, whereas the top 10 teams are above $200mil with two surpassing $300mil for both Mets and Yankees. Of the bottom 10 and off the top of my head, Baltimore, Washington, Detroit have all shown desired to spend and compete in the past, and very well could in the near future. What does the MLB/Manfred have to do to get teams like Oakland, Cleveland, Tampa, Pittsburgh, even Miami and Cincinnati to spend and compete more? Are there any strings they can pull to incentivize spending? Punish complacency? Establishing a bottom cap? Thank you for your smarter input than me!

Jon Becker: There are already rules in place to make sure that teams who receive revenue sharing funds are actually reallocating that money into the team — I believe the current CBA says that a team’s payroll needs to be 1.5x what they receive in revenue sharing or else the MLBPA can file a grievance, though the punishment for that isn’t really clear. Definitely would be a fan of a salary floor but I don’t think that would happen without a hard cap, which I’m very much not a fan of .

Justin: Seems like the Hader/McCullers/Pressley/Abreu contracts are causing the Astros to not be able to keep Bregman and Tucker. Is this mismanagement or just bad luck on some of the results.

Jon Becker: It’s both, I think. The Hader and Pressly contracts have worked out fine, Abreu, Montero, and McCullers have obviously been disasters (the McCullers one through no fault of his own). But there has been a little bit of mismanagement, too; the Cristian Javier contract was pretty above-market for someone with his service time.

Edward: Fits for NYY to round out the lineup?

Jon Becker: The aforementioned Bellinger makes a lot of sense, as would acquiring someone like Brandon Lowe to play second or first and take aim at the short porch. Don’t love Bregman as a fit in that park but it may well happen anyway.

Banjo, for breakfast?: Of the young RPs who ascended to closer last season, who do you think has the best chance to hold that job at least until opening day? (Thinking Faucher, J Martinez, P Hodge… might be forgetting someone)

Jon Becker: Faucher is probably likeliest on Opening Day since it’s not like the Marlins are going to add anyone of note to compete with or take the job from him outright. Martinez should be in high leverage all year but I could see them using Puk in some situations if the matchups are better.

DET: Which two of Mize, Jobe, Maeda, Hurter, Montero, Manning, Gipson-Long will log the most starts for the Tigers next year?

Jon Becker: I’ll say Mize and Manning. Jobe will pitch plenty but they’re probably going to limit him to at least some extent, Maeda seems to be in an uphill climb for starts since he didn’t look that much better out of the bullpen.

Chris: I know they had to pivot after losing Soto but i dont get the Yanks’ series of moves. Sign a 31 yo pitcher for 8 yrs to massive money, then turn around and trade a sneakily good starter and your purported 2B for one year of a closer when relievers can be had anywhere. And even talking about Gil and Rice for a one year rental in Tucker is nuts.

Jon Becker: Yeah, there’s definitely a lot of risk with Fried, though I don’t have a problem at all with the package they gave up for Williams. Cortes was buried on the depth chart and Durbin could be useful but isn’t particularly highly regarded. And seeing what the Cubs gave up for Tucker, I don’t think Gil + Rice would have gotten it done anyway.

Tucker: Thoughts on cubs package for Tucker?

Jon Becker: Steep price to pay for sure, but Wesneski’s got something of a homer problem and they might’ve viewed Paredes and Smith as redundant enough to move with Matt Shaw waiting in the wings.

Jon Becker: I’ve got to sign off to update the payroll pages with the Tucker trade, Jason will take it from here!

Jason Martinez: Here are my initial updated roster projections after the Astros-Cubs trade …

Cubs: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/cubs

Astros: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/astros

Jason Martinez: I think the Cubs will add a veteran 3B as a stop-gap for Matt Shaw. Whatever caliber that stop-gap is will tell us how much they believe in Shaw. Sounds like they think he’s going to help in 2025. Not sure if it’s on Opening Day, although I wouldn’t rule it out.

Jason Martinez: Obviously, a Bellinger trade is very likely to happen and that would clear things up in their OF.

Banjo, for breakfast?: Sometimes I play a game where, the second I see a transaction happen, I rush to RosterResource to see if I can catch it before you’ve updated the page(s)… I’ve never won.

Jason Martinez: You probably won on this one. This sets up both teams to make additional moves so not everything fell right into place with this projection. Took a bit longer.

Bregman: Astros – With Paredes added, Bregman has gotta be gone right?

Jason Martinez: Unless they have another trade set up for Paredes, that seems to be the case. And Paredes does seem like a great fit in that ballpark so my assumption is that they’re moving on from Bregman and their focus has to be on the OF, which (according to me) is currently projected as Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, and Taylor Trammell.

Guest: Is slaten a relief only option or are the sox considering stretching him out to be a starter

Jason Martinez: Haven’t seen anything on Slaten, specifically, but I wouldn’t rule it out because it doesn’t really affect his role in the bullpen. If anything, it just gives him more value as a multi-inning reliever if he’s stretched out to 3-4 innings and they decide they don’t need him as a starter this season. They are stretching out Michael Fulmer and (I’m assuming) Josh Winckowski and I think they’ll also end up in the bullpen.

Justin: What are the chances the Mets starting the year with Baty and Vientos at 3b and 1b? There aren’t a lot of options in FA besides Bregman, Alonso and Walker.

Jason Martinez: If they don’t re-sign Alonso, I think chances are decent that will be the case. Baty was a really good prospect before the injury. Mets can probably afford to have one unproven guy (with big upside) at the bottom of their lineup. I think there’s also some trade possibilities, though. Remainder of the offseason should be fun.

Tucker: Thanks.  If you were an Astros fan, how would you feel about the return?

Jason Martinez: I’d be bummed out because that means (probably) Bregman and Tucker are officially gone, Cam Smith better end up being really good in the near future, and the rest of our offseason better be good enough to make me feel less bummed out.

Ryan: Do you think the Diamondbacks make any big-time moves or will they mostly be bargain-hunters this offseason? Pretty quiet so far

Jason Martinez: I think they are one of the quiet teams that are capable of coming out of nowhere to make a big move. They have done that in the past. Focus right now is probably on trying to trade Jordan Montgomery or one of their other starters. My guess is they’ll add a big bat at 1B or corner OF. It would be fun if they acquired Cody Bellinger.

Jason Martinez: That will do it for today’s chat. We’ll be back next Friday. Thanks for joining us!