RosterResource Chat – 12/18/25

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the RosterResource Live Chat! Due to the upcoming holidays, this will be the last Thursday chat until January 8. We might re-schedule to the next two Fridays but that is still TBD. A lot of baseball to discuss. Here we go …

Scott: Everyone is reporting the Foster Griffin’s contract with the Nats as a one year deal. But he only has 1 year of major league service time, and only 3 years of overseas professional service. Why would he become a free agent at the end of the year (assuming the Nats keep him on the 40 and want to tender him a 2027 contract)?

Jon Becker: Players normally need six years of MLB service time to reach free agency, but those coming over from (or back from) NPB or KBO always have it written into their contracts that they reach free agency when the contract is up. So Murakami/Okamoto will be free agents whenever their contracts end, same with Cody Ponce, etc.

Mike: The new leader of the Twins wants accountability and no more half measures…. And they sign Josh Bell…..

Jason Martinez: Well, they’re definitely not going to start spending big $ this offseason so the focus will be on assessing all of their young talent. 1B is the one giant hole that had to be addressed and they don’t really have a young player ready to step in there. Signing a well-respected veteran who had an .818 OPS over his final 400 PA last season is fine. Need a few older guys in there to mentor the kids before he gets traded prior to the deadline.

Simon: If Tucker doesn’t sign with the Blue Jays, what team will, and what is the max contract offer you’d be comfortable giving him?

Jon Becker: There hasn’t been much on Tucker, which to be clear doesn’t mean that there’s not interest — it just means things are quiet, and maybe that’s how he wants it and/or it’s the nature of the teams who are interested in him. He’d be a great fit in Yankee Stadium but they seem to be prioritizing Bellinger and might not be that into Tucker anyway, and beyond that his market is pretty unknown. The Mets always have money to spend and the need for a big bat, and the Dodgers are always lurking and looking to be opportunistic, so I’ll bring them both up. As for contract, maybe 10/350? He’s never had that truly elite 6+ win season but I think it’s in there somewhere.

Guest: ETA’s for Jackson Jobe and Ben Joyce?

Jason Martinez: Jobe’s elbow ligament had the worst timing to tear. Surgery in June 2025 means he’s probably not pitching in any meaningful games until 2027. There are exceptions (see Shane Bieber) but they’ll still have 4 years of club control for Jobe so they are going to be very cautious even if he’s ready to return late in the season.

Shoulder surgeries are less predictable and you also have to take into account that Joyce throws 104 MPH. Just because he can throw that hard doesn’t mean his shoulder (on the mend from surgery) can handle that type of velocity. I’m guessing mid-season but I don’t think we’ll know much until Spring Training.

Jon Becker Stan: Jon which sub-3 WAR member of his team in 2009 (you can pick literally anyone) would help his team (same franchise he was on in 09) out the most in 2026? Assuming the same talent level now as in 2009

Jon Becker: First off I am flattered by the display name, though you really need to stan more interesting people. Secondly I think it is probably easiest to look at the best sub-3 WAR pitcher on the 2009 Rockies since that pitching staff is always suspect. So come on down, Jorge De La Rosa!

Raj: What would you say are the odds that Ryan Clifford makes the Opening Day roster for the Mets? Not much buzz around him compared to Benge but 1B/DH/LF is just as shallow for the Mets with Jeff McNeil actively being shopped and Mark Vientos having an uninspiring 2025.

Jason Martinez: Very low. As things stand, I don’t think it’s out of the question because there are probably enough at-bats between 1B/DH/LF. And I think they’ll probably trade McNeil or Vientos. But I also think there’s no way they don’t add another bat. I think there will be a possibility for a mid-season call-up as long as he’s crushing AAA and McNeil/Vientos is struggling in the majors.

It does sound like they’re leaving the door open for one rookie on Opening Day and that would likely be Benge in CF.

Jay: How do you think the Jays are going to approach having 2 Rule 5 pitchers to roster this year? Let them fight it out in spring training and see if someone is a decent enough reliever to bring north?

Jon Becker: I think you have it right, they’re of course a caliber (calibre?) of team that isn’t going to carry an R5 guy just for the sake of it and almost definitely not two like the White Sox could. Assuming health it’s tough to find a spot for even one of them, even if they did something like trade Nance or Yimi García that just opens up a spot for Braydon Fisher, who deserves one but is a victim of being optionable.

Devin: Seems like Realmuto will end up re-signing with Philly. But what do the Phillies do if he signs elsewhere? Not many good options in free agency.

Jason Martinez: Phillies are probably fortunate that most teams are set enough at catcher that they’re not willing to spend big $ on a 35-year-old catcher. Caratini is the best free agent option. But he’s best as a part-time guy. Mitch Garver and Gary Sanchez can hit the ball out of the park. I think someone like Jose Trevino could be a trade candidate. Hard to see the Phillies in any situation that isn’t a huge downgrade if Realmuto leaves.

Matt: How come Mike Trout’s salary (LRD, not CBT) is listed at $37.16M instead of the $35.45M that  the AP says is his annual salary? I know there was a $20M signing bonus, but AP says it was paid out in 2019.

Jon Becker: I’m yet to figure out why this is the case, but it’s stipulated in the CBA that signing bonuses are allocated pro rata over the life of the contract, regardless of when actually paid out, hence the discrepancy. On the (ever-growing) list of things to do is add a feature to the payroll pages that allows you to see what portion of a players listed salary is the prorated signing bonus, since that’s always paid by the signing team and it can create some confusion when discussing how much money is left on a contract when a player is traded.

Rodriguez: Which free agent relievers have the best chance for save chances?

Jason Martinez: Pete Fairbanks has the best chance to be penciled in as a team’s closer but even that’s not a sure thing. Playoff-contending teams understand how important it is to have a strong bullpen that can shut a lineup down for 3-4 innings. See contracts for Keller/Weaver/Suarez to be setup men.

But there are more than a few teams that don’t really have a good closer on the roster right now. So it’s possible that someone like Seranthony Dominguez or Sean Newcomb or Shawn Armstrong land with one of those teams to (at least) be part of a closer committee.

Updated list of FA relievers …

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?sign=unsi…

Farhandrew Zaidman: On a scale of “I see the vision” to “how many psychedelics did you ingest?” – Rockies trade Doyle for arms, move one of the young OF to CF, sign Arraez 3/30 to play 1B (he’ll hit 400 in Coors), sign Murakami 5/75 to DH (he’ll bang 50 dingers in Coors). Will they be good? No. But will they be interesting?

Jon Becker: I’m not sure about Veen or Beck’s ability to handle that massive CF, but I’ve been banging the Arraez-to-Colorado drum all offseason, and Murakami would be super fun there, too. I’m all for making them interesting even if it doesn’t line up with contention windows. If Arraez ends up needing a pillow deal and Murakami has to do, say, two years with an opt out in the middle, there aren’t better options than 81 games at Coors.

Guest: Any chance Joey Cantillo makes the rotation at some point? He seems to have to more in the bag than just the long man role. Is it a workload concern?

Jason Martinez: For Opening Day projection purposes (5-man rotation unless a team says otherwise), I have him listed as the long man. The Guardians used a 6-man rotation late in the season and those 6 pitchers are all healthy and deserving of a rotation spot. I have the projected starts balanced out to reflect that all 6 will start a lot of games …

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=5

In reality, 1 of the 6 will be injured (or injured enough) to begin the season on the IL and it will all work itself out. But, when all are healthy, I think there will times during the season when they go with a 6-man rotation. And times when one of them is either in AAA or pitching out of the ‘pen.

Guest: Would the Twins trade Royce Lewis? Or cross their fingers and hope he stays healthy for 140+ games at some point?

Jon Becker: I think they ought to consider anything, but it would be selling low on him to trade him now. I think the best play would be to see if he can put it all together over a full season and then see where the team as a whole is at when considering how to proceed in 2027.

Robbie H: Best starting pitchers available at a discounted rate in late January/February?

Jason Martinez: Best guesses … 1 or 2 of Zach Eflin, Nick Martinez, Tyler Mahle, Michael Lorenzen, Walker Buehler could all be sitting there a week before Spring Training and end up taking a $8MM-$10MM deal with incentives.

AJ: Is Gallen more likely to get a 2/3 year deal with opt-outs or get a long term deal with a team is off-season?

Jon Becker: Jason had to head out early so you’re all stuck with me for the rest of the chat! As for this question I think the former is much more likely, he’s coming off two straight iffy seasons with his only real positive trait being his durability. I think something between 2/44 and 2/52 with an opt out makes a lot of sense.

Ice Cream Helmet: Have you even seen a pro SP share his opinion as to which type of lineup is harder to face – a top-heavy stars/scrubs, or a solid 1-9 with no superstars/black holes?

Jon Becker: I’ve never seen this answered explicitly but I do recall a lot of pitchers saying things like “I couldn’t come up for air” or “there was never really a break” when facing good lineups. So I tend to think that pitchers would prefer a top-heavy lineup that has a pocket that they can breathe a little more easily while facing.

Kramer: What player that gets traded this offseason brings back the largest haul?

Jon Becker: I’ll say Ketel Marte, followed by Jarren Duran

Justin: Who do you think will be the Mets opening day dh? Thanks

Jon Becker: Jorge Polanco, and someone not currently on the roster will be playing first base

Guest: Who are some realistic trade targets for the Pirates? They continue to swing and miss at big-ish fish in FA. Could a deal with the Twins for either Larnach or Wallner make sense?

Jon Becker: Wallner is a really interesting high-upside guy, but I don’t see Larnach being much of a needle-mover for the lineup, even if he would be an upgrade. Some other names that come to mind: Coby Mayo, Ryan Mountcastle, Jarren Duran, Joey Loperfido, Mark Vientos, Brendan Donovan, Ketel Marte (if they really wanted to go big)

Kramer: Colby Mayo – trade bait or regular part of Orioles lineup in 2026?  Good fit in a swap for Edward Cabrera?

Jon Becker: I don’t see a realistic way for him to be a regular part of the lineup with Alonso at first and Basallo likely to get a lot of time at DH, plus the need to work the overflow outfielder (probably Tyler O’Neill) into the lineup too. He makes a little less sense for the Marlins now that they have Christopher Morel but it’s not implausible to me.

Guest: What would be a fair return for Jarren Duran?

Jon Becker: I keep seeing Duran for Ragans as something that makes sense for both sides, and I agree as a general framework, though I’d want a little bit more if I was the Royals.

Kramer: Contreras, Nootbaar, Donovan, pages, Gorman, Arenado, Burleson. Who gets traded and who stays?

Jon Becker: Shot in the dark but, in order: stays, traded, traded, stays, stays, traded, stays.

Jon Becker: That’ll do it for today! We’ll see you next time, hoping we can find a time to do at least one before the New Year. But if not, Happy Holidays and Happy New Year to everyone!