RosterResource Chat – 3/12/26

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the RosterResource Live Chat! 12 more days until Opening Day. A lot of good position battles still undetermined. Spring Training performance matters a lot for many involved. This is the time where I start looking a lot closer and making adjustments. Feel free to point out if I’m overlooking something or ask why a projection is a certain way. 

Here we go …

BP: Are there any rookie/minor league relievers you think will make a big impact this year?

Jon Becker: Very likely I’m missing someone but the prospects that have jumped out at me who aren’t on projected rosters are Ryan Lambert (ridiculously good fastball shape and a great slider, too) of the Mets and Josh White (filthy slider) of the Marlins. Griff McGarry (apparently I’m really honing in on the NL East) is another name to keep in mind, but not sure he’ll throw enough strikes.

Jesse: Roster Resource lists only two Blue Jays pitchers (Yesavage, Fisher) under 28 in their current pitching group. What are the chances this group just has a sharp decline across the board?

Jason Martinez: The chances are uncomfortably high for every team, including the Blue Jays and Dodgers, who each have more MLB starters than spots on the roster. Berrios missing a start due to elbow inflammation (this was reported today) is supposedly different than his elbow issue from last season. But the risk is already high that he won’t be available (or effective) for a full season. Their top pitching prospect (Tiedemann) is still dealing with elbow discomfort even though he’s far enough removed from TJ surgery to expect him to contribute this season. Yesavage will be limited. This is why Cease and Ponce were such important signings and why it made sense to bring back Scherzer, even if he’s unlikely to give them more than 25 starts. Gausman, Cease, and Ponce should be able to pitch 180+ innings and they might have to for the Jays. The challenge for MLB teams is now managing the roster the best way possible by utilizing the IL and AAA to preserve the depth.

Mark: Was Jackson Merrill’s rookie season as good as it’s going to get for him?

Jon Becker: I think he’s too talented on both sides of the ball for 5.3 WAR at age 21 to be the ceiling for him, even though that’s a season most players could only dream of having. Even with the missed time due to injuries that may well have affected him when he did play, too, he was worth 3.0 WAR in 115 games. Merrill getting back into the 130+ range of wRC+ makes that lineup look quite a bit better.

Drew: Ryan Bergerts chances of getting a spot in the Royals rotation?

Jason Martinez: If the battle for the No. 5 spot came down to Spring Training performance, Bergert likely has a slight edge over Noah Cameron. But Cameron pitched 170 innings in 2025 vs Bergert’s 120 innings. And Bergert had some elbow discomfort late in the season. So my guess is that Cameron is the guy they’d rather start in the majors and that would allow them to ease Bergert in a bit down in AAA.

Doc Estes: I see you project Dom Smith for strong side of the Atlanta DH platoon.  You feel fairly certain on that?  Other ways it could go?

Jon Becker: Smith’s been hitting really well but I don’t think we’re particularly certain on it. Ben Gamel is another player who’s hitting great in camp and has the added benefit of being better in the OF than Smith would be if the Braves ever had to put him out there. There are also a bunch of NRIs who won’t make rosters who the Braves could pick up before Opening Day.

Mark: What are your thoughts on Saggese?   Any path to regular at-bats?

Jason Martinez: Path to regular at-bats isn’t there, barring an injury to one of the infielders (Wetherholt, Winn, Gorman). I have him on the projected bench for now, but might make more sense to give the spot to Nelson Velazquez and give Saggese everyday at-bats in AAA where he can continue to get reps in the OF. Super-utilityman might be his best bet with STL. Maybe he gets a shot at 3B if Gorman struggles badly but that won’t happen anytime soon. I think Wetherholt will be fine — the hit tool is really good — but we also can’t assume that with any prospect.

Ozzie: Has there been any talk of Leo De Vries making the opening day roster? Or is that not a possibility?

Jon Becker: No chance, unfortunately. He’s been awesome but a lot of it is coming into games halfway through and facing pitchers he’ll be facing in Double-A anyway. He certainly hastens his path to MLB if he keeps hitting like this, though.

DJ: Are there any teams currently projected for a 5-man rotation that you think have a chance to operate with a 6-man rotation this season?

Jason Martinez: My guess is that no team will have a permanent 6-man rotation but just about every team will utilize a spot-starter occasionally to push everyone back a day and then go with 6 starters whenever there is a long stretch with 0 or maybe 1 off-day. It’s a long season and not too many teams have a Logan Webb/Dylan Cease type pitcher who will give them 32+ starts.

I haven’t looked at every schedule yet, but it does seem like most teams have a couple days off early and then will have a stretch beginning around mid-April when they will have maybe 1 day off over a 15-20 day span. Expect a lot of strategic roster moves based on that.

Luke Raley: Will he get enough playing time to get back to the level where he was a couple years go? (Presuming he is capable of doing so?)

Jon Becker: I think so. I remember being bearish on his chances of getting significant playing time when someone asked me in a chat before Spring Training if he would, so: mea culpa! They’re trending towards Raley/Robles and Canzone/Refsnyder platoons with Robles struggling this spring, but ultimately any of the four could earn/lose playing time depending on how they perform; RF/DH is going to be a meritocracy in Seattle.

PunkRockies: It looks increasingly like TJ Rumfield will win the Rockies 1st base job, though RR has Johnston (which I would have thought too before ST). Who is the odd man out assuming this comes to pass? I’ve got to think Crim is not making this roster since Johnston can play OF too.

Jason Martinez: I don’t think there is any separation between Johnston and Rumfield based on the small sample ST performance. Both have been good so neither has eliminated himself from the competition. But Johnston has MLB experience and he’s already on the 40-man. I think it comes down to that, meaning Johnston will get first crack and then Rumfield will get his chance at some point. There’s also a chance that Julien plays more 1B than 2B, which would open more at-bats for someone like Ritter or Karros.

Crim hasn’t played in a while due to an oblique injury so the obvious platoon vs LHP might begin the season on the IL.

Ozzie: Is Vientos going to make the Opening Day roster? What role will he play if yes?

Jon Becker: Well, he’s going to make someone’s Opening Day roster, just can’t be totally sure it’ll be the Mets. He’s out of options and far too talented to sneak through waivers, but his role with the Mets would be fairly limited to 3B/1B/DH against LHP, and sending Vientos elsewhere would allow the Mets to more easily do something like roster both Tauchman and Benge, if they wanted. As long as the Rockies are coming up I’ll throw them out there as a possible fit, and he’d get a lot more playing time there.

DOOBS: When Kim comes back to play SS, will the Braves dump Dubon in LF?

Jason Martinez: Once Kim returns from the IL and assuming everyone else is healthy, I think they’ll be able to start Dubon 3-5 days per week and presumably would be at a different position on most days. Facing a LHP, I’d think he’d play CF or LF. But he could also spell anyone else at any position besides C and P. Weiss has already made a point to say he wants to rest his regulars more than they have been in the past.

Ozzie: Is Chase Burns a lock to make the starting rotation to begin the year?

Jon Becker: Not technically with Brandon Williamson still in camp, but I’d be pretty surprised if it wasn’t Lowder and Burns getting those last two spots with Greene out. Lowder is more of a lock than Burns just because he’s pitched better but Burns’ stuff is just too good to leave off, IMO, and I’m not going to read too much into getting hit around in thin Arizona air.

Brownpants: If Victor Robles’ shoulder is still bothering him by Opening Day, who replaces him on the roster? Brennen Davis exit velos have been a fun story this spring but I feel like they’d want a better glove in Robles’ spot

Jason Martinez: Sounds like Robles is on track for Opening Day, although we won’t know for sure until he’s playing in the OF again. I think he’s DH’d the last 2 days. As far as next in line, they have guys like Connor Joe and Patrick Wisdom if they want some MLB experience. But Davis has put himself in the conversation and, without knowing too much about his defense, I’m assuming he’s a better option than either Wisdom or Joe as a RHH off the bench because he’s an OF. Joe and Wisdom are more versatile but not necessarily good at any spot.

Ozzie: Sal Stewart has been getting some reps at 2B in Spring Training. Do you think the Reds will actually use him there during the season? Or are you expecting starts strictly at 1B?

Jon Becker: My guess is it’ll be fairly rare, but it’ll happen. Francona has talked a lot about how it’s great that Elly wants to play every day but they also don’t want to be quite as acquiescing to his refusal to take a day off, like he did playing through the quad injury last year. So the question becomes who plays second when Elly gets a rare day off and McLain slides to short, and it seems like Stewart and Steer are the top two options.

engulfed11: With SD SP woes, it looks like Walker Buehler is in line for the 5th starter role. Whatdayathink?

Jason Martinez: Probably. Really does sound like they’re going to push Joe Musgrove back a bit. I think they have a number of starts in mind for him in 2026, including playoffs (I’d guess it’s in the 25-30 range), and it would be easier to start him on the IL rather than trying to figure it out mid-season. This would open the spot for Buehler. As long as he continues to look good in his next 2 starts, I think he’s in.

Current projection with Buehler as the SP5 and Musgrove projected IL … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/padres

Mike Tyson: designated hitter: Do you expect Mcgonigle to be starting at 3B in 2026?

Jon Becker: Maybe only occasionally, unless the Tigers get very unlucky with injuries. I know he’s getting some time over there this spring so it’s possible they like the look of McGonigle at 3B and McKinstry or Báez at SS sometimes, but the Tigers also said they want Keith to focus on 3B for right now (a lot of position switching for him in his career!).

Pete: Who is a rookie who may miss opening day but could come up in late April/May and win me my fantasy league like Kurtz did last year?

Jason Martinez: This is the best place to start. On the Opening Day tracker, filter “not on projected roster/still in camp” and then sort by projected PA or IP … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/opening-day-tracker?status=n…

You’ll see guys like Konnor Griffin, Carson Williams, and Colt Emerson near the top and many others who could stand out to you.

Ozzie: Will River Ryan start the year in the Dodger’s rotation?

Jon Becker: We currently have Sheehan projected over him for that last open spot, since Roberts all but guaranteed Sasaki will indeed open the season in the rotation. If they do go to six, though, I’d think Ryan would be the front-runner. But it doesn’t hurt to stretch him out a little more in the minors, I believe he’s still yet to go three innings.

Guest: do you see some of these undeclared closer situations beginning to resolve themselves yet?

Jason Martinez: Not really. There are a lot of unresolved situations … LAA, SFG, WSN, ARI, ATH, STL, etc. … and there hasn’t been enough time for guys to pitch themselves in or out of the competition. Only recent change I’ve made has been expanding STL to include Svanson and Stanek but that’s more because O’Brien has been hurt.

There have been indications that a few managers want to go with a primary closer. But many will just be day-to-day, series-to-series, week-to-week.

Matt: Hey Jon, any plans for a playing time adjustment article like you wrote last year? I loved those

Jon Becker: These will be back on RotoGraphs during the season! Need to align on when exactly I’ll be starting those but I’m glad to hear they were useful, it gives good insight into our process at RosterResource and how playing time projections can change even when the roster doesn’t.

Guest: when do you expect snelling to debut?

Jason Martinez: He’s in the “once we call him up, it’s likely for good” category. So I don’t expect them to force the issue. It could be sooner because of injuries/ineffectiveness of guys like Paddack or Garrett, but I’d guess he’s up by late May/early June regardless.

claymolly: minny rotation? are you an Abell fan?

Jon Becker: Bradley and Abel have both been awesome so they’re definitely in the lead for SP4-5 with Ryan, Ober, and Woods Richardson (since he’s out of options) filling the top three spots. Festa’s starting on the IL and Zebby has been bad so it currently looks like two really easy decisions.

Ozzie: How is Carson Williams looking in his position battle? Is he destined for AAA to start the year?

Jason Martinez: No surpise that Williams is putting up good numbers in ST. He’ll do the same in AAA. He’s super talented. TBD on whether he’s ready to handle good MLB pitching on a regular basis. That’s why I think they’ll go with a combo of Taylor Walls/Ben Williamson to begin the season rather than giving the everyday job to Williams after he struggled badly in his 1st MLB stint. They trust Walls and Williamson is also a very intriguing option at one of the infield spots. Finding out if he can handle SS will be important.

MF Luder: Does the Teel injury lock in starts for Edgar Quero?

Jon Becker: Yep. I think he would’ve started plenty behind the plate with Teel healthy but now that Teel will miss the start of the season it should be a pretty traditional starter-backup arrangement with Quero and Korey Lee. How Lee does in the meantime determines if they think they can make three catchers work when Teel is back, since Lee is out of options.

Mike D: Do you think Kyle Karros can win the 3B job by opening day?

Jason Martinez: Injuries can change things, of course, but I think the plan is to give him some time in AAA. He was there for less than a month before getting the call to the majors. And then, unsurprisingly, he struggled. I think they like him and will happily give him the 3B job at some point in 2026 if he hits in AAA (and, more importantly, continues to have good BB/K rate).

Steve: Juan Soto put up 36.5 WAR thru age 25, then got 15/765 in the year 2025 as a bad corner outfielder. Let’s say Jesus Made puts up 35 WAR thru age 25 then hits FA in 2033 as plus defensive SS…would $1B maybe be in play between inflation and defensive value?

Jon Becker: Ooh, this is an interesting one. I think it depends on the shape/distribution of that 35 WAR. For example, if his walk year is “only” 4 WAR, or his WAR is propped up by defense, teams are going to be wary. It’s not to say you can’t still be a great defender into your 30s but potential suitors are going to factor a projected fielding decline differently than a projected hitting decline. $1B is one of those “I’ll believe it when I see it” numbers but from an inflationary standpoint it’s not impossible, 2033 is still a ways away!

Pat Murphy: What should I do with Tyler Black? Dude is crushing it this spring.

Jason Martinez: Tell him he’s done everything possible to make the team, but, unfortunately, they already have a guy (Jake Bauers) locked into the role he’s competing for. Go down to AAA and continue doing what you’re doing, work on defensive versatility, and your time will come no later than 2027.

Camden Bird Watcher: German Marquez finally healthy, finally out of Rockies stadium & org.  What level of confidence to you have that he makes good on his one-year make good contract?

Jon Becker: It doesn’t take a lot to make a $1.75M contract worth it, for Márquez I think the basic criteria are just “stay healthy enough and keep us in enough games.” Can’t do a whole lot better than moving from Coors and the old Rockies regime to Petco and Ruben Niebla.

Baseball learner: If he is “healthy” how many games do you think Stanton plays?

Jason Martinez: Somewhere between 350-450 PA. That would include plenty of days off and maybe 2-4 weeks on the IL to give the elbows some rest. That might be best-case scenario, which is fine as long as he can still hit. I believe a healthy Stanton can still be an impact bat.

The Actor for Al Pacino: Littell is finally signed. Is Giolito soon to follow?

Jon Becker: Well… he basically has to be, right? The ship has probably sailed on being ready for the season but a team could very easily IL him for something nebulous (he did have that elbow issue at the end of last season) and slot him in in mid-April.

DJ: With Quinn Priester and Logan Henderson both facing uncertain injury concerns who was under consideration for the Brewers 5th starter spot? Brandon Sproat holds that spot currently in your roster projection.

Jason Martinez: Sounds like Ashby is a real consideration, although that might look more like a bullpen game. Not sure they’re stretching him out to 4 or 5+ innings. And that would signal a very temporary void in the SP5 spot.

But if they don’t go that route, it’s coming down to Harrison, Sproat, Gasser, and Drohan for 2 spots.

Zac Veen: Will I lead the Rockies out of the NL West cellar?

Jon Becker: Not this year (and 2027 doesn’t look better for the Rockies, either)! But it’s been cool to see you perform well this Spring and while Opening Day seems unlikely, you could make an impact at some point this season.

War2D2: BP ran an article about Ben Brown’s new sinker, and closed with a line saying he has a #2 starter’s ceiling. The knock on him was always that he needed another pitch, though a sinker (that’s 2MPH faster than his already hard 4-seam) seems like an odd addition. What do you make of it? Do you think he ever puts it together, or is he just 2026 Darren Dreifort?

Equist: Where do you think Ben Brown ends up this year, up and down, or with the big club?

Jason Martinez: The uncertainty of whether he can develop into an effective SP and where he currently stands on the SP depth chart (probably SP7) makes it likely that he begins in the AAA rotation, keeping him stretched out just in case he’s needed and also evaluating where he fits in their long-term pitching plans. Once Justin Steele returns, and assuming their rotation is in good health, I think there is a good chance they unleash him out of the ‘pen and he’s one of their top setup man down the stretch. And then SP vs RP will be determined next offseason.

bob: saw that note tied to marcelo mayer about cora not committing to him being on the opening day roster. that’s insane, right? they’re not going to hand 2B or 3B to IKF and send mayer down, are they?

Jon Becker: The read I get on it is that it was just Cora motivating Mayer and not wanting him to act like he’s got a spot locked up upon arrival into camp, and he’s playing like he deserves a spot. IKF and Monasterio make way more sense as utility guys playing all over (and a lot against lefties) than they do as starters.

Guest: to jason’s answer on the closers, which of those managers have said they prefer a dedicated closer? even if that rp hasn’t been named yet?

Jason Martinez: I don’t remember off the top of my head, but that’s because it might’ve been a beat writer suggesting that’s what was expected from that particular manager. And based on the last several years, it’s more likely that a manager will be non-committal either way and we’ll just have to pay close attention once the season starts. It’s my job to pay close attention and make adjustments. Just know that I do take that seriously and I care about getting those as accurate as possible.

shaunypatinthehat: What do you guys think is really happening in Atlanta? The lip service from Alex feels more like state media statements, they clearly have needs but have spent $0 of note since losing Schwellly/Profar/Waldrep/Wentz

Jon Becker: I think they should absolutely be in on Giolito if they’re not already, but the problem that they’ve got is that adding Giolito likely makes them better, but it’s a net-zero in terms of depth. Signing Giolito makes it harder to keep Elder, who hasn’t been good the last couple years but at least eats innings, since Elder is out of options. I would probably just go with the better pitcher and worry about the depth more later, but it’s possible the Braves don’t think that’s worth $10M or whatever Giolito would cost at this point. As for the offense, they’re just going to have to wait for guys to get healthy and/or for the end of spring training to make a trade. By the time Profar got suspended, there was hardly anyone left out there to sign.

Crabcakes: Depth Charts thinks Jordan Westburg is gonna play 100 games with his partially torn UCL.  That feels very optimistic to me.  I would have guessed something like… returns in June, plays about a month, it goes very poorly, he gets surgery by August.  Opinions?

Jason Martinez: It’s definitely not a bad approach for how you interpret these types of injuries. But I try to find the right balance between what a player says, what the team is saying, and having a very bleak attitude because of how these injuries usually end up.

For example, Berrios is missing a start due to elbow inflammation. That sounds bad but the initial report says it’s different than last year, it’s not a big deal, and he won’t be shut down from throwing. I’m not going to overreact. His projection already takes into account that the elbow injury could affect him again. I might drop him another few starts in the projections. But, as a reader, it’s smart to at least understand that it could be a lot worse than what the projection is showing. It’s just more of a gradual decrease in projections with these types of injuries rather than assuming that it’s going to be a worst-case scenario.

Jason Martinez: That will do it for today. Thanks for joining us! We’ll be back next Thursday.