Sean Coyle And the Unfair Dustin Pedroia Comps

Boston Red Sox minor league second baseman Sean Coyle is a solid minor league prospect which is actually pretty rare for a player of his stature. In fact, in three years spent Scouting the Sally, only a handful of prospects have been worthy of more than a cursory look (Jose Altuve – HOU, Leury Garcia – TEX, Wilfredo Tovar – NYM) which speaks volumes about Coyle as a baseball player. However, as kind as it may seem on the surface to compare the best second baseman in the Red Sox system to the best second baseman in baseball – organization mate Dustin Pedroia – it’s pretty unfair to both players.

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At first glance, the initial reaction of a contact I spoke to about Coyle was, “the Red Sox paid 1.3 million? Really?” But after seeing a number of games his skill set grew on the scout to the point where he acknowledged Coyle’s ceiling as a regular at the big league level. In witnessing similar, a few aspects of Coyle’s all-around game stuck out and deserve mention.

In batting practice, Coyle arguably displayed the most power of any player on the roster (including power hitting prospect Brandon Jacobs). This was also seconded by a scout who was shocked at Coyle’s ability to drive the baseball. When scouting Coyle, he didn’t barrel any balls of note in game action, but I can certainly second his uncanny batting practice power as he belted numerous line drives over the left-centerfield wall onto the patio beyond the fence.

Looking back at his 2011 numbers, Coyle’s strikeout percentage stands out considering his ability to control the strike zone. Coyle rarely swung at balls outside the zone and displayed a short, quick stroke. However, he fouled a number of balls straight back – especially pitches at the letters – and swung-and-missed too often. While statistics at the lower levels rarely tell the story of a prospect, Coyle’s combination of a high walk rate, surprising pop for his size and slightly concerning strikeout totals frame his game quite well.

On defense, Coyle turned an excellent double play behind a lightning quick transfer and release while maintaining his arm strength. On routine plays, he showed soft hands and fluid movements, but his range left little doubt as to why he was moved across the diamond from shortstop after being drafted. Additionally, his throws were erratic due to what I perceived as an inconsistent release point. On one play he fielded a ball to his left, turned and fired a throw at the first baseman’s shoe tops nearly causing an error. When a simple flip is in order, a throw like the one described tends to stick out as an awkward moment and this one certainly did.

With 20 stolen bases in 26 attempts, Coyle has above average speed, but his lower half thickness indicates room for growth. This is likely to slow him down at full maturity leaving him an average runner. However, Coyle should be able to maximize the speed he does have utilizing his high baseball IQ and maintains the potential for double-digit steals at the big league level.

Like any other low level prospect, Coyle has strengths and weaknesses which need to be ironed out as he continues to advance levels and develop as a prospect. And while it’s difficult to visualize Coyle having a great deal of projection left based on his size, he’s the baseball equivalent of a “gym rat” which leaves me confident in his ability to maximize the tools he does have.

Coyle’s prospect status going forward depends on how he is framed in prospect circles. If judged fairly, he’s a solid second base prospect with a solid, but unspectacular all-around game who projects to provide return on on the organization’s investment. In the South Atlantic league, that’s about all an organization can hope for.

Throw out a Dustin Pedroia comp and Coyle is destined to fall short of those phenomenally lofty expectations. Red Sox Sean Coyle is the epitome of why prospect writers avoid comps like the plague and find it an exercise in futility. Quite often, they wind up doing more harm than good when framing the conversation about a prospect.