Emerson had a loud introduction to pro ball in 2023, as he and the Mariners’ other high school draftees from that year’s class played well in Modesto. His 2024 was more muted, in part because Emerson missed significant time with a foot fracture during the regular season (and looked slower on defense when he returned), and then was shut down during his Arizona Fall League stint (he raked there while healthy) because of a strained hammy. He broke 2025 camp with High-A Everett and, same as he did there in 2024, Emerson is struggling to hit for meaningful power even though his home park is a hitter’s haven.

Before I get into why this seems to be the case, let’s talk about what Emerson does well. His hitting hands are lovely and explosive, and work in an aesthetically pleasing loop. The mid-flight adjustments he makes to secondary stuff are fantastic, and the bat speed Emerson has through his wheelhouse is at least plus. Much of his underlying data performance has also been strong; he posted an 87% in-zone contact rate in 2024 and has a plus in-zone rate so far in 2025, and his peak measurable power (he’s hit a ball 115 mph already this year, though it was on the ground) and bat speed (measured during 2025 big league spring training games) are approaching a 70 on the scale, especially for Emerson’s age.

So why then isn’t Emerson hitting for power? As sexy as his hands are, his bat path is long and really only explosive when he’s cutting through the bottom two thirds of the zone. Opposing pitchers can get him to swing underneath elevated fastballs, and can neuter his contact quality by locating pitches down and away from him. This has been evident to the eye for the last couple of seasons, but not really on paper. Emerson can’t turn on fastballs at all right now; every airborne ball in play of his versus heaters is shot down the left field line. It takes him too long to get on plane with fastballs in a way that allows him to do damage, and he drives them into the ground most of the time. His average launch angle as of list publication is one degree, while his groundball rate is up over 50%. None of this means that Emerson is bad, it just means he’s not a fully actualized threat as a power hitter right now.

All that said, I think Emerson looks better overall compared to 2024 because of his defense. Last year, he looked like a better future fit at either second or third base, with the caveat that his return from a fractured foot and the tightness that lead to his hamstring strain might have been why. That seems to have been the case, as Emerson’s range has been much better in 2025. He’s shown an ability to round on balls hit to his right and make athletic throws across his body. His arm is only okay for a shortstop, but I’m more confident now that he’ll be able to stay there than I was at the end of 2024. Emerson is still tracking like an eventual everyday shortstop, but the power actualization that would lead to stardom is going to require adjustments.

Young managed to slash .271/.369/.390 at Double-A Arkansas in 2024 even though it’s a pitcher-friendly environment and he was dealing with a nagging wrist issue, which cropped up again in his first and only 2024 Fall League game. His underlying exit velos from last year were pretty underwhelming, but they were still just shy of the average among big league shortstops (his contact rates are comfortably above) and were probably impacted by his wrist. In 2025, he has indeed rebounded: He had a 106 mph max exit velocity and 33% hard-hit rate in 2024 compared to a 109 max and 45% hard-hit at the time he was called up to Seattle for the first time.

Young requires a good bit of effort to swing hard (he and the Mariners made changes to his mechanics in 2023, and Young kept hitting without missing a beat), which impacts his barrel accuracy at times, but for the most part, he’s adept at moving his hands around to make well-struck, all-fields contact. He’s tracking as a plus contact hitter with what appears to be average raw power now that he’s healthy. For a viable middle infielder, that’s an exciting combo.

Young does enough on defense to project as a viable shortstop but not a great one. His hands and exchange are sound, and he stays poised when chaos and caroms force him to improvise, but his arm strength and range are on the fringe on what’s permissible there. He’s a 45-grade glove at short, but he’s plus at second base, where his best attributes are more in line with the demands of the position. Young looks like he’s going to provide a stable long-term answer at second base and then potentially shortstop in the event that J.P. Crawford leaves in free agency after the 2026 season.

Some of Ford’s dip in surface level production in 2024 (he slashed .249/.377/.367 after slugging at least .430 at each previous level) can be attributed to the change in hitting environment from Seattle’s low-level affiliates (which inflate offense) to Double-A Arkansas (which suppresses it), but some of it appears to have been a temporary regression in his physical tools. Ford has always had a relatively grooved swing and struggled to get on top of elevated fastballs, but especially late in 2024, his bat speed looked like it had backed up quite a bit. It was also the second consecutive season in which his underlying power data (his peak exit velos and hard-hit rate) was a tad shy of the big league average. It began to look like Ford’s plate discipline would be his only plus offensive trait. Instead, he has rebounded in the first half of 2025. He no longer has a stark, easily recognizable pattern of whiffs against elevated fastballs, though his contact rates (overall, and both inside and outside the zone) have returned to career norms after a hot start. The mechanics of Ford’s swing haven’t changed so much as his cadence and timing mechanisms have. His footwork in the box is starting sooner than last year and has been more consistently on time. He looks more fluid and explosive through contact compared to 2024, especially at the end.

Ford also does a lot of good stuff on defense and adds value on the bases with his speed. There seemed to be some experimentation happening with his throwing toward the end of the 2024 season. He’d more often cut it loose from his knees, and his 2024 caught stealing rate of 19% is worse than what one would hope for a guy with Ford’s arm strength, but visually, he seemed fine. He’s not an especially accurate thrower, but he’ll post sub-1.8 pop times at peak and he’s becoming a better ball-blocker. He sometimes tips that a breaking ball is coming by lowering his one-kneed stance down toward the ground a little too early, and he stays in the higher crouch when a fastball or changeup is coming, which arguably tips in the other direction. Ford is also a worse ball-blocker from that position. He’s evolving back there, and has the athleticism and seemingly the aptitude to continue doing so. He’s still not the best receiver and pitch framer, but Ford does enough other stuff at a very high level to be an above-average catcher.

The presence of Cal Raleigh at the big league level would make it tough for any catching prospect to break through in Seattle, so Ford played eight games in left field last year. He looked pretty good out there given his relative inexperience, but hasn’t seen time there in 2025. Readers might recall that there were scouts who thought teenage Ford, who stole 35 bases in 44 attempts in 2024, had the speed to be developed in center field, but with Julio Rodríguez patrolling the middle pasture, it probably isn’t necessary for the M’s to try him there. He may be trade fodder, and potentially another franchise’s primary catcher within the next two or three years. His roughly average hit/power combination is bolstered by plus plate discipline, giving Ford a sufficient offensive profile to be one.

What if Pat Venditte sat 95? We might learn the answer if Cijntje (pronounced SAIN-ja) is allowed to continue developing as a switch-pitcher. Cijntje is naturally left-handed but began throwing right-handed in elementary school, and he was switch-pitching by the time he was on the 2016 Curaçao LLWS team. He was a second round prospect in high school and was drafted by Milwaukee (who announced him as a shortstop), but he went to Mississippi State rather than sign. There Cijntje’s velocity grew from the right side, though not so much from the left. He threw his last college left-handed pitch on May 4 of his sophomore year, then pitched righty the rest of the 2024 season, no matter the matchup.

He’s again working left-handed at times so far as a pro, and has the look of a specialist from that side, sitting in the low 90s with natural cut and struggling to locate his slider. As a righty, he’s sitting in the mid-90s and has been up to 99; he also has a potential plus changeup from that side, and has added a sweeper since joining the Mariners. Continued growth for his secondary stuff seems feasible because he’s had fewer reps (from both sides) than any other pitcher with the same number of innings, and Cijntje’s amateur changeup usage was limited because he was more often facing same-sided hitters. At its best, the change has power action in the 87-90 mph range like Ronel Blanco‘s cambio. The rise/run action on Cijntje’s righty fastball creates bat-missing tail in the high/arm-side quadrant of the zone.

There’s a chance Cijntje ends up only pitching right-handed. He has a robust repertoire from that side, including the tools to deal with left-handed batters. Perhaps more likely than mid-game switching, he could start as a righty and then could be used as a lefty specialist between starts so that his right arm can have a more normal recovery. It looked like this might be how the Mariners were going to play things at the start of the 2025 season, but he has returned to occasionally working left-handed within games he’s starting righty. He has mid-rotation projection as a righty, and his overall profile is seasoned by the unique nature of his switch-pitching background, as well as his potential to keep doing it.

Farmelo had the second-fastest 30-yard dash at the 2023 Draft Combine and showed impressive BP power, but his swing was a bit of a mess and seemed to change constantly throughout his high school career. I was relatively low on him prior to the draft, but the Mariners made his swing better pretty quickly after he signed. Farmelo looked good during backfield activity and then during Modesto’s 2023 postseason run. Assigned to Modesto again in 2024, Farmelo was slashing .264/.398/.421 across 221 plate appearances when he blew his ACL while making a slightly awkward catch in the outfield. He returned early in 2025 and was assigned to Everett, where his surface stats have been great (his OPS is a shade over .950 as of this June update) even though he’s striking out at a 30% clip.

Farmelo is much more talented than he is polished. He looks tentative in center field right now, either because he’s still working back into peak athletic form and/or bodily confidence coming off the ACL tear (which would be totally reasonable), or because he’s rusty and underdeveloped from the developmental time he’s lost. This is a bullish projection on Farmelo’s center field fit purely because of his speed, which was exceptional prior to the injury. Similar grace can be given to Farmelo’s hitting. He can create big power in a short mechanical distance at the dish and and consistently pulls the ball with power, including fastballs. He’s swinging over the top of a ton of sliders right now and looks, at this snapshot in time, like his swing is grooved through the top of the zone. Farmelo is raw, but he also has less than half a season of pro plate appearances under his belt. This is a high-risk/high-variance prospect with honest to goodness five tool potential.

The early portion of Celesten’s career was defined by injury. He suffered a hamstring tear before the 2023 DSL season began, an injury that basically cost him the entire season except for a couple of games in Arizona during Fall Instructional League. Then his 2024 season was cut short when a slide aggravated a wrist issue that had been bothering Celesten on and off for a while. He had surgery and ended 2024 having played in just 32 actual games as a pro. In that small sample, he slashed an amazing .352/.431/.568 and produced a 48% hard-hit rate even though his wrist was hurting. He isn’t consistently striking the baseball quite that hard in 2025, but he’s still producing good power for his age. Celesten’s physicality stands out immediately and would stand out in a big league clubhouse. He probably weighs 15 or 20 pounds more than when he signed, and every bit of it is muscle; his shoulders look like he stuffed grapefruits up his sleeves. This allows him to make a remarkable amount of hard contact with an easy, low-effort swing.

Celesten’s left-handed swing has a beautifully balanced leg kick that takes advantage of his athleticism without getting out of control. His load from that side is pretty aggressive and deep, with the head of the bat tilted toward the pitcher as he prepares to unwind. You can see in the way Celesten’s lower body, hips, and wrists rotate throughout his swing that this is a pretty special and powerful athlete, but also that he’s an inexperienced hitter who is still trying to get a feel for his body. His swing is currently geared for low-ball contact, and he’s going to be tested by belt-high fastballs as he climbs further up the full-season ladder, but if this guy ever learns how to alter the posture of his body as a means of covering the top of the zone so that his hands can continue to work with their natural loft, he’s going to be a problem. His right-handed swing is nowhere near as authoritative and is often late, but you can see the athletic elements of his cut from that side, too. He has a 75% contact rate from the left side as of list publication and a 69% rate from the right side.

The same principles apply to Celesten’s defense. He’s very rough around the edges but is clearly a special athlete who has a chance to polish his feet, actions, and arm accuracy enough to remain at shortstop. He’s erratic and at times appears rushed by the pace of full season ball, which isn’t remotely shocking given his age and the dev reps he has missed due to injury. This is one of the more extreme high-variance prospects in baseball. There are outcomes where Celesten gets immensely strong and gives the Mariners a mulligan for the Ketel Marte trade. There are also versions where he stays at short but doesn’t really develop as a contact hitter, and becomes more of a second-division regular. The potential outcomes here run the gamut. Celesten will turn 20 later this year and looks more likely to be a slow-burning prospect who adheres to his chalk 40-man timeline, which puts him on pace for a 2028 or 2029 debut.

Montes, who signed for $2.5 million in 2022, has posted absurd lower-level performance and slashed .288/.397/.484 combined between the Cal and Northwest Leagues in 2024. Most notable last year was Montes’ conditioning. In 2023, it looked like he had already maxed out and might quickly enter DH-only athletic territory, but starting last season and continuing into 2025, Montes looks svelte and considerably more mobile than before. If he can play an actual position, it will take some pressure off his bat. His feel for playing the outfield — his reads, routes, and ball skills — is still pretty bad, but he runs well enough to be developed out there, and his arm is a cozy fit in right.

The most curious thing about Montes’ physical transformation is that it initially coincided with a bit of a downtick in his measured power. Both his hard-hit rate (43% in 2023 compared to 35% in 2024) and the average of his hardest 10% of balls in play (106 mph to 104 mph) dropped to marks below the big league average, which was of concern for a prospect in RF/DH territory on defense, and for a guy who strikes out a good bit. His power has rebounded in a big way in 2025, as Montes entered June with a 48% hard-hit rate and 107 mph EV90. He is still striking out a ton at a shade under 27% as of list publication, and he’s swinging and missing as often as he puts balls in play, which is usually a benchmark for worry. Montes’ low-ball swing is long and makes him late covering elevated fastballs. He’s going to need to shorten up as he matures to improve his contact ability, which can be difficult for hitters this size with levers this long. There are only a handful of well-worn big league hitters since 2020 who have in-zone contact rates as low as Laz’s 75% mark, and they’re players like Bobby Dalbec, Christopher Morel, Patrick Wisdom 위즈덤, Nolan Gorman, and Luke Voit. You can absolutely have a meaningful big league career while whiffing this much provided you have enough power (Montes does), but this many K’s almost always makes you a volatile year-to-year performer; many of these hitters have one- or two-year peaks rather than sustained output on par with what reasonable people would call an average everyday player.

The defensive piece of the evaluation is an important component here, too. Montes is akin to a lefty-hitting Franmil Reyes, though I think it’s fair to anticipate a long athletic shelf life for him because of what he’s worked to accomplish from a strength and conditioning standpoint.

Sloan was one of the more exciting high school pitching prospects in the 2024 draft, ranking 28th in the class on draft day. The Mariners gave him a $3 million bonus in the second round and then pivoted to the draft’s best seniors to balance their bonus pool budget. Sloan looked awesome (if sometimes erratic) during the spring of 2025 and was sent straight to Modesto, where he’s had a fantastic first two months of the season working about four innings per outing.

Sloan is a powerful athlete, albeit a physically mature one for his age, with an explosive and somewhat violent delivery that has a chance to yield three plus pitches. Sloan was up to 98 during his senior spring after sitting 91-93 the summer before, and he was also throwing a harder breaking ball. He’s sustained that velo spike into his first pro season and has been sitting 94-97 in these short-ish outings, albeit with below-average life. His slider has vicious two-plane movement, bites very late in flight, and has a shot to be a 70-grade pitch at maturity. I thought prior to the draft that Sloan’s longer arm swing might make changeup development challenging, but he’s developing a really great splitter (hovering around the 1,000 rpm mark) that at times has slider shape and should also be a plus pitch at peak. His arm stroke is fairly long and a little bit stiff, which is basically the lone blemish on an otherwise very exciting mid-rotation profile. Sloan has a good shot to be elevated into the 50 FV tier once he proves that he can sustain this stuff for six-ish innings in a single start and across 100-ish innings of the whole 2025 season.

Peete continues to make a successful transition from the infield, where his throwing accuracy was prohibitive, to center, where he began getting regular part-time reps in the middle of the 2024 season. It’s not as if Peete instantly became Kevin Kiermaier out there, but his first step and range were surprisingly good, and he’s capable of some incredible athletic feats around the wall and in the gaps. Like Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Peete has taken some of his infielder skills out there with him, and his exchange on throws is uncommonly quick for an outfielder. Unsurprisingly, his routes need some polish, but Peete is already much better in the outfield than he was at shortstop, and he has a chance to be a plus defender out there at peak if he can remain fast enough, which might be challenging at his size.

I thought Peete would break out in 2024 because of his immense frame-driven power potential, but his feel to hit is still quite undercooked. He posted a 67% contact rate in 2024, and it’s in that area again in 2025; he’ll often swing through pitches in the meat of the zone. That said, there are still things Peete is doing on offense that are not only encouraging, but exciting. For a hitter his size (he’s built like an SEC wide receiver at a strapping, projectable 6-foot-2), he’s often on time to pull the ball with power, including fastballs. It’s kind of amazing how often he’s able to snatch pitches riding in on his hands, and he’s shown glimpses of being able to bend at the waist or knees to cover low pitches with power. He’s still growing into his body and should add more raw juice as he matures, and he projects to have 25-homer raw power. Whether he’ll hit enough to get to that power is unclear. It’s more likely that he turns into a lefty-hitting version of Jose Siri or Trayce Thompson where he has one or two big seasons rather than becoming a consistent year-to-year force.

Evans spent half his college career at Penn State and half at Pitt, where he wasn’t especially good. He had a career 6.78 ERA in college, but his athleticism and ability to spin a breaking ball made him an interesting developmental Day Three pick. He quickly had a velo spike under the tutelage of the Mariners dev group and was in the 94-97 mph range during the early part of 2024, then backed into the 93-94 mph range for the bulk of the year and so far in 2025.

Evans has begun to take a sweeper-first approach to pitching, especially against lefties. As of list publication, he’s throwing 59% breaking balls in 2025. It makes sense, as his sweeper is easily his best pitch, spins in at 2,800 rpm, and has hellacious lateral wipe. His reliance on it robs it of some bat-missing ability, and the last couple of years, the miss rate on Evans’ slider has been pretty average because he’s so often trying to throw it for strikes and hitters anticipate its arrival. But because Evans’ fastball is fairly vulnerable, he’s forced to lean on his breaking stuff. His low-to-mid-90s sinker (sitting 93-94, up to 97) has only generated a 6% miss rate so far in 2025, and as of this writing, hitters have an OPS over 1.000 against his mix of sinkers and four-seamers (in the minors and majors combined). Evans can change pitch shape and speed off of his primary sinker/sweeper mix, and he functionally has six pitches. He’ll throw some harder cutters around 87 mph, as well as some slower curveballs and changeups, mostly to lefties.

Again, it’s really only the sweeper that’s plus, but Evans has a super deep repertoire, he throws a good rate of strikes and gets groundballs, and in 2024, he proved he could sustain this kind of stuff across more than 100 innings. Without a single pitch generating plus miss, he’s probably not going to be a star, but he does enough to be a useful member of a big league rotation in a no. 4/5 capacity.

Arroyo won’t turn 21 until the fall and has been one of the more productive hitters his age in all of minor league baseball for the past three seasons, with well-above-average performance at each level, including during the first half of 2025. His career OPS is approaching .900 as of this update, he has plus plate discipline and bat speed to go with roughly average big league raw power (which is impressive at age 20), and he’s on pace for his second consecutive 20-homer season in 2025.

Arroyo’s swing does give me pause. In some ways, it is deft and exciting, while in others, it looks flawed and exploitable in a meaningful way. He’s great at tucking in his hands and barreling pitches tailing toward his hands, belt, or knees, and he can adjust to offspeed stuff of this ilk as he identifies it. Where Arroyo struggles is with stuff cutting away from him, especially when it’s elevated. He can’t seem to get his bat there to spoil these pitches, and he’s inside a ton of elevated fastballs (provided they’re not finishing toward his hands), as well as a lot of sliders that finish on the plate. His in-zone swing-and-miss rate is a full standard deviation worse than the big league average, corroborating this visually identifiable issue. It’s possible Arroyo will hit for enough power in the zones where he does make contact to render my concerns in this area totally moot. In fact, if you want a swing comp for Arroyo, it’s Nick Castellanos. Their hands and bat paths work in almost exactly the same way, except Castellanos is much taller and longer-levered than Arroyo is, and yet he has been very good despite having similar swing competencies and limitations, though with worse plate discipline. Also of note is that unlike a lot of hitters who exhibit this sort of extreme inside-out batted ball tendency, Arroyo consistently lifts the baseball.

I don’t think Arroyo’s issues have been sufficiently tested by his opponents yet, and I’m not comfortable projecting him as a lock everyday second baseman and stuffing him in the 50 FV tier while he’s still in A-ball. Some of this has to do with Arroyo’s defense. He’s a below-average athlete with below-average range, hands, actions, and arm accuracy. Indeed, there’s a chance he can’t stay on the infield at all. This puts all the weight of his profile on his offense, which I believe to be a bit of a Jenga tower because of the issues he has with elevated heaters. This blurb is absolutely written in anticipation of readers’ expectations. I think Arroyo is a good prospect, I’m simply not willing to value him in Top 100 territory just yet, and want to see him handle better velo and pitch execution for a stretch at Double-A before re-evaluating. That might come during the second half of 2025.

As I sourced opinions from international scouting personnel in advance of the 2025 signing period, it seemed scouts generally liked Bautista more than his raw bonus would indicate, and he got a healthy $2.1 million in January. He’s a twitchy, medium-framed outfielder with explosive hitting hands and wrists, and a swing that has dangerous natural loft. Bautista’s hit tool was consistently lauded in the lead-up to his signing and he’s only just underway in the DSL; there’s no reason to alter his projection in this regard based on a week of performance. He lacks high-end physical projection and is of a more medium, fairly mature build, but he takes a really healthy hack for a player his size and looks comfortable and under control while doing it. Yorger has a good shot to remain in center field thanks to his speed. Bautista is a well-rounded center field prospect with a shot to do at least a little bit of everything and be an everyday player.

The Mariners gave Izzi $1.1 million in 2022 and brought him along relatively slowly during his first year and a half of pro ball; he threw 18.1 innings across nine regular season appearances in all of 2023. In 2024, the training wheels came off and Izzi pitched 110.2 innings at a full season affiliate. If we assume a fairly standard 20-inning annual uptick, he’s on pace to work 140 innings in 2026, his 40-man platform year.

Even though Izzi’s results to this point have only been fair (he’s struggled with walks), the fact that he held his velo throughout a huge innings increase in 2024 is a great sign. He is built and moves like most big league starting pitchers at a broad-shouldered 6-foot-3, and he projects as one. None of Izzi’s secondary pitches are plus right now, but his slider has good lateral movement for a pitch in the mid-80s and his changeup has at least average long-term projection based on the quality of his delivery and action. He still has room to fill out and add strength, though he need only do enough of that to maintain his current velo across more innings. More likely tracking like a no. 4/5 starter, Izzi has impact mid-rotation ceiling if he grows into more arm strength than I currently have projected. He’s on pace to debut in 2027 as one of the club’s spot starters, and then entrench himself toward the back of the rotation in 2028 and beyond.

Switch-hitters with Suisbel’s power don’t exactly grow on trees. His classic low-ball, golf-style lefty swing features big loft, bat speed, and power that plays from pole to pole. And it’s easy looking; Suisbel can casually swing in rhythm and still sizzle it with barely any effort, especially from the left side. His timing as a right-handed hitter isn’t nearly as consistent, but he still swings hard enough to crush hanging breaking balls and poke the occasional double down the right field line. He isn’t a skillful bat-to-ball guy from either side, but that’s normal for a switch-hitter this age. Plus, Suisbel signed in 2019, so his pro career didn’t get underway until 2021, and then he spent two years in the DSL.

Suisbel has gotten better pretty quickly during the last two seasons, and that also applies to his defense. Last list cycle, he was projected to first base, but he’s gotten better at third. He’s a big, broad-framed guy who compares to Austin Riley in terms of his physicality; it was not a lock for him to stay there. Improved conditioning has brought forth better bend and range, and Suisbel is a limber hip-and-shoulder athlete with an above-average arm and pretty throwing stroke. He isn’t the best decision-maker and needs general polish as a defender, but he’s an athletic fit at third and will at least be able to play there most of the time while moonlighting at first. There should be enough power here at peak for Suisbel to play an integral corner infield role.

Garcia spent three years at Quinnipiac before transferring to A&M to pitch out of their bullpen during his senior season. There Garcia had a velocity spike, which he carried into pro ball even as the Mariners tried to put him back in a rotation in 2024. He had an outstanding full-season debut as a starter, working 116 innings split between High- and Double-A and carrying a 2.25 ERA. He generated a ton of groundballs (53%) and had starter-quality strikeout and walk rates (27% K%, 9.5% BB%), especially for a guy who’d just returned to starting.

But realistically, Garcia’s delivery and feel for location were not on par with a typical big league starter, and Seattle made a proactive decision to put him in the bullpen again this year, a full season ahead of his chalk 40-man timeline. Garcia looks great. His velo is up, and he can alter fastball shape with remarkable distinction in the event that he chooses to elevate his heater rather than use his primary sinker. His slider is an above-average pitch aided by his funky low-three-quarters arm slot, and he’ll mix in an occasional cutter and changeup just to keep hitters on their toes. He doesn’t have a plus-plus pitch like a lot of higher-leverage relievers do, but Garcia’s rare lefty arm strength and the extreme groundball nature of his output give him a forecast better than that of a generic middle reliever. In fact, his ability to get a grounder likely ensures his future role will come as a mid-game fireman with runners on base. The success he had as a starter and his repertoire depth point to multi-inning viability, but Seattle hasn’t been inclined to use him that way in 2025.

Martinez presents an interesting projection dichotomy because he’s very young and has a prototypical mid-rotation starter’s size, but he’s also a fairly uncoordinated, slow-twitch athlete who has struggled to make any progress from a strike-throwing standpoint for the last couple of years. He’s listed at 6-foot-4, 180 pounds on his player page, but looks more like he’s about 225. Under the right strength and conditioning program (which the Mariners seem to have), he’s going to be built like an NFL quarterback in his athletic prime. Whether that will enable Martinez to have a more consistent delivery and release will dictate whether he’s a good starter or an impact reliever. His control is so raw right now that it will have to improve by more than two grades if he’s going to start.

Jeter’s repertoire depth is less of a question. He produces consistent mid-90s velocity and will touch 100 on occasion, and both of his secondaries flash plus. He tends to want to bend the slider into the top/glove-side section of the zone, but doesn’t do it consistently. He’s throwing strikes less than half the time with his non-fastballs, and he’s walking nearly a batter per inning for the second straight season. He has the next two and a half years to polish his strike-throwing up enough to be put on the Mariners’ 40-man as a starter. That’s a pretty good chunk of time for them to give it the old college try, but more likely, Martinez will end up being a late-inning reliever.

Williamson, whose mom was a gymnast at James Madison, was a D.C. area high schooler who went south to William and Mary for college. He was drafted by Seattle as a fourth-year junior and signed for $600,000 in the 2023 second round, well under slot, as part of an overall draft strategy focused on high schoolers. Within a year, Williamson was at Double-A, and he slashed .272/.365/.374 in just shy of 100 games at Arkansas. Assigned to Tacoma when camp broke in 2025, Williamson had a similar contact and on-base oriented performance when he was promoted to Seattle in April.

Williamson’s mother’s talent lives on in his sensational defense. He’s an elite bender with a savant’s footwork and actions that enable pedestrian pure arm strength. He played a little bit of shortstop in 2024 but none yet in 2025. Defensive versatility would be a boon for Williamson’s profile, but his skills are best-suited for third. Though he’s clearly a pretty strong dude, Williamson lacks great bat speed and power. He stays short to the ball and tries to punch line drive contact to the opposite field. He had just four career homers in the minors before he reached Seattle, though some of that is because he barely played at the Mariners’ A-ball affiliates. I think you could argue that of the many 40-grade players across major league baseball, the ones you want the most are the ones who have one truly exceptional skill (like Williamson’s defense) rather than the guys who are buckets of 40s across the board. Williamson’s ceiling looks a lot like Matt Duffy‘s career.

Morales quickly diverged from the profile of the typical high school draftee and has been a low-variance backend starter prospect for most of the last three seasons. He’s built like a major league starter at a well-composed 6-foot-2, and what his delivery lacks in explosiveness it makes up for with its ease and consistency. In 2024, Morales worked 149 innings as a 21-year-old, and posted a 3.02 ERA in a season split between High- and Double-A. His 2025 spring got off to a delayed start because he dealt with elbow inflammation during the offseason. He missed a month but is back in the Arkansas rotation, and he’s seemingly undergoing a shift in his approach to fastball usage, as he’s much more apt to locate down and away from righties now than he was last year, when Morales was mostly peppering the top of the zone (which he’s still doing versus lefties). He’s getting more groundballs and striking out fewer batters. Regardless, Morales’ game is about pitchability and sequencing. He has great glove-side feel for a slider and cutter, and improving feel for locating his changeup, which might end up being his best pitch at peak thanks to his mechanical consistency. Without a plus pitch, it’s tough to project Morales as an impact starter, but he’s a high-floored no. 5 who is on pace to debut in 2026.

Perez has starter-quality athleticism, command, and release consistency, but it’s still not clear that he has enough stuff beyond his excellent breaking ball. His 91-94 mph fastball is very vulnerable to contact and is generating a miss rate in the single digits as of list publication, and he barely throws his changeup. Also in the single digits, however, have been Perez’s walk rates, which have been in the 3-8% range in each of his pro seasons and are due in part to his exceptionally balanced and consistent delivery. The best of Perez’s offerings is his 83-87 mph slider, which has sharp, late glove-side break and rare velo for a guy who otherwise sits in the low-90s. It’s reasonable to project that Perez could succeed in a low-leverage middle relief role just by commanding his slider as well as he does, especially if he has a velo spike in shorter stints. He only needs to find a serviceable changeup or curveball to be a backend starter, which feels in play based on the consistency of his delivery and his feel for spin.

McGraw had two elbow surgeries as an amateur, missing his senior year of high school with a traditional TJ and his junior year of college with another elbow reconstruction, this time the internal brace procedure that’s becoming more common. McGraw showed two above-average secondary pitches and mid-90s velo as a sophomore on Cape Cod and with Team USA, but his velo took a meaningful step forward just before he blew out for the second time, sitting 95-98 mph; at that time, scouts considered his stuff superior to that of Wake Forest teammate Rhett Lowder. McGraw returned in 2024 but only pitched in four games toward the end of the season. His 2025 has already been sidetracked by a flexor tendon strain, which at one point seemed like it might lead to another surgery. After a second opinion, McGraw rehabbed instead, returning to action in mid-May. Over the last month, he has progressed to the point where he’s working three innings at a time.

McGraw’s fastball has averaged 95 mph during those rehab outings. He’s going to need all of that velo for his fastball to be effective because it has lackluster movement. That and McGraw’s injury history are the main factors leading to his relief projection here. McGraw’s secondary stuff invites development as a starter because both his slider and changeup are excellent, and give him the tools to compete with hitters of either handedness. His 85-89 mph gyro slider has late two-plane break and has looked better during his recent rehab outings than it did last season. His 89 mph changeup has nasty late tailing action and sink. Though he’s a crude strike-thrower, McGraw has missed a large percentage of the last five years and is undoubtedly underdeveloped as a craftsman because of it. He merits a long look as a starter but is more likely to be a good middle reliever, possibly one of the multi-inning variety.

Locklear cruised through the minors, slashed .272/.382/.468 across a 2024 season spent largely at Tacoma, and had a brief, 49-PA big league debut. He’s back in Tacoma and his power production has taken a bit of a dip, but he’s still performing above the league average overall. Locklear has strong (albeit fairly stiff) hands that produce big pull power on the inner third of the plate. Often, Locklear is late getting to the outer half of the plate, and he doesn’t readily hit for power even when he does make contact out there. He can shorten up and punch a fair amount of hard line drive and groundball contact all over the field. It’s less than ideal at first base, but enough to consider Locklear an acceptable 40-man occupant. Seasoning that is Locklear’s defense, which is excellent. He’s comfortable navigating foul territory, makes accurate feeds to the other bases, and executes tough feeds to his pitchers when they have to cover.

The Guardians put Vargas on their 40-man roster after the 2020 season and yet he entered 2025 still having rookie eligibility due mostly to time lost with injury. He had Tommy John in early 2021, missed most of the next two years, and was traded to the Diamondbacks after the 2022 season. He appeared in a few big league games at the start of 2023 but was optioned and spent the bulk of the year either in Reno or on the IL, not accruing enough big league time to graduate. Then Vargas was traded to Seattle as part of the Eugenio Suárez deal and spent all of 2024 in Tacoma. Out of options in 2025, he broke camp with the Mariners’ big league roster as a middle reliever. As of list publication, his ERA is in the mid-3.00s and he’s generating groundballs at a 57% clip, which is fifth among all relievers with at least 30 innings.

There have been times during the last few years when Vargas’ velo has sagged ever so slightly, and it’s made a big different in his performance when it does. This year, he’s sitting 98 with sink and tail, and he bends in a low-90s slider and mid-90s cutter, which run together in terms of velo and movement due to Vargas’ inconsistent release. His best breaking balls are incredibly nasty, but on the whole, these pitches play down a bit due to poor execution, which is also the thing limiting Vargas’ long-term projection to middle relief. A few outings before list publication, Vargas began changing his placement on the rubber depending on the opposing hitter. It looks like it’s a hitter-specific change, not due to handedness. It’s more something to be aware of if you’re advance scouting the Mariners rather than just talent scouting.

Cranton was a California prepster who decommitted from Arizona to pursue a junior college route. After two seasons at Saddleback (he missed one of those due to shoulder surgery), he matriculated to San Diego State and then finally to Kansas for his redshirt junior and senior years. He was one of the most talented seniors available in the 2024 draft, with a fastball regularly in the upper 90s and a hard slider with inconsistent shape. His fastball averaged 97 mph after last year’s draft and featured plus vertical movement. He seemed poised to race to the big leagues, basically as fast as he could polish his 85-88 mph slider, but Cranton was hit in the head by a comebacker on March 7 (his fastball was more 93-95 that day) and has been dealing with concussion symptoms since. He was activated and put on the Mariners’ ACL roster a few weeks ago but still hasn’t pitched.

Martínez, who signed for $2.5 million in January, is an off-the-bus standout thanks to his projectable baseball frame, which is in the Josh Rojas mold. He’s relatively short to the baseball with a downhill swing. It’s a rhythmic, aesthetically pleasing cut, but Martínez has middling bat speed and explosiveness. That extends to his athleticism on defense. Scouts have a mix of second base and shortstop projections here; he isn’t a lock to play short, and Martínez would need to outperform his hit/power projection to be an impact regular at the keystone. He’s underway in the 2025 DSL and, in a very small sample, has more or less performed exactly as you’d expect given his amateur report.

Gough signed as a 19-year-old high schooler for $275,000 rather than head to Oregon State. He pitched the entire 2024 season at Low-A Modesto — 23 starts, 96.2 innings, 100 K, 1.41 WHIP, 4.28 ERA — and then had Tommy John in September, which will keep him out for all of 2025.

Gough is physically mature for his age (though he arguably has some reverse projection; it’ll be interesting to see if he has re-conditioned his body coming out of TJ rehab) and has raw feel for release, resulting in a fair number of walks and considerable long-term relief risk. But his stuff is good, and he has the repertoire to be developed as a starter to see if his control improves. Gough’s fastball has big riding life, his changeup has plus sinking action, and his slider flashes big two-planed length. The slider is the least consistent of his offerings right now because it gets smashed when it isn’t located. His best ones in terms of raw movement live way off the plate to his glove side, and Gough might be a candidate for stride direction change (think Michael King’s delivery) as a way to optimize his slider’s playability. That could conceivably be re-worked during his rehab. Gough’s 40-man platform year will coincide with his 2026 return, and it’s plausible he’ll be fast-tracked in relief.

Rodden spent two seasons at an Oklahoma JUCO before matriculating to Wichita State, where he had more walks than strikeouts and 17 bombs in both seasons for the Shockers. The diminutive speedster had a power-hitting breakout in 2024 as he slashed .257/.343/.416 with a career-high 14 bombs. Early in 2025, before he hit the IL with an oblique strain, it looked like Rodden was swinging with maximum effort. His exit velos were way, way up, while his usually sterling contact rate had dipped. He’s struck out at a 26% clip since reaching Arkansas in the middle of last year, and his profile has shifted pretty dramatically in a short amount of time. Rodden runs well enough that he might be able to give center field a try; his path to impact is through special defensive versatility. He’s mostly been a 2B/3B to this point and projects as a fringe 40-man utility infielder.

Packard played a year at Arizona Western before transferring to Campbell, where he spent another three. He was eligible to be drafted in 2020 but had the worst month of his amateur career during that brief four-week season, hitting just .164; he was taken in the ninth round in 2021. Even with his 2020 clunker included, Packard had a .324/.453/.504 career line at Campbell and then coasted through the lower minors before his power production slipped at Double-A Arkansas; it has been below average since 2023. Packard has a stout, everyman build and below-average power. His swing is simple, he tracks pitches like a hawk, and he has opposite field tendencies that suit his physical abilities. He’s going to be an above-replacement big league hitter during his physical peak, which is pretty much here. He’s great upper-level depth, an up/down corner outfielder who lives on the 40-man fringe.

Moore was one of the 2024 draft’s priority senior signs. He was in Oregon’s bullpen all season until they asked him to make a start at the Pac 12 tournament, where he held 96-97 mph fastballs for four innings and change. He also had starter’s size at an enormous 6-foot-6, and it seemed plausible he could be a surface-scratching prospect upcycled into the rotation.

Though he held his 2024 velo in the early going of 2025, Moore is really struggling to throw strikes at Everett and soundly has a relief-only look at this point. His drop-and-drive delivery and low slot creates unusually flat angle on his fastball for a pitcher this size. His delivery has some head violence and inconsistency that causes Moore to scatter his pitch locations all over. Right-handers struggle to pick up his slider out of hand and Moore uses it as a way to get ahead early in counts, and then finish with fastballs. He’s a giant guy who has touched 100 this season and, as a recent draftee, still has through 2027 to develop enough command to be put on the 40-man. That seems like a reasonable amount of time for Moore to make some strike-throwing headway.

Sosa has been barbecuing in the lower minors since he signed in 2019, with his shaky control (as well as some injuries) the primary reason, but he has a pretty nasty four-pitch mix of stuff that sinks and cuts, and generates a ton of groundballs. He works from a low-three-quarters slot and peppers the arm-side/down quadrant with heavy mid-90s sinkers. He’ll occasionally elevate cutters and fastballs to get chase, but mostly his approach is about keeping the ball on the ground. It’s the pitch mix of a solid middle reliever, but Sosa projects more as an up/down sort because of his poor control.