Starter Strategies for Final, Tie-Breaker, and Wild Card Games

This week’s article is related to last week’s on a similar topic — and, much like that first article, begins with the premise that you’re the manager of major league club (congratulations!) and your team has qualified for the playoffs.

In that first piece, I argued that, under some conditions, you would slightly increase your chances of winning the ALDS/NLDS by employing the “save the ace” strategy, where you start your number-two pitcher in Game 1 and your ace in Game 2. Whether you choose this strategy or the conventional one of starting your ace in Game 1 and your number-two in Game 2, last week’s article assumed that all of your starting pitchers are rested and at your disposal at the beginning of the LDS. If you were fighting a close division or wild-card race (or perhaps both of these) at the end of the season, however, then this likely would not be the case, since you would have stuck to your regular five-man rotation until possibly even the final game of the regular season.

So this week, we will look at starting pitching in the final regular reason game, tiebreaker games, and wild-card game.

We will make the following assumptions:

• All starters will start on at least four days of rest; and
• There are only two teams in contention for each race (your team and one other team); and
• In the final week of the regular season, you had no travel days;
• You are always using your five-man rotation in order (ace, #2, #3, #4, #5, ace, etc.)

Our analysis is different for the AL and NL, because they have slightly different schedules. Here are the schedules for this year:

Division race only:

In this case, a team is fighting a division-race only, and is already eliminated from wild-card contention. This is the simplest case to analyze. You will use your rotation order and start your best available starter in the final regular season game as well as the potential tiebreaker game. If you advance to the LDS, and neither starter used is your ace or number-two pitcher, then they will be well-rested and ready for LDS Games 1 and 2. The difference arises if one or both of those starters used is your ace or number-two pitcher.

Let’s start with the NL. NL teams are given more flexibility with the extra travel day. There are four off days between the last regular season game on Sunday and NLDS Game 1 on Friday. Any pitcher who starts the last regular season game will have four days of rest by Game 1, and can start Game 1. So you would almost certainly choose to use your ace in Game 1.

If you had to play a tiebreaker game on Monday, the ideal strategy would be to start your ace in that game, simply because if you lose that game, your season is over. If you advance, your ace will be unavailable for Game 1. Allowing him four days of rest would slot him in for Game 2 on Saturday, however, and your number-two could start Game 1 on Friday. Essentially, you are being forced into using the “save the ace” strategy, which really isn’t a terrible thing. If your number-two starts the tiebreaker, then you will be forced into using the conventional strategy. If any other pitcher starts the tiebreaker, then you can choose between either strategy (most managers would pick the conventional strategy).

Things are a little trickier in the AL:

• If there is no tiebreaker game, then the situation is the same as the NL with a tiebreaker game (since in each case there are three off days before Game 1).
• However, if there is a tiebreaker game on Monday, and your ace starts it, then he would not be available on normal rest until Game 3, since Game 2 occurs on Friday and would only allow him three days of rest by that time. This means that he could only pitch once in the ALDS (presumably, your number-two starter would be pitching a potential Game 5).
• If your ace starts the final regular season game on Sunday, and there is a tiebreaker game, which your number-two starts, then you will be forced to start your number-three in Game 1 on Thursday. Your ace would start in Game 2 on Friday, which means he would be available for a potential Game 5. This is another forced “save the ace” scenario, although a less desirable one.

Wild-card race only:

Now let’s look at the case where a team is fighting for the second wild-card berth and is already eliminated from the division race. Again, things are easier for NL teams. In that case, you’re guaranteed a travel day both before and after the wild-card game. Previously, people have made compelling arguments that, in this scenario, it makes sense to use a combination of your best relievers instead of your best starter in the wild-card game. If you use this strategy, then the analysis from the division race only case still applies.

For AL teams, if there is no tiebreaker, then the analysis from the division-race-only case still applies. However, if there is a tiebreaker, then things get tricky. In this case, it would be difficult to use the “skip the starter” strategy for the wild-card game. This is because you don’t have the travel day before the wild-card game. Because the tiebreaker game is an elimination game, it is unlikely that you will rest the good relievers in your bullpen (that would only happen in a blowout). If you stick to conventional starters, then any pitcher who starts in the tiebreaker or wild-card game becomes unavailable until ALDS Game 3. If those two pitchers happen to be your ace and number-two, then similarly to the above case, the “best-case” scenario includes utilizing your ace and number-two starter in these elimination games. If you advance, then they would be starting ALDS Games 3 and 4. The downside in this case is threefold:

• Each would only be able to start only once in the ALDS.
• Your number-two is not guaranteed a start since the series could be over before a potential Game 4.
• Your number-three would have to start in a potential Game 5.

Division and wild-card races:

Let’s look first at the simpler of two cases, where the runner-up in the division will get a wild-card berth. In this case, if you lose the tiebreaker, then you apply the strategies from the wild-card-race-only scenarios. If you win the tiebreaker, then apply the strategies from the division-race-only scenarios.

The harder of the two cases is if the division runner-up has to play a second tiebreaker game to claim a wild-card berth. Since MLB will not have a single team play two tiebreaker games on the same day, this alters the schedules:

Presumably, the AL wild-card game will be pushed back a day from Tuesday to Wednesday. By eliminating a travel day, now the NL wild-card teams will not be able to use the “skip the starter” strategy (at least not easily). A team will play all of these games if they lose the division tiebreaker, win the wild-card tiebreaker, and win the actual wild-card game.

It’s possible that you will be forced to start your number-five starter in the wild-card game, which ought to be regaraded as a “worst-case” scenario. If you advance, the silver lining is that you will have the top of your rotation ready for the LDS round. But for AL teams, one interesting consequence to this scenario is that you will be forced to start your ace in ALDS Game 1, and cannot employ the “save the ace” strategy, since your number-two will only have three days of rest by Game 1.

On the other end, NL teams who start their ace in the wild-card game will have him available for a guaranteed NLDS Game 3. AL teams who start their ace in the wild-card game won’t have him available until ALDS Game 4, which means that he might not pitch at all in the ALDS if his team is swept in three games.

Also, AL teams who start their number-four in the wild-card game will be forced to start their number-five in ALDS Game 1. Their ace would start Game 2 and a potential Game 5. Usually teams switch to a four-man rotation for the playoffs, and that would still be true here, but instead of dropping their number-five from the rotation, they would be dropping their number-four.

Conclusion:

The best way to combat these situations is to clinch your division before the last day of the regular season and avoid them completely. But if you are forced into these situations, then you need to play the hand that you are dealt, and find the best strategy for your team. Under most circumstances you will have the opportunity to shuffle your rotation so that your ace can start a potential LDS Game 5. If not, then that likely means that you used your ace in an elimination game prior to the LDS, which isn’t a bad thing at all.