Steamer Projects: Texas Rangers Prospects
Earlier today, polite and Canadian and polite Marc Hulet published his 2014 organizational prospect list for the Texas Rangers.
It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, Hulet has considered the overall future value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the Rangers or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong.
What this brief post concerns isn’t overall future value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014.
Other prospect projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto.
Steamer Projections: Texas Batting Prospects
Below are the current 2014 projections for select Texas batting prospects. All projections have been prorated to 550 plate appearances (and 450 for catchers) for sake of uniformity. Defensive figures (denoted by Def) account both for positional adjustment and UZR, and are presented relative to league average. Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts in 2013. Prospects are listed in order of projected WAR. The symbol # denotes the relevant prospect’s ranking on Hulet’s list. Figures might diverge slightly (although not signficantly) from those which appear on player pages.
| # | Name | Age | POS | PA | BB% | K% | BABIP | wRC+ | BsR | Off | Def* | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Michael Choice | 24 | OF | 550 | 8.2% | 19.6% | .323 | 108 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 2.3 |
| 1 | Rougned Odor | 20 | 2B | 550 | 4.6% | 16.3% | .294 | 80 | 0 | -12 | 2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | Luis Sardinas | 21 | SS | 550 | 4.7% | 14.1% | .300 | 70 | 0 | -19 | 6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | Jorge Alfaro | 21 | C | 450 | 4.2% | 29.0% | .274 | 42 | 0 | -30 | 8 | -0.7 |
| 10 | Chris Bostick | 21 | 2B | 550 | 4.7% | 23.0% | .253 | 44 | 0 | -35 | 2 | -1.5 |
| 6 | Joey Gallo | 19 | 3B | 550 | 6.1% | 36.0% | .230 | 42 | 0 | -36 | 2 | -1.7 |
| 8 | Nick Williams | 20 | OF | 550 | 3.3% | 27.7% | .265 | 41 | 0 | -37 | -2 | -2.1 |
| 9 | Lewis Brinson | 20 | CF | 550 | 5.3% | 37.1% | .259 | 27 | 0 | -45 | 2 | -2.6 |
| 14 | Ronald Guzman | 19 | 1B | 550 | 4.0% | 17.3% | .243 | 44 | 0 | -35 | -10 | -2.8 |
| 11 | Nomar Mazara | 19 | COF | 550 | 5.4% | 27.4% | .245 | 33 | 0 | -42 | -6 | -3.1 |
Steamer Projections: Texas Pitching Prospects
Below are the 2014 projections for select Texas pitching prospects. Projections for starting pitchers have been prorated to 150 innings; for relievers, to 50 innings. Prospects are listed in order of projected WAR, which has been calculated by using kwERA — that is, an ERA estimator which utilizes only strikeouts and walks — so as to remove the vagaries of park effects, and probably also because the author has no idea what he’s doing. Listed ages are as of June 30, 2014. The symbol # denotes the relevant prospect’s ranking on Hulet’s list. Figures might diverge slightly (although not signficantly) from those which appear on player pages.
| # | Name | Age | Hand | IP | K% | BB% | kwERA | kwERA- | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Luke Jackson | 22 | RHP | 150 | 16.6% | 12.2% | 4.78 | 124 | 0.3 |
| 5 | Chi-Chi Gonzalez | 22 | RHP | 150 | 10.1% | 8.3% | 5.09 | 132 | -0.3 |
| 12 | David Ledbetter | 22 | RHP | 150 | 10.0% | 8.4% | 5.12 | 132 | -0.3 |
Notes
• It’s possible that Michael Choice, acquired by Texas this offseason in the trade that sent Craig Gentry to Oakland, may not have the range to play a league-average center field, quite. That said, there’s also a decent chance that he’s capable of playing an above-average corner outfield while also — according to Steamer, at least — producing slightly better than league-average offensive numbers, as well. In summary, that’s an average major leaguer, which is a good asset to possess at a league-minimum salary.
• Of some considerable interest will be how projection systems continue to evaluate the very powerful but also contact-averse Joey Gallo. What we learn for the moment — in a turn of events that no one would describe as “stunning” — is that he isn’t prepared to face major-league pitching for the moment. Of note: Steamer projects Gallo for 0.038 home runs per plate appearance currently, or about 20 per every 550 PAs.
• Only three pitchers appear on Marc Hulet’s organizational list for Texas, none of whom would appear to be serious candidates for preventing runs at anything close to major-league average in 2014. Right-hander Luke Jackson, for his part, does appear to throw the ball so hard, as noted very thoroughly by Nathaniel Stoltz last July.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.