Strider Struggles, Nola Dominates as Phillies Rout Braves in NLDS Game 3

Watching an elite starting pitcher at his best can be one of the most exciting things in baseball. Many are familiar with the feeling that no matter who the batter in the box is, the pitcher’s stuff is simply too much to handle, and he’ll be easily set down. But as we all know, not every start ends in a shutout or no-hitter; it can quickly go south no matter how long the hurler has been cruising. After setting down the first six Phillies he faced in NLDS Game 3, Spencer Strider looked more unbeatable than ever. But just a few hitters later, his night would be over, with the game — and potentially the series — out of reach for Atlanta.

The Braves’ announcement that Strider would be the Game 3 starter with Charlie Morton getting the ball for Game 4 said a lot about their expectations from the pitching staff. Strider last pitched on September 18, missing the past month with an oblique injury; starting him the day after Thursday’s scheduled off-day suggested Atlanta might be strictly managing his workload. After all, with relievers like Raisel Iglesias and Collin McHugh who have made multi-inning high-leverage appearances in the past, the Braves were set up well to have their bullpen eat up lots of outs in a close game.

Through the first two innings on Friday, Strider looked like the ace we had seen all season. His fastball touched triple digits, he struck out three, and most impressively, he racked up ten swinging strikes in just six batters. But he opened the third inning with a four-pitch walk to Brandon Marsh, then fought through a long matchup with Jean Segura, who struck out on eight pitches. Next up was nine-hole hitter Bryson Stott, who fouled off four consecutive fastballs in a two-strike count before smashing a slider for a double into right field, scoring Marsh and giving the Phillies a 1–0 lead. Throughout, Strider was showing signs of slowing down. While he sat in the 98–99 mph velocity range for the first two innings, his first three pitches to Stott were thrown at 96, and he missed his spot outside five times.

Now facing the order a second time, Strider intentionally walked Kyle Schwarber with first base open. That backfired immediately, as Rhys Hoskins took the first pitch he saw 394 feet into left field for a three-run blast. That homer come off a fastball right down the middle that clocked in at just 93.8 mph — the slowest fastball Strider threw on Friday by far, and tied for the slowest he had thrown all season. After the next hitter, J.T. Realmuto, singled on a first-pitch slider, Strider was removed from the game, having thrown just 2.1 innings and having faced 12 batters.

The first-pitch hits continued against reliever Dylan Lee, whose 91.6-mph fastball went down the pipe and promptly left the yard courtesy Bryce Harper for his first homer of the series. With Philadelphia up by six runs and the game nearly out of reach, the Braves opted to use their bulk arms to finish out the game, with Jake Odorizzi and Jesse Chavez allowing three more runs in the process.

Aaron Nola also came out of the gate throwing hard, but he maintained his velocity through his entire start. In the regular season, he averaged 92.8 mph on his four-seam fastball. Last week in Philadelphia’s Wild Card Series clincher against the Cardinals, he was up to 93.8. Against Atlanta, he sat at 94.2, the hardest he’s thrown his four-seamer all year. A walk and some questionable defense led to some traffic in the first inning, but he started mowing down the Braves after that. He was one pitch away from an immaculate inning in the second, getting five swinging strikes on curveballs alone from Vaughn Grissom and Marcell Ozuna. Fastballs and curveballs were Nola’s main weapons all season; per our pitch value leaderboards, he had the second-best fastball and ninth-best curveball of any starter in 2022, minimum 130 innings. The breaking ball was particularly effective today, earning eight whiffs on 17 swings, with Braves hitters chasing over half of his curveballs outside the zone.

Nola allowed just one hit through the fifth, keeping Atlanta off the board, but did run into some trouble in the sixth. Dansby Swanson accomplished the rare feat of getting a hit off a well-located Nola curveball, then Matt Olson walked on five pitches. Nola locked in after that, striking out Austin Riley on a fastball above the zone, then getting a tailor-made double play ball off the bat of Travis d’Arnaud. Hoskins dropped Alec Bohm’s throw at first, however, continuing the inning and allowing Michael Harris II to drive in the first and only run the Braves would score all game. Nola, who was pulled in the seventh inning for left-handed reliever José Alvarado, has now thrown 12.1 innings in two starts this postseason without surrendering an earned run.

While the Braves had the third-best regular-season offense in the NL by wRC+, they’ve been performing below their usual level this series, especially at the bottom of the order. The occupants of the last four slots in their lineup went a combined 2-for-16 in Game 3, which actually raised their series slashline. In the first two games, d’Arnaud’s two hits out of the six-hole were the only offense generated by that part of the batting order in 27 plate appearances. Almost every hitter in these spots has put up an o-fer over the past three games, and Philadelphia’s pitching staff has done well to capitalize on a string of near-free outs each time.

One win away from punching their ticket to the NLCS, the Phillies will turn to Noah Syndergaard in Game 4 on Saturday. He’s far from the ace he was during the Mets’ 2015 playoff run, grading out as a league-average pitcher in 2022; Philadelphia will likely have lefty Bailey Falter and righty Kyle Gibson on standby to contribute length out of the bullpen. With its bid to repeat as champions on the line, Atlanta will turn to Morton, who finished the season with his worst FIP since 2010 and the highest home run rate of his career. The Braves will hope his fastball-curveball combination will keep the ball in the park and keep them alive for at least one more game.