J.J. Hardy receives a lot of accolades for his bat, and rightly so. He hit 30 home runs last season, which tied him with Troy Tulowitzi for the most among big-league shortstops. He also can flash the leather. According to The Fielding Bible, “J.J. Hardy could be the most underrated shortstop in baseball. He makes all the plays that he should and can make the exceptional play on occasion.”

Hardy discussed the ins and outs of playing shortstop when he and his Baltimore Orioles teammates visited Fenway Park last week.

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On The Fielding Bible saying that he gets to more balls to his right than he did when he played for Milwaukee: “I don’t have a reason as to why that might be. It’s not that I worked on it the last couple of years. Maybe I play a little bit farther to the right than I did before, although we don’t really position any differently here. We go over the same scouting reports and I feel that I play guys who are pull [hitters] in the same spots as before.”

On reading the ball off the bat: “I’ve always felt that I read the ball well and get good jumps, because even though the speed isn’t there, I get to a lot of balls. Read the rest of this entry »

UZR is catching up to Adam Jones, or maybe it‘s the other way around. Either way, the Orioles centerfielder is finally receiving some love from defensive metrics — his league-leading 5.9 UZR is by far the best of his career. He already had a Gold Glove, as well as both appreciation and skepticism for the numbers that assess his play. The 26-year-old Jones discussed his defensive game — and those numbers — during a recent visit to Fenway Park.

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Jones on defense and data: “Defense adds to your overall value. Teams look at what you bring to the table both offensively and defensively. In this division, along with myself you have [Jacoby] Ellsbury — who is on the shelf right now and I wish him a speedy recovery — [Curtis] Granderson and [B.J.] Upton. You also have [Colby] Rasmus. I can’t forget my man Rasmus. I think we’re all plus defenders. We’re also plus offensive players, which is why most of us are hitting in the middle of the lineup for our teams. We bring both to the table.

“There are stats now like defensive UZR, and all that, but they don’t show the placement of the player. Everything nowadays is so statistical. Like wOBA. We have a wOBA this year –weighted on-base average. It’s pretty cool to look at that, even though we joke about it. There are so many statistical-analysis ways to look at the game now that it’s crazy.”

On Gold Glove voting: “Gold Glove winners usually deserve a Gold Glove. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s a small ripple in a very large pond but the Baltimore Orioles front office made another astute move involving a lesser known prospect.

I originally complimented the organization back in the spring when it signed former Arizona Diamondbacks catching prospect John Hester (who was later released and is now playing at the big league level with the Angels) and then again when the club acquired former Boston Red Sox catching prospect Luis Exposito (an admitted upgrade over Hester). Both Exposito and Hester represent excellent, cost-efficient second-string catchers for a club that features a strong starting option like Matt Wieters.

The Orioles’ latest move saw the club receive pitching prospect Mike Belfiore – again from the Arizona Diamondbacks. The left-hander is the return that Baltimore receives for former third base prospect Josh Bell who fell out of favor with the organization (for good reason) and was traded to Arizona for a player-to-be-named-later back in late April. Although I favor Belfiore, 23, by a wide margin it’s a decent trade for both organizations as Arizona adds some corner infield depth and can afford to part with a B-level arm thanks to a minor league system that boasts plethora of top-shelf arms such as Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs, Pat Corbin, and Archie Bradley. Baltimore, on the other hand, desperately needs the pitching depth.

Read the rest of this entry »

Nick Johnson needs a typical Nick Johnson season to secure his legacy. Not as an injury-prone first baseman — that’s his other legacy — but as an on-base machine. The 33-year-old left-handed hitter came into the year as one of fewer than 60 players in history [minimum 3,000 plate appearances] with a career OBP of .400 or better. Now with the Baltimore Orioles, Johnson was right at that mark when he talked about his disciplined approach prior to Saturday’s game.

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Johnson on his career .400 OBP: “[Having a high OBP] means that I’m helping the team out. That’s how you score runs. You get on base and the next thing you know someone pops one, or hits one in the gap, and you put a couple of runs on the board. You have to be on base in order to score runs. I think [OBP] is big.”

On his patient approach: “Ever since I started playing the game, I‘ve had that approach. Even in Little League and high school. I’ve had people tell me to swing the bat more, and this, that and the other, but it’s just something I’ve always had. I don’t know where it came from.

“Sometimes, when you’re seeing a lot of pitches, you can get too passive. Read the rest of this entry »

Zach Britton’s rookie season was both predictable and surprising. The 23-year-old left-hander went 11-11 and 4.61, in 28 starts — numbers that could reasonably be expected from a highly regarded first-year hurler competing in baseball’s toughest division. How he arrived at them was the unexpected part.

Britton went into the year rated as the Orioles’ top pitching prospect, thanks in part to a power sinker that was lauded as “the best in the minor leagues” and a slider that graded out as plus. His 2.8 GB/FB rate in 2010 complemented his scouting report, and his 2.43 K/BB was rock solid.

In his first season in Baltimore, Britton wasn’t nearly the same pitcher. He more than held his own against big-league hitters, but in a different way. In the future, that’s probably a good thing — but only if he can recapture the worm-killing magic that led to the hype.

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David Laurila: How would you describe your rookie season?

Read the rest of this entry »

I like to go outside the box from time to time, and that includes asking my interview subjects to give their interpretations of quotable quotes. I did so last year with Chris Davis — then a Ranger, now an Oriole — and given the quality of his responses, a return engagement seemed in order when his new team visited Fenway Park in September. The jury remains out on the 25-year-old slugger fulfilling his potential with the bat, but when it comes to knocking questions out of the park, he’s proven he can go deep with the best of them.

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David Laurila: Ty Cobb once said, “Baseball is a red-blooded sport for red-blooded men. It’s no pink tea, and mollycoddles had better stay out.”

Chris Davis: There are a lot of ways you can go with that, but I think he probably meant that it’s a man’s game. It’s definitely not for the emotionally weak. You play six months out of the year and some of the games can leave you an emotional train wreck if you let them. Frankly, I don’t know how more baseball players aren’t, for lack of a better term, wusses.

DL: According to Sandy Koufax, “Pitching is the art of instilling fear.” Read the rest of this entry »

Ken Singleton is among the most underrated players of his era. The former Expo and Oriole finished in the top 10 in OBP nine times from 1973 to 1983 — topping the .400 mark four times, and seven seasons receiving MVP votes. In the words of Bill James, “He drew so many walks and hit so many homers he would produce runs if he hit .220, but he didn’t hit .220; he hit .300.”

The switch-hitting outfielder finished his 15-year big-league career with an OPS-plus of 132 and a slash line of .282/.388/.436. In 17 postseason games — Singleton has a World Series ring with the 1983 Orioles — his line was .333/.391/.421. Despite his career numbers, he didn’t get one vote in 1990 when he became eligible for the Hall of Fame.

More than two decades since his playing days ended, Singleton now is as an analyst for the Yankees on the YES Network.

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David Laurila: Why were you such a good hitter?

Ken Singleton: I was disciplined. My first year of pro ball was in the Florida State League and I led the league in bases on balls. I walked 87 times. I maintained that — the ability to recognize balls and strikes — throughout my career. It’s hard enough to hit strikes, so why would you want to swing at something that’s a little tougher to hit? My thing was that if the ball was somewhere I couldn’t reach, it probably wasn’t a strike and I wasn’t going to swing at it.

You’re normally going to get something to hit in an at bat. I can remember walking back to the bench after being called out on three straight pitches. The pitcher was a left-handed reliever named Bob Lacey — his nickname was Spacey Lacey — and all three were perfect, knee high on the outside corner. That’s the only time I can recall that happening, and I probably had 8,000 to 9,000 plate appearances. Usually you get at least one pitch that you should be able to hit. Whether you hit it or not is another story. You might swing and miss, or foul it off and not get another one. But 999 times out of 1,000, you’re going to get at least one.

DL: I have to believe that you were pitched around more than once? Read the rest of this entry »

The Baltimore Orioles are one of those teams for which the line between Current and Future Talent is a little blurry. Though the club has as yet to solidify its 25-man roster, whichever group they send northward, it will consist of at least five — and, very possibly, seven or eight — players who made their major league debuts last season. Nor does that tally include players like Adam Jones or Felix Pie who, despite their relative experience, won’t even turn 26 before the end of 2010.

Well-known superhero (and sometime catcher) Matt Wieters did not, in fact, save the planet last season. Still, he actually hit pretty well down the stretch (.354/.420/.525 over his last 112 PA, with improved BB/K ratio). CHONE rates the second-year player at 4.0 WAR. Center fielder Adam Jones won a Gold Glove in center last season. That probably shouldn’t have happened, but it’s not Jones’ fault. He should play a league-average-y center while hitting above league average.

Left fielder Nolan Reimold didn’t make his major league debut till the middle of May, but when injuries befell teammates Luke Scott and the aforementioned Jones, it was difficult for Baltimore not to give a chance to Reimold and the .394/.485/.743 line he put up in Norfolk.

If you want the brass tacks on right fielder Nick Markakis’s down 2009, Jack Moore’s article on the same is the place to go. Here’s the most interesting thing you’ll probably learn from it, though: last season, Markakis saw a drop in Z-Swing and an increase in O-Swing. The Orioles hope that sitch straightens itself out before he gets too far along in the six-year, $66.1 deal to which they signed him prior to least season.

Luke Scott isn’t a bad hitter at all, but gets hit hard by the DH positional adjustment. It’s not clear that he’s actually a worse fielder than Nolan Reimold, but Baltimore appears committed to giving the latter all the time he needs in left.

Likely first baseman Garrett Atkins and fellow corner infielder Miguel Tejada are not — nor are they intended to be — long-term solutions at their repsective positions. Suitably, they’re each signed to one-year deals.

Shortstop Cesar Izturis is a liability with the bat, with CHONE and ZiPS calling for 69 and 68 wRC+s, respectively. If it were possible to bat him 10th in the lineup, Manager Dave Trembley might consider it. Still, he’s been worth two full wins afield the last two years while netting fewer than 900 PA. Oh, and while we’re at it, we might as well consider the guy who’s been the team’s best player for awhile: second baser Brian Roberts signed a four-year, $40M extension before last season that begins this year. Reports out of spring training that Roberts’ back is a problem are not particularly encouraging, but CHONE projects a 3.2 WAR and, as we all know, projections are designed to be completely accurate exactly 100% of the time.

Sitting on the bench you’ll almost definitely see Felix Pie and Ty Wigginton. The former can play any outfield position well and is interesting because of his youth and pedigree; the latter can play any infield position below average-ly and is interesting because, despite a body type that belongs in the Before column, is still a major league baseball player. (And, fine, he can hit, too. Usually, at least.) A fierce battle is raging at back-up catcher between Chad Moeller and Craig Tatum. I can barely contain my excitement.

As Marc Hulet will almost definitely shout to the heavens in the Future Talent version of this report, the Orioles have a cadre of young, high ceiling starters. Of that group, lefty Brian Matusz and righty Chris Tillman combine potential with ability to contribute immediately. It’s probably not best to expect the biggest of things from either this year, but something in the vicinity of league average may not be crazy talk.

Also in the discussion is Brad Bergesen, who will probably enter the season as the third starter despite the fact that he very likely is what he is. One thing “he is” is the guy who led all Baltimore pitchers in WAR in 2009 (2.3). According to our own Bryan Smith, he has the sort of sinker that could go unrecognized at lower levels but still make him a useful major leaguer.

Rumor has it that Jeremy Guthrie was once a highly touted prospect. Now he’s a 31-year-old coming off 200 innings of 5.22 xFIP pitching. If he can hit the 200 IP mark again while FIP-ing under five, that makes him something, at least — and probably worth the $3M he’s being paid. Old Man Kevin Millwood will spend the last year of his five-year, $60M contract — originally signed with Texas — as the “ace” in Baltimore.

Right handers David Hernandez and Jason Berken made their respective debuts last season. Despite his giant minor league strikeout totals, Hernandez might not have the overall repertoire to gets outs as a major league starter. Look for him in the bullpen at some point. Koji Uehara actually didn’t pitch poorly at all last year in his Stateside debut, posting a 1.6 WAR in just 12 starts. The problem was that kept straining his thigh and elbow. A move to the bullpen is one possible remedy for that, although, as we speak, the 35-year-old is dealing with — what? — a strained hamstring.

Though it’s not Brandon Lyon-bad, the O’s signing of Mike Gonzalez to a two-year, $12M deal is a head-scratcher for a team that will almost assuredly not be contending this season. What’s more, Baltimore has young-ish Jim Johnson, who became the team’s closer after the departure of George Sherrill to the Dodgers. Also of note here are Cla Meredith — he of the immense ground-ball rate — and Kam Mickolio — he of the immense Man Body. Matt Albers, Mark Hendrickson, and Will Ohman all own Baltimore Orioles jerseys, and will — for better or worse — probably wear them at some point this season.

The Baltimore Orioles have a difficult task ahead of them the next few years with three juggernauts ahead of them in the American League East. However, since Andy MacPhail took over baseball operations in 2007, the Orioles have positioned themselves for a bright future. Part of this is manifested in their crowded, young, and skilled outfield.

The two best players in the outfield are right fielder Nick Markakis (26 in 2010) and center fielder Adam Jones (24). Combining ZiPS, CHONE, and my own projections for offense and Jeff Zimmerman’s UZR projections and CHONE’s TotalZone for defense, Markakis projects as a +21/150 hitter in 2010, and +2 defender in right field for about 3.6 WAR.Jones’ projections vary more widely, but he comes in at about +9/150 hitting, +1 fielding (both Jones and Markakis had surprising down years defensively in 2009) for about 3.2 WAR. Those are the obvious guys. For the remaining outfield spot, the Orioles have three candidates: Nolan Reimold, Felix Pie, and Luke Scott.

The 26 year-old Reimold will probably begin 2010 in left field, assuming he recovers well from ankle surgery. Reimold came on strong in 2009, projecting at about +12/150 offensively. His defense was less impressive, and he projects as a about a -6/150 defender in left field. Overall, that’s about about a league-average player. Still, there’s a lot of uncertainty in his defensive projection, and he is young.

While Reimold is the popular choice to start in left field, it’s not obviously the correct choice. While Felix Pie projects as the worst hitter in the group a -4/150, he’s also as good or better than Jones as a center fielder (+2), which would translate to about +12 in left field. So he projects as about a league average (2.0 WAR) player, and is the second-youngest player in the group (only to Jones). While he probably won’t ever be the superstar people though he would be become before the Cubs started jerking him around (as is their tradition), he’s young, good, and has little enough service time that it’s understandable why other teams are interested in obtaining him, and also why the Orioles have so far refused to sell him for a bag of magic beans.

Scott is the odd man out in this situation, but it’s hardly due to a lack of talent. As a hitter, he projects at +11/150. Despite being primarily a designated hitter in 2009, his past performance in the field suggests that is a waste of his talents, as he projects as +2 in left field — clearly better than Reimold. Overall, that makes Scott about a 2.5 WAR player.

The Orioles are in an enviable position of not only having excess talent in the outfield, but not necessarily having to trade any of them. Scott is an underrated player, but given his age (32), arbitration status, and the Orioles overall situation, he should be the first to go. But it’s not as if his arbitration award will be onerous relative to his value. If he’s willing to move to first base (despite his defensive ability), that would fill a hole for the Orioles. But he might have the most value in trade to a team that needs a left fielder, where his skills are best utilized as a 2-2.5 WAR outfielder rather than a 1-1.5 WAR DH.

Pie is the wildcard, as he’s barely older than Jones, and perhaps the most defensively skilled player of the group. Baltimore has understandably committed to Jones in center given his superior bat (although Pie has better plate discipline). While Reimold is the popular choice to start in left, Pie’s far superior defensive skills make him more than just a fourth outfielder. For the future, the Orioles might be best off trading Pie and/or Scott for prospects and/or filling another area of need in the majors. On the other hand, especially in Pie’s case, he’s young, cheap, and skilled enough that they don’t have to trade him, and can certainly find something for him to do around the office. Not many teams find themselves in such a comfortable situation.

Click here to enter your projections for the Orioles various outfielders.

The Orioles have reportedly signed Garrett Atkins (non-tendered earlier by the Colorado Rockies) to a one-year contract with a base salary of four million dollars with incentives. The deal includes an option for 2011 with a $500,000 buyout. Atkins is thus guaranteed about $4.5 million dollars for 2010. Is Atkins worth what Baltimore will be paying?

The now-30 year-old Atkins put up genuinely impressive offensive numbers in 2006 (.410 wOBA, 142 wRC+) and 2007 (.368 wOBA, 116 wRC+) for Colorado. His wOBA dipped to .337 (98 wRC+) in 2008, which isn’t too bad until one takes into account his home park. 2009 was even more disappointing for Atkins, as he only managed a .291 wOBA (67 wRC+) and saw his playing time cut. It is difficult to project players moving out of extreme run environments like Atkins, but CHONE posts context neutral linear weights and already has Atkins projected for Baltimore: .257/.326/.410, 3 runs below average per 150 games.

While that isn’t a thrilling offensive line, three runs below average isn’t actually all that bad for a third baseman. Unfortunately, Atkins’ fielding also seems to have fallen off of a cliff. In 2006, his UZR/150 at third was a reasonable -2.1, but Atkins followed that with a horrendous -14.6 in 2007. This was bad enough that he began to see more time at first base (where he also was hardly a defensive standout), but still was below average at third, with -8.6 and -0.7 UZR/150s in 2008 and 2009 respectively. The Fans Scouting Report rates Atkins well below average as a third baseman. Jeff Zimmerman projects Atkins at -7/150 at third base for 2010. He might play some first base for Baltimore, depending on whom else they sign, but neither the positional adjustment as well as his past play there suggests that would increase his overall value. TotalZone is much more generous, projecting Atkins as a +3/150 defender, but given UZR’s rating of him as well as the fans, it’s hard to project Atkins at anything better than -5.

Including positional adjustment, over 150 games Atkins projects as about a 1.3 WAR player for 2010. Assuming $4.4 million per marginal win as average market value, his $4.5 guarantee plus incentives seems to be in the right neighborhood.

It is worth reiterating that consistently paying “fair market value” isn’t really a “smart” thing to do. Teams on budgets need to get more for their money to win consistently, especially going up against New York and Boston in the American League East. On the other hand, it isn’t particularly “dumb,” either. It’s “average…” on average. It makes sense in this particular case. They certainly didn’t want to bring back Melvin Mora, who has entered the undead phase of his career. Baltimore’s prospects at third and first aren’t ready for the major leagues yet. Atkins isn’t a star, and will be lucky to be league average again. While Baltimore surely isn’t trying to contend, as has been noted elsewhere, sometimes a team simply needs to put a competent player on the field for fans. That’s okay as long the team doesn’t pay out the nose. Baltimore isn’t paying excessively for Atkins, and he won’t be blocking any prospects who might be ready for 2011. Way to bridge a gap, Mr. MacPhail.

How do you think Garrett Atkins will play for Baltimore in 2010? Enter your fan projection by clicking here.