We’re happy to introduce Jack Moore as our newest addition to the FanGraphs team. We think you’ll enjoy his contributions here.

October is upon us, and most of our attention is upon the eight playoff teams vying for the Commissioner’s Trophy. However, there are 22 other teams, and there are some notable stories and players from these teams as well.

One of the main stories entering the season was the impending arrival of catcher and savior of the world Matt Wieters. The Orioles delayed Wieters service clock and then called him up this May after amassing a minor league career OPS of over 1.000. Wieters is a switch hitter with impressive power and by all scouting accounts is a plus defensive catcher. Plus, he can steal home from first base.

PECOTA projected Wieters to be an 8 win player this year, which some considered to be a dubious claim, even by WARP3’s questionable calculation of replacment level. CHONE was slightly pessimistic, pegging Wieters as a 3 win player. Wieters did not meet either of those projections. Wieters only accrued 385 PAs this season, and in that span he put up nearly 2 wins. Among AL rookies, this number is overshadowed by the likes of Brett Anderson and Elvis Andrus. Still, this is a number that any organization could appreciate out of a rookie. But this is Matt Wieters, who once hit home runs in AA and AAA… at the same time.

Wieters’ wOBA dropped to .330 this year, a substantial drop from his AAA line of .391 and his low-minors numbrs which ranged from .440 and .490. Both his IsoP and his walk numbers plummeted upon reaching the show. A human .124 ISO and 7.3% walk rate led to a nearly exactly average season at the plate for Wieters. As a catcher, an average hitting season ranks as the 12th best season out of a catcher this year, certainly acceptable out of a rookie, despite the fact that this rookie snacks on batting donuts.

The Orioles have no reason to be alarmed. Wieters still projects to be a fantastic player going forward. Although his 2009 numbers may be sobering, they are only 385 plate appearances. We still have roughly 700 incredible minor league plate appearances to judge him on, and they don’t magically disappear now that he’s in the big leagues. Any player that puts up .440+ wOBAs in the minors and then hits like an average major leaguer in his first season at the age of 23, all while playing catcher, is worthy of accolades and is one of the biggest assets a major league organization could hope for.

Even if he can’t cure world hunger by flexing his left bicep.

For the last five seasons, certain truisms have come to fruition with eery consistency. Mark Prior is going to get injured and miss most of the season. Alex Rodriguez will post gaudy numbers and still become the subject of intense scrutiny. Curt Schilling will make controversial claims in interviews or on his blog. These are just a few examples. Another example, despite occurring on a somewhat smaller stage in terms of popularity or importance, is that Daniel Cabrera of the Baltimore Orioles will fail to live up to his potential.

The 6’9″, 270-pound righty has been a full-time starting pitcher since 2004. Known primarily for bringing the heat, Cabrera has always struggled with control problems. Still, everyone in the Baltimore organization held out hope that he could somehow harness his raw ability into something exceeding potential. Suffice it to say, this has not happened, outside of mere glimpses.

His FIP marks from 2004-2008: 5.10, 4.02, 4.20, 5.01, 5.61. In 2005 and 2006, Cabrera appeared to be on the verge of making himself a quality pitcher. Appeared is the key word, however, as his FIPs were a bit deceiving. In 2005, he struck out 8.76 batters per nine while posting a BB/9 of 4.85. Granted the walk rate was down from the 5.42 in 2004, and the strikeout rate had practically doubled from the 4.63 in the same season, but walking five batters per nine innings is not efficient at all.

The next season, his strikeout rate again rose, this time to a gaudy 9.55. Unfortunately, his walk rate rose to a career-worst 6.32. Somehow, Cabrera managed to post a 4.20 FIP and 4.74 ERA despite walking over six batters per nine innings. On top of his FIPs being a bit deceiving in that regard, the best ERA of his career came in 2005, at 4.52. Even when he looked good, he was not really anything special.

In 2007, his FIP rose to 5.01; his ERA jumped to 5.55; his K/9 lowered to 7.31; and, luckily, his BB/9 decreased to a still poor 4.76. He was not walking as many hitters in comparison to the previous three years, but the mark did not portend greatness by any stretch of the imagination, and his ability to miss bats seemed to be on its way down. Last year, Cabrera reduced his BB/9 to a career-best 4.50. Unfortunately, his strikeout rate fell to 4.75, which primarily led to a 5.61 FIP, below replacment level.

Daniel’s 97 mph fastball in 2004 has steadily decreased to its 92.6 mph average right now. The frequency at which batters swing at his pitches out of the zone has dropped from 23% to 19% in this stretch. Unfortunately, the rate of contact on these outside pitches has almost exponentially increased, rising from 35% to 48% to 55% to 70% over the last four seasons.

He is throwing much slower, striking batters out at a below average rate, and walking hitters at a below average rate. His strand rate has always hovered around the league average, but when you allow that many baserunners, the LOB would need to be well above average to serve as a counteracting force.

Marcel pegs Cabrera for 170 IP in 2009 at a 4.95 FIP. How does that stack up? Well, a Replacement SP would pitch about 150 IP at a 5.50 FIP. The remaining 20 innings would go to a Replacement RP at a 4.50 FIP. Cabrera’s projection calls for 94 runs allowed; the Replacement SP would be responsible for 92; and the Replacement RP for 10. Put together, we have the 94 runs of Cabrera vs. the 102 runs given up by the replacement level.

This puts Cabrera at +8 runs above replacement, and +0.8 WAR. Assuming a dollar valuation of $4.8-$5 mil/win, a reasonable contract for Cabrera would be for one year, ranging from $3.6-$3.9 mil. And, again, this is assuming that his strikeout rate can rebound to slightly above average at worst, and that his walk rate can remain close to the career low posted last season. Forgive me, but I am rather skeptical of either of those occurring.

Daniel was non-tendered last week, meaning that the Orioles could still theoretically bring him back, or that other teams could inquire about his services. Sometimes teams will non-tender players they want to bring back, but at a lesser fee.

Last year, Cabrera made around $2.9 mil after avoiding an arbitration case in which he wanted $3.3 mil and the team offered $2.6 mil. Even if he was offered arbitration, it isn’t likely that, given his poor 2008 campaign, he would jump up to something in the $6-7 mil range. This practically confirms that the Orioles just want to cut ties with the 28-yr old righthander.

Even though all the signs are pointing towards him lacking the skills and stuff to be a successful pitcher, it seems very likely that someone will take a flyer on him and hope to resurrect his career. Paying him anything over, say, $3.8 mil for his services would be a mistake, however. If a team can snag him for something in the vicinity of Mike Hampton’s recent contract, or even the 1-yr/$2.5 mil w/incentives deal given to Chan Ho Park, little risk would be involved, but anything more would be a mistake.

The Graduate: Garrett Olson | Born: October 1983 | Left-Handed Pitcher

Garrett Olson had a nice start to his 2008 Major League season and maintained a respectable ERA through the month of June. After that, though, the southpaw posted an ERA over 8.00 in his final 14 starts and allowed 98 hits in in 68.1 innings. Overall, he allowed rates of 4.21 BB/9 and 5.63 K/9. Bill James’ projection for 2009 sees Olson returning to form as a No. 4 or 5 starter in the Baltimore rotation. He’ll need to fool batters a little more in 2009 to achieve that projection, as hitters made contact more than 90 percent of the time when they swung at pitches in the strike zone against Olson in 2008.

The Riser: Jake Arrieta | Born: March 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Jake Arrieta took a little bit of a tumble in the 2007 draft due to signability concerns and signed late – so he did not put on a pro uniform until last year’s Arizona Fall League. He more than held his own there and carried that success on over into 2008. Arrieta allowed just 80 hits in 113 High-A ball innings. He posted rates of 4.06 BB/9 and 9.56 K/9. He features a low-90s fastball that touches the mid-90s, a slider and a change-up. Despite his lack of pro experience, Arrieta could be pitching in Baltimore by the end of the 2009 season.

The Tumbler: Billy Rowell | Born: September 1988 | Third Baseman

Billy Rowell, the Orioles first-round pick in 2006, is only 20 years old and has plenty of time to right the ship but Baltimore is no doubt disappointed with his development to this point. The first high school player selected in the draft, Rowell has already been surpassed development-wise by Toronto’s Travis Snider, who was selected shortly after him but has already made his Major League debut. In 2008 at High-A ball, Rowell hit .248/.314/.368 with seven home runs and an ISO of .120 in 375 at-bats. He walked 8.8 percent of the time, while striking out at a rate of 27.7 percent.

The ’08 Draft Pick: L.J. Hoes | Born: March 1990 | Second Baseman

A Washington D.C. native, L.J. Hoes was selected in the third round of the 2008 draft out of high school and thrived in Rookie ball. He hit .308/.418/.390 with an ISO of .082 and 10 stolen bases in 159 at-bats. He posted rates of 15.9 BB% and 13.8 K%. Defensively, he may move to center field down the line.

The ’09 Sleeper: Brandon Erbe | Born: December 1987 | Right-Handed Pitcher

It’s understandable that some Baltimore fans are getting frustrated with Brandon Erbe’s apparent lack of development, but the right-hander will be pitching at Double-A in 2009 – his fifth season in pro ball – at the age of just 21. Erbe pitched at High-A ball in 2008, for the second straight season, and had a solid year by allowing 120 hits in 150.2 innings of work. He posted rates of 2.99 BB/9 and 9.02 K/9. His control was much improved this past season as he shaved off almost two walks per nine innings. Erbe’s biggest nemesis is consistency, followed by a penchant for allowing home runs (21 in 2008, at a rate of 1.25 HR/9). I am going on record by stating, if healthy, Erbe will be one of the biggest breakout pitchers of 2009.

Up Next: The Los Angeles Dodgers

I talked a little bit about Baltimore Orioles pitching prospect Chris Tillman yesterday. Tillman’s Double-A rotation mate David Hernandez is another interesting prospect in the system and a survey by Baseball America recently ranked the pitcher’s out-pitch as the best breaking ball in the Eastern League.

Hernandez was drafted in the 16th round of the 2005 draft out of Cosumnes River Junior College. It was the third time that he had been drafted, including in the 29th round of the 2003 draft by Colorado and the 34th round of the 2004 draft by Arizona.

Along with his breaking ball – which has been called both a curveball and a slider – Hernandez also has a low-90s fastball that can touch the mid-90s and a change-up. He has battled his command a bit (including a career 3.88 BB/9) but Hernandez, 23, has also always been able to rack up the strikeouts (career 10.17 K/9).

After spending his first three pro seasons in A-ball, Hernandez has taken to Double-A like a fish to water. He currently has allowed 102 hits in 129 innings pitched, good for a .217 average against. He also has allowed 64 walks and struck out 156 batters. Hernandez is also an extreme flyball pitcher. If you combine that fact with the high number of walks this season it’s clear that the pitcher still has work to do, but it shouldn’t be long before Hernandez receives a taste of Major League Baseball.

The Baltimore Orioles organization currently has two very talented hurlers on its Double-A staff, both of whom should have bright futures in the Majors Leagues if they can stay healthy. Interestingly, though, the pitchers come from very different baseball backgrounds.

Jake Arrieta was selected in the fifth round of the 2007 draft but he was considered a better talent before falling in the draft due to signability ($$$) concerns. During his college career he spent time at a junior college and at Texas Christian University. He was also drafted by the Reds in 2004 (31st round) and the Brewers in 2005 (26th round). The Orioles managed to get him signed with an above-slot deal and the ‘gamble’ has paid off for the club.

Because Arrieta signed late in 2007, he did not make his debut until the Arizona Fall League, where he dominated. Due to his early success, Arrieta was assigned to High-A ball to begin the 2008 season at the age of 22. In his first 12 starts, the right-hander over-powered his competition and had an ERA below 2.50 and allowed just 37 hits in 69.2 innings of work. In his last nine starts, though, Arrieta has allowed 40 hits in 35.1 innings, with an ERA around 4.50. Overall, Arrieta is holding right-handers to a .169 average, while lefties are hitting .257.

Even with his recent struggles, Arrieta has allowed just 77 hits in 106 innings. He has also struck out 112 batters while walking 48. He has struggled a bit with his control, but Arrieta’s numbers suggest he is well on his way to becoming a solid No. 3 starter at the Major League level.

Brandon Erbe, on the other hand, made his pro debut at the age of 17. He was selected in the third round of the 2005 draft out of a Maryland high school and was immediately sent to Rookie Ball where he held his own and posted an ERA of 3.09 with just eight hits and 10 walks allowed in 23.1 innings of work. He began the next year in full-season ball and pitched well with 88 hits allowed in 114.2 innings of work. Erbe also struck out 133 batters with 47 walks.

The wheels fell off for the right-hander in 2007 when he was promoted to High A-ball as he struggled with his command. He went from allowed 3.69 BB/9 in 2006 to allowing 4.68 BB/9 in 2007. He also allowed 127 hits in 119.1 innings. It was the first time that Erbe experienced a prolonged slump in the minor leagues and forced him to deal with adversity, which will probably help him long-term.

Erbe has pitched much better in 2008 while repeating High-A ball at the age of 20. He is currently leading the league in innings pitched and has allowed 97 hits in 109.2 innings. Erbe has walked 31 batters and struck out 108. One warning sign is the 18 homers than the youngster has allowed this season. He does have the potential to be a No. 2 or 3 starter if he can sharpen his command and control. Erbe could also be a dominating reliever with a mid- to high-90s fastball and wipe-out slider.

Although both pitchers come from different backgrounds, they could easy form a powerful punch in the middle of the Orioles’ starting staff within two seasons.