New York Yankees: Sustainable Success?

Many fans in New York are probably still in shock over the Yankees’ early expulsion from the 2011 playoffs. The truth is, though, that the dynasty is waning. That’s not to say that it’s over, by any means, but the unstoppable juggernaut of years past has been affected by Father Time.

The majority of the players that make up the team’s core are over 30 years old, including C.C. Sabathia, Mariano Rivera, A.J. Burnett, Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Nick Swisher. Even Curtis Granderson, a breakout 2011 player, is already 30. Although it’s hard to fathom, within a few years Rivera, Posada, Jeter, and even Rodriguez will be retired from the game.

What does this mean for the Yankees? Is there an existing core of somewhat youthful players that the organization can use to rebuild – or perhaps renovate is a better word – its dynasty.

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CC’s Scorched Earth Policy

A few days ago, Dave Cameron pointed out that a trio of New York Yankees starters are striking out fewer batters than in years past. A.J. Burnett, Javier Vazquez, and CC Sabathia are probably drawing the ire of P.C. Richards (fewer whistles!) But, unlike Burnett and Vazquez, CC has compensated for a decline in K’s by waging a ground assault in 2010.

From 2007-2009, Sabathia struck out 8.2 batters per nine innings. Prior to the start of this season, both CHONE and ZiPS projected CC to whiff about 7.7 opponents per nine frames. Instead, Sabathia has 6.9 K/9 through 174.2 innings pitched. The towering lefty’s swinging strike rate, which was 12.2% from 2007-2009, comes in at 8.9% in 2010 (8.4% MLB average this season). CC’s 74.7% contact rate from ’07 to ’09 was lowest among qualified MLB starters, but that mark is up to 79.9% this year (80-81% MLB average).

As Dave C. mentioned, Sabathia is throwing his 93-94 MPH fastball slightly more. Those extra heaters have come early in the count — the 30-year-old has thrown a fastball 72% of the time on the first pitch, compared to 69% in ’09 and 64% in ’08 (the MLB average is about 66%). According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, that fastball is getting fewer whiffs. Hitters are missing the pitch 5.4% of the time that it’s thrown. For comparison, CC induced a whiff 6% of the time with his fastball last year and 6.3% in 2008. The MLB average is around six percent.

But the drop in whiffs is more pronounced on Sabathia’s secondary stuff. Sabathia’s mid-80’s changeup has been whiffed at 17.8%. While the number is still way above the 12.1% big league average, it’s nonetheless a marked drop from his 24.5% figure in ’09 and 24.1% rate in 2008. CC low-80’s slider has a 14.9% whiff rate in 2010, compared to 16% in ’09 and 22.6% in ’08 (13% MLB average).

Despite racking up fewer strikeouts, Sabathia has a quality 3.95 xFIP. How? He’s getting grounders 51.3% of the time this year, up from 44.9% the previous three campaigns. Using Pitch F/X data from Joe Lefkowitz’s site, I broke down Sabathia’s batted ball distribution by pitch type to see from where the extra ground balls are coming. I also included the major league averages by pitch type, provided by Harry Pavlidis.

Sabathia is inducing more grounders with all of his pitches, with the largest increase coming on his fastball. The uptick in grounders has led to more twin killings. Baseball-Reference shows that Sabathia’s double play rate (the number of times he has gotten two or more force outs on a ground ball) is 18%, after ranging from 10-13% from 2007 to 2009. The MLB average is 11%.

CC Sabathia hasn’t been the same overpowering starter this season, using his tumbling changeup and sweeping breaking stuff to garner lots of strikeouts. But he has largely staved off a decline in performance by getting batters to smack the ball into the infield grass more frequently. It will be interesting to see if this is the beginning of a new phase in Sabathia’s career, as he transitions from a high K hurler to a guy who remains effective due to good control and strong ground ball tendencies. Considering that the Yankees owe CC $23 million per season from 2011-2015, they’ll surely have a close eye on the big man.

Thanks to Dave Allen for leading me in the right direction on this piece.


2008 Trade Deadline Deals

We’re going to take the time machine all the way back to July of 2008, assessing some of the deals made around the trade deadline.

Dodgers receive: LF Manny Ramirez
Red Sox receive: LF Jason Bay
Pirates receive: RHP Bryan Morris, 2B/3B Andy LaRoche, OF Brandon Moss, RHP Craig Hansen
Winner: Red Sox, Dodgers

It was time for Manny to leave Beantown, and although the deadline seemed to have passed, these three teams were able to work a deal that would shake the baseball world. Jason Bay found the postseason in Boston and had a huge 2009, putting up 5.0 WAR. Manny said hello to L.A.-L.A. land and was unstrasburgly for the Dodgers, hitting .396/.489/.743 for the boys in blue in 2008. The Pirates, well, they decided to go with quantity over quality, and it bit them. After a nice year from LaRoche in 2009 (2.6 WAR), he’s been awful this season (-0.6 WAR), and doesn’t project to be the line drive hitter he once was. Craig Hansen has had health issues and Brandon Moss was below average, but Bryan Morris does seem to be a promising prospect. Still, Pittsburgh could have done better for Bay.
– – –

Angels receive: 1B Mark Teixeira
Braves receive: 1B Casey Kotchman, RHP Stephen Marek
Winner: Angels

The Braves thought they had found Teixeira’s semi-replacement in Kotchman, but instead they got someone who’d hit .267/.346/.378 at first base, never giving Atlanta anything of much substance. Stephen Marek is 26 years old and floundering in Triple-A. Teixeira? He hit .358/.448/.632 for the Angels and helped get them to the playoffs in 2008. They also used his compensation draft pick to take OF Mike Trout, one of the brightest young outfield prospects in the minors today.
– – –

Dodgers receive: 3B Casey Blake
Indians receive: RHP Jon Meloan, C Carlos Santana
Winner: Indians

Poor Paul DePodesta is an Assistant GM while Colletti gets to make moves like this. While Casey Blake has certainly been valuable for the Dodgers, this one has to hurt LA in the long run. Blake racked up 4.6 WAR last year, but his defense has dropped and his offense is stagnant. He’s on the downside of his career. Santana, meanwhile, is a switch-hitting catcher with a stance just like Victor Martinez and serious power. Blake has been a nice player for LA, but Santana looks to out-WAR him over the next few years, and then some.
– – –

Phillies receive: RHP Joe Blanton
Athletics receive: 2B Adrian Cardenas, LHP Josh Outman, OF Matthew Spencer
Winner: Push

For now, the Phillies generally win because flags fly forever. This one is likely to change in the next few years, but the guarantee isn’t enough there that I’ll give it to Oakland quite yet. Outman has produced a 4.09 FIP and 1.6 WAR for the A’s in 2008-09 (he’s been hurt this year). Cardenas is a slick middle infielder who may be a star one day, but until then is no sure thing. At 22, he’s crushed Double-A pitching, but has stagnated in Triple-A, hitting .242/.305/.337 there in 82 games, and just .228/.285/.281 this year. However, he has time to adjust, and once he does he can be dangerous.
– – –

Brewers receive: SP CC Sabathia
Indians receive: OF Matt LaPorta, LHP Zach Jackson, RHP Rob Bryson, OF Michael Brantley
Winner: Brewers

As well as Mark Shapiro made out in the Blake deal he underperformed in the Sabathia trade. CC helped bring Milwaukee to the playoffs via the Wild Card by throwing seven complete games in seventeen starts with a 1.65 ERA. He was simply outstanding. LaPorta, meanwhile, has struggled in adjusting to the big leagues. In 87 combined games in the majors during his age 24-25 seasons, LaPorta has hit just .240/.301/.377. An OPS of .678 just will not get it done for a guy who was touted for his massive power, especially when he’s a DH trying to play a mediocre outfield and first base.
– – –

Yankees receive: OF Xavier Nady, LHP Damaso Marte
Pirates receive: OF Jose Tabata, RHP Ross Ohlendorf, RHP Jeff Karstens, RHP Daniel McCutchen
Winner: Pirates

While Nady hit pretty well with the Yankees (.270/.319/.469), Marte’s inability to stay healthy and his mediocre pitching gives this to Pittsburgh. The Pirates decided to go with both quality and quantity here, getting a bunch of players who will help them in the long run, highlighted by Jose Tabata. At worst, Pittsburgh can always put Ohlendorf, who majored in Operations Research and Financial Engineering at Princeton, in the front office.


I, Claudia’s: CC Sabnasty

Burt Bacharach was wrong: what the world needs now isn’t “love, sweet love,” but a highly subjective recap of some games from like five days ago.

Friday, April 16
I watched this evening’s (rain-shortened) contest between Texas and New York primarily to “scout” Official Starting Pitcher C.J. Wilson. While Wilson actually performed just fine (6.0 IP, 5 K, 3 BB, 10 GB, 5 FB, 4 LD), my lasting impression of the game will be how CC Sabathia is kinda really good at pitching.

Because I demand it of my writing students, I think it’s probably best to do some showing here — as opposed to just telling, I mean. In the interest of doing just that, allow me to whisk you away to the top of the third inning of tonight’s rainswept game.

Here’s the situation: one gone, Elvis Andrus has just struck out, the lefty-batting Julio Borbon is striding to the plate. CC Sabathia looks in, takes the sign from Francisco Cervelli, and then he does this (taken from catcher’s perspective):

No, he didn’t throw all three pitches at once (although it might’ve seemed like that to the unwitting Borbon). Still, I mean, will you please look at this sequence: two-seamer away, slider in, slider low. If Picasso and Matisse had a baby, and then that baby learned how to make a Pitchf/x graph, this is the sort of graph that baby would produce.

Having watched it on live television, I can tell you that Borbon had barely any idea that the at-bat had even started until Sabathia was winding up to deliver the third and final pitch. Unfortunately, said pitch was a mostly unhittable slider dipping below the zone.

But let’s not pick on Julio Borbon, how about. How about we also pick on Taylor Teagarden. To do so, we must fast-forward to the fifth inning. In this case, there are two outs, and both Chris Davis and Joaquin Arias have struck out to begin the inning. At which point, Sabathia was all:

Blam!

Where Borbon didn’t swing until the last pitch, that was the only one Teagarden didn’t swing at. Considering that Teagarden’s a righty (as opposed to the lefty Borbon), we see that really only the second pitch is one we might consider “hittable,” as it got a little more of the plate with a little less movement. After he fouled of that pitch, Teagarden was basically helpless, down 0-2 to an incredibly effective Sabathia. It’s at this point — after delivering consecutive pitches with considerable arm-side run — that Sabathia threw the slider, a pitch with considerable glove-side run. Teagarden merely let it go. Oops.

Another thing that happened tonight is that I used my Twitter Machine. Below are three choice comments from the evening.

From LloydtheBarber (on the occasion of Fernando Rodney entering a game between the Angels and Blue Jays): Black Lidge! There is still hope for the Jays.

From daynperry (on the occasion of Dick Enberg employing a 19th century vernacular): Dick Enberg just said “base-ballers.” Awesome.

From jazayerli (on the occasion of having been born a Kansas City fan): Two franchises in a nutshell tonight: the Twins threw 27 balls the entire game. The Royals threw 21 balls in the 8th inning alone.

Saturday, April 17
Voice of the Brewers, Mister Bob Uecker, was on the scene for Milwaukee’s afternoon game at the Washington Nationals. While generally in good spirits, Uecker was a little cheesed off with home plate umpire Tim McClelland and his (i.e. McClelland’s) strike-calling.

It seems that, due to the fact that McClelland makes his strike-calling gesture very much in front of his body — that, and the fact that the press box at National Park is directly behind home plate — it seems that it’s hard for a broadcaster like Uecker to see the call until seconds after it’s been made.

Such were the circumstances that led a duly miffed Uecker to announce publicly:

He gives a call… to the catcher. And everybody else has to wait a sec or more for his “pull-back shot.”

And I’ll tell you, from our vantage point, we might as well be at the hotel as far as looking at the sign from Tim McClelland. Terrible.

Sunday, April 18
Second verse, same as the first: another quote from Uecker.

In this case, Uecker was discussing — at some length, it must be said — the dinner he’d had the previous night at Washington-area restaurant Phillips Seafood.

Relating the story to broadcast partner Cory Provus, Uecker mentioned that, as he was eating, he got curious as to whether the restaurant ever served anything besides fish. Which brings us to the following, courtesy of Uecker:

I asked the waitress, “Do you carry Usinger’s Sausage?”

“Wait a second,” she said. “Let me check my purse.”

Sweet graphs courtesy of our own Dave Allen.


World Series Coverage: Phillies Look to Repeat

The 2008 World Champions are back in the World Series in ’09, but the club faces a huge challenge in the form of the New York Yankees, a club that boasts the largest payroll in Major League Baseball. Both clubs, though, have paid a hefty price for their success and both clubs have benefited from the free agent and trade markets.

In fact, neither Game 1 starter was with their respective teams one year ago. Philadelphia’s Cliff Lee was playing with Cleveland, while C.C. Sabathia signed with New York prior to the ’09 season as a free agent. He began ’08 with The Tribe, but was later traded to the Milwaukee Brewers. The two hurlers were teammates for six-and-a-half seasons, so you can bet each pitcher has given extensive scouting reports to their respective offense.

Both aces have been dominating throughout the season and in the post season:

Regular Season
Sabathia: 3.39 FIP, 7.71 K/9, .233 AVG, 6.0 WAR
Cliff Lee: 3.11 FIP, 7.03 K/9, .273 AVG, 6.6 WAR

Post Season
Sabathia: 2.44 FIP, 7.94 K/9, .210 AVG, 0.79 WPA
Cliff Lee: 1.82 FIP, 7.40 K/9, .169 AVG, 0.86 WPA

Sabathia has dominated opponents with a very good fastball-changeup combination, while mixing in some average sliders. Lee, on the other hand, relies heavily on a good fastball, while mixing an assortment of average pitches and maintaining excellent control. Who has the edge? My gut says New York, mainly because the hitters have, on average, seen a lot more of Lee than Philly has seen of Sabathia.

New York has yet to announce who will pitch in Games Two and Three, but Philly will follow Lee with veteran Pedro Martinez — who has seen a lot of the Yankees during his time in Boston — and the disappointing Cole Hamels. The Phillies club has also activated pitcher Brett Myers for the World Series. The free-agent-to-be was on the NLCS roster, but he was removed for the NLDS. Utility player Miguel Cairo was deleted from the active roster.

Through the nine-game post-season, the hottest hitters for the Phillies have been:
Shane Victorino (.361/.439/.722)
Jayson Werth (.281/.395/.813)
Ryan Howard (.355/.462/.742)
Carlos Ruiz (.346/.500/.500).

The biggest disappointments have been:
Jimmy Rollins (.244/.279/.317)
Pedro Feliz (.161/.212/.355).

In order to repeat as World Champions, Philadelphia will have to get to the Yankees’ top starters, including Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte. In the bullpen, both Mariano Rivera (eight appearances) and Joba Chamberlain (seven) have been overworked in the nine-game post-season. As well, outside of Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez, the offense has been inconsistent. But as any American League fan can tell you, New York’s offense is always one at-bat away from exploding.


Best Pitching Performances #5-#1

This morning, our topic of discussion involved the bottom half of the top ten pitching performances of 2008, as determined by single-game WPA. As mentioned then, no pitcher accrued an individual game WPA above +1.0 this season, but there were still some absolutely fantastic outings. For posterity’s sake, numbers ten through six were:

10) Bronson Arroyo, 8/26 @ Hou:   0.660 WPA, 9 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
9)  Roy Oswalt,     9/6 @ Col:    0.676 WPA, 9 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
8)  James Shields,  5/9 vs. LAA:  0.685 WPA, 9 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K
7)  Jeff Karstens,  8/6 @ Ari:    0.695 WPA, 9 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
6)  Matt Cain,      7/24 vs. Was: 0.707 WPA, 9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

And here are the top five:

#5: Cliff Lee, 5/12 vs. Toronto
Cliff Lee had a remarkable season. After having to fight for his job in Spring Training, Lee went onto win the 2008 AL Cy Young Award. Without attempting to stir any discussions about Lee/Halladay, his top performance of the year, via WPA, occurred on May 12, against Doc’s team. Lee pitched a complete game shutout, scattering seven hits and two walks over nine innings, striking out five in the process. At the end of the day, Lee was putting the finishing touches on an incredible streak to start the season, earning a 0.715 WPA.

#4: Josh Banks, 5/25 vs. Cincinnati
Jeff Karstens seemed a tad out of place on this list, but at least there are plenty of people who have heard of him. Banks, however, is not well-known, and did not have a very solid 2008 season, yet he somehow managed to harness everything he has into the fourth best performance of the season. For those that do not remember, this 5/25 Padres/Reds game was the one that went 18 innings. Banks pitched six fantastic relief innings, surrendering five hits and no runs to go with two walks and four strikeouts. His work earned him a 0.718 WPA.

#3: Jesse Carlson, 4/16 vs. Texas
Keeping with the theme of relievers earning high WPA marks, Jesse Carlson of the Blue Jays found himself in quite the predicament against the Rangers early in the season. BJ Ryan had blown the save in the ninth inning, and the Rangers were again threatening in the tenth. Brian Wolfe allowed the first three batters to reach base safely, and was lifted in favor of Carlson. Jesse entered into a bases loaded, no outs, situation, and managed to get out of it, recording a “Houdini” in the process. He would pitch two more scoreless innings, limiting the baserunners to one hit and two walks, while striking out four. The Rangers would win the game, but Carlson recorded a 0.721 WPA for his stellar work.

#2: Ben Sheets, 9/6 vs. San Diego
Ben Sheets has always been the guy with the ridiculous “stuff” and potential to be fantastic if he could stay healthy. We got to see a lot of him this year, and he didn’t disappoint, but none of his games were better than the one on September 6. Against the Padres, home at Miller Park, Sheets tossed a five-hit, complete game shutout, walking one and fanning seven. His 0.729 WPA for the day placed him second on our list, though quite the distant second behind the best performance of the season.

#1: CC Sabathia, 6/10 vs. Minnesota
How could a list like this not have Sabathia? An eventual teammate of second-place Sheets, Sabathia’s game on June 10 actually occurred before he was sent to Milwaukee. Back when he was a member of the Indians, CC tossed a five-hit, complete game shutout, with no walks and five strikeouts. His single-game WPA, the best of any game for a pitcher this year, was 0.775, significantly better than everyone else on this list.

Nobody may have produced single-game WPAs above +1.0, but it is tough to imagine, after seeing these games, what someone would have to do to accomplish such a feat.


Highlight #1: Sabathia, ‘Nuff Said

Well, here we are, my top highlight of the 2008 season. In third place was Chipper Jones and his quest for a .400 batting average that kept us all entertained well into June, and second place involved everyone, including the notoriously tough Phillies fans really pulling for Junior Griffey to hit that 600th home run. First place, however, is a no-brainer for me, and goes to CC Sabathia’s absolutely incredible performance this season. And I’m not just talking about his statistics in a Brewers uniform, but while with the Indians as well.

CC started the season rather poorly, as after four games, his numbers were: 18 IP, 32 H, 27 ER, 14 BB, 14 K, an OPS of 1.170, and a 13.50 ERA. Over his next 14 starts, all with the Indians, Sabathia allowed just 25 earned runs, two less than his total in the initial four. He walked just 20 while striking out 109 and allowing only 85 hits in 104.1 innings. This resulted in a .591 OPS against and a 2.16 ERA. It is irresponsible and incorrect to ignore his atrocious first four starts, but he managed to put together a tremendous 14-start stretch before even landing a plane ticket to Milwaukee.

Following the trade with the Brewers, Sabathia had a somewhat wild first start in the senior circuit but followed it up with three straight complete games, one of which was a shutout. In these three starts, he amassed 27 innings, allowed just 15 hits and three earned runs, walked just three hitters and struck out 26 of them. All told, in 17 starts with the Brewers, he threw seven complete games, produced a K/BB ratio above 5.0 (128/25), and a 1.65 ERA.

Put together, he made 35 starts, threw 253 innings, walked 59, fanned 251, and surrendered 2.70 earned runs per nine innings. In case you are curious just how good he was following those four atrocious starts to begin the year–or just how bad those four starts were–here are his stats from starts #5-35: 235 IP, 191 H, 45 BB, 237 K, .570 OPS, 1.88 ERA, 5.27 K/BB, 2.45 FIP. Again, it is incorrect to ignore those starts, but this what Sabathia did from the end of April until the end of the season. He virtually willed the Brewers into the playoffs, and made four straight starts to close out the season on three days rest. His numbers in that span? 28.2 IP, 24 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 26 K, 1.88 ERA.

With the Brewers, he surrendered 4 ER just once, never venturing higher than that number. Three earned runs were allowed twice; Two earned runs on four occasions; 1 earned run six times; and no earned runs in four different starts. That is domination. His lowest game score was 43 and he produced a game score of 70+ in seven of 17 starts for the Brewers. I have never followed a pitcher, or watched each of his starts, for a team other than my own, except for Greg Maddux prior to this season. From the time Sabathia joined the Brewers, though, I found myself tuning into each and every one of his starts, growing more and more impressed with each passing pitch. His tremendous season, especially with Milwaukee, is my top highlight of the 2008 season.


Every Sabathia Has Its Myers

First off, this post will not discuss anything involving CC Sabathia’s statistics in the playoffs this or last year. Unlike mainstream media outlets, I do not care about the sample size of five games started–1 in 2001, 3 last year, and 1 this year–and I am not automatically going to jump on the his-arm-was-tired-from-so-many-games-on-3-days-rest bandwagon. Is it possible? Sure, but I’m not fully convinced and am not going to make a leap just to sound like I have a concrete opinion on the matter. If I don’t, I’m not going to lie. Instead, what I want to discuss from yesterday’s Phillies-Brewers game is Brett Myers… and I don’t even mean his pitching.

No, I want to discuss Brett Myers‘ plate appearances against Sabathia yesterday, since they resulted in about 1/5 of Sabathia’s total pitches thrown. First, some context!

In the bottom of the second, with the Brewers leading 1-0, CC retired Pat Burrell before Jayson Werth hit a double to left-center. Pedro Feliz then stepped up to bat, and I, along with several other sports bar patrons all spoke of how Sabathia should just throw slider after slider to Feliz, since he really struggles with anything other than fastballs. Hmm, sounds like another Pedro–5 points to whomever guesses which one! Sure enough, CC hung a changeup and Feliz doubled in Werth to tie the game 1-1. Carlos Ruiz then grounded out, advancing Feliz to third base, but making the second out, meaning that it was very unlikely the Phillies would take the lead. After all, Brett Myers, one of the worst hitting pitchers in baseball, was up, with two outs, against one of the best pitchers of the last five years.

What ensued was a shocking nine pitch plate appearance in which Myers not only fouled pitches off, but managed to lay off of some extremely close ones. Sabathia looked visibly frustrated and eventually walked Myers. He then walked Jimmy Rollins before Shane Victorino hit the grand slam. While Victorino will get most of the credit for the Phillies win, I would definitely adjust the WPA of this game to give more credit to Myers, since his plate appearance had an extremely unlikely result and allowed the inning to extend, which in turn allowed Victorino to hit the grand slam.

The Phillies led 5-1 and Myers was cruising. In the fourth inning, Sabathia and Myers met again, this time for an epic 10-pitch at bat in which Myers eventually flew out to centerfield. Once again, he laid off and fouled off pitchess. And it wasn’t as if CC just threw fastballs: each time he pretty much reached back and gave Myers everything in his repertoire. If the Brewers win the next two games, it will set up a likely Sabathia-Hamels matchup in Philadelphia, where CC can look for some redemption. He was wild yesterday, and frustrated at his supposed inability to retire one of the worst hitting pitchers in the game, but this is not CC Sabathia. Brett Myers may get credited with a pitching win and a solid line on the mound, but his time at the plate really helped change this game as well.


Revisiting the Sabathia Deal from Cleveland’s Perspective

Given the recent impact that the C.C. Sabathia trade has had on the playoffs, let’s revisit the move that brought the burly left-hander to the National League and the Milwaukee Brewers. We all know what Sabathia has done for the Brewers in the second half of the season, so let’s look at how the prospects received by Cleveland did this past season.

Outfielder Matt LaPorta was the prospect with the highest profile, as a former first round pick who has put up impressive minor league numbers. He struggled, though, after coming over from Milwaukee and hit just .233/.281/.350 in 17 Double-A games before heading to the Olympics where he was beaned by a pitch and sat out the remainder of the season as a precaution.

In a small sample size, LaPorta’s walk rate plummeted after the trade from 13.0 percent to 6.3 percent, while his strikeout rate remained roughly the same around 20 percent. His power stroke also disappeared as his ISO dropped from .288 to .117, and his OPS went from .957 to .631. He’s likely earned a ticket back to Akron in 2009 to begin the season.

Zach Jackson is a former supplemental first round pick (32nd overall in 2004 by Toronto). He is a soft-tossing lefty who projects as more of a middle or long reliever than a starter. Jackson, 25, appeared in 11 Major League games (nine starts) combined between Cleveland and Milwaukee in 2008. He posted a 5.55 ERA (4.61 FIP) in 58.1 innings. He allowed 69 hits and 16 walks to go along with 31 strikeouts (4.78 K/9). He’ll have to battle for a roster spot in 2009.

Rob Bryson was a name that wasn’t known by many people before the big trade. The 20-year-old, who has split time between the starting rotation and bullpen, spent the season in A-ball. He appeared in just seven games after coming over from Milwaukee after suffering from shoulder inflammation and possibly a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder. He has the ability to hit the mid-90s when healthy.

When the Brewers secured the playoff berth, it allowed Cleveland to pick a fourth prospect, as a player to be named later. That player is expected to be named today and should be either outfielder Michael Brantley or infielder Taylor Green.

Both prospects are interesting but they project as bench or platoon players. Neither player has much power but they are both versatile. Brantley has a slightly better chance of being a regular, at least for a few seasons, due to his amazing strike zone judgment and speed (28 stolen bases in 36 attempts). He hit .319/.391/.398 in 420 Double-A at-bats. He walked 50 times (10.6 BB%) with just 27 strikeouts (6.4 K%). His ISO is a paltry .079. Green hit .289/.380/.443 in 418 High-A at-bats. He walked 61 times (12.7 BB%) with 59 strikeouts (14.1 K%). His ISO was a more respectable .153.

Obviously, none of the players above have impacted Cleveland like Sabathia has affected Milwaukee, but 2009 could be a whole different story, especially if Milwaukee is bounced from the 2008 playoffs early on and Sabathia walks for a larger free agent payday. Until then, though, Milwaukee has definitely won this deal.


Protesting the Appeal

CC Sabathia continued his National League dominance yesterday with a one-hit shutout against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The hit, which came in the fifth inning, was a little squibber back to the mound off the bat of recently acquired Andy LaRoche. Sabathia left the mound and went to make the seemingly routine play, but bobbled the ball and decided any further effort would be futile. The official scorer ruled the squibber a hit, and CC could no longer pitch a no-hitter.

In watching the replay several times, I firmly believe that if Sabathia fielded the ball cleanly he would have thrown LaRoche out. If Andy clearly would have beaten the throw regardless of the bobble, then I am definitely in favor of ruling the play a hit, but the bobble did seem to prevent Sabathia from completing the play.

Following the game, Brewers skipper Ned Yost looked livid as he lambasted the Pirates’ scorer for ruling the ball a hit. I thought it was such a peculiar response given that CC just pitched a one-hitter and the team had a great game. Then, a couple of hours later, the ESPN bottom line informed me that the Brewers plan on protesting the call to get it changed to an error. Their hope, I guess, is that the protest is upheld, the hit becomes an error, and Sabathia magically has a no-hitter.

While I mentioned earlier that I agree the play probably deserved an error as he would have thrown the baserunner out had he not bobbled the ball, I am almost as livid as Yost that they would even attempt this ridiculous move. You cannot just change the past without considering actions from that step forward. Say Sabathia does get charged with an error there… it does not guarantee that the rest of the game plays out exactly the way it did. Perhaps the next inning he gives up a double and a home run. Perhaps he pulls his groin and has to leave the game in the seventh inning. Perhaps the pressure of sustaining a no-hitter would mount and get to CC; or, adversely, perhaps the Pirates hitters would “try harder” in an attempt to avoid being no-hit.

The possibilities are endless, but the point remains that you cannot just magically change one event in a game after the fact and expect that everything else would remain the same. Those who saw that Ashton flick know what I’m talking about. This is very similar to when announcers allude to the fact that if a certain run scored earlier in the game, their team would lead by two instead of one going into the ninth; as if they think everything else would have remained the same. What if that run did score earlier, and led to a big rally? Or, what if the run did score, and then the opposition came out and scored four of their own.

All of these are hypotheticals, but they all point to the fact that you simply cannot change what you do not know. You cannot change the call from hit to an error and then award Sabathia a no-hitter because you have no idea exactly what would have happened from that point on had the ruling been different. Maybe it would have stayed the same, but since we do not know it would not be prudent to guess. I’m sure this protest will be denied, as I’m not the only one who will find it ridiculous, but is this really what the Brewers are concerned about at this point?

Or, maybe they are just taking the Michael Jordan approach right now… you know, where MJ used to get so bored that he would stir something up or purposely take a facial gesture the wrong way to motivate himself. Maybe the Brewers are so used to Sabathia dominating the NL already and are bored by it that they need to find a way to keep the themselves pumped up. I honestly have no idea, but I do know that attempting to get a hit from the fifth inning turned into an error in order to give someone a no-hitter, after the fact, even though nobody knows what would have happened from that point on, is utterly ridiculous.