As Craig Calcaterra correctly points out at Hardball Talk, Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost has somewhat joylessly brought ultra-utility types aboard the American League All-Star roster instead of selecting players with bigger reputations.

But can ya blame Yost? You might recall that he got wicked close to winning a World Series just nine months ago. In a Game 7 where every last doggone base was weighted with incomprehensible leverage, playing that game at home nudged forward the Royals’ chances at winning by precious, precious percentage points. With this year’s Royals actually plausible World Series contestants — as opposed to their then-implausible candidacy at this time last year — Yost has unique motivation to play the All-Star Game to win.

Read the rest of this entry »

If you’re a Yankees fan, you probably know that Chris Young (the hitter) has been on a bit of a tear lately, forcing himself into the starting lineup on a daily basis. If you’re a general baseball fan, you also might know that Young is from Houston, Texas. How would you know a sort of random bit of information like that? Most likely because there are two known Chris Youngs, the hitter: Mr. Young the usually fringy outfielder, and Mr. Young when he’s playing in Houston.

The former Mr. Young we’ve known for some time. He had a ton of expectations put on him early in his career, a few momentary flashes of what could have been, then he’s bounced around in a fourth-ish outfielder role for a number of clubs in the past few years. He owns a career line that supports such a role:

A little power, a little speed, but not really enough there to merit full-time work. Young is almost 32 years old, so the ship sailed long ago on him becoming the guy people expected when he was called up. However, the main point: there’s a place on some major-league team for a guy like Chris Young, even if there barely is, and even if that role is limited in nature.

Read the rest of this entry »

In the offseason after winning the 2014 award for American League Comeback Player of the year, Chris Young — that’s the exceptionally lanky pitcher Chris Young, not the merely lanky hitter Chris Young — received zero attention on the free agent market. It took until about mid-way through Spring Training until a team signed Young — on March 7, the Royals signed him to a very interesting one-year contract with a $0.675M base salary and a whopping $5.325M in incentives. That’s very little guaranteed money, though, especially compared to the 2014 National League Comeback Player of the Year, Casey McGehee, who is guaranteed to earn $4.8M from the San Francisco Giants this season despite performing below replacement level thus far.

Jeff explored Young’s lack of a market in late February, pointing out that Young is riskier than most pitchers because of both his frighteningly extensive injury history and perhaps also because of the uniquely large gulf between Young’s ERA and his FIP. Even though Young’s BABIP of .238 in 2014 was actually in line with his through-2013 career rate of .258, it also makes sense that no teams were eager to snap up a pitcher who compiled a 5+ FIP the previous season after missing the entire season prior to that. Read the rest of this entry »

A victim of what amounts to one of the deeper stables of starting pitching, Chris Young opted out of his contract with the Washington Nationals with the hopes that he could find a major league role in another city. The Nationals could ostensibly retain Young’s services should he fail in that pursuit, but it’s plausible that there will be several organizations interested.

Young, 33, is not so young anymore. The hulking 6-foot-10 right hander has had two shoulder surgeries in the last four seasons, limiting his major league innings from 2009 through 2011 to just 120. His 2012 comeback was a mixed bag, as he posted a 4.50 FIP, a 16.2% strikeout rate, and the characteristic high fly ball rate, flirting with 60%. His fastball has been in steady decline since he broke into the league in 2004, averaging just 84.6 mph in 2012 and almost all reports out of Spring suggested he was sitting in the 80-82 mph range frequently.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Arizona Diamondbacks had a disappointing 2012 season and the front office has identified key areas in which the team must improve. The outfield isn’t one of these areas, as the Diamondbacks now boast five players who could all stake a claim for a starting role, whether in Arizona or on another team.

They could conceivably make things work if everyone was retained, but that seems like a sub-optimal use of valuable resources. With platoons — both traditional and non-traditional — and injury risk, carrying four or five competent outfielders is often necessary. However, trading one or two of these players could solve issues elsewhere on the diamond. The team would still boast a solid outfield while improving in other key areas. But determining who to trade isn’t as straightforward, as non-performance factors must be taken into consideration.

The Diamondbacks currently have Justin Upton, Chris Young, Adam Eaton, Jason Kubel and Gerardo Parra under contract. Upton is the most talented of the group as well as the most expensive. Eaton is a top prospect under team control that played well in a small sample of September plate appearances. Kubel is a strong hitter who can’t run or field who is signed to a team-friendly contract. Parra is an average hitter under team control with excellent fielding marks. Young is a terrific defensive centerfielder capable of 20/20 production under team-friendly contractual terms.

The team is likely to retain Upton and play him in right field. The team also seems intent on playing Eaton in center field, which means that Young seems like the odd man out. He could shift to left field, but part of what makes him valuable would get eliminated in the process. Given his age, fielding skills, offensive pop and contract status, as well as the free agent market developing at the position, Young would instantly become a very attractive trade target if he were made available. Dealing him makes the most sense for the Diamondbacks, as he has become expendable with Eaton’s presence on the roster, and could extract the most value in return.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Arizona Diamondbacks have gone fishing for a replacement for injured outfielder Chris Young. The organization purchased the contract of prospect A.J. Pollock from triple-A.

Prior to the 2012 season the outfielder ranked as the 13th best player in the minor league system, which has one of the strongest collection of prospects in the game. He was the club’s first round pick (17th overall) out of Notre Dame in 2009.

Pollock, 24, has faced some adversity in his career and missed the entire 2010 season after elbow surgery but he has rebounded admirably. The right-handed hitter came back last year and hit more than .300 in double-A with 41 doubles and 36 steals (43 attempts). Moved up to triple-A in 2012 he was hitting .340 with six doubles in the 12 games prior to his promotion. The knock on the outfielder is that he lacks the range for centerfield but doesn’t possess the power that teams typically covet with their corner outfielders. His ceiling currently sits at platoon or fourth outfielder.

With Jason Kubel and Gerardo Parra swinging from the left side, Pollock could be a nice complement (along with Justin Upton) from the right side. The time frame is currently unknown for Young’s return from a torn ligament in his shoulder but Pollock should have a significant opportunity to prove the scouting reports wrong.

Look for him to provide the Diamondbacks offence with a decent average with a good number of doubles and some steals mixed in. Despite the fact that he’s a rookie, Pollock is a better top-of-the-order option than either Willie Bloomquist or Aaron Hill (although Pollock could stand to be a little more patient).

I have a strange affinity for the Home Run Derby. It spawns from watching re-runs of the old school Home Run Derby TV series, originally aired in 1960. The rules were different back then — two hitters went head-to-head, squaring off in a nine-inning “game” in which each batter got three outs per inning. If a player didn’t swing at a pitch in the zone, it counted as an out. Between turns, a batter would kick back and chat with host Mark Scott. The winner got a check for two grand and the chance to defend his title the next week against a new opponent. The list of those who competed — Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle among them — is a who’s who of all-time greats.

It’s true, the current form of the Home Run Derby doesn’t compare to its progenitor. The field of contestants doesn’t always include a cavalcade of stars. Sometimes, it seems like hitters take 20 pitches right down the middle before letting ‘er rip. And, the broadcast of the event really should come with a public service announcement imploring viewers to turn down the volume, lest they be haunted in their sleep by shrieks of “backbackbackback.”

Yet, despite its flaws, I watch intently. There’s something enthralling about those majestic moon shots. This year, the list of derby contestants includes Miguel Cabrera, David Ortiz, Nick Swisher and Vernon Wells from the American League, and Corey Hart, Matt Holliday, Hanley Ramirez and Chris Young from the National League. While I don’t claim this will have any predictive value — having a BP coach lobbing mid-60’s fastballs down the pike is quite another thing from game conditions — I thought it would be fun to take a closer look at tonight’s contestants. Where do they hit their homers, how hard are they hit, and how far do those taters travel?

Here’s a chart showing where the HR derby competitors have gone yard this season. I listed switch-hitter Swisher’s numbers from both sides of the plate:

Not surprisingly, most of the contestants’ home run power comes to the pull side of the field. Cabrera is crushing the ball both to the pull side and the opposite field — his home run per fly ball percentage to the pull side is 65 (27.2% MLB average for RHB), and it’s 14% to the opposite side (2.8% MLB average for RHB). Hart and Ramirez have also gone to the opposite field more than most, while Ortiz and Swisher have hit a decent number of homers to center.

Courtesy of Greg Rybarczyk’s Hit Tracker Online, here’s how the HR Derby contestants rank in terms of speed off the bat on those homers. The MLB average, for comparison’s sake, is 103.4 MPH:

Wells (106.8 MPH) leads the pack, followed by Holliday (106.1), Cabrera (105.2), Ortiz (104.2), Ramirez (104.1), Young (102.7), Swisher (102.3) and Hart (101.9).

Who’s hitting the longest homers? Hit Tracker measures the “Standard Distance” for home runs hit. From the site, here’s the definition:

The estimated distance in feet the home run would have traveled if it flew uninterrupted all the way down to field level, and if the home run had been hit with no wind, in 70 degree air at sea level. Standard distance factors out the influence of wind, temperature and altitude, and is thus the best way of comparing home runs hit under a variety of different conditions.

Here’s how the derby hopefuls rank in terms of Standard Distance homers. The MLB average is 393.8 feet:

Wells (406.5 Feet) and Holliday (406.1) again rank first and second. Ramirez (400.2), Ortiz (398.8), Cabrera (396.8), Swisher (396.4) and Young (394.5) all best the big league average, while Hart (392.5) comes in below that mark. Hart is tied for the major league lead in “Just Enough” homers, with 10. Just Enough’s, per Hit Tracker, clear “the fence by less than 10 vertical feet,” or land “less than one fence height past the fence.”

And finally, to pre-empt against any cries of “the derby screwed up his swing!,” here are the contestants’ current wOBA totals, as well as their projected rest-of-season wOBA figures from ZiPS. In other words, here’s what they have done so far, and here’s what we can reasonably expect in the second half:

Six out of eight project to hit worse in the second half. Some of these guys have greatly exceeded their previously established level of performance. Even accounting for the spike in production (ZiPS incorporates data from the current season), they figure to regress somewhat when games resume Thursday. If Hart doesn’t continue hitting bombs at a prodigious rate, it’s not because of some HR derby hex — it’s the product of regression to the mean.

Earlier this week, Dave discussed Padres SP Chris Young and his inability to hold runners, essentially claiming that the former basketball prospect is worse at holding runners than anyone else in baseball is at any other skill. The data certainly matches this accusation, as baserunners are 131-144 off of Young in his career, a 91% success rate. In 2007, Young was historically bad, allowing 44 steals with nary a runner being caught. It is easy to blame the catcher for not throwing runners out but this definitely says more about Young than his backstops.

Curious to see who else has had historically bad seasons I queried my Retrosheet database for all seasons since 1954 in which runners attempted at least 30 steals off of a particular pitcher with a success rate of at least the break-even mark of 75% and sorted by success rate. For the record, though pickoffs are factored into failed stolen base attempts, they are ignored for the purposes of this post.

Not surprisingly at all, Young’s 44-44 in 2007 topped the list. Right behind him is A.J. Burnett, also in 2007, who saw 31 runners successfully swipe bags without any being thrown out. These are the only two seasons that match the querying criteria featuring a 100% success rate.

Four different pitchers benefited from having just one runner gunned down: Dennis Eckersley (34-35) in 1977, Mark Clear (33-34) in 1983, Tim Wakefield (30-31) in 1996 and Dustin McGowan (29-30) in 2007.

That 2007 season does not look too good for pitchers and their ability to hold runners on. Not only does the season house three of the six worst seasons in the Retrosheet era but it also saw Greg Maddux allow 37 steals out of 39 attempts, along with Tim Wakefield and Jose Contreras exceeding the break-even point at 41-49 and 25-31 respectively.

Nine of the 20 worst seasons in this regard have occurred since 2000, while only one took place prior to 1960: Glen Hobbie allowed 30 steals in 32 attempts for the Cubs back in 1959. There are not many pitchers who appeared on several occasions on this list, likely due to the fact that they changed some aspect of their delivery to circumvent the issue.

The most frequent violators were Nolan Ryan (10), Greg Maddux (9), Dwight Gooden (7), Joe Niekro (7), Mike Krukow (6), Tim Wakefield (6), Dennis Eckersley (5), Tom Candiotti (5), Bert Blyleven (5), and Hideo Nomo (5). These pitchers were predominantly either knuckleballers, those with freakishly long windups or notorious for caring very little about the running game.

The numbers and reputations of some of these pitchers certainly suggests that success can still be obtained with no ability to control the running game but they comprise a very small sample of the amount of successful pitchers. Chris Young lacks the stuff of a Nolan Ryan, Greg Maddux and Dennis Eckersley, so he really needs to fix this problem because it is only a matter of time before runners truly exploit his flaw.