In discussing Thursday how Jose Bautista has been, without question, the best and most valuable player in the American League this year, the topic of where his first “half” ranks historically was raised. Bautista played 84 games through the break and tallied 6.6 wins above replacement. Last year, he finished with 6.9 WAR in an excellent breakout campaign. He essentially matched his production from a year ago in half of a season.

Nobody else is even close to him this season either — it would actually take the combined WAR totals of Adrian Gonzalez and Jay Bruce, an MVP candidate and an All-Star, to match his singular productivity. But where does his 6.6 WAR total through the first half of the season rank?

According to our splits data and the yeoman work of David Appelman, Bautista’s 6.6 WAR is the second-highest total since the 1974 season. That was the first year in the sample given the full availability of detailed event information on a game-by-game basis. Babe Ruth produced insane totals in 1920 (14.1), 1921 (14.4), 1923 (15.4) and 1927 (13.2) but we don’t have the capability of determining his totals through the same period.

In any event, here are the top four WAR totals through July 10 in a given year from 1974-2011:

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Frank Thomas, a.k.a. “The Big Hurt,” officially retired today. However his career ended, his up-and-down (but hardly bad) 2000s makes it hard to recall his utter dominance in 1990s. I’m not going to get into the Hall-of-Fame debate about Thomas or designated hitters. Yes, we have to adjust for his defensive “contribution,” but fortunately, Wins Above Replacement does just that. The “FanGraphs Era” currently only extends back to 2002, so for some historical WAR perspective, let’s compare some career WAR numbers from Sean “Rally” Smith’s historical WAR database.

Frank Thomas 75.9
Pete Rose 75.4
Johnny Bench 71.4
Brooks Robinson 69.2
Edgar Martinez 67.2
Duke Snider 67.2
Eddie Murray 66.7

To repeat: these numbers adjust for Thomas’s non-contributions on defense. If you think the players below him on that list are Hall-quality, then Thomas, who was “only” a monster hitter, should get in, too.

Enough of that, let’s discuss Thomas’s greatness as a hitter. For this, I calculated linear weights using data from the Baseball Databank. I use the same basic version of custom linear weights/wOBA that FanGraphs does, but having it on my own database just allows me to manipulate the data for stuff like this.* The linear weights (aka “Batting Runs” or wRAA) are customized so that each event is weighted properly for each season. The runs above average are park-adjusted (thanks, terpsfan). I then convert them to wins, which further reflects the relative value of a run in that season.

* There are probably some slight differences due to discrepancies in source data, different park adjustments, etc. but it’s very close. The batting runs also differ from Rally’s, since his weights are adjusted to reconcile on the team- rather than league-level. Neither is “right” or “wrong,” they are simply two different perspectives.

The top six career leaders in Batting Wins Above Average since 1955 (the first season Baseball Databank records intentional walks):

1. Barry Bonds 126.3
2. Hank Aaron 108.5
3. Willie Mays 91.0
4. Frank Robinson 89.7
5. Mickey Mantle 83.0
6. Frank Thomas 71.5

Granted that good chunks of Mantle and Mays’ value came before 1955… that’s still impressive company. Among those with career numbers inferior Thomas are: Jeff Bagwell (64.0), Willie McCovey (62.8), Harmon Killebrew (60.0), Mark McGwire (56.9), Jim Thome (55.4), and Sammy Sosa (34.8).

Another way of judging impact is to compare overall career numbers with peak value in order to separate guys who just hung on. So let’s look at Thomas and two other great hitters of somewhat recent vintage and compare their career Batting Wins, their top three seasons, and the five-year continuous peaks:

Edgar Martinez
Career Batting Wins Above Average: 54.4
Career wRC+: 151
Top Three: 18.0 (6.8 in 1995, 5.6 in 1996, 5.5 in 1997)
Five-Year Peak: 27.5 from 1995-1999

Mark McGwire
Career Batting Wins Above Average: 56.9
Career wRC+: 161
Top Three: 22.1 (9.3 in 1998, 6.7 in 1996, 6.1 in 1999)
Five year Peak: 30.1 from 1995-1999

Frank Thomas
Career Batting Wins Above Average: 71.5
Career wRC+: 158
Top Three: 20.6 (7.1 in 1991, 6.8 in 1994 [!], 6.7 in 1992)
Five-Year Peak: 31.4 from 1992-1996 (includes 1994 strike)

I included Edgar because of the recent discussions about him, and also because, while he was obviously a great hitter, I wouldn’t have thought his numbers would stand up so well against say, McGwire’s. They aren’t quite as good, but they are in the same territory. McGwire was obviously great, but I think not only Thomas’s career numbers, but arguably his peak was better, too. His five-year peak is slightly better, and though his top three seasons (or best one) aren’t quite as good as McGwire’s, his second and third best seasons are better than McGwire’s.

Moreover, both Thomas’s top three and five-year peak both included the strike-shortened 1994 season. Regression to the mean tells us that Thomas likely wouldn’t have continued at that rate, but do you think he would have hit at a league-average rate or below the rest of the season? There are a lot of “what ifs” in baseball, of course, and in 1994 in particular, as Expos fans know. But 6.8 Batting Wins in 113 games is simply astounding. And keep in mind that the AL was the more difficult league starting in the 1990s.

I’m not sure what better compliment to end on other than to say that when all three were at the top of their game(s), Frank Thomas was a more dominant hitter than Mark McGwire and Edgar Martinez.

Frank Thomas turns 41 years old on May 27, has not played over 27 games in the field since 2003, and is coming off of a poor 2008 season that, though marred with injuries, resulted in a league average .328 wOBA. Perhaps the average offensive output, deemed abysmal by many, speaks more for the career of Thomas than the season itself; you’re probably in good baseball shape when a .328 wOBA is considered poor compared to the .363-.421 range posted over the previous six seasons. Thomas is a sure-fire Hall of Fame player, with a .301/.419/.555 line, a .416 wOBA, and 521 home runs. Heck, with a bit more luck on the injury front, Thomas could be in line to approach the Willie Mays mark this season. He could hang up his cleats right now and walk away as one of the best hitters we have seen in a while.

But Frank Thomas does not want to retire. Instead, Frank has seemingly adopted the age-old spring training cliche that he is in great shape. In fact, Thomas recently stated he feels capable of mashing 35-40 home runs, and is surprised that nobody has made any type of bid for his services. With all of the corner outfielders and potential designated hitters on the market this offseason, Thomas became an afterthought, perhaps not even a worst case scenario. Good reasoning exists behind his lack of appeal, though, as Thomas has played 140+ games just three times in the last eight seasons. Combine that with the attributes mentioned at the very beginning of this post and it is not hard to see why teams are not exactly jumping to sign the former MVP.

Thomas’s balls-in-play rates last season were not too far off of his 2006 and 2007 marks, when he hit well enough to post wOBAs of .391 and .372 while launching a total of 65 dingers. His .282 BABIP actually surpassed the .251 mark produced in 2006, when he had a monster season. He sustained a solid BB-rate and didn’t see too drastic a jump in his K-rate either. So what happened? For one, Frank’s 7.9% HR/FB not only fell below the league average, but was essentially cut in half from the 15% HR/FB averaged since 2002. On top of that, his power output vanished. Since 2005, Thomas has seen his ISO decline from .371 to .275 to .203 to just .134.

If the nagging quad injury really hurt The Big Hurt’s production, and he checks out physically, why aren’t more teams calling? After all, without even factoring in a rebound from injury, Thomas still projects to be worth around +1.3 wins. Maybe, like Ray Durham, Thomas does not want to play for a bargain-bin salary or a non-guaranteed contract. Maybe he feels that with a fully healed quad, his production would more closely resemble the +2.4 wins amassed in 2007 or even the +3.3 wins supplied to the Athletics in 2006. The big elephant in the room of course is that he doesn’t check out physically.

Then again, if he were willing to accept a non-guaranteed contract or performance based deal, this wouldn’t be an issue. Just like the Eric Gagne deal, if Thomas makes the team he earns some money, and if he produces up to the standards he holds himself to, he would make even more. Frank Thomas is nowhere near as bad as he looked in 2008, with +0.2 win production, but let’s not kid ourselves into thinking he is going to rebound into a +4-win player again. He could still help a team but it would have to be on their terms. We’ll have to wait and see if Thomas is too proud to play that way.

He did so back in 2006 to prove he could still hit, but who knows if he really wants to do that again. Maybe he feels that the 2006 and 2007 seasons suffice as showing what he can do and the 2008 campaign should obviously be considered a blip on the radar. This clearly is not obvious to GMs and I would venture a guess that Thomas doesn’t sign prior to Opening Day. No matter what, he has still put together one heck of a career.

One thing the Oakland Athletics organization does not get enough credit for, thank to the media focus on its drafting philosophies, is finding diamonds in the rough. In recent seasons, the Athletics have found players in the bargain bin only to squeeze unexpected value from them. That list includes such players as Jack Cust, Shannon Stewart, Andrew Brown, Jack Hannahan, and Frank Thomas (version 1.0).

The same can be said for minor league players in the system… Now these players may not have a major impact like Cust did when he hit 26 homers in 2007, but minor league depth is vitally important for a franchise to be successful. As such, let’s take a look at some of the more interesting players the Athletics organization has added to its system via minor league free agency and the waiver wire.

At 6-1, 165 pounds, third baseman Jesus Guzman does not look like a slugger, but he currently has 18 doubles and 12 home runs in 276 at-bats for the Double-A Midland RockHounds. The 24-year-old minor league free agent pick-up is also hitting .355/.405./.565. Last year at High-A ball (albeit in the hitting haven of High Desert), Guzman hit .301/.370/.539 with 25 homers, 38 doubles, 102 runs scored and 112 RBI. Why did Seattle give up on this guy? The organization likely cut ties with him because his big 2007 came after two not-so-great seasons at Double-A. But that comes with a caveat because Seattle did what is becoming a disturbing trend. It rushed Guzman. He came to North America, after signing out of Venezuela, and was immediately placed in High-A ball at the age of 20. He then was pushed to Double-A the next season and he averaged about .258/.334/.388 for the next two seasons before moving back down to High-A ball and thriving.

Jon Zeringue, 25, has been a nice find for the A’s organization and has provided solid numbers for Double-A Midland since being picked up out of an independent baseball league last season. The former second round pick of the Arizona Diamondbacks was, like Guzman, rushed through the minors and struggled with Double-A before being unceremoniously released. This season he his hitting .290/.383/.504 with 11 homers and 42 runs scored in 238 at-bats. He has a .340 average against southpaws and 10 of his 16 hits have been doubles.

Wes Bankston is a forgotten member of the Tampa Bay Rays’ ridiculous minor league depth. Drafted out of high school, the slugging first baseman hit .301/.346/.569 with 18 homers in 246 Rookie Ball at-bats in 2002. Two seasons later in A-ball, he slugged 23 homers and drove in 101 runs and sat amongst the Rays’ best prospects. Then injuries slowed his ascent and the organization experimented with an ill-advised conversion to third base. After a disappointing offensive season at Triple-A in 2007, at the age of 23, Bankston was removed from the 40-man roster to make room for a new wave of talent and was claimed on waivers by the A’s. Bankston is still struggling at Triple-A as his plate discipline has diminished along with his power but he is still young enough to recapture his past approach and secure a part-time Major League job.

From all appearances Brooks Conrad is a perfect fit for the Athletics organization. The former eighth round pick of the Houston Astros out of Arizona State University was never given a fair shake in the organization despite above-average offensive numbers as a second baseman, including 40 doubles, 15 triples and 24 homers in Triple-A in 2006. Conrad did not even sniff a Major League plate appearance in seven seasons in the Astros organization. His numbers are not looking so hot this season but Conrad could still have some value on a major league bench, in part due to his grinder mentality, if he can improve his average. He is currently hitting .227/.293/.446 with 13 homers in 242 at-bats.

Casey Rogowski is a former White Sox prospect. The left-handed hitting first baseman has always intrigued teams with his raw power and surprising base running skills for a 6-3, 230 pound man. He has stolen more than 15 bases seven times and surpassed 20 twice. However, he has only exceeded 15 homers once, although he is on pace to do it again this season and is currently hitting .273/.347/.444 with nine homers in 216 at-bats. Rogowski has also taken his fair share of walks in his career. He is yet another player who could eventually find part-time employment at the Major League level.

You don’t win big without taking a little risk and thinking outside the box, which is what these players represent. They won’t be superstars and some of them may never play at the Major League level for the Athletics but, as mentioned, the organization is one of the best when it comes to squeezing value out of other organization’s rejects and failed projects. These five players all possess the potential to join the likes of Cust and Hannahan at exceeding expectations.

The Toronto Blue Jays released disgruntled designated hitter Frank Thomas this afternoon, several days after deciding that he wouldn’t be a regular in their line-up anymore. Thomas was unhappy with that decision and made sure the team knew about it, so they made the decision to part ways.

The initial reaction to this may be something of a surprise, since there are several MLB teams who Thomas would represent an upgrade at DH for. However, once you begin to look at his contract, the picture becomes a bit clearer. Thomas has a $10 million option for 2009 that vests if he receives 376 plate appearances this season (based on a 1,000 PA threshold over the ’07-’08 seasons combined). The Blue Jays, obviously, had no interest in paying him $10 million next year (no other club wants to either), so their options essentially included turning him into a part time player or releasing him. They tried the former and Thomas threw a fit, putting two and two together to realize that his benching was more about money and less about performance.

By releasing Thomas, they save themselves from having him on the hook next year, but also cost themselves a major league hitter in a season where they are trying to contend in the A.L. East. While Thomas got off to a slow slart, his overall skillset is essentially the same; his BB% and K%, and HR/FB% are all essentially the same, and four of his ten hits have gone for extra bases. Here are his patience, contact, and batted ball charts:

He’s still a flyball, power hitting, right-hander with a good eye at the plate and good enough contact rates – the early results are based on a ridiculously low rate of getting balls in play to find holes.

Thomas’ speed makes him unlikely to post a BABIP of league average or higher, but his current rate is unsustainable. The ball will start finding holes, and Thomas’ production will rebound much closer to last year’s performance. The first several weeks of his season don’t give us any real reason to expect Thomas to continue to struggle like this.

It will be interesting to see who bids on his services as a free agent. Since he was released, the Blue Jays contract does not carry over to the new team that signs him, and the vesting option is no longer an issue. Teams like the Mariners, A’s, and Yankees should all be interested in his services, and it wouldn’t be that surprising to see a small bidding war break out for The Big Hurt. While the contract the Jays gave Thomas nullified his trade value, there will still be teams interested in adding that bat to their line-up.