* My apologies for the late posting of San Diego’s Top 10 prospects… but I think the wait was well worth it, especially if you picked up a copy of the FanGraphs Second Opinion fantasy baseball companion (It’s 582 pages)!

General Manager: Jed Hoyer
Farm Director: Randy Smith
Scouting Director: Jaron Madison

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The Padres organization doesn’t get a ton of ink or love, but it has some really solid prospects – especially in the Top 5 of the Top 10 list. On the downside, the club has a big backlog at third base and the corner outfield positions.

1. Simon Castro, RHP, Low-A
DOB: April 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-95 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Castro took a big leap forward in 2009 at low-A ball as a 21-year-old pitcher. The right-hander posted an impressive 2.80 FIP while allowing just 118 hits in 140.1 innings of work. Castro also showed excellent control (2.37 BB/9) while missing a lot of bats (10.07 K/9). The prospect has a big, strong pitcher’s frame at 6’5” 200 lbs, but he’ll have to watch that he doesn’t get too big. It won’t be such a big deal while pitching in San Diego, but Castro’s ground-ball rate was a tad below 40% so it would be nice to see him improve his worm-burning rate.

2. Logan Forsythe, 3B, Double-A
DOB: January 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – University of Arkansas
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Forsythe or Darnell. Darnell or Forsythe. Take your pick. Along with Edinson Rincon, the club has impressive depth at the hot corner. The big league club also has a pretty good young player at the position in the Majors in Chase Headley. Of the trio in the minors, Forsythe is my pick. He had a solid ’09 season while playing in both high-A and double-A. At the junior level, the right-handed hitter batted .322/.472/.504 in a very good hitter’s environment. Moved up to double-A, he hit .279/.384/.377 in 244 at-bats. Although he held his own against all pitches, Forsythe enjoyed facing southpaws in ’09, with a .951 OPS (compared to .821 versus right-handers). The drop in power after his promotion (ISO from .182 to .098) is a little worrisome, but Forsythe should still hit for average and get on base (20% walk rate in high-A). He even showed some smarts on the base paths with 11 steals in 13 tries. The 23-year-old prospect will need to cut down on his strikeouts (25.8 K% in double-A).

3. James Darnell, 3B, High-A
DOB: January 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – University of South Carolina
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A step behind Forsythe, Darnell began the year in in low-A as a 22-year-old and hit .329/.468/.518 in 222 at-bats. He then batted .294/.377/.553 in 235 at-bats after a promotion to high-A. Although Darnell does not project to hit for average as consistently as Forsythe, he has a little more reliable pop in his bat (ISO of .189 in low-A, .260 in high-A). Like his fellow third base prospect, he shows patience at the plate, but he whiffs less often (16.2% in high-A). Darnell is the more athletic of the two third basemen so he’s more likely to switch positions (second base, right field) and Forsythe has a solid defensive profile (including a strong arm) for the hot corner.

4. Jaff Decker, OF, Low-A
DOB: February 1990 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – Arizona HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Because of his age (19), Decker was kept in low-A ball all season despite solid numbers. He posted a triple-slash line of .299/.442/.514 in 358 at-bats. The left-handed hitter showed above-average patience at the plate with a walk rate of 18.7% but his strikeout rate was a tad high at 25.7%. With that said, he does show power potential after posting an ISO of .215. At 5’10”, 200 lbs, Decker is going to have to watch his conditioning if he’s going to stick in the outfield. He also doesn’t hit quite as well against southpaws (.881 OPS) as he does against right-handers (.962 OPS).

5. Wynn Pelzer, RHP, High-A
DOB: June 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 9th round – University of South Carolina
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Pelzer has risen rather quickly through the system and should begin 2010 in double-A. The right-hander uses a solid two-pitch repertoire (and a developing change-up), as well as a solid ground-ball rate (53%) to produce nice minor league numbers. He posted a 3.30 FIP in high-A despite playing in a very good hitter’s park. He showed average control and posted a walk rate of 3.52 BB/9 and a respectable strikeout rate of 8.78 K/9. His HR/9 rate of 0.36 was very encouraging. Pelzer has some work to do against left-handed hitters (1.49 vs 1.03 WHIP).

6. Edinson Rincon, 3B, Short-season
DOB: August 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2014 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

With Headley, Forsythe, and Darnell ahead of him, the organization can be patient with the raw Rincon. The right-handed hitter had a lot of success in short-season ball in ’09 after two years in rookie ball. The teenager hit .300/.415/.468 in 267 at-bats and showed solid patience with a walk rate of 14.2%. His strikeout rate was high at 22.5% but he showed some developing power with an ISO rate of .169. Rincon has a strong arm but he may soon out-grow the position and move to right field (or first base, but his arm would be wasted there).

7. Cory Luebke, LHP, Double-A
DOB: March 1985 Bats: R Throws: L
Signed: 2007 supplemental 1st round – Ohio State University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 87-91 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Luebke, a southpaw, started the year in high-A and allowed 73 hits in 88.1 innings. He also posted a FIP of 2.58. He showed excellent control (1.73 BB/9) and posted a good strikeout rate of 8.15 K/9. Moved up to double-A, he had a 3.83 FIP and was a little more hittable (38 hits in 41.1 innings). Although he posted allowed a similar batting average against both right-handed and left-handed hitters on the year, Luebke showed a better ground-ball rate against lefties (58.2 vs 47.8%) and a more impressive strikeout rate (10.00 vs 6.70 K/9). He projects to be a No. 3 or 4 starter in the National League.

8. Aaron Poreda, LHP, Majors
DOB: October 1986 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 1st round – University of San Francisco (Chicago AL)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, slider, change-up

A prized acquisition from the White Sox (in the Jake Peavy deal), Poreda has a good arm even if some of the shine has come off of him a bit since being drafted in the first round. The left-hander sacrifices some velocity for control but he can still reach the mid-90s with his heater. The big issue with him, though, is that his secondary pitches have never been overly strong. After making 11 starts in double-A at the beginning of the year, Poreda had mixed results in triple-A. He also made 14 appearances, all out of the ‘pen, at the MLB level for both the White Sox and the Padres. In 13.1 innings, he posted a 4.45 FIP and allowed 10 hits and 13 walks.

9. Lance Zawadzki, SS, Double-A
DOB: May 1985 Bats: B Throws: R
Signed: 2007 4th round – San Diego State University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A personal favorite of mine, Zawadzki is on the cusp of making the Majors, possibly as a utility player. The shortstop had a solid line in double-A in 09 and hit .289/.372/.416 in 346 at-bats (He began the year in high-A and had 145 at-bats). The switch-hitter does a little bit of everything but nothing overly well. He stole 14 bases in 15 tries and showed a nice line-drive swing. His strikeout rate is high (21.4%) for his modest power (.127 ISO). Zawadzki had more success against southpaws in ’09 but his BABIP played a big part (.408 vs .293).

10. Sawyer Carroll, OF, Double-A
DOB: May 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – University of Kentucky
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Carroll beat out a couple of other outfielders for the 10th and final spot on the prospect list. A corner outfielder, he had a nice offensive season while playing at three levels during his first full pro season. The left-handed hitter produced a triple-slash line at low-A (where he had his most at-bats) of .316/.410/.464. He continued to hit above .300 at all stops and he stole a total of 19 bases in 27 tries. He also laced 40 doubles and showed a good eye at the plate with a walk rate above 13%. If his power doesn’t develop a little bit more, Carroll should slid into a fourth outfielder’s role in the Majors.

Up Next: The Seattle Mariners

This week we’re taking a look at some of the leader boards in double-A and high-A ball. Today, we’ll take a look at the leaders in Isolated Power (ISO) and wOBA (For an explanation on this stat, check out HERE) among the three high-A leagues: the California League, the Carolina League and the Florida State League. I want to add a caution with this league, though. The California League, is an extreme hitter’s league, so many of the numbers are inflated. The Carolina League is also an above-average hitter’s league, although not as potent as the Cal League. The Florida State League is widely considered a pitcher’s league, so the offensive numbers will not be as gaudy.

.366- Jonathan Gaston | OF | Houston

Gaston has absolutely exploded this season, thanks in part to the launching pad that is Lancaster (and the league in general). The strikeout rate is worrisome (28.2 K%) but the left-handed hitter is also walking at a respectable rate (12.3 BB%). Gaston, 22, has an intriguing mix of power (27 HR) and speed (12 SB, 13 3B). He was barely a blip on the radar entering the 2009 season.

.300- Joseph Dunigan | 1B/OF | Seattle

If you need proof of the power of the California League, look no further than Dunigan. He had a batting average of .231 in short-season ball in 2007, and .240 in low-A ball last year. This season the 23-year-old is hitting .303 and has hit more homers (22) than he did in his first two seasons combined (18) and in half the at-bats. On the plus side, his walk rate has improved, while the strikeout rate dropped from 32.5 in 2008 to 27.8 K% this season.

.279- Alex Liddi | 3b | Seattle

Liddi could not even hit .250 in his past two full seasons in low-A ball. A move to high-A ball, though, has seen his average jump from .244 to .352 (a difference of .108). His ISO also increased from .116 to .279. A raw player when he signed, Liddi is still only 20 years old, so some of his improvement is probably for real, but he’s not THIS good. Double-A will be a real test for him, especially with a walk rate of 7.8 BB%.

.459- Thomas Neal | OF | San Francisco

Along with Gaston, Neal is one of the biggest legitimate breakout candidates in the California League. The 21-year-old outfielder spent the 2008 season rounding back into shape after missing almost all of 2007 with a shoulder injury. His power and batting average have certainly received a boost from the league, but Neal has good plate discipline for his age (10.3 BB%, 19.6 K%) and he had good power numbers in the South Atlantic League last season.

.456- Jonathan Gaston | OF | Houston

See above.

.442- Logan Forsythe | 3B | San Diego

James Darnell has received a lot of attention for his strong offensive season. However, Forsythe was drafted in the same year and has had a very nice offensive season as well – and one level higher than Darnell. After a strong first half in the Cal League, Forsythe, 22, was promoted to double-A (thus making room for Darnell in Lake Elsinore’s lineup) and he’s continued to hit above .300 with a .160 ISO and a .400 wOBA in 22 games.

.284- Cody Johnson | 1B/OF | Atlanta

Baseball players don’t come much stronger than Johnson, but the 20-year-old has significant holes in his swing. As a result, despite massive power numbers, career strikeout rate of 37% is a huge red flag for this future quad-A slugger.

.239- Pedro Alvarez | 3B | Pittsburgh

Alvarez has received a lot of attention for his low batting average, high strikeout totals and lack of conditioning, but despite everything that’s gone wrong with his season, he’s still hitting for impressive power. The 22-year-old former first-round pick received a surprise promotion to double-A recently and he is currently hitting .280 in 22 games. His power has also remained strong, although his walk rate of 5.7% and his strikeout of 34.1% suggest his numbers are set to nosedive.

.232- Brandon Waring | 3B | Baltimore

Obtained last season (along with Justin Turner) from Cincinnati in the Ramon Hernandez trade, Waring is a power-hitting third baseman who will likely struggle to hit for average in the Majors (and possibly triple-A). He’s actually done a nice job to trim his strikeout rate from an average of 33% in his first two seasons to 25.6% in 2009 at high-A ball.

.423- Kris Watts | C | Pittsburgh

Wow, a catcher with a wOBA of .423! But don’t get too excited. Watts is playing in high-A ball at the age of 25, and it’s his second straight season at the level. You also have to like his BB/K rate of 1.55.

.396- Cody Johnson | 1B/OF | Atlanta

See above.

.388- Lonnie Chisenhall | 3B | Cleveland

Chisenhall got off to a scorching start in April and May before fizzling in June (although his power remained consistent). He’s begun picking things up again and he’s still having a well-above-average offensive season, despite the off month. A little more patience at the plate (8.8 K%) could help him take his game to the next level.

.218- Dominic Brown | OF | Philadelphia

One of the names that might get dangled in a potential Roy Halladay trade, Brown is a dynamic young outfielder whose season was slowed by an injury. Despite that, he is showing increased (and somewhat unexpected) power potential in a league where it’s tough to hit for power. Brown also has the ability to steal 30 bases and play above-average defense.

.199- Chris Parmelee | OF/1B | Minnesota

A former first-round pick, Parmelee has moved slowly and quietly through the Minnesota organization. The left-handed hitter is already four years into his pro career, but he’s still just 21 years old. After struggling to hit above .240 in the past two seasons, Parmelee is up to .261 in 2009 while showing good power – and he’s trimmed his strikeout rate by 10% to 25.4%.

.198- Ike Davis | OF/1B | New York NL

Davis got off to a brutal start to his pro career in 2008 after being a first round draft pick. Last season he hit zero homers in 215 short-season at-bats and had an ISO of just .070. This season, though, he’s hit seven homers in high-A and another five since his promotion to double-A (27 games). It remains to be seen how well he’ll hit for average.

.410- Dominic Brown | OF | Philadelphia

See above.

.404- Darin Mastroianni | OF/2B | Toronto

Mastroianni had a terrible first full season in low-A in 2008 as he struggled to receive playing time behind some of the Jays’ top high school draft picks from the 2007 draft. He even moved to centerfield at one point, from his natural second base position. The speedster has blossomed this season and looks like a potential big-league utility player in the Ryan Freel mold. Mastroianni stole 32 bases in 39 attempts, before moving up to double-A, where he’s nabbed 13 bags in 14 tries.

.390- Cody Cipriano | 2B | Tampa Bay

Cipriano’s career has actually paralleled Mastroianni’s almost eerily. However, the Rays prospect doesn’t have the Toronto farmhand’s speed. Cipriano does, though, have a little more strength, although it’s gap power so he looks like a future utility player.