Change of Scenery Struggles to Hit Its Weight

Each winter we’re treated to the swapping or signing of former high draft picks, once productive players who have worn out their welcome, or players previously thought to have a great future devoid of on-field results. When the local media narrative begins, these players are often referred to as those who might benefit from a “change of scenery.”

“It might be just what the doctor ordered to get back on track.”

“Never felt comfortable in (insert city).”

“Needs a fresh start,” they’ll say.

Objectively, it feels rather silly to think in this game of inches that a new cut of grass, color of stirrups, or fan base might provide an entirely different result for players. But count me among the many fans who frequently think it just might work. And yet, examples of it working out are few.

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Open-Market Value — The Free Agent Team

A couple of years ago, Sky Andrecheck used the power of hindsight to see if an MLB team could have built a 2009 playoff contender using only players who were available on the free-agent market that previous off-season. The only caveat was that this team had to have a league-average budget. Using actual WAR and salaries, Andrecheck pieced together the perfect 25-man roster — actually 18, since he left his bullpen to fend for itself with replacement-level players — and on Aug. 24, his hypothetical team was on pace to win 96 games. And it all happened for the bargain price of $78.6 million.

While this is an interesting exercise, and one I replicated for the 2008 season, I don’t need to tell you that a pretty strong team could have been built on the backs of 2011 free-agent steals such as Bartolo Colon, Brandon McCarthy, Jhonny Peralta and Ryan Vogelsong. Instead, Mr. Dave Cameron, in his infinite generosity, has given me a budget of $80 million FanGraphs Pesos to piece together a free-agent team for next season, without the benefit of hindsight. In case you’re wondering, the ratio of FanGraphs Pesos to Schrute Bucks is 3:1.

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Doumit’s Days in Pittsburgh are Numbered

Earlier this week, the Pittsburgh Pirates signed free agent first baseman Lyle Overbay to a one-year, $5 million contract. Overbay’s addition moves Garrett Jones to right field to platoon with Matt Diaz, another free agent pick-up. And, with Chris Snyder set to start behind the plate, the Overbay signing further diminishes Ryan Doumit’s role with the Pirates.

Considering that Doumit’s $5.1 million salary makes him the second-highest paid player on the team (Snyder technically makes more at $5.75 million, but the Bucs got $3 million from Arizona last July to cover a portion of his contract), it’s highly unlikely that he opens the 2011 season in Pittsburgh. But, if and when the Pirates do find a trade partner, they won’t obtain much more than salary relief.

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Doumit’s Rough Defensive Season

Since the Pittsburgh Pirates selected him out of a Washington prep school in the second round of the 1999 draft, Ryan Doumit’s calling card has been his bat. The switch-hitter compiled a .293/.366/.454 line in the minors, managing to stay on the prospect periphery despite numerous injuries and a defensive reputation that produced an unfortunate nickname: “Ryan No-Mitt.”

Pittsburgh’s previous front office regime, led by Dave Littlefield, appeared ready to pull the plug on Doumit’s catching career. The club had Doumit log considerable time at first base and right field over the 2006-2007 seasons, while the injuries (including a torn hamstring and a sprained wrist and ankle) continued to pile up. Neal Huntington and company had a different philosophy, however. While Doumit wasn’t considered a defensive standout, they reasoned that his positional value was still greatest behind the dish. At first base or a corner outfield spot, Doumit’s bat didn’t stand out near as much.

The Pirates were rewarded handsomely for that decision in 2008, as Doumit posted a .367 wOBA in 465 plate appearances. According to Sean Smith’s Total Zone defensive system, which grades a catcher by stolen bases, caught stealing, errors, pick offs, passed balls and wild pitches, splitting the data by handedness and comparing a catcher to the league average, Doumit cost the Bucs five runs defensively. Catcher defense remains a hazy area for sabermetrics, but the trade-off appeared to be well worth it — even with -5 D, Doumit rated as a three-and-a-half win player. After the season, the Pirates inked Doumit to a three-year, $11.5 million contract that locked him up through his arbitration years. The deal also included a club option for the 2012-2013 seasons (at a total cost of $15.5 million) that must be exercised or rejected after the 2011 campaign.

Since then, things haven’t gone near as well for Doumit. He suffered a wrist injury that required surgery in 2009, putting up a .306 wOBA in 304 PA and rating as a -1 defender in limited playing time. This season, his bat has bounced back (.331 wOBA in 296 PA), as he’s not hacking as much as last year and his BABIP has climbed more toward his career average. Normally, a backstop hitting better than the league average would be a very valuable commodity. But, from the metrics we have on catcher D, it appears that Doumit is sadly earning that prospect nickname this season.

In 2010, 74 runners have taken off with Doumit behind the plate. Sixty-six of them (89 percent) have come up safe. Among qualified big league catchers, Doumit’s 11 percent CS rate is by far the lowest. He also leads the NL in passed balls, with six. According to Total Zone, Doumit has already been nine runs worse than the average MLB catcher. Matt Klaassen has developed his own defensive rankings for catchers (methodology here), grading backstops by linear weights above or below average on fielding errors, throwing errors, passed balls, wild pitches and caught stealing. His most recent update in late June had Doumit dead last among all catchers. Even though Doumit is having a good offensive year and has remained healthy aside from a few games missed with a concussion, he has yet to crack the one WAR plateau.

Chances are, Doumit’s not this bad defensively — Total Zone has the 29-year-old as a -8 run catcher per 135 games during his career, while he’s currently at -17 runs per 135 games in 2010. But the re-emergence of “No Mitt” has been an unwelcome development during yet another trying season in Pittsburgh.


Erik Kratz, the All-Star

Erik Kratz is not a household name. Even if you follow Minor League Baseball on a regular basis you’ve probably never heard of him. He’s never been at the top of the prospect lists for either of the organizations he’s played for: Toronto and Pittsburgh.

Kratz is 29 years year. He’s played eight minor league seasons, seven of which came in the Toronto system. He signed his first contract in 2002 after playing at a small college in Pennsylvania. The catcher began his playing career in Medicine Hat, Alberta, Canada (a now-defunct affiliate). Kratz is also one of the few Mennonite players in professional baseball.

You may not have heard about Kratz, but any pitcher who has ever thrown to him probably remembers his name. Toronto minor league pitchers used to rave about throwing to the defensive specialist. Kratz excels at game calling and receiving. He also regularly throws out 30-35% of base runners attempting to steal. His career offensive line is an uninspiring .248/.316/.419 but he possesses intriguing power and Kratz has never had the ability to play everyday – at least until this season, his inaugural year in the Pirates organization.

In his first true opportunity to play everyday, Kratz is currently hitting .269/.327/.428 with five homers and 17 doubles in 201 at-bats. He’s also a perfect 6-for-6 stealing bases and he’s creaming left-handed pitchers with a .357 batting average (a career-long trend). Recently, Kratz was named to the triple-A all-star game, which was held last night. He went 2-for-2 with a double and a homer and was named the game’s MVP.

At the age of 29, time is running out for Kratz but he certainly has something left in the tank. His years of playing the backup should have helped to ease some of the strain on his body from the rigors of the position. He has more than enough offensive potential to justify a back-up role on a big league club (not unlike Sal Fasano). Kratz’ defense is above-average, he’s a smart player and a good teammate, from all reports. The Pittsburgh Pirates organization already has four catchers on the 40-man roster, including Ryan Doumit, Jason Jaramillo, Robinzon Diaz, and Steven Lerud. The first three are legitimate big-league players, so Pittsburgh is probably not the right organization for Kratz at this point. With any luck, though, he made a name for himself in front of scouts last night and a team in need of some big-league catching depth will keep Kratz’ name in mind.

No, he’ll never be a big-league star, but Erik Kratz is a perfect No. 3 catcher for just about any organization. He’s one of those unsung minor-league heroes who deserves at least a cup of coffee in The Show.


Doumit Facts

In looking at Brian McCann yesterday I found some interesting parallels between his numbers and those of Pirates backstop Ryan Doumit. Considering the definite lack of national attention thrust upon the Pirates it is pretty safe to say most of non-fantasy baseball playing fans have next to no idea who he is or what he has done this year. With that in mind, here are some Doumit facts:

  • In 75 games he is hitting .336/.377/.549
  • That .926 OPS ranks 11th best in the NL amongst those with 300+ PAs
  • His SLG ranks 12th best with those same parameters
  • He has an AB/HR rate of 23.8, which is in the same vicinity as David Wright, Aramis Ramirez, and Geovany Soto
  • His 2.18 REW is ahead of Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Braun, and Chase Utley
  • His 1.70 WPA/LI ranks ahead of Dan Uggla, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, and Derrek Lee
  • His 13.3% strikeout rate falls in the lowest twenty-five percent
  • His BABIP is a very high .356
  • That BABIP isn’t too crazy considering his 23.2% LD rate (.232+.120 = .352!)
  • His in-season Marcel estimates a .259/.336/.432 clip with six home runs to finish the year
  • That would end his season at .307/.361/.505, good for 18 HR and an .866 OPS

In other words, Doumit has put together a very solid line of stats that are due for a regression but will still look good at season’s end. Though most of the general public has no idea who he is, he has actually been better to date in numerous areas than several all-stars and MVP candidates.