The 20 Best/Worst Groundballing Seasons, 1950-2001
As the title of the post indicates, this is a list of the 20 best and also worst groundballing seasons, 1950-2001, as estimated by the Retrosheet ground-out/air-out (GO/AO) data hosted at Baseball-Reference.
For more on the research here, please don’t hesitate to read the last article in this series or a discussion of same at Tango’s Inside the Book blog. I’ve also included a brief discussion of some name on this list after the leaderboards.
Here are the 20 best groundballing seasons (xGB% is Expected Groundball Percentage and xGB+ is xGB% relative to league average in the relevant season):
Pitcher Team Year GO/AO xGB% LgAvg xGB+ Steve Trout* CHC 1984 3.62 67.9% 43.2% 157 Tommy John* LAD 1978 3.72 68.4% 43.9% 156 Tommy John* LAD 1977 3.87 69.2% 44.6% 155 John Denny PHI 1983 2.90 63.5% 43.9% 145 Kevin Brown FLA 1997 2.99 64.1% 44.4% 144 Bob Stanley BOS 1982 2.82 62.9% 44.3% 142 Tommy John* NYY 1988 2.57 61.1% 43.2% 142 Bill Swift SEA 1988 2.57 61.1% 43.2% 142 John Denny CLE 1981 2.79 62.7% 44.6% 141 Kevin Brown FLA 1996 2.70 62.1% 44.3% 140 Dennis Lamp CHW 1982 2.68 61.9% 44.3% 140 Orel Hershiser LAD 1984 2.45 60.1% 43.2% 139 Kevin Brown TEX 1989 2.47 60.3% 43.3% 139 Jerry Reuss* LAD 1982 2.60 61.3% 44.3% 139 Tommy John* LAD 1976 2.50 60.5% 43.7% 138 Kevin Brown TEX 1990 2.37 59.5% 43.0% 138 Ray Fontenot* NYY 1984 2.40 59.7% 43.2% 138 Al Brazle* STL 1950 2.24 58.4% 42.2% 138 Chuck Rainey CHC 1983 2.50 60.5% 43.9% 138 Bill Swift SFG 1993 2.43 60.0% 43.5% 138
Here are the 20 worst groundballing seasons:
Pitcher Team Year GO/AO xGB% LgAvg xGB+ Sid Fernandez* NYM 1989 0.35 21.6% 43.3% 50 Eric Milton* MIN 1998 0.43 25.7% 44.3% 58 Sid Fernandez* NYM 1992 0.42 25.2% 43.2% 58 Herb Score* CLE 1955 0.41 24.7% 41.6% 59 Sid Fernandez* NYM 1990 0.43 25.7% 43.0% 60 Sid Fernandez* NYM 1986 0.45 26.6% 43.7% 61 D. Eckersley CLE 1977 0.47 27.4% 44.6% 61 Kevin Foster CHC 1995 0.48 27.8% 44.6% 62 Luis Tiant BOS 1977 0.49 28.2% 44.6% 63 Sid Fernandez* NYM 1988 0.47 27.4% 43.2% 64 Catfish Hunter OAK 1973 0.49 28.2% 44.4% 64 Bill Butler* KCR 1969 0.50 28.6% 45.0% 64 Rick Helling TEX 2000 0.48 27.8% 43.5% 64 Sid Fernandez* NYM 1985 0.49 28.2% 44.1% 64 Roger Moret* BOS 1974 0.49 28.2% 43.7% 65 Rick Helling TEX 1998 0.50 28.6% 44.3% 65 Eric Milton* MIN 2001 0.50 28.6% 43.5% 66 J.H. Johnson* OAK 1978 0.51 29.0% 43.9% 66 Connie Marrero WSH 1952 0.49 28.2% 42.4% 67 Denny Neagle* COL 2001 0.51 29.0% 43.5% 67
Notes:
• Of Tommy John, whose name appears frequently on the leaderboard, The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers says, “John threw a sinking fastball 85 to 90 percent of the time from the beginning to the end of his major league career.”
Said Guide also quotes from John’s biography, as follows:
I was blessed in that my ball naturally broke down. The sinkerball was my meal ticket. But I also learned the mechanics that added to my natural ball movement. I learned them when I was with the White Sox. Ray Berres, the pitching coach there, taught me to throw with my hand position going from straight up to straight down. It takes effort and a lot of practice to throw the ball that way, since the uncorrected tendency is to keep your hand positioned at an angle. It’s called throwing high-to-low, and that’s the way I pitched, driving the ball down with my hand and fingers.
• Sid Fernandez, whose name appears constantly among the most fly ball-oriented of pitchers, was noted for throwing a “rising” fastball — and is, in fact, cited as an example of such at the Wikipedia entry for same. Of Fernandez, Wikipedia notes that Fernandez “was known for throwing a rising fastball from a slightly ‘submarine’ motion.”
• Kevin Brown was sooooooooooo good — not only featuring excellent GO/AO numbers, but also, at his best, posting huge K/BB ratios.
• If we included numbers for 2002-10, Derek Lowe and Brandon Webb would both feature multiple seasons on the top-20 leaderboard and Chris Young would place among the laggards at least twice, I think it is.
• For a spreadsheet with all relevant data, click here.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
There are very good pitchers on both sides of the fence on this one. The take home lesson should be there is more than one way to get the job done. Being a GB pitcher is not automatically better than being a FB pitcher.
Not…entirely true. If you’re a FB pitcher, it really helps to pitch in a more spacious stadium with a good outfield defense, rather than a bandbox. Throwing a lot of flies in a small stadium is a good way to inflate an ERA and shorten a career (see: Helling, Tex; Milton, CIN; Neagle, COL; etc etc). Certainly not a guaranteed ticket outta town but it doesn’t help matters any.
True. Look at Phil Hughes numbers last year. 21 home runs allowed in Yankee Stadium, 5 on the road. He is a right handed fly ball pitcher in a park that punishes them.
Look up Catfish Hunter’s first two seasons with the Yankees.
Actually, it is better to be a fly ball pitcher. The vast majority of HOF pitchers, for whom data is available, were fly ball pitchers. Very few outlier GB pitchers. Lemon and Ford are the only ones who are heavily weighted on the ground ball side.
Actually, adam, it’s better to be a fly ball pitcher named Tom Seaver or Bob Gibson or Sandy Koufax or Steve Carlton than it is to be a ground ball pitcher named Bill Swift or John Denny. The HoF-level, historic talents got guys out on pitches that would be batting practice if thrown by mere mortals. It’s not productive to extrapolate from those guys to the typical pitcher.
I imagine Zach Greinke considered practicing a rising fastball when he was first looking at his infield………then after a looking at his outfield started mumbling about a sinker……eventualy he must have decided to utter his own private mantra “K’s per 9….must raise K’s per 9”
Actually I think his mantra was “demand a trade…demand a trade…”
I’m glad you explained the Webb omission, as I had been surprised not to see his name on the list (having only skimmed the intro clearly limiting it to 2001 and prior).
For a moment there I thought it was because Webb’s ground ball ratio was far higher than his ground ball OUT ratio because the prior Dback administration, in its infinite wisdom, inexpicably chose to fill the infield with guys who had trouble turning ground balls into outs. At least that’s how I remember it. (See, eg, Mark Reynolds, Chad Tracy, Troy Glaus, Alex Cintron, Craig Counsell, etc etc.)
“Sid Fernandez… from a slightly ‘submarine’ motion.”
No. Fernadez was a 3/4 guy, who collapsed his torso a little to make appear slightly lower.
Nowhere near “submarine”.
Pitching around one’s back-fat does not a submariner make, or so the saying goes.
Right, no way was El Sid a submariner. He had a very odd delivery though. It’s like he didn’t rear back all the way to throw, like everyone else. Almost like he stepped first, then threw, rather than doing it in one motion. I’m sure someone can explain it better than I can.
tango’s description seems right. It was like he released the ball late, well into his stride, when his body was at a pretty low angle relative to other pitchers. So he goes deep into his stride, sort of like Tom Seaver, then the ball comes forward, BOOM! ball’s coming out of a low arm angle and at an odd time. I think this had a lot to do with his high K numbers, as I remember his fb being in the low 90’s (paired with a good downward-breaking curve).
Jeff Francis throws a little like this, albeit w/o the sharp curve and high K rates.
I seem to remember hitters saying his delivery made the ball look like it was coming out of his uniform so it was harder to pick up.
It was a unique delivery.
I was a hardcore, 11-year old baseball junkie when the 1986 Worlds Series aired and many of those images are as vivid today as they were 25 years ago. Also, my former legion coach caught Fernandez for a season in the minor leagues and, as the best pitcher he ever had the pleasure to battery with, would talk about him from time to time. Here is what I can recall about El Sid’s delivery and his rising fastball.
Typically, when a pitcher strides toward the plate he separates his hips from his upper torso and arm, lands on the ball of his foot, and accelerates downward, compressing everything back together through delivery. In contrast, Sid’s upper torso stayed relatively compact during his stride and he would land heel first. That was the key. Landing heel first and “rolling” his momentum forward over his leg allowed him to stay low, moving parallel to the ground toward home plate, rather than downhill. He would then attack the hitter from a low 3/4 slot, releasing the ball as he crested the axis of his front leg, a combination that, in contrast to downhill hurlers, made Sid appear as if he was rising upward as he threw. Upward arm action + high rate of backspin = the rising effect Gary Carter always raved about.
Got to give it to Erick Milton, being a FB pitcher in the homer dome and still racking up 3 WAR per season is pretty hard.
Isn’t the Metrodome’s nickname of “The Homerdome” actually a misnomer? I’m pretty sure for years, it’s been pretty neutral for home runs. Maybe in the early days, but that was in comparison to parks of the time. For the last couple of decades, I don’t think it’s been a particularly home run friendly ballpark.
I always assumed the “Homerdome” moniker referred to the strong homefield advantage the fans and acoustic environment gave to the Twins.
And in case anyone was wondering where Greg Maddux is, he’d be 21st on this list, with a 2.42 in his stellar 1995 campaign.
My recollection is that the G/F data from Retrosheet or baseball-reference.com is less reliable before 1988, for what it is worth.
Where does John Tudor’s 1985 season rank?
275 IP
0.46 HR/9
1.60 BB/9
5.53 K/9
80.1% LOB
.236 BABIP
1.93 ERA
I can’t remember a pitcher having a better season with less “stuff”. From memory, I recall the whole season being basically batters pulling groundballs to Ozzie.
85 was also Ozzie’s highest assist year as a Cardinal.
In terms of “stuff”, he’s basically Dallas Braden with Cliff Lee’s control. Imagine Braden throwing up 1.93 ERA with a 6.6 H/9 over 275 IP.
That was an amazing year.
There seemed to be a new lefty going to the NL from Boston and just going lights out every year back then.
It seems to me that the success of flyball vs. groundball pitchers has to do not only with the ballpark they pitch in, but also the era. Sid Fernandez was an excellent pitcher for his era, but in a more home run oriented era like the one we just passed through, he wouldn’t have done nearly as well. Same is probably true of Fernandez’s rotation mate Dwight Gooden. He induced so many FBs that the Mets would often play Howard Johnson at SS. DG probably would have given up a lot of home runs had he pitched in what is commonly referred to as “The Steroid Era.”