The 2022 ZiPS Postseason Odds Are Live!

If you are particularly sharp-eyed, you may have noticed that the ZiPS postseason game-by-game projections are now live.

These projections differ from the in-season projections in a few important ways. Where regular season projections are generally geared more towards a macro view of a team’s fortunes, when we get to the playoffs and have an idea of individual matchups, we can shift to more micro-level projections that reflect the very different ways players are used during the postseason. The ZiPS game matchup tool has a built-in lineup estimator that projects every pitcher’s and batter’s line against every other pitcher and batter, so there is no need to look at a team’s generalized offensive strength. We also use what I call the “full-fat ZiPS” rather than the simpler in-season model; the latter is necessary given the realities of daily updates, but isn’t come October. For some players and teams, this makes a difference. For instance, when all of the Statcast and similar data are baked in, ZiPS likes the Guardians more than it would using the in-season version.

For 2022, I’ve refined my model of bullpen usage, and ZiPS also now does a better job projecting the probability of a close game, which changes the odds of each pitcher being used.

Is the model perfect? Of course not. All models are wrong, but some are useful. The approach I take has benefits in some very specific situations where the seasonal record isn’t a good predictor of performance; for instance, ZiPS saw the Nationals as being far more dangerous to the Dodgers in 2019 than conventional wisdom did by virtue of the team’s ability to concentrate a very large percentage of their innings in a few excellent pitchers. But there’s still more work to be done. For example, I’d like to be able to more accurately predict bullpen workload consequences on a daily basis rather than a series-to-series one.

These odds will be updated continually as we get closer to first pitch in each round and each game’s starters become clear. In situations where the starting pitcher has yet to be named, you will see the starter listed as “TBD,” which represents a weighting of different pitchers who could theoretically start the game in question. Projections for the Division Series will populate after the Wild Card Series have concluded. For the moment, you’ll see their tabs grayed out. In addition to game-by-game projections, you’ll also find series odds, which will update as each series progresses.

Since FanGraphs offers a few different projection tools, I’ve summarized the features of the three — the FanGraphs Game Odds, the FanGraphs Playoff Odds, and the ZiPS Game-By-Game — that are most relevant for the postseason in the table below:

Let the postseason chaos commence!