The Best Version of Justin Turner Yet

Justin Turner is one of the massively successful swing-change guys, which helps to explain why he didn’t have his offensive breakout until he was 29. Some players know what they’re supposed to do, and they keep trying to do it until they figure it out. Turner knew what he was supposed to do, but he didn’t know the right way to do it. Then he changed his entire batting foundation, and the big-league success followed. Plenty of players now have tried to change their swings. Few have managed what Turner has.

Even with many of the successful swing-changers, there was a problem hidden among the benefits. It was a common problem they shared with other fly-ball hitters. These were hitters geared to punish pitches down in the zone, so there was an area to exploit up top. It wasn’t the same for everyone, of course, but it’s something that could be frequently observed. Turner himself did the bulk of his damage below the thigh. Higher than that, he had some issues, but I guess most hitters have some kind of issue somewhere. Nobody’s perfect.

And yet! Turner’s seemingly gotten one step closer. I’ve held onto this theory that pitchers will ultimately have control over the swing-changers, because they can just throw more high fastballs. But, what if the hitters figured out how to adjust? Justin Turner has figured it out. Justin Turner is doing damage everywhere.

Think about the 2017 Dodgers for a second. Hell of a team. Best record in baseball. They’ve still got Clayton Kershaw, the best pitcher in the world. They have Corey Seager, and they have kid sensation Cody Bellinger. Yet the current team leader in WAR is Turner. He’s higher than those three guys, and he’s higher than breakout Alex Wood. Mike Trout, when he got injured, was having a career-best season, and he was worth 3.4 WAR in 206 plate appearances. Turner’s at 4.1 in 274. It’s not quite in line with Trout’s pace, but it’s close enough. Close enough to Mike Trout.

And when it comes to Turner’s season to this point, it might be best summarized in the following image. It might not be *best* summarized here — maybe this is too confusing, or too unfamiliar. But in the following images, red is good, and blue is bad. On the left, Justin Turner’s hitting, from 2014 – 2016. On the right, his hitting from 2017. You’ll notice something.

That vulnerability up top is gone, completely. After three years of struggling to produce consistent offense against pitches around the belt, Turner now is making better decisions, and applying better swings. He hasn’t lost his ability to destroy pitches low; it’s not like he’s just moved his cold zones around. Rather, Turner is just filling up the strike zone, almost entirely. The initial changes he made gave him a boost around the knees. Now he’s seeing the high pitches better, too, leaving pitchers with few options.

Here’s one way of digging into this a little bit, in order to gain a fuller understanding. I split all of Turner’s batted balls into two groups — those that came against higher pitches, and those that came against lower pitches. In this table, you see Turner’s year-to-year split average launch angles.

What I think is the right interpretation is that we’re seeing Justin Turner be more consistent. He’s elevating lower pitches more than ever in 2017, but he’s also not quite getting under those pitches up. That’s one of the potential problems; the hitter swings underneath, and either misses the ball, or pops it into the air. Turner has made more solid contact, and he’s done so everywhere. There’s probably a relation to the fact that he’s having his best-ever season against fastballs. It could be Turner is just bracing himself for a fastball anywhere, and he doesn’t mind where it is in the zone.

Turner has patched up his coldest zone. As a response to his improvement, he’s been seeing fewer pitches in the strike zone than ever. When Turner first broke out, he saw 52% would-be strikes. This year, he’s down at 44%. And given that he’s also a disciplined hitter, the consequences of this are that Turner is drawing more walks, while also less frequently whiffing. Looking at his entire career:

For the first time, the red line has crawled north of the blue line. In this season, Turner has walked 32 times, while striking out 29 times. Remember that this is the strikeout era, where strikeout rates get higher every single season. Within that context, Turner is more of a throwback. Out of every player this season with 250 or more plate appearances, there are but six guys with more walks than strikeouts — Turner, Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, Anthony Rendon, Anthony Rizzo, and Joey Votto. It’s excellent company, but we already knew that Turner was an excellent player. He’s just even more excellent than he used to be. Here’s an alternate image, showing changes in walk and strikeout rate from a year ago:

It’s Turner in yellow, and it’s Turner in the ideal quadrant. You want your hitters to be in the lower right. Turner’s isn’t the most extreme point — he hasn’t improved as much in this regard as, say, David Freese — but you don’t have to be the most improved in order to be improved. Turner already bucked the usual aging curve once, when he figured things out close to his 30th birthday. Now he’s learning only more still, as he plays at 32. You can’t bat .377 in this day and age without doing almost literally everything right.

Justin Turner was once a mediocre bat. After folding in some significant changes, he got a lot stronger against pitches in the lower half. Through a few months of this season, Turner has now learned how to be productive against a pitch almost anywhere. The story here is anything but ordinary, and Turner’s become one of the best players in baseball. I’m honestly not sure if that’ll ever sink in.