The Dodgers’ Confidence in Shelby Miller Is Undeniable

Pitch shape is a sticky trait. And I don’t mean sticky in the spider tack way; rather, sticky in that the trait would hold year over year without volatile fluctuation. When evaluating a small sample, teams and analysts must decide what traits are worth betting on and which are just potential blips in a player’s profile. Depending on the team, there are varying levels of confidence in assessing that predicament and turning it into action. In the case of the Dodgers, there is a demonstrated confidence in their assessments that leads them to take on some risk, but they have no issue in turning that risk into a realized success.

The latest instance of that came on Tuesday, with Los Angeles reportedly agreeing to a contract with veteran pitcher Shelby Miller. The deal is a major league contract, assuring that he’ll be a contributor in the Dodgers’ bullpen from day one. That probably came as a big surprise. Miller hasn’t pitched that much in the last five years after struggling with injuries and sub-par performance. But he isn’t the same pitcher he once was, which we saw in his brief 2022 stint with the Giants, where he posted a 26.1% whiff rate on 57 fastballs thrown and showed off a semi-new slider that made an appearance in 2021 but seems to have been refined.

Miller’s primary fastball has been his four-seamer, but the 2022 version of the pitch is the best it’s been in a long time. The vertical movement on it is similar to previous peaks set in ’21 and ’17, and its movement is nearly 20% above league average. Another trait he had flashed in the past and that seems to have returned is his extension down the mound. It was back over seven feet in 2022, putting him near the top of the league when it comes to releasing as close to the plate as possible. Because of that, Miller’s vertical release point is also the lowest it’s been his career at 5.31 feet; previously, he had been between 5.4 and 5.5. Every inch counts for optimizing a pitch shape, especially when the pitch doesn’t have overwhelming velocity.

To get a better idea of what the four-seamer looks like, here are three whiffs on it from 2022:

September 28

October 2

October 3

Each of the three were located from the middle to the top of zone with mid-90s velocity, and all resulted in a whiff. Against Daulton Varsho, the pitch was smack in the middle of the plate. Any time I see a good hitter miss on a fastball right over the heart of the plate, my eyes open a bit, and while that could be the hitter’s fault, there is a reason why certain types of pitchers consistently get more whiffs on their four-seamer in this area of the zone: vertical movement, extension, and release point.

Another reason separate from a pitch’s own characteristics is how well the pitch works with the others in Miller’s arsenal. As a starter, he threw a variety of pitches including a four-seamer, sinker, cutter, changeup, and curveball, all at various frequencies depending on the year. But in 2022, for the first time in his professional career, Miller attacked hitters with a two-pitch mix: fastball and slider. He only started throwing the latter pitch in 2021, and even then, he used it just 14.3% of the time and had iffy command. But despite the .357 wOBA against it, it might be the pitch that he has long needed.

To understand why, you have to see the slider for yourself:

September 28

October 2

The first was located up and away and would be considered a miss in location by most. But as you can see in the first GIF, it was in the same zone where Miller got a swing and a miss from Ryan McMahon. High breaking balls aren’t always a bad thing; you can use your fastball to make sure they are useful no matter where they are located. On the other hand, when you locate them in a perfect spot, they can be used as a primary pitch, like Miller did against Luis Campusano. Even in a small sample, there are concrete examples of how this pitch plays well with the four-seamer.

There is no doubt that the Dodgers will suggest some further tweaks to Miller, like they often do with pitchers who have a good baseline of stuff, but the important thing here as that you can already see a base for success. Whatever Los Angeles does should only make the current version of himself a little better. Giving Miller a major league contract proves they have the confidence to do that.