2023 ZiPS Projections: Pittsburgh Pirates

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Batters

There’s a lot not to like about this organization, much of which concerns ownership and its commitment to investing in the Pirates’ on-field product. Contrary to the opinions of a surprising number of people, I don’t think the Frank Coonelly/Neal Huntington era was a failure, at least in terms of their contributions. In sharp contrast to the prior efforts of Dave Littlefield or Cam Bonifay, Coonelly and Huntington built up the Pirates in the down years and there was even a brief moment when the team was a real contender. Problem is, when it was time to push the team over the top, to spend all those savings from the leanest of the slash-and-rebuild years on a contender, the investment in the roster never actually came. It turns out that in the eyes of ownership, an even better use of the savings was to not spend it at all and simply keep it. Those Pirates were left to die as ownership served up the Requiem aeternam.

But looking at the players the Pirates have currently, there are some things to like. Now, not a lot of things to like, but there are players scattered throughout the roster who are very good at major league baseball, and the guys who aren’t are at least interesting rather than 32-year-old journeymen (with a couple exceptions that I’ll get into).

Four hitters stand head and shoulders above the rest. I wouldn’t even bet a bite of a mediocre sandwich on Bryan Reynolds actually staying in Pittsburgh for that much longer, but the Pirates have so far resisted calls to trade him. For now, he’s the team’s best player and a top-10 center fielder to boot (preliminarily, that is — ZiPS ranks him eighth). Ke’Bryan Hayes once again demonstrated that his wildly good offensive debut in 2020 wasn’t a fair representation of what his bat is actually like, but he convincingly reaffirmed the idea that his Glove ought to be made of Gold very soon. Some of the expected flaws in Oneil Cruz‘s game were there, but so were the expected strengths, and with just a bit more defense or plate discipline, his upside is nearly limitless. ZiPS is as much a fan of Endy Rodriguez as Steamer is — the position’s underwhelming showing on the depth chart is mostly due to Ali Sánchez’s presence.

I hate to discourage the Pirates from spending money, but spending money on a one-year contract for Carlos Santana is worse than not spending it at all. We want ownership to invest in the Pirates, not simply spend on the biggest, cheapest name-brand veteran available in an attempt to quell some of the franchise’s most vocal fans. If you want to spend $6.7 million on the team, great! Stick that in an index fund to be used on a player who matters at a time that matters. Santana’s been lousy for three years now and he’ll be 37 in April. He doesn’t help the Pirates win now and signing him only hurts them in winning later; plate appearances are a resource just like money, and playing Santana instead of someone else who could possibly have a future with the team is wasteful.

The Pirates will likely have a below-average offense in 2022, but there are reasons to watch them.

Pitchers

The pitchers’ projections are considerably less exciting than those of the batters, but the situation is far less bleak if you look back at least year’s projections. Over a full season in the majors, ZiPS now sees the Pirates with twice as many one-win pitchers as it did this time a year ago. Pittsburgh could actually get through an entire season without using a starting pitcher with an ERA+ projection under 90, and Roansy Contreras has real upside. ZiPS remains a bit ambivalent about Mitch Keller; he strikes out very few batters for a pitcher with his stuff, and his lousy first-pitch strike rate suggests that the walks may not be gone forever. But he showed enough that he at least looks like a viable mid-rotation starter.

ZiPS has Johan Oviedo and JT Brubaker as serviceable fourth starters, and sees things to like in Luis Ortiz. Quinn Priester gets a solid projection for a pitcher with very little upper-minors experience. The computer even thinks Bryse Wilson’s control is just good enough to make him viable despite his inability to punch out batters. ZiPS really wants to take a look at Mike Burrows this year.

The bullpen is largely David Bednar and everyone else. Bednar is solid at the top, but given the lack of utility a solid closer has for a 90-loss team, I still think he’s not long for this roster. As with Reynolds, Bednar is still far enough away from free agency that Pittsburgh won’t necessarily trade him immediately. What I’d like to see the Pirates do with their bullpen this year is use it almost like a mad scientist’s lab from a 1950’s sci-fi movie. Any time a live arm hits the waiver wire, regardless of whether that player is aware of the existence of the strike zone — and on the waiver wire, they usually aren’t — the Pirates should be in on them hard.

Are the Pirates good? No, but they’re at least mildly interesting, which I can’t say for a few of the other cellar dwellers in the league.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Bryan Reynolds B 28 CF 625 551 82 150 28 5 23 68 62 133 5 3
Oneil Cruz L 24 SS 536 485 76 119 21 6 22 68 46 158 15 6
Ke’Bryan Hayes R 26 3B 514 464 59 114 26 3 9 42 44 108 13 2
Endy Rodriguez B 23 C 520 469 64 119 34 3 14 66 42 114 2 2
Kevin Padlo R 26 3B 414 369 51 85 21 2 13 48 38 115 7 2
Roberto Perez R 34 C 265 230 23 48 6 0 8 24 30 83 0 1
Carlos Santana B 37 1B 516 431 60 100 18 0 16 50 80 83 1 1
Andres Alvarez R 26 3B 389 343 39 75 15 2 10 39 39 123 9 1
Travis Swaggerty L 25 CF 455 408 53 99 14 4 8 39 43 121 11 4
Ji Hwan Bae L 23 2B 473 426 72 107 19 5 7 47 39 95 18 6
Ben Gamel L 31 LF 413 358 48 88 21 2 9 35 48 101 4 3
Josh VanMeter L 28 2B 362 316 41 72 18 2 9 35 42 86 6 2
Greg Allen B 30 LF 329 286 46 69 13 3 4 39 24 77 16 3
Jared Triolo R 25 3B 477 432 51 104 24 3 6 43 40 102 10 3
Jack Suwinski L 24 LF 549 490 68 119 22 1 22 57 53 169 4 2
Tyler Heineman B 32 C 208 186 20 48 10 1 2 16 13 32 1 1
Ji-Man Choi L 32 1B 396 331 40 79 20 0 11 45 58 103 0 1
Lewin Díaz L 26 1B 502 460 60 106 25 1 21 60 33 116 1 1
Diego Castillo R 25 SS 454 416 55 99 21 1 12 47 31 90 4 2
Nick Gonzales R 24 2B 338 300 36 68 19 2 6 39 30 98 3 2
Rodolfo Castro B 24 3B 530 483 57 109 22 3 17 56 39 145 6 4
Ali Sánchez R 26 C 320 293 30 68 13 0 4 28 24 78 1 1
Michael Chavis R 27 1B 417 386 47 93 15 2 16 50 23 122 2 1
Hunter Owen R 29 3B 341 307 40 64 12 1 11 47 21 121 1 1
Cal Mitchell L 24 RF 497 456 47 117 23 2 13 55 30 107 5 3
Matt Gorski R 25 CF 356 327 44 69 14 2 10 38 23 120 9 2
Jake Marisnick R 32 CF 235 216 26 48 11 2 5 22 12 70 6 2
Henry Davis R 23 C 247 215 31 51 12 2 7 42 16 61 4 1
Ryan Vilade R 24 RF 507 456 60 109 19 4 5 42 41 97 8 5
Liover Peguero R 22 SS 526 491 56 116 22 4 8 45 26 118 16 5
Abrahan Gutierrez R 23 C 397 354 35 77 17 1 5 40 35 104 1 1
Drew Maggi R 34 2B 362 314 42 66 13 2 4 39 35 102 10 3
Jared Oliva R 27 CF 409 377 50 89 20 4 5 43 25 101 15 4
Malcom Nunez R 22 1B 483 432 51 101 16 1 12 51 46 114 3 2
Canaan Smith-Njigba L 24 LF 249 217 28 49 11 1 3 20 31 66 6 2
José Godoy L 28 C 292 268 30 62 12 0 5 29 19 68 0 1
Francisco Acuna R 23 SS 246 219 26 46 16 0 2 29 17 63 3 2
Yoshi Tsutsugo L 31 1B 357 309 36 68 13 1 11 38 42 98 0 1
Eli Wilson R 24 C 224 200 25 41 8 1 3 23 17 65 0 1
Blake Sabol L 25 C 437 393 48 92 18 4 11 46 38 132 4 2
Carter Bins R 24 C 320 279 39 52 11 1 7 37 31 117 2 1
Miguel Andújar R 28 LF 379 356 44 94 17 1 11 40 18 55 5 1
Jason Delay R 28 C 255 236 21 48 12 1 3 19 13 73 0 1
Mason Martin L 24 1B 508 459 53 95 27 3 18 60 39 194 4 2
Matt Fraizer L 25 CF 473 437 50 98 19 5 6 41 31 125 9 3
Rodolfo Nolasco R 21 RF 306 278 30 55 12 2 7 29 25 117 3 2
Tucupita Marcano L 23 LF 463 414 56 98 15 3 6 37 42 87 6 6
Aaron Shackelford L 26 1B 433 399 42 81 20 2 14 48 27 147 4 1
Connor Scott L 23 RF 461 429 53 100 24 4 6 42 27 114 7 5
Brendt Citta R 26 1B 351 320 33 70 15 2 6 37 24 103 1 1
Zack Collins L 28 1B 335 283 35 59 16 1 9 33 47 102 1 1
Mike Jarvis R 25 2B 327 300 38 65 13 4 5 33 17 84 12 3
Fabricio Macias R 25 LF 277 263 27 61 12 1 5 28 10 75 4 4
Jackson Glenn R 25 2B 289 265 25 51 14 1 1 24 20 86 4 1
Maikol Escotto R 21 SS 325 299 32 58 11 2 4 29 20 115 7 6
Yoyner Fajardo L 24 RF 304 279 26 63 8 2 2 25 20 65 9 8
Grant Koch R 26 C 193 177 18 32 7 0 2 14 13 58 0 1
Jack Herman R 23 LF 236 221 24 44 9 0 5 20 13 82 1 1
Dariel Lopez R 21 3B 437 409 42 89 15 1 9 45 19 127 3 3
Lolo Sanchez R 24 LF 350 308 39 68 11 1 4 34 30 67 8 4
Sammy Siani L 22 LF 329 294 34 52 9 1 4 24 32 128 10 3
Hudson Head L 22 CF 441 394 46 72 15 1 7 47 35 168 5 4
Josh Bissonette R 26 3B 234 212 23 45 10 0 0 15 19 50 1 1
Jacob Gonzalez R 25 1B 426 388 38 93 19 2 7 48 22 76 1 1
Will Matthiessen R 25 1B 298 277 30 53 11 1 6 25 19 116 1 1
Ernny Ordonez R 24 1B 290 275 26 53 12 1 5 25 12 105 2 1

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Bryan Reynolds 625 .272 .354 .466 124 .194 .322 -5 3.5 .351
Oneil Cruz 536 .245 .313 .449 107 .204 .318 -1 2.7 .327
Ke’Bryan Hayes 514 .246 .315 .373 89 .127 .303 12 2.7 .303
Endy Rodriguez 520 .254 .321 .429 105 .175 .308 -1 2.6 .324
Kevin Padlo 414 .230 .307 .404 94 .173 .299 4 1.7 .308
Roberto Perez 265 .209 .303 .339 77 .130 .288 9 1.4 .287
Carlos Santana 516 .232 .353 .385 104 .153 .253 1 1.4 .327
Andres Alvarez 389 .219 .304 .362 83 .143 .310 5 1.3 .294
Travis Swaggerty 455 .243 .317 .355 86 .113 .326 3 1.3 .298
Ji Hwan Bae 473 .251 .318 .369 89 .117 .309 0 1.2 .301
Ben Gamel 413 .246 .340 .391 101 .145 .319 3 1.2 .321
Josh VanMeter 362 .228 .320 .383 93 .155 .285 -1 1.1 .310
Greg Allen 329 .241 .331 .350 89 .108 .317 5 1.0 .304
Jared Triolo 477 .241 .306 .352 81 .111 .302 3 1.0 .289
Jack Suwinski 549 .243 .321 .427 104 .184 .324 -5 1.0 .324
Tyler Heineman 208 .258 .319 .355 86 .097 .303 3 0.9 .298
Ji-Man Choi 396 .239 .354 .399 108 .160 .313 -2 0.9 .331
Lewin Díaz 502 .230 .287 .426 93 .196 .263 6 0.9 .304
Diego Castillo 454 .238 .297 .380 85 .142 .277 -4 0.8 .295
Nick Gonzales 338 .227 .308 .363 85 .137 .316 1 0.8 .296
Rodolfo Castro 530 .226 .289 .389 85 .164 .287 -1 0.8 .294
Ali Sánchez 320 .232 .294 .317 69 .085 .303 4 0.7 .271
Michael Chavis 417 .241 .290 .415 92 .174 .310 5 0.7 .302
Hunter Owen 341 .208 .282 .362 76 .153 .303 3 0.5 .282
Cal Mitchell 497 .257 .308 .401 94 .145 .310 -1 0.5 .307
Matt Gorski 356 .211 .267 .358 70 .147 .299 3 0.4 .272
Jake Marisnick 235 .222 .278 .361 75 .139 .305 2 0.4 .279
Henry Davis 247 .237 .328 .409 102 .172 .299 -10 0.3 .323
Ryan Vilade 507 .239 .303 .331 75 .092 .294 9 0.3 .281
Liover Peguero 526 .236 .278 .346 71 .110 .296 -1 0.3 .272
Abrahan Gutierrez 397 .218 .297 .314 69 .096 .294 -2 0.2 .274
Drew Maggi 362 .210 .308 .303 70 .092 .298 -1 0.2 .278
Jared Oliva 409 .236 .293 .350 77 .114 .310 -3 0.2 .282
Malcom Nunez 483 .234 .311 .359 84 .125 .291 3 0.2 .295
Canaan Smith-Njigba 249 .226 .325 .327 81 .101 .311 1 0.1 .295
José Godoy 292 .231 .288 .332 71 .101 .292 -1 0.1 .272
Francisco Acuna 246 .210 .290 .311 66 .100 .286 0 0.1 .270
Yoshi Tsutsugo 357 .220 .311 .375 89 .155 .285 0 0.1 .301
Eli Wilson 224 .205 .286 .300 62 .095 .288 0 0.1 .264
Blake Sabol 437 .234 .304 .384 89 .150 .324 -14 0.0 .300
Carter Bins 320 .186 .288 .308 65 .122 .290 -3 -0.1 .270
Miguel Andújar 379 .264 .298 .410 93 .146 .286 -5 -0.1 .303
Jason Delay 255 .203 .253 .301 52 .097 .281 1 -0.2 .245
Mason Martin 508 .207 .276 .397 83 .190 .312 1 -0.3 .289
Matt Fraizer 473 .224 .280 .332 68 .108 .301 -2 -0.3 .268
Rodolfo Nolasco 306 .198 .268 .331 64 .133 .312 4 -0.4 .264
Tucupita Marcano 463 .237 .307 .331 76 .094 .287 0 -0.5 .284
Aaron Shackelford 433 .203 .259 .368 71 .165 .282 3 -0.6 .271
Connor Scott 461 .233 .280 .350 73 .117 .304 1 -0.7 .275
Brendt Citta 351 .219 .285 .334 70 .116 .303 0 -0.7 .273
Zack Collins 335 .208 .322 .367 90 .159 .291 -9 -0.7 .305
Mike Jarvis 327 .217 .278 .337 69 .120 .284 -8 -0.7 .271
Fabricio Macias 277 .232 .267 .342 67 .110 .306 -1 -0.8 .266
Jackson Glenn 289 .192 .256 .264 44 .072 .281 1 -0.8 .235
Maikol Escotto 325 .194 .255 .284 49 .090 .300 -1 -0.8 .241
Yoyner Fajardo 304 .226 .286 .290 60 .065 .288 1 -0.9 .259
Grant Koch 193 .181 .244 .254 38 .073 .256 -3 -0.9 .225
Jack Herman 236 .199 .246 .308 52 .109 .291 1 -0.9 .241
Dariel Lopez 437 .218 .259 .325 60 .108 .293 -3 -1.0 .256
Lolo Sanchez 350 .221 .303 .302 68 .081 .270 -5 -1.0 .274
Sammy Siani 329 .177 .261 .255 44 .078 .296 3 -1.1 .237
Hudson Head 441 .183 .268 .279 52 .096 .297 -2 -1.2 .249
Josh Bissonette 234 .212 .279 .259 50 .047 .278 -7 -1.3 .245
Jacob Gonzalez 426 .240 .296 .353 78 .113 .282 -8 -1.4 .284
Will Matthiessen 298 .191 .245 .303 50 .112 .303 0 -1.4 .242
Ernny Ordonez 290 .193 .231 .298 45 .105 .291 -3 -1.9 .230

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Bryan Reynolds Earl Averill Mitch Haniger Bernie Williams
Oneil Cruz Jazz Chisholm Jr. Danny Tartabull Adalberto Mondesi
Ke’Bryan Hayes Andy Burns 번즈 Freddy Sandoval Marty Marion
Endy Rodriguez Bob Watson William Hamilton Dave Sax
Kevin Padlo Ed Moxey Jim Pankovits Jim Riggleman
Roberto Perez Chris Snyder Andy Seminick Bill Salkeld
Carlos Santana Kevin Millar Joey Votto Earl Sheely
Andres Alvarez Brian Dayett Dan Cholowsky Larry Neal
Travis Swaggerty Herm Winningham Mike Basse Chris Jones
Ji Hwan Bae Jermaine Clark Micah Johnson Don Blasingame
Ben Gamel Gus Felix Larry Harlow Cal Abrams
Josh VanMeter Nate Spears Tug Hulett Heinie Mueller
Greg Allen Steve Bieser Vince Coleman Ezequiel Carrera
Jared Triolo Steven Green Joe Xavier Lorenzo Gray
Jack Suwinski Danny Tartabull Colby Rasmus Phil Plantier
Tyler Heineman Lavern Grace Johnny Peacock Johnny Oates
Ji-Man Choi Pete Ward Les Fleming Brian Myrow 마이로우
Lewin Díaz Brian Hunter Andy Wilkins Scott Thorman
Diego Castillo Aledmys Diaz Chris Sabo Bobby Bragan
Nick Gonzales Stan Pawloski Gary Barakat Odie Davis
Rodolfo Castro Jim Morrison Jim Riggleman Gene Freese
Ali Sánchez Josh Ford Keith McDonald Luis Martinez
Michael Chavis Don Gile Andres Galarraga Arturo DeFreites
Hunter Owen Dave Cochrane Tod Davis Brandon Larson
Cal Mitchell J.P. Roberge Jim Traber Bob Molinaro
Matt Gorski John Ramistella Reggie Abercrombie Wayne Redmond
Jake Marisnick Peter Bourjos Alexis Gomez Cecil Espy
Henry Davis Brian Silvia J.R. Towles Bob Allietta
Ryan Vilade Jake Cronenworth Dana Brown Renard Brown
Liover Peguero Manny Alexander Willi Castro Aaron Holbert
Abrahan Gutierrez Eddie Tucker Jakson Reetz Geovany Soto
Drew Maggi Chase d’Arnaud Andy Fox Snuffy Stirnweiss
Jared Oliva Cory Sullivan Jason Repko McKay Christensen
Malcom Nunez Chevas Numata Mark Canha Steve Cox
Canaan Smith-Njigba LeVon Washington Carmen Benedetti Rashad Eldridge
José Godoy Bryan Holaday Bryan Kennedy Francisco Arcia
Francisco Acuna Vinny Capra Dan Lauterhahn Ryan Stegall
Yoshi Tsutsugo Joe Lutz Pat Dodson Matt Skole
Eli Wilson Alberto Concepcion Christopher Hudson Nephtale Mora
Blake Sabol Lee Robinson Angel Pena Duane Josephson
Carter Bins Mike Daniel Tom Cook Don Werner
Miguel Andújar Garry Hancock Willie Cabrera Bry Nelson
Jason Delay Ali Solis Lance Nichols Orlando Gomez
Mason Martin Jayson Drobiak Ralph Bryant Gabe Gabler
Matt Fraizer Joe Mathis Jacob Hannemann Aron Weston
Rodolfo Nolasco Chris Hart George Kazmarek Kale Gilmore
Tucupita Marcano Pin-Chieh Chen Chris Prieto McKay Christensen
Aaron Shackelford Gio Brusa Kit Pellow 펠로우 Chris Maples
Connor Scott Daniel Johnson Eddie Rosario Julio Becquer
Brendt Citta Rafael Batista Julio Vinas Craig Cooper
Zack Collins Ray Crowley Matt Winters Pat Magness
Mike Jarvis Inocencio Acevedo Ron Dillard Russ Schueler
Fabricio Macias Aaron Garza Perry Dunn Drew Mount
Jackson Glenn Dick Scott Ryan Pineda Jason Brissey
Maikol Escotto Ivan Ochoa Freddie Bynum Marten Gasparini
Yoyner Fajardo Shane Britt Ender Chavez Mike Reese
Grant Koch Travis Chapman Graig Merritt Mike Morland
Jack Herman Armando Ortiz Ozzie Lewis Mauricio Nunez
Dariel Lopez Brian Lane Charlie Hayes Kip Coughlan
Lolo Sanchez Sergio Garcia Gary Hill Gralyn Engram
Sammy Siani Omar Rosario Otis Bradley Alton Pinkney
Hudson Head Bill Dixon Fred Grooms Charles McGehee
Josh Bissonette Ryan Wehrle Jorge Aranzamendi Craig Daedelow
Jacob Gonzalez Ron Henika Daniel Batz Gary Sanserino
Will Matthiessen William Matthiessen Scott Sheldon Wil Sowers
Ernny Ordonez Manny Olloque Zach Kometani Charlie Oakes

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Bryan Reynolds .299 .378 .525 145 5.2 .248 .327 .421 106 2.1
Oneil Cruz .277 .342 .511 129 4.3 .219 .285 .392 84 1.3
Ke’Bryan Hayes .267 .338 .415 104 3.7 .222 .291 .332 71 1.6
Endy Rodriguez .282 .347 .482 126 4.0 .226 .295 .378 86 1.3
Kevin Padlo .258 .330 .458 114 2.7 .203 .275 .351 73 0.5
Roberto Perez .240 .335 .396 98 2.1 .178 .270 .287 58 0.8
Carlos Santana .257 .385 .430 123 2.6 .210 .327 .333 86 0.3
Andres Alvarez .243 .330 .409 101 2.2 .189 .278 .307 63 0.4
Travis Swaggerty .271 .344 .400 103 2.2 .215 .288 .308 67 0.1
Ji Hwan Bae .277 .345 .415 107 2.3 .226 .291 .329 71 0.2
Ben Gamel .274 .367 .436 121 2.2 .220 .310 .339 81 0.2
Josh VanMeter .257 .349 .442 115 2.0 .201 .293 .340 74 0.2
Greg Allen .269 .353 .390 106 1.7 .216 .304 .302 70 0.2
Jared Triolo .264 .331 .397 96 1.8 .216 .280 .315 65 0.0
Jack Suwinski .272 .349 .486 126 2.5 .215 .293 .373 83 -0.4
Tyler Heineman .289 .349 .401 106 1.4 .228 .292 .310 67 0.4
Ji-Man Choi .264 .381 .450 125 1.8 .207 .324 .347 86 -0.2
Lewin Díaz .255 .312 .480 112 2.1 .205 .261 .380 74 -0.3
Diego Castillo .263 .328 .432 106 2.0 .212 .276 .343 70 -0.1
Nick Gonzales .254 .333 .415 104 1.6 .202 .281 .320 66 0.1
Rodolfo Castro .252 .315 .441 107 2.1 .200 .263 .341 66 -0.5
Ali Sánchez .266 .324 .355 88 1.5 .204 .266 .273 51 -0.1
Michael Chavis .270 .317 .464 112 1.8 .216 .263 .368 73 -0.3
Hunter Owen .235 .304 .418 94 1.3 .184 .256 .314 58 -0.2
Cal Mitchell .283 .331 .448 112 1.6 .230 .279 .359 75 -0.7
Matt Gorski .239 .297 .407 90 1.4 .181 .243 .312 53 -0.3
Jake Marisnick .254 .310 .420 99 1.1 .196 .249 .312 55 -0.2
Henry Davis .263 .355 .470 120 0.9 .209 .303 .365 83 -0.3
Ryan Vilade .267 .328 .374 95 1.5 .212 .278 .293 60 -0.7
Liover Peguero .262 .301 .388 89 1.5 .213 .255 .309 56 -0.8
Abrahan Gutierrez .251 .325 .362 90 1.3 .194 .268 .273 51 -0.7
Drew Maggi .238 .338 .349 88 1.0 .180 .281 .253 51 -0.6
Jared Oliva .262 .321 .395 93 1.1 .209 .264 .304 56 -0.9
Malcom Nunez .263 .342 .406 104 1.4 .207 .285 .314 66 -1.0
Canaan Smith-Njigba .255 .356 .377 101 0.8 .194 .294 .283 60 -0.5
José Godoy .265 .324 .379 93 0.9 .200 .261 .287 52 -0.6
Francisco Acuna .238 .318 .359 86 0.7 .183 .262 .268 46 -0.5
Yoshi Tsutsugo .243 .340 .424 107 1.0 .190 .280 .320 66 -0.9
Eli Wilson .237 .322 .358 84 0.7 .174 .259 .256 42 -0.5
Blake Sabol .263 .330 .440 110 1.2 .207 .275 .331 69 -1.1
Carter Bins .216 .319 .366 88 0.8 .156 .259 .260 44 -0.9
Miguel Andújar .293 .327 .461 114 0.9 .236 .272 .364 73 -1.0
Jason Delay .232 .284 .349 74 0.5 .171 .221 .255 33 -0.9
Mason Martin .238 .305 .459 106 1.2 .181 .247 .341 61 -1.6
Matt Fraizer .252 .309 .376 86 0.7 .199 .254 .294 52 -1.4
Rodolfo Nolasco .227 .298 .392 85 0.5 .171 .242 .283 44 -1.2
Tucupita Marcano .261 .335 .377 94 0.5 .208 .281 .293 59 -1.5
Aaron Shackelford .230 .283 .412 88 0.3 .178 .234 .318 51 -1.6
Connor Scott .258 .306 .390 89 0.3 .211 .260 .312 58 -1.6
Brendt Citta .244 .308 .376 86 0.0 .192 .257 .291 51 -1.6
Zack Collins .237 .348 .428 113 0.2 .182 .290 .318 70 -1.6
Mike Jarvis .245 .306 .397 90 0.2 .191 .254 .296 51 -1.5
Fabricio Macias .258 .293 .393 88 0.0 .208 .245 .304 51 -1.3
Jackson Glenn .218 .285 .305 64 -0.1 .168 .229 .226 28 -1.4
Maikol Escotto .219 .283 .325 65 -0.1 .163 .226 .235 28 -1.7
Yoyner Fajardo .252 .311 .325 75 -0.2 .199 .260 .253 44 -1.5
Grant Koch .211 .277 .296 57 -0.4 .150 .216 .213 19 -1.3
Jack Herman .225 .277 .363 74 -0.2 .174 .217 .263 34 -1.4
Dariel Lopez .242 .283 .370 79 0.0 .191 .234 .285 44 -1.9
Lolo Sanchez .246 .329 .343 85 -0.3 .194 .277 .265 51 -1.7
Sammy Siani .209 .292 .301 63 -0.3 .150 .235 .216 27 -1.8
Hudson Head .209 .294 .322 68 -0.3 .158 .243 .244 36 -2.1
Josh Bissonette .238 .311 .300 69 -0.7 .185 .250 .227 33 -1.8
Jacob Gonzalez .268 .325 .404 99 -0.3 .215 .272 .311 62 -2.2
Will Matthiessen .217 .270 .343 67 -0.8 .165 .215 .257 31 -2.1
Ernny Ordonez .222 .261 .347 65 -1.2 .168 .204 .254 26 -2.7

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
David Bednar R 28 4 3 3.24 53 1 58.3 46 21 6 18 74
Robert Stephenson R 30 2 2 3.67 54 0 56.3 48 23 6 18 59
Roansy Contreras R 23 5 6 4.05 28 25 122.3 109 55 17 42 125
Yerry De Los Santos R 25 3 3 4.12 40 0 43.7 39 20 5 14 43
Nick Dombkowski L 24 2 3 4.15 34 2 60.7 57 28 7 20 56
Michael Burrows R 23 5 7 4.30 28 26 102.7 95 49 13 41 100
Trey McGough L 25 3 5 4.35 21 14 78.7 85 38 9 21 51
Mitch Keller R 27 6 9 4.37 28 26 140.0 144 68 15 52 127
Duane Underwood Jr. R 28 3 4 4.39 47 3 65.7 64 32 7 28 63
Quinn Priester R 22 5 7 4.44 22 22 103.3 103 51 11 42 82
Johan Oviedo R 25 5 8 4.46 36 22 113.0 106 56 15 47 106
Dauri Moreta R 27 3 4 4.50 54 1 60.0 57 30 9 19 54
JT Brubaker R 29 5 8 4.52 23 23 121.3 118 61 18 42 122
Tyler Samaniego L 24 4 5 4.53 43 0 47.7 44 24 5 24 42
Bryse Wilson R 25 6 10 4.56 27 23 136.3 144 69 19 36 99
Austin Brice R 31 2 3 4.57 37 2 45.3 41 23 5 20 42
Colin Holderman R 27 2 3 4.58 33 0 39.3 36 20 4 17 35
Carmen Mlodzinski R 24 5 7 4.61 25 20 93.7 95 48 12 40 79
Dillon Peters L 30 3 6 4.64 25 12 75.7 78 39 11 28 63
Peter Solomon R 26 5 7 4.65 25 19 100.7 101 52 12 45 83
Zach Thompson R 29 4 7 4.65 29 16 100.7 105 52 14 36 81
Luis Ortiz R 24 5 8 4.69 26 25 111.3 110 58 15 43 100
Cam Alldred L 26 2 3 4.70 39 1 61.3 61 32 7 28 48
J.C. Flowers R 25 4 6 4.76 27 6 62.3 66 33 8 24 48
Beau Sulser R 29 4 6 4.77 27 11 88.7 97 47 11 34 65
Cody Bolton R 25 3 5 4.80 26 15 75.0 75 40 10 36 67
Austin Roberts R 24 2 3 4.82 35 2 52.3 53 28 8 21 49
Jeffrey Passantino R 27 2 5 4.84 21 8 61.3 68 33 10 16 45
Omar Cruz L 24 3 5 4.85 21 11 72.3 72 39 10 32 61
Noe Toribio R 23 4 6 4.89 32 4 73.7 72 40 7 36 56
Cameron Junker R 25 3 4 4.89 38 1 42.3 40 23 6 26 45
Colin Selby R 25 2 3 4.91 30 1 44.0 42 24 5 25 39
John O’Reilly R 27 3 4 4.91 37 1 58.7 69 32 6 19 23
Manny Bañuelos L 32 2 3 4.91 32 6 58.7 58 32 8 30 55
Max Kranick R 25 4 7 4.92 19 18 86.0 94 47 12 30 61
Nick Mears R 26 1 3 4.93 36 1 34.7 33 19 5 19 35
Wil Crowe R 28 5 8 4.96 39 12 90.7 92 50 14 40 80
Jeremy Beasley R 27 2 5 4.97 26 10 67.0 63 37 11 34 70
Kyle Nicolas R 24 3 4 5.01 23 21 88.0 86 49 12 50 84
Tahnaj Thomas R 24 3 5 5.02 28 7 52.0 54 29 7 25 41
Yohan Ramirez R 28 2 5 5.02 39 3 57.3 50 32 8 33 61
Joe Jacques L 28 2 3 5.03 31 1 39.3 40 22 5 17 30
Miguel Yajure R 25 3 7 5.04 23 15 80.3 85 45 12 31 62
Hunter Stratton R 26 2 5 5.04 40 1 55.3 51 31 7 33 58
Osvaldo Bido R 27 3 7 5.04 27 21 96.3 97 54 13 49 81
Eric Hanhold R 29 2 5 5.05 40 0 46.3 49 26 6 23 36
Enmanuel Mejia R 24 2 5 5.09 38 1 46.0 45 26 5 29 39
Cristofer Melendez R 25 2 5 5.09 34 1 40.7 35 23 5 31 44
Cam Vieaux L 29 3 5 5.18 32 10 73.0 76 42 11 35 61
Travis MacGregor R 25 3 7 5.21 31 8 77.7 75 45 10 44 71
Chase De Jong R 29 3 6 5.23 32 7 75.7 78 44 14 32 66
Domingo Gonzalez R 23 3 8 5.28 25 11 92.0 96 54 13 43 69
Brad Case R 26 2 4 5.29 29 2 64.7 71 38 10 24 44
Jerad Eickhoff R 32 4 8 5.32 22 17 91.3 98 54 16 30 72
Matt Eckelman R 29 2 3 5.34 34 4 55.7 63 33 8 27 33
Tyler Beede R 30 3 6 5.35 25 13 74.0 78 44 10 38 59
Eric Stout L 30 1 3 5.37 35 3 52.0 50 31 8 34 56
Will Kobos R 25 2 4 5.46 20 2 28.0 27 17 4 20 28
Nathan Webb R 25 2 4 5.52 25 3 44.0 46 27 7 26 40
Zach Matson L 27 1 3 5.56 36 8 43.7 46 27 7 24 36
Nathan Kirby L 29 0 1 5.60 23 2 27.3 26 17 3 21 25
Aaron Shortridge R 26 3 6 5.68 19 19 77.7 92 49 14 31 46
Shea Murray R 29 1 2 7.18 23 0 26.3 27 21 4 27 23

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
David Bednar 58.3 11.4 2.8 0.9 7.6% 31.1% .290 128 2.98 78 1.3
Robert Stephenson 56.3 9.4 2.9 1.0 7.7% 25.2% .284 113 3.46 88 0.5
Roansy Contreras 122.3 9.2 3.1 1.3 8.1% 24.0% .282 103 4.02 97 1.7
Yerry De Los Santos 43.7 8.9 2.9 1.0 7.7% 23.6% .286 101 3.91 99 0.3
Nick Dombkowski 60.7 8.3 3.0 1.0 7.8% 21.7% .291 100 3.94 100 0.5
Michael Burrows 102.7 8.8 3.6 1.1 9.3% 22.7% .290 97 4.17 103 1.3
Trey McGough 78.7 5.8 2.4 1.0 6.2% 15.0% .298 96 4.18 105 1.0
Mitch Keller 140.0 8.2 3.3 1.0 8.5% 20.9% .313 95 4.06 105 1.5
Duane Underwood Jr. 65.7 8.6 3.8 1.0 9.7% 21.9% .306 95 4.08 106 0.3
Quinn Priester 103.3 7.1 3.7 1.0 9.2% 18.0% .295 94 4.34 107 1.1
Johan Oviedo 113.0 8.4 3.7 1.2 9.6% 21.5% .288 93 4.46 107 1.1
Dauri Moreta 60.0 8.1 2.9 1.4 7.5% 21.3% .282 92 4.40 108 0.1
JT Brubaker 121.3 9.0 3.1 1.3 8.1% 23.5% .299 92 4.31 109 1.2
Tyler Samaniego 47.7 7.9 4.5 0.9 11.3% 19.8% .285 92 4.39 109 0.1
Bryse Wilson 136.3 6.5 2.4 1.3 6.2% 17.0% .295 91 4.41 110 1.3
Austin Brice 45.3 8.3 4.0 1.0 10.2% 21.4% .283 91 4.59 110 0.1
Colin Holderman 39.3 8.0 3.9 0.9 10.0% 20.6% .286 91 4.14 110 0.1
Carmen Mlodzinski 93.7 7.6 3.8 1.2 9.7% 19.1% .299 90 4.51 111 0.9
Dillon Peters 75.7 7.5 3.3 1.3 8.5% 19.1% .298 90 4.61 112 0.6
Peter Solomon 100.7 7.4 4.0 1.1 10.0% 18.5% .296 89 4.48 112 0.9
Zach Thompson 100.7 7.2 3.2 1.3 8.1% 18.3% .299 89 4.51 112 0.7
Luis Ortiz 111.3 8.1 3.5 1.2 8.8% 20.5% .296 89 4.43 113 1.0
Cam Alldred 61.3 7.0 4.1 1.0 10.3% 17.6% .292 88 4.69 113 0.0
J.C. Flowers 62.3 6.9 3.5 1.2 8.7% 17.4% .302 87 4.58 115 0.3
Beau Sulser 88.7 6.6 3.5 1.1 8.6% 16.5% .307 87 4.55 115 0.5
Cody Bolton 75.0 8.0 4.3 1.2 10.7% 20.0% .298 87 4.62 116 0.6
Austin Roberts 52.3 8.4 3.6 1.4 9.1% 21.3% .302 86 4.64 116 0.0
Jeffrey Passantino 61.3 6.6 2.3 1.5 6.1% 17.0% .302 86 4.64 117 0.4
Omar Cruz 72.3 7.6 4.0 1.2 9.9% 18.9% .291 86 4.92 117 0.4
Noe Toribio 73.7 6.8 4.4 0.9 11.0% 17.1% .290 85 4.70 118 0.1
Cameron Junker 42.3 9.6 5.5 1.3 13.4% 23.2% .301 85 4.85 118 -0.1
Colin Selby 44.0 8.0 5.1 1.0 12.5% 19.5% .291 85 4.84 118 -0.1
John O’Reilly 58.7 3.5 2.9 0.9 7.2% 8.7% .299 85 4.77 118 -0.1
Manny Bañuelos 58.7 8.4 4.6 1.2 11.5% 21.0% .299 85 4.74 118 0.2
Max Kranick 86.0 6.4 3.1 1.3 8.0% 16.2% .301 84 4.77 118 0.5
Nick Mears 34.7 9.1 4.9 1.3 12.1% 22.3% .295 84 4.83 119 0.0
Wil Crowe 90.7 7.9 4.0 1.4 10.0% 20.0% .297 84 4.82 119 0.4
Jeremy Beasley 67.0 9.4 4.6 1.5 11.4% 23.5% .291 84 4.90 120 0.2
Kyle Nicolas 88.0 8.6 5.1 1.2 12.4% 20.9% .298 83 4.93 121 0.5
Tahnaj Thomas 52.0 7.1 4.3 1.2 10.6% 17.4% .297 83 4.94 121 0.1
Yohan Ramirez 57.3 9.6 5.2 1.3 12.8% 23.7% .282 83 5.04 121 -0.1
Joe Jacques 39.3 6.9 3.9 1.1 9.8% 17.2% .292 83 4.96 121 -0.1
Miguel Yajure 80.3 6.9 3.5 1.3 8.7% 17.4% .297 82 4.86 121 0.3
Hunter Stratton 55.3 9.4 5.4 1.1 13.1% 23.1% .297 82 4.71 121 -0.2
Osvaldo Bido 96.3 7.6 4.6 1.2 11.3% 18.7% .295 82 5.03 121 0.5
Eric Hanhold 46.3 7.0 4.5 1.2 10.7% 16.7% .303 82 4.97 122 -0.2
Enmanuel Mejia 46.0 7.6 5.7 1.0 13.4% 18.0% .294 82 4.89 122 -0.2
Cristofer Melendez 40.7 9.7 6.9 1.1 16.1% 22.8% .286 82 5.17 123 -0.2
Cam Vieaux 73.0 7.5 4.3 1.4 10.7% 18.6% .298 80 5.08 125 0.1
Travis MacGregor 77.7 8.2 5.1 1.2 12.5% 20.2% .294 80 5.12 126 0.1
Chase De Jong 75.7 7.9 3.8 1.7 9.6% 19.7% .291 79 5.24 126 -0.1
Domingo Gonzalez 92.0 6.8 4.2 1.3 10.4% 16.7% .293 79 5.19 127 0.1
Brad Case 64.7 6.1 3.3 1.4 8.3% 15.3% .296 79 5.15 127 -0.3
Jerad Eickhoff 91.3 7.1 3.0 1.6 7.6% 18.2% .296 78 5.07 128 0.2
Matt Eckelman 55.7 5.3 4.4 1.3 10.5% 12.8% .299 78 5.45 128 -0.2
Tyler Beede 74.0 7.2 4.6 1.2 11.2% 17.5% .302 78 5.10 129 0.1
Eric Stout 52.0 9.7 5.9 1.4 14.2% 23.4% .302 77 5.19 129 -0.3
Will Kobos 28.0 9.0 6.4 1.3 15.3% 21.4% .299 76 5.26 132 -0.2
Nathan Webb 44.0 8.2 5.3 1.4 12.5% 19.2% .305 75 5.38 133 -0.2
Zach Matson 43.7 7.4 4.9 1.4 11.8% 17.7% .298 75 5.58 134 -0.2
Nathan Kirby 27.3 8.2 6.9 1.0 16.0% 19.1% .295 74 5.38 135 -0.2
Aaron Shortridge 77.7 5.3 3.6 1.6 8.8% 13.0% .301 73 5.66 137 -0.1
Shea Murray 26.3 7.9 9.2 1.4 19.9% 16.9% .299 58 7.03 173 -0.8

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
David Bednar Robb Nen Lindy McDaniel Mariano Rivera 2.0 0.5 2.42 4.57
Robert Stephenson Shane Greene Juan Carlos Oviedo Chris Devenski 1.0 -0.1 3.01 4.59
Roansy Contreras Michael Wacha Jeff Russell Andy Benes 2.5 0.7 3.52 4.74
Yerry De Los Santos Milt Hill Bert Roberge Art Martinez 0.8 -0.2 3.27 5.20
Nick Dombkowski Jimmy Reyes Will McEnaney Chad Girodo 1.0 -0.2 3.38 5.12
Michael Burrows Austin Voth Chris Balcom-Miller Slick Castleman 2.1 0.5 3.69 4.96
Trey McGough Coley Smith Jim Magnuson J.D. Arteaga 1.4 0.5 3.87 4.87
Mitch Keller Mike Witt Edwin Jackson Nathan Eovaldi 2.5 0.6 3.79 5.00
Duane Underwood Jr. Mitchell Boggs Roy Lee Jackson Sam Dyson 0.8 -0.3 3.77 5.32
Quinn Priester Mike Allen Eric Raich Miguel Ruiz 1.8 0.5 3.93 5.01
Johan Oviedo Pat Zachry Dock Ellis Ray Culp 1.8 0.1 3.92 5.25
Dauri Moreta Austin Brice Dan Chergey Josh Perrault 0.5 -0.4 3.81 5.33
JT Brubaker Mark Portugal Dave Giusti Phil Hughes 2.0 0.3 3.99 5.13
Tyler Samaniego Pat Clements Royce Ring Timothy Graven 0.5 -0.4 3.87 5.43
Bryse Wilson Kendall Graveman Ariel Jurado Daniel Mengden 2.1 0.3 4.06 5.17
Austin Brice Vinnie Chulk Emil Kush Bob Bowman 0.5 -0.3 3.87 5.31
Colin Holderman Horacio Pina Mike Garman Ike Brookens 0.4 -0.3 3.78 5.79
Carmen Mlodzinski Tim Mauser Justin Wayne Willie Martinez 1.5 0.2 4.14 5.29
Dillon Peters Richard Salazar Fred Baczewski Travis Baptist 1.1 0.0 4.08 5.40
Peter Solomon Jerry Thomas Al Nipper Pete Smith 1.6 0.2 4.15 5.26
Zach Thompson Jose Almarante Jim Neidlinger Bryan Bullington 1.3 0.0 4.08 5.28
Luis Ortiz Howard Farmer Roy Smith Mitch Atkins 1.8 0.2 4.09 5.34
Cam Alldred Jim Weaver Bean Stringfellow Dale Polley 0.5 -0.5 4.06 5.40
J.C. Flowers Michael Cisco Jesus Sanchez산체스 Brad Guy 0.7 -0.2 4.13 5.36
Beau Sulser Scot Drucker Chuck McGrath Ty Marotz 1.0 -0.1 4.27 5.38
Cody Bolton Rodrigo Rosario Marcos Mateo Brock Huntzinger 1.1 0.0 4.26 5.42
Austin Roberts Alan DeRatt Lloyd Gladden Scott McKenzie 0.5 -0.4 4.10 5.58
Jeffrey Passantino Billy Muldowney Garry Clark Kyle Wright 0.9 0.0 4.20 5.54
Omar Cruz Clint Brannon Mike Curtis Dale Polley 0.9 -0.1 4.30 5.43
Noe Toribio Tommy Herrera Ed Farmer Ken Sanders 0.6 -0.4 4.38 5.56
Cameron Junker Rich Polak Keith Fleming David Wong 0.3 -0.5 4.10 5.79
Colin Selby Duane Theiss Terry Cornutt Tom Herrin 0.3 -0.4 4.26 5.68
John O’Reilly Wenty Ford Adolfo Garcia Mark Leonette 0.1 -0.5 4.49 5.44
Manny Bañuelos Percy Jones Harry Perkowski Tom Bolton 0.7 -0.5 4.21 5.95
Max Kranick Ivan Pineyro Brian Bass배스 Trevor Hutchinson 1.0 -0.1 4.43 5.55
Nick Mears Rick Raether Jake Viano Jarrod Kingrey 0.2 -0.4 4.29 5.78
Wil Crowe A.J. Cole Buck Farmer Gordon Rhodes 1.0 -0.4 4.40 5.70
Jeremy Beasley Ben Howard Paul Bush Taylor Grover 0.8 -0.4 4.24 5.87
Kyle Nicolas Randy Hammon Cliff Brantley Anthony Ranaudo 레나도 1.2 -0.1 4.42 5.64
Tahnaj Thomas Dana McManus Romulo Sanchez Jeff Hart 0.4 -0.3 4.48 5.60
Yohan Ramirez Not That Bob Gibson Dick Selma Joel Johnston 0.4 -0.6 4.34 5.93
Joe Jacques Mike Beard Bob Buchanan Ken Grundt 0.2 -0.4 4.42 5.84
Miguel Yajure Bryan Paukovits Joe Vitko Chih-Wei Hu 0.8 -0.3 4.52 5.81
Hunter Stratton Jesus Colome Andy Cavazos Romulo Sanchez 0.2 -0.8 4.32 5.98
Osvaldo Bido Tyler Green George Mecerod Pete Smith 1.1 -0.2 4.50 5.68
Eric Hanhold Steven Jackson Hector Navarro Steve Sharpe 0.1 -0.7 4.39 5.89
Enmanuel Mejia Fabio Castillo 카스티요 Johan Yan Michael McCammon 0.1 -0.6 4.52 5.75
Cristofer Melendez Eduardo Sanchez Ron Willis Gary Neibauer 0.2 -0.6 4.38 6.08
Cam Vieaux Colin Young Matt Whitehouse Pete Olsen 0.5 -0.5 4.65 6.08
Travis MacGregor Cliff Brantley Jim Rittwage Sam Hinds 0.6 -0.6 4.70 6.00
Chase De Jong Dusten Knight Jack Lutz Lil Stoner 0.5 -0.7 4.64 6.05
Domingo Gonzalez Marco Carrillo Randy Niles Chuck Ricci 0.7 -0.5 4.80 5.90
Brad Case Sam Bragg Cody Evans Jesse Estrada 0.1 -0.7 4.69 5.89
Jerad Eickhoff Pete Smith Shawn Boskie Jeff Weaver 0.9 -0.5 4.70 6.01
Matt Eckelman Ismael Castillo Drew Gay Peter Hoy 0.1 -0.7 4.84 6.07
Tyler Beede Shelby Miller Joe Coleman Jose Valdez 0.6 -0.5 4.73 6.10
Eric Stout Mark Bowden Matt Thornton Matt Williams 0.1 -1.0 4.65 6.82
Will Kobos Rick Raether Jeff Brueggemann Brett Wise 0.1 -0.5 4.69 6.43
Nathan Webb Gene Escat Greg Johnson David Carpenter 0.2 -0.6 4.79 6.22
Zach Matson Theodore Blair Len Whitehouse Ryne Slack 0.1 -0.7 4.89 6.47
Nathan Kirby Earl Stephenson Don Leshnock Bill Moloney 0.0 -0.6 4.87 7.03
Aaron Shortridge Brett Scarpetta Steve Soja Troy Giles 0.4 -0.6 5.15 6.24
Shea Murray Jerry Casale Karl Drews Tad Slowik -0.5 -1.1 6.10 8.67

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

48 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
downbaddav
2 months ago

yeah if cruz could manage even a 340 OBP, that would be scary. that dude is a freak

JohnThackermember
2 months ago
Reply to  downbaddav

The pro-Cruz case is you talk yourself into believing that his stats from mid August until the end of the season (.341 OBP starting August 15) are proof that he adjusted as a rookie and figured something out about plate discipline.

The anti-Cruz case is you take the whole season number.

ZiPS is somewhat in the middle, estimating an OBP improved from his full season mark but not as good as that.