2022 ZiPS Projections: Philadelphia Phillies

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Philadephia Phillies.

Batters

Perhaps there’s a bit of recency bias in play since I just wrote about them, but the Phillies as an organization feel a lot to me like the Angels do. Both have significant high points on their roster: the Angels with Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Anthony Rendon, the Phillies with Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Aaron Nola, and Zack Wheeler. But both teams share some less desirable qualities: ownership that seems to spend mostly in short bursts; major, obvious holes that go unanswered for years; and an unfortunate lack of reinforcements from the minors.

Entering the 2020 season, the Phillies ranked dead last in our positional rankings in center field. The projection was not far off, as they got a .637 OPS out of the position. They did little to address the problem after 2020, and though they did a better job thwarting the projections than the year before, I doubt anybody seriously thinks Travis Jankowski or Matt Vierling is going to be a great long-term option out there. Odúbel Herrera was already showing decline before his release, and the team has done just about nothing at the position since. In left, Andrew McCutchen was never better than simply a temporary stopgap; now that he’s gone, the Phillies don’t have a better idea. There’s still more of the offseason to come, but as of now, fans should be apprehensive about these two positions.

On the plus side, the offensive projections are solid elsewhere, to the degree that the Phillies could have a lineup in the top third of the league if the value of their stars isn’t eroded by having to haul around the two current positional millstones. Harper finally had the second fully healthy, superstar-level season of his career, and while the Harper-Trout battle has long been lost, he looks solidly back on a Hall of Fame trajectory, even if he doesn’t appear to be headed toward that inner circle pantheon. Realmuto is a good bet to be a top-five catcher, and Rhys Hoskins should be there at first, or at least close.

Depth is still a fairly serious issue. Outside of Bryson Stott in the infield, there are few places I’m thrilled with the Plan Bs.

Pitchers

While Nola and Wheeler are terrific, this is a rotation that’s absolutely crying for another solid innings-eater. Maybe that will be Zach Eflin at some point, but he’s recovering from major knee surgery and is likely to miss at least the start of the season. Right now, things look the same as last year — a reliance on the top two pitchers with a naïve hope that everything will just magically fall into place behind them. That’s how an alleged contender ended up opening a season with Matt Moore as its fourth starter.

I’m optimistic about Ranger Suárez, as is ZiPS, and the Phillies still could sign another starting pitcher. The major problem is that most of the desirable starters are already off the board. The lack of highly sought-after prospects also limits the ability of the team to make trades for others who could become available, such as one of the Reds’ starters, or John Means.

The bullpen is in better shape. Corey Knebel was one of the best relievers available, so bringing him into the fold represents a major upgrade. Ryan Sherriff is a great bounce-back candidate, basically acquired for free, and Bailey Falter projects as solidly above-average in the pen. Add in a healthy Seranthony Domínguez, and I think people will be surprised just how good this group is after a rather blecch 2021.

Add it all up and assume average health, and I think this is a team that’s roughly .500, perhaps a few wins better. It’s unfortunate, and despite the hopes during rebuilding, I don’t think we’re going to ever get a truly excellent Phillies team in this generation.

One of the fundamental problems is that the front office and ownership have responded to disappointments not by addressing the actual failings but what they want the failings to be. It’s easy to say that the problem is a manager who doesn’t know how to win and then sign a manager who allegedly does. It’s easy to say that it’s the hitting coach’s fault. It’s easy to blame the bullpen for your bad fortunes. It’s easy to say that it’s COVID’s fault because the team lost $700 quadrillion dollars.

By contrast, it’s harder to admit that a team reliant on just a few players is going to be wildly inconsistent. It’s harder to admit that you’ve been incredibly lax at finding talent at the weaker positions. It’s harder to admit that something is going wrong with your player development process when so few players are becoming real contributors in the majors. It’s harder to make the decision to go through the luxury tax threshold because you didn’t consider that the big, expensive superstars need a good foundation of secondary talent and role players to get you into the playoffs — players you have to pay for if you can’t develop them yourself.

It’s easy to build a .500 team when you’re spending $200 million. Unfortunately, the team is run on easy mode.

Now, perhaps the Phillies add Carlos Rodón, Kris Bryant, and Matthew Boyd after a new CBA is signed and somehow find enough talent to acquire Cedric Mullins or Bryan Reynolds. If that happens, my outlook will have to change; as of right now, let’s call this an 84-win team.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Bryce Harper L 29 RF 603 489 94 133 32 1 33 96 103 142 13 3
J.T. Realmuto R 31 C 542 486 73 128 26 3 20 79 43 126 10 2
Rhys Hoskins R 29 1B 538 455 73 109 29 2 28 84 72 132 3 2
Jean Segura R 32 2B 578 532 74 150 27 3 12 57 34 78 10 4
Bryson Stott L 24 SS 457 409 50 100 17 2 12 42 43 115 7 5
Alec Bohm R 25 3B 528 477 60 125 21 2 15 61 42 123 6 2
Odúbel Herrera L 30 CF 470 432 53 112 23 2 13 53 28 78 6 1
Andrew McCutchen R 35 LF 470 401 62 93 19 1 19 63 61 108 6 2
Arquímedes Gamboa B 24 SS 415 367 44 74 12 3 8 32 44 121 10 3
Brad Miller L 32 1B 341 300 44 69 11 2 17 48 38 103 2 1
Didi Gregorius L 32 SS 416 379 49 93 17 3 15 62 26 64 3 2
Freddy Galvis B 32 SS 478 441 55 107 20 1 14 54 29 103 3 2
Johan Camargo B 28 1B 438 399 56 103 21 1 16 52 34 89 0 1
Tyler Heineman B 31 C 214 191 24 46 9 1 5 20 16 42 1 1
Garrett Stubbs L 29 C 229 202 28 45 9 1 4 19 20 45 5 1
Johan Rojas R 21 CF 455 426 54 97 15 3 11 45 22 101 17 6
Logan O’Hoppe R 22 C 437 402 53 96 16 1 14 48 25 90 4 2
Wendell Rijo R 26 2B 378 346 38 75 16 1 14 35 26 96 5 2
Vito Friscia R 25 C 287 255 37 55 10 1 6 26 24 85 2 0
Matt Vierling R 25 RF 445 403 48 94 17 2 10 40 28 107 10 3
Rafael Marchan B 23 C 350 320 43 71 12 2 5 26 24 65 1 1
Daniel Brito L 24 2B 365 337 33 79 13 2 7 25 22 80 4 7
Jake Elmore R 35 2B 360 325 38 83 17 0 3 27 28 59 3 6
Charles Tilson L 29 CF 323 297 34 71 11 1 3 26 19 68 9 2
T.J. Rivera R 33 2B 274 247 32 57 11 1 8 32 14 61 1 1
Jhailyn Ortiz R 23 CF 429 394 45 83 12 1 16 47 28 131 2 1
Ronald Torreyes R 29 3B 380 352 37 86 13 1 8 39 18 46 2 1
Adam Haseley L 26 CF 405 368 48 89 16 2 9 41 27 92 7 2
Austin Listi R 28 3B 394 351 45 75 14 1 10 39 33 98 0 1
Luke Williams R 25 2B 394 353 42 76 15 2 7 31 30 103 14 7
Travis Jankowski L 31 CF 252 221 32 53 7 1 2 14 27 50 9 4
Roman Quinn B 29 CF 145 129 17 28 4 2 2 10 11 42 10 3
Dalton Guthrie R 26 SS 343 320 33 70 13 2 6 26 17 81 4 3
Nick Maton L 25 SS 422 376 46 79 16 2 9 39 37 117 6 4
Darick Hall L 26 1B 490 433 59 90 23 1 16 57 41 137 1 1
Donny Sands R 26 C 348 321 38 74 14 1 11 37 21 71 1 1
Mickey Moniak L 24 CF 482 437 53 95 18 8 14 57 31 138 6 2
Símon Muzziotti L 23 CF 349 324 37 81 13 2 5 25 20 67 10 8
Scott Kingery R 28 2B 406 374 45 82 21 2 11 35 25 127 10 2
Edgar Cabral R 26 C 140 126 15 24 4 1 3 12 11 43 0 0
Ryan Cordell R 30 RF 250 225 23 45 8 0 9 28 17 84 6 1
Ali Castillo R 33 3B 364 336 39 82 13 3 5 31 19 60 4 4
Matt Joyce L 37 RF 134 113 14 23 3 0 3 14 17 34 0 0
Logan Moore L 31 C 114 100 12 17 2 0 2 8 11 33 0 0
Jorge Bonifacio R 29 RF 425 384 45 83 18 2 11 46 33 104 3 2
Luis García B 21 SS 503 464 52 95 14 2 16 47 33 138 8 4
Jack Conley R 25 C 171 154 15 27 5 0 4 11 14 51 1 0
Nate Fassnacht R 24 2B 287 258 33 46 8 2 6 24 27 108 5 2
D.J. Stewart R 23 LF 415 386 53 91 14 2 11 46 21 89 4 2
Casey Martin R 23 SS 455 425 53 82 15 1 10 41 24 123 10 3
Cornelius Randolph L 25 RF 318 289 33 60 10 1 8 29 26 103 6 2
Nicolas Torres R 22 3B 410 383 54 89 12 2 7 35 24 101 8 2
Madison Stokes R 26 1B 406 376 38 76 14 2 9 32 23 124 1 2
Josh Stephen L 24 LF 404 362 46 74 16 3 8 36 33 118 4 4

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Bryce Harper .272 .400 .544 149 .272 .318 8.2 -2 4.9 Lance Berkman
J.T. Realmuto .263 .332 .453 107 .189 .318 5.6 3 3.5 Hector Lopez
Rhys Hoskins .240 .351 .497 123 .257 .275 6.2 -2 2.6 Bob Hamelin
Jean Segura .282 .331 .412 97 .130 .312 5.2 1 2.3 Mark Grudzielanek
Bryson Stott .244 .317 .384 87 .139 .312 4.3 4 1.7 Ernest Riles
Alec Bohm .262 .323 .409 94 .147 .324 4.9 -1 1.6 Clete Boyer
Odúbel Herrera .259 .309 .412 91 .153 .290 4.7 0 1.3 Terrence Long
Andrew McCutchen .232 .336 .426 102 .195 .270 5.1 -3 1.2 Andy Tracy
Arquímedes Gamboa .202 .288 .316 62 .114 .277 3.2 10 1.1 Darrin Duffy
Brad Miller .230 .320 .450 103 .220 .289 5.0 2 1.0 Len Matuszek
Didi Gregorius .245 .300 .425 91 .179 .260 4.5 -4 0.9 Gene Alley
Freddy Galvis .243 .294 .388 80 .145 .287 4.0 -1 0.8 Bill Stein
Johan Camargo .258 .320 .436 100 .178 .296 5.0 -1 0.8 Jim Spencer
Tyler Heineman .241 .308 .377 82 .136 .285 4.1 2 0.7 Brad Gulden
Garrett Stubbs .223 .296 .337 69 .114 .268 3.6 4 0.7 Doug Newstrom
Johan Rojas .228 .269 .354 65 .127 .274 3.5 7 0.6 Damian Rolls
Logan O’Hoppe .239 .286 .388 78 .149 .275 3.9 -3 0.5 Izzy Molina
Wendell Rijo .217 .279 .390 76 .173 .258 3.8 0 0.4 Jim Anderson
Vito Friscia .216 .288 .333 66 .118 .299 3.4 1 0.3 Jeff Ransom
Matt Vierling .233 .290 .360 73 .127 .294 3.8 7 0.3 Pedro Swann
Rafael Marchan .222 .284 .319 61 .097 .264 3.1 3 0.3 Guillermo Garcia
Daniel Brito .234 .286 .347 68 .113 .288 3.2 6 0.3 Felix Molina
Jake Elmore .255 .320 .335 76 .080 .304 3.6 1 0.3 Manny Trillo
Charles Tilson .239 .293 .313 63 .074 .301 3.4 4 0.3 Joe Simpson
T.J. Rivera .231 .275 .381 73 .150 .275 3.6 2 0.3 Garth Iorg
Jhailyn Ortiz .211 .273 .368 69 .157 .271 3.4 2 0.2 Brian Pate
Ronald Torreyes .244 .285 .355 70 .111 .262 3.6 2 0.2 Danny Thompson
Adam Haseley .242 .301 .370 78 .128 .300 4.0 -4 0.2 Dan Peltier
Austin Listi .214 .290 .345 69 .131 .267 3.4 1 0.1 Jason Wood
Luke Williams .215 .281 .329 63 .113 .284 3.2 4 0.1 Andy Fox
Travis Jankowski .240 .328 .308 72 .068 .302 3.6 -1 0.1 Thurman Tucker
Roman Quinn .217 .294 .326 66 .109 .306 3.6 0 0.1 Herm Winningham
Dalton Guthrie .219 .266 .328 58 .109 .275 3.0 4 0.1 Ed Brinkman
Nick Maton .210 .286 .335 66 .125 .280 3.2 0 0.1 Brandon Cromer
Darick Hall .208 .291 .376 77 .169 .264 3.7 3 0.0 Les Wallin
Donny Sands .231 .280 .383 75 .153 .264 3.7 -6 -0.1 Dann Bilardello
Mickey Moniak .217 .271 .391 74 .174 .284 3.7 -3 -0.1 Roy Johnson
Símon Muzziotti .250 .297 .349 72 .099 .302 3.5 -1 -0.1 Leo Garcia
Scott Kingery .219 .272 .374 70 .155 .301 3.7 -3 -0.1 Gookie Dawkins
Edgar Cabral .190 .259 .310 51 .119 .263 2.7 -1 -0.3 Patrick Arlis
Ryan Cordell .200 .263 .356 64 .156 .273 3.3 1 -0.3 Nick Gorneault
Ali Castillo .244 .285 .345 68 .101 .284 3.4 -2 -0.4 Eddie Zosky
Matt Joyce .204 .308 .310 67 .106 .263 3.2 -2 -0.4 Brian Jordan
Logan Moore .170 .257 .250 37 .080 .231 2.1 -1 -0.4 Earl Grace
Jorge Bonifacio .216 .281 .359 70 .143 .268 3.4 1 -0.5 Caleb Stewart
Luis García .205 .259 .347 60 .142 .255 3.1 -5 -0.7 Juan Uribe
Jack Conley .175 .253 .286 44 .110 .232 2.4 -4 -0.7 Brad Erdman
Nate Fassnacht .178 .261 .295 49 .116 .278 2.6 -1 -0.8 Jamie Saylor
D.J. Stewart .236 .278 .368 71 .132 .280 3.6 -3 -0.8 Josh Carter
Casey Martin .193 .242 .304 45 .111 .247 2.6 0 -1.0 Neifi Perez
Cornelius Randolph .208 .277 .332 62 .125 .292 3.2 -5 -1.1 Jason Herrick
Nicolas Torres .232 .279 .329 62 .097 .298 3.3 -12 -1.5 Ruben Santana
Madison Stokes .202 .252 .322 52 .120 .276 2.7 1 -1.5 Eric Reece
Josh Stephen .204 .274 .331 61 .127 .280 3.0 -9 -1.9 Chad Alexander

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Zack Wheeler R 32 14 7 3.23 30 30 192.3 168 69 17 46 201 3.07
Aaron Nola R 29 12 7 3.46 32 32 184.7 154 71 24 51 217 3.48
Zach Eflin R 28 8 7 4.06 23 22 124.0 127 56 18 30 111 4.10
Ranger Suárez L 26 7 5 3.79 39 12 102.0 92 43 10 34 95 3.74
Kyle Gibson R 34 9 8 4.63 27 26 149.7 147 77 22 57 131 4.62
Cristopher Sánchez L 25 6 5 4.47 27 17 86.7 82 43 10 45 87 4.37
Bailey Falter L 25 3 3 4.27 26 9 65.3 64 31 11 16 64 4.28
Sam Coonrod R 29 3 2 3.81 52 1 49.7 44 21 5 21 53 3.86
José Alvarado L 27 4 3 3.98 63 1 54.3 42 24 5 40 72 4.16
Corey Knebel R 30 2 2 3.69 35 3 31.7 25 13 4 14 42 3.59
Seranthony Domínguez R 27 2 2 3.74 31 2 33.7 29 14 3 15 35 3.77
Connor Brogdon R 27 5 4 4.18 53 2 60.3 53 28 9 22 67 4.09
Scott Moss L 27 6 7 5.06 19 18 80.0 76 45 13 48 85 5.12
James McArthur R 25 4 5 5.08 22 15 78.0 80 44 10 42 65 4.99
Archie Bradley R 29 5 4 4.19 59 0 58.0 56 27 8 23 54 4.51
Damon Jones L 27 4 4 4.93 30 10 69.3 63 38 8 49 71 4.93
Nick Nelson R 26 5 5 4.97 34 11 76.0 72 42 11 48 81 5.02
Ryan Sherriff L 32 5 4 4.09 40 2 33.0 31 15 3 16 30 4.27
Ethan Evanko L 27 3 3 4.66 15 4 36.7 38 19 5 16 28 4.90
Jeffrey Singer L 28 4 3 4.23 43 0 55.3 49 26 6 29 61 4.12
Ethan Lindow L 23 5 6 5.24 19 15 80.7 90 47 15 26 58 5.28
Colton Eastman R 25 4 5 5.23 19 14 75.7 80 44 14 31 63 5.31
Adam Leverett R 23 4 5 5.26 21 16 75.3 81 44 12 34 57 5.25
Josh Hendrickson L 24 3 4 5.28 20 13 76.7 83 45 14 29 58 5.37
David Hale 헤일 R 34 2 2 4.83 18 4 41.0 44 22 6 14 31 4.74
Cam Bedrosian R 30 2 2 4.53 50 2 51.7 49 26 7 23 50 4.46
Ian Kennedy R 37 2 2 4.44 51 0 50.7 47 25 10 17 59 4.48
Hans Crouse R 23 5 6 5.46 23 23 85.7 90 52 16 39 71 5.46
Tyler Cyr R 29 1 1 4.58 33 1 37.3 36 19 5 20 38 4.65
Kent Emanuel L 30 3 3 5.13 21 5 59.7 65 34 12 17 44 5.33
Kyle Glogoski R 23 2 2 5.29 12 6 32.3 32 19 4 20 28 5.10
Joe Gatto R 27 4 5 4.98 33 4 65.0 64 36 9 32 59 4.83
Adonis Medina R 25 5 6 5.49 22 19 83.7 93 51 14 36 60 5.39
Yoan López R 29 3 3 4.56 53 0 51.3 50 26 8 20 49 4.52
Andrew Bellatti R 30 2 2 4.54 31 0 33.7 33 17 5 13 33 4.40
Carlo Reyes R 23 5 5 4.91 36 3 58.7 60 32 9 26 52 4.94
David Parkinson L 26 6 8 5.52 21 19 93.0 101 57 18 37 77 5.40
Jake Newberry R 27 4 4 4.62 50 0 64.3 62 33 11 28 66 4.80
Taylor Lehman L 26 1 1 5.47 9 5 24.7 25 15 3 17 20 5.45
Jakob Hernandez L 26 3 3 4.63 44 0 56.3 53 29 8 28 58 4.62
Matt Moore L 33 3 4 5.49 26 15 80.3 85 49 16 36 73 5.41
Noah Skirrow R 23 3 4 5.49 19 10 57.3 63 35 9 29 41 5.46
Brandon Kintzler R 37 2 2 4.86 38 1 37.0 41 20 6 12 26 5.02
Kyle Dohy L 25 3 3 4.70 38 0 51.7 44 27 6 37 61 4.59
Rob Kaminsky L 27 1 1 4.78 31 0 37.7 36 20 5 20 36 4.67
JoJo Romero L 25 4 5 5.56 22 14 69.7 75 43 13 31 58 5.49
Julian Garcia R 27 5 6 5.52 22 12 75.0 80 46 13 37 62 5.42
David Paulino R 28 3 4 5.37 28 8 72.0 76 43 14 29 64 5.26
Jack Perkins R 24 4 5 5.61 23 20 94.7 107 59 18 36 66 5.56
Ramón Rosso R 26 3 4 5.52 27 13 75.0 78 46 14 36 69 5.37
Tyler Phillips R 24 4 5 5.73 18 17 59.7 67 38 13 22 45 5.81
Billy Sullivan R 23 1 1 5.16 21 0 22.7 22 13 4 13 23 5.30
Austin Ross R 27 4 5 5.08 36 1 51.3 50 29 7 31 48 5.07
Francisco Morales R 22 8 10 5.74 26 22 95.7 96 61 15 69 93 5.63
Brian Marconi L 25 2 2 5.10 39 0 47.7 47 27 6 29 44 4.92
Michael Kelly R 29 4 5 5.26 39 1 49.7 47 29 8 30 51 5.21
Braeden Ogle L 24 4 4 5.13 44 0 52.7 53 30 9 28 51 5.23
Mike Adams R 27 2 2 5.21 45 0 48.3 51 28 6 25 36 5.04
Taylor Guerrieri R 29 2 2 5.48 33 1 46.0 48 28 8 22 41 5.29
Matt Seelinger R 27 2 3 5.40 35 0 41.7 38 25 8 30 51 5.60
Braden Zarbnisky R 25 4 5 5.32 31 0 47.3 51 28 10 17 39 5.48
Tyler Carr R 26 1 2 5.26 35 0 53.0 56 31 8 26 39 5.31
Brady Lail R 28 2 2 5.62 35 2 49.7 51 31 10 25 47 5.60
Zach Warren L 26 1 2 5.48 40 0 46.0 42 28 8 35 53 5.55
Blake Brown R 23 1 2 5.67 35 0 39.7 39 25 6 29 38 5.57
Mark Appel R 30 3 6 6.29 23 15 68.7 77 48 13 42 51 6.12
Nick Lackney L 25 2 3 6.15 31 0 45.3 49 31 6 34 31 5.98
Jhordany Mezquita L 24 4 7 6.51 22 16 74.7 83 54 13 53 55 6.26

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Zack Wheeler 9.4 2.2 0.8 5.9% 25.6% .294 135 74 4.7 Kevin Brown
Aaron Nola 10.6 2.5 1.2 6.7% 28.7% .285 126 80 4.1 Mike Mussina
Zach Eflin 8.1 2.2 1.3 5.7% 21.2% .302 107 94 1.9 Charles Nagy
Ranger Suárez 8.4 3.0 0.9 7.9% 22.1% .287 115 87 1.7 Billy O’Dell
Kyle Gibson 7.9 3.4 1.3 8.8% 20.2% .289 94 107 1.5 Mike Morgan
Cristopher Sánchez 9.0 4.7 1.0 11.7% 22.6% .301 97 103 0.9 Bill Everly
Bailey Falter 8.8 2.2 1.5 5.8% 23.3% .293 102 98 0.7 Tom Underwood
Sam Coonrod 9.6 3.8 0.9 9.8% 24.7% .295 114 88 0.5 Jay Powell
José Alvarado 11.9 6.6 0.8 16.3% 29.3% .296 109 92 0.5 Mitch Williams
Corey Knebel 11.9 4.0 1.1 10.5% 31.6% .292 118 85 0.5 Russ Springer
Seranthony Domínguez 9.4 4.0 0.8 10.3% 24.1% .289 116 86 0.5 Charlie Hough
Connor Brogdon 10.0 3.3 1.3 8.7% 26.4% .286 104 96 0.4 Stan Belinda
Scott Moss 9.6 5.4 1.5 13.2% 23.4% .296 86 117 0.4 Steve Searcy
James McArthur 7.5 4.8 1.2 11.8% 18.3% .300 86 117 0.3 Mike Lumley
Archie Bradley 8.4 3.6 1.2 9.1% 21.3% .293 104 96 0.3 Jerry Dipoto
Damon Jones 9.2 6.4 1.0 15.4% 22.3% .294 88 114 0.3 Bob Weiland
Nick Nelson 9.6 5.7 1.3 13.8% 23.3% .300 87 114 0.3 Steve Curry
Ryan Sherriff 8.2 4.4 0.8 10.9% 20.4% .295 106 94 0.3 Sean Fesh
Ethan Evanko 6.9 3.9 1.2 9.8% 17.2% .295 93 107 0.2 Danny Coombs
Jeffrey Singer 9.9 4.7 1.0 11.9% 25.1% .299 103 97 0.2 Ricardo Jordan
Ethan Lindow 6.5 2.9 1.7 7.3% 16.3% .296 83 121 0.2 Kevin Pickford
Colton Eastman 7.5 3.7 1.7 9.2% 18.8% .295 83 120 0.2 Antonio Alfonseca
Adam Leverett 6.8 4.1 1.4 10.0% 16.8% .297 83 121 0.2 Ronnie Ray
Josh Hendrickson 6.8 3.4 1.6 8.5% 17.0% .294 82 122 0.2 Matt Blank
David Hale 6.8 3.1 1.3 7.8% 17.2% .299 90 111 0.2 A.J. Sager
Cam Bedrosian 8.7 4.0 1.2 10.2% 22.2% .294 96 104 0.1 Kevin Gryboski
Ian Kennedy 10.5 3.0 1.8 7.9% 27.6% .291 98 102 0.1 Jeff Montgomery
Hans Crouse 7.5 4.1 1.7 10.2% 18.5% .291 80 126 0.1 Arnie Gooch
Tyler Cyr 9.2 4.8 1.2 12.0% 22.8% .304 95 105 0.1 Jason Bulger
Kent Emanuel 6.6 2.6 1.8 6.6% 17.0% .290 85 118 0.1 Stubby Overmire
Kyle Glogoski 7.8 5.6 1.1 13.4% 18.8% .295 82 122 0.0 Ricky Steik
Joe Gatto 8.2 4.4 1.2 11.0% 20.3% .296 87 115 0.0 Steve Hoeme
Adonis Medina 6.5 3.9 1.5 9.5% 15.8% .299 79 126 0.0 Ben Christensen
Yoan López 8.6 3.5 1.4 9.0% 22.2% .294 95 105 0.0 Tom Gorman
Andrew Bellatti 8.8 3.5 1.3 8.9% 22.6% .298 96 105 0.0 Turk Wendell
Carlo Reyes 8.0 4.0 1.4 9.9% 19.8% .298 89 113 0.0 Willie Collazo
David Parkinson 7.5 3.6 1.7 8.9% 18.6% .299 79 127 0.0 Brian Dubois
Jake Newberry 9.2 3.9 1.5 9.9% 23.4% .293 94 106 0.0 Curt Schmidt
Taylor Lehman 7.3 6.2 1.1 14.7% 17.2% .297 79 126 0.0 Doug Capilla
Jakob Hernandez 9.3 4.5 1.3 11.2% 23.3% .296 94 107 0.0 Rob Murphy
Matt Moore 8.2 4.0 1.8 10.0% 20.3% .299 79 126 0.0 Larry McWilliams
Noah Skirrow 6.4 4.6 1.4 11.0% 15.6% .298 79 126 0.0 Bob Baldrick
Brandon Kintzler 6.3 2.9 1.5 7.4% 16.0% .299 89 112 -0.1 Roy Face
Kyle Dohy 10.6 6.4 1.0 15.7% 26.0% .295 92 108 -0.1 Armando Almanza
Rob Kaminsky 8.6 4.8 1.2 12.0% 21.6% .295 91 110 -0.1 Dan Ricabal
JoJo Romero 7.5 4.0 1.7 9.8% 18.4% .298 78 128 -0.1 Steve Bechler
Julian Garcia 7.4 4.4 1.6 10.9% 18.2% .299 79 127 -0.1 Ben Ford
David Paulino 8.0 3.6 1.8 9.1% 20.1% .297 81 124 -0.1 Rick Heiserman
Jack Perkins 6.3 3.4 1.7 8.5% 15.5% .297 77 129 -0.1 Shawn Purdy
Ramón Rosso 8.3 4.3 1.7 10.7% 20.4% .298 79 127 -0.1 Steve Bourgeois
Tyler Phillips 6.8 3.3 2.0 8.2% 16.9% .295 76 132 -0.1 Shawn Purdy
Billy Sullivan 9.1 5.2 1.6 12.7% 22.5% .295 84 119 -0.1 Bob Welch
Austin Ross 8.4 5.4 1.2 13.2% 20.5% .297 85 117 -0.2 Pete Sikaras
Francisco Morales 8.7 6.5 1.4 15.3% 20.6% .302 76 132 -0.2 Ray Chadwick
Brian Marconi 8.3 5.5 1.1 13.3% 20.2% .299 85 117 -0.3 Gary Wayne
Michael Kelly 9.2 5.4 1.4 13.3% 22.6% .291 83 121 -0.3 Marc Deschenes
Braeden Ogle 8.7 4.8 1.5 11.8% 21.4% .299 85 118 -0.3 Josh Outman
Mike Adams 6.7 4.7 1.1 11.4% 16.4% .300 83 120 -0.3 Casey Daigle
Taylor Guerrieri 8.0 4.3 1.6 10.6% 19.7% .299 79 126 -0.4 Keith Shepherd
Matt Seelinger 11.0 6.5 1.7 15.5% 26.4% .297 80 124 -0.4 Brian Wood
Braden Zarbnisky 7.4 3.2 1.9 8.2% 18.8% .293 82 123 -0.4 Tim McClaskey
Tyler Carr 6.6 4.4 1.4 10.8% 16.3% .293 83 121 -0.4 Greg Bauer
Brady Lail 8.5 4.5 1.8 11.1% 20.9% .293 77 129 -0.4 Doug Gogolewski
Zach Warren 10.4 6.8 1.6 16.4% 24.8% .293 79 126 -0.5 Steve Colyer
Blake Brown 8.6 6.6 1.4 15.6% 20.4% .297 77 131 -0.5 Gene Altman
Mark Appel 6.7 5.5 1.7 13.0% 15.8% .299 69 145 -0.6 Jarod Juelsgaard
Nick Lackney 6.2 6.8 1.2 15.6% 14.2% .299 71 142 -0.8 Brian Adams
Jhordany Mezquita 6.6 6.4 1.6 14.8% 15.4% .300 67 150 -0.8 Mike Johnston

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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VinnieDaGooch
4 months ago

They have to be a contender for worst player dev and scouting in baseball.

sadtrombonemember
4 months ago
Reply to  VinnieDaGooch

Whenever someone posts something like this on any team’s ZiPs projection I have to remind them that the Rangers are in a class of their own. On depth charts, the Rangers are only projected to receive about 6 wins from players who were homegrown, and 2.4 wins are supposed to come from Josh Jung who hasn’t even debuted yet.

And unlike the Angels and Phillies, Jon Daniels still runs the show for the Rangers. Kind of hard to blame the current group for Matt Klentak’s mistakes.

kick me in the GO NATSmember
4 months ago
Reply to  VinnieDaGooch

tell me about it! (read with the voice)