2022 ZiPS Projections: Los Angeles Angels

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels.

Batters

The good news: the Los Angeles Angels have Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen. The bad news: the Los Angeles Angels play a sport where you have to give almost as many shots to Luc Longley and Stacey King as Jordan and Pippen. The Angels are a very star-driven team, and if something terrible happens to a star or two, it’s going to be hard to eke out first place in a division with four plausible contenders. If you can ensure that Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Anthony Rendon, and Noah Syndergaard all have full, healthy seasons, I think this is the team that can make the Astros sweat the most this summer. If not, I think the Angels’ playoff relevance will be on life support by the trade deadline. That is, assuming that Rob Manfred’s dystopian fever dream of every mediocre club getting a chance to knock off a 100-win team in the postseason by winning two of three games comes to pass.

What more can you really say about players like Trout and Ohtani at this point? They’re great! And some of the supporting cast ain’t half-bad either; ZiPS likes the team’s catching situation and thinks Jared Walsh is just fine as long as he’s in his prime years.

The problem is that what’s lousy about the team’s offense is really lousy. The depth chart graphic makes two-thirds of the outfield look all hunky-dory, but the truth is, it’s just Troutflation buttressing Brandon Marsh, who ZiPS is somewhat ambivalent about, and Justin Upton, who keeps starting for reasons the computer cannot comprehend. The shortstop combination is quite unimpressive as well, and while his 2021 performance in the upper minors turned his projection around, ZiPS doesn’t think Jo Adell is starting corner outfielder levels of good.

If the Angels want to do more than simply tour the country as Shohei Ohtani and His Merry Band, Featuring Mike Trout, they need to more aggressively address these positions than they did before the lockout. As blasphemous as this may sound, they also shouldn’t give unlimited rope to David Fletcher in 2022; he was awful last season after being far more swing-happy. He still made a ton of contact, but a lot of it was bad contact, pushing him closer to the Ozzie Guillen side of the spectrum than the Luis Castillo/Placido Polanco end of things. If he has a .600 OPS next May and is happily hitting unhittable pitches weakly into the dirt, I’d rather demote Fletch back to a utility role and see what Michael Stefanic can do.

Pitchers

The rotation could be respectable in 2022, something it definitely was not after Ohtani this past season. But that will require very healthy years from both Ohtani and Syndergaard, which shouldn’t be taken as a given at this point. Lose one or both of those guys for a significant stretch of time and the wheels come off fairly quickly, as the Angels aren’t blessed with a whole lot of “good-in-2022” depth, though ZiPS is actually reasonably optimistic about Reid Detmers, who performed admirably for a pitcher who was rushed through the minors very, very quickly in 2021.

Once you get past the names on the graphic and the struggling and injured Griffin Canning, any hope of adequate reinforcements fades quickly. ZiPS sees a lot of better-than-replacement-level talent out there but the team is short on names you really want starting for you in a pennant race. A lot of pitchers filtered through the Salt Lake Bees in 2021 as the Angels desperately sought cheap depth and most of them pitched terribly — Salt Lake didn’t have an ERA of six by sheer misfortune.

The rotation — and really, the whole team — looks like the expected result of an organization that will spend in big, short bursts but otherwise acts as if they’re in no particular hurry to build around an inner-circle Hall of Famer in his prime years. The Angels should never have started 2021 with the rotation they did, and if this is actually the group that begins the 2022 season, it will constitute a major failure of imagination.

ZiPS really likes Raisel Iglesias, Aaron Loup, and Mike Mayers in the ‘pen but is concerned about the depth afterward. It’s unfortunate that Chris Rodriguez will likely miss most of 2022 due to capsule surgery because the computer was getting fairly excited about the prospect of him on the team, at least as a reliever. The Angels could use a few upgrades here, but I’d still prioritize adding another arm in the rotation if I had to choose.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Mike Trout R 30 CF 452 358 77 98 19 2 29 78 82 107 9 1
Shohei Ohtani L 27 DH 586 501 90 131 25 6 38 101 79 171 21 8
Anthony Rendon R 32 3B 460 396 62 108 25 1 17 70 53 69 2 0
Jared Walsh L 28 1B 579 522 75 139 30 2 31 104 47 151 2 1
Michael Stefanic R 26 2B 529 482 65 128 19 0 12 45 36 79 4 4
David Fletcher R 28 2B 666 621 78 172 31 4 5 46 37 63 13 3
Luis Rengifo B 25 SS 485 437 56 107 18 4 12 45 37 93 11 6
Max Stassi R 31 C 293 260 35 58 10 1 11 32 25 91 0 0
Matt Thaiss L 27 C 485 427 63 100 19 2 16 58 50 114 2 1
Brandon Marsh L 24 CF 433 390 41 97 17 4 7 30 39 129 9 2
Taylor Ward R 28 RF 437 385 58 96 24 1 16 51 44 111 6 2
Andrew Velazquez B 27 SS 374 341 50 81 18 4 8 37 27 108 22 4
Dillon Thomas L 29 RF 427 382 51 88 17 2 11 45 31 137 11 4
Brendon Davis R 24 3B 521 474 51 108 20 2 20 58 34 145 8 3
Adam Eaton L 33 RF 446 391 62 95 17 3 9 36 38 92 7 1
Jose Rojas L 29 3B 472 432 59 99 23 2 16 54 35 111 5 2
Jack Mayfield R 31 3B 420 387 46 89 20 1 15 51 23 91 6 1
Jo Adell R 23 LF 483 448 53 108 20 4 21 76 28 138 8 3
Kean Wong L 27 2B 418 386 45 98 16 3 7 36 24 92 7 4
David MacKinnon R 27 1B 414 363 58 89 22 0 10 45 42 89 1 1
Braxton Martinez R 28 1B 365 321 51 73 17 1 14 49 35 68 0 1
Tyler Wade L 27 SS 344 309 44 69 13 3 4 21 29 87 19 6
Mitch Walding L 29 3B 280 240 31 41 8 1 9 28 37 127 2 1
Juan Lagares R 33 CF 304 285 35 72 15 2 5 29 14 72 2 2
Anthony Mulrine R 24 C 211 186 24 36 6 0 4 15 14 52 0 1
Michael Cruz L 26 C 208 187 24 39 7 0 8 24 14 56 0 0
Justin Upton R 34 LF 348 305 43 66 10 0 16 47 35 105 3 1
Orlando Martinez L 24 CF 451 420 48 96 20 2 14 47 25 119 4 3
Chad Wallach R 30 C 336 297 33 57 10 1 11 36 31 106 0 0
Dexter Fowler B 36 RF 457 395 53 86 15 1 13 49 52 121 6 3
Kurt Suzuki R 38 C 232 207 18 47 9 0 5 20 12 41 0 0
Phil Gosselin R 33 LF 366 333 38 79 14 2 6 37 27 83 2 2
Jon Jay L 37 LF 129 121 10 31 4 0 1 6 3 21 1 0
Gavin Cecchini R 28 SS 327 307 35 70 13 0 4 25 14 63 5 1
Gabe Matthews L 24 1B 214 191 26 32 7 0 6 21 19 62 1 0
Jake Gatewood R 26 CF 458 425 44 76 14 1 20 58 25 190 3 1
Trey Cabbage L 25 RF 434 400 48 82 16 2 20 58 29 174 4 0
Francisco Arcia L 32 C 211 199 17 42 5 0 2 14 7 46 2 1
Brennon Lund L 27 CF 352 323 34 65 14 2 8 32 21 106 4 2
Drew Butera R 38 C 255 226 19 36 8 1 4 17 19 81 2 1
Aaron Whitefield R 25 CF 434 397 46 78 12 2 5 28 27 139 21 8
Scott Schebler L 31 RF 324 295 33 53 11 0 9 30 20 105 2 1
Torii Hunter Jr. R 27 CF 352 321 30 63 9 2 5 19 26 122 10 3
Preston Palmeiro L 27 1B 432 402 41 83 15 1 10 38 25 112 3 2
Livan Soto L 22 SS 468 432 46 86 13 3 10 34 28 111 9 3
Franklin Torres R 25 C 326 301 31 62 11 1 4 21 23 94 1 0

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Mike Trout .274 .418 .581 169 .307 .311 9.2 0 5.0 Willie Mays
Shohei Ohtani .261 .363 .563 147 .301 .318 7.6 0 3.9 Kirk Gibson
Anthony Rendon .273 .363 .470 125 .197 .294 6.4 -1 2.7 Buddy Bell
Jared Walsh .266 .330 .510 124 .243 .318 6.2 0 2.3 Chad Tracy
Michael Stefanic .266 .328 .380 93 .114 .297 4.5 2 1.5 Luis Lopez
David Fletcher .277 .319 .364 86 .087 .302 4.5 3 1.4 Rennie Stennett
Luis Rengifo .245 .309 .387 89 .142 .286 4.2 3 1.4 Chris Pittaro
Max Stassi .223 .304 .396 89 .173 .297 4.2 6 1.4 Chad Moeller
Matt Thaiss .234 .317 .400 94 .166 .283 4.5 -3 1.4 Mike O’Keefe
Brandon Marsh .249 .319 .367 87 .118 .354 4.3 3 1.1 Rick Manning
Taylor Ward .249 .335 .442 110 .192 .310 5.4 -4 1.0 Dustan Mohr
Andrew Velazquez .238 .296 .384 84 .147 .324 4.5 -1 0.9 Nelson Liriano
Dillon Thomas .230 .308 .372 85 .141 .329 4.1 4 0.5 Mike Neill
Brendon Davis .228 .287 .405 86 .177 .285 4.1 -2 0.5 George Arias
Adam Eaton .243 .325 .371 90 .128 .297 4.4 0 0.5 Milt Thompson
Jose Rojas .229 .287 .403 85 .174 .272 4.1 -2 0.3 Greg Connors
Jack Mayfield .230 .278 .403 83 .173 .263 4.0 -1 0.3 Tom Brookens
Jo Adell .241 .291 .444 97 .203 .301 4.6 -4 0.3 Jeff Fiorentino
Kean Wong .254 .302 .365 81 .111 .317 4.0 -1 0.3 Tommy Shields
David MacKinnon .245 .328 .388 95 .143 .299 4.5 -2 0.2 Josh Pressley
Braxton Martinez .227 .307 .417 95 .190 .247 4.4 -1 0.2 Todd Betts
Tyler Wade .223 .295 .324 69 .100 .298 3.6 0 0.2 Tommy Murphy
Mitch Walding .171 .286 .325 67 .154 .308 3.0 4 0.2 Sean Mcnally
Juan Lagares .253 .289 .372 79 .119 .322 3.8 1 0.2 Chad Allen
Anthony Mulrine .194 .281 .290 57 .097 .246 2.6 2 0.0 Brad Erdman
Michael Cruz .209 .280 .374 77 .166 .252 3.6 -3 0.0 Dave Miley
Justin Upton .216 .302 .407 91 .190 .272 4.3 -5 -0.2 Damon Buford
Orlando Martinez .229 .273 .386 77 .157 .286 3.6 -3 -0.3 Mitch Einertson
Chad Wallach .192 .278 .343 69 .152 .256 3.2 -4 -0.3 Henry Blanco
Dexter Fowler .218 .316 .359 84 .142 .280 3.9 -5 -0.4 Jim Nettles
Kurt Suzuki .227 .294 .343 74 .116 .261 3.5 -7 -0.5 Steven Norris
Phil Gosselin .237 .296 .345 75 .108 .299 3.6 0 -0.5 Pedro Swann
Jon Jay .256 .281 .314 63 .058 .303 3.3 -3 -0.6 Brian Jordan
Gavin Cecchini .228 .258 .309 54 .081 .275 2.9 0 -0.7 Tony Rodriguez
Gabe Matthews .168 .257 .298 51 .131 .211 2.5 2 -0.7 Manelik Pimentel
Jake Gatewood .179 .230 .358 57 .179 .260 2.7 3 -0.8 Mark Fischer
Trey Cabbage .205 .263 .405 79 .200 .301 3.7 -6 -0.9 Juan Thomas
Francisco Arcia .211 .248 .266 41 .055 .265 2.3 -2 -1.0 Ken Huckaby
Brennon Lund .201 .256 .331 59 .130 .273 2.9 -3 -1.0 Randy Rigsby
Drew Butera .159 .238 .257 36 .097 .227 2.0 -4 -1.3 Tony Pena
Aaron Whitefield .196 .249 .275 43 .078 .289 2.4 3 -1.3 Onil Joseph
Scott Schebler .180 .248 .308 51 .129 .243 2.5 -1 -1.4 Jay Gainer
Torii Hunter Jr. .196 .262 .283 49 .087 .299 2.6 -5 -1.4 Tony Triplett
Preston Palmeiro .206 .253 .323 56 .117 .261 2.8 3 -1.5 Scott Seal
Livan Soto .199 .249 .313 52 .113 .244 2.7 -8 -1.7 Neifi Perez
Franklin Torres .206 .264 .289 51 .083 .286 2.6 -17 -2.3 Marc Sullivan

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Noah Syndergaard R 29 8 6 3.93 24 24 139.7 138 61 18 35 134 3.80
Shohei Ohtani R 27 6 4 3.63 21 21 111.7 92 45 13 42 132 3.65
Raisel Iglesias R 32 8 3 2.80 61 0 64.3 49 20 8 16 92 2.78
Patrick Sandoval L 25 6 5 4.13 22 18 100.3 89 46 15 42 116 4.19
José Suarez L 24 9 8 4.45 27 18 109.3 106 54 16 41 102 4.51
Reid Detmers L 22 6 6 4.41 21 21 87.7 84 43 14 35 99 4.37
Griffin Canning R 26 6 5 4.52 19 18 89.7 84 45 15 35 95 4.57
Davis Daniel R 25 6 6 4.84 24 23 113.3 117 61 19 40 105 4.70
Ty Buttrey R 29 6 5 3.76 67 0 69.3 63 29 9 22 77 3.77
Jhonathan Diaz L 25 7 7 4.86 21 18 96.3 100 52 13 41 80 4.74
Chris Rodriguez R 23 2 2 4.01 26 9 51.7 48 23 5 23 50 4.13
Mike Mayers R 30 5 3 3.82 63 2 66.0 58 28 9 24 80 3.71
Kyle Tyler R 25 5 5 4.82 26 15 99.0 102 53 14 41 76 4.94
Aaron Loup L 34 3 2 3.50 54 1 43.7 39 17 4 13 44 3.52
Cooper Criswell R 25 8 10 5.14 23 22 117.3 132 67 21 32 91 4.93
Ryan Smith L 24 6 7 5.14 24 21 112.0 121 64 20 40 94 5.06
Packy Naughton L 26 6 7 5.12 24 20 109.0 120 62 18 35 81 4.97
Michael Lorenzen R 30 2 2 4.05 43 1 53.3 49 24 6 22 51 4.08
Junior Guerra R 37 4 4 4.56 41 4 71.0 66 36 10 37 69 4.76
Brian Moran L 33 1 1 4.10 50 0 48.3 43 22 7 21 53 4.36
Steve Cishek R 36 2 1 4.22 66 0 59.7 54 28 6 30 55 4.50
José Quijada L 26 3 3 4.20 51 0 55.7 47 26 8 31 70 4.37
Andrew Wantz R 26 3 3 4.93 30 9 65.7 63 36 12 31 71 4.99
Robinson Pina R 23 6 7 5.34 23 22 94.3 94 56 15 58 92 5.30
Jake Lee R 27 2 2 4.50 7 5 24.0 24 12 4 10 21 4.97
Oliver Ortega R 25 4 4 4.94 38 7 71.0 71 39 10 38 64 5.03
Félix Peña R 32 4 5 5.08 31 8 78.0 80 44 13 31 68 4.95
Denny Brady R 25 3 3 5.12 11 8 45.7 48 26 8 20 38 5.30
Austin Warren R 26 5 4 4.55 39 1 57.3 54 29 8 29 59 4.61
Alex Claudio L 30 2 2 4.47 57 1 50.3 53 25 6 18 38 4.47
Jack Dashwood L 24 5 6 5.38 26 10 102.0 118 61 21 28 74 5.38
Gerardo Reyes R 29 4 4 4.59 57 0 64.7 57 33 10 33 84 4.31
Kenny Rosenberg L 26 4 6 5.51 22 10 78.3 82 48 14 41 70 5.44
Sam Selman L 31 1 2 4.86 44 1 46.3 41 25 7 26 49 4.97
Jaime Barría R 25 5 7 5.67 25 22 112.7 131 71 25 32 80 5.60
James Hoyt R 35 1 1 4.78 41 0 43.3 43 23 6 22 40 4.86
Brian Johnson L 31 3 4 5.63 20 11 62.3 70 39 12 28 49 5.55
Jimmy Herget R 28 4 4 4.80 51 0 60.0 57 32 10 29 63 4.90
Kolton Ingram L 25 1 1 4.87 34 0 40.7 41 22 5 23 37 4.88
Keith Rogalla R 26 3 3 5.23 28 2 41.3 44 24 6 23 32 5.33
Tyler Danish R 27 3 4 5.29 30 3 63.0 68 37 12 22 54 5.13
Jake Buchanan R 32 4 5 5.82 20 14 77.3 92 50 16 27 51 5.75
Janson Junk R 26 4 6 5.83 22 19 92.7 105 60 18 43 71 5.73
Jake Petricka R 34 3 4 5.19 34 0 43.3 45 25 7 20 38 5.12
Elvis Peguero R 25 4 4 5.10 32 0 54.7 59 31 8 24 43 5.05
Jose Marte R 26 4 5 5.75 31 9 61.0 61 39 10 43 58 5.67
Aaron Hernandez R 25 4 6 6.01 18 16 67.3 72 45 11 48 57 5.93
Boomer Biegalski R 27 4 5 5.72 17 3 50.3 56 32 12 19 43 5.88
Tim Peterson R 31 2 3 5.21 43 0 48.3 50 28 10 17 44 5.23
Connor Higgins L 25 2 3 5.25 39 0 48.0 48 28 6 31 42 5.12
Ben Rowen R 33 2 2 5.65 32 3 51.0 59 32 11 13 35 5.55
Zack Weiss R 30 2 3 5.65 27 1 36.7 37 23 7 22 38 5.55
Sean McLaughlin R 28 3 3 5.36 32 0 43.7 48 26 7 20 30 5.47
AJ Ramos R 35 1 1 5.36 39 0 47.0 46 28 9 25 50 5.27
Zach Linginfelter R 25 4 5 5.99 27 13 67.7 74 45 12 44 52 6.08
Zac Ryan R 28 2 3 5.48 30 0 42.7 41 26 7 29 44 5.50
Taylor Ahearn R 27 3 5 6.30 17 8 50.0 60 35 11 24 31 6.42
Thomas Pannone L 28 6 9 6.13 26 18 108.7 127 74 25 42 77 6.11
Matthias Dietz R 26 3 6 7.51 18 6 44.3 47 37 7 52 37 7.29

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Noah Syndergaard 8.6 2.3 1.2 6.0% 22.8% .304 113 89 2.6 Erik Hanson
Shohei Ohtani 10.6 3.4 1.0 9.0% 28.1% .287 122 82 2.4 A.J. Burnett
Raisel Iglesias 12.9 2.2 1.1 6.2% 35.8% .295 159 63 1.7 Robb Nen
Patrick Sandoval 10.4 3.8 1.3 9.8% 27.0% .292 108 93 1.6 Chris Capuano
José Suarez 8.4 3.4 1.3 8.7% 21.6% .292 100 100 1.3 Pete Schourek
Reid Detmers 10.2 3.6 1.4 9.2% 26.0% .307 101 99 1.2 Marty Bystrom
Griffin Canning 9.5 3.5 1.5 9.0% 24.5% .291 98 102 1.1 Paul Wilson
Davis Daniel 8.3 3.2 1.5 8.1% 21.3% .302 92 109 1.0 Steve Winfield
Ty Buttrey 10.0 2.9 1.2 7.5% 26.3% .298 118 85 0.9 Mike Burns
Jhonathan Diaz 7.5 3.8 1.2 9.6% 18.6% .301 91 109 0.8 Danny Borrell
Chris Rodriguez 8.7 4.0 0.9 10.1% 22.0% .299 111 90 0.8 Gary Reiter
Mike Mayers 10.9 3.3 1.2 8.6% 28.8% .301 116 86 0.8 Xavier Hernandez
Kyle Tyler 6.9 3.7 1.3 9.3% 17.3% .292 92 109 0.8 Jake Westbrook
Aaron Loup 9.1 2.7 0.8 7.1% 23.9% .294 127 79 0.7 Ricardo Rincon
Cooper Criswell 7.0 2.5 1.6 6.2% 17.7% .306 86 116 0.7 Clay Parker
Ryan Smith 7.6 3.2 1.6 8.1% 19.0% .301 86 116 0.6 Abe Alvarez
Packy Naughton 6.7 2.9 1.5 7.3% 16.9% .300 87 115 0.6 Eddie Priest
Michael Lorenzen 8.6 3.7 1.0 9.6% 22.3% .291 110 91 0.5 Marc Wilkins
Junior Guerra 8.7 4.7 1.3 11.8% 22.0% .287 97 103 0.4 Diego Segui
Brian Moran 9.9 3.9 1.3 10.0% 25.4% .288 108 92 0.4 Pete Richert
Steve Cishek 8.3 4.5 0.9 11.3% 20.7% .286 105 95 0.3 Ted Abernathy
José Quijada 11.3 5.0 1.3 12.7% 28.6% .293 106 95 0.3 Dennys Reyes
Andrew Wantz 9.7 4.2 1.6 10.7% 24.4% .295 90 111 0.3 Gene Harris
Robinson Pina 8.8 5.5 1.4 13.4% 21.2% .299 83 120 0.3 Donnie Elliott
Jake Lee 7.9 3.8 1.5 9.5% 20.0% .290 99 101 0.3 Tom Rowe
Oliver Ortega 8.1 4.8 1.3 11.8% 19.9% .298 90 111 0.2 Anthony Chavez
Félix Peña 7.8 3.6 1.5 9.0% 19.8% .295 87 114 0.2 Roberto Giron
Denny Brady 7.5 3.9 1.6 9.8% 18.5% .294 87 115 0.2 Dallas Braden
Austin Warren 9.3 4.6 1.3 11.4% 23.2% .297 98 103 0.2 Sal Urso
Alex Claudio 6.8 3.2 1.1 8.1% 17.2% .301 99 101 0.2 Jason Kershner
Jack Dashwood 6.5 2.5 1.9 6.2% 16.5% .302 82 121 0.1 Bill Mendek
Gerardo Reyes 11.7 4.6 1.4 11.6% 29.6% .307 97 103 0.1 Chris Booker
Kenny Rosenberg 8.0 4.7 1.6 11.5% 19.7% .300 80 124 0.0 George Riley
Sam Selman 9.5 5.1 1.4 12.6% 23.7% .281 91 109 0.0 Marshall Bridges
Jaime Barría 6.4 2.6 2.0 6.5% 16.1% .299 78 128 0.0 Nicholas Ungs
James Hoyt 8.3 4.6 1.2 11.3% 20.5% .298 93 108 0.0 Darrin Babineaux
Brian Johnson 7.1 4.0 1.7 9.9% 17.4% .304 79 127 -0.1 Bill Krueger
Jimmy Herget 9.5 4.4 1.5 10.9% 23.7% .294 92 108 -0.1 Jailen Peguero
Kolton Ingram 8.2 5.1 1.1 12.4% 19.9% .305 91 110 -0.1 Gary Wayne
Keith Rogalla 7.0 5.0 1.3 12.1% 16.8% .299 85 118 -0.1 Paul Schneider
Tyler Danish 7.7 3.1 1.7 7.9% 19.5% .301 84 119 -0.1 Joe Roa
Jake Buchanan 5.9 3.1 1.9 7.7% 14.6% .303 76 131 -0.2 Brian Tollberg
Janson Junk 6.9 4.2 1.7 10.1% 16.7% .303 76 131 -0.2 Chris Enochs
Jake Petricka 7.9 4.2 1.5 10.3% 19.5% .299 85 117 -0.2 Rodney Myers
Elvis Peguero 7.1 4.0 1.3 9.7% 17.4% .304 87 115 -0.2 Brian Wolfe
Jose Marte 8.6 6.3 1.5 15.0% 20.3% .297 77 130 -0.2 Mike Schultz
Aaron Hernandez 7.6 6.4 1.5 15.0% 17.8% .303 74 136 -0.3 Kevin Ritz
Boomer Biegalski 7.7 3.4 2.1 8.4% 19.1% .297 78 129 -0.3 Thad Markray
Tim Peterson 8.2 3.2 1.9 8.1% 20.9% .290 85 117 -0.3 Adam Eaton
Connor Higgins 7.9 5.8 1.1 14.0% 18.9% .298 85 118 -0.3 Mike Venafro
Ben Rowen 6.2 2.3 1.9 5.8% 15.6% .296 79 127 -0.3 Jose Bautista
Zack Weiss 9.3 5.4 1.7 13.0% 22.5% .300 79 127 -0.3 Darwin Cubillan
Sean McLaughlin 6.2 4.1 1.4 10.1% 15.1% .295 83 121 -0.3 John Koronka
AJ Ramos 9.6 4.8 1.7 11.8% 23.7% .296 83 121 -0.3 Jim Dougherty
Zach Linginfelter 6.9 5.9 1.6 13.8% 16.3% .298 74 135 -0.3 Ricky Steik
Zac Ryan 9.3 6.1 1.5 14.6% 22.2% .296 81 124 -0.4 John Davis
Taylor Ahearn 5.6 4.3 2.0 10.3% 13.3% .299 70 142 -0.4 Juan Done
Thomas Pannone 6.4 3.5 2.1 8.5% 15.6% .297 72 138 -0.6 Benj Sampson
Matthias Dietz 7.5 10.6 1.4 22.4% 15.9% .301 59 169 -1.0 Darin Moore

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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PC1970
Member
PC1970

Love the Trout/Willie Mays comp..Hate the 450 AB projection, though it’s warranted at this point.

Ohtani as a combo of Kirk Gibson/AJ Burnett..that’ll play.

grandbranyan
Member
Member
grandbranyan

Playing around with the plus stats leaderboards the closest recent-ish comps I could find for the two 2021 Shoheis were…

2021 Ohtani | 177 BB+ | 129 K+ | 104 AVG+ | 118 OBP+ | 142 SLG+ | 152 wRC+
2001 Manny | 158 BB+ | 144 K+ | 115 AVG+ | 121 OBP+ | 142 SLG+ | 156 wRC+

2021 Ohtani | 122 K+ | 93 BB+ | 81 HR+ | 73 ERA- | 80 FIP-
1997 Appier | 116 K+ | 81 BB+ | 83 HR+ | 74 ERA- | 81 FIP-

So Manny with a few more walks, few less Ks & singles at the plate and Appier with a few more Ks/BBs (& like 100 less IP) on the mound.

BenZobrist4MVP
Member
BenZobrist4MVP

A 7.7 two-way projection for Ohtani based on the Depth Charts playing time estimates. Not too shabby.

RobM
Member
RobM

The Gibson/Burnett combo actually “feels” a bit disappointing.

PC1970
Member
PC1970

Maybe..because neither guy was HOF caliber..but:

27 year old Gibby was a stud for the ’84 Tigers- 142 wRC+, 26 HR, 29 SB & he was holy terror on the base paths. 4.7 fWAR.

27 year old Burnett- 120 innings, 3.68 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 2.9 fWAR.

Probably the biggest difference is Gibby was a wild man, Ohtani is so reserved.