2023 ZiPS Projections: Milwaukee Brewers

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Milwaukee Brewers.

Batters

The nice thing about the Brewers is that when you look at their depth chart, they’re not truly awful anywhere. That’s easier said than done; the worst Brewers generally project better than even the worst Astros or Dodgers. This is a very solidly built team that has a pretty high floor, probably higher than a year ago when we gathered for this exercise. What they’re missing on the offense is just a bit of pizzaz. I think we’re at the point where we have to accept that Christian Yelich is Just a Guy, which leaves the Brewers sorely missing a superstar bat. Everyone is at least OK and some are pretty good, but that big bat (or lack thereof) is what separates the Brewers from teams like the Dodgers, Astros, Braves, and maybe the Mets when we look at the upcoming preseason projections.

If you glance at the depth chart, you might think that it’s Garrett Mitchell who ZiPS is big on, but it’s actually Sal Frelick, who ZiPS sees as having more upside. ZiPS thinks his contact skills will play in the majors fairly quickly, his long-term upside in terms of batting average is quite high, and he has just enough power to make him really interesting. ZiPS isn’t quite as excited about Brice Turang, but does seem him as being at least a passable starter at second, though a downgrade from Kolten Wong.

I really have no idea what the Brewers think of Keston Hiura at this point. His strikeout numbers remain alarmingly high, but there’s a bright spot in that his contact stats actually took a significant step forward. Not so far as to lift him out of the abysmal category, but enough to get him out of a tier he was occupying all by himself. If the contact numbers hold, the strikeout rates should come down a bit. I find how Milwaukee uses Hiura to be really weird. His better overall results when making contact didn’t seem to make the Brewers any more interested in getting him playing time than they were when he was at his absolute worst. They use him like a guy they’re not big on, but they still keep him around.

Anyway, there may not be much to fall head-over-heels in love with here, but there’s not much to hate, either. The downgrade at second is probably cancelled out by the improvement from Andrew McCutchen to Jesse Winker ‘n’ Friends. The Brewers were sixth in the NL in runs scored in 2022 and I imagine they’ll be there again.

Pitchers

Now here is where we see the team’s star power. ZiPS is a big fan of the rotation, and though it doesn’t like Aaron Ashby as much as Steamer does, it compensates by liking Freddy Peralta more. As fifth starters go, Ashby ought to be one of, if not the best in baseball. Corbin Burnes, despite some less impressive stretches in 2022, will still places very high in the ZiPS WAR rankings (first at the moment) by virtue of the fact that a lot of the competition has age or injury issues.

Looking only at the pitchers on the 18 teams run so far, the Brewers also have the fourth-best starter in Brandon Woodruff. He’s now been mostly healthy for three years — the 2022 injury was a sprained ankle rather than some darker story involving an elbow or shoulder — and together with Burnes, makes for one of the best one-two punches around. That makes the Brewers a very dangerous team come playoff time, and the roster overall is strong enough that they have very good chances of participating in said playoffs. Having Adrian Houser in reserve is pretty nice.

The future does worry ZiPS a bit. The computer likes Robert Gasser, but is generally unsure if the Brewers will get much long-term rotation reinforcement from their current slate of prospects. Peralta and Ashby are locked up, but Burnes, Woodruff, and Eric Lauer all hit free agency after 2024, and that kind of talent is hard to replace. But to paraphrase Mitch Hedberg, the later might suck, but the beginning and middle will be amazing.

The bullpen doesn’t get the lofty projections it did in past years, mainly because of the lack of Josh Hader. But there are still a lot of pitchers ZiPS really likes in Milwaukee’s ‘pen, and some of the more ordinary overall projection here is due to a couple of pitchers ZiPS really isn’t a fan of, namely Javy Guerra and Justin Topa. Devin Williams is terrific, and the computer likes a lot of the other hurlers who will feature in high-leverage situations, like Hoby Milner, Matt Bush, Peter Strzelecki, and Jake Cousins.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Willy Adames R 27 SS 610 551 83 139 31 1 29 90 56 160 6 3
Luis Urías R 26 3B 544 473 68 115 22 2 19 67 56 114 3 2
Rowdy Tellez L 28 1B 592 522 66 129 23 0 32 92 61 121 2 1
Christian Yelich L 31 LF 590 502 83 123 23 3 17 66 81 140 16 3
Sal Frelick L 23 CF 518 471 64 123 20 5 8 61 38 77 12 5
William Contreras R 25 C 428 386 52 95 16 1 18 55 38 113 1 1
Tyrone Taylor R 29 CF 390 354 46 87 19 2 15 56 25 94 4 1
Jesse Winker L 29 LF 508 428 61 105 21 1 17 60 71 90 0 1
Abraham Toro B 26 2B 481 428 61 106 21 3 14 60 42 82 5 2
Brice Turang L 23 SS 579 521 69 123 21 2 9 56 53 126 17 3
Garrett Mitchell L 24 CF 373 336 48 84 18 2 7 45 29 123 18 1
Mike Brosseau R 29 3B 348 307 40 72 14 1 12 46 31 93 3 1
Keston Hiura R 26 1B 434 381 52 88 18 1 21 66 37 154 6 3
Victor Caratini B 29 C 326 285 29 64 12 0 8 35 33 70 1 1
Alex Jackson R 27 C 264 235 27 46 11 1 12 37 18 99 1 1
Joey Wiemer R 24 RF 510 459 62 99 21 2 16 64 42 159 15 3
Felix Valerio R 22 2B 503 450 57 102 20 2 9 52 41 101 15 6
Andrew McCutchen R 36 LF 482 419 61 96 20 0 17 58 56 109 6 3
Jon Singleton L 31 1B 512 419 61 81 19 1 16 51 87 172 2 0
Blake Perkins B 26 CF 397 348 43 69 12 3 8 38 42 114 10 2
Jonathan Davis R 31 CF 328 278 44 58 10 2 5 31 36 87 12 3
Eric Brown Jr. R 22 SS 121 107 15 24 6 1 2 14 10 29 8 1
Andruw Monasterio R 26 SS 431 386 53 89 17 2 6 43 38 114 6 4
Eddy Alvarez L 33 SS 239 207 31 47 9 2 5 29 21 65 4 3
Owen Miller R 26 1B 491 449 52 105 23 1 9 52 33 106 2 1
Tyler Black L 22 2B 270 233 32 51 9 2 3 25 32 61 6 4
Payton Henry R 26 C 317 285 27 57 10 0 6 40 20 112 0 1
Cam Devanney R 26 SS 445 402 40 84 19 1 11 54 31 126 3 2
Weston Wilson R 28 3B 422 385 49 80 17 1 13 48 33 132 8 2
Jackson Chourio R 19 CF 417 388 52 85 18 3 14 55 23 138 7 3
Matt Lipka R 31 CF 323 294 43 66 12 3 5 34 22 100 17 3
Brian Navarreto R 28 C 182 169 18 36 5 0 5 20 9 38 0 1
Freddy Zamora R 24 SS 303 274 32 60 12 0 3 27 23 74 4 2
Patrick Dorrian L 27 1B 399 359 39 69 14 2 11 43 37 138 2 1
Isaac Collins B 25 2B 441 391 52 83 18 3 4 39 38 110 13 5
Jadher Areinamo R 19 3B 273 251 34 57 10 2 1 23 17 53 3 3
Zavier Warren B 24 3B 477 432 43 88 19 2 9 48 36 127 4 1
Brent Diaz R 27 C 230 208 18 40 8 0 4 26 14 78 2 2
Wes Clarke R 23 1B 368 317 28 65 15 0 10 40 42 121 0 1
Ben Metzinger R 24 3B 123 111 14 21 2 1 2 12 10 46 1 1
Ethan Murray R 23 SS 361 327 31 64 14 1 4 31 27 104 6 2
Corey Ray L 28 CF 290 271 28 54 14 1 9 33 16 114 5 2
Garrett Whitley R 26 RF 386 336 46 64 17 3 9 41 44 153 9 4
Nick Kahle R 25 C 205 187 16 33 9 0 3 18 14 74 1 1
Tristen Lutz R 24 LF 349 316 31 66 13 1 9 40 26 122 1 2
Eduardo Garcia R 20 SS 461 438 41 85 14 2 11 53 14 196 6 2
Terence Doston L 22 CF 159 143 17 29 2 0 1 14 11 47 3 2
Carlos Rodriguez L 22 LF 281 258 27 55 11 2 2 23 20 74 7 3
Darrien Miller L 22 C 367 312 45 63 9 1 9 45 35 104 3 1
Noah Campbell B 24 LF 313 277 33 56 13 1 2 27 30 94 5 2
Joe Gray Jr. R 23 RF 500 451 46 80 17 3 12 53 36 204 9 2

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Willy Adames 610 .252 .321 .470 114 .218 .304 3 4.2 .338
Luis Urías 544 .243 .336 .419 106 .175 .282 1 2.7 .330
Rowdy Tellez 592 .247 .331 .475 118 .228 .263 -2 2.1 .342
Christian Yelich 590 .245 .354 .404 108 .159 .307 -2 2.0 .331
Sal Frelick 518 .261 .323 .376 92 .115 .298 2 1.8 .306
William Contreras 428 .246 .318 .433 104 .187 .302 -6 1.7 .324
Tyrone Taylor 390 .246 .308 .438 102 .192 .294 0 1.7 .321
Jesse Winker 508 .245 .362 .418 114 .173 .274 -6 1.6 .344
Abraham Toro 481 .248 .324 .409 100 .161 .277 -4 1.6 .319
Brice Turang 579 .236 .306 .336 77 .100 .295 3 1.6 .284
Garrett Mitchell 373 .250 .320 .378 91 .128 .374 -1 1.4 .307
Mike Brosseau 348 .235 .319 .404 97 .169 .297 0 1.3 .316
Keston Hiura 434 .231 .319 .449 108 .218 .325 0 1.3 .331
Victor Caratini 326 .225 .316 .351 83 .126 .271 1 1.0 .294
Alex Jackson 264 .196 .280 .404 85 .209 .274 2 1.0 .296
Joey Wiemer 510 .216 .288 .375 80 .159 .292 7 0.8 .288
Felix Valerio 503 .227 .300 .340 76 .113 .274 2 0.8 .283
Andrew McCutchen 482 .229 .322 .399 97 .169 .270 -2 0.7 .315
Jon Singleton 512 .193 .330 .358 89 .165 .281 2 0.7 .307
Blake Perkins 397 .198 .289 .319 67 .121 .270 5 0.7 .272
Jonathan Davis 328 .209 .321 .313 76 .104 .285 0 0.6 .289
Eric Brown Jr. 121 .224 .306 .355 81 .131 .289 1 0.5 .292
Andruw Monasterio 431 .231 .304 .332 75 .101 .312 -2 0.5 .283
Eddy Alvarez 239 .227 .324 .362 88 .135 .307 -4 0.4 .304
Owen Miller 491 .234 .291 .350 75 .116 .287 9 0.3 .281
Tyler Black 270 .219 .322 .313 76 .094 .284 -1 0.3 .289
Payton Henry 317 .200 .274 .298 58 .098 .305 2 0.2 .258
Cam Devanney 445 .209 .276 .343 69 .134 .275 -2 0.1 .273
Weston Wilson 422 .208 .273 .358 72 .151 .279 -1 0.1 .276
Jackson Chourio 417 .219 .266 .389 77 .170 .301 -3 0.0 .281
Matt Lipka 323 .224 .287 .337 71 .112 .323 -3 0.0 .275
Brian Navarreto 182 .213 .260 .331 61 .118 .246 0 0.0 .259
Freddy Zamora 303 .219 .287 .296 61 .077 .289 -1 -0.1 .262
Patrick Dorrian 399 .192 .271 .334 65 .142 .276 8 -0.1 .267
Isaac Collins 441 .212 .292 .304 65 .092 .285 -1 -0.2 .268
Jadher Areinamo 273 .227 .286 .295 60 .068 .284 2 -0.2 .258
Zavier Warren 477 .204 .273 .319 62 .116 .267 2 -0.2 .263
Brent Diaz 230 .192 .265 .288 52 .096 .286 0 -0.2 .250
Wes Clarke 368 .205 .304 .347 79 .142 .296 0 -0.2 .290
Ben Metzinger 123 .189 .268 .279 51 .090 .302 0 -0.2 .248
Ethan Murray 361 .196 .264 .281 50 .086 .274 2 -0.3 .245
Corey Ray 290 .199 .245 .358 63 .159 .304 -2 -0.5 .260
Garrett Whitley 386 .190 .293 .339 73 .149 .316 -2 -0.5 .282
Nick Kahle 205 .176 .240 .273 41 .096 .273 0 -0.5 .230
Tristen Lutz 349 .209 .278 .342 69 .133 .308 0 -0.6 .273
Eduardo Garcia 461 .194 .232 .311 47 .116 .320 2 -0.7 .237
Terence Doston 159 .203 .278 .238 44 .035 .295 -3 -0.8 .240
Carlos Rodriguez 281 .213 .274 .295 57 .081 .291 -1 -0.9 .252
Darrien Miller 367 .202 .315 .324 76 .122 .271 -19 -0.9 .291
Noah Campbell 313 .202 .288 .278 57 .076 .298 -3 -1.2 .258
Joe Gray Jr. 500 .177 .250 .308 52 .131 .289 2 -1.5 .248

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Willy Adames Pinky Higgins Jim Morrison Scott Rolen
Luis Urías Chris Speier Edwin Encarnacion Carmen Fanzone
Rowdy Tellez Justin Morneau Kent Hrbek Tino Martinez
Christian Yelich Dexter Fowler Ross Youngs Robbie Grossman
Sal Frelick Oswaldo Olivares Jacoby Ellsbury Thomas Agosta
William Contreras Gus Triandos Rob Natal Ron Hassey
Tyrone Taylor Willie Smith Ellis Burks Brennan Boesch
Jesse Winker Cal Emery Ron Fairly Dan Johnson
Abraham Toro Fred Frazier Jerry Browne Sal Bando
Brice Turang Kevin Stocker Denny Hocking Brian Roberts
Garrett Mitchell Ken Griffey Jerome Walton Richard Prigatano
Mike Brosseau Junior Spivey Joe Dillon Kurt Bevacqua
Keston Hiura Dan Thomas Kyle Blanks Russ Rosburg
Victor Caratini Tucker Barnhart Curt Casali Ron Hodges
Alex Jackson Dan Coury Bruce Bochy Bill Schroeder
Joey Wiemer Blake Tekotte Eugenio Cotes Kevin Belcher
Felix Valerio Drew Maggi Pablo Reyes German Barranca
Andrew McCutchen Ira Flagstead Coco Crisp Wally Judnich
Jon Singleton Graham Koonce Pat Dodson Mark Johnson
Blake Perkins Harry Chappas Ed Alicea Chris Sidick
Jonathan Davis Eric Bruntlett Reggie Willits Rick Miller
Eric Brown Jr. Freddie Lebron Alberto Triunfel George Grant
Andruw Monasterio Ricky Gutierrez Joe Sondrini Kevin Russo
Eddy Alvarez Tony Graffanino Chris Clapinski Bobby Scales
Owen Miller Venoy Garrison Tim Belk Ty Wright
Tyler Black Kevin Riggs Jackie Rexrode Jake Thrower
Payton Henry Alex Kowalczyk Jason Townley Tom Nieto
Cam Devanney Gaylen Pitts Oscar Salazar Clay Bellinger
Weston Wilson Marty Castillo Taylor Featherston Jeff Moronko
Jackson Chourio Sean Ross Jorge Roque Jose Gonzalez
Matt Lipka Gary Thurman Adam Engel Glen Barker
Brian Navarreto John Stephenson Daryl Westerfield Steve Morales
Freddy Zamora Tyler Filliben Ryan Riley Brett Pope
Patrick Dorrian James Brunette Brett Bonvechio Orsino Hill
Isaac Collins Jesus Medrano Juan Castillo Lucius Fox
Jadher Areinamo Eugene Helder Johan Camargo Riley Smith
Zavier Warren Jim Skaalen Aaron Boone Van Pope
Brent Diaz Nick Trzesniak Danny Baich Rick Guarno
Wes Clarke Richie Grayum Douglas Slettvet Wyley Steelmon
Ben Metzinger Jason Leblebijian Lou Melucci Rafael Valera
Ethan Murray Brad Freeman Craig Daedelow Derek Mitchell
Corey Ray Sean Ross Blake Tekotte George Lott
Garrett Whitley Skip Kiil Clifton Matthew Brett Jackson
Nick Kahle John Francis Don Prybylinski Michael Vaughn
Tristen Lutz Heath Quinn Earl Averill Tom Ealy
Eduardo Garcia Stewart Grim Oneil Cruz Pat Valaika
Terence Doston Jose Crisotomo Tim Demerson Tyreace House
Carlos Rodriguez Jake McCarthy Nick Ciolli Rashad Brown
Darrien Miller Derek Parks Joe Nolan Dave Massarelli
Noah Campbell Ty Bilderback Sylvester Swindler Travis Becktel
Joe Gray Jr. Joe Gray Randy Simmons Bert Pena

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Willy Adames .276 .344 .532 135 5.8 .228 .295 .420 96 2.9
Luis Urías .267 .362 .472 125 4.0 .222 .311 .371 88 1.5
Rowdy Tellez .270 .358 .533 136 3.5 .224 .307 .425 98 0.7
Christian Yelich .267 .378 .452 126 3.3 .220 .329 .358 91 0.7
Sal Frelick .284 .348 .414 107 2.7 .231 .298 .332 73 0.6
William Contreras .271 .343 .481 124 2.8 .217 .291 .379 85 0.7
Tyrone Taylor .269 .328 .488 120 2.6 .214 .279 .382 81 0.7
Jesse Winker .267 .387 .471 133 2.8 .221 .334 .366 96 0.5
Abraham Toro .272 .352 .458 117 2.7 .223 .304 .367 83 0.6
Brice Turang .260 .331 .380 94 2.8 .212 .277 .299 60 0.3
Garrett Mitchell .278 .349 .431 110 2.3 .219 .286 .332 68 0.3
Mike Brosseau .262 .346 .459 117 2.2 .208 .290 .355 78 0.5
Keston Hiura .259 .346 .511 131 2.6 .201 .293 .392 87 0.2
Victor Caratini .253 .347 .406 107 2.0 .197 .289 .301 65 0.3
Alex Jackson .223 .310 .473 108 1.7 .167 .249 .336 59 0.2
Joey Wiemer .240 .314 .427 98 2.0 .189 .260 .331 60 -0.5
Felix Valerio .252 .325 .386 91 1.8 .197 .274 .294 55 -0.5
Andrew McCutchen .253 .349 .447 116 1.9 .204 .296 .347 80 -0.3
Jon Singleton .218 .360 .413 110 1.9 .170 .300 .308 71 -0.6
Blake Perkins .223 .315 .366 88 1.7 .173 .260 .280 51 -0.1
Jonathan Davis .232 .349 .354 93 1.3 .185 .293 .272 59 -0.1
Eric Brown Jr. .258 .335 .426 106 0.9 .196 .277 .303 62 0.2
Andruw Monasterio .256 .330 .371 91 1.3 .208 .277 .293 59 -0.4
Eddy Alvarez .252 .348 .412 106 0.9 .203 .303 .318 72 -0.1
Owen Miller .255 .317 .393 94 1.5 .210 .267 .312 60 -0.6
Tyler Black .248 .352 .360 95 1.0 .194 .295 .275 60 -0.3
Payton Henry .231 .305 .345 76 0.9 .170 .247 .251 38 -0.7
Cam Devanney .232 .300 .395 87 1.2 .183 .248 .299 51 -0.9
Weston Wilson .229 .298 .412 87 1.0 .179 .243 .307 50 -1.1
Jackson Chourio .247 .294 .440 98 1.1 .196 .242 .344 60 -0.9
Matt Lipka .254 .312 .382 90 0.9 .201 .259 .291 53 -0.8
Brian Navarreto .244 .290 .392 84 0.5 .183 .227 .282 41 -0.5
Freddy Zamora .244 .313 .334 77 0.6 .195 .260 .268 46 -0.7
Patrick Dorrian .220 .299 .391 86 0.9 .168 .247 .290 47 -1.1
Isaac Collins .234 .316 .338 81 0.7 .190 .270 .272 51 -1.0
Jadher Areinamo .255 .316 .338 79 0.5 .200 .261 .259 44 -0.7
Zavier Warren .230 .295 .366 79 0.8 .180 .246 .279 45 -1.2
Brent Diaz .218 .296 .333 72 0.4 .160 .237 .241 32 -0.8
Wes Clarke .232 .332 .388 96 0.6 .180 .276 .299 60 -1.1
Ben Metzinger .220 .299 .339 75 0.1 .162 .239 .235 33 -0.5
Ethan Murray .222 .292 .329 69 0.6 .168 .239 .241 34 -1.1
Corey Ray .224 .271 .416 83 0.3 .173 .218 .312 44 -1.1
Garrett Whitley .218 .319 .388 93 0.4 .161 .265 .294 54 -1.4
Nick Kahle .206 .271 .316 59 0.0 .149 .210 .227 21 -1.0
Tristen Lutz .234 .302 .391 88 0.1 .185 .254 .304 53 -1.3
Eduardo Garcia .221 .257 .368 69 0.5 .168 .203 .267 30 -1.8
Terence Doston .229 .305 .272 61 -0.5 .180 .253 .208 30 -1.1
Carlos Rodriguez .239 .300 .334 73 -0.3 .187 .248 .254 40 -1.5
Darrien Miller .233 .345 .379 98 0.1 .177 .286 .282 61 -1.6
Noah Campbell .230 .317 .314 73 -0.5 .180 .266 .243 41 -1.8
Joe Gray Jr. .203 .276 .354 70 -0.3 .151 .223 .264 34 -2.6

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Devin Williams R 28 7 3 2.79 60 0 58.0 38 18 5 29 88
Brandon Woodruff R 30 12 5 2.96 28 28 158.0 126 52 16 40 184
Corbin Burnes R 28 12 5 2.99 31 29 174.3 137 58 16 46 215
Hoby Milner L 32 3 2 3.62 55 0 54.7 50 22 7 13 59
Freddy Peralta R 27 6 5 3.67 26 20 103.0 80 42 12 38 125
Jake Cousins R 28 2 2 3.71 39 0 43.7 34 18 6 17 56
Luis Perdomo R 30 3 3 3.72 40 2 58.0 55 24 6 15 47
Jandel Gustave R 30 2 1 3.83 39 0 40.0 36 17 4 13 35
Matt Bush R 37 2 2 3.88 51 5 46.3 37 20 7 18 56
Luke Barker R 31 4 3 3.89 37 0 41.7 38 18 6 12 41
Peter Strzelecki R 28 3 2 3.97 49 0 56.7 50 25 9 21 68
Aaron Ashby L 25 6 6 4.00 26 18 101.3 89 45 12 47 117
Eric Lauer L 28 8 8 4.02 26 25 138.7 129 62 21 47 133
Joel Payamps R 29 4 4 4.09 38 3 61.7 60 28 8 19 51
Trevor Kelley R 29 4 3 4.15 48 0 52.0 47 24 7 21 53
Cam Robinson R 23 2 2 4.19 49 0 58.0 50 27 6 33 62
Adrian Houser R 30 7 8 4.23 25 22 110.7 105 52 12 47 81
Tyler Herb R 31 7 8 4.24 22 18 104.0 111 49 14 28 83
Marcus Walden R 34 2 3 4.25 25 5 53.0 52 25 6 20 42
Robert Gasser L 24 8 9 4.28 25 25 120.0 112 57 15 49 119
Andy Otero L 31 2 2 4.34 22 8 64.3 65 31 8 22 50
Thomas Pannone L 29 5 6 4.73 21 14 83.7 90 44 11 25 65
Miguel Sánchez R 29 3 4 4.35 36 1 41.3 41 20 6 18 35
Collin Wiles R 29 7 9 4.40 25 21 122.7 132 60 18 28 86
Javy Guerra R 27 2 2 4.44 53 0 48.7 45 24 7 23 47
Elvis Peguero R 26 3 2 4.45 41 0 54.7 52 27 7 19 50
Ethan Small L 26 5 6 4.48 25 20 92.3 83 46 12 54 95
Adam Seminaris L 24 7 9 4.48 23 20 94.3 95 47 13 37 78
Dylan File R 27 6 7 4.50 22 18 100.0 105 50 15 27 77
Ryan Middendorf R 25 3 3 4.50 21 0 40.0 38 20 6 13 35
Janson Junk R 27 4 5 4.54 20 17 83.3 84 42 12 29 71
Tyson Miller R 27 6 6 4.55 27 16 91.0 87 46 12 39 86
Justin Yeager R 25 1 2 4.57 41 0 43.3 37 22 7 25 52
Caleb Boushley R 29 6 6 4.57 22 20 104.3 111 53 15 32 76
Thomas Jankins R 27 4 5 4.57 20 14 80.7 85 41 11 27 57
James Meeker R 28 3 4 4.61 39 2 52.7 54 27 7 18 39
Brandon Knarr L 25 7 9 4.64 23 22 120.3 118 62 17 54 105
Josh Lindblom 린드블럼 R 36 5 6 4.65 22 19 100.7 104 52 16 38 88
Trevor Rosenthal R 33 0 1 4.66 32 0 29.0 20 15 3 22 40
Matt Hardy R 27 3 3 4.70 34 1 46.0 46 24 7 18 43
Victor Castaneda R 24 5 7 4.73 25 22 104.7 104 55 16 47 93
Luis Contreras R 27 2 3 4.74 28 1 43.7 38 23 8 24 53
Justin Topa R 32 1 2 4.74 23 0 24.7 26 13 3 10 19
Robbie Baker R 28 2 3 4.78 33 1 49.0 51 26 8 17 40
Nick Bennett L 25 7 8 4.80 22 20 105.0 103 56 15 46 91
Alec Bettinger R 27 4 5 4.83 19 15 82.0 86 44 13 29 65
Tobias Myers R 24 6 9 5.26 23 21 89.0 93 52 14 40 65
Jason Alexander R 30 5 7 4.84 25 16 106.0 116 57 15 38 75
Zack Brown R 28 2 2 4.88 34 7 62.7 61 34 8 32 55
Hobie Harris R 30 3 3 4.91 43 0 40.3 37 22 7 23 43
Kent Hasler R 27 3 4 4.93 38 0 49.3 46 27 8 27 54
Taylor Floyd R 25 3 5 4.94 38 0 51.0 46 28 7 33 53
Justin Jarvis R 23 7 11 4.96 26 26 118.0 117 65 18 64 101
J.C. Mejía R 26 3 3 4.98 22 8 47.0 45 26 7 23 45
Justin Bullock R 24 4 6 5.07 17 17 71.0 77 40 12 26 47
Gus Varland R 26 3 4 5.15 32 7 57.7 56 33 9 32 52
Harold Chirino R 25 3 4 5.17 37 0 47.0 46 27 7 24 43
Lucas Erceg R 28 3 4 5.26 38 5 51.3 49 30 7 38 47
TJ Shook R 25 3 5 5.26 21 18 92.3 91 54 15 49 81
Zach Vennaro R 27 2 4 5.36 41 0 43.7 43 26 7 27 42
Rex Brothers L 35 1 2 5.77 34 1 34.3 29 22 7 28 48
Abner Uribe R 23 0 1 5.97 16 4 28.7 25 19 5 28 34

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Devin Williams 58.0 13.7 4.5 0.8 12.0% 36.4% .284 147 2.89 68 1.5
Brandon Woodruff 158.0 10.5 2.3 0.9 6.3% 29.1% .282 139 3.01 72 4.0
Corbin Burnes 174.3 11.1 2.4 0.8 6.5% 30.6% .289 137 2.81 73 4.4
Hoby Milner 54.7 9.7 2.1 1.2 5.8% 26.3% .299 113 3.59 88 0.5
Freddy Peralta 103.0 10.9 3.3 1.0 9.0% 29.5% .276 112 3.52 89 1.9
Jake Cousins 43.7 11.5 3.5 1.2 9.3% 30.6% .280 111 3.82 90 0.4
Luis Perdomo 58.0 7.3 2.3 0.9 6.2% 19.5% .285 110 3.76 91 0.6
Jandel Gustave 40.0 7.9 2.9 0.9 7.7% 20.8% .281 107 3.90 93 0.2
Matt Bush 46.3 10.9 3.5 1.4 9.3% 28.9% .273 106 4.06 95 0.6
Luke Barker 41.7 8.9 2.6 1.3 6.8% 23.3% .283 106 4.07 95 0.3
Peter Strzelecki 56.7 10.8 3.3 1.4 8.8% 28.3% .293 103 4.09 97 0.3
Aaron Ashby 101.3 10.4 4.2 1.1 10.7% 26.7% .298 103 3.92 97 1.4
Eric Lauer 138.7 8.6 3.1 1.4 8.0% 22.7% .283 102 4.29 98 1.9
Joel Payamps 61.7 7.4 2.8 1.2 7.3% 19.5% .287 100 4.21 100 0.5
Trevor Kelley 52.0 9.2 3.6 1.2 9.5% 23.9% .288 99 4.25 101 0.2
Cam Robinson 58.0 9.6 5.1 0.9 12.5% 23.6% .289 98 4.22 102 0.1
Adrian Houser 110.7 6.6 3.8 1.0 9.8% 16.9% .278 97 4.54 103 1.3
Tyler Herb 104.0 7.2 2.4 1.2 6.2% 18.5% .305 97 4.29 103 1.3
Marcus Walden 53.0 7.1 3.4 1.0 8.7% 18.3% .289 97 4.34 103 0.5
Robert Gasser 120.0 8.9 3.7 1.1 9.4% 22.9% .294 96 4.19 104 1.4
Andy Otero 64.3 7.0 3.1 1.1 7.9% 18.1% .292 95 4.38 106 0.6
Thomas Pannone 83.7 7.0 2.7 1.2 6.9% 17.9% .305 95 4.31 105 0.9
Miguel Sánchez 41.3 7.6 3.9 1.3 9.8% 19.1% .289 94 4.80 106 0.1
Collin Wiles 122.7 6.3 2.1 1.3 5.4% 16.5% .295 93 4.47 107 1.2
Javy Guerra 48.7 8.7 4.3 1.3 10.7% 22.0% .284 93 4.63 108 0.0
Elvis Peguero 54.7 8.2 3.1 1.2 8.0% 21.1% .290 92 4.31 108 0.0
Ethan Small 92.3 9.3 5.3 1.2 12.9% 22.7% .287 92 4.67 109 0.9
Adam Seminaris 94.3 7.4 3.5 1.2 8.9% 18.8% .293 92 4.63 109 0.9
Dylan File 100.0 6.9 2.4 1.4 6.3% 18.1% .295 91 4.55 110 0.9
Ryan Middendorf 40.0 7.9 2.9 1.4 7.6% 20.6% .281 91 4.48 110 -0.1
Janson Junk 83.3 7.7 3.1 1.3 8.1% 19.8% .294 91 4.40 110 0.8
Tyson Miller 91.0 8.5 3.9 1.2 9.8% 21.7% .293 90 4.40 111 0.8
Justin Yeager 43.3 10.8 5.2 1.5 13.0% 26.9% .286 90 4.72 111 -0.1
Caleb Boushley 104.3 6.6 2.8 1.3 7.1% 16.9% .295 90 4.60 111 0.9
Thomas Jankins 80.7 6.4 3.0 1.2 7.6% 16.1% .292 90 4.70 111 0.7
James Meeker 52.7 6.7 3.1 1.2 7.9% 17.0% .290 89 4.71 112 0.0
Brandon Knarr 120.3 7.9 4.0 1.3 10.2% 19.8% .290 89 4.72 113 1.0
Josh Lindblom 100.7 7.9 3.4 1.4 8.6% 19.9% .298 88 4.75 113 0.7
Trevor Rosenthal 29.0 12.4 6.8 0.9 16.5% 30.1% .274 88 4.53 113 -0.1
Matt Hardy 46.0 8.4 3.5 1.4 9.0% 21.4% .298 87 4.70 114 0.0
Victor Castaneda 104.7 8.0 4.0 1.4 10.2% 20.1% .292 87 4.83 115 0.7
Luis Contreras 43.7 10.9 4.9 1.6 12.4% 27.3% .286 87 5.10 115 -0.1
Justin Topa 24.7 6.9 3.6 1.1 9.2% 17.4% .303 87 4.65 115 -0.1
Robbie Baker 49.0 7.3 3.1 1.5 7.9% 18.6% .295 86 4.87 116 -0.1
Nick Bennett 105.0 7.8 3.9 1.3 10.0% 19.7% .289 86 4.91 117 0.6
Alec Bettinger 82.0 7.1 3.2 1.4 8.1% 18.2% .294 85 4.80 118 0.4
Tobias Myers 89.0 6.6 4.0 1.4 10.1% 16.4% .288 82 5.19 122 0.4
Jason Alexander 106.0 6.4 3.2 1.3 8.1% 16.0% .301 85 4.85 118 0.5
Zack Brown 62.7 7.9 4.6 1.1 11.3% 19.5% .293 84 4.78 119 0.1
Hobie Harris 40.3 9.6 5.1 1.6 12.6% 23.6% .286 84 5.14 120 -0.2
Kent Hasler 49.3 9.9 4.9 1.5 11.9% 23.8% .295 83 4.77 120 -0.2
Taylor Floyd 51.0 9.4 5.8 1.2 14.1% 22.6% .287 83 5.09 120 -0.3
Justin Jarvis 118.0 7.7 4.9 1.4 12.0% 18.9% .289 83 5.10 121 0.5
J.C. Mejía 47.0 8.6 4.4 1.3 11.0% 21.5% .290 82 4.90 121 0.1
Justin Bullock 71.0 6.0 3.3 1.5 8.3% 15.0% .289 81 5.21 123 0.3
Gus Varland 57.7 8.1 5.0 1.4 12.3% 20.0% .287 80 5.30 125 -0.1
Harold Chirino 47.0 8.2 4.6 1.3 11.4% 20.4% .291 79 5.24 126 -0.4
Lucas Erceg 51.3 8.2 6.7 1.2 15.6% 19.3% .290 78 5.55 128 -0.3
TJ Shook 92.3 7.9 4.8 1.5 11.8% 19.4% .287 78 5.46 128 0.1
Zach Vennaro 43.7 8.7 5.6 1.4 13.4% 20.9% .295 77 5.51 130 -0.5
Rex Brothers 34.3 12.6 7.3 1.8 17.1% 29.3% .293 71 5.72 140 -0.4
Abner Uribe 28.7 10.7 8.8 1.6 19.2% 23.3% .286 69 6.19 145 -0.3

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Devin Williams Scott Williamson Francisco Rodríguez Tommy Kahnle 2.3 0.5 2.06 3.82
Brandon Woodruff Carlos Carrasco Stephen Strasburg Camilo Pascual 5.0 2.6 2.45 3.67
Corbin Burnes Gerrit Cole Don Drysdale Justin Verlander 5.8 2.9 2.43 3.67
Hoby Milner Caleb Thielbar Zach Duke Brett Cecil 1.1 0.0 2.86 4.54
Freddy Peralta Elmer Riddle Buzz Capra Tommy Greene 2.7 0.9 3.01 4.51
Jake Cousins Jim Duffalo Al Mamaux Bob Howry 0.9 -0.1 2.93 4.84
Luis Perdomo Alex Wilson Ryan Webb Dylan Floro 1.0 0.1 3.14 4.46
Jandel Gustave Danys Baez Braden Looper Luis Aponte 0.6 -0.1 3.20 4.74
Matt Bush Mike Bielecki Jeff Montgomery Mike Trombley 1.2 -0.1 3.15 4.84
Luke Barker Rod Beck Claude Raymond David Cortes 코르테스 0.6 -0.2 3.15 4.88
Peter Strzelecki Steve Blateric Jeremy Fikac Ben Taylor 0.8 -0.4 3.24 5.02
Aaron Ashby Tyler Alexander Glen Perkins Matt Riley 2.3 0.5 3.40 4.69
Eric Lauer Ed Brandt Tom Browning Jerry Reuss 2.8 1.0 3.51 4.61
Joel Payamps Jim Johnson Chris Reitsma Anthony Swarzak 스와잭 0.9 0.0 3.53 4.96
Trevor Kelley Steve Montgomery Edwin Moreno Willie Fraser 0.6 -0.4 3.50 5.13
Cam Robinson Dave Johnson Jeff Hirsch Phil Niekro 0.6 -0.4 3.63 5.02
Adrian Houser Andrew Cashner Ruben Gomez Dan Larson 1.9 0.5 3.82 4.92
Tyler Herb Brian Sweeney Travis Driskill Chris Nicolosi 2.0 0.6 3.71 4.86
Marcus Walden Jerry Reed Geoff Geary Dan Spillner 0.9 0.1 3.68 5.02
Robert Gasser Rich Rodas Chris Seddon 세든 Jarrod Washburn 2.3 0.5 3.75 4.95
Andy Otero Randy Marshall Vic Lombardi Matt Grott 1.1 0.1 3.76 5.04
Thomas Pannone Paul Kilgus Brian Duensing David Huff 허프 1.3 0.2 4.22 5.51
Miguel Sánchez Nguyen van Phuoc Lionel Hutz Troy McClure 0.4 -0.3 3.71 5.08
Collin Wiles John Butcher Erik Arnesen Nick Blackburn 1.9 0.5 3.93 4.88
Javy Guerra Neftali Feliz Ronald Belisario David Shafer 0.3 -0.5 3.86 5.16
Elvis Peguero Bob Kelly Steve Peck Greg Hansell 0.5 -0.3 3.80 5.14
Ethan Small Ted Bowsfield Monty Kennedy Zane Smith 1.6 0.1 3.92 5.20
Adam Seminaris Abe Alvarez Greg Conger Todd Douma 1.4 0.2 4.02 5.15
Dylan File Mark Ciardi Erik Arnesen Miguel Pinango 1.6 0.3 3.93 5.02
Ryan Middendorf Marv Rockman Robert Ganger Lino Rivera 0.3 -0.4 3.87 5.27
Janson Junk Bill Wengert Mike Dowless Rick Kirsten 1.4 0.1 3.89 5.24
Tyson Miller Scott Taylor William Brennan Jeremy Guthrie 1.5 0.2 3.97 5.15
Justin Yeager Greg Ferlenda Mark Parnell Roger Hambright 0.3 -0.6 3.93 5.39
Caleb Boushley Larry Luebbers Terry Doyle Gary Moran 1.5 0.3 4.09 5.12
Thomas Jankins Kelly Scott David Reyes Mike Ziegler 1.1 0.2 4.12 5.12
James Meeker Dennis Tafoya Mike Hinkle Tom Gilles 0.4 -0.4 4.02 5.30
Brandon Knarr Shawn Morimando Eric Jokisch 요키시 Sean West 1.7 0.0 4.11 5.26
Josh Lindblom Al Gettel Rick Rhoden Jim Hearn 1.3 -0.1 4.11 5.49
Trevor Rosenthal Archie Corbin Dick Radatz Dave Baldwin 0.2 -0.6 3.70 6.10
Matt Hardy J.R. Pickens Dale Mohorcic Jay Aldrich 0.4 -0.5 3.90 5.57
Victor Castaneda Enyel De Los Santos Juan Castillo Kyle McCulloch 1.3 -0.1 4.31 5.39
Luis Contreras Colton Reavis Fernando Cabrera Luis Perdomo 0.4 -0.5 3.96 5.51
Justin Topa Larry Hardy Cecil Upshaw Daryl Patterson 0.1 -0.4 4.15 5.90
Robbie Baker Steve Lankard Chris Allen Chad Blackwell 0.3 -0.5 4.16 5.59
Nick Bennett Steve Bast Nate Smith Daniel Rosenbaum 1.3 -0.1 4.29 5.35
Alec Bettinger Ivan Pineyro Andy Cruse Anthony Shew 1.0 -0.2 4.25 5.48
Tobias Myers Preston Larrison Wardell Starling Stolmy Pimentel 0.8 -0.2 4.81 5.83
Jason Alexander Casey Kelly 켈리 Jim Magrane 매그레인 Erv Palica 1.1 -0.1 4.40 5.41
Zack Brown Taylor Guerrieri Joe Henderson Kirk Killingsworth 0.6 -0.5 4.27 5.77
Hobie Harris Chad Harville Jonah Bayliss Charlie Sullivan 0.2 -0.7 4.09 5.84
Kent Hasler David Patton Adam Quintana Craig Molldrem 0.2 -0.8 4.15 5.83
Taylor Floyd Aaron Garrison Chuck Machemehl Evan Reed 0.0 -0.8 4.34 5.65
Justin Jarvis Keith Silver Chaz Roe Fred Klages 1.2 -0.3 4.52 5.60
J.C. Mejía Brad Schreiber Darin Gillies Dan Foli 0.5 -0.3 4.37 5.62
Justin Bullock John Jackson Edwin Moreno Michael Elwood 0.6 -0.2 4.63 5.65
Gus Varland Chad Rogers Mark Woodyard Eduardo Paulino 0.4 -0.6 4.53 5.82
Harold Chirino Frank Batista Dave Schoppee Andrew Wilson -0.1 -0.8 4.61 5.88
Lucas Erceg Randy McGilberry Hank Webb Brad Moore 0.2 -0.8 4.56 6.14
TJ Shook David Hale 헤일 Brett Smith Trevor Clifton 0.6 -0.7 4.82 5.98
Zach Vennaro David Carpenter Adam Carr Felix Villegas -0.1 -0.9 4.72 6.27
Rex Brothers Tim Fortugno Doug Creek Juan Perez 0.1 -1.0 4.23 8.60
Abner Uribe Randy Huber Lon Morton Mike Smith 0.0 -0.7 5.15 7.24

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

28 Comments
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Michaelmember
28 days ago

Looks like about a 90 win team. A healthy Peralta-maybe a couple more.

cowdisciplemember
27 days ago
Reply to  Michael

They just need that zing, zork, kapowza!

Spahn_and_Sain
16 days ago
Reply to  cowdisciple

Zing, Boom, Tarrarel.