2023 ZiPS Projections: Milwaukee Brewers

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Milwaukee Brewers.

Batters

The nice thing about the Brewers is that when you look at their depth chart, they’re not truly awful anywhere. That’s easier said than done; the worst Brewers generally project better than even the worst Astros or Dodgers. This is a very solidly built team that has a pretty high floor, probably higher than a year ago when we gathered for this exercise. What they’re missing on the offense is just a bit of pizzaz. I think we’re at the point where we have to accept that Christian Yelich is Just a Guy, which leaves the Brewers sorely missing a superstar bat. Everyone is at least OK and some are pretty good, but that big bat (or lack thereof) is what separates the Brewers from teams like the Dodgers, Astros, Braves, and maybe the Mets when we look at the upcoming preseason projections.

If you glance at the depth chart, you might think that it’s Garrett Mitchell who ZiPS is big on, but it’s actually Sal Frelick, who ZiPS sees as having more upside. ZiPS thinks his contact skills will play in the majors fairly quickly, his long-term upside in terms of batting average is quite high, and he has just enough power to make him really interesting. ZiPS isn’t quite as excited about Brice Turang, but does seem him as being at least a passable starter at second, though a downgrade from Kolten Wong.

I really have no idea what the Brewers think of Keston Hiura at this point. His strikeout numbers remain alarmingly high, but there’s a bright spot in that his contact stats actually took a significant step forward. Not so far as to lift him out of the abysmal category, but enough to get him out of a tier he was occupying all by himself. If the contact numbers hold, the strikeout rates should come down a bit. I find how Milwaukee uses Hiura to be really weird. His better overall results when making contact didn’t seem to make the Brewers any more interested in getting him playing time than they were when he was at his absolute worst. They use him like a guy they’re not big on, but they still keep him around.

Anyway, there may not be much to fall head-over-heels in love with here, but there’s not much to hate, either. The downgrade at second is probably cancelled out by the improvement from Andrew McCutchen to Jesse Winker ‘n’ Friends. The Brewers were sixth in the NL in runs scored in 2022 and I imagine they’ll be there again.

Pitchers

Now here is where we see the team’s star power. ZiPS is a big fan of the rotation, and though it doesn’t like Aaron Ashby as much as Steamer does, it compensates by liking Freddy Peralta more. As fifth starters go, Ashby ought to be one of, if not the best in baseball. Corbin Burnes, despite some less impressive stretches in 2022, will still places very high in the ZiPS WAR rankings (first at the moment) by virtue of the fact that a lot of the competition has age or injury issues.

Looking only at the pitchers on the 18 teams run so far, the Brewers also have the fourth-best starter in Brandon Woodruff. He’s now been mostly healthy for three years — the 2022 injury was a sprained ankle rather than some darker story involving an elbow or shoulder — and together with Burnes, makes for one of the best one-two punches around. That makes the Brewers a very dangerous team come playoff time, and the roster overall is strong enough that they have very good chances of participating in said playoffs. Having Adrian Houser in reserve is pretty nice.

The future does worry ZiPS a bit. The computer likes Robert Gasser, but is generally unsure if the Brewers will get much long-term rotation reinforcement from their current slate of prospects. Peralta and Ashby are locked up, but Burnes, Woodruff, and Eric Lauer all hit free agency after 2024, and that kind of talent is hard to replace. But to paraphrase Mitch Hedberg, the later might suck, but the beginning and middle will be amazing.

The bullpen doesn’t get the lofty projections it did in past years, mainly because of the lack of Josh Hader. But there are still a lot of pitchers ZiPS really likes in Milwaukee’s ‘pen, and some of the more ordinary overall projection here is due to a couple of pitchers ZiPS really isn’t a fan of, namely Javy Guerra and Justin Topa. Devin Williams is terrific, and the computer likes a lot of the other hurlers who will feature in high-leverage situations, like Hoby Milner, Matt Bush, Peter Strzelecki, and Jake Cousins.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.