2023 ZiPS Projections: Toronto Blue Jays

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and today’s team is the Toronto Blue Jays.

Batters

When you look at Toronto’s lineup, there isn’t much to complain about. ZiPS disagrees with Steamer on some of the individual players, but the overs and unders are pretty even, meaning that ZiPS thinks this will be as potent a run-scoring squad as Steamer does. Among the most notable projections? Many of the worries ZiPS had about Matt Chapman were resolved in 2022, while my system is a bit concerned about Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s output after his Statcast data dropped back down to its 2020 levels. It’s still the projection of an All-Star first baseman, but it’s distinctly behind last year’s and certainly well off 2021’s elite performance.

Still, there are a couple of things to gripe about. Slowly transitioning George Springer to right field is a good idea given his age, and with Kevin Kiermaier signed, they’re at least moving him for an excellent defensive center fielder. Kiermaier has his own injury concerns, but there’s nothing keeping Springer from getting plenty of time in center as the Plan B. I think Springer is moving because the Jays have an option and the team is considering his health, as he’s actually held up very well defensively out there. But left field still projects as a “meh” position. ZiPS has never been a Gurriel fan, and the system agrees with Statcast that his 2022 batting average was a bit inflated; the loss of power is also very concerning. I’d love to see the Jays take a stab at a better option here, though players have been coming off the board quickly.

This might be heresy, but I think the Jays are nearing the point where they either need to commit to Gabriel Moreno as the starting catcher, with Alejandro Kirk as the mostly-DH who catches 45 games a year, or explore trading Moreno for another need, whether it’s another bat in the outfield or a starting pitcher. Now, they shouldn’t trade him just to trade him, but the Blue Jays can win now. A little “Après moi, le déluge” would be welcome here instead of just hanging onto Moreno indefinitely as the future option. Only Dippin’ Dots gets away with a future that never seems to come.

I’d also like the Jays to figure out their second base/utility situation. Increasingly, I wonder whether Whit Merrifield being on the 2023 roster even makes much sense; I’d rather have Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio, or Addison Barger starting at second. And the Jays have plenty of utility options. Not including Orelvis Martinez, who has real upside, Toronto has a billion one-WAR infielders in the minors, like they obtained a slightly blemished mold from the Joey Wendle factory.

Pitchers

There’s another big ZiPS/Steamer disagreement at the top of the rotation, as Steamer is lukewarm on Manoah and ZiPS is all-in. Among pitchers with 100 projected innings who are likely to be on a major league roster, Manoah is the third-largest ZiPS/Steamer ERA disagreement among the teams I’ve run (3.43/4.11). Incidentally, the others are Patrick Corbin (5.11/4.38) and Stephen Strasburg (3.74/4.50). In fifth place, going in the other direction, is Yusei Kikuchi (4.49/3.93). I appreciate ZiPS showing some personal loyalty to me; I’m going to carry that Kikuchi breakout pick before 2022 all the way to my grave!

Even if you subscribe to ZiPS’ more optimistic Manoah projection, it still feels like the Jays need another starter. Yes, a José Berríos bounce-back season could be in the works, but can you really bank on that? If you pick up another good starting pitcher and Berríos is awesome, it’s not like your team is going to suffer from too much awesomeness, a plague that has hurt exactly zero teams ever. But if Berríos repeats 2022 and you don’t get a boost from somewhere else, you may end up scrambling for pitching all year. ZiPS is a fan of Ricky Tiedemann — a really big fan — but he’s certainly a risk. He has just 18 professional starts and isn’t stretched out to throw more than four-inning specials. If the Yankees are really in on Carlos Rodón, the Blue Jays should be willing to beat nearly any non-crazy offer they make!

The bullpen has a solid if unspectacular projection, and they almost can’t help but have better health as a group than they did in 2022. Another depth piece would be helpful, maybe another lefty, though ZiPS gives a pretty good projection to Matt Gage. I know everyone always thinks they need more relief pitching, but I think one more bat and a starting pitcher are the priorities over more relief help.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Matt Chapman R 30 3B 614 530 85 125 26 2 30 85 70 171 2 2
George Springer R 33 CF 522 458 80 120 21 3 26 78 53 100 9 2
Bo Bichette R 25 SS 666 618 97 173 37 1 26 100 42 139 16 6
Alejandro Kirk R 24 C 489 427 52 114 23 0 15 65 54 57 0 1
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. R 24 1B 654 582 93 165 30 1 34 106 65 103 6 2
Santiago Espinal R 28 2B 451 413 48 111 22 1 7 47 33 66 6 5
Danny Jansen R 28 C 299 264 40 62 13 0 14 47 28 58 1 1
Addison Barger L 23 3B 517 475 62 116 25 1 20 85 33 129 4 3
Davis Schneider R 24 2B 402 356 46 79 18 2 13 55 39 116 5 1
Cavan Biggio L 28 2B 421 356 56 80 20 1 10 42 58 110 6 1
Kevin Kiermaier L 33 CF 337 309 41 71 14 4 7 39 24 84 10 3
Orelvis Martinez R 21 SS 500 458 53 100 21 1 24 85 31 160 3 2
Gabriel Moreno R 23 C 322 294 38 77 14 1 7 46 21 55 3 1
Damiano Palmegiani R 23 3B 486 433 62 99 23 1 19 85 36 129 2 1
Whit Merrifield R 34 2B 583 537 75 135 28 2 12 65 36 95 19 5
Spencer Horwitz L 25 1B 475 421 56 102 26 1 10 60 47 95 3 2
Samad Taylor R 24 2B 345 308 45 71 14 2 10 48 29 98 16 5
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. R 29 LF 496 457 57 123 29 1 14 69 30 92 3 4
Leo Jimenez R 22 SS 293 249 38 56 11 2 4 56 24 66 3 2
Tanner Morris L 25 3B 393 345 41 79 13 1 5 43 41 86 1 2
Vinny Capra R 26 SS 322 291 37 71 15 2 6 40 24 71 4 2
Otto Lopez R 24 2B 486 443 56 112 20 4 4 56 33 89 11 6
John Aiello B 26 1B 345 309 34 72 16 2 8 54 25 94 2 3
Rafael Lantigua R 25 2B 486 447 56 103 24 2 7 53 34 112 9 7
Nathan Lukes L 28 CF 420 383 45 95 22 1 6 53 28 81 8 2
Josh Kasevich R 22 SS 126 116 15 29 8 0 0 14 7 12 0 1
Alan Roden L 23 RF 114 97 14 23 4 0 1 16 11 17 2 1
Chavez Young B 25 CF 343 310 38 66 10 2 6 38 27 97 13 3
Zac Cook L 25 CF 376 329 47 62 16 1 11 77 21 157 7 3
Zach Britton L 24 C 318 275 37 55 15 2 7 48 33 111 3 1
Cade Doughty R 22 2B 125 113 17 26 5 0 5 25 7 37 1 1
Nick Podkul R 26 1B 266 233 25 46 9 1 5 31 26 76 3 1
Steward Berroa B 24 CF 327 295 42 59 10 4 6 34 28 103 22 5
Raimel Tapia L 29 LF 458 429 52 111 21 3 7 49 24 83 11 3
Stevie Berman R 28 C 234 203 19 42 11 0 5 31 23 62 1 1
Jackie Bradley Jr. L 33 RF 405 367 39 72 18 1 8 41 29 104 4 3
Bradley Zimmer L 30 CF 308 268 40 52 9 1 6 30 23 111 12 4
Michael Turconi L 24 SS 108 94 12 22 2 0 1 13 11 18 1 1
Adrian Pinto R 20 SS 213 187 34 43 8 3 2 30 17 38 10 4
Yoshi Tsutsugo L 31 1B 357 309 36 68 13 1 11 38 42 98 0 1
LJ Talley L 26 1B 406 372 38 81 14 2 8 47 28 95 5 1
Logan Warmoth R 27 RF 397 353 42 72 16 2 6 48 34 135 10 4
Eric Stamets R 31 SS 258 234 25 43 8 2 4 28 18 84 5 1
Cam Eden R 25 CF 334 304 33 61 12 1 7 44 22 118 16 3
Luis De Los Santos루이스 R 25 SS 444 416 43 91 20 2 8 51 20 116 3 3
Riley Tirotta R 24 3B 277 251 27 50 10 2 5 31 22 101 5 3
Robert Robertis L 20 LF 158 149 18 34 6 2 2 16 7 41 2 1
Phil Clarke L 25 C 325 290 34 65 12 0 4 39 26 59 1 1
Gabriel Martinez R 20 LF 373 346 42 85 18 0 9 50 22 76 2 1
Cullen Large B 27 RF 470 423 43 92 21 3 6 54 37 137 3 2
Glenn Santiago R 22 LF 198 183 21 38 7 1 3 21 11 57 2 2
Dasan Brown R 21 CF 351 318 45 64 13 1 5 54 20 122 11 6
Alex De Jesus R 21 3B 507 458 53 92 19 1 11 61 46 186 1 1
Tyler Keenan L 24 3B 219 197 15 35 11 0 3 25 16 85 0 1
Rainer Nunez R 22 1B 474 449 49 107 20 1 14 66 19 124 0 1
PK Morris L 24 1B 387 346 34 66 14 1 9 47 35 135 1 1
Miguel Hiraldo R 22 2B 452 424 46 89 20 3 8 50 23 134 14 4
Garrett Spain L 22 RF 330 300 32 59 10 2 5 36 25 107 4 3
Hugo Cardona R 23 SS 207 187 21 32 7 1 2 22 14 87 11 4
Chris Bec R 27 C 171 153 14 28 4 0 1 12 17 49 5 2
Will Robertson L 25 LF 337 310 35 62 15 1 9 47 20 112 1 2
Karl Ellison R 28 C 169 157 8 21 7 2 2 12 11 74 0 1
Andres Sosa R 25 C 267 221 31 45 16 1 4 48 28 75 2 1
Kekai Rios R 26 C 233 213 18 42 8 0 3 23 16 74 0 1
Estiven Machado B 20 SS 399 372 34 75 16 2 1 37 25 122 3 2
Trevor Schwecke R 25 1B 360 330 34 65 13 2 6 43 24 122 2 4
Kellin Deglan L 31 C 162 148 13 29 6 0 3 20 10 57 1 1

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Matt Chapman 614 .236 .331 .462 118 .226 .289 10 4.3 .341
George Springer 522 .262 .345 .491 130 .229 .283 5 4.2 .357
Bo Bichette 666 .280 .327 .469 119 .189 .325 -4 3.9 .341
Alejandro Kirk 489 .267 .352 .426 116 .159 .279 6 3.7 .339
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 654 .284 .359 .514 140 .230 .294 -5 3.5 .371
Santiago Espinal 451 .269 .324 .378 96 .109 .306 8 2.0 .307
Danny Jansen 299 .235 .315 .443 109 .208 .250 3 1.9 .326
Addison Barger 517 .244 .300 .427 100 .183 .294 3 1.8 .312
Davis Schneider 402 .222 .303 .393 93 .171 .291 5 1.6 .304
Cavan Biggio 421 .225 .338 .371 98 .146 .297 0 1.6 .315
Kevin Kiermaier 337 .230 .291 .369 83 .139 .294 11 1.6 .287
Orelvis Martinez 500 .218 .280 .426 93 .207 .277 -2 1.4 .303
Gabriel Moreno 322 .262 .320 .388 97 .126 .302 2 1.5 .310
Damiano Palmegiani 486 .229 .305 .418 99 .189 .281 -4 1.2 .313
Whit Merrifield 583 .251 .298 .378 87 .127 .286 -1 1.0 .293
Spencer Horwitz 475 .242 .322 .380 95 .138 .291 4 0.8 .309
Samad Taylor 345 .231 .304 .386 91 .156 .305 -1 0.8 .301
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 496 .269 .319 .429 106 .160 .311 -3 0.8 .322
Leo Jimenez 293 .225 .331 .333 87 .108 .291 -1 0.7 .301
Tanner Morris 393 .229 .319 .316 79 .087 .291 3 0.7 .287
Vinny Capra 322 .244 .308 .371 89 .127 .304 -2 0.7 .298
Otto Lopez 486 .253 .309 .343 82 .090 .309 0 0.5 .287
John Aiello 345 .233 .310 .375 90 .142 .309 4 0.4 .302
Rafael Lantigua 486 .230 .288 .340 75 .110 .293 4 0.4 .277
Nathan Lukes 420 .248 .305 .358 85 .110 .301 -3 0.4 .291
Josh Kasevich 126 .250 .302 .319 74 .069 .279 2 0.3 .276
Alan Roden 114 .237 .333 .309 82 .072 .278 3 0.3 .289
Chavez Young 343 .213 .283 .316 67 .103 .290 3 0.2 .267
Zac Cook 376 .188 .283 .343 74 .155 .317 0 0.2 .279
Zach Britton 318 .200 .305 .345 82 .145 .306 -7 0.1 .291
Cade Doughty 125 .230 .304 .407 96 .177 .296 -3 0.0 .311
Nick Podkul 266 .197 .291 .309 68 .112 .270 6 0.0 .271
Steward Berroa 327 .200 .273 .322 66 .122 .285 0 0.0 .264
Raimel Tapia 458 .259 .298 .371 86 .112 .307 0 0.0 .290
Stevie Berman 234 .207 .300 .335 77 .128 .272 -5 -0.1 .284
Jackie Bradley Jr. 405 .196 .265 .316 62 .120 .251 11 -0.1 .257
Bradley Zimmer 308 .194 .290 .302 66 .108 .305 -1 -0.1 .269
Michael Turconi 108 .234 .324 .287 73 .053 .280 -3 -0.1 .280
Adrian Pinto 213 .230 .316 .337 83 .107 .279 -7 -0.2 .292
Yoshi Tsutsugo 357 .220 .311 .375 89 .155 .285 0 0.1 .301
LJ Talley 406 .218 .276 .331 69 .113 .271 8 -0.2 .267
Logan Warmoth 397 .204 .285 .312 67 .108 .311 5 -0.2 .268
Eric Stamets 258 .184 .253 .286 50 .103 .267 2 -0.3 .241
Cam Eden 334 .201 .266 .316 62 .115 .302 -1 -0.3 .258
Luis De Los Santos 444 .219 .261 .334 65 .115 .284 -1 -0.4 .260
Riley Tirotta 277 .199 .271 .315 63 .116 .310 0 -0.4 .259
Robert Robertis 158 .228 .266 .336 67 .107 .302 -1 -0.5 .262
Phil Clarke 325 .224 .302 .307 71 .083 .269 -9 -0.6 .274
Gabriel Martinez 373 .246 .295 .376 86 .130 .291 -5 -0.6 .292
Cullen Large 470 .217 .289 .324 71 .106 .307 2 -0.7 .272
Glenn Santiago 198 .208 .258 .306 57 .098 .285 0 -0.8 .248
Dasan Brown 351 .201 .274 .296 60 .094 .309 -3 -0.8 .257
Alex De Jesus 507 .201 .274 .319 65 .118 .310 -3 -0.8 .264
Tyler Keenan 219 .178 .247 .279 47 .102 .294 -1 -0.8 .235
Rainer Nunez 474 .238 .272 .381 80 .143 .299 -1 -0.8 .281
PK Morris 387 .191 .269 .315 63 .124 .282 4 -0.9 .259
Miguel Hiraldo 452 .210 .252 .328 60 .118 .287 -3 -0.9 .253
Garrett Spain 330 .197 .267 .293 57 .097 .287 2 -0.9 .251
Hugo Cardona 207 .171 .243 .251 39 .080 .306 -4 -1.0 .225
Chris Bec 171 .183 .269 .229 42 .046 .262 -7 -1.1 .232
Will Robertson 337 .200 .261 .342 67 .142 .280 -2 -1.1 .265
Karl Ellison 169 .134 .190 .242 20 .108 .235 -1 -1.1 .192
Andres Sosa 267 .204 .327 .339 87 .136 .289 -21 -1.3 .301
Kekai Rios 233 .197 .262 .277 51 .080 .287 -9 -1.3 .243
Estiven Machado 399 .202 .256 .263 46 .062 .297 -3 -1.4 .233
Trevor Schwecke 360 .197 .258 .303 56 .106 .292 -1 -1.7 .249
Kellin Deglan 162 .196 .259 .297 55 .101 .295 -15 -1.7 .248

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Matt Chapman Mike Schmidt Troy Glaus Darrell Evans
George Springer Carlos Beltrán Harry Hooper Billy Southworth
Bo Bichette Hanley Ramirez Freddie Lindstrom Asdrúbal Cabrera
Alejandro Kirk Mike Scioscia John Stearns Joe Mauer
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Eddie Murray Rusty Staub Albert Pujols
Santiago Espinal Todd Haney Lenny Harris Marty Barrett
Danny Jansen John Wockenfuss Ed Kirkpatrick Curt Blefary
Addison Barger Don Money Jedd Gyorko Carney Lansford
Davis Schneider Pat Tabler Billy Consolo Doug DeCinces
Cavan Biggio Colin Walsh Lance Blankenship Max Muncy
Kevin Kiermaier Eric Bullock Ed Stroud Bubba Morton
Orelvis Martinez Mark Reynolds Joe Lis Tommy Murray
Gabriel Moreno Russ Nixon Joe Mauer Mickey O’Neil
Damiano Palmegiani Von McDaniel Ed Sprague Luis Iglesias
Whit Merrifield Luis Aparicio Steve Sax Horace Clarke
Spencer Horwitz Jim Frey Conor Jackson Rob Ryan
Samad Taylor Antonio Perez Brett Auerbach Darnell Sweeney
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Austin Dean Bob Kennedy Walt Williams
Leo Jimenez Mitchell Tolman Jake Thrower Matt Hunt
Tanner Morris Scott Campbell Rich Paz Kevin Riggs
Vinny Capra Lou Collier 클리어 Tzu-Wei Lin Mike Baxes
Otto Lopez Roy Clark Alejandro Machado Blake Schmit
John Aiello Herbert Perry Josh Workman Adam Brown
Rafael Lantigua Andy Stankiewicz Mike Buskey Andy Burns 번즈
Nathan Lukes Steve Hovley Devan Ahart Rocky Coyle
Josh Kasevich Gabriel Santana Sergio Guerrero Edgar Caceres 캐세레스
Alan Roden Douglas McCracken Junior Ruiz Ray Shoup
Chavez Young Todd Donovan William Ray Candy Harris
Zac Cook Andrew Dyes Wayne Redmond Quinn Stewart
Zach Britton Trey Ford Danny Goodwin Greg Kobza
Cade Doughty Ted Lepcio Doug DeCinces Enmanuel Paulino
Nick Podkul Joe Cronin Joseph Lorenz Freddie Hailey
Steward Berroa Josh Flores Brian Seever Julio Martinez
Raimel Tapia Russ Snyder Endy Chavez Josh Anderson
Stevie Berman Griff Erickson Gary Allenson Vinny DiFazio
Jackie Bradley Jr. James Murphy Jackie Bradley Stephen Cardullo
Bradley Zimmer Chris Powell Sebastien Boucher Glen Barker
Michael Turconi Charles Garrett Li Ning Alden Carrithers
Adrian Pinto Chris Burke Otto Lopez Jemel Spearman
Yoshi Tsutsugo Joe Lutz Pat Dodson Matt Skole
LJ Talley Erich Weiss Danny Diekroeger Austin Davidson
Logan Warmoth Rich Barnwell Doug Carpenter Dan Carroll
Eric Stamets Donald Alfano Al Weis Frank Kremblas
Cam Eden Mike Conner Nino Spatafore Ted Taylor
Luis De Los Santos Jeff Bannon Victor Rosario Mike Tyson
Riley Tirotta Kevin Connacher Kris Goodman Dale Soderholm
Robert Robertis Matt Sheely Alex Hernandez Daryl Rutherford
Phil Clarke Todd Takayoshi Jeff Reed Orlando Mercado
Gabriel Martinez Roger Williams Brian Horwitz Richard Wissel
Cullen Large Jaycob Brugman Jameson Fisher Johan Limonta
Glenn Santiago Ronald Castillo Daryl Rutherford Hunter Jones
Dasan Brown Sam Houston Bubba Thompson Morris Nettles
Alex De Jesus Jim Bishop Tim Norrid Drew Ward
Tyler Keenan Elijah Trail Greg McClain Montrell Marshall
Rainer Nunez Dave Hall Kendrys Morales Ken Kraynak
PK Morris Todd Mensik Matt Rizzotti Jason Layne
Miguel Hiraldo Tony Thomas Pedro Santana Wayne Busby
Garrett Spain Luis Zambrana Matt Hobbie Frank Baldanza
Hugo Cardona Frank Taveras Henry Encarnacion Hector Tiburcio
Chris Bec Mike Napoli Dennis Pelfrey Kole Zimmerman
Will Robertson Fred Carter A.J. Leday Dave Vetsch
Karl Ellison Jorge Meran Ryan Budde Tom Gregorio
Andres Sosa David Rolls Pete Gonzalez Duane Gustavson
Kekai Rios Tim Redman J.C. Boscan Eric Sim
Estiven Machado Adrian Marin Matt Tuiasosopo Scott Sizemore
Trevor Schwecke Cito Culver Ramon Jimenez Chris Emanuele
Kellin Deglan Tim Edge Joe Siddall Don Bryant

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Matt Chapman .262 .353 .523 139 5.8 .214 .307 .409 98 2.9
George Springer .286 .368 .545 150 5.4 .242 .319 .431 110 2.9
Bo Bichette .307 .356 .526 141 5.7 .254 .302 .416 99 2.2
Alejandro Kirk .292 .381 .480 137 4.9 .239 .324 .378 97 2.5
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. .314 .390 .573 163 5.5 .258 .332 .453 117 1.7
Santiago Espinal .295 .350 .416 112 2.9 .245 .301 .339 80 1.1
Danny Jansen .260 .343 .506 130 2.7 .210 .290 .389 89 1.2
Addison Barger .268 .326 .486 122 3.2 .221 .274 .373 81 0.5
Davis Schneider .246 .327 .447 112 2.5 .196 .279 .338 71 0.4
Cavan Biggio .250 .366 .423 117 2.5 .196 .308 .321 76 0.5
Kevin Kiermaier .258 .317 .421 103 2.4 .204 .260 .318 64 0.8
Orelvis Martinez .247 .313 .490 117 2.9 .191 .252 .373 72 0.1
Gabriel Moreno .292 .350 .432 116 2.3 .234 .291 .340 76 0.6
Damiano Palmegiani .254 .332 .476 119 2.4 .203 .282 .374 81 0.1
Whit Merrifield .275 .324 .419 103 2.2 .225 .275 .335 69 -0.4
Spencer Horwitz .268 .348 .428 113 1.8 .216 .296 .334 76 -0.3
Samad Taylor .252 .327 .433 109 1.6 .205 .279 .337 72 0.1
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. .296 .348 .479 127 2.1 .243 .293 .382 88 -0.4
Leo Jimenez .249 .356 .374 103 1.3 .200 .307 .293 71 0.2
Tanner Morris .253 .346 .353 93 1.4 .203 .291 .277 59 -0.2
Vinny Capra .265 .331 .415 106 1.3 .219 .282 .328 71 0.0
Otto Lopez .278 .338 .383 100 1.6 .227 .286 .303 67 -0.5
John Aiello .258 .335 .424 111 1.3 .205 .284 .328 73 -0.3
Rafael Lantigua .252 .311 .377 89 1.4 .206 .264 .307 60 -0.5
Nathan Lukes .278 .333 .403 103 1.3 .226 .280 .315 67 -0.6
Josh Kasevich .286 .335 .370 97 0.6 .219 .270 .277 54 0.0
Alan Roden .273 .368 .354 104 0.6 .207 .307 .270 66 0.0
Chavez Young .240 .308 .361 83 0.9 .185 .257 .277 50 -0.5
Zac Cook .218 .309 .395 93 1.1 .161 .260 .289 53 -0.7
Zach Britton .223 .331 .404 103 0.9 .170 .275 .294 61 -0.7
Cade Doughty .259 .332 .474 120 0.4 .204 .281 .357 75 -0.3
Nick Podkul .224 .320 .359 87 0.7 .169 .263 .267 51 -0.5
Steward Berroa .226 .300 .377 87 0.8 .171 .244 .282 48 -0.8
Raimel Tapia .290 .326 .414 107 1.2 .236 .271 .326 68 -1.1
Stevie Berman .236 .330 .389 99 0.6 .179 .268 .287 57 -0.6
Jackie Bradley Jr. .224 .295 .369 83 1.0 .171 .241 .271 44 -1.0
Bradley Zimmer .224 .322 .357 88 0.7 .170 .266 .260 49 -0.8
Michael Turconi .261 .351 .314 88 0.1 .206 .297 .254 57 -0.4
Adrian Pinto .265 .347 .395 104 0.4 .204 .288 .287 62 -0.7
Yoshi Tsutsugo .243 .340 .424 107 1.0 .190 .280 .320 66 -0.9
LJ Talley .247 .304 .386 90 0.9 .192 .249 .286 52 -1.0
Logan Warmoth .233 .311 .360 86 0.7 .176 .257 .268 48 -1.2
Eric Stamets .213 .283 .343 72 0.4 .154 .223 .239 30 -0.9
Cam Eden .228 .293 .367 81 0.6 .174 .242 .278 45 -1.1
Luis De Los Santos .245 .284 .374 83 0.6 .195 .237 .290 47 -1.4
Riley Tirotta .227 .296 .368 84 0.3 .176 .244 .271 45 -1.0
Robert Robertis .254 .295 .383 87 -0.1 .205 .241 .296 51 -0.8
Phil Clarke .254 .332 .351 91 0.2 .192 .272 .263 54 -1.3
Gabriel Martinez .271 .318 .423 104 0.3 .219 .270 .333 68 -1.5
Cullen Large .242 .314 .363 90 0.3 .189 .258 .281 53 -1.7
Glenn Santiago .237 .291 .361 80 -0.2 .183 .230 .263 40 -1.2
Dasan Brown .224 .298 .342 78 0.0 .174 .248 .257 42 -1.5
Alex De Jesus .227 .301 .369 84 0.3 .177 .248 .275 48 -2.0
Tyler Keenan .203 .270 .323 64 -0.4 .150 .222 .235 28 -1.3
Rainer Nunez .259 .294 .426 96 0.2 .212 .246 .330 59 -2.0
PK Morris .215 .294 .366 81 0.0 .167 .245 .274 47 -1.7
Miguel Hiraldo .233 .276 .366 76 -0.1 .186 .229 .285 43 -2.0
Garrett Spain .224 .296 .338 76 -0.1 .170 .240 .244 38 -1.7
Hugo Cardona .198 .275 .293 58 -0.5 .143 .217 .207 19 -1.5
Chris Bec .215 .307 .272 63 -0.6 .153 .237 .192 23 -1.5
Will Robertson .229 .293 .394 88 -0.2 .175 .235 .292 47 -1.9
Karl Ellison .165 .226 .312 48 -0.5 .111 .164 .197 2 -1.5
Andres Sosa .231 .356 .394 108 -0.6 .172 .300 .285 65 -2.0
Kekai Rios .227 .294 .319 71 -0.7 .169 .234 .236 33 -1.8
Estiven Machado .225 .284 .299 62 -0.5 .179 .231 .230 31 -2.1
Trevor Schwecke .222 .283 .347 74 -0.8 .175 .234 .265 40 -2.3
Kellin Deglan .227 .291 .351 78 -1.2 .171 .229 .252 37 -2.1

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Alek Manoah R 25 13 8 3.43 30 30 181.0 142 69 20 51 177
Tim Mayza L 31 5 3 3.62 63 1 49.7 43 20 5 16 46
Jordan Romano R 30 5 3 3.64 58 0 59.3 48 24 8 21 70
Kevin Gausman R 32 12 7 3.66 29 28 162.3 152 66 22 33 184
Anthony Bass R 35 4 3 3.68 62 0 58.7 50 24 8 20 59
Erik Swanson R 29 3 2 3.76 48 4 55.0 47 23 8 16 62
Adam Cimber R 32 7 5 3.80 69 0 64.0 62 27 7 14 48
Matt Gage L 30 3 2 3.86 50 0 51.3 46 22 6 19 51
Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 L 36 9 6 3.93 21 21 116.7 119 51 17 25 93
Brandon Eisert L 25 4 3 4.01 41 3 60.7 56 27 8 19 62
Yimi Garcia R 32 5 4 4.04 57 0 55.7 47 25 8 17 54
Ricky Tiedemann L 20 7 5 4.12 24 24 94.0 79 43 11 41 103
Adrian Hernandez R 23 3 3 4.13 41 1 52.3 43 24 7 27 62
Ryan Boyer R 26 2 1 4.22 27 0 32.0 29 15 5 10 35
David Phelps R 36 1 1 4.22 52 1 49.0 45 23 5 25 47
Zach Pop R 26 2 2 4.23 55 0 61.7 60 29 7 20 51
Julian Merryweather R 31 3 2 4.24 33 2 34.0 33 16 5 11 34
Hayden Juenger R 22 6 5 4.25 40 20 89.0 80 42 12 37 87
Ross Stripling R 33 7 6 4.25 29 22 114.3 114 54 19 26 97
Trevor Richards R 30 5 4 4.31 50 7 77.3 66 37 13 33 89
Foster Griffin L 27 4 3 4.34 32 10 74.7 72 36 8 30 63
José Berríos R 29 9 9 4.38 29 29 166.3 162 81 26 41 152
Nate Pearson R 26 4 4 4.41 25 14 65.3 57 32 11 29 75
Trent Thornton R 29 4 4 4.41 43 7 85.7 83 42 13 33 78
Jackson Rees R 28 2 2 4.42 30 1 38.7 37 19 7 14 43
Casey Lawrence R 35 7 6 4.46 26 20 111.0 118 55 18 21 82
Jimmy Burnette L 24 6 6 4.47 38 0 50.3 41 25 6 30 61
Mitch White R 28 4 4 4.48 26 17 96.3 96 48 12 31 82
Yusei Kikuchi L 32 7 6 4.49 27 21 110.3 106 55 18 48 113
Tayler Saucedo L 30 2 2 4.57 31 3 45.3 43 23 6 20 42
Sean Rackoski R 28 3 3 4.65 33 0 40.7 42 21 5 16 30
Eric Yardley R 32 2 2 4.70 40 0 44.0 46 23 5 17 29
Nick Fraze R 25 3 4 4.77 16 13 66.0 68 35 10 16 48
Bowden Francis R 27 7 8 4.84 29 21 102.3 100 55 18 39 96
Sem Robberse R 21 5 7 4.86 23 22 103.7 110 56 15 40 71
Sean Mellen L 25 2 3 4.88 32 4 55.3 54 30 9 28 52
Matt Peacock R 29 5 5 4.90 31 7 68.0 77 37 11 24 42
Anthony Kay L 28 4 5 4.93 19 14 69.3 68 38 11 35 65
Braden Scott L 25 3 5 4.94 33 0 58.3 53 32 9 32 61
Trent Palmer R 24 3 4 4.94 18 18 71.0 66 39 10 35 67
Thomas Hatch R 28 6 7 4.98 24 20 108.3 113 60 18 35 85
Hagen Danner R 24 1 2 5.05 27 0 35.7 35 20 5 17 28
Yosver Zulueta R 25 3 4 5.05 22 13 57.0 50 32 9 28 59
Jimmy Robbins L 25 2 3 5.12 19 13 65.0 63 37 11 28 63
Paxton Schultz R 25 5 7 5.14 22 18 89.3 95 51 15 40 71
Nick Allgeyer L 27 5 6 5.16 27 15 90.7 95 52 16 39 70
Kyle Johnston R 26 4 5 5.19 38 7 69.3 73 40 11 34 54
Parker Caracci R 26 2 4 5.19 38 0 43.3 43 25 6 25 37
Alejandro Melean R 22 4 5 5.20 21 14 72.7 77 42 12 33 56
Luis Quinones R 25 4 4 5.21 18 15 65.7 58 38 10 43 70
Joey Murray R 26 5 6 5.25 18 17 82.3 82 48 17 37 80
Andrew Bash R 26 6 7 5.25 28 5 73.7 79 43 11 32 47
Adam Kloffenstein R 22 4 6 5.33 24 23 103.0 106 61 15 56 83
Mike Ellenbest R 28 2 3 5.35 25 3 35.3 37 21 6 19 29
Graham Spraker R 28 3 5 5.55 28 6 58.3 60 36 12 30 53
Brody Rodning L 27 2 3 5.60 22 0 27.3 27 17 5 16 25
Marcus Reyes L 28 2 3 5.60 28 1 45.0 50 28 8 22 31
Sergio Romo R 40 1 1 5.61 39 0 33.7 36 21 8 12 31
Gabriel Ponce R 24 2 4 5.76 33 1 50.0 49 32 9 31 47
Thomas Ruwe R 27 1 2 5.76 26 0 29.7 28 19 5 28 33
Derek Holland L 36 1 2 5.85 29 4 40.0 43 26 9 20 36
Fitz Stadler R 26 2 4 6.20 21 6 49.3 54 34 11 31 44
Jol Concepcion R 24 3 5 6.56 30 3 48.0 49 35 9 42 41

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Alek Manoah 181.0 8.8 2.5 1.0 7.0% 24.3% .256 124 3.83 80 3.9
Tim Mayza 49.7 8.3 2.9 0.9 7.8% 22.3% .277 118 3.70 85 0.7
Jordan Romano 59.3 10.6 3.2 1.2 8.6% 28.7% .278 117 3.81 85 0.8
Kevin Gausman 162.3 10.2 1.8 1.2 5.0% 27.6% .307 117 3.31 86 3.0
Anthony Bass 58.7 9.1 3.1 1.2 8.2% 24.2% .271 116 3.99 86 0.7
Erik Swanson 55.0 10.1 2.6 1.3 7.1% 27.6% .283 113 3.72 88 0.7
Adam Cimber 64.0 6.8 2.0 1.0 5.3% 18.2% .284 112 4.01 89 0.6
Matt Gage 51.3 8.9 3.3 1.1 8.7% 23.4% .288 111 3.91 90 0.4
Hyun Jin Ryu 116.7 7.2 1.9 1.3 5.1% 19.1% .291 108 4.15 92 1.8
Brandon Eisert 60.7 9.2 2.8 1.2 7.5% 24.3% .293 107 3.86 94 0.6
Yimi Garcia 55.7 8.7 2.7 1.3 7.5% 23.7% .264 106 4.16 95 0.4
Ricky Tiedemann 94.0 9.9 3.9 1.1 10.3% 25.8% .282 104 4.11 97 1.3
Adrian Hernandez 52.3 10.7 4.6 1.2 11.8% 27.1% .281 103 4.24 97 0.3
Ryan Boyer 32.0 9.8 2.8 1.4 7.2% 25.2% .289 101 4.12 99 0.2
David Phelps 49.0 8.6 4.6 0.9 11.5% 21.7% .292 101 4.28 99 0.2
Zach Pop 61.7 7.4 2.9 1.0 7.6% 19.5% .291 101 4.29 99 0.2
Julian Merryweather 34.0 9.0 2.9 1.3 7.5% 23.3% .298 101 4.21 99 0.2
Hayden Juenger 89.0 8.8 3.7 1.2 9.7% 22.8% .281 100 4.30 100 1.1
Ross Stripling 114.3 7.6 2.0 1.5 5.5% 20.4% .285 100 4.35 100 1.5
Trevor Richards 77.3 10.4 3.8 1.5 10.0% 27.0% .277 99 4.39 101 0.5
Foster Griffin 74.7 7.6 3.6 1.0 9.3% 19.4% .291 98 4.26 102 0.7
José Berríos 166.3 8.2 2.2 1.4 5.9% 21.9% .289 97 4.28 103 1.9
Nate Pearson 65.3 10.3 4.0 1.5 10.1% 26.2% .282 97 4.52 103 0.7
Trent Thornton 85.7 8.2 3.5 1.4 8.9% 21.1% .288 97 4.57 103 0.6
Jackson Rees 38.7 10.0 3.3 1.6 8.2% 25.3% .297 96 4.37 104 0.1
Casey Lawrence 111.0 6.6 1.7 1.5 4.5% 17.7% .292 96 4.49 105 1.2
Jimmy Burnette 50.3 10.9 5.4 1.1 13.4% 27.2% .287 95 4.42 105 0.0
Mitch White 96.3 7.7 2.9 1.1 7.5% 19.8% .296 95 4.10 105 1.0
Yusei Kikuchi 110.3 9.2 3.9 1.5 10.0% 23.4% .294 95 4.67 105 1.0
Tayler Saucedo 45.3 8.3 4.0 1.2 10.0% 21.0% .289 93 4.54 107 0.2
Sean Rackoski 40.7 6.6 3.5 1.1 8.8% 16.5% .294 92 4.68 109 -0.1
Eric Yardley 44.0 5.9 3.5 1.0 8.8% 15.0% .293 91 4.88 110 -0.1
Nick Fraze 66.0 6.5 2.2 1.4 5.7% 17.1% .286 89 4.67 112 0.5
Bowden Francis 102.3 8.4 3.4 1.6 8.8% 21.7% .287 88 4.97 113 0.7
Sem Robberse 103.7 6.2 3.5 1.3 8.7% 15.4% .291 88 4.91 114 0.7
Sean Mellen 55.3 8.5 4.6 1.5 11.3% 21.1% .290 87 5.07 114 0.0
Matt Peacock 68.0 5.6 3.2 1.5 8.0% 14.0% .297 87 5.12 115 0.2
Anthony Kay 69.3 8.4 4.5 1.4 11.3% 21.0% .292 86 5.11 116 0.3
Braden Scott 58.3 9.4 4.9 1.4 12.4% 23.6% .286 86 5.02 116 -0.3
Trent Palmer 71.0 8.5 4.4 1.3 11.0% 21.1% .284 86 4.91 116 0.4
Thomas Hatch 108.3 7.1 2.9 1.5 7.5% 18.2% .291 86 4.99 117 0.6
Hagen Danner 35.7 7.1 4.3 1.3 10.3% 17.0% .283 85 5.09 118 -0.2
Yosver Zulueta 57.0 9.3 4.4 1.4 11.1% 23.4% .275 84 5.19 118 0.2
Jimmy Robbins 65.0 8.7 3.9 1.5 9.8% 22.1% .289 83 5.21 120 0.2
Paxton Schultz 89.3 7.2 4.0 1.5 10.0% 17.7% .296 83 5.19 120 0.4
Nick Allgeyer 90.7 6.9 3.9 1.6 9.7% 17.4% .288 83 5.39 121 0.2
Kyle Johnston 69.3 7.0 4.4 1.4 10.8% 17.1% .294 82 5.39 122 -0.1
Parker Caracci 43.3 7.7 5.2 1.2 12.4% 18.3% .291 82 5.25 122 -0.4
Alejandro Melean 72.7 6.9 4.1 1.5 10.1% 17.2% .294 82 5.29 122 0.1
Luis Quinones 65.7 9.6 5.9 1.4 14.3% 23.3% .281 82 5.24 122 0.2
Joey Murray 82.3 8.7 4.0 1.9 10.2% 22.1% .288 81 5.42 123 0.2
Andrew Bash 73.7 5.7 3.9 1.3 9.7% 14.2% .288 81 5.45 123 -0.2
Adam Kloffenstein 103.0 7.3 4.9 1.3 11.8% 17.5% .294 80 5.33 125 0.2
Mike Ellenbest 35.3 7.4 4.8 1.5 11.9% 18.1% .295 80 5.42 125 -0.2
Graham Spraker 58.3 8.2 4.6 1.9 11.4% 20.1% .289 77 5.76 130 -0.3
Brody Rodning 27.3 8.2 5.3 1.6 12.6% 19.7% .286 76 5.90 131 -0.3
Marcus Reyes 45.0 6.2 4.4 1.6 10.7% 15.0% .296 76 5.62 131 -0.4
Sergio Romo 33.7 8.3 3.2 2.1 8.1% 20.9% .292 76 5.56 132 -0.4
Gabriel Ponce 50.0 8.5 5.6 1.6 13.6% 20.6% .288 74 5.77 135 -0.6
Thomas Ruwe 29.7 10.0 8.5 1.5 19.3% 22.8% .299 74 5.95 135 -0.4
Derek Holland 40.0 8.1 4.5 2.0 11.0% 19.9% .296 73 5.93 137 -0.3
Fitz Stadler 49.3 8.0 5.7 2.0 13.4% 19.0% .301 69 6.27 145 -0.5
Jol Concepcion 48.0 7.7 7.9 1.7 17.9% 17.4% .288 65 6.76 154 -0.9

<

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Alek Manoah Frank Sullivan Matt Cain Lon Warneke 4.9 2.8 2.98 3.96
Tim Mayza Tug McGraw Mike Stanton Gary Wayne 1.2 0.2 2.96 4.25
Jordan Romano Cody Allen Jeff Reardon Todd Worrell 1.5 -0.1 2.74 4.81
Kevin Gausman Shane Reynolds Mike Mussina Paul Derringer 4.1 1.7 3.00 4.45
Anthony Bass Dick Tidrow Dave Veres Santiago Casilla 1.3 0.0 2.92 4.71
Erik Swanson Claude Raymond Mark Huismann Steve Reed 1.2 0.0 3.02 4.91
Adam Cimber Phil Regan Joe Beggs Dan Otero 1.1 0.1 3.10 4.86
Matt Gage Larry Bradford Mike Stanton Archie McKain 0.9 0.0 3.08 4.71
Hyun Jin Ryu Eppa Rixey Jim Kaat Warren Spahn 2.4 1.1 3.41 4.60
Brandon Eisert Scott Stewart Mark Lee Chris Limbach 1.2 0.1 3.20 4.99
Yimi Garcia Jeff Reardon Roy Face Bruce Sutter 1.0 -0.2 3.27 4.96
Ricky Tiedemann Scott Elbert Juan Oramas Larry Jaster 2.0 0.5 3.48 4.90
Adrian Hernandez Jeff Cornell Pete Ladd Joe Valentine 0.7 -0.2 3.54 5.00
Ryan Boyer Bruce Thompson Steve Kealey Charles Giddens 0.5 -0.2 3.38 5.49
David Phelps Tim Worrell Jason Grimsley Al Worthington 0.7 -0.4 3.28 5.86
Zach Pop Ryan Webb Don Bessent Todd Coffey 0.6 -0.2 3.49 5.19
Julian Merryweather Randy Moffitt Brian Omogrosso Bill Faul 0.5 -0.1 3.57 5.24
Hayden Juenger Lerrin LaGrow Rich Gossage Paul Cave 1.7 0.4 3.72 4.91
Ross Stripling Don Robinson Frank Lary Merrill Kelly 켈리 2.4 0.8 3.61 4.86
Trevor Richards Buzz Capra Ray Narleski Joaquin Benoit 1.2 -0.2 3.56 5.38
Foster Griffin Jim Shellenback Joe Kraemer Johnnie Seale 1.2 0.1 3.80 5.10
José Berríos Don Drysdale Homer Bailey Kevin Gausman 2.8 0.8 3.90 5.02
Nate Pearson Jim Donohue Logan Kensing Steve Ridzik 1.2 0.0 3.72 5.38
Trent Thornton Bill Atkinson Jim Coates Ed Rakow 1.1 -0.1 3.86 5.16
Jackson Rees Joel Peralta Scott Wright James Morrison 0.5 -0.3 3.65 5.29
Casey Lawrence Dutch Leonard Juan Marichal Kevin Tapani 1.8 0.4 3.93 5.13
Jimmy Burnette Kevin Siegrist Wesley Wright Kim Seaman 0.5 -0.4 3.79 5.22
Mitch White Joe Biagini Jack Egbert Art Ditmar 1.5 0.3 3.93 5.21
Yusei Kikuchi Brian Givens Bill Flynt William Bustle 1.8 -0.1 3.90 5.40
Tayler Saucedo Erik Plantenberg Steve Sinclair Mike Mohler 0.6 -0.3 3.83 5.59
Sean Rackoski Richie Barker Rafael Rodriguez Cary Hiles 0.2 -0.4 4.13 5.41
Eric Yardley Jesus Castillo Jason Karnuth Hipolito Pichardo 0.2 -0.4 4.16 5.37
Nick Fraze Tim McNamara Robert Weisenberg Dave Ford 0.9 0.1 4.23 5.43
Bowden Francis Rich DeLucia Steve Blass Chuck Dobson 1.4 0.0 4.27 5.43
Sem Robberse Dick Baney Stu Pomeranz Fernando Arroyo 1.2 0.1 4.43 5.34
Sean Mellen Scott Wiegandt Kyle Fernandes Bobby Seay 0.5 -0.5 4.27 5.63
Matt Peacock Roman Colon 콜론 Doug Sessions Dick Coffman 0.6 -0.2 4.43 5.48
Anthony Kay Jimmy Osting Don Hood Rich Kelley 0.8 -0.2 4.37 5.66
Braden Scott Mike Mohler Kevin Walker Angel Torres 0.3 -0.8 4.22 5.73
Trent Palmer Dan Opperman Tom Kelley Gerardo Garcia 0.8 -0.2 4.46 5.69
Thomas Hatch Bob Milacki Pep Harris Dereck Rodriguez 1.3 -0.1 4.43 5.55
Hagen Danner Jim Winn Ron Kaufman Bill Slack 0.0 -0.5 4.51 5.72
Yosver Zulueta Les Tietje Bill Faul Dick Woodson 0.7 -0.3 4.42 5.93
Jimmy Robbins Shawn Barton Kent Murphy Mike Jones 0.7 -0.3 4.56 5.84
Paxton Schultz Juan Castillo Robert Coe Randy Niles 0.8 -0.2 4.71 5.74
Nick Allgeyer Dave Fleming Ben Braymer Raymond Cordeiro 0.8 -0.4 4.61 5.75
Kyle Johnston Chad Rogers Francisco Rios Mike Penney 0.3 -0.6 4.68 5.83
Parker Caracci Jonathan Garcia Aguedo Vasquez John Ogiltree -0.1 -0.8 4.67 6.01
Alejandro Melean John Denny Jeff Hart Trad Sobik 0.7 -0.3 4.66 5.69
Luis Quinones John Purdin Bill Faul Terry Felton 0.7 -0.5 4.58 5.99
Joey Murray Adbert Alzolay Keith Creel Bill Bivens 0.8 -0.5 4.67 6.04
Andrew Bash Jim Bruske Brett Sinkbeil Douglas Gentry 0.3 -0.6 4.73 5.76
Adam Kloffenstein Jeff Bumgarner Bill Knoch Dick Calmus 0.7 -0.6 4.90 5.93
Mike Ellenbest Paul Thorp MacKenzie King Carlos Gonzalez 0.1 -0.5 4.69 6.28
Graham Spraker Brady Lail P.J. Francescon Paul Thornton 0.2 -1.0 4.92 6.65
Brody Rodning Steve Cates Lou Vickery Bert Cole -0.2 -0.5 4.98 6.61
Marcus Reyes Martin Montano Michael Heesch Clint Chrysler -0.1 -0.8 4.93 6.31
Sergio Romo Joe Borowski Art Herring Bob Porterfield -0.1 -0.8 4.63 7.12
Gabriel Ponce Shelby McDonald Evan Beal Mark Ecker -0.1 -1.0 4.97 6.62
Thomas Ruwe Dar Smith David Wong Jarrod Kingrey -0.1 -0.8 4.86 7.03
Derek Holland John Curtis Kris Regas Mark Langston 0.1 -0.8 4.82 7.19
Fitz Stadler Tyler Mark Heath Bowers Jeff Brewer -0.2 -1.0 5.54 7.02
Jol Concepcion Jheyson Manzueta Connor Kaden Mark Hampton -0.5 -1.4 5.78 7.58

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

35 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
downbaddav
1 month ago

“like they obtained a slightly blemished mold from the joey wendle factory” cracked me up