2022 ZiPS Projections: Oakland Athletics

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Oakland Athletics.

Batters

The departures of Mark Canha and Starling Marte are a real setback for Oakland, but the lineup’s core remains intact. This starts with bullishness on the Matts.

Five-win projections from a first baseman are kind of rare in ZiPS — I started building WAR projections into ZiPS in 2014, and this will be only the sixth time it’s happened — but Matt Olson is at the likely height of his powers. As terrific as he was in 2021, with a .271/.341/.540 line and 5.0 WAR, ZiPS isn’t projecting a dropoff, thanks both to regression and because it thinks he was somewhat unlucky in BABIP the last two years relative to his hit data. Vladito versus Olson for supremacy in the AL should be a fun battle the next few years, though the former is likely to vanquish the latter for good in a few years given their respective ages.

ZiPS isn’t projecting Matt Chapman to set any new personal bests, as his offense has fallen off enough that he’s probably left his 2018–19 MVP-ish peak for good. Getting back to the four-win threshold would still make him All-Star level, though. Chapman seems to come up in trade talks reasonably regularly, but I’m not sure the A’s actually move him this year unless the playoff race is an uphill battle in July.

Sean Murphy is arguably the AL’s second-best catcher right now, so ZiPS has no complaints there, especially with Austin Allen on-hand as well. Ramón Laureano is well above average in center, though his value will naturally take a hit with 27 games remaining to serve on a suspension. Oakland’s multi-player second base combo looks adequate, though unexciting.

Where ZiPS is rather unimpressed is at DH and the corner outfield. The A’s have a lot of versatile players at these three positions, but few are really up to the offensive requirements of the position. It’s not surprising that two-thirds of the outfield looks weak given the losses of Canha and Marte, the latter acquired to fill a similar hole himself. With the A’s not actually doing anything pre-lockout other than deal with options and acquire Brent Honeywell Jr., it’s not surprising that these positions look weak. They’re also unlikely to be filled from within; all the players projected with an OPS+ of at least 100 are already on the team.

Pitchers

There’s less uncertainty around who is going to be in the rotation in 2022 (at least right now) than in the previous season, when it looked like the A’s went into the year with seven or eight interesting possibilities, all of whom came with significant questions. Whether in the positive or negative, most of these questions have been answered: Chris Bassitt and Frankie Montas are actually good, Sean Manaea has upped his strikeout rate into the healthy range, A.J. Puk appears likely to remain in the bullpen now, and Jesús Luzardo is gone. A top three of Bassitt-Montas-Manaea probably won’t up-end the Cy Young race, but it’s a solid trio.

The back of the rotation looks weaker, with ZiPS not sold on either Cole Irvin or James Kaprielian. And the downside of answering all those pitching questions is that Oakland doesn’t have much in the way of depth at the moment. Scrolling down the projections of the pitchers still actually in the organization, nobody stands out as the protagonist in yet another story of the team getting a couple WAR out of journeyman starter with no name recognition. This probably won’t be the case by the start of the season; I can’t imagine the A’s go an entire offseason without fulfilling their full quota of under-the-radar signings on the cheap. But it’s where the roster stands now. I do like the addition of Honeywell, but he’s a pure gamble at this point. After basically missing three entire seasons due to injury, he returned in 2021 and didn’t pitch particularly well in the minors. I’ll always root for a screwball pitcher, but he has a ways to go.

That issue stretches into the bullpen, which Steamer currently ranks as the worst in baseball, and while ZiPS is more optimistic, it’s not by all that much. This analysis shouldn’t be all that surprising, given that the A’s have lost Andrew Chafin, Jake Diekman, and more from a unit that only ranked 19th in ERA- in 2021. ZiPS sees Domingo Acevedo and minor-league signing Dany Jiménez as average, with the line forming behind them.

All told, Oakland looks like a mid-80s team in terms of wins. But if they’re successful in making bargain pickups at the outfield corners and strike it rich with a cheap pitcher or two, the A’s may once again play the scrappy underdog annoying the living heck out of the Astros.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Matt Olson L 28 1B 620 527 89 139 29 0 37 110 79 130 3 1
Matt Chapman R 29 3B 612 531 83 122 26 4 29 81 69 177 2 2
Ramón Laureano R 27 CF 447 398 61 103 24 2 19 57 33 117 13 4
Sean Murphy R 27 C 386 338 47 77 19 1 15 51 35 103 1 0
Tony Kemp L 30 2B 380 323 48 85 15 3 7 34 44 50 8 3
Austin Allen L 28 C 350 325 39 81 19 1 13 45 19 80 0 0
Carlos Pérez R 31 C 400 369 41 79 16 1 14 49 21 73 0 0
Skye Bolt B 28 CF 318 287 35 62 14 2 8 31 25 90 6 2
Josh Harrison R 34 2B 475 433 47 111 23 2 6 45 25 68 7 4
Seth Brown L 29 RF 445 410 56 95 23 3 20 66 29 132 5 1
Elvis Andrus R 33 SS 549 507 62 127 24 3 6 43 31 82 13 4
Luis Barrera L 26 CF 380 348 42 80 14 5 4 30 25 82 8 3
Jed Lowrie B 38 2B 440 395 45 93 23 0 11 58 40 94 0 0
Dalton Kelly L 27 1B 454 397 53 84 16 1 13 46 44 135 12 3
Cody Thomas L 27 CF 403 366 42 72 15 4 14 46 29 147 1 1
Nick Allen R 23 SS 406 372 49 87 17 2 7 38 24 86 8 5
Chad Pinder R 30 RF 315 287 40 70 17 1 10 38 21 77 1 1
Mitch Moreland L 36 1B 275 248 33 58 12 1 11 39 24 63 0 0
Khris Davis R 34 LF 383 345 43 76 12 1 17 54 31 106 0 0
Stephen Piscotty R 31 RF 338 309 35 75 16 0 11 41 22 79 2 0
Nate Mondou L 27 2B 427 377 47 81 15 1 6 34 35 89 2 4
Vimael Machín L 28 3B 449 394 52 89 17 2 7 38 45 91 3 1
Michael Guldberg R 23 CF 236 217 22 48 8 1 5 16 13 51 7 1
Max Schuemann R 25 SS 494 449 50 95 21 2 7 34 30 116 26 5
Vince Fernandez L 26 LF 305 270 32 49 9 2 11 31 25 125 2 1
Pete Kozma R 34 SS 436 402 42 82 19 2 4 31 25 92 4 1
Drew Jackson R 28 2B 310 271 37 54 10 1 6 28 30 96 13 3
Jonah Bride R 26 1B 388 343 45 74 14 1 8 35 32 86 1 0
Edwin Díaz R 26 3B 397 361 36 64 17 2 11 36 29 143 2 0
Mickey McDonald L 27 CF 427 384 46 81 13 2 3 27 32 113 11 2
Jake Suddleson R 24 RF 410 372 44 78 14 1 10 36 26 99 1 0
Jordan Diaz R 21 3B 405 378 50 90 17 1 12 49 20 82 2 2
Buddy Reed B 27 CF 350 316 34 60 11 2 7 30 26 127 14 6
Collin Theroux R 28 C 283 255 23 39 6 0 7 20 24 144 0 0
Francisco Peña R 32 1B 382 344 41 72 14 0 11 41 22 88 1 0
Dermis Garcia R 24 1B 428 389 37 69 12 1 18 50 32 172 7 2
Logan Davidson B 24 SS 477 433 54 78 17 1 7 37 39 150 3 1
Devin Foyle L 25 LF 407 367 44 72 13 3 8 37 31 113 6 4
Kyle McCann L 24 C 356 322 35 48 9 1 9 30 29 141 1 0
Marty Bechina R 25 LF 292 264 26 43 11 0 6 23 17 107 3 2
Jeremy Eierman R 25 3B 409 380 34 65 13 2 10 34 21 151 7 3
Mikey White R 28 1B 338 308 33 58 14 0 7 31 23 109 1 1
Elvis Peralta L 25 2B 267 245 26 43 8 1 2 15 18 86 9 2
Austin Beck R 23 CF 340 318 33 57 11 1 8 32 16 120 2 1

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Matt Olson .264 .366 .529 145 .266 .283 7.1 5 5.0 Kent Hrbek
Matt Chapman .230 .324 .458 114 .228 .286 5.2 11 4.4 Doug Rader
Ramón Laureano .259 .329 .472 120 .214 .321 5.8 0 2.9 Ivan Calderon
Sean Murphy .228 .314 .423 103 .195 .282 4.7 5 2.6 Todd Pratt
Tony Kemp .263 .358 .393 110 .130 .293 5.2 -3 1.7 Luis Alicea
Austin Allen .249 .295 .434 100 .185 .293 4.6 0 1.6 Pat Borders
Carlos Pérez .214 .264 .377 76 .163 .230 3.4 7 1.2 Dave Valle
Skye Bolt .216 .282 .362 78 .146 .286 3.6 9 1.2 Mike Berger
Josh Harrison .256 .314 .360 88 .104 .292 4.1 0 1.1 Manny Trillo
Seth Brown .232 .283 .449 99 .217 .291 4.5 2 1.1 Larry Barnes
Elvis Andrus .250 .296 .345 78 .095 .289 3.8 0 0.9 Royce Clayton
Luis Barrera .230 .284 .333 72 .103 .290 3.4 5 0.6 McKay Christensen
Jed Lowrie .235 .307 .377 90 .142 .283 4.1 -5 0.6 Terry Pendleton
Dalton Kelly .212 .297 .355 81 .144 .285 3.8 5 0.5 Nate Espy
Cody Thomas .197 .261 .374 74 .178 .283 3.3 3 0.5 Doug Devore
Nick Allen .234 .284 .347 75 .113 .287 3.4 1 0.5 Josh Wilson
Chad Pinder .244 .303 .415 97 .171 .300 4.4 -1 0.5 Matt Mieske
Mitch Moreland .234 .302 .423 99 .190 .270 4.5 0 0.4 Chris Richard
Khris Davis .220 .290 .409 92 .188 .266 4.1 0 0.4 Scott Ullger
Stephen Piscotty .243 .300 .401 93 .159 .292 4.4 -2 0.4 Glenn Wilson
Nate Mondou .215 .288 .308 67 .093 .266 2.9 5 0.3 John Tamargo
Vimael Machín .226 .309 .332 80 .107 .277 3.6 -3 0.2 Brian Grebeck
Michael Guldberg .221 .277 .336 70 .115 .267 3.5 1 0.2 Lee Grimes
Max Schuemann .212 .276 .314 65 .102 .270 3.3 -1 0.2 Steve Benson
Vince Fernandez .181 .264 .352 70 .170 .284 3.1 7 0.2 Jim Betzsold
Pete Kozma .204 .255 .291 52 .087 .255 2.6 8 0.2 Leo Durocher
Drew Jackson .199 .289 .310 68 .111 .284 3.3 0 0.1 Sharnol Adriana
Jonah Bride .216 .295 .332 75 .117 .265 3.4 3 0.0 Bryan Peck
Edwin Díaz .177 .245 .327 58 .150 .256 2.7 6 0.0 Greg Thissen
Mickey McDonald .211 .278 .279 57 .068 .291 2.8 4 -0.2 Darrell Dent
Jake Suddleson .210 .275 .333 69 .124 .259 3.2 3 -0.3 Tom Bonk
Jordan Diaz .238 .276 .384 81 .146 .275 3.7 -8 -0.4 Omar Malave
Buddy Reed .190 .256 .304 55 .114 .291 2.7 2 -0.5 Bert Hunter
Collin Theroux .153 .233 .259 37 .106 .308 1.9 2 -0.6 Roy Anderson
Francisco Pena .209 .263 .346 68 .137 .249 3.1 2 -0.7 Chris Pritchett
Dermis Garcia .177 .242 .352 63 .175 .256 2.9 4 -0.7 John Lindsey
Logan Davidson .180 .248 .273 46 .092 .257 2.3 4 -0.8 Tom Schmidt
Devin Foyle .196 .264 .313 60 .117 .260 2.7 1 -1.0 Bryan Carter
Kyle McCann .149 .225 .267 37 .118 .227 1.9 0 -1.2 Andres Pagan
Marty Bechina .163 .219 .273 36 .110 .245 1.9 5 -1.2 Eddie Brooks
Jeremy Eierman .171 .223 .295 43 .124 .251 2.2 3 -1.2 Duane Thielen
Mikey White .188 .252 .302 54 .114 .266 2.5 0 -1.4 Shawn Buhner
Elvis Peralta .176 .241 .241 35 .065 .261 2.1 -7 -1.8 Jose Alguacil
Austin Beck .179 .222 .296 43 .116 .258 2.2 -10 -2.3 Tom Knauss

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Frankie Montas R 29 12 9 3.54 30 30 170.3 153 67 22 50 186 3.66
Sean Manaea L 30 11 8 3.68 28 28 156.3 149 64 22 35 157 3.83
Chris Bassitt R 33 8 6 3.69 26 25 139.0 123 57 16 41 131 3.89
Daulton Jefferies R 26 4 3 4.07 22 16 90.7 93 41 12 16 71 4.03
Cole Irvin L 28 10 11 4.64 30 27 157.0 170 81 25 38 111 4.72
Brady Feigl L 31 7 8 4.54 24 21 103.0 108 52 14 36 79 4.61
Mike Fiers R 37 6 7 4.60 20 19 105.7 108 54 19 29 73 5.10
James Kaprielian R 28 6 7 4.66 24 21 110.0 105 57 20 42 111 4.81
Jake Diekman L 35 3 2 3.52 62 0 53.7 40 21 5 33 74 3.81
Homer Bailey R 36 6 7 4.71 19 19 91.7 94 48 14 31 76 4.62
Paul Blackburn R 28 7 8 4.85 25 23 124.3 137 67 19 36 88 4.76
Andrew Chafin L 32 3 2 3.63 68 0 57.0 48 23 6 18 59 3.53
Colin Peluse R 24 6 6 4.71 21 18 91.7 97 48 15 29 72 4.85
Dany Jiménez R 28 4 3 3.72 40 1 48.3 39 20 6 24 61 3.95
A.J. Puk L 27 5 4 4.18 38 4 60.3 58 28 8 26 61 4.32
Domingo Acevedo R 28 2 2 3.74 36 1 45.7 41 19 6 15 49 3.86
Adam Kolarek L 33 2 1 3.91 51 0 50.7 51 22 4 17 33 4.03
Chase Cohen R 25 4 4 4.85 18 12 65.0 64 35 7 41 53 5.03
Trevor Rosenthal R 32 1 1 3.54 22 0 20.3 15 8 2 13 29 3.67
Brian Howard R 27 6 7 5.05 24 22 114.0 122 64 20 41 88 5.15
Deolis Guerra R 33 3 2 4.01 48 0 58.3 53 26 8 19 61 4.05
Zack Erwin L 28 6 6 4.46 42 4 72.7 76 36 9 27 57 4.50
Yusmeiro Petit R 37 5 4 4.12 69 0 67.7 65 31 10 13 47 4.29
Lou Trivino R 30 7 6 4.16 67 0 67.0 59 31 8 33 66 4.37
Brian Schlitter R 36 1 2 4.47 38 3 46.3 50 23 5 16 29 4.50
Grant Holmes R 26 2 3 4.88 33 9 75.7 77 41 11 34 63 4.91
Brent Honeywell Jr. R 27 3 4 5.06 15 10 53.3 60 30 9 17 37 5.11
Aiden McIntyre R 26 3 4 4.85 34 8 68.7 65 37 8 46 67 4.93
Jack Cushing R 25 6 8 5.17 20 17 95.7 106 55 15 38 62 5.27
Sergio Romo R 39 1 1 4.30 58 0 52.3 49 25 8 19 51 4.42
Sam Moll L 30 1 1 4.36 39 0 43.3 39 21 5 23 43 4.50
Ty Damron L 27 4 5 5.17 24 15 78.3 84 45 12 36 60 5.21
Zach Jackson R 27 3 3 4.39 34 0 41.0 37 20 6 21 42 4.72
Reymin Guduan L 30 3 3 4.40 39 0 45.0 45 22 5 22 39 4.49
Parker Dunshee R 27 4 5 5.29 18 17 83.3 88 49 17 31 69 5.44
Justin Grimm R 33 3 3 4.56 44 1 49.3 44 25 8 23 56 4.54
Miguel Romero R 28 3 4 5.12 32 10 72.0 76 41 11 32 54 5.17
Ben Bracewell R 31 4 4 4.89 42 4 73.7 77 40 12 27 60 4.93
Matt Blackham R 29 2 3 4.98 29 1 34.3 30 19 5 23 40 4.93
Wandisson Charles R 25 2 2 4.71 37 0 49.7 41 26 7 35 62 4.81
Dalton Sawyer L 28 2 3 4.76 40 0 45.3 43 24 6 26 47 4.75
Burch Smith R 32 2 3 5.16 34 5 66.3 68 38 11 31 58 5.12
Bryce Conley R 27 4 6 5.44 27 15 84.3 86 51 11 52 65 5.36
Kyle Friedrichs R 30 4 6 5.51 22 18 98.0 112 60 18 33 60 5.51
Aaron Brown L 30 3 4 4.84 48 0 57.7 56 31 6 35 51 4.74
Jesus Zambrano R 25 4 5 4.87 36 0 57.3 60 31 8 25 43 4.96
Jack Weisenburger R 24 2 3 5.22 40 0 50.0 49 29 8 32 48 5.44
Matt Milburn R 28 5 8 5.64 24 18 107.0 129 67 22 25 55 5.69
Ryan Castellani R 26 5 8 5.83 23 22 92.7 95 60 17 62 75 6.15
Norge Ruiz R 28 3 5 5.78 24 8 71.7 83 46 15 25 46 5.83

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Frankie Montas 9.8 2.6 1.2 7.1% 26.2% .294 116 86 3.4 Aaron Harang
Sean Manaea 9.0 2.0 1.3 5.4% 24.2% .297 112 90 2.8 John Smiley
Chris Bassitt 8.5 2.7 1.0 7.1% 22.5% .279 111 90 2.5 Burt Hooton
Daulton Jefferies 7.0 1.6 1.2 4.2% 18.7% .295 101 99 1.2 Brian Holton
Cole Irvin 6.4 2.2 1.4 5.6% 16.4% .294 89 113 1.0 Mike Maroth
Brady Feigl 6.9 3.1 1.2 8.0% 17.6% .297 90 111 0.8 Odalis Perez
Mike Fiers 6.2 2.5 1.6 6.4% 16.2% .274 89 112 0.8 Fergie Jenkins
James Kaprielian 9.1 3.4 1.6 8.8% 23.4% .286 88 113 0.7 Dave Mlicki
Jake Diekman 12.4 5.5 0.8 13.9% 31.2% .294 117 86 0.6 Juan Berenguer
Homer Bailey 7.5 3.0 1.4 7.8% 19.2% .294 87 115 0.6 Kevin Jarvis
Paul Blackburn 6.4 2.6 1.4 6.6% 16.2% .300 85 118 0.6 Doug Waechter
Andrew Chafin 9.3 2.8 0.9 7.7% 25.1% .280 113 88 0.6 Andy Van Hekken 밴헤켄
Colin Peluse 7.1 2.8 1.5 7.3% 18.0% .295 87 115 0.6 Elizardo Ramirez
Dany Jiménez 11.4 4.5 1.1 11.5% 29.3% .289 110 91 0.4 Jorge Vasquez
A.J. Puk 9.1 3.9 1.2 9.8% 23.1% .301 98 102 0.4 Tom Bolton
Domingo Acevedo 9.7 3.0 1.2 7.8% 25.5% .292 110 91 0.4 Mike Connolly
Adam Kolarek 5.9 3.0 0.7 7.8% 15.1% .290 105 95 0.3 Steve Hamilton
Chase Cohen 7.3 5.7 1.0 13.7% 17.7% .294 85 118 0.3 Tim Byron
Trevor Rosenthal 12.8 5.8 0.9 14.6% 32.6% .295 116 86 0.2 Ryne Duren
Brian Howard 6.9 3.2 1.6 8.2% 17.5% .294 81 123 0.2 Alan Fowlkes
Deolis Guerra 9.4 2.9 1.2 7.7% 24.7% .290 102 98 0.2 Steve Crawford
Zack Erwin 7.1 3.3 1.1 8.4% 17.8% .300 92 108 0.2 John Cummings
Yusmeiro Petit 6.3 1.7 1.3 4.7% 17.0% .267 100 100 0.2 Mike Timlin
Lou Trivino 8.9 4.4 1.1 11.3% 22.7% .282 99 101 0.2 Ed Farmer
Brian Schlitter 5.6 3.1 1.0 7.9% 14.3% .298 92 109 0.1 Fred Gladding
Grant Holmes 7.5 4.0 1.3 10.1% 18.8% .295 84 119 0.1 Jeromy Palki
Brent Honeywell Jr. 6.2 2.9 1.5 7.2% 15.7% .300 81 123 0.1 Elmer Dessens
Aiden McIntyre 8.8 6.0 1.0 14.6% 21.2% .298 85 118 0.1 Kevin Towers
Jack Cushing 5.8 3.6 1.4 8.9% 14.5% .295 79 126 0.1 Ben Christensen
Sergio Romo 8.8 3.3 1.4 8.5% 22.9% .287 96 105 0.0 Doug Bair
Sam Moll 8.9 4.8 1.0 12.0% 22.4% .288 94 106 0.0 Matt Whisenant
Ty Damron 6.9 4.1 1.4 10.2% 16.9% .299 80 126 0.0 Jason Cromer
Zach Jackson 9.2 4.6 1.3 11.7% 23.3% .284 94 107 0.0 Gerry Hannahs
Reymin Guduan 7.8 4.4 1.0 10.9% 19.4% .301 93 107 0.0 Matt Dunbar
Parker Dunshee 7.5 3.3 1.8 8.4% 18.8% .289 78 129 0.0 Mike Saipe
Justin Grimm 10.2 4.2 1.5 10.7% 26.2% .288 90 111 -0.1 Juan Eichelberger
Miguel Romero 6.8 4.0 1.4 9.9% 16.8% .294 80 125 -0.1 Hansel Izquierdo
Ben Bracewell 7.3 3.3 1.5 8.3% 18.5% .294 84 119 -0.2 Danny Graves
Matt Blackham 10.5 6.0 1.3 14.7% 25.6% .291 83 121 -0.2 Bart Miadich
Wandisson Charles 11.2 6.3 1.3 15.6% 27.6% .288 87 115 -0.2 Billy Sadler
Dalton Sawyer 9.3 5.2 1.2 12.7% 22.9% .301 86 116 -0.2 Dennys Reyes
Burch Smith 7.9 4.2 1.5 10.5% 19.6% .295 80 125 -0.3 Bobby Munoz
Bryce Conley 6.9 5.5 1.2 13.3% 16.7% .292 76 132 -0.3 Nate Puryear
Kyle Friedrichs 5.5 3.0 1.7 7.6% 13.8% .294 75 134 -0.3 Allen Davis
Aaron Brown 8.0 5.5 0.9 13.3% 19.4% .298 85 118 -0.3 Randy Choate
Jesus Zambrano 6.8 3.9 1.3 9.8% 16.8% .294 84 118 -0.4 Andy Nezelek
Jack Weisenburger 8.6 5.8 1.4 13.9% 20.8% .293 79 127 -0.5 Greg Coppeta
Matt Milburn 4.6 2.1 1.9 5.3% 11.7% .294 73 137 -0.6 Heath Totten
Ryan Castellani 7.3 6.0 1.7 14.3% 17.3% .285 71 142 -0.6 Alex Sanchez
Norge Ruiz 5.8 3.1 1.9 7.8% 14.3% .294 71 141 -0.7 Brian Sweeney

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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It looks like ZiPS and Steamer have significant disagreement regarding the rankings of AL third basemen. Yes, they both have Ramirez as the clear #1, but ZiPS has Chapman basically equal to Bregman for #2, while Steamer also puts him behind Devers, Rendon and Moncada and basically equal to Donaldson and LeMahieu in value.