2023 ZiPS Projections: Texas Rangers

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Texas Rangers.

Batters

The Rangers undergo rebuilding with a refreshing urgency you don’t always see, though that’s hardly surprising since they’re not actually a small-market team. While their previous rebuild kinda struck out, that one, which I always refer to as the “skinny rebuild,” wasn’t quite as focused as this go-around. This time, while they’re developing their talent from within, they’re also going after top free agents, guys who are likely to still be good the next time the Rangers are a contending team, and who are of a caliber that’s hard to develop yourself. A lot of teams blunder this approach, deciding to gird their rebuilding loins with quantity rather than actual quality. That’s kind of what the Padres did in the early going, first acquiring Matt Kemp as if he were a foundational talent and then giving an absurdly large deal to the very ordinary Eric Hosmer. The Rangers haven’t made a bunch of confusingly gigantic commitments to middling players; they signed average players to fairly short, sensible deals (Jon Gray, Martín Pérez, Andrew Heaney) while going all-out for the players who can really make a difference (Jacob deGrom, Corey Seager, and Marcus Semien).

Now, as a contender, the Rangers are still an incomplete squad, as you can see when looking at the offensive projections. The middle infield is absolutely elite and while Nathaniel Lowe isn’t likely to hit .300 again, he’s an adequate starter who won’t reach free agency for another four years, even though it feels like he’s more of a veteran than that. Josh Jung’s cup of coffee was a bit bitter, but ZiPS believes he’s of a similar quality vintage as Lowe. Jonah Heim took a big step forward offensively and while nobody’s going to confuse him with J.T. Realmuto, his bat has improved enough to make his excellent defense matter quite a bit. Mitch Garver is a useful role player who can provide some additional pop while being able to more than fake it at catcher.

Where there’s still a problem is in the outfield. Leody Taveras’ defense gives him a serviceable floor, but he’s still not really an offensive plus. Adolis García is popular and has excellent power, but he isn’t young, his plate discipline is unimpressive, and he’s probably not as good in center field as his limited numbers in the majors suggest. However the playing time situation in left field works out, it’s likely to project at the bottom of the league. Bringing in someone like Bryan Reynolds would be very satisfying here. Even Michael Conforto would be interesting if the Rangers could agree with him on a framework where the team gets more than a short-term benefit if he’s healthy.

Pitchers

Jacob deGrom has to be considered an injury risk, but if he is healthy, who else would you prefer to have pitching for you? The rotation looks like a big improvement over what was projected this time last year, with Pérez’s outlook improved, and Gray and Heaney in the mix. Whether Dane Dunning or Jake Odorizzi end up as the fifth starter, it’s one of the better “last starter on paper” situations in the majors.

ZiPS sees the bullpen as middle-of-the-pack but with excellent depth. If you look at our current depth chart for the Rangers, you don’t get to a replacement-level reliever until Daniel Robert at 16th. And that depth chart doesn’t include someone ZiPS really likes, 2021 draftee Chase Lee. Steamer likes Lee as well, but not to the same degree as ZiPS. In terms of surprise, the last time a relief projection surprised me this much was Giovanny Gallegos before his breakout. Now, I’m naturally inclined to love sidearmers and submariners (Lee is more of the sidearmer type rather than one of the guys who almost drags a knuckle in the dirt), but ZiPS doesn’t know he’s one! Posting 2.63 FIP at Double-A and a 3.22 at Triple-A in a brutal environment for pitchers is pretty impressive. Like many sidearmers, Lee has quite significant platoon splits, so he’d fit more as a situational rightly reliever than in a jack-of-all-trades role.

I believe the Rangers are Wild Card contenders, but until they patch up their last few holes, they’re going to worry the Mariners more than they worry the Astros.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Marcus Semien R 32 2B 686 617 102 163 34 4 29 81 62 118 16 5
Corey Seager L 29 SS 591 526 83 142 31 2 24 78 55 95 2 1
Jonah Heim B 28 C 388 353 41 86 19 2 13 44 31 73 2 1
Adolis García R 30 RF 604 560 85 137 27 4 28 90 33 180 17 6
Nathaniel Lowe L 27 1B 618 549 73 150 26 2 22 74 63 142 3 1
Josh H. Smith L 25 3B 464 398 58 96 18 3 8 56 47 95 11 5
Justin Foscue R 24 2B 413 372 50 92 26 1 12 63 28 86 1 2
Leody Taveras B 24 CF 568 519 67 125 23 5 12 56 41 142 17 7
Mitch Garver R 32 C 267 233 37 56 12 0 13 34 29 73 1 1
Mark Mathias R 28 2B 357 316 40 75 16 1 11 53 33 93 9 2
Josh Jung R 25 3B 280 260 32 65 14 1 12 44 16 78 2 1
Sam Huff R 25 C 381 351 43 78 11 0 17 51 25 131 1 1
Ezequiel Duran R 24 SS 529 493 64 119 28 4 16 70 28 147 11 6
Yohel Pozo R 26 C 357 343 39 94 18 1 10 44 10 45 1 1
Bubba Thompson R 25 CF 511 477 65 114 18 5 11 56 24 148 30 5
Zach Reks 렉스 L 29 RF 362 324 49 78 17 1 13 52 31 111 1 1
Eli White R 29 CF 336 302 41 64 10 2 8 34 27 103 14 3
Kellen Strahm R 26 RF 383 337 50 74 11 1 7 41 38 105 5 1
Jonathan Ornelas R 23 SS 534 499 66 115 18 3 9 58 27 130 6 4
Trevor Hauver L 24 LF 431 365 48 76 16 1 11 48 58 141 1 1
Ryan Dorow R 27 SS 441 397 51 88 18 2 8 46 36 118 3 2
Aaron Zavala L 23 RF 493 425 62 97 17 2 10 66 56 126 7 3
Dustin Harris L 23 LF 422 384 54 97 17 2 13 55 30 89 10 3
Sandro Fabian R 25 RF 361 337 41 81 15 1 11 49 15 78 1 1
Blaine Crim R 26 1B 506 465 60 117 20 0 16 71 28 105 1 1
Evan Carter L 20 CF 450 393 60 87 16 3 8 57 45 98 12 8
Kevin Plawecki R 32 C 189 170 15 41 8 0 2 16 14 32 0 1
Davis Wendzel R 26 SS 342 308 38 65 12 0 10 40 27 98 1 1
J.P. Martinez L 27 CF 437 391 49 82 15 5 9 49 38 147 18 5
Scott Kapers R 26 C 183 160 20 30 4 0 5 34 10 67 0 1
Jayce Easley B 23 CF 306 262 42 55 8 2 2 27 36 75 17 4
Joe McCarthy L 29 1B 317 282 37 62 13 1 9 40 29 89 2 1
Jax Biggers L 26 3B 280 258 22 58 11 2 1 22 16 54 5 2
Thomas Saggese R 21 2B 419 387 46 89 17 3 11 53 25 121 6 2
Brad Miller L 33 LF 316 284 36 61 9 1 13 40 30 95 3 1
Diosbel Arias R 26 2B 424 389 39 91 17 1 5 40 29 97 1 1
Sherten Apostel R 24 1B 210 189 22 37 9 0 5 22 18 78 0 1
Frainyer Chavez B 24 2B 353 318 34 71 11 2 1 31 28 85 6 3
Charlie Culberson R 34 3B 207 191 21 45 10 1 4 19 11 53 3 2
Matt Whatley R 27 C 236 211 24 43 7 0 3 19 17 67 2 2
Kole Calhoun L 35 RF 397 355 41 72 15 1 13 44 34 115 2 1
David Garcia B 23 C 306 285 28 61 12 0 4 29 15 86 0 1
Jack Kruger R 28 C 244 228 18 51 7 1 2 21 12 56 1 1
Cody Freeman R 22 C 416 378 42 85 12 1 8 45 28 83 4 3
Luisangel Acuña R 21 SS 450 411 57 93 14 2 9 45 35 124 20 7
Elier Hernandez R 28 RF 401 374 44 85 15 2 9 48 20 104 5 2
Angel Aponte R 23 RF 253 229 32 51 10 1 3 30 15 70 8 3
Yosy Galan R 22 LF 377 345 44 65 12 3 15 53 23 163 8 3
Chris Seise R 24 DH 375 348 41 67 10 2 7 35 25 132 5 2

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Marcus Semien 686 .264 .332 .473 120 .209 .285 6 4.8 .345
Corey Seager 591 .270 .343 .473 123 .203 .290 0 4.1 .348
Jonah Heim 388 .244 .304 .419 98 .176 .273 12 2.8 .312
Adolis García 604 .245 .293 .457 103 .213 .310 7 2.0 .319
Nathaniel Lowe 618 .273 .351 .448 120 .175 .332 -4 2.0 .346
Josh H. Smith 464 .241 .340 .362 95 .121 .298 4 1.8 .314
Justin Foscue 413 .247 .315 .419 101 .172 .292 1 1.6 .318
Leody Taveras 568 .241 .297 .374 84 .133 .310 7 1.6 .291
Mitch Garver 267 .240 .330 .459 115 .219 .293 -2 1.6 .340
Mark Mathias 357 .237 .317 .399 97 .161 .302 2 1.4 .311
Josh Jung 280 .250 .304 .450 105 .200 .312 2 1.3 .324
Sam Huff 381 .222 .281 .399 85 .177 .300 2 1.2 .294
Ezequiel Duran 529 .241 .287 .412 91 .170 .312 -3 1.2 .300
Yohel Pozo 357 .274 .297 .420 96 .146 .292 -2 1.2 .308
Bubba Thompson 511 .239 .281 .367 78 .128 .324 -2 0.5 .282
Zach Reks 362 .241 .318 .420 102 .179 .325 -4 0.4 .321
Eli White 336 .212 .289 .338 73 .126 .293 1 0.4 .278
Kellen Strahm 383 .220 .304 .320 74 .101 .298 7 0.3 .281
Jonathan Ornelas 534 .230 .276 .333 68 .102 .294 3 0.3 .266
Trevor Hauver 431 .208 .320 .348 86 .140 .305 1 0.3 .298
Ryan Dorow 441 .222 .293 .338 74 .116 .295 -3 0.2 .280
Aaron Zavala 493 .228 .333 .348 90 .120 .301 -3 0.2 .306
Dustin Harris 422 .253 .313 .409 98 .156 .298 -6 0.2 .313
Sandro Fabian 361 .240 .285 .389 84 .148 .282 2 0.2 .292
Blaine Crim 506 .252 .302 .398 92 .146 .294 0 0.2 .303
Evan Carter 450 .221 .310 .338 80 .117 .275 -3 0.1 .289
Kevin Plawecki 189 .241 .309 .324 76 .082 .287 -2 0.1 .283
Davis Wendzel 342 .211 .284 .347 74 .136 .275 -4 0.0 .279
J.P. Martinez 437 .210 .287 .343 74 .133 .311 -3 0.0 .279
Scott Kapers 183 .188 .280 .306 63 .119 .284 -1 0.0 .266
Jayce Easley 306 .210 .315 .279 67 .069 .286 -3 -0.1 .274
Joe McCarthy 317 .220 .300 .369 84 .149 .288 0 -0.2 .294
Jax Biggers 280 .225 .273 .295 58 .070 .281 3 -0.3 .252
Thomas Saggese 419 .230 .280 .375 79 .145 .306 -6 -0.3 .283
Brad Miller 316 .215 .291 .391 87 .176 .273 -4 -0.3 .296
Diosbel Arias 424 .234 .290 .321 70 .087 .300 -2 -0.3 .271
Sherten Apostel 210 .196 .271 .323 64 .127 .302 3 -0.4 .264
Frainyer Chavez 353 .223 .293 .280 60 .057 .302 0 -0.4 .259
Charlie Culberson 207 .236 .279 .361 76 .126 .306 -4 -0.4 .279
Matt Whatley 236 .204 .267 .280 52 .076 .284 -1 -0.4 .246
Kole Calhoun 397 .203 .280 .361 76 .158 .260 0 -0.5 .280
David Garcia 306 .214 .259 .298 54 .084 .292 -2 -0.6 .246
Jack Kruger 244 .224 .270 .289 56 .066 .288 -4 -0.6 .250
Cody Freeman 416 .225 .288 .325 70 .101 .268 -12 -0.9 .273
Luisangel Acuña 450 .226 .289 .336 73 .109 .302 -16 -1.1 .276
Elier Hernandez 401 .227 .274 .350 72 .123 .291 -5 -1.1 .273
Angel Aponte 253 .223 .286 .314 67 .092 .308 -10 -1.5 .267
Yosy Galan 377 .188 .252 .371 70 .183 .299 -10 -1.7 .270
Chris Seise 375 .193 .248 .293 49 .101 .287 0 -1.8 .240

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Marcus Semien Charlie Gehringer Ryne Sandberg Ian Kinsler
Corey Seager Kyle Seager Aubrey Huff Neil Walker
Jonah Heim Mike Lieberthal Wiki Gonzalez Brian Schneider
Adolis García Danny Santana Billy Cowan John Shelby
Nathaniel Lowe Norm Siebern Keith Hernandez Joey Votto
Josh H. Smith Quilvio Veras Hoy Park Rudy Meoli
Justin Foscue Greg Schultz Gordon Beckham Davey Williams
Leody Taveras Bill Flowers Fred Valentine Mookie Wilson
Mitch Garver Jim Pagliaroni Ken O’Dea Devin Mesoraco
Mark Mathias Buddy Blattner Tony Bernazard Junior Spivey
Josh Jung Juan Guerrero Kevin Mitchell Winston Llenas
Sam Huff Jody Davis Jim Campbell Deivy Grullón
Ezequiel Duran Alfonso Soriano Eduardo Perez Adalberto Mondesi
Yohel Pozo Toby Hall Joe Azcue Kevin Pasley
Bubba Thompson Bobby Mitchell Carlos Gómez Scott Bullett
Zach Reks Jeremy Hermida Bill Terry Jack Pierce
Eli White Herm Winningham Gale Wade Reggie Thomas
Kellen Strahm Joe Klein Neil Martin Joe Zdeb
Jonathan Ornelas Willi Castro Marco Hernandez Kiko Garcia
Trevor Hauver Vernon Ramie Ryan Noda Brian Stavisky
Ryan Dorow Brandon Crawford George Strickland Terry Harmon
Aaron Zavala Scott Reid Bob Farley Warren Newson 뉴선
Dustin Harris Bobby Tolan Marquis Grissom Jerry White
Sandro Fabian Mike Marchiano Greg Morrison Ben Abner
Blaine Crim Ron MacDonald Tony Torchia Douglas King
Evan Carter Lenny Dykstra Gary Thomasson Sheldon Mallory
Kevin Plawecki Junior Ortiz Lavern Grace Jose Yepez
Davis Wendzel David Masters Niko Vasquez Jim Crowley
J.P. Martinez Earl Robinson Demond Smith Reggie Thomas
Scott Kapers B.J. Richardson Jeff Lanning Jack Mull
Jayce Easley Dre Jacas James Zgorzelski Bill North
Joe McCarthy Cody Asche Joe Wallis Preston Ward
Jax Biggers Jared Mathis Christian Stringer Evel Bastida
Thomas Saggese Ryan Adams Travis Wilson Ron Gardenhire
Brad Miller Nolan Reimold Ruben Rivera Chris Richard
Diosbel Arias Ruben Salazar Tyler Smith Ivan de Jesus
Sherten Apostel Craig Massoni Troy Sieber Wil Sowers
Frainyer Chavez Evan Pratte Derek Mann Ramon Sambo
Charlie Culberson Mike Mordecai Terry Shumpert Mike Benjamin
Matt Whatley Bob Kappesser Jan Vazquez Patrick Arlis
Kole Calhoun Rick Lancellotti Horace Garner Ed Stevens
David Garcia Gary Jones Daniel Salters Pat Britt
Jack Kruger Luis De La Cruz Samuel Mauney David Richards
Cody Freeman Trevor Brown Marty Martinson Rob Johnson
Luisangel Acuña Antonio Perez Hiram Bocachica Marcus Sanders
Elier Hernandez Derek Reid Brian Cornelius Mel McGaha
Angel Aponte Vance Vizcaino P.J. Polk Bo Rein
Yosy Galan Andrew Dyes Jeremy Moore Tom Demerit
Chris Seise Tim Morris Jared Bolden Kyle Petty

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Marcus Semien .287 .356 .530 138 6.4 .241 .307 .423 99 3.3
Corey Seager .292 .366 .532 144 5.5 .243 .319 .425 105 2.7
Jonah Heim .279 .336 .488 123 4.0 .218 .278 .358 77 1.8
Adolis García .270 .317 .517 124 3.6 .217 .265 .402 83 0.6
Nathaniel Lowe .297 .378 .495 138 3.4 .244 .324 .404 102 0.6
Josh H. Smith .268 .364 .411 114 2.9 .218 .310 .323 78 0.9
Justin Foscue .272 .339 .466 118 2.4 .225 .293 .364 82 0.5
Leody Taveras .261 .320 .419 99 2.5 .216 .274 .331 67 0.4
Mitch Garver .267 .356 .516 136 2.2 .210 .301 .395 93 0.9
Mark Mathias .262 .344 .452 115 2.3 .210 .290 .350 78 0.6
Josh Jung .274 .328 .513 128 2.1 .221 .273 .392 84 0.5
Sam Huff .250 .305 .461 109 2.3 .192 .251 .346 65 0.2
Ezequiel Duran .267 .311 .466 112 2.6 .219 .265 .370 74 0.0
Yohel Pozo .304 .324 .473 116 2.1 .245 .268 .371 75 0.2
Bubba Thompson .264 .306 .413 94 1.5 .213 .256 .327 60 -0.6
Zach Reks .269 .344 .473 122 1.3 .214 .288 .374 83 -0.4
Eli White .243 .319 .390 94 1.2 .185 .258 .294 52 -0.5
Kellen Strahm .247 .332 .369 92 1.1 .195 .276 .279 55 -0.6
Jonathan Ornelas .254 .300 .371 83 1.3 .206 .253 .299 54 -0.6
Trevor Hauver .237 .349 .396 104 1.3 .181 .290 .294 65 -0.8
Ryan Dorow .252 .321 .387 93 1.2 .195 .266 .294 54 -0.8
Aaron Zavala .255 .359 .399 110 1.4 .199 .306 .305 70 -0.9
Dustin Harris .278 .336 .456 115 1.1 .226 .289 .360 80 -0.8
Sandro Fabian .272 .313 .442 105 1.1 .216 .258 .336 64 -0.7
Blaine Crim .279 .325 .448 111 1.3 .228 .278 .354 75 -1.0
Evan Carter .246 .335 .385 98 1.1 .195 .283 .296 62 -0.9
Kevin Plawecki .272 .337 .366 96 0.6 .210 .280 .280 56 -0.4
Davis Wendzel .237 .313 .408 96 0.9 .181 .253 .301 54 -0.9
J.P. Martinez .238 .312 .394 93 1.0 .183 .258 .292 54 -1.2
Scott Kapers .222 .311 .365 85 0.5 .160 .256 .255 42 -0.5
Jayce Easley .238 .343 .325 86 0.6 .183 .288 .243 50 -0.7
Joe McCarthy .247 .331 .418 105 0.7 .191 .271 .319 63 -0.9
Jax Biggers .254 .303 .342 78 0.4 .196 .245 .257 40 -0.9
Thomas Saggese .254 .304 .419 98 0.7 .205 .256 .328 62 -1.2
Brad Miller .238 .315 .445 107 0.5 .185 .264 .331 66 -1.1
Diosbel Arias .259 .315 .358 86 0.6 .207 .265 .285 53 -1.2
Sherten Apostel .219 .296 .367 82 0.1 .170 .244 .275 44 -0.9
Frainyer Chavez .247 .318 .312 75 0.3 .198 .270 .247 47 -1.0
Charlie Culberson .265 .307 .410 98 0.1 .209 .254 .312 58 -0.9
Matt Whatley .234 .301 .322 71 0.2 .172 .235 .237 32 -1.0
Kole Calhoun .232 .308 .426 102 0.7 .176 .253 .313 58 -1.4
David Garcia .245 .288 .340 73 0.1 .188 .235 .256 37 -1.3
Jack Kruger .259 .306 .336 77 0.0 .192 .239 .253 36 -1.3
Cody Freeman .254 .320 .379 91 0.2 .193 .259 .281 51 -1.9
Luisangel Acuña .251 .315 .385 90 -0.2 .205 .265 .295 56 -2.1
Elier Hernandez .251 .300 .404 92 -0.1 .204 .248 .310 54 -2.0
Angel Aponte .251 .314 .366 87 -0.9 .198 .260 .270 50 -2.1
Yosy Galan .218 .282 .431 92 -0.7 .159 .225 .315 46 -2.9
Chris Seise .217 .275 .335 68 -0.9 .170 .223 .253 34 -2.5

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Jacob deGrom R 35 8 3 2.59 17 17 100.7 72 29 10 20 138
Chase Lee R 24 2 2 3.51 50 0 56.3 49 22 5 18 58
Brett Martin L 28 4 3 3.58 57 1 55.3 55 22 5 16 46
José Leclerc R 29 3 2 3.81 53 0 59.0 47 25 6 28 68
Brock Burke L 26 5 5 3.92 38 8 78.0 68 34 9 27 79
Jon Gray R 31 8 7 3.96 23 23 127.3 112 56 15 42 128
Josh Sborz R 29 3 2 3.99 44 1 47.3 41 21 5 22 56
Lucas Jacobsen L 27 1 1 4.03 29 2 29.0 23 13 3 16 36
Marc Church R 22 4 5 4.13 39 0 52.3 46 24 8 17 62
Martín Pérez L 32 8 9 4.13 29 27 159.0 158 73 18 55 131
Andrew Heaney L 32 5 5 4.14 21 18 91.3 80 42 14 26 112
John King L 28 4 4 4.21 42 2 62.0 64 29 7 17 43
Spencer Patton R 35 2 3 4.30 35 0 37.7 35 18 4 18 37
Yerry Rodriguez R 25 3 3 4.34 40 10 66.3 62 32 7 30 64
Daniel Robert R 28 3 3 4.41 32 0 34.7 32 17 5 18 38
Cody Bradford L 25 6 8 4.42 23 23 106.0 107 52 15 30 91
Nick Snyder R 27 2 1 4.42 39 1 36.7 34 18 5 16 38
Jonathan Hernández R 26 5 5 4.43 38 6 65.0 61 32 7 35 63
Joe Barlow R 27 2 3 4.44 46 0 46.7 39 23 6 23 46
Owen White R 23 6 7 4.47 17 16 88.7 84 44 12 32 81
Cole Ragans L 25 6 7 4.49 24 24 110.3 107 55 14 44 97
Jesus Tinoco R 28 2 2 4.58 46 2 59.0 56 30 8 27 52
Zak Kent R 25 3 5 4.58 22 20 94.3 95 48 13 35 82
Matt Moore L 34 3 4 4.61 43 6 68.3 62 35 10 32 68
Grant Anderson R 26 2 3 4.65 42 0 60.0 57 31 8 25 58
Bradford Webb R 25 3 4 4.68 22 7 57.7 57 30 7 27 50
Dane Dunning R 28 5 6 4.73 26 25 133.3 135 70 19 48 122
Avery Weems L 26 3 5 4.74 23 16 81.7 81 43 12 29 77
Taylor Hearn L 28 5 7 4.76 32 12 96.3 92 51 14 40 93
Spencer Howard R 26 5 6 4.79 22 18 82.7 79 44 12 33 81
Ryder Ryan R 28 3 5 4.80 41 0 50.7 48 27 6 26 46
Tim Brennan R 26 4 5 4.81 18 14 67.3 73 36 9 16 39
Fernery Ozuna R 27 3 3 4.83 42 0 54.0 52 29 7 20 49
Jake Odorizzi R 33 5 8 4.84 21 21 100.3 103 54 17 36 87
Hever Bueno R 28 2 3 4.87 29 0 40.7 39 22 5 25 40
Glenn Otto R 27 6 9 4.93 25 24 118.7 114 65 17 50 108
Justin Anderson R 30 1 1 4.96 36 0 32.7 29 18 5 21 38
Garrett Richards R 35 3 4 4.99 27 10 70.3 76 39 11 28 58
Jake Latz L 27 3 4 5.00 19 13 66.7 66 37 10 34 61
Tyler Thomas L 27 1 3 5.04 27 0 44.7 43 25 6 23 41
Grant Wolfram L 26 2 3 5.04 29 5 55.3 53 31 8 35 56
Cole Winn R 23 6 9 5.10 26 26 113.0 108 64 14 70 99
Nick Starr R 26 1 3 5.10 27 0 30.0 31 17 5 14 26
Dallas Keuchel L 35 5 7 5.13 19 19 93.0 107 53 12 40 65
Jack Leiter R 23 5 8 5.13 23 22 94.7 90 54 14 52 88
Drew Strotman R 26 4 5 4.80 30 10 69.3 70 37 8 39 62
Steve Villines R 27 2 3 5.21 25 0 38.0 42 22 6 15 24
Nick Tropeano R 32 2 3 5.25 16 7 48.0 48 28 7 27 41
Joe Corbett R 26 2 3 5.27 34 0 41.0 40 24 7 19 38
Noah Bremer R 27 2 4 5.40 15 9 51.7 57 31 9 22 38
Justin Slaten R 25 3 5 5.43 21 9 56.3 56 34 9 33 55
Antoine Kelly L 23 2 4 5.50 24 22 91.7 80 56 11 72 97
Ricky Vanasco R 24 3 4 5.53 22 22 81.3 79 50 14 54 81
Kohei Arihara R 30 3 7 5.55 19 16 73.0 81 45 13 25 50
Jason Bahr R 28 2 4 5.56 19 7 55.0 55 34 8 35 48
Greg Holland R 37 1 4 5.97 37 0 34.7 35 23 8 17 33
Tyree Thompson R 26 0 1 6.87 11 1 18.3 19 14 3 14 12

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Jacob deGrom 100.7 12.3 1.8 0.9 5.1% 35.5% .282 165 2.36 61 3.0
Chase Lee 56.3 9.3 2.9 0.8 7.7% 24.8% .291 122 3.37 82 0.7
Brett Martin 55.3 7.5 2.6 0.8 6.8% 19.4% .301 120 3.59 84 0.7
José Leclerc 59.0 10.4 4.3 0.9 11.1% 27.0% .281 112 3.85 89 0.6
Brock Burke 78.0 9.1 3.1 1.0 8.3% 24.2% .282 109 3.82 92 1.1
Jon Gray 127.3 9.0 3.0 1.1 7.9% 24.1% .284 108 3.78 93 2.0
Josh Sborz 47.3 10.6 4.2 1.0 10.6% 27.1% .303 107 3.55 93 0.4
Lucas Jacobsen 29.0 11.2 5.0 0.9 12.5% 28.1% .290 106 3.67 94 0.3
Marc Church 52.3 10.7 2.9 1.4 7.7% 28.1% .292 104 3.86 97 0.3
Martín Pérez 159.0 7.4 3.1 1.0 8.1% 19.2% .295 103 4.13 97 2.1
Andrew Heaney 91.3 11.0 2.6 1.4 6.9% 29.8% .297 103 3.74 97 1.2
John King 62.0 6.2 2.5 1.0 6.4% 16.3% .292 102 4.20 98 0.4
Spencer Patton 37.7 8.8 4.3 1.0 10.9% 22.4% .298 99 4.08 101 0.1
Yerry Rodriguez 66.3 8.7 4.1 0.9 10.4% 22.2% .297 98 4.13 102 0.6
Daniel Robert 34.7 9.9 4.7 1.3 11.7% 24.7% .297 97 4.48 103 0.0
Cody Bradford 106.0 7.7 2.5 1.3 6.7% 20.3% .296 97 4.24 103 1.2
Nick Snyder 36.7 9.3 3.9 1.2 9.9% 23.5% .293 97 4.24 103 0.2
Jonathan Hernández 65.0 8.7 4.8 1.0 11.9% 21.4% .297 97 4.37 104 0.5
Joe Barlow 46.7 8.9 4.4 1.2 11.4% 22.9% .266 96 4.46 104 0.1
Owen White 88.7 8.2 3.2 1.2 8.4% 21.3% .287 96 4.24 104 1.0
Cole Ragans 110.3 7.9 3.6 1.1 9.2% 20.3% .292 95 4.35 105 1.1
Jesus Tinoco 59.0 7.9 4.1 1.2 10.4% 20.1% .284 93 4.63 107 0.1
Zak Kent 94.3 7.8 3.3 1.2 8.6% 20.0% .297 93 4.41 107 0.9
Matt Moore 68.3 9.0 4.2 1.3 10.7% 22.8% .283 93 4.56 108 0.4
Grant Anderson 60.0 8.7 3.8 1.2 9.5% 22.1% .293 92 4.45 109 0.0
Bradford Webb 57.7 7.8 4.2 1.1 10.7% 19.8% .296 91 4.51 109 0.4
Dane Dunning 133.3 8.2 3.2 1.3 8.3% 21.0% .301 91 4.46 110 1.0
Avery Weems 81.7 8.5 3.2 1.3 8.2% 21.8% .299 90 4.46 111 0.7
Taylor Hearn 96.3 8.7 3.7 1.3 9.5% 22.2% .292 90 4.45 111 0.6
Spencer Howard 82.7 8.8 3.6 1.3 9.2% 22.6% .294 89 4.42 112 0.6
Ryder Ryan 50.7 8.2 4.6 1.1 11.5% 20.4% .292 89 4.65 112 -0.2
Tim Brennan 67.3 5.2 2.1 1.2 5.6% 13.6% .290 89 4.76 113 0.5
Fernery Ozuna 54.0 8.2 3.3 1.2 8.6% 21.0% .292 88 4.58 113 -0.2
Jake Odorizzi 100.3 7.8 3.2 1.5 8.3% 20.0% .294 88 4.79 113 0.6
Hever Bueno 40.7 8.9 5.5 1.1 13.3% 21.3% .301 88 4.70 114 -0.1
Glenn Otto 118.7 8.2 3.8 1.3 9.7% 20.8% .288 87 4.64 115 0.7
Justin Anderson 32.7 10.5 5.8 1.4 14.1% 25.5% .293 86 4.84 116 -0.1
Garrett Richards 70.3 7.4 3.6 1.4 8.9% 18.5% .305 86 4.86 117 0.2
Jake Latz 66.7 8.2 4.6 1.4 11.4% 20.5% .295 86 4.89 117 0.3
Tyler Thomas 44.7 8.3 4.6 1.2 11.6% 20.6% .291 85 4.94 118 -0.2
Grant Wolfram 55.3 9.1 5.7 1.3 13.7% 21.9% .298 85 5.07 118 0.0
Cole Winn 113.0 7.9 5.6 1.1 13.5% 19.1% .288 84 5.03 119 0.5
Nick Starr 30.0 7.8 4.2 1.5 10.2% 19.0% .295 84 5.09 119 -0.2
Dallas Keuchel 93.0 6.3 3.9 1.2 9.4% 15.3% .315 83 4.85 120 0.3
Jack Leiter 94.7 8.4 4.9 1.3 12.3% 20.8% .287 83 5.12 120 0.3
Drew Strotman 69.3 8.0 5.1 1.0 12.3% 19.6% .305 84 4.73 120 0.3
Steve Villines 38.0 5.7 3.6 1.4 8.8% 14.1% .293 82 5.28 122 -0.3
Nick Tropeano 48.0 7.7 5.1 1.3 12.4% 18.9% .293 81 5.15 123 0.0
Joe Corbett 41.0 8.3 4.2 1.5 10.4% 20.8% .287 81 5.20 123 -0.4
Noah Bremer 51.7 6.6 3.8 1.6 9.4% 16.3% .298 79 5.46 126 0.0
Justin Slaten 56.3 8.8 5.3 1.4 12.8% 21.3% .299 79 5.14 127 0.0
Antoine Kelly 91.7 9.5 7.1 1.1 16.8% 22.6% .286 78 5.38 129 0.0
Ricky Vanasco 81.3 9.0 6.0 1.5 14.4% 21.6% .293 77 5.46 129 0.0
Kohei Arihara 73.0 6.2 3.1 1.6 7.8% 15.6% .294 77 5.37 130 -0.1
Jason Bahr 55.0 7.9 5.7 1.3 13.7% 18.8% .294 77 5.43 130 -0.1
Greg Holland 34.7 8.6 4.4 2.1 10.8% 20.9% .281 72 5.81 140 -0.6
Tyree Thompson 18.3 5.9 6.9 1.5 15.9% 13.6% .276 62 6.59 161 -0.4

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Jacob deGrom Max Scherzer Whit Wyatt Grover Alexander 3.9 2.2 1.78 3.48
Chase Lee Luis Ayala Juan Pablo Menchaca Mark Melancon 1.2 0.1 2.77 4.52
Brett Martin Jim Faulkner Luis Quintana Ron Meridith 1.1 0.2 2.94 4.16
José Leclerc Evan Meek 에반 Shawn Armstrong Fernando Rodney 1.2 -0.1 3.09 4.89
Brock Burke Gary Lucas Vic Lombardi Joe Price 1.8 0.3 3.17 4.85
Jon Gray Jack Sanford Jeff Samardzija Bob Feller 2.8 1.1 3.46 4.58
Josh Sborz Jason Stoffel Kam Mickolio Santiago Casilla 0.8 -0.2 3.25 5.08
Lucas Jacobsen Mike Stanton John Henry Johnson Jason Christiansen 0.6 -0.1 3.13 5.23
Marc Church Tim Peek Santos Hernandez Kurt Yacko 0.9 -0.3 3.18 5.13
Martín Pérez Jose Quintana Frank Viola CC Sabathia 3.0 0.9 3.64 4.91
Andrew Heaney Ray Sadecki Preacher Roe Art Nehf 1.9 0.3 3.50 5.12
John King Steve Prihoda Judd Johnson Geno Espineli 0.8 -0.1 3.63 4.80
Spencer Patton Jim Lindsey Jason Childers Gregg Olson 0.5 -0.4 3.49 5.55
Yerry Rodriguez Raul Sanchez John Noriega Jack Morris 1.1 0.1 3.81 5.07
Daniel Robert Fred Lasher Adam Jorgenson Eric Broersma 0.3 -0.3 3.83 5.36
Cody Bradford Paul Ah Yat Alex Delgado Chris Cody 1.9 0.4 3.83 5.14
Nick Snyder Zech Zinicola Dave Gerard Derrick Miramontes 0.5 -0.2 3.72 5.53
Jonathan Hernández Darryl Scott Nate Jones Bob Buhl 1.0 -0.2 3.82 5.27
Joe Barlow Dave Campbell Chris Perez Charlie Hough 0.5 -0.4 3.85 5.45
Owen White Edgar Ramos Dave Frost Mike Slade 1.6 0.3 3.92 5.20
Cole Ragans Mario Ramos Pete Schourek Chris Peters 1.9 0.3 3.93 5.14
Jesus Tinoco Steve Ridzik Austin Maddox Federico Castaneda 0.6 -0.4 4.00 5.42
Zak Kent Adam Bass Marcel Guilbault Brad Meyers 1.5 0.3 4.05 5.22
Matt Moore Don Ferrarese Valerio De Los Santos Rigo Beltran 1.1 -0.5 3.84 5.81
Grant Anderson Bob Link Todd Ritchie Willie Blair 0.4 -0.5 4.00 5.41
Bradford Webb Chris Johnson Juan Arias Jim Mecir 0.8 0.0 4.19 5.35
Dane Dunning Tim Redding 레딩 Chris Heston Ryan Drese 1.9 0.1 4.14 5.45
Avery Weems Eddie Guardado Paul Oseguera Paul Lindblad 1.3 -0.1 4.11 5.61
Taylor Hearn Tyler Alexander Cody Reed Roger Bowman 1.3 -0.3 4.06 5.68
Spencer Howard Jonathan Hurst Wayland Dean Jim Austin 1.2 -0.1 4.18 5.50
Ryder Ryan Bruce Dal Canton Todd Erdos Mike Bumstead 0.3 -0.6 4.09 5.64
Tim Brennan Ruddy Acosta Greg Holle Juan Jimenez 0.8 0.1 4.35 5.31
Fernery Ozuna Bob Link Justin Pope Frank Bolick 0.3 -0.6 4.09 5.66
Jake Odorizzi Saul Rogovin Sam Gray Dave Mlicki 1.2 -0.2 4.30 5.83
Hever Bueno Cody Eppley Eder Llamas Jesus Delgado 0.2 -0.6 4.24 5.86
Glenn Otto Kyle Davies Jimmy Ring Dave Freisleben 1.5 -0.2 4.34 5.64
Justin Anderson Jesse Hickman Denny Bautista 바티스타 Reggie Harris 0.2 -0.5 3.92 6.23
Garrett Richards Jose Mercedes Earl Harrist Claudio Vargas 0.6 -0.3 4.34 5.99
Jake Latz Chris Narveson Don Corella Rob Henkel 0.8 -0.3 4.38 5.93
Tyler Thomas Morrie Steevens David Sanders Randolph Hopkins 0.1 -0.6 4.29 5.75
Grant Wolfram Lee Hancock Casey DeHart Gregg Langbehn 0.5 -0.5 4.39 5.85
Cole Winn Blue Moon Odom Charlie Haeger Daniel Corcino 1.1 -0.5 4.62 5.86
Nick Starr Dan Brown Bucky Buckles Scooter Cushman 0.0 -0.5 4.44 6.00
Dallas Keuchel Roberto Ramirez Clayton Richard Mark Redman 0.9 -0.3 4.52 5.86
Jack Leiter Jonathan Hernandez Anthony Ranaudo 레나도 Justin Haley 헤일리 1.0 -0.4 4.61 5.85
Drew Strotman Tanyon Sturtze Dean Freeland Ike Pettaway 0.7 -0.4 4.30 5.65
Steve Villines Mark Teutsch Melvin Mercedes Jim Hickey -0.1 -0.5 4.72 5.92
Nick Tropeano Ron Piche Jim Wright Craig McMurtry 0.4 -0.4 4.60 6.18
Joe Corbett Earl Cash Chris Squires Jordan Conley 0.0 -0.7 4.52 6.03
Noah Bremer Jerry Magness Eric Boudreaux James Raynor 0.3 -0.4 4.84 6.09
Justin Slaten Nick McCully Wray Bergendahl Jonathan Joseph 0.4 -0.5 4.76 6.19
Antoine Kelly Terry Mulholland Franklin Morales Drew Hall 0.8 -0.9 4.77 6.36
Ricky Vanasco Larry McDowell Hunter Wood Justin Dunn 0.7 -0.7 4.83 6.34
Kohei Arihara Jack Fisher Mike Harkey Wayne Lundgren 0.3 -0.6 5.03 6.23
Jason Bahr Nick Pasquale Ryan Perry Eduardo Paulino 0.4 -0.7 4.79 6.55
Greg Holland Stan Bahnsen Ray Moore Doug Bair -0.2 -1.1 4.76 7.99

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

27 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Ivan_Grushenkomember
1 month ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

Texas should have signed him based on your recommendation. Their loss.