2022 ZiPS Projections: Los Angeles Dodgers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Batters

What can you say about the Dodgers? Most of the lineup from last year is returning, and most of that lineup is very, very good. That a 106-win season can feel slightly disappointing comes down to how the San Francisco Giants played rather than how the Dodgers did. The projected lineup ranges from average to MVP-worthy, with no apparent holes.

Thanks to the trade that brought Trea Turner to LA, the question of what to do at shortstop over the long haul was put off for another year. The Dodgers didn’t really seem to make any kind of a big push to bring back Corey Seager, but that’s a testament to just how awesome Turner is. There are only two shortstops in baseball I’d rather have on a long-term contract: Fernando Tatis Jr., and Wander Franco. Suffice it to say, the Dodgers do not — and will not — have access to either of those two young stars. Even in the worst-case scenario, though, a Turner departure after 2022 would result in the team temporarily having a Chris Taylor–Gavin Lux middle infield. That’s still likely a roughly average pair, not a major disaster.

There are still a few long-term questions to answer. Justin Turner is in the twilight of his career, and while ZiPS still has him as solidly average, a falloff isn’t impossible at his age. Max Muncy and AJ Pollock are both on the wrong side of 30, and the latter has quite a lengthy injury history. There are also genuine concerns about Cody Bellinger given his last couple of seasons. I have absolutely no idea what kind of player he really is right now; I wouldn’t be surprised by anything between Ken Griffey Jr. and Craig Griffey. In other words, the lineup is great, but it’s not perfect.

The Dodgers are pretty insulated by nasty surprises in 2022, however, which limits the worry about any of these things. Their stable of tertiary players is as deep as that from Arrested Development — I love me some Gene Parmesan and J. Walter Weatherman — and the minors have even more of them, with Andy Pages, Michael Busch, and Miguel Vargas all potential contributors. ZiPS is also quite intrigued by Eddys Leonard, a largely under-the-radar prospect who was terrific in A-ball at age 20.

The lineup will score a lot of runs and has a very high floor.

Pitchers

On paper, the rotation still looks excellent, though not as elite as it did entering last season. I do admit to a certain amount of uneasiness about the depth here, especially relative to that of the lineup. Few people doubt Walker Buehler and Julio Urías, but there are simply a lot of unanswered questions after that. ZiPS probably saw the same thing that the Dodgers saw in Andrew Heaney despite an awful season, but how convinced are we about Tony Gonsolin? Or David Price back in a full-time starting role? Or Dustin May’s healthy return? Trevor Bauer might end up back on the team and be a 4-WAR pitcher, but given the highly distressing allegations against him (and the potential resulting legal consequences), he also might not pitch for the Dodgers (or anyone else) ever again; the criminal justice results are obviously more critical to society, but the Dodgers do have some decisions to make.

Now, maybe the Dodgers will actively pick up starting pitching when the offseason resumes. But right now, I have concerns.

As for the bullpen, I have far fewer issues. The bullpen is varied and deep and will project as one of the best by ZiPS, even with Kenley Jansen likely gone. There’s something for everyone, from the bog-standard elite closer (Blake Treinen) to the hard thrower with upside (Brusdar Graterol) to a couple of solid lefties, and everything in between. If I’m not miscounting, ZiPS has the Dodgers currently employing 14 relievers with a projected ERA+ of 100 or better, with a couple other possibilities in repurposed starting pitchers.

With one start in two years, ZiPS still has love for Cole Hamels.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.