2022 ZiPS Projections: Los Angeles Dodgers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Batters

What can you say about the Dodgers? Most of the lineup from last year is returning, and most of that lineup is very, very good. That a 106-win season can feel slightly disappointing comes down to how the San Francisco Giants played rather than how the Dodgers did. The projected lineup ranges from average to MVP-worthy, with no apparent holes.

Thanks to the trade that brought Trea Turner to LA, the question of what to do at shortstop over the long haul was put off for another year. The Dodgers didn’t really seem to make any kind of a big push to bring back Corey Seager, but that’s a testament to just how awesome Turner is. There are only two shortstops in baseball I’d rather have on a long-term contract: Fernando Tatis Jr., and Wander Franco. Suffice it to say, the Dodgers do not — and will not — have access to either of those two young stars. Even in the worst-case scenario, though, a Turner departure after 2022 would result in the team temporarily having a Chris TaylorGavin Lux middle infield. That’s still likely a roughly average pair, not a major disaster.

There are still a few long-term questions to answer. Justin Turner is in the twilight of his career, and while ZiPS still has him as solidly average, a falloff isn’t impossible at his age. Max Muncy and AJ Pollock are both on the wrong side of 30, and the latter has quite a lengthy injury history. There are also genuine concerns about Cody Bellinger given his last couple of seasons. I have absolutely no idea what kind of player he really is right now; I wouldn’t be surprised by anything between Ken Griffey Jr. and Craig Griffey. In other words, the lineup is great, but it’s not perfect.

The Dodgers are pretty insulated by nasty surprises in 2022, however, which limits the worry about any of these things. Their stable of tertiary players is as deep as that from Arrested Development — I love me some Gene Parmesan and J. Walter Weatherman — and the minors have even more of them, with Andy Pages, Michael Busch, and Miguel Vargas all potential contributors. ZiPS is also quite intrigued by Eddys Leonard, a largely under-the-radar prospect who was terrific in A-ball at age 20.

The lineup will score a lot of runs and has a very high floor.

Pitchers

On paper, the rotation still looks excellent, though not as elite as it did entering last season. I do admit to a certain amount of uneasiness about the depth here, especially relative to that of the lineup. Few people doubt Walker Buehler and Julio Urías, but there are simply a lot of unanswered questions after that. ZiPS probably saw the same thing that the Dodgers saw in Andrew Heaney despite an awful season, but how convinced are we about Tony Gonsolin? Or David Price back in a full-time starting role? Or Dustin May’s healthy return? Trevor Bauer might end up back on the team and be a 4-WAR pitcher, but given the highly distressing allegations against him (and the potential resulting legal consequences), he also might not pitch for the Dodgers (or anyone else) ever again; the criminal justice results are obviously more critical to society, but the Dodgers do have some decisions to make.

Now, maybe the Dodgers will actively pick up starting pitching when the offseason resumes. But right now, I have concerns.

As for the bullpen, I have far fewer issues. The bullpen is varied and deep and will project as one of the best by ZiPS, even with Kenley Jansen likely gone. There’s something for everyone, from the bog-standard elite closer (Blake Treinen) to the hard thrower with upside (Brusdar Graterol) to a couple of solid lefties, and everything in between. If I’m not miscounting, ZiPS has the Dodgers currently employing 14 relievers with a projected ERA+ of 100 or better, with a couple other possibilities in repurposed starting pitchers.

With one start in two years, ZiPS still has love for Cole Hamels.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Trea Turner R 29 SS 639 588 101 177 32 4 28 84 43 113 32 6
Mookie Betts R 29 RF 601 515 107 147 31 3 27 75 73 90 17 5
Will Smith R 27 C 484 410 70 105 21 2 27 87 56 108 3 0
Max Muncy L 31 1B 539 450 85 111 21 2 32 99 79 129 3 1
Cody Bellinger L 26 CF 507 444 74 109 22 3 25 84 58 120 11 2
Justin Turner R 37 3B 530 466 70 123 19 0 19 73 47 87 3 0
Miguel Vargas R 22 3B 577 530 67 139 26 2 19 69 33 108 8 1
Gavin Lux L 24 SS 529 474 71 115 21 6 16 70 51 123 6 2
Chris Taylor R 31 CF 532 469 75 117 27 4 18 73 52 151 10 2
AJ Pollock R 34 LF 405 370 51 99 21 1 19 67 25 84 6 1
Luke Raley L 27 RF 387 348 48 82 12 2 18 56 21 112 6 1
Andy Pages R 21 CF 534 478 68 108 19 1 27 96 40 157 4 2
Sheldon Neuse R 27 2B 509 471 58 116 21 2 16 61 31 146 5 1
Zach McKinstry L 27 2B 402 366 45 86 17 3 14 55 29 101 5 5
Eddys Leonard R 21 SS 502 464 58 107 18 2 20 64 31 136 5 2
Brandon Lewis R 23 3B 452 420 48 91 14 1 24 74 25 142 2 1
Rangel Ravelo R 30 1B 319 287 39 74 14 1 10 43 25 57 0 1
Austin Barnes R 32 C 268 234 33 49 10 0 7 28 26 67 3 1
Andy Burns R 31 3B 347 310 39 70 12 1 11 38 32 82 7 3
Michael Busch L 24 2B 492 436 61 97 21 1 18 60 42 144 1 2
Tomás Telis B 31 1B 415 395 51 110 13 1 9 44 16 54 3 1
Elliot Soto R 32 SS 330 301 38 71 12 3 4 26 24 75 4 2
Tony Wolters L 30 C 316 278 35 61 10 1 4 32 26 69 1 2
Carson Taylor B 23 C 361 329 49 80 13 0 11 44 25 75 1 0
Matt Beaty L 29 LF 324 293 42 75 16 1 8 50 22 55 3 1
Jacob Amaya R 23 SS 509 465 58 100 19 2 12 52 35 114 4 1
Ryan Noda L 26 1B 467 404 55 80 17 1 19 66 50 162 4 1
Steven Souza Jr. R 33 RF 242 215 24 45 9 2 9 30 22 77 3 1
Tim Federowicz R 34 C 177 162 15 33 7 0 5 16 11 51 0 0
Clayton Daniel R 27 2B 229 210 25 48 8 1 3 19 16 42 1 2
Jason Martin L 26 LF 387 354 44 81 15 3 13 53 28 96 6 5
Justin Yurchak L 25 1B 385 346 50 87 15 1 9 41 29 87 1 1
James Outman L 25 CF 494 452 47 90 14 3 17 48 35 157 11 4
Kekai Rios R 25 C 148 135 15 26 5 0 3 12 10 44 1 0
Carlos Asuaje L 30 2B 281 253 33 58 10 2 4 26 22 48 3 1
Edwin Ríos L 28 1B 403 364 50 78 18 2 21 60 29 149 1 2
Hunter Feduccia L 25 C 319 288 37 64 12 1 8 34 26 76 1 1
Drew Avans L 26 LF 335 302 39 67 11 2 8 32 28 93 15 4
Andrew Toles R 30 LF 149 141 16 33 7 1 3 16 6 34 2 2
Albert Pujols R 42 1B 324 301 29 71 9 0 13 55 16 50 2 0
Leonel Valera R 22 SS 461 430 48 83 13 2 16 54 24 161 11 3
Omar Estévez R 24 2B 418 377 45 77 17 1 9 40 31 118 0 1
Kody Hoese R 24 3B 299 277 34 57 10 1 6 27 15 71 2 1
Aldrich De Jongh L 23 LF 232 219 23 44 8 1 7 22 11 75 3 1
Jeren Kendall L 26 CF 336 306 33 49 8 3 12 37 26 148 12 6
Devin Mann R 25 1B 439 391 51 84 18 1 13 51 33 119 3 3
Hamlet Marte R 28 C 210 192 19 34 6 1 5 19 14 78 1 1
Deacon Liput L 26 2B 370 345 33 64 9 2 11 36 21 137 7 3

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Trea Turner .301 .352 .512 129 .211 .333 7.4 -1 5.5 Barry Larkin
Mookie Betts .285 .378 .515 138 .229 .302 7.5 9 5.3 Bob Elliott
Will Smith .256 .355 .515 131 .259 .284 6.7 2 4.3 Darrell Porter
Max Muncy .247 .367 .516 135 .269 .273 6.8 1 3.6 Mike Epstein
Cody Bellinger .245 .333 .477 115 .232 .281 5.9 2 3.1 Gary Geiger
Justin Turner .264 .343 .427 107 .163 .289 5.5 -3 2.3 Mike Lowell
Miguel Vargas .262 .309 .426 96 .164 .298 4.9 3 2.2 Willy Aybar
Gavin Lux .243 .318 .414 95 .171 .296 4.7 -1 2.0 Rance Mulliniks
Chris Taylor .249 .330 .439 105 .190 .330 5.3 -6 1.9 Claudell Washington
AJ Pollock .268 .321 .484 113 .216 .300 5.8 0 1.7 Glenallen Hill
Luke Raley .236 .306 .437 97 .201 .294 4.8 7 1.6 Bubba Carpenter
Andy Pages .226 .299 .439 96 .213 .276 4.6 -4 1.4 Matt Holliday
Sheldon Neuse .246 .294 .401 85 .155 .324 4.3 1 1.2 Juan Melo
Zach McKinstry .235 .297 .413 89 .178 .287 4.2 0 0.9 Boi Rodriguez
Eddys Leonard .231 .287 .407 85 .177 .282 4.1 -5 0.8 Tommy Whiteman
Brandon Lewis .217 .266 .426 83 .210 .264 3.9 2 0.8 Jose Valdez
Rangel Ravelo .258 .326 .418 99 .160 .291 4.9 1 0.7 Ruben Amaro
Austin Barnes .209 .301 .342 73 .132 .263 3.6 3 0.7 Erik Pappas
Andy Burns .226 .301 .377 82 .152 .272 4.0 0 0.6 Steve Lombardozzi
Michael Busch .222 .301 .399 87 .177 .288 4.1 -6 0.5 Dave Baker
Tomás Telis .278 .309 .385 86 .106 .304 4.5 4 0.5 Aaron Miles
Elliot Soto .236 .298 .336 71 .100 .302 3.5 1 0.5 Tony Taylor
Tony Wolters .219 .299 .306 64 .086 .278 3.1 3 0.4 Doug Newstrom
Carson Taylor .243 .296 .383 82 .140 .284 4.1 -5 0.4 Eric Christopherson
Matt Beaty .256 .327 .399 95 .143 .291 4.8 -5 0.2 Derrick May
Jacob Amaya .215 .271 .342 64 .127 .260 3.2 2 0.2 Trevor Plouffe
Ryan Noda .198 .295 .386 82 .188 .274 3.9 2 0.2 Chris Weinke
Steven Souza Jr. .209 .290 .395 83 .186 .279 4.0 1 0.1 Jeff Guiel
Tim Federowicz .204 .257 .340 59 .136 .264 3.0 2 0.1 George Mitterwald
Clayton Daniel .229 .285 .319 63 .090 .273 3.0 3 0.1 Erik Laseke
Jason Martin .229 .286 .398 82 .169 .278 3.9 2 0.1 Phil Dauphin
Justin Yurchak .251 .310 .379 85 .127 .312 4.2 -1 0.0 Francisco Melendez
James Outman .199 .265 .356 66 .157 .263 3.3 1 0.0 Choo Freeman
Kekai Rios .193 .252 .296 48 .104 .261 2.6 2 -0.1 J.C. Boscan
Carlos Asuaje .229 .296 .332 70 .103 .269 3.5 -2 -0.1 Kelvin Chapman
Edwin Ríos .214 .280 .448 92 .234 .294 4.2 -5 -0.2 Oreste Marrero
Hunter Feduccia .222 .287 .354 72 .132 .275 3.5 -6 -0.2 Scott Hatteberg
Drew Avans .222 .290 .351 72 .129 .294 3.8 -1 -0.2 Mark Budzinski
Andrew Toles .234 .268 .362 68 .128 .288 3.3 0 -0.3 Shawn Garrett
Albert Pujols .236 .281 .395 80 .159 .244 4.0 -2 -0.4 Harmon Killebrew
Leonel Valera .193 .243 .344 56 .151 .265 2.9 -2 -0.6 J.J. Furmaniak
Omar Estévez .204 .265 .326 59 .122 .272 2.9 -1 -0.7 John Hattig
Kody Hoese .206 .249 .314 51 .108 .255 2.7 0 -0.7 Mark Farris
Aldrich De Jongh .201 .241 .342 55 .142 .270 2.8 0 -0.8 Brian Martin
Jeren Kendall .160 .229 .324 47 .163 .253 2.4 1 -0.9 Stephen Chapman
Devin Mann .215 .284 .366 74 .151 .274 3.5 -4 -0.9 Cliff Brumbaugh
Hamlet Marte .177 .234 .297 42 .120 .266 2.2 -5 -1.1 Francisco Morales
Deacon Liput .186 .236 .319 48 .133 .269 2.5 -2 -1.2 Matt Guiliano

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Walker Buehler R 27 12 6 3.23 32 32 189.3 153 68 23 46 205 3.42
Julio Urías L 25 13 7 3.29 32 29 167.0 143 61 20 37 172 3.45
Trevor Bauer R 31 10 6 3.37 22 22 136.0 106 51 18 46 164 3.68
Clayton Kershaw L 34 11 6 3.38 23 23 130.3 111 49 20 27 146 3.60
Cole Hamels L 38 8 6 4.22 27 27 140.7 137 66 24 52 137 4.75
Andrew Heaney L 31 9 7 4.22 27 22 128.0 121 60 24 33 145 4.27
Blake Treinen R 34 7 3 3.14 64 0 63.0 50 22 5 23 72 3.12
David Price L 36 5 4 4.00 29 14 83.3 81 37 13 25 81 4.31
Dustin May R 24 4 3 4.03 16 14 73.7 71 33 10 21 68 4.08
Danny Duffy L 33 6 5 4.32 18 17 91.7 84 44 16 33 99 4.47
Kenley Jansen R 34 5 3 3.28 63 0 60.3 45 22 9 21 83 3.56
Caleb Ferguson L 25 4 2 3.68 58 4 66.0 53 27 9 29 89 3.85
Aaron Wilkerson R 33 6 5 4.55 21 17 91.0 91 46 16 28 85 4.65
Mitch White R 27 5 4 4.38 30 15 88.3 84 43 14 30 87 4.43
Tommy Kahnle R 32 3 2 3.58 64 0 55.3 43 22 9 20 79 3.63
Bobby Miller R 23 2 2 4.11 18 15 57.0 57 26 7 16 47 4.13
Brusdar Graterol R 23 5 2 3.31 53 0 51.7 47 19 4 15 47 3.59
Tony Gonsolin R 28 4 3 4.56 20 18 75.0 68 38 14 33 79 4.90
Andre Jackson R 26 5 5 4.81 25 21 101.0 98 54 15 49 94 4.85
Justin Bruihl L 25 3 2 3.66 44 3 51.7 47 21 6 16 50 3.86
Joe Kelly R 34 2 1 3.27 50 1 44.0 36 16 3 20 51 3.32
Victor González L 26 3 2 4.13 33 7 56.7 55 26 7 22 50 4.40
Clayton Beeter R 23 4 3 4.39 31 30 53.3 50 26 8 22 55 4.47
Ryan Pepiot R 24 7 7 4.92 27 23 100.7 98 55 19 43 101 5.06
Landon Knack R 24 5 4 4.57 17 12 61.0 60 31 9 24 56 4.59
Jimmy Nelson R 33 3 2 3.95 24 4 43.3 34 19 5 25 56 4.10
Darien Núñez L 29 4 3 3.86 34 2 49.0 40 21 7 22 64 3.89
Daniel Hudson R 35 5 3 3.93 54 0 52.7 44 23 8 20 64 3.98
Yefry Ramírez R 28 5 5 5.10 27 20 107.7 108 61 18 49 99 5.07
Alex Vesia L 26 3 2 4.04 46 0 49.0 38 22 8 25 67 4.28
Nick Robertson R 23 3 2 4.23 39 1 55.3 56 26 7 17 46 4.25
Evan Phillips R 27 3 2 4.24 38 1 51.0 46 24 8 24 61 4.47
Phil Bickford R 26 4 3 4.11 54 0 50.3 43 23 8 19 56 4.33
Andrew Vasquez L 28 2 2 4.17 40 0 49.7 42 23 7 28 63 4.35
Justin Hagenman R 25 6 5 4.50 38 2 64.0 65 32 10 20 55 4.57
Nick Tropeano R 31 3 3 5.07 21 11 65.7 68 37 12 27 58 5.16
John Rooney L 25 3 4 5.20 13 11 55.3 56 32 10 29 48 5.58
Guillermo Zuniga R 23 5 4 4.46 28 1 40.3 38 20 6 18 42 4.52
Austin Drury L 24 4 4 4.76 33 3 68.0 70 36 10 27 54 4.83
Neftalí Feliz R 34 3 3 4.50 38 1 40.0 37 20 7 17 46 4.58
Scott Alexander L 32 2 1 4.34 35 0 29.0 29 14 4 12 23 4.73
Marshall Kasowski R 27 2 2 4.67 25 2 27.0 24 14 4 18 30 4.99
Zach McAllister R 34 1 1 4.57 19 1 21.7 22 11 3 6 19 4.20
Aaron Ochsenbein R 26 3 2 4.64 37 1 52.3 52 27 9 20 50 4.82
Garrett Cleavinger L 28 3 3 4.63 33 1 35.0 29 18 5 23 42 4.78
Shane Greene R 33 1 1 4.58 43 0 39.3 37 20 7 14 39 4.81
Jimmie Sherfy R 30 3 2 4.58 36 0 37.3 34 19 6 16 41 4.52
Kevin Quackenbush R 33 4 3 4.60 46 0 45.0 44 23 8 16 47 4.60
Jon Duplantier R 27 2 3 5.55 17 12 48.7 50 30 10 28 46 5.93
Andrew Schwaab R 29 4 3 4.70 43 0 59.3 57 31 8 30 56 4.71
Mike Kickham L 33 2 3 5.46 23 9 57.7 63 35 13 23 48 5.80
Parker Curry R 28 5 5 5.44 27 12 91.0 100 55 21 26 76 5.53
Nate Jones R 36 1 1 5.12 21 0 19.3 20 11 4 9 20 5.51
Yadier Álvarez R 26 1 1 5.87 13 7 30.7 29 20 6 23 33 5.92
Cameron Gibbens R 26 3 3 4.87 37 0 48.0 45 26 8 27 51 5.10
Bobby Wahl R 30 1 1 5.32 26 0 23.7 23 14 4 13 25 5.04
Max Gamboa R 26 4 5 5.49 28 7 59.0 55 36 9 45 64 5.49
Gus Varland R 25 2 3 6.12 14 13 32.3 37 22 7 14 20 6.24
Yaisel Sierra R 31 0 0 5.59 21 0 19.3 21 12 4 8 15 5.71
Michael Grove R 25 2 3 5.76 23 21 75.0 79 48 16 37 70 5.73
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 37 6 7 5.71 20 14 88.3 104 56 20 24 61 5.73
Mark Washington R 26 3 3 5.17 34 1 54.0 55 31 9 27 46 5.31
James Pazos L 31 3 3 5.22 50 1 50.0 50 29 10 24 48 5.42
Edward Cuello R 23 1 1 5.65 24 2 36.7 41 23 7 14 25 5.61
Logan Salow L 27 2 2 5.17 40 0 47.0 43 27 7 32 49 5.20
Carson Fulmer R 28 3 4 5.32 52 4 69.3 68 41 13 39 71 5.52
Ryan Moseley R 27 4 4 5.22 43 1 60.3 63 35 8 35 45 5.35
Jordan Martinson L 25 3 3 5.71 28 1 41.0 45 26 8 21 31 5.96
Cyrillo Watson R 24 3 3 5.59 37 1 46.7 49 29 8 26 38 5.58
Zack Plunkett R 26 2 3 5.52 30 0 44.0 46 27 8 22 37 5.57
Beau Burrows R 25 5 6 5.97 27 12 75.3 84 50 18 35 65 6.07
Melvin Jimenez R 22 3 4 6.04 37 0 50.7 55 34 12 25 44 6.18

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Walker Buehler 9.7 2.2 1.1 6.0% 26.9% .270 133 75 4.6 Dave Stieb
Julio Urías 9.3 2.0 1.1 5.5% 25.4% .279 131 76 3.9 Mark Mulder
Trevor Bauer 10.9 3.0 1.2 8.2% 29.3% .272 127 79 3.1 Roger Clemens
Clayton Kershaw 10.1 1.9 1.4 5.2% 27.9% .277 127 79 3.0 Andy Pettitte
Cole Hamels 8.8 3.3 1.5 8.5% 22.5% .291 102 98 1.9 Al Leiter
Andrew Heaney 10.2 2.3 1.7 6.2% 27.1% .296 102 98 1.7 Sterling Hitchcock
Blake Treinen 10.3 3.3 0.7 8.8% 27.7% .285 137 73 1.2 Roberto Hernandez
David Price 8.7 2.7 1.4 7.1% 22.9% .294 108 93 1.2 Craig Lefferts
Dustin May 8.3 2.6 1.2 6.8% 21.9% .292 107 94 1.2 Paul Dean
Danny Duffy 9.7 3.2 1.6 8.5% 25.4% .286 100 100 1.1 Ted Lilly
Kenley Jansen 12.4 3.1 1.3 8.5% 33.6% .275 131 76 1.1 Troy Percival
Caleb Ferguson 12.1 4.0 1.2 10.3% 31.6% .295 117 86 1.0 Randy Myers
Aaron Wilkerson 8.4 2.8 1.6 7.2% 21.8% .292 95 106 0.9 Travis Smith
Mitch White 8.9 3.1 1.4 8.0% 23.1% .289 98 102 0.9 Scott Bankhead
Tommy Kahnle 12.8 3.3 1.5 8.8% 34.6% .288 120 83 0.9 Skip Lockwood
Bobby Miller 7.4 2.5 1.1 6.6% 19.3% .294 105 95 0.9 John Hope
Brusdar Graterol 8.2 2.6 0.7 6.8% 21.5% .293 130 77 0.8 Cla Meredith
Tony Gonsolin 9.5 4.0 1.7 10.2% 24.5% .277 94 106 0.7 Tony Armas
Andre Jackson 8.4 4.4 1.3 10.9% 21.0% .291 89 112 0.7 J.D. Durbin
Justin Bruihl 8.7 2.8 1.0 7.4% 23.0% .289 118 85 0.7 Steve Howe
Joe Kelly 10.4 4.1 0.6 10.6% 27.1% .297 131 76 0.7 Jeff Nelson
Victor González 7.9 3.5 1.1 8.9% 20.2% .293 104 96 0.6 Ed Olwine
Clayton Beeter 9.3 3.7 1.4 9.5% 23.8% .294 98 102 0.6 Tim Leary
Ryan Pepiot 9.0 3.8 1.7 9.8% 22.9% .289 87 114 0.6 Jimmy Journell
Landon Knack 8.3 3.5 1.3 9.0% 21.1% .293 94 106 0.6 Tom Mastny
Jimmy Nelson 11.6 5.2 1.0 13.2% 29.5% .290 109 92 0.5 Tim Stoddard
Darien Núñez 11.8 4.0 1.3 10.6% 30.8% .292 111 90 0.5 Will Ohman
Daniel Hudson 10.9 3.4 1.4 9.0% 29.0% .283 109 91 0.4 Jose DeLeon
Yefry Ramírez 8.3 4.1 1.5 10.2% 20.7% .294 84 119 0.4 Freddie Toliver
Alex Vesia 12.3 4.6 1.5 11.9% 31.9% .280 106 94 0.3 Neal Cotts
Nick Robertson 7.5 2.8 1.1 7.1% 19.3% .297 102 98 0.3 Brian Barber
Evan Phillips 10.8 4.2 1.4 10.7% 27.2% .299 102 99 0.3 Tom Henke
Phil Bickford 10.0 3.4 1.4 8.9% 26.3% .276 105 96 0.3 Todd Jones
Andrew Vasquez 11.4 5.1 1.3 12.8% 28.8% .297 103 97 0.2 Brian Fuentes
Justin Hagenman 7.7 2.8 1.4 7.3% 20.0% .294 96 105 0.2 Jerry Spradlin
Nick Tropeano 7.9 3.7 1.6 9.3% 20.0% .295 85 118 0.2 Neil Allen
John Rooney 7.8 4.7 1.6 11.6% 19.1% .288 83 121 0.2 Jeff Tabaka
Guillermo Zuniga 9.4 4.0 1.3 10.2% 23.9% .296 96 104 0.1 Kirk Bullinger
Austin Drury 7.1 3.6 1.3 9.0% 18.1% .293 90 111 0.1 Tanyon Sturtze
Neftalí Feliz 10.4 3.8 1.6 9.8% 26.6% .297 96 105 0.1 Ricky Bottalico
Scott Alexander 7.1 3.7 1.2 9.4% 18.1% .287 99 101 0.1 Don Hood
Marshall Kasowski 10.0 6.0 1.3 14.8% 24.6% .290 92 109 0.1 Scott Gentile
Zach McAllister 7.9 2.5 1.2 6.5% 20.7% .302 94 106 0.1 Eric Gunderson
Aaron Ochsenbein 8.6 3.4 1.5 8.8% 21.9% .295 93 108 0.0 Derek Hasselhoff
Garrett Cleavinger 10.8 5.9 1.3 14.6% 26.8% .282 93 108 0.0 Ron Villone
Shane Greene 8.9 3.2 1.6 8.3% 23.1% .283 94 106 0.0 Matt Karchner
Jimmie Sherfy 9.9 3.9 1.4 9.9% 25.3% .289 94 107 0.0 Tyler Yates
Kevin Quackenbush 9.4 3.2 1.6 8.2% 24.2% .298 93 107 0.0 Tyler Walker
Jon Duplantier 8.5 5.2 1.8 12.4% 20.4% .292 77 129 -0.1 Dennis Sarfate
Andrew Schwaab 8.5 4.6 1.2 11.4% 21.2% .293 91 109 -0.1 Roy Smith
Mike Kickham 7.5 3.6 2.0 8.9% 18.6% .292 79 127 -0.1 Jason Jacome
Parker Curry 7.5 2.6 2.1 6.5% 19.1% .294 79 127 -0.1 Ryan Hawblitzel
Nate Jones 9.3 4.2 1.9 10.2% 22.7% .302 84 119 -0.1 Mike Fetters
Yadier Álvarez 9.7 6.8 1.8 16.1% 23.1% .288 73 137 -0.2 Jose Diaz
Cameron Gibbens 9.6 5.1 1.5 12.5% 23.6% .291 88 113 -0.2 Santiago Ramirez
Bobby Wahl 9.5 4.9 1.5 12.3% 23.6% .302 81 124 -0.2 Dwight Bernard
Max Gamboa 9.8 6.9 1.4 16.2% 23.1% .297 78 128 -0.2 Leslie Brea
Gus Varland 5.6 3.9 1.9 9.5% 13.6% .288 70 142 -0.2 Bobby Munoz
Yaisel Sierra 7.0 3.7 1.9 9.2% 17.2% .288 77 130 -0.2 Junior Walsh
Michael Grove 8.4 4.4 1.9 10.9% 20.6% .296 75 134 -0.2 Frank Wills
Austin Bibens-Dirkx 6.2 2.4 2.0 6.1% 15.6% .299 75 133 -0.3 Dennis Springer
Mark Washington 7.7 4.5 1.5 11.1% 18.9% .291 83 120 -0.3 Sean Green
James Pazos 8.6 4.3 1.8 10.8% 21.5% .288 82 121 -0.3 Matt Perisho
Edward Cuello 6.1 3.4 1.7 8.5% 15.2% .293 76 131 -0.3 Jim Adamczak
Logan Salow 9.4 6.1 1.3 14.9% 22.8% .288 83 120 -0.3 Thomas Hart
Carson Fulmer 9.2 5.1 1.7 12.3% 22.5% .294 81 124 -0.3 Courtney Duncan
Ryan Moseley 6.7 5.2 1.2 12.6% 16.2% .296 82 121 -0.4 Jake Robbins
Jordan Martinson 6.8 4.6 1.8 11.1% 16.4% .294 75 133 -0.5 Ramon Tatis
Cyrillo Watson 7.3 5.0 1.5 12.1% 17.8% .293 77 130 -0.5 Mark Zamarripa
Zack Plunkett 7.6 4.5 1.6 11.0% 18.5% .292 78 128 -0.5 Kevin Cameron
Beau Burrows 7.8 4.2 2.2 10.2% 19.0% .297 72 139 -0.5 Eddie Bonine
Melvin Jimenez 7.8 4.4 2.1 10.8% 19.0% .293 71 140 -0.9 Tracy Thorpe

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Smiling Politely
11 months ago

It’s hard to imagine not penciling in 3 WAR from Kershaw once the lockout ends. Then we find out what happens with the Freeman, inevitable As fire sale, Muncy’s prognosis; regardless, I’m curious to see how the Dodgers and Giants plan for ’22 and beyond (and whether I continue to camp in the cold, harsh terrain on Gavin Lux Hill–talk me down, please!)

jamesdakrnmember
11 months ago

I’m still on Lux Island and I’m holding onto it w diamond hands.

He’s shown flashes of his potential last tear towards the end, but for all intents and purposes 2022 is a very important season for him in terms of his future w the Dodgers