2023 ZiPS Projections: Miami Marlins

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Miami Marlins.

Batters

Well, I guess we’re getting the bad news out of the way first! There is a lot to like about the Miami Marlins’ roster and almost none of it is contained in this section. I say almost none because Jazz Chisholm Jr. is a very talented player who is a blast to watch when he’s healthy and things are going well. Any pitch he connects with has the potential to be the perfect blend of velocity and launch angle. He combines that offensive ability with decent defense at second base, below-average glove work at short that still avoids being disastrous, and speed that will hopefully remain fully intact in 2023. And while you’ll notice Javier Báez on his comp list, his contact skills are less bleak and he’s nowhere near as over-aggressive.

If Chisholm is the Marlins’ Thelonious Monk, the rest of the lineup is, well, your neighbor’s tone-deaf 10-year-old son who got a guitar for Christmas and suddenly discovered Korn. There’s just no realistic scenario in which the offense is a significant plus for the team. The Fish’s third-best projected hitter is an over-30 catcher who had a .584 OPS last year. Using the ZiPS plate appearances, only four players in the organization project to have a 5% chance of a 4-WAR season in 2023. That’s fewer than teams like the Rockies and Pirates. What makes this especially unforgivable is that the Marlins intend to contend with this team now. There’s nothing wrong with a contender adding Jean Segura, but the team needs so much more than him; he’s not the finishing piece in an otherwise playoff-worthy lineup here. There’s no one in the organization who projects to be a difference-maker in the years before the pitching gets expensive, meaning that there’s no one in the organization who projects to be a difference-maker before Miami trades its pitchers to larger-market teams for prospects.

At some point, if the Marlins are actually serious about making the playoffs, they’re going to have to spend significant money in free agency, because they’re already running out of time to develop their own Aaron Judge or Mike Trout to come save the day. If they don’t, sneaking into an expanded playoff field with a .500 record because a pandemic disrupted the world will be their high-water mark. And no, swapping pitchers for hitters isn’t a get-out-of-jail-free card. Good teams need that depth because pitchers break!

Pitchers

Whew, we got the bad stuff out of the way. What makes the offense so frustrating to an outsider like me is that there are just so many compelling pitchers here. On some level, it would be easier if the pitching was as bleak as the offense, because then you could just say “ha ha, 52-110” and move on with your day. Sandy Alcantara is the closest thing to a classic workhorse ace as exists in 2020s baseball and the Marlins have him at a reasonable cost for as many as five more seasons. Thanks to his projected innings, he’s the current WAR leader in ZiPS among pitchers.

Pablo López is the pitcher who comes up the most in trade discussions, and I’m scared that the Marlins will trade for hitting instead of simply using all that shared revenue money to sign someone and keep their no. 2 starter. There are a lot of talented pitchers on the roster, but a lot of those talented pitchers have lengthy injury histories. Giving up López for an equivalent hitter just rearranges the deck chairs and rolls the dice on the rest of the staff. There’s a ton of upside in literally all of Jesús Luzardo, Max Meyer, Eury Pérez, Trevor Rogers, and Sixto Sánchez, but I don’t relish trying to find 180 extra innings from that group. I think you have to hang onto López and only start talking trades once you’re dealing from an actual, rather than speculative, strength. For all the live young arms in the organization and the 400 combined innings from Alcantara and López, Miami’s rotation still only ranked 12th in the majors in WAR last season. The excess pitching does not yet exist.

The bullpen isn’t quite as explosive as the rotation, but it’ll be strengthened in the long-term by whichever of the team’s live young arms don’t quite work out as starters. ZiPS especially likes Dylan Floro and Nic Enright, and hard-throwing lefty Tanner Scott is just unhittable enough that he can survive with that walk rate. The rest of the bullpen looks merely adequate, but between a few Triple-A pitchers and the players who stay healthy but don’t make the rotation, there should be an impressive amount of depth available. The Marlins ought to beat their disappointing 4.15 relief ERA from 2022.

The Marlins look like a .500 team, but an oddly configured one, with a playoff-ready pitching staff and a first-pick-of-the-draft-ready lineup. Hopefully ownership will someday give general manager Kim Ng enough cash to help the team fix the latter without ruining the former.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Jazz Chisholm Jr. L 25 2B 439 398 66 100 17 4 19 60 33 117 20 8
Jean Segura R 33 2B 480 439 58 119 20 2 9 42 32 70 10 4
Jacob Stallings R 33 C 351 314 30 75 14 0 6 33 30 78 0 1
Jesús Sánchez L 25 CF 504 457 59 113 17 4 19 65 40 127 3 1
Joey Wendle L 33 3B 397 366 45 98 24 3 6 39 20 69 10 4
Jacob Amaya R 24 SS 545 485 66 112 20 4 10 41 53 129 3 2
Nick Fortes R 26 C 373 335 42 80 13 1 10 44 28 67 4 2
C.J. Hinojosa R 28 SS 479 442 52 115 27 1 9 47 30 92 3 2
Charles Leblanc R 27 3B 487 445 55 105 19 3 13 54 38 149 5 2
Alex De Goti R 28 SS 520 462 63 109 23 3 6 42 48 117 4 1
Jorge Soler R 31 LF 491 427 59 98 21 0 24 65 55 135 1 1
Jose Salas B 20 SS 453 410 52 95 18 3 6 47 28 112 15 1
Peyton Burdick R 26 CF 496 432 68 91 21 3 15 61 51 158 7 3
Bryan De La Cruz R 26 CF 473 436 59 115 22 2 14 55 31 112 5 2
Joe Rizzo L 25 3B 533 493 63 121 24 1 13 57 35 120 1 2
Garrett Cooper R 32 1B 411 363 41 94 20 1 11 47 38 106 0 1
Jordan Groshans R 23 SS 453 406 48 102 19 0 5 34 43 89 1 1
Jon Berti R 33 2B 362 317 46 73 14 2 5 28 38 85 26 4
Willians Astudillo R 31 DH 341 319 39 89 14 0 11 43 11 18 2 1
Austin Allen L 29 C 297 274 29 65 15 0 9 35 17 80 0 1
Avisaíl García R 32 RF 438 400 44 97 16 0 13 50 28 116 6 2
Xavier Edwards B 23 2B 429 385 43 96 15 3 2 32 35 74 8 5
Lorenzo Quintana R 34 C 280 259 35 64 12 1 8 36 14 65 1 1
Bryson Brigman R 28 2B 418 384 43 94 17 3 5 40 26 90 5 3
JJ Bleday L 25 CF 536 467 58 97 23 2 17 57 63 147 3 2
Ryan Lavarnway R 35 C 262 234 24 52 10 0 7 29 24 69 0 1
Jake Mangum B 27 CF 341 315 44 79 14 4 4 34 16 72 9 4
Osiris Johnson R 22 CF 371 345 42 76 13 1 7 34 19 99 4 1
Troy Johnston L 26 1B 474 426 43 100 21 1 9 52 38 112 2 1
Demetrius Sims R 27 SS 316 284 30 57 12 1 4 30 22 125 7 3
Ray-Patrick Didder R 28 SS 415 371 45 78 14 2 6 40 30 126 12 5
Jose Devers L 23 2B 240 226 30 53 10 3 1 20 10 51 2 1
Luis Aviles Jr. R 28 SS 362 339 41 76 18 2 8 39 17 109 9 3
Norel Gonzalez L 29 DH 357 327 33 78 18 1 9 40 24 88 2 2
Griffin Conine L 25 RF 474 423 46 79 13 2 20 58 45 211 1 1
Brian Miller L 27 LF 455 419 52 105 18 5 4 43 28 91 17 6
Paul McIntosh R 25 C 353 307 47 69 21 2 10 42 37 83 4 2
Santiago Chávez R 27 C 218 203 18 38 7 0 2 16 10 73 0 1
Bubba Hollins R 27 3B 289 263 22 58 14 0 2 26 17 70 1 1
Garrett Hampson R 28 SS 392 356 49 78 13 4 6 27 29 107 16 4
Dalvy Rosario R 22 3B 474 441 49 98 15 4 6 44 21 138 14 4
Victor Mesa Jr. L 21 CF 531 489 52 109 22 5 5 46 33 127 6 3
Nasim Nuñez B 22 SS 527 458 57 94 16 2 1 36 60 153 33 12
Cobie Fletcher-Vance R 25 3B 434 393 37 88 17 1 2 35 29 86 2 1
J.D. Osborne R 27 DH 217 200 20 44 8 2 5 25 11 73 0 1
Cody Morissette L 23 2B 346 319 37 65 13 0 7 34 21 100 1 1
Jerar Encarnacion R 25 RF 494 456 53 103 18 1 16 61 32 172 4 3
Dane Myers R 27 LF 429 398 43 92 16 1 13 59 20 134 10 3
Will Banfield R 23 C 389 366 33 75 16 2 7 37 15 107 0 1
Davis Bradshaw L 25 LF 348 318 32 78 11 3 1 31 17 64 6 5
J.D. Orr L 26 LF 349 308 43 71 12 2 0 27 34 73 20 7
Ynmanol Mariñez R 22 3B 455 431 47 91 14 3 6 44 17 126 2 1
Victor Victor Mesa R 26 CF 403 372 37 82 10 1 2 30 20 76 15 2
Devin Hairston R 27 SS 291 271 24 48 10 1 2 19 17 109 2 1
Angeudis Santos B 21 2B 270 244 29 47 7 2 3 19 22 91 5 2
Kyler Castillo R 25 RF 322 285 29 68 9 1 1 28 29 71 1 3
Jan Mercado R 23 C 215 197 16 32 4 1 3 20 11 105 1 1
Bennett Hostetler R 25 C 368 338 40 74 13 1 6 41 17 102 2 1
Zach Zubia R 25 1B 411 347 36 67 13 0 8 36 58 142 0 1

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 439 .251 .313 .457 110 .206 .309 4 2.7 .330
Jean Segura 480 .271 .329 .387 98 .116 .306 3 2.0 .313
Jacob Stallings 351 .239 .311 .341 81 .102 .300 11 2.0 .289
Jesús Sánchez 504 .247 .313 .427 102 .179 .302 -3 1.7 .320
Joey Wendle 397 .268 .317 .399 97 .131 .316 3 1.7 .310
Jacob Amaya 545 .231 .308 .351 82 .120 .295 2 1.6 .292
Nick Fortes 373 .239 .311 .373 89 .134 .271 1 1.5 .301
C.J. Hinojosa 479 .260 .310 .387 92 .127 .311 -1 1.5 .302
Charles Leblanc 487 .236 .300 .380 87 .144 .325 4 1.4 .296
Alex De Goti 520 .236 .312 .338 80 .102 .304 2 1.4 .289
Jorge Soler 491 .230 .324 .447 111 .218 .276 -3 1.4 .333
Jose Salas 453 .232 .297 .334 75 .102 .305 4 1.3 .279
Peyton Burdick 496 .211 .308 .377 89 .167 .293 0 1.3 .302
Bryan De La Cruz 473 .264 .313 .420 101 .156 .326 -6 1.2 .316
Joe Rizzo 533 .245 .298 .377 86 .132 .300 2 1.1 .294
Garrett Cooper 411 .259 .338 .410 106 .152 .337 -1 1.0 .328
Jordan Groshans 453 .251 .322 .335 83 .084 .311 -2 1.0 .293
Jon Berti 362 .230 .319 .334 82 .104 .300 -1 1.0 .293
Willians Astudillo 341 .279 .320 .426 104 .147 .269 0 0.8 .323
Austin Allen 297 .237 .287 .391 85 .153 .303 -1 0.8 .292
Avisaíl García 438 .243 .301 .380 87 .138 .310 5 0.7 .296
Xavier Edwards 429 .249 .312 .319 76 .070 .304 3 0.7 .281
Lorenzo Quintana 280 .247 .296 .394 89 .147 .301 -3 0.7 .299
Bryson Brigman 418 .245 .298 .344 77 .099 .308 2 0.6 .282
JJ Bleday 536 .208 .306 .375 87 .167 .264 -8 0.5 .300
Ryan Lavarnway 262 .222 .302 .355 81 .132 .285 -4 0.3 .291
Jake Mangum 341 .251 .300 .359 82 .108 .314 -3 0.3 .289
Osiris Johnson 371 .220 .265 .325 62 .104 .289 5 0.2 .258
Troy Johnston 474 .235 .304 .352 81 .117 .298 3 0.1 .289
Demetrius Sims 316 .201 .275 .292 58 .092 .342 2 0.1 .256
Ray-Patrick Didder 415 .210 .289 .307 66 .097 .301 -2 0.1 .267
Jose Devers 240 .235 .275 .319 64 .084 .299 2 0.1 .261
Luis Aviles Jr. 362 .224 .262 .360 70 .136 .306 -2 0.0 .268
Norel Gonzalez 357 .239 .300 .382 87 .144 .300 0 0.0 .296
Griffin Conine 474 .187 .272 .369 75 .182 .307 4 0.0 .279
Brian Miller 455 .251 .299 .346 78 .095 .312 1 -0.1 .283
Paul McIntosh 353 .225 .320 .404 99 .179 .276 -18 -0.1 .317
Santiago Chávez 218 .187 .235 .251 35 .064 .281 7 -0.1 .218
Bubba Hollins 289 .221 .284 .297 61 .076 .293 2 -0.1 .260
Garrett Hampson 392 .219 .280 .329 68 .110 .296 -5 -0.1 .268
Dalvy Rosario 474 .222 .263 .315 60 .093 .310 5 -0.1 .254
Victor Mesa Jr. 531 .223 .274 .319 64 .096 .291 2 -0.3 .260
Nasim Nuñez 527 .205 .300 .255 57 .050 .306 -3 -0.3 .258
Cobie Fletcher-Vance 434 .224 .286 .288 60 .064 .282 1 -0.4 .258
J.D. Osborne 217 .220 .276 .355 73 .135 .320 0 -0.4 .276
Cody Morissette 346 .204 .260 .310 57 .107 .274 1 -0.4 .252
Jerar Encarnacion 494 .226 .279 .375 79 .149 .325 -1 -0.4 .284
Dane Myers 429 .231 .278 .374 79 .143 .315 -3 -0.5 .283
Will Banfield 389 .205 .242 .317 53 .112 .270 -1 -0.6 .243
Davis Bradshaw 348 .245 .299 .308 69 .063 .304 0 -0.7 .270
J.D. Orr 349 .231 .312 .282 67 .052 .302 -2 -0.7 .271
Ynmanol Mariñez 455 .211 .248 .299 51 .088 .284 5 -0.7 .241
Victor Victor Mesa 403 .220 .265 .269 49 .048 .272 1 -0.8 .239
Devin Hairston 291 .177 .228 .244 31 .066 .288 4 -0.8 .212
Angeudis Santos 270 .193 .260 .275 49 .082 .293 -3 -1.0 .240
Kyler Castillo 322 .239 .320 .288 71 .049 .315 -6 -1.1 .277
Jan Mercado 215 .162 .229 .239 30 .076 .326 -3 -1.1 .213
Bennett Hostetler 368 .219 .277 .317 64 .098 .296 -13 -1.2 .263
Zach Zubia 411 .193 .311 .300 71 .107 .299 -8 -1.4 .280

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Oneil Cruz Al Smith Javier Báez
Jean Segura Steve Sax Joe Stripp Jose Reyes
Jacob Stallings Chris Grossman Tucker Barnhart Kirt Manwaring
Jesús Sánchez Roy Johnson John Bowker Adam Jones
Joey Wendle Jerry Hairston José Reyes Keith Lockhart
Jacob Amaya Sam Khalifa Dave Berg Ramón Vázquez
Nick Fortes Bob Allietta Robert Chandanais Brian Harper
C.J. Hinojosa Nick Tanielu Jason Alfaro Chico Carrasquel
Charles Leblanc Jeff Moronko Casey Blake Tony Perezchica
Alex De Goti No Run Baker Ramón Vázquez Kevin Stocker
Jorge Soler Brandon Moss Shelley Duncan Roy Sievers
Jose Salas Hak-Ju Lee 이학주 Bryan Hoppie Hanley Ramirez
Peyton Burdick Brad Komminsk Kevin Ward Jeromy Burnitz
Bryan De La Cruz Hank Allen Bill Virdon Austin Dean
Joe Rizzo Roy Staiger Scott Livingstone Jim Davenport
Garrett Cooper Billy McMillon Luis Jimenez히메네스 Brian Myrow 마이로우
Jordan Groshans Ruben Tejada Jeff Treadway Dave Cripe
Jon Berti Jim Walewander Mike McCoy Jimmy Sexton
Willians Astudillo Randall Simon Luis Lopez John Barnes
Austin Allen Tim Federowicz Jim Campbell Ray Katt
Avisaíl García Ian Desmond Gene Stephens Derek Bell
Xavier Edwards Bobby Kilpatrick Jose Vizcaino Maurice Lerner
Lorenzo Quintana Del Wilber Bob Scheffing Tim McIntosh
Bryson Brigman John McDonald Bobby De Jardin Brett Dowdy
JJ Bleday Steve Wilkins John Harmon Jaff Decker
Ryan Lavarnway Jeff Reed Rick Dempsey John Buck
Jake Mangum Philip Bushman Jim Steels Scott Little
Osiris Johnson Justin Gominsky Luis Cruz Barry Wesson
Troy Johnston Donald Davis Jerry Schlegelmilch Cameron Seitzer
Demetrius Sims Rolando Gomez Mario Mendoza Skip Adams
Ray-Patrick Didder Pedro Florimon Bill Almon Zach Penprase
Jose Devers Shane Opitz Leonardo Luna Paul Hoover
Luis Aviles Jr. Kristopher Negron Chris Owings Benji Gil
Norel Gonzalez Marquez Smith Chad Tracy Tim Belk
Griffin Conine Chito Martinez Nate Dishington Steve Balboni
Brian Miller Tim Colwell Alan Hayden Jason Bourgeois
Paul McIntosh Ben Petrick Charlie Moore Greg Mahlberg
Santiago Chávez Carlos Dominguez Clay Gunn Brandon Rogers
Bubba Hollins Jonathan Mota Dino Ebel Marc Tugwell
Garrett Hampson Chase d’Arnaud Brent Lillibridge Mike Brumley
Dalvy Rosario Francisco Martinez Luis Cruz Pedro Santana
Victor Mesa Jr. Yahmed Yema Max Venable Rafael Alvarez
Nasim Nuñez Larry Lintz Joe Gates Johnny Raburn
Cobie Fletcher-Vance Marty Wilkerson Rob Cosby James Kobi
J.D. Osborne Cole White Travis Vetters Donald Lutz
Cody Morissette Lionel Hastings Mark Razook Bill Dukes
Jerar Encarnacion Glen Walker Oliverio Sparks Steve Stroughter
Dane Myers Bob Oliver Rolando Roomes Bill Schlesinger
Will Banfield Taylor Gushue Jack Fleming Jeff Goldbach
Davis Bradshaw Willy Hill Rafael Bautista Shane Robinson
J.D. Orr Scott Sollmann Darin Mastroianni Sean Danielson
Ynmanol Mariñez Lance Downing Mike Hiney Hector Navarro
Victor Victor Mesa Bobby Dews Charlie White E.C. Leslie
Devin Hairston Dan Firlit Don McNally Seth Bynum
Angeudis Santos Robi Estrada Howard Robinson Lonnie Keeter
Kyler Castillo Van Sowards Steve Stanley Colin Moro
Jan Mercado Joe Bertucci Lindsey Johnson Cecil Strawn
Bennett Hostetler Ned Yost Kurt Brown Jay Nieporte
Zach Zubia Jerry LaPenta Allan Dykstra Ian Rice

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Jazz Chisholm Jr. .276 .335 .512 129 4.0 .228 .290 .406 92 1.7
Jean Segura .295 .356 .428 113 3.0 .243 .304 .349 81 1.0
Jacob Stallings .269 .344 .387 102 2.9 .207 .284 .296 62 1.1
Jesús Sánchez .276 .340 .483 123 3.1 .222 .285 .382 84 0.5
Joey Wendle .295 .346 .445 114 2.6 .236 .290 .354 77 0.7
Jacob Amaya .257 .336 .395 100 2.8 .205 .283 .308 65 0.4
Nick Fortes .276 .340 .430 109 2.5 .213 .284 .327 72 0.7
C.J. Hinojosa .288 .335 .437 109 2.5 .232 .282 .345 72 0.2
Charles Leblanc .261 .326 .428 103 2.5 .209 .272 .336 67 0.2
Alex De Goti .259 .336 .379 97 2.6 .208 .282 .296 62 0.2
Jorge Soler .255 .349 .499 130 2.5 .206 .298 .385 91 0.2
Jose Salas .256 .320 .379 92 2.3 .208 .274 .296 59 0.4
Peyton Burdick .236 .330 .429 107 2.4 .185 .280 .329 71 0.2
Bryan De La Cruz .292 .341 .465 118 2.3 .236 .286 .370 81 0.1
Joe Rizzo .273 .324 .427 104 2.4 .223 .275 .332 68 -0.1
Garrett Cooper .287 .365 .463 126 1.9 .227 .309 .360 85 -0.2
Jordan Groshans .275 .351 .374 101 2.0 .223 .298 .299 67 0.0
Jon Berti .255 .342 .378 100 1.7 .205 .293 .291 66 0.2
Willians Astudillo .309 .352 .480 126 1.8 .253 .295 .377 88 0.0
Austin Allen .262 .315 .442 106 1.5 .209 .262 .336 66 0.1
Avisaíl García .271 .328 .424 107 1.8 .215 .274 .333 71 -0.3
Xavier Edwards .278 .343 .364 95 1.7 .225 .289 .281 59 -0.2
Lorenzo Quintana .279 .326 .455 114 1.6 .217 .269 .345 69 0.0
Bryson Brigman .273 .324 .385 96 1.6 .215 .269 .306 60 -0.3
JJ Bleday .233 .336 .420 105 1.6 .180 .277 .324 67 -1.0
Ryan Lavarnway .252 .330 .412 101 0.9 .191 .272 .302 61 -0.4
Jake Mangum .278 .323 .403 100 1.0 .223 .270 .320 64 -0.5
Osiris Johnson .249 .296 .370 81 1.1 .191 .238 .281 44 -0.7
Troy Johnston .262 .330 .405 100 1.2 .210 .281 .316 65 -0.9
Demetrius Sims .229 .304 .338 77 0.9 .170 .246 .251 38 -0.7
Ray-Patrick Didder .239 .318 .356 86 1.2 .183 .260 .267 48 -0.8
Jose Devers .270 .306 .369 86 0.7 .205 .246 .268 44 -0.6
Luis Aviles Jr. .252 .289 .413 92 1.0 .199 .237 .313 50 -0.9
Norel Gonzalez .267 .329 .434 108 1.0 .212 .271 .334 69 -0.9
Griffin Conine .216 .300 .431 95 1.1 .156 .244 .301 50 -1.5
Brian Miller .278 .323 .391 98 1.0 .223 .272 .308 61 -1.1
Paul McIntosh .255 .352 .464 122 0.9 .197 .295 .346 79 -1.0
Santiago Chávez .220 .268 .291 54 0.5 .157 .202 .215 16 -0.6
Bubba Hollins .245 .310 .333 77 0.4 .198 .263 .263 45 -0.7
Garrett Hampson .249 .310 .377 89 0.9 .196 .253 .283 50 -0.9
Dalvy Rosario .248 .289 .355 75 0.9 .195 .238 .273 42 -1.1
Victor Mesa Jr. .254 .301 .356 81 0.8 .197 .248 .282 47 -1.4
Nasim Nuñez .234 .329 .288 72 0.8 .182 .277 .223 42 -1.4
Cobie Fletcher-Vance .250 .314 .321 76 0.5 .198 .262 .253 45 -1.3
J.D. Osborne .248 .302 .409 93 0.2 .192 .248 .308 54 -0.9
Cody Morissette .234 .289 .373 81 0.7 .176 .233 .272 40 -1.1
Jerar Encarnacion .251 .303 .422 98 0.7 .199 .255 .330 62 -1.5
Dane Myers .260 .307 .422 99 0.7 .204 .249 .327 58 -1.6
Will Banfield .239 .276 .373 75 0.5 .173 .214 .273 36 -1.5
Davis Bradshaw .272 .324 .340 84 0.0 .220 .274 .271 52 -1.5
J.D. Orr .258 .339 .323 83 0.1 .206 .286 .247 50 -1.5
Ynmanol Mariñez .237 .274 .341 67 0.2 .186 .221 .260 35 -1.7
Victor Victor Mesa .247 .292 .305 67 0.2 .196 .243 .239 36 -1.5
Devin Hairston .208 .259 .283 49 -0.2 .151 .203 .199 13 -1.5
Angeudis Santos .222 .293 .320 67 -0.3 .162 .233 .228 30 -1.6
Kyler Castillo .270 .348 .328 87 -0.4 .212 .292 .255 53 -1.7
Jan Mercado .194 .260 .290 51 -0.5 .132 .196 .188 9 -1.7
Bennett Hostetler .248 .306 .359 81 -0.4 .192 .253 .275 48 -1.9
Zach Zubia .219 .342 .340 89 -0.5 .165 .281 .258 52 -2.4

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Sandy Alcantara R 27 12 10 3.32 31 31 209.0 178 77 22 52 191
Dylan Floro R 32 3 4 3.48 58 2 54.3 51 21 5 17 49
Nic Enright R 26 3 3 3.55 43 1 58.3 52 23 7 16 65
Tanner Scott L 28 4 4 3.62 61 0 59.7 46 24 5 35 80
Steven Okert L 31 4 5 3.76 55 1 52.7 42 22 7 21 62
Huascar Brazoban R 33 2 2 3.78 48 0 66.7 56 28 7 34 79
Richard Bleier L 36 2 2 3.86 50 2 46.7 50 20 4 10 31
Pablo López R 27 8 9 3.87 28 28 156.0 142 67 22 41 155
Anthony Maldonado R 25 3 4 3.88 37 0 53.3 48 23 7 17 57
Jesús Luzardo L 25 5 7 3.93 23 21 107.7 90 47 13 39 120
Tyler Eckberg R 25 4 5 4.03 34 0 58.0 61 26 7 15 48
Anthony Bender R 28 2 3 4.04 43 1 42.3 37 19 5 16 45
Max Meyer R 24 4 6 4.04 20 20 91.3 84 41 11 38 91
Eury Pérez R 20 4 5 4.08 24 24 99.3 88 45 12 36 105
Chandler Jozwiak L 24 3 4 4.09 39 0 50.7 47 23 5 20 47
Jake Eder L 24 4 5 4.10 17 17 74.7 64 34 8 38 81
Johnny Cueto R 37 7 9 4.20 25 24 143.7 160 67 19 36 96
Trevor Rogers L 25 6 10 4.22 25 25 121.7 115 57 16 41 125
Josh Simpson L 25 3 4 4.23 40 1 55.3 46 26 7 27 68
Edward Cabrera R 25 5 8 4.24 22 22 97.7 82 46 14 44 108
JT Chargois R 32 3 4 4.26 54 0 50.7 45 24 7 21 49
Andrew Nardi L 24 3 5 4.31 42 0 56.3 50 27 8 26 70
Braxton Garrett L 25 5 8 4.38 23 22 111.0 109 54 15 41 105
Tommy Nance R 32 2 2 4.40 35 3 45.0 41 22 6 20 50
Colton Hock R 27 3 5 4.44 42 1 52.7 55 26 7 19 40
Patrick Monteverde L 25 3 4 4.45 19 19 95.0 96 47 13 32 80
Sixto Sánchez R 24 4 6 4.48 14 14 78.3 82 39 12 23 62
Dax Fulton L 21 5 7 4.49 23 22 106.3 105 53 13 44 98
Eli Villalobos R 26 2 4 4.53 41 1 59.7 57 30 10 25 64
A.J. Ladwig R 30 5 8 4.55 21 16 95.0 108 48 14 17 54
Daniel Castano L 28 3 5 4.56 18 13 77.0 83 39 12 20 54
Austin Roberts R 24 2 3 4.61 35 2 52.7 53 27 8 20 49
Josan Méndez R 22 1 3 4.61 34 0 52.7 57 27 6 13 30
Tommy Eveld R 29 2 3 4.62 30 1 39.0 38 20 6 14 36
Cody Poteet R 28 2 5 4.65 17 13 69.7 69 36 11 26 61
Zack Leban R 27 1 3 4.70 27 0 38.3 36 20 5 17 36
Luis Palacios L 22 5 9 4.73 21 19 112.3 123 59 19 21 78
Geoff Hartlieb R 29 2 5 4.73 36 2 51.3 51 27 6 25 47
Jeff Lindgren R 26 4 7 4.77 23 22 109.3 116 58 15 43 77
Tyler Mitzel R 27 2 4 4.78 33 0 49.0 49 26 8 18 46
Parker Bugg R 28 2 4 4.86 30 3 50.0 46 27 7 34 52
Robert Garcia L 27 2 4 4.88 40 0 51.7 51 28 7 27 49
Jackson Rose R 27 2 3 4.91 24 6 55.0 60 30 11 14 46
Chi Chi González R 31 3 5 4.93 22 17 95.0 102 52 13 33 64
Matthew Kent L 30 5 11 4.94 24 19 114.7 134 63 15 37 59
Zach McCambley R 24 5 8 4.95 19 19 91.0 90 50 14 41 81
Sean Reynolds R 25 1 2 4.98 41 0 43.3 41 24 5 26 41
Jordan Holloway R 27 3 5 5.01 19 12 55.7 53 31 9 32 55
Bryan Hoeing R 26 5 9 5.02 24 19 109.3 125 61 16 31 60
M.D. Johnson R 25 5 10 5.12 19 18 89.7 90 51 14 44 77
George Soriano R 24 3 5 5.12 29 11 77.3 77 44 12 39 70
Jorge Mercedes R 22 2 5 5.12 29 7 38.7 29 22 5 31 52
Zach King L 25 4 9 5.18 19 19 90.3 93 52 14 46 77
Jake Walters R 27 2 4 5.20 15 10 53.7 58 31 9 24 41
Dylan Bice R 25 1 3 5.21 30 0 38.0 37 22 5 23 32
Cody Mincey R 31 4 8 5.34 21 14 84.3 95 50 14 34 58
Paul Campbell R 27 4 8 5.38 19 12 77.0 84 46 14 30 61
Justin Evans R 26 2 4 5.44 31 0 43.0 43 26 7 26 41
Bryan Mitchell R 32 1 2 5.58 17 6 40.3 45 25 6 23 30
Andrew McInvale R 26 2 4 5.65 26 1 36.7 36 23 6 22 35
Will Stewart L 25 3 9 5.65 24 13 87.7 94 55 14 42 61

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Sandy Alcantara 209.0 8.2 2.2 0.9 6.1% 22.6% .270 123 3.57 81 4.5
Dylan Floro 54.3 8.1 2.8 0.8 7.5% 21.5% .295 117 3.54 85 0.7
Nic Enright 58.3 10.0 2.5 1.1 6.6% 26.7% .298 115 3.36 87 0.7
Tanner Scott 59.7 12.1 5.3 0.8 13.3% 30.4% .299 113 3.57 89 0.6
Steven Okert 52.7 10.6 3.6 1.2 9.5% 28.1% .273 109 4.01 92 0.5
Huascar Brazoban 66.7 10.7 4.6 0.9 11.4% 26.6% .295 108 3.81 92 0.5
Richard Bleier 46.7 6.0 1.9 0.8 5.1% 15.7% .305 106 3.71 94 0.4
Pablo López 156.0 8.9 2.4 1.3 6.4% 24.1% .284 106 3.98 95 2.4
Anthony Maldonado 53.3 9.6 2.9 1.2 7.5% 25.2% .293 105 3.85 95 0.3
Jesús Luzardo 107.7 10.0 3.3 1.1 8.6% 26.5% .282 104 3.69 96 1.5
Tyler Eckberg 58.0 7.4 2.3 1.1 6.0% 19.3% .307 101 3.95 99 0.3
Anthony Bender 42.3 9.6 3.4 1.1 8.9% 25.0% .288 101 3.98 99 0.3
Max Meyer 91.3 9.0 3.7 1.1 9.6% 23.0% .292 101 4.07 99 1.2
Eury Pérez 99.3 9.5 3.3 1.1 8.6% 24.9% .290 100 3.94 100 1.3
Chandler Jozwiak 50.7 8.3 3.6 0.9 9.2% 21.6% .294 100 3.94 100 0.2
Jake Eder 74.7 9.8 4.6 1.0 11.5% 24.5% .289 100 4.10 100 1.0
Johnny Cueto 143.7 6.0 2.3 1.2 5.8% 15.6% .303 97 4.39 103 1.8
Trevor Rogers 121.7 9.2 3.0 1.2 7.9% 24.2% .299 97 3.94 103 1.5
Josh Simpson 55.3 11.1 4.4 1.1 11.0% 27.8% .291 97 4.13 103 0.2
Edward Cabrera 97.7 10.0 4.1 1.3 10.5% 25.7% .275 96 4.40 104 1.1
JT Chargois 50.7 8.7 3.7 1.2 9.7% 22.7% .277 96 4.55 104 0.1
Andrew Nardi 56.3 11.2 4.2 1.3 10.7% 28.7% .304 95 4.06 106 0.1
Braxton Garrett 111.0 8.5 3.3 1.2 8.5% 21.9% .299 93 4.29 107 1.1
Tommy Nance 45.0 10.0 4.0 1.2 10.1% 25.3% .299 93 4.20 108 0.2
Colton Hock 52.7 6.8 3.2 1.2 8.3% 17.4% .296 92 4.56 109 0.0
Patrick Monteverde 95.0 7.6 3.0 1.2 7.8% 19.5% .295 92 4.42 109 0.9
Sixto Sánchez 78.3 7.1 2.6 1.4 6.9% 18.6% .295 91 4.52 110 0.7
Dax Fulton 106.3 8.3 3.7 1.1 9.4% 20.9% .302 91 4.31 110 1.0
Eli Villalobos 59.7 9.7 3.8 1.5 9.5% 24.4% .297 90 4.59 111 -0.1
A.J. Ladwig 95.0 5.1 1.6 1.3 4.2% 13.4% .297 90 4.60 111 0.8
Daniel Castano 77.0 6.3 2.3 1.4 6.1% 16.4% .293 90 4.67 112 0.6
Austin Roberts 52.7 8.4 3.4 1.4 8.7% 21.3% .300 89 4.58 113 0.0
Josan Méndez 52.7 5.1 2.2 1.0 5.8% 13.3% .291 89 4.46 113 -0.1
Tommy Eveld 39.0 8.3 3.2 1.4 8.4% 21.6% .291 89 4.54 113 0.0
Cody Poteet 69.7 7.9 3.4 1.4 8.6% 20.1% .289 88 4.70 114 0.5
Zack Leban 38.3 8.5 4.0 1.2 10.2% 21.6% .290 87 4.69 115 -0.1
Luis Palacios 112.3 6.2 1.7 1.5 4.4% 16.5% .294 86 4.68 116 0.7
Geoff Hartlieb 51.3 8.2 4.4 1.1 10.7% 20.2% .304 86 4.48 116 0.0
Jeff Lindgren 109.3 6.3 3.5 1.2 8.9% 15.9% .294 86 4.93 117 0.6
Tyler Mitzel 49.0 8.4 3.3 1.5 8.3% 21.2% .295 86 4.75 117 -0.3
Parker Bugg 50.0 9.4 6.1 1.3 14.7% 22.4% .291 84 5.05 119 -0.1
Robert Garcia 51.7 8.5 4.7 1.2 11.6% 21.1% .301 84 4.70 119 -0.3
Jackson Rose 55.0 7.5 2.3 1.8 5.9% 19.4% .299 83 4.90 120 0.0
Chi Chi González 95.0 6.1 3.1 1.2 8.0% 15.5% .295 83 4.75 121 0.3
Matthew Kent 114.7 4.6 2.9 1.2 7.3% 11.6% .302 83 4.98 121 0.4
Zach McCambley 91.0 8.0 4.1 1.4 10.0% 19.9% .291 83 5.05 121 0.4
Sean Reynolds 43.3 8.5 5.4 1.0 13.1% 20.7% .295 82 4.84 122 -0.3
Jordan Holloway 55.7 8.9 5.2 1.5 12.7% 21.8% .289 82 5.11 123 0.2
Bryan Hoeing 109.3 4.9 2.6 1.3 6.5% 12.5% .296 81 5.00 123 0.3
M.D. Johnson 89.7 7.7 4.4 1.4 10.9% 19.1% .291 80 5.17 125 0.2
George Soriano 77.3 8.1 4.5 1.4 11.2% 20.1% .294 80 5.18 125 0.0
Jorge Mercedes 38.7 12.1 7.2 1.2 17.1% 28.7% .279 80 5.02 125 -0.1
Zach King 90.3 7.7 4.6 1.4 11.4% 19.0% .297 79 5.22 127 0.2
Jake Walters 53.7 6.9 4.0 1.5 9.9% 16.9% .297 79 5.37 127 0.0
Dylan Bice 38.0 7.6 5.4 1.2 13.2% 18.4% .288 78 5.15 128 -0.3
Cody Mincey 84.3 6.2 3.6 1.5 8.9% 15.2% .301 77 5.39 131 -0.1
Paul Campbell 77.0 7.1 3.5 1.6 8.7% 17.8% .299 76 5.26 132 -0.1
Justin Evans 43.0 8.6 5.4 1.5 13.0% 20.5% .298 75 5.53 133 -0.5
Bryan Mitchell 40.3 6.7 5.1 1.3 12.0% 15.7% .307 73 5.46 137 -0.3
Andrew McInvale 36.7 8.6 5.4 1.5 12.9% 20.6% .294 72 5.42 138 -0.4
Will Stewart 87.7 6.3 4.3 1.4 10.6% 15.4% .291 72 5.79 138 -0.4

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Sandy Alcantara Jordan Zimmermann Félix Hernández Johnny Cueto 5.7 3.3 2.85 3.79
Dylan Floro Bill Landrum Jerry Dipoto Ben Weber 1.2 0.1 2.84 4.54
Nic Enright Jonathan Holder Doug Bird Mike Adams 1.3 0.0 2.69 4.74
Tanner Scott Jake Diekman Pedro Borbon Andy Hassler 1.3 -0.2 2.90 4.60
Steven Okert Tug McGraw Eddie Guardado Sid Monge 1.2 -0.2 2.92 4.64
Huascar Brazoban Jose Alvarez Ted Abernathy Greg Harris 1.3 -0.4 2.94 4.96
Richard Bleier Stubby Overmire Jim Kaat Dave Koslo 0.7 0.0 3.29 4.72
Pablo López Curt Schilling Mat Latos Kevin Millwood 3.5 1.4 3.24 4.57
Anthony Maldonado Preston Guilmet Pete Della Ratta Chandler Shepherd 0.8 -0.3 3.12 5.06
Jesús Luzardo Sterling Hitchcock Joe Gibbon Rudy May 2.3 0.5 3.40 4.75
Tyler Eckberg Chase Bradford Dwayne Pollok Marty Kain 0.8 -0.1 3.25 4.73
Anthony Bender Danny Frisella Jesse Crain Elias Sosa 0.8 -0.2 3.29 5.11
Max Meyer Josh Johnson Andy McGaffigan Jesse Hahn 1.9 0.5 3.50 4.67
Eury Pérez Angelo Nardella Bob Maneely Jeff Russell 2.1 0.4 3.45 4.93
Chandler Jozwiak Fabian Cota Eric O’Flaherty John Morris 0.7 -0.2 3.43 4.86
Jake Eder Dave Lemonds Earl Johnson Doug Gallagher 1.6 0.4 3.50 4.86
Johnny Cueto Larry Jackson Rick Reuschel Elmer Singleton 2.5 1.0 3.70 4.79
Trevor Rogers Mark Guthrie Mike Flanagan Derek Holland 2.4 0.5 3.60 4.93
Josh Simpson Kevin Siegrist Josh Edgin Dave Tomlin 0.8 -0.4 3.52 5.13
Edward Cabrera Dave Boswell Les Tietje Chuck Estrada 1.9 0.1 3.65 5.02
JT Chargois Alex Colome Blake Treinen Santiago Casilla 0.6 -0.6 3.50 5.82
Andrew Nardi Jesse Wright Will Ohman Mike Munoz 0.7 -0.5 3.48 5.25
Braxton Garrett Grady Hall Benj Sampson Eric Lauer 1.8 0.2 3.84 5.08
Tommy Nance Don Larsen Dave Baldwin Scott Dohmann 0.6 -0.3 3.67 5.53
Colton Hock Steve Gajkowski Vernon Orndorff Brandon Agamennone 0.4 -0.4 3.86 5.02
Patrick Monteverde Abe Alvarez Todd Douma Mike Willis 1.5 0.2 3.95 5.14
Sixto Sánchez J.D. Martin 마틴 Taylor Guerrieri Shawn Box 1.2 0.1 3.86 5.24
Dax Fulton Ed Puig Eduardo Rodriguez Gregg Langbehn 1.7 0.2 3.99 5.14
Eli Villalobos Ryan Meisinger Erik Stiller Wei-Chieh Huang 0.5 -0.6 3.75 5.31
A.J. Ladwig Dustin Crenshaw Ed Lynch Eddie Bonine 1.2 0.2 4.12 4.98
Daniel Castano Joel Kirsten Bradley Davis Anthony Boughner 1.0 0.0 4.15 5.24
Austin Roberts Alan DeRatt Lloyd Gladden Scott McKenzie 0.5 -0.4 3.88 5.33
Josan Méndez John Ludy Michael Wysocki Dennis Long 0.3 -0.4 4.07 5.25
Tommy Eveld Neal McDade Jack Aker Jake McMurran 0.4 -0.4 3.87 5.74
Cody Poteet Vic Keen Brett Backlund Alan Foster 0.9 -0.1 4.07 5.37
Zack Leban Jeff Harris Bruce Cunningham John Lamb 0.2 -0.5 4.04 5.58
Luis Palacios Ryan Carpenter 카펜터 Michael Plassmeyer Jalen Beeks 1.7 -0.1 4.00 5.34
Geoff Hartlieb Josh Rupe Jorge Rondon Robert Stickels 0.4 -0.5 4.05 5.55
Jeff Lindgren Keury Mella Stephen Fife Brandon Cumpton 1.2 -0.1 4.37 5.36
Tyler Mitzel Carroll Sembera Austin Maddox Mike McNutt 0.1 -0.7 4.14 5.58
Parker Bugg Brandon Cunniff Ryan Garton Jim Dickson 0.4 -0.7 4.19 5.87
Robert Garcia Eury De La Rosa Mike Dalton Jordan Mills 0.2 -0.7 4.17 5.67
Jackson Rose Rob Stanifer Joe Cotton Jim Telgheder 0.5 -0.4 4.26 5.61
Chi Chi González Chuck Dobson Austin Bibens-Dirkx Jason Middlebrook 0.8 -0.3 4.48 5.54
Matthew Kent Ty Blach Anthony Vasquez John Lannan 1.1 -0.2 4.48 5.47
Zach McCambley Beau Burrows Paul Wagner William Brennan 0.9 -0.3 4.46 5.55
Sean Reynolds Secundino Almonte Hugo Castellanos Jim Vosk 0.0 -0.7 4.46 5.72
Jordan Holloway Juan Pena Paul Zahniser Bruce Howard 0.6 -0.3 4.38 5.80
Bryan Hoeing Thomas Eshelman Zach Hedges James Naile 0.9 -0.3 4.55 5.51
M.D. Johnson Sam Coonrod William Brennan Ralph Treuel 0.7 -0.4 4.68 5.78
George Soriano Bob Davies Reed Garrett Jordan Milbrath 0.5 -0.7 4.57 5.91
Jorge Mercedes Travis Dunlap Joe Galante Patrick Cassaday 0.4 -0.6 4.31 6.39
Zach King Dave Fitzgerald Barry Wohler Jordan Guerrero 0.7 -0.6 4.68 5.85
Jake Walters Jimmy Whisman Colby Miller Anthony Ortega 0.3 -0.4 4.70 5.85
Dylan Bice Manuel Rodriguez Blas Cedeno Daniel Stange 0.0 -0.6 4.58 5.85
Cody Mincey Bob Milacki Shawn Haviland Joe Oeschger 0.4 -0.7 4.78 5.97
Paul Campbell Jake McCasland Max Duval Jeff Livin 0.4 -0.7 4.77 6.03
Justin Evans Felix Villegas Gene Escat David Carpenter -0.2 -1.0 4.85 6.36
Bryan Mitchell Rodolfo Aguirre Wes Wilkerson Fernando Villalobos 0.0 -0.7 4.95 6.52
Andrew McInvale Justin Garcia Stacy Morgan Jermy Rodriguez -0.1 -0.8 4.87 6.72
Will Stewart Christopher Kirsch Matthew Spann Braulio Torres-Perez 0.1 -1.1 5.19 6.43

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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snakestl
10 days ago

What does Pablo Lopez’ line look like pitching in front of the St. Louis defense?

snakestl
10 days ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

How about his line in front of the Minnesota D? https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1616522475025596421

Werthlessmember
10 days ago
Reply to  snakestl

Nootbar for Lopez?