2022 ZiPS Projections: Baltimore Orioles

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles.

Batters

The history of the post-Earl Weaver Orioles has not been a happy one. Over his first stint with Baltimore, from 1968 to ’82, they were the winningest team in baseball, with 1,570 total wins, and averaged four wins per season more than the next-best team, the Reds, during that stretch. At no time during this era did the O’s finish below .500, and that even leaves out their last World Series championship in 1983. Weaver wasn’t just one of the best managers in baseball, but a very modern manager who used what analytics were available at the time.

But the failure of the O’s isn’t just a failure of managing. Weaver was great, but the team’s assembly line of young talent was a pivotal piece to the puzzle. While there are certainly some notable successes, the Orioles simply haven’t produced that much talent over the last 20–30 years. It certainly didn’t help that they placed a low priority on finding talent in Latin America for a long time, depriving them of a source that pretty much everyone else in baseball happily accessed.

You see those problems when you look at this offense. For a team rebuilding since mid-2018, the collection of offensive talent in the majors and high minors just isn’t all that impressive. The O’s have thrown a lot at the wall, but they have mostly ended up, over the last three years, with a lot of below-average-but-above-replacement hitters. Cedric Mullins appears to be working out, but they mostly seem to find useful players for the back of the 26-man roster or emergency Triple-A options, like Anthony Santander and DJ Stewart, but who have little real upside. Sadly, this even goes for Ryan Mountcastle to a degree; 33 homers was an impressive tally, but it’s not all that exciting for a first baseman who isn’t doing much else. Adley Rutschman looks terrific, but how much player development credit should you really get for drafting the consensus best college prospect with the first pick in the draft? If you won your fantasy league in 2015, I doubt you bragged about how clever you were to draft Mike Trout with the first pick.

Looking at the projections for the lineup, where is the likely source of upside outside of Rutschman and Mullins? There are simply a lot of players already in what should be their prime years who you hope to have a league-average season. Baltimore doesn’t look at all like a team ready to pounce like the 2015 Cubs or Astros, the 2018 Braves, or the 2020 White Sox. Now, Mike Elias took over a desolate, dysfunctional organization, and you can’t flip a switch and turn on an entire scouting operation in Latin America, but at some point, the O’s can’t win if they develop as many new players over five years than the Rays seem to do every year or two.

Despite the doom and gloom, there are some positives here. ZiPS likes Jordan Westburg as much as Steamer did and sees him becoming a league-average player at shortstop fairly quickly. It also likes Gunnar Henderson quite a bit as well, seeing his power develop very soon. Based on last year’s career projections, both are likely to rank in the ZiPS Top 100 prospects, as will Rutschman and one pitcher. It just feels like the O’s should be farther along right now.

Pitchers

On offense, at least, the Orioles have been able to corral a decent quantity of one-to-two WAR hitters. On the pitching staff? Not so much. It’s not a good sign when the fourth-highest WAR in a list of projects was a fellow that was designated for assignment a few months before (César Valdez).

I’m a fan of John Means, but he’s not particularly young and already in his arbitration years, so I expect him to be pitching in another uniform by the time the Orioles are actually good. ZiPS was a bit disappointed in the small regressions in his velocity and swinging-strike rate and doesn’t see the same strikeout upside that it did a year ago. Speaking of disappointments, ZiPS would likely have been happier if the Orioles couldn’t cross all the t’s and dot all the i’s in the last-minute signing of Jordan Lyles. Hopefully, the Orioles have abducted whoever was on the Brewers who had the magic formula for getting performance out of him.

Grayson Rodriguez was quite dominant across two levels in 2021, and the projections suggest a pitcher who could be a no. 3 starter in the majors right now. The O’s would be silly to use him that way in 2022, as letting him finish honing his impressive repertoire in the high minors is more important. One good indicator for his future is a lack of significant platoon split, for which he can likely give a lot of thanks to his changeup’s screwball-esque movement. Minor league translations can’t scout, but a heavy platoon split, especially for someone who will be used as a starter, can be a statistical implication of something missing from their toolkit.

ZiPS is less excited by D.L. Hall, but it’s not hard to understand the projection system’s lack of enthusiasm: he missed half the season in 2021, and unlike Rodriguez, he has significant control issues. Even with the disabled list being changed to the injured list, I can’t help but think a pitcher going by D.L. is really taunting the Fates.

From a developmental standpoint, I think Baltimore was arguably hurt more by the loss of 2020 than any other team. Everyone missed out, but the O’s had an impressive stable of pitching in the high minors, none particularly young or elite, that they would have liked to see in Triple-A and Double-A and who just needed the innings. Combined with decidedly mixed results, I’m not sure we know much more about the futures of Zac Lowther, Keegan Akin, or Dean Kremer than we did two years.

It remains to be seen how Drew Rom’s ho-hum velocity plays at Triple-A — the path of a young crafty veteran lefty prospect is a craggy one — but ZiPS is at least intrigued for the moment.

The O’s are almost certainly going to be the last-place team in the American League East in 2022. The real test will be if they are at least an interesting cellar dweller.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Cedric Mullins L 27 CF 658 593 83 157 30 6 24 62 50 123 27 7
Adley Rutschman B 24 C 556 485 77 128 23 2 21 69 58 99 2 2
Trey Mancini R 30 1B 626 566 82 154 33 2 27 85 49 136 0 0
Austin Hays R 26 LF 524 487 71 126 26 3 23 73 26 111 6 4
Ryan Mountcastle R 25 1B 585 541 74 145 26 2 29 93 34 151 3 2
Jordan Westburg R 23 SS 524 468 74 114 21 3 14 61 39 127 9 2
Anthony Santander B 27 RF 530 495 63 128 30 1 23 72 26 111 2 2
Ramón Urías R 28 SS 407 365 45 92 22 0 11 46 33 98 2 2
Rougned Odor L 28 2B 456 409 59 87 20 1 23 66 36 131 4 5
Patrick Dorrian L 26 3B 470 423 54 91 18 2 15 52 41 146 4 2
Brett Cumberland B 27 C 316 267 34 49 9 0 11 27 31 107 0 0
Greg Cullen L 25 2B 423 370 48 84 15 3 8 32 42 97 1 3
Rylan Bannon R 26 3B 446 395 46 83 18 2 17 51 43 104 7 2
Gunnar Henderson L 21 SS 468 424 55 90 20 2 16 64 36 149 9 1
Ryan McKenna R 25 CF 440 388 49 87 16 3 13 45 42 133 10 6
Terrin Vavra L 25 2B 339 299 39 73 14 2 7 27 33 71 8 4
Kyle Stowers L 24 RF 492 442 60 103 19 1 22 64 43 163 5 2
Mason McCoy R 27 SS 508 470 50 105 18 5 8 39 31 137 10 2
DJ Stewart L 28 LF 382 329 48 74 16 1 16 51 45 97 3 2
Jorge Mateo R 27 SS 435 412 46 98 20 7 10 39 17 120 17 8
Maverick Handley R 24 C 228 206 25 35 7 0 4 17 17 75 7 1
Joseph Ortiz R 23 SS 194 179 20 41 7 1 4 15 13 38 3 0
J.D. Mundy L 24 1B 336 308 45 73 17 0 13 53 26 82 1 0
Kelvin Gutierrez R 27 3B 442 409 41 96 13 3 9 40 27 108 5 2
Austin Wynns R 31 C 248 227 28 53 6 0 6 24 16 50 1 0
Zach Watson R 25 CF 409 384 41 82 14 2 17 53 15 120 12 3
Nick Ciuffo L 27 C 154 141 14 29 7 0 4 15 10 51 1 0
Cadyn Grenier R 25 SS 453 404 51 78 16 2 9 37 39 153 7 3
Maikel Franco R 29 3B 451 417 41 100 22 0 16 55 28 67 0 0
Tyler Nevin R 25 1B 495 446 56 105 21 1 16 54 39 108 2 1
Chris Shaw L 28 LF 422 386 51 90 20 2 19 59 29 129 1 1
Johnny Rizer L 25 CF 395 372 44 88 14 2 10 41 17 100 8 3
Jahmai Jones R 24 2B 460 417 49 94 16 3 13 43 35 120 9 5
Pat Valaika R 29 2B 390 366 36 86 14 0 11 42 19 98 1 2
Lucius Fox B 24 2B 383 339 44 71 15 3 6 29 38 103 21 6
Seth Mejias-Brean R 31 LF 364 337 39 80 12 2 9 36 24 81 4 2
Richie Martin R 27 SS 254 230 22 50 8 2 4 17 16 64 6 4
Stevie Wilkerson B 30 2B 274 249 26 54 12 1 6 19 19 82 2 2
Andrew Daschbach R 24 1B 410 370 45 77 15 1 13 42 28 141 1 0
Robert Neustrom L 25 LF 476 435 57 100 24 2 13 54 35 111 6 2
Ramon Rodriguez R 23 C 215 203 25 47 8 0 6 21 9 41 0 0
Cody Roberts R 26 C 188 171 19 34 6 0 3 15 14 59 0 0
Doran Turchin R 24 RF 339 304 31 57 13 1 10 30 26 122 5 2
Yusniel Diaz R 25 RF 320 291 33 58 11 2 8 31 24 98 2 4
Toby Welk R 25 3B 417 377 44 79 15 2 10 36 28 105 5 2
Ryne Ogren R 25 C 314 287 31 56 10 1 4 22 19 77 2 1
Shayne Fontana L 25 LF 371 334 39 67 12 3 9 28 31 94 5 3
Ryan Ripken L 28 1B 245 232 20 42 7 1 3 16 10 77 1 0

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Cedric Mullins .265 .326 .457 110 .192 .298 5.7 7 3.6 Johnny Damon
Adley Rutschman .264 .347 .449 115 .186 .293 5.7 2 3.3 Bill Freehan
Trey Mancini .272 .337 .481 119 .208 .315 6.0 -4 1.7 Jeff Conine
Austin Hays .259 .305 .466 106 .207 .292 5.1 2 1.3 Wes Chamberlain
Ryan Mountcastle .268 .313 .484 112 .216 .321 5.6 -1 1.3 Wil Cordero
Jordan Westburg .244 .312 .391 90 .147 .306 4.5 -1 1.2 Jason Donald
Anthony Santander .259 .299 .463 103 .204 .291 5.0 3 1.1 Mark Ryal
Ramón Urías .252 .325 .403 97 .151 .316 4.7 -3 1.0 Brendan Harris
Rougned Odor .213 .288 .435 93 .222 .251 4.1 0 0.8 Todd Carey
Patrick Dorrian .215 .288 .374 78 .158 .290 3.7 6 0.7 Craig Kuzmic
Brett Cumberland .184 .307 .341 77 .157 .255 3.5 2 0.7 Jeff Ontiveros
Greg Cullen .227 .322 .349 83 .122 .287 3.8 1 0.6 Chris Lombardozzi
Rylan Bannon .210 .292 .395 85 .185 .241 4.0 0 0.5 Scott White
Gunnar Henderson .212 .275 .382 77 .170 .286 3.8 0 0.5 Giomar Guevara
Ryan McKenna .224 .305 .381 86 .157 .306 4.0 0 0.5 Xavier Paul
Terrin Vavra .244 .320 .375 89 .130 .299 4.3 -2 0.4 Ernest Riles
Kyle Stowers .233 .304 .430 97 .197 .315 4.6 -2 0.4 Rick Sofield
Mason McCoy .223 .271 .334 64 .111 .298 3.3 8 0.4 Mike Ramsey
DJ Stewart .225 .325 .426 102 .201 .269 4.8 -4 0.3 Pat Brady
Jorge Mateo .238 .274 .393 79 .155 .312 3.8 0 0.3 Luis Bolivar
Maverick Handley .170 .246 .262 39 .092 .244 2.3 10 0.3 Dave Liddell
Joseph Ortiz .229 .289 .346 72 .117 .270 3.7 1 0.2 Kevin Perkins
J.D. Mundy .237 .301 .419 93 .182 .282 4.5 0 0.2 Adam LaRoche
Kelvin Gutierrez .235 .287 .347 72 .112 .298 3.5 3 0.1 Mendy Lopez 로페즈
Austin Wynns .233 .289 .339 71 .106 .275 3.5 0 0.1 Chris Ashby
Zach Watson .214 .249 .393 71 .180 .263 3.5 3 0.1 Dan Phillips
Nick Ciuffo .206 .255 .340 60 .135 .291 3.0 2 0.1 Steve Swisher
Cadyn Grenier .193 .274 .309 59 .116 .285 2.9 6 0.1 Brett King
Maikel Franco .240 .288 .408 87 .168 .251 4.2 -4 0.0 Pete Rose Jr.
Tyler Nevin .235 .301 .395 87 .159 .276 4.2 1 0.0 Ryan Jones
Chris Shaw .233 .294 .443 97 .210 .298 4.6 -6 -0.1 Dan Briggs
Johnny Rizer .237 .277 .366 73 .129 .298 3.6 0 -0.1 Tommy Winrow
Jahmai Jones .225 .288 .372 78 .146 .285 3.7 -3 -0.2 Doug Saunders
Pat Valaika .235 .272 .363 71 .128 .292 3.4 1 -0.2 John Hotchkiss
Lucius Fox .209 .296 .324 69 .115 .283 3.6 -2 -0.2 Rod Smith
Seth Mejias-Brean .237 .291 .365 77 .128 .287 3.8 1 -0.4 Marlin McPhail
Richie Martin .217 .282 .322 64 .104 .284 3.0 -2 -0.4 Jason Bowers
Stevie Wilkerson .217 .278 .345 69 .129 .298 3.2 -1 -0.4 Trace Coquillette
Andrew Daschbach .208 .281 .359 73 .151 .296 3.5 4 -0.4 John Hanley
Robert Neustrom .230 .289 .384 81 .154 .280 3.9 -2 -0.5 David Murphy
Ramon Rodriguez .232 .266 .360 68 .128 .263 3.4 -5 -0.5 Hector Kuilan
Cody Roberts .199 .261 .287 49 .088 .284 2.5 -4 -0.8 Matt Garrick
Doran Turchin .188 .263 .336 62 .148 .273 3.0 0 -1.0 Matt Sachse
Yusniel Diaz .199 .266 .333 62 .134 .270 2.8 -1 -1.2 Chad Alexander
Toby Welk .210 .271 .340 65 .130 .263 3.2 -7 -1.3 Ryan Stegall
Ryne Ogren .195 .253 .279 45 .084 .252 2.4 -5 -1.3 Jose Molina
Shayne Fontana .201 .273 .335 65 .135 .251 3.1 -5 -1.5 Randy Rigsby
Ryan Ripken .181 .217 .259 29 .078 .257 1.9 1 -1.8 Chris Tremie

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
John Means L 29 11 10 4.35 27 27 147.0 139 71 29 34 132 4.74
Grayson Rodriguez R 22 6 6 4.59 24 24 98.0 92 50 15 37 101 4.39
Drew Rom L 22 6 6 4.85 24 20 104.0 112 56 15 35 80 4.67
César Valdez R 37 4 4 4.34 34 7 74.7 79 36 11 19 63 4.29
Kyle Bradish R 25 6 6 4.94 25 22 102.0 100 56 16 50 105 4.81
Tanner Scott L 27 5 3 3.73 63 0 60.3 49 25 6 35 80 3.81
Kyle Brnovich R 24 4 5 5.00 23 20 93.7 99 52 19 27 86 5.01
Keegan Akin L 27 6 7 5.06 25 20 101.3 108 57 19 38 94 5.01
Cole Sulser R 32 5 4 3.94 55 1 59.3 51 26 9 23 69 4.04
Dillon Tate R 28 4 4 4.37 52 4 72.0 72 35 9 25 58 4.53
Jorge López R 29 7 8 5.24 33 21 115.0 124 67 20 46 101 5.09
Cameron Bishop L 26 4 5 5.10 20 13 77.7 82 44 10 37 59 4.92
Ryan Conroy R 25 4 4 4.76 26 6 68.0 72 36 8 29 51 4.62
Zac Lowther L 26 6 7 5.22 22 19 91.3 93 53 16 42 84 5.19
Logan Gillaspie R 25 3 3 4.76 28 6 64.3 69 34 10 21 49 4.84
Nick Vespi L 26 5 5 4.64 30 5 54.3 53 28 7 27 52 4.60
Paul Fry L 29 4 4 4.24 62 0 57.3 49 27 5 35 64 4.17
Kevin Smith L 25 5 6 5.38 23 21 88.7 89 53 16 54 91 5.47
D.L. Hall L 23 3 3 5.24 12 12 55.0 50 32 9 38 62 5.29
Bruce Zimmermann L 27 5 7 5.46 21 20 97.3 108 59 20 39 84 5.48
Mike Baumann R 26 4 6 5.40 23 19 81.7 87 49 13 41 66 5.29
Alexander Wells L 25 6 8 5.49 24 19 98.3 114 60 21 25 69 5.47
Garrett Stallings R 24 7 10 5.54 24 20 102.3 125 63 21 21 60 5.44
Cionel Pérez L 26 3 3 4.80 48 4 60.0 57 32 9 34 62 4.86
Tyler Wells R 27 3 4 4.92 38 4 60.3 56 33 13 18 68 4.72
Dean Kremer R 26 6 8 5.64 27 25 111.7 122 70 23 47 103 5.41
Travis Lakins Sr. R 28 4 4 4.91 45 3 55.0 56 30 9 26 50 5.07
Ty Blach L 31 3 5 5.59 25 17 83.7 100 52 16 24 54 5.34
Claudio Custodio R 31 3 4 5.06 29 3 53.3 58 30 8 20 36 5.07
Marcos Diplán R 25 3 4 4.91 41 2 55.0 52 30 9 30 56 5.02
Chris Ellis R 29 3 5 5.63 26 16 84.7 89 53 18 40 75 5.77
Brooks Kriske R 28 3 3 4.71 38 0 42.0 37 22 6 26 51 4.61
Jordan Lyles R 31 8 12 5.77 29 26 149.7 165 96 37 51 126 5.81
Ofelky Peralta R 25 5 8 5.80 24 19 94.7 102 61 17 57 79 5.81
Matt Harvey R 33 7 10 5.87 25 24 110.3 131 72 25 35 83 5.68
Cody Sedlock R 27 4 6 5.82 23 15 85.0 93 55 16 44 69 5.70
Konner Wade R 30 3 4 5.65 23 7 78.0 94 49 18 19 49 5.81
Fernando Abad L 36 2 2 5.06 42 0 42.7 47 24 8 10 33 4.84
Tyler Burch R 24 4 4 5.14 34 0 42.0 45 24 9 13 39 5.25
Dusten Knight R 31 2 2 5.22 38 0 39.7 41 23 8 16 39 5.20
Bryan Baker R 27 3 4 5.31 44 0 42.3 40 25 7 28 47 5.24
Ryan Hartman L 28 4 6 5.98 23 17 96.3 112 64 26 28 78 6.10
David Lebron R 28 3 4 5.79 25 6 70.0 71 45 13 45 72 5.64
Isaac Mattson R 26 3 3 5.29 36 0 51.0 50 30 10 24 48 5.43
Diogenes Almengo R 27 4 5 5.32 40 0 47.3 48 28 7 29 43 5.31
Thomas Eshelman R 28 3 5 6.10 25 10 69.3 87 47 17 14 36 6.06
Rico Garcia R 28 7 11 6.02 31 24 124.0 140 83 31 55 109 6.15
Mickey Jannis R 34 3 6 6.17 19 13 86.0 105 59 18 36 50 6.17
Blaine Knight R 26 4 7 6.17 22 15 86.0 104 59 18 34 51 6.08
Adam Plutko R 30 4 5 5.93 38 10 88.0 99 58 23 30 68 6.19
Steven Klimek R 28 4 5 5.57 36 0 53.3 55 33 9 31 49 5.45
Joey Krehbiel R 29 2 3 5.60 50 0 53.0 55 33 12 23 52 5.58
Felix Bautista R 27 2 4 6.03 32 0 37.3 35 25 7 30 41 6.07
Tim Naughton R 26 3 4 5.91 40 0 45.7 45 30 7 37 45 5.76
Gray Fenter R 26 4 7 6.45 22 14 75.3 80 54 15 52 64 6.34
Conner Greene R 27 4 6 6.31 32 8 71.3 79 50 16 44 62 6.42
Tyler Joyner R 26 3 5 6.16 26 0 49.7 58 34 11 22 34 6.20
Spenser Watkins R 29 5 8 6.49 24 17 97.0 120 70 25 36 67 6.42

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
John Means 8.1 2.1 1.8 5.6% 21.7% .270 104 96 2.3 Bud Black
Grayson Rodriguez 9.3 3.4 1.4 8.8% 24.0% .293 99 101 1.2 Chin-hui Tsao
Drew Rom 6.9 3.0 1.3 7.7% 17.5% .302 93 107 1.0 Manny Parra
César Valdez 7.6 2.3 1.3 5.9% 19.7% .304 104 96 0.9 Dennis Lamp
Kyle Bradish 9.3 4.4 1.4 11.0% 23.1% .302 92 109 0.9 John Pacella
Tanner Scott 11.9 5.2 0.9 13.1% 30.0% .305 121 82 0.8 Rod Scurry
Kyle Brnovich 8.3 2.6 1.8 6.7% 21.2% .299 91 110 0.8 Andy Sonnanstine
Keegan Akin 8.3 3.4 1.7 8.5% 21.0% .305 89 112 0.7 Trey Moore
Cole Sulser 10.5 3.5 1.4 9.2% 27.7% .286 115 87 0.7 Stan Belinda
Dillon Tate 7.3 3.1 1.1 7.9% 18.4% .292 103 97 0.6 Rafael Montalvo
Jorge López 7.9 3.6 1.6 8.9% 19.6% .306 86 116 0.6 Jay Tibbs
Cameron Bishop 6.8 4.3 1.2 10.6% 16.9% .300 89 113 0.5 Dusty Hughes
Ryan Conroy 6.8 3.8 1.1 9.6% 16.8% .302 95 105 0.5 Rosman Garcia
Zac Lowther 8.3 4.1 1.6 10.3% 20.5% .295 87 115 0.5 Brandon Claussen
Logan Gillaspie 6.9 2.9 1.4 7.4% 17.4% .298 95 105 0.5 Josh Stevens
Nick Vespi 8.6 4.5 1.2 11.2% 21.5% .301 98 102 0.4 Dan Ricabal
Paul Fry 10.0 5.5 0.8 13.6% 24.9% .297 107 94 0.4 Tim Fortugno
Kevin Smith 9.2 5.5 1.6 13.2% 22.3% .302 84 119 0.4 Luis Martinez
D.L. Hall 10.1 6.2 1.5 15.1% 24.6% .293 86 116 0.3 Randy Johnson
Bruce Zimmermann 7.8 3.6 1.8 8.9% 19.2% .304 83 121 0.3 Jason Stanford
Mike Baumann 7.3 4.5 1.4 11.1% 17.8% .300 84 119 0.3 Chris Hook
Alexander Wells 6.3 2.3 1.9 5.8% 16.0% .299 82 121 0.3 Bobby Livingston
Garrett Stallings 5.3 1.8 1.8 4.7% 13.3% .303 82 122 0.2 Andrew Baldwin
Cionel Pérez 9.3 5.1 1.4 12.6% 23.0% .296 94 106 0.2 Armando Almanza
Tyler Wells 10.1 2.7 1.9 7.1% 26.9% .283 92 109 0.2 Julio Mateo
Dean Kremer 8.3 3.8 1.9 9.4% 20.6% .307 80 125 0.1 Greg Roscoe
Travis Lakins Sr. 8.2 4.3 1.5 10.6% 20.3% .297 92 108 0.1 Ernie Camacho
Ty Blach 5.8 2.6 1.7 6.5% 14.6% .307 81 124 0.1 Lee Gronkiewicz
Claudio Custodio 6.1 3.4 1.4 8.4% 15.2% .294 89 112 0.1 Steve Comer
Marcos Diplán 9.2 4.9 1.5 12.2% 22.9% .291 92 108 0.1 Brandon Puffer
Chris Ellis 8.0 4.3 1.9 10.5% 19.6% .291 80 124 0.0 Eric Junge 연지
Brooks Kriske 10.9 5.6 1.3 13.8% 27.1% .301 96 104 0.0 Johnny Ruffin 러핀
Jordan Lyles 7.6 3.1 2.2 7.8% 19.1% .291 78 128 0.0 Dennis Martinez
Ofelky Peralta 7.5 5.4 1.6 12.9% 17.9% .300 78 128 -0.1 Mike Lumley
Matt Harvey 6.8 2.9 2.0 7.1% 16.8% .306 77 130 -0.1 Brian Moehler
Cody Sedlock 7.3 4.7 1.7 11.3% 17.7% .300 78 129 -0.1 Charlie Manning
Konner Wade 5.7 2.2 2.1 5.5% 14.2% .298 80 125 -0.1 Matt Ginter
Fernando Abad 7.0 2.1 1.7 5.5% 18.0% .298 89 112 -0.1 Eric Gunderson
Tyler Burch 8.4 2.8 1.9 7.1% 21.2% .300 88 114 -0.2 Jimmy Serrano 세라노
Dusten Knight 8.8 3.6 1.8 9.1% 22.3% .300 87 115 -0.2 Mark Small
Bryan Baker 10.0 6.0 1.5 14.4% 24.2% .300 85 117 -0.2 Regular Bob Gibson
Ryan Hartman 7.3 2.6 2.4 6.6% 18.3% .297 76 132 -0.3 Randy Leek
David Lebron 9.3 5.8 1.7 13.8% 22.2% .304 78 128 -0.3 Mike MacDougal
Isaac Mattson 8.5 4.2 1.8 10.6% 21.2% .284 85 117 -0.3 Brady Raggio
Diogenes Almengo 8.2 5.5 1.3 13.2% 19.6% .299 85 118 -0.3 Pete Sikaras
Thomas Eshelman 4.7 1.8 2.2 4.6% 11.8% .297 74 135 -0.4 A.J. Sager
Rico Garcia 7.9 4.0 2.3 9.8% 19.3% .300 75 133 -0.4 Todd Van Poppel
Mickey Jannis 5.2 3.8 1.9 9.1% 12.6% .302 73 136 -0.4 Shawn Boskie
Blaine Knight 5.3 3.6 1.9 8.6% 12.9% .301 73 136 -0.4 Mike Hinckley
Adam Plutko 7.0 3.1 2.4 7.7% 17.4% .287 76 131 -0.4 Nate Snell
Steven Klimek 8.3 5.2 1.5 12.7% 20.0% .301 81 123 -0.5 Ryan Baker
Joey Krehbiel 8.8 3.9 2.0 9.8% 22.1% .295 81 124 -0.5 Jack Hardy
Felix Bautista 9.9 7.2 1.7 16.9% 23.0% .289 75 133 -0.5 Eric Cammack
Tim Naughton 8.9 7.3 1.4 17.0% 20.6% .299 77 131 -0.6 Jeff Smith
Gray Fenter 7.6 6.2 1.8 14.6% 17.9% .294 70 143 -0.6 Tom Davey
Conner Greene 7.8 5.6 2.0 13.1% 18.4% .300 72 139 -0.7 James Warden
Tyler Joyner 6.2 4.0 2.0 9.6% 14.9% .297 73 136 -0.8 Brian Wolfe
Spenser Watkins 6.2 3.3 2.3 8.1% 15.1% .305 70 144 -0.8 Felipe Lira

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Dmjn53
8 months ago

Here to point out that DL Hall’s top comp is Randy Johnson

darren
8 months ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

Nor do they become Randy Johnson. Or Randy Johnson. Or Frank Thomas. Or Frank Thomas. Or Mike Crudale.

tz
8 months ago
Reply to  darren

Or Steve Ontiveros.

PigBodinemember
8 months ago
Reply to  darren

Played travel hockey as a kid w Mike Crudale. Dude was hilarious

Buhners Rocket Armmember
8 months ago
Reply to  Dmjn53

23 year old randy Johnson had 128 BB in 140 IP in AA. Yuck. I wonder what his career projection was in the way-back machine.

tz
8 months ago

We need a ZiPs reprojection of Randy Johnson from several points in his twenties.

tz
8 months ago
Reply to  tz

From Baseball Reference’s similarity scores – an very rough idea of who the Big Unit’s peers were:

Through age 27:

1. Chris Nabholz
2. Ken Kravec
3. AJ Burnett
4. Mike Minor
5. Justin Thompson
6. Chris Capuano
7. Zane Smith
8. Wade Miley
9. Danny Duffy
10. Jonathan Sanchez

Career:

1. Clemens
2. Glavine
3. Seaver
4. Feller
5. Palmer
6. Grove
7. Gibson
8. Sabathia
9. Carlton
10. Mussina

Jason Bmember
8 months ago
Reply to  tz

What the kids these days refer to as a “glow up” I think…