Half a Dozen Era Committee Honorees for the Hall of Fame… But Not Without Heartbreak
Sunday evening’s announcement of the National Baseball Hall of Fame’s Early Baseball and Golden Days Era Committee voting results brought a mixture of elation and sadness, as well as some measure of closure. Six candidates were elected to the Hall via the two ballots for long-retired players and managers, including three of its most famous omissions (Early Baseball’s Buck O’Neil, and Golden Days’ Gil Hodges and Minnie Miñoso), two of the three living candidates (Golden Days’ Jim Kaat and Tony Oliva), and a pioneer who stands as the first professional Black player in history (Bud Fowler). But as a bracing reminder of near-misses and the collision between baseball and human mortality, Dick Allen — who died on December 7, 2020, one day before his candidacy would have been considered if not for the coronavirus pandemic — fell a single vote short of election for the second time in a row.
The voting by the two 16-member panels took place on Sunday in Orlando, Florida, where the MLB Winter Meetings would have been held this week if not for their cancellation due to MLB’s decision to lock out the players following the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement (the MiLB portion is still taking place). Each voter was allowed to include up to four of the 10 candidates on their ballot, and the voting was done in secret.
By far the most popular candidate up for election on either ballot was O’Neil, whose career as a player began in 1937 with the Kansas City Monarchs. O’Neil played alongside Hall of Famers such as Satchel Paige, Willard Brown, Bullet Rogan, and Hilton Smith, then managed the Monarchs, but it was his post-career work that elevated him into the pantheon. He was a pioneering scout who connected Ernie Banks to the Cubs and Elston Howard to the Yankees, signed Lou Brock, and scouted Lee Smith. He was the first Black coach in the AL/NL majors. And finally, he was an ambassador for the Negro Leagues, playing an outsized role in raising awareness of Black baseball and in recognizing its greats. O’Neil spent 21 years on the Veterans Committee, offering eyewitness testimony on his cohorts; served as subject and narrator in Ken Burns’ nine-part documentary series Baseball; co-founded the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum in Kansas City; and crusaded for Negro Leagues players deserving election to the Hall.
O’Neil himself came up short in the 2006 Special Committee on the Negro Leagues election, which produced 17 honorees, all deceased. That ballot, for which he was one of just two living candidates (Miñoso was the other), was the last time that Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball candidates were considered for election until this one.
O’Neil died on October 6, 2006, less than eight months after being snubbed, but not before delivering an impassioned speech on behalf of the deceased honorees, “people who helped build the bridge across the chasm of prejudice,” to use his words. The Hall introduced the Buck O’Neil Lifetime Achievement Award in 2008, and a bronze statue of him now greets visitors in the museum lobby. At last, he’ll have a bronze plaque to go with it, and the institution will be all the richer for it. Frankly, the Hall needed him more than he needed the Hall, more on which below.
After that 2006 election, the Hall considered the book closed on the Negro Leagues pending more information from the research community. That research has since come forward as part of a massive, ongoing effort to flesh out the statistical record for Black baseball, the fruits of which are now available at Seamheads and Baseball Reference. Meanwhile, last December Major League Baseball announced its decision to officially recognize seven Negro Leagues that operated between 1920 and ’48 as major leagues, making the statistics and accomplishments of some 3,400 players part of the major league record.
That momentum certainly carried over into the construction of this ballot, which was aided by five historians with expertise in Black baseball. Six of the 10 candidates either played in the Negro Leagues or its predecessors, with an additional one, Fowler, carving out a career in white leagues before (and after) the color line was drawn. That subset of seven candidates produced four of the top five vote-getters, including the two who received the requisite 75% necessary for election:
| Player | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|
| Buck O’Neil | 13 | 81.3% |
| Bud Fowler | 12 | 75.0% |
| Vic Harris | 10 | 62.5% |
| John Donaldson | 8 | 50.0% |
| Allie Reynolds | 6 | 37.4% |
| Lefty O’Doul | 5 | 31.3% |
| George Scales | 4 | 25.0% |
| Bill Dahlen | ≤3 | ≤18.8% |
| Grant Johnson | ≤3 | ≤18.8% |
| Dick Redding | ≤3 | ≤18.8% |
Fowler, who was born John W. Jackson Jr. and who was raised in Cooperstown, was Black baseball’s original pioneer, its first acknowledged professional, with a career that’s believed to have spanned from 1878 to 1904. An exceptional hitter, pitcher, and fielder who could play any position (sometimes catcher, but mainly second base), he was believed to be of major league-star quality, and is recorded as having hit .308 in over 2,000 at-bats in 10 seasons of organized baseball.
Alas, the color of Fowler’s skin and the prejudice that accompanied it prevented him from ascending to the majors. Playing on integrated teams before the color line was fully entrenched — even captaining some — he traveled a hard road, unable to stay in one place for long before the objections of teammates or opponents forced him to move on, even given his considerable talents. In the latter stages of his career, he became one of the game’s first significant Black promoters, involved in forming leagues and teams.
Fowler didn’t get further than the 94-member preliminary ballot in 2006, the first time he was considered in a Hall of Fame context. Even given his Cooperstown roots, he had gone largely unrecognized until 2013, the centennial of his death, when the street leading to Doubleday Field was renamed in his honor. Last year, SABR’s Nineteenth Century Committee voted Fowler as its 2020 Overlooked 19th Century Baseball Legend.
Interestingly enough, the next-highest finisher in the voting was Harris, the only other Black candidate on this ballot who didn’t make it past the preliminary stage in 2006; Donaldson, Johnson, Redding, and Scales were among the 39 finalists, as was O’Neil. As a fiery All-Star outfielder and manager with the Homestead Grays, Harris achieved levels of success unparalleled in the annals of the major Negro Leagues, winning seven pennants and compiling a .663 winning percentage while overseeing Hall of Famers such as Josh Gibson and Buck Leonard.
To these eyes, one of the bigger surprises in the results was the low standing of Dahlen, a turn-of-the-century shortstop who excelled on both sides of the ball, and who helped the Brooklyn Superbas and New York Giants to two pennants apiece. The owner of the fourth-longest hitting streak in major league history (42 games in 1894), he ranks 11th among shortstops in JAWS, between Alan Trammell and Barry Larkin. I included Dahlen on my four-man virtual ballot; O’Neil, Fowler, and Johnson were the others. But with so many white major leaguers from that era already inducted, and so many strong Black candidates finally getting long-overdue opportunities for consideration, it’s hard to get too worked up over Dahlen slipping below the radar.
The 16-member panel that considered the Early Baseball ballot consisted of Hall of Famers Bert Blyleven, Fergie Jenkins, John Schuerholz, Ozzie Smith and Joe Torre; major league executives Bill DeWitt, Ken Kendrick and Tony Reagins; and veteran media members/historians Gary Ashwill, Adrian Burgos Jr., Leslie Heaphy, Jim Henneman, Justice Hill, Steve Hirdt, Rick Hummel and John Thorn. Hall of Fame Chairman of the Board Jane Forbes Clark and Hall of Famer Bud Selig served as non-voting co-chairs. Ashwill, Burgos, and Heaphy were three of the five experts on Black baseball who served on the Special Early Baseball Overview Committee that constructed this ballot; Hennemen, Hirdt, and Hummel were part of that process as well.
Jenkins, Schuerholz, Smith, Torre, DeWitt, Kendrick, Regins, Burgos, and Hirdt all pulled double duty in this process, serving on the Golden Days panel as well, as did Selig as a voting member. They were joined by Hall of Famers Rod Carew and Mike Schmidt, executives Al Avila and Kim Ng, and media members/historians Jaime Jarrin and Jack O’Connell. Clark served as the non-voting chairman.
Remarkably, the Golden Days panel allotted 61 out of the 64 possible votes to the top five candidates:
| Player | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|
| Minnie Miñoso | 14 | 87.5% |
| Gil Hodges | 12 | 75.0% |
| Jim Kaat | 12 | 75.0% |
| Tony Oliva | 12 | 75.0% |
| Dick Allen | 11 | 68.8% |
| Ken Boyer | ≤3 | ≤18.8% |
| Roger Maris | ≤3 | ≤18.8% |
| Danny Murtaugh | ≤3 | ≤18.8% |
| Billy Pierce | ≤3 | ≤18.8% |
| Maury Wills | ≤3 | ≤18.8% |
Miñoso “was the Jackie Robinson for all Latinos,” as Hall of Famer Orlando Cepeda once said, referring to the fact that the Cuban Comet was the first Black Latino player in either the National or American Leagues when he arrived in 1949. Blocked first by the color line, he starred in a three-year stint with the Negro National League’s New York Cubans, but even after being signed by the Cleveland Indians, he bumped up against an informal quota system, as the team already had Larry Doby, Luke Easter, and Paige on its roster. Thus Miñoso spent the better part of the 1949 and ’50 seasons tearing up the Pacific Coast League. An early 1951 trade to the White Sox opened a path to playing time, and he spent that season and the next 10 as one of the AL’s top players, making the All-Star team in seven seasons, winning three Gold Gloves, outproducing every other AL player except Mickey Mantle in WAR, and becoming an icon on the South Side of Chicago.
Miñoso never generated much heat on the BBWAA ballot, in part because his late-career cameos in 1976 and ’80 reset his five-year waiting periods and moved him further from the voters who saw him play; he peaked at 21.1% in 1988, and never topped 20% again in 11 more turns. While his career in the Negro Leagues made him eligible for consideration via the 2006 election, he fell short. The belief later expressed by Burgos, who was on that committee as well, was that voters were only allowed to consider his Negro Leagues career in that context, and not his long and successful career in the AL and NL. That injustice, and the overall excellence of his career, cast him as the single most deserving candidate outside the Hall of Fame, at least to these eyes.
After missing election by three votes on the 2012 Golden Era ballot, Miñoso missed by four votes on the next one three years later. “Don’t tell me that maybe I’ll get in after I pass away,” he said in his final interview. “I don’t want it to happen after I pass. I want it while I’m here, because I want to enjoy it.” Alas, Miñoso died on March 1, 2015, somewhere in the general vicinity of his 90th birthday. As is the case with O’Neil, that he’s not here to enjoy his election makes the honor a particularly bittersweet one.
Hodges has been dead for nearly 50 years, having collapsed due to a heart attack on April 2, 1972 at the age of 47. An eight-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glove winner, he was the first baseman for six pennant-winning Dodgers teams, including their 1955 and ’59 champions. When he retired, his 370 home runs stood as the NL record for a right-handed batter, though the mark was quickly surpassed by Willie Mays. He later managed the Senators and the Mets, overseeing the latter’s rise from a ninth-place finish in a 10-team league to surprise World Series winners in 1969.
From an electoral standpoint, Hodges stands as the ultimate hard-luck candidate. He surpassed 60% of the vote three times on the BBWAA ballot, peaking at 63.4% in 1983, his final year of eligibility. Considered at least 10 times by the old Veterans Committee, he allegedly fell one vote short in 1993, when, according to biographer Danny Peary, committee leader Ted Williams would not allow the ailing Roy Campanella to vote by phone and cast what would have been the vote to put him over the top. Hodges later led all candidates via the 2003 and ’05 expanded VC voting before slipping in ’07 and ’09. After receiving 56.3% from the Golden Era Committee in 2012, he finished in the “less than three votes” boat in ’15, so it’s fair to say his rocketing to election here was unforeseen.
With his election comes my ability to retire what I call the Hodges caveat. Outside of currently eligible candidates, he stood as the only one even to cross the 50% threshold without eventually getting elected via either the Veterans or Era Committees, an exception of which anyone who’s followed my work for the past two decades is almost certainly aware. In all likelihood, a much less savory cast of 10th-year BBWAA candidates — Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, and Sammy Sosa — will assume that vacated spot when the results are announced on January 25, but for the moment, the dubious honor belongs to Maris, who topped out at 43.1% in 1988.
Speaking of retiring one of my well-worn staples, Oliva has broken the “Rule of 2,000.” He collected “only” 1,917 hits in a career shortened by an endless series of knee injuries, and has thus become the first player from the post-1960 expansion era to be elected either by the writers or committees with fewer than 2,000 hits. For the sake of Allen, Bobby Grich and Buster Posey, I’m happy to see this one fall by the wayside. Oliva wasn’t far off from “the Hodges line,” peaking at 47.3% in 1988, his seventh year of eligibility, but only topping 40% once after that.
In contrast to the four deceased honorees from the two ballots, Oliva and Kaat — who were teammates on the Twins from 1962 to mid-’73, when the former was traded to the White Sox — are both very much alive at 83 years old, offering hope that even if BBWAA voters pitch another shutout this year, there will be living honorees in Cooperstown next July 24. Oliva, a Cuban-born right fielder, made eight straight All-Star teams from 1964-71 and won three batting titles, including two in his first two full seasons (1964, accompanied by AL Rookie of the Year honors, and ’65). That early run put him on what appeared to be a Hall of Fame path, but an endless series of knee problems caught up to him, costing him most of the 1972 season and turning him into a lesser hitter over the final four seasons of his career. He fell just one vote short on the 2015 Golden Era ballot, tying Allen for the high mark on what was, alas, a shutout.
Kaat, who fell two votes short on that ballot, was a lefty who pitched forever, winning 283 games over the course of a 25-year career while adding 16 Gold Gloves and making three All-Star teams. By his own admission more of a second or third starter than an ace — as he said on MLB Network moments after the announcement — he made just three All-Star teams and received Cy Young votes in one season. He received a tepid reception from BBWAA voters, peaking at 29.6% in 1993, his fifth year of eligibility, and only occasionally topping 25% thereafter. For all of my familiar critiques of Hodges, whose numbers when adjusted for the bandbox of Brooklyn’s Ebbets Field simply don’t shine that brightly, it’s the election of Kaat that I have the hardest time grappling with, as he’s 112th among starters in JAWS, and 109th in my experimental, workload-adjusted version, S-JAWS.
That Allen, a heavy-hitting seven-time All-Star, MVP and Rookie of the Year winner, fell one vote short for a second time in a row is certainly unprecedented in Era Committee history. It might be unprecedented as far as all of the Hall’s small committees are concerned, but we’ll never know without input from the institution. Prior to the 2003 expansion to allow all living Hall of Famers and award winners to vote, the Hall did not release the vote totals for Veterans Committee elections, so aside from an apparent leak, such as in the case of Hodges circa 1993, we don’t know who just missed by a whisker.
For the family and friends of Allen this has to be a particularly heartbreaking blow. He was a controversial and often misunderstood figure throughout his 15-year career, mishandled by the Phillies at the outset; they sent him to integrate professional baseball in Arkansas in 1962 without giving him any idea what to expect, and after an altercation with a white teammate in ’65, he took to wearing a batting helmet in the field to protect himself from projectiles thrown at him. During much of his time in the majors, writers — virtually all of them white — patronizingly called him Richie instead of his preferred name, Dick, and generally assumed the worst about his behavior. His image has since undergone considerable rehabilitation as he’s been viewed in a more sympathetic light (sabermetrician Craig Wright worked hard to undo the damage of Bill James writing that Allen “did more to keep his teams from winning than anybody else who ever played major league baseball” in The Politics of Glory). Last year, the Phillies retired his number 15 in a socially distanced ceremony, breaking their own longstanding policy of limiting the honor to Hall of Famers.
Alas, Allen was suffering from cancer at the time, and did not live to see his candidacy up for review. According to the schedule, it will be another five years, on the 2027 Golden Days ballot, before he is eligible again. If there’s any silver lining to this, it’s that with the election of the other four candidates from this period, his top competition has been eliminated, with Wills the only other candidate who’s received at least 50% from a previous Era Committee. It still stinks.
Allen’s supporters — and I count myself as one, in case you’re new to these parts — won’t want to hear it, and likewise for those focused on performance-based standards such as WAR and JAWS, since none of Hodges, Kaat, or Oliva fare well by those metrics, certainly not as well as Allen; their election carries some ramifications regarding current and future BBWAA candidates, though this isn’t another Harold Baines moment, and I don’t want to dwell too much on it here. But putting that aside, Sunday was a very good day for the Hall. As I noted at the end of my Donaldson profile, I believe that O’Neil’s candidacy represented a crucial pivot point for the institution, which has weathered considerable criticism over the past few decades for its exclusions, whether for the likes of Pete Rose and various PED-linked players due to their self-inflicted black marks, or for more popular, higher-character players such as Hodges, Dale Murphy, or Don Mattingly, who from a statistically objective standpoint are harder to justify electing. Another failure to elect O’Neil might have consigned the Hall to irrelevance in the eyes of a great many who might otherwise be on board. His recognition provides some overdue acknowledgement of the whole enterprise of pre-integration Black baseball, and some closure on the pain and drama of his 2006 snub. I’m hopeful that it kindles further interest in setting the record straight and acknowledging more of his peers, ideally without waiting another 10 years (more on that subject soon).
Regardless of what happens with the BBWAA voting during this upcoming cycle, the elections of O’Neil, Hodges, Kaat, Miñoso, Oliva, and Fowler ought to guarantee a substantial crowd in Cooperstown next summer. Fans, friends, and family members have waited a long, long time to see these men recognized, and while the absences of the deceased will loom large, their elections ensure that the stories of the roads they traveled will long outlive them.
Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.
I noted a couple of weeks ago that I felt the top five current Hall omissions were Minoso, O’Neil, Hodges, Allen, and Keith Hernandez. I hate it that Dick Allen was snubbed – but it’s amazing that four (including Kaat) got in, and I’m kinda glad the votes were concentrated so that we didn’t have a bunch of 10’s and 11’s. I hate to think of it this way, but if Oliva and Kaat are going to get in, at least they get to be alive to see it.
Hopefully, Allen will get inducted on the next round and Keith Hernandez can move to the top of the Snub List. I need to really think about my new top 5. Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker join Hernandez and Allen… but the fifth spot I really need to think about. Maybe Dewey Evans? (That’s a 70+-WAR player if his defensive metrics don’t destroy his WAR over the second half of his career.) Maybe Kenny Lofton – the best player of the last generation to go one-and-done?
A special long-posthumous congrats to Gil Hodges, a special man and a legend for two different generations of New York baseball fans.
Honorable mention to Jim Edmonds, whose one and done was every bit as criminal as Lofton’s.
Great call. Edmonds is in the top-6 and now I just have to order it. There’s a lot of ’90’s-00’s stars who didn’t sustain their HOF path and fell short. Edmonds got better as he aged with 6-sttraight 6-win seasons in his 30’s. Looking at WAR, Edmonds feels undervalued defensively compared to his perceived value, and the defensive numbers are so incredibly variable year-to-year.
Meanwhile you have Omar Visquel on path to election, and he typically needed 3 seasons to get 6 WAR
His peak was downright dominant. From 2000-2005 he slashed .292/.406/.584 with a 154 OPS+ and plus defense in center. Not to mention, he was pretty much a 5 WAR player in Anaheim prior to his peak.
He’s never really mentioned as a HOF snub, but he’s more than qualified IMHO.
That’s interesting. Since WWII, from ages 30-35 Edmonds’ 40.1 fWAR ranks 7th behind only Mays, Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Mike Schmidt, Jackie Robinson, & Stan Musial.
I’ve never been that high on Keith Hernandez, but I agree about Grich and Whitaker. Plus there’s always Thurman Munson and Bill Dahlen who seem to have solid fan clubs behind them.
The Hall has a lot of third basemen I think they should at least reconsider alongside Dick Allen: Buddy Bell, Sal Bando, Graig Nettles, and Ken Boyer are right on the edge. Seems like third basemen get overlooked often. Others below mentioned Kenny Lofton and Jim Edmonds; I hope at least Lofton gets the call soon. He was super fun to watch.
I don’t know how many people agree with me on my last two wishes since I never hear much about these guys, but Jack Glasscock was excellent and Wes Ferrell was probably the best-hitting full-time pitcher ever. Both of their eras are over-represented, but I’d still like to see them in there.
I also think we should consider more players for their outside achievements, like giving the museum a Curt Flood and/or Tommy John exhibit, even if they aren’t actually inducted as players. And as for players like Tommy John and Jim Kaat, I do believe career length should be taken into consideration–seriously, two full generations of people grew up watching Kaat! There are only 16 players who were on the mound for more innings than him in the last 120 years! That has to be worth something. That’s the logic I use to justify Harold Baines’ election (which admittedly is still a stretch…at some point career length is the only thing going for you and I don’t love that) and also why I’m okay with Omar Vizquel getting in.
Graig Nettles!
Nettles “down-voted” as a favor to George Brett.
Fair enough…but he’s definitely a Hall of Famer.
At noon tomorrow, the prosecution will allege that members of the committee voted in Tony Oliva but not Dick Allen. Each of the defendants will be permitted counsel, but the perpetrators will be found and sentenced for their misdeeds.
I’m glad I don’t have to ever interact with any of the people on these committees in real life. The only reason they didn’t Harold Bainesify it further is because they couldn’t find another one to stick in there.
The various iterations of the Veteran’s Committees have always been a double-edged sword. They correct some injustices while committing others.
Anyway, this election felt a bit like the Oprah Winfrey show: “You get in the Hall of Fame, and you get in the Hall of Fame, and you get in the Hall of Fame….everyone gets in the Hall of Fame!”.
Except, apparently, Dick Allen. For Dick Allen, it’s like the Candygrams scene from Mean Girls, where everyone gets it except for him.
If you wanted the vets committees to vote like the writers, there would be no point. The players/managers/execs know and saw things differently from writers so I think it’s a good counterbalance. It’s not the Hall of WAR so I’m fine with a different cut
I don’t think anyone’s asking them to vote the same as the writers. The problem is that the number of voters is way too small for any reliable or valid decision. And, at least in some cases, you have members who are voting for their colleagues or friends. The writers certainly aren’t objective but the members of the Eras Committees are often quite biased.
Awesome writeup! I personally see Allen as a much more deserving player than Hodges, though I guess the managing career has to be taken into account.
I guess the question is, is “good player + good manager” > “very good player”?
My assumption is that Hodges was voted in as a player. So in theory they can’t/shouldn’t take into account his managing career. Though in reality I imagine that many of the voters did.
Given the sheer number of times Hodges has been voted on in these committees, he seems to obviously be the guy most people wanted to find a way to get into the hall of fame despite somewhat clearly falling into the hall of very good camp but with intangibles out the wazoo. He’s been constantly in the mix and if you roll the “serious vet committee consideration” dice 15 times, at least one is going to come up in your favor. It’s clear that many better players got less consideration. I think this just shows Hodges is below the HoF line for most people which makes him a tricky comp.
Good to see Minoso & O’Neil finally make it. Fowler, too.
Ambivalent on Kaat, Oliva & Hodges. Just don’t think any of them is really Hall worthy. I guess the good news is we don’t have to hear about Hodges candidacy anymore. Nice man, but, if he’s in, where is Norm Cash? Boog Powell? Lee May? Willie Horton? Steve Garvey? Andres Galarraga? McGriff? Delgado? Just too many similar or better players to him that don’t get a sniff because they didn’t play in Brooklyn.
Same with Kaat. Now that he’s in how can you keep out Tommy John?
Lastly, while Dahlen is certainly worthy, I have a hard time getting worked up about players from 120 years ago. No one remembers him as a player & while I guess it would be nice for his great-great grandkids to be happy he got in, basically we’re honoring lines of stats if he does make it.
I’m going to agree with the sentiment here that the Hall, and specifically the Era committees, are redefining what it means to be a HoFer. The case for a “small Hall” is gone with the recent inclusions of Kaat, Hodges, Baines and Morris. With this election I think it is hard to point to these as outliers and we should be starting to think of this as the bar to clear for likely inclusion. There are a lot of players that deserve a second look if Baines and Hodges are what is now believed to be a Hall worthy first baseman.
I’ve more or less resigned myself to the idea that the veterans committee is going to put a lot of guys in there who are short. But putting in Hodges but not Dick Allen is really messed up. Dick Allen had five seasons that are better than Hodges’s best season.
I hope this means Fred McGriff is a lock once his time comes to be voted in via committee
McGriff is an absolute lock to make it, almost surely next year when the VC considers him for the first time.
“With this election I think it is hard to point to these as outliers and we should be starting to think of this as the bar to clear for likely inclusion.”
The issue is that the two voting bodies now have radically different standards; the one body will continue to snub worthy candidates, while the other one will enshrine ones which are clearly inferior. What’s a HoFer? Hell if I know now.
The case for a so-called small hall was gone decades ago when the veterans’ committees of the 60’s elected a lot of their buddies.
The real issue is that the VC’s don’t even know themselves what a HoFer is, over the long term. The standards there, as such, have fluctuated so much over the decades (being fairly tight for the 1st 30 years of the HoF’s existence, then very loose for about 15, then tight again, now loose again).
Kaat is basically the pitching version of Harold Baines now. I don’t think the “Kaat is a HOF, so this above-average pitcher is also a HOF”, works. There are probably dozens of guys not in that are more qualified, but that doesn’t mean they should be in the HOF
I disagree. Kaat was a very good player for like 12+ years in a row, and his career WAR is almost twice that of Baines
Jamie Moyer makes a lot more sense as a Baines comp.
I will say on Oliva- He’s short, but, he certainly had a HOF peak. IIRC, there’s a chance he lost 2-3 years on the front end due to coming over from Cuba/limits on dark skinned players, etc. His rookie year was when he was 25.
A player of his caliber would normally be up when he’s 21-23. If you give him some credit for that, maybe that puts him over the top? 300-400 hits, 40-50 HR, 200 RBI, 6-10 WAR, etc.
Of the Kaat/Hodges/Oliva group, Oliva is the one I’m least perturbed about.
Age 22 – 1.086 OPS in D- ball
Age 23 – .961 in A ball
Age 24 – .866 in AAA
Age 25 – 150 OPS + in majors
I wouldn’t give him much credit for the actual performance in the minors but it’s entirely possible that he could have held his own in the AL part of that time
Agreed. His rate stats are impressive from 1964-71. Plenty of black ink, too.
Tommy John, in addition to his actual on-field accomplishments, also has the benefit of being literally the first person to successfully recover from one of the most important medical procedures in baseball history.
So why should he personally get credit towards the Hall of Fame for just happening to blow out his elbow at the perfect time to be the one to pioneer the surgery? It could’ve been any Major League pitcher at the time.
Uhhh… because he was willing to be a human guinea pig for a new surgery that wound up prolonging a whole lot of careers?
It’s also not like recovery from Tommy John surgery is something that passively happens. He lost all feeling in his fingers for a while. He had to adopt a different grip. And there wasn’t an established playbook at the time for recovery.
So? Any other pitcher not already near retirement age would’ve done the same over the alternative of guaranteed immediate retirement and dealing with a bum elbow in his dominant arm for the rest of his life. If the surgery had failed, he would’ve been no worse off than he already was.
Sorry, but if Hodges had been voted in by the writers or he Veterans Committee 30 years ago, it would be written how he should not be in as his numbers don’t measure up. I get that he was a good guy and managed the Miracle Mets.
He was a very good player but the stars on the Bums were Jackie, the Duke,Pee Wee, Campy and Don Newcombe. He was the sixth or seventh best player. He was the 50’s version of Tony Perez or McGriff. A guy who could play some ball and help a winning team get where they needed to go, but was mostly not going to be MVP.
I think it was Verducci on Friday who was comparing him to Richie Ashburn. Hodges had a slightly higher OPS+, but otherwise Ashburn was just better. Ashburn led his leagues in a category other than ABs/PAs or games played 14 times including runs scored, batting average and OBP. Hodges led the league twice in SFs.
Hodges was a steadier player than Dick Allen, but Allen had multiple superstar years, so trounces Hodges in Peak value.
As a manger he was not Billy Martin or Gen Mauch. He didn’t drive the Seantors to some over achieving win totals and the Mets only won 83 games each of the next two seasons after winning 100 in 69. I know a manger is mostly only as good as his talent, but it doesn’t appeared he inspired his teams much other than 69.
Baseball is about more than numbers and stats. We rightfully put a lot of value in the numbers. I grew up having memorized all the records and I studied the backs of baseball cards.
But baseball is also about stories. There is a romance to baseball and its history. (I fear that the current version is losing that special feeling but I fully allow the possibility that I’m simply suffering from grumpy old man syndrome.) Being born in 1955 I didn’t see the Dodgers who were always falling to my beloved Yankees and vowing “wait till next year” but the Boys of Summer were legendary. Hodges was a huge part of that team, a huge part of its heart. Along with Jackie Robinson, Pee Wee Reese, Carl Erskine, Roy Campanella, Carl Furillo and the rest they are an indellible and wonderful part of baseball history. It’s no crime that Hodges is enshrined in the Hall of Fame.
One bit of context that should put a little more shine into Hodges’ playing career (as well as Minoso’s): their careers basically coincided with the period where the major leagues were open to Blacks but had not yet expanded beyond just 16 teams. The overall quality of competition during that stretch was certainly tougher than the decades immediately before or after.
Miñoso and O’Neil are highly deserving. I don’t object to Hodges, Kaat and Fowler as contributors in a variety of ways. I don’t agree with Oliva unless you also want Dale Murphy and others of that level. Giancarlo Stanton and Evan Longoria have already accomplished more than Oliva. Dahlen and Johnson are glaring omissions.
Here’s what everyone here needs to realize and accept. When these committees get together they’re made up mostly of former players who don’t care about WAR and care even less about JAWS. A player like Kaat who new stats doesn’t like is right in their wheel house because the players voting come from a time when starters pitched to win not manage the game for 6 innings. Kaat had 283 wins which to them is a lot ( because it’s a lot ), he’s only 1 win behind one of the panel members. You also have 2 guys on the panel with 23 gold gloves between them so when you bring up his 16 gold gloves ( whether you feel he deserved them all or not is irrelevant because they’re not going to dissect them ) that looks even more impressive. Kaat finally getting elected was kind of a no surprise. Guys who actually played will look at counting stats more than WAR.
I think there’s some definite truth in that. Though I would go a bit further. A lot of the old-timers are anti-WAR and anti-advanced stats. And it wouldn’t surprise me if some of the votes are a bit of pushback against WAR and the advanced stats.
The majority of the 16 on the committee weren’t ex-players. The six players were Rod Carew, Fergie Jenkins, Mike Schmidt, John Schuerholz, Ozzie Smith and Joe Torre. Mike Schmidt has lauded Allen’s modern stats.
Pretty sure John Schuerholz isn’t an ex-player. Maybe you meant Joe Torre?
Anyway, I don’t see anyone claiming that the majority of the committee was made up of ex-players. (nor am I sure how that’s relevant) And my comment referred to “old-timers” which could easily include non-players such as Tony La Russa and Jerry Reinsdorf, who were both seen as instrumental in the Baines election.
My cooment was not in response to yours. You’re right, only five of the 16 were former players. Epitaz stated, “they’re made up mostly of former players.” That sounds like a majority. Neither La Russa nor Reinsdorf was on this year’s committee, which was the topic of relevance.
I should have worded it the committees are made up mostly of people actually in the game, players, managers, executives.
Technically, WAR is also a counting stat, but I get what you mean.
“Guys who actually played will look at counting stats more than WAR.”
The evidence for that is?
Jim Kaat with 283 wins and Harold Baines. For all the belly aching about Baines he had over 2800 hits, over 1600 rbi’s, just under 1300 runs scored and close to 400 homers. Voters looked past the 38.7 WAR and were impressed enough with his traditional numbers to elect him. Oliva has a career .304 batting average and won 3 batting titles. Those mean nothing to the sabermetrics community but speak volumes in the old school community.
Very happy that Hodges finally got in as well as everyone else that got in but not sure how Kaat, who was around forever but was never was a top pitcher got in— I think he got votes for cy young once in his 20+ year career. I mean if Kaat got in does that mean Jamie Moyer one day will get in? Jerry Koosman was a better pitcher than Kaat and is far more deserving of enshrinement. I hate to say it but it feels like politics played a part in Kaat getting in as he probably had buddies on the voting committee to push him through. I hope Hodges getting in helps Keith Hernandez get in via the veterans committee as Keith was better than Hodges but since the committee is old school guys they’ll look at his lack of homers and rbi and bypass him. I can’t tell you what a joke it is that Allen didn’t get in he was an elite hitter and player in his prime and should have gotten in decades ago.
Jim Kaat had 144 “quality starts” (at least six innings, no more than three earned) that he did not win… during those 144 games he was 0-81 with a 2.50 ERA. Moreover, he went at least seven innings in 91 of those, during that 91 he was 0-55 with a sparkling 2.12 ERA.
You could make similar claims about a lot of very good pitchers not in the Hall. That’s just due to the many flaws involved in the Win statistic, as well as how most 7+ inning starts in the last 50 years generally result in low ERAs just because the pitcher didn’t get pulled before then.
Furthermore, Quality Starts may be a better stat than Wins, but it has its own major flaws, most notably how a 4.50 ERA (for 3 ERs over 6 IP) is not considered “quality” pitching by most fans. (I personally think it should revised as 2 ERs or less over 6+ IP OR 3 ERs over 7+ IP.)
Jim Kaat? Seriously?
I’m not a small-hall kind of guy, but it does seem more and more like these players are just getting in because their names have been hanging around the discussion for years.
I don’t begrudge any of the guys voted in, whether I would vote for them or not, but Dick Allen was a better baseball player than all of them.
Just conjecture, but I feel like the Golden Eras Ballot committee made it a priority to vote for Jim Kaat and Tony Oliva because they’re living and for Gil Hodges because he has a living widow at 95. That meant either Minnie Minoso or Dick Allen had to be sacrificed and Minoso has been waiting longer so it was Allen. Doesn’t excuse not getting Allen in, but he did miss it by only one vote (AGAIN). The real tragedy was Allen missing by one vote in 2014 when he was still alive.
I don’t see Allen as better than Miñoso
Some of the outfield dimensions of Ebbets Field were reduced after 1947. In support of its bandbox epithet, from 1948-’57 Brooklyn hit more HR by far than any other of the 16 teams. Moreover, despite being an excellent team with a .607 W% (935-606) and the fourth-best starting pitchers, Dodger pitchers had the worst HR/9 rate of any team of that era.
Listed below are Gil Hodges’ Home and Away HR/AB stats from 1948-1957, when the Dodgers were playing in Brooklyn. To some extent, his numbers may reflect a typical home field advantage for hitters. But it seems likely that his power profited from playing at Ebbets.
————————————–
Stat ……. Home …….. Away
AVG …… 267/17 ….. 282/12
AB/HR …… 16 ………… 23
The election of Kaat and Oliva shows that the veterans’ committee was sensitive to the complaint of electing people while they were still alive. Though they were deserving, there were also deserving players on the ballot who were dead. Perhaps the thought was that there was no rush to honor them for that reason. I doubt that Bill Dahlen has anyone left alive who was related to him or interacted with him to represent at any ceremony.
Excellent points. If the BBWAA doesn’t elect anybody, which is certainly possible based on Ryan Thibodaux’s early returns and knowing what happened last year, do you think there would be high interest in attending an induction with only dead guys? What if we had Dick Allen and Ken Boyer instead of Jim Kaat and Tony Oliva? Would that make everyone happy? They’re more deserving.
Great article!
Players well below the HoF standard have always found their way into the HoF, but I’m wondering how perceptions among baseball cognoscenti have changed over time of just how significant/harmful to the overall standard these subpar inductions have been. It seems to me like there have been a lot lately – Baines, Morris, Hodges, Kaat, Oliva (though, yes, arguments have been made here that Kaat and Oliva aren’t *well* below the standard), potentially opening the door to even more. And more to the point, it seems to a lot of folks here that there have been a lot of sub-subpar inductions lately. Still, truly subpar inductions have happened since day 1, I’m guessing at a constant rate. (Just a guess, I confess.) Maybe it just seems like a lot now in absolute terms because the otherwise no-doubters, from McGwire onward, aren’t getting in and balancing them out?
Kaat, Olivia, and Hodges were fine players but their election lowers the standards of the HOF. Although Minoso and O’Neill were worthy entries (and I really know nothing about Fowler), elections like these make me want to severely curtail the power of these Committees, who seem to get as many wrong as right choices (or not have a great respect for precedent and standards). Maybe we need fewer former players on these committees or something?
A larger committee would certainly help quite a bit. As I mentioned above, a 16 person committee can never produce a reliable or valid decision (talk about your SSS issues!). The BBWAA has its faults but tends to come to better decisions simply by the sheer number of voters.
A larger committee might also not vote anyone in like the writers did last year.
…which I think would be totally fine. I would rather their standards be a tad high than a tad low.
I don’t see Kaat as worse than Don Sutton, Early Wynn, Ted Lyons, Bob Lemon, or Catfish Hunter just among starting pitchers elected by BBWAA, and easily more deserving than Trevor Hoffman, Bruce Sutter, or Rich Gossage among relievers. He’s a below average pitcher for a HOF to be sure but far from the worst choice, even excluding those elected by the VC.
Trevor Hoffman’s career WPA is #14 among pitchers in the last forty years, nestled just below Verlander and Scherzer and just above Kevin Brown and Glavine. Hoffman is #2 in baseball history on the list of career saves, and had almost as many as Sutter and Gossage combined. He’s not a good choice for a poster boy for undeserving HoFers.
Hi Jay. Absolutely love and look forward all year to your HOF discussions. As a lifelong Phillies fan I was actually kinda devastated that Allen didn’t make it. But as the regular ballot talk heats up I want to thank you for making me re-evaluate Bobby Abreu’s resume. I am 45 years old. My favorite Phillies as a child were, obviously, Schmidt and Lefty (and less obviously Von Hayes-lol). My favorite players entering the 2000’s were Barry Bonds and Bobby Abreu. Bonds is an obvious HOF’er but I never figured Abreu was. Since his various cumulative stats are what they are, however, meaning JAWS, bwar, etc it made me wonder….shouldn’t a player like Abreu be given, in essence, extra credit for accumulating those stats PED free, as far as I know, relative to the PEDers? In other words, I assume WAR, JAWS, etc is based on a level playing field even though in reality the field was on tilt for those not using.
I grew up going to Ebbets field for games and watching as many as one could on TV for the 1948-1957 era. Gil Hodges was most assuredly a Hall of Famer. Not sure why metrics do not seem to pick this up, but he revolutionized defense at 1B and there is ample peer group evidence that he was deemed the best defensive 1B in baseball for all of the 1950’s decade.
Sadly, most of the people who comment on him never saw him play. Some saw Keith Hernandez and the “wheel” play BUT Gil was there a long time before. He had some of the softest hands I have ever seen at 1B. He won the very first Gold Glove ever awarded in 1957 and when it was awarded in 1957 the award covered BOTH leagues, so acclaimed as the best defensive 1B in Major League baseball. He followed that up with Gold Gloves for the NL in 1958 and 1959. If there had been Gold Gloves from 1950-1956 he most certainly would have won those also.
As for his offense.. for the decade of the 1950’s (1950-1959, 10 years) Gil Hodges had 310 Home Runs, 1001 RBI, 7 years with MVP votes, 7 years as an AllStar. Only one player in ALL of baseball had more HR during that period. Gil only had one year where his OPS was below .860 and where his OPS+ was below 120 (with many years around 140). Yes, Ebbets Field was a bit of a bandbox, but note that Gil hit only 172 of his 370 career HR there (and one can pick any set of years to do a home/away comparison). So, aside from his “special” defense, his offense for a decade was HOF worthy and he certainly was the #1 1B in all of Major League Baseball for a full decade (noting that Musial was still only a 50% 1B through the 50’s).
The only quibble I have is that Luke Easter was probably the best 1B in the 1950’s, and would have been recognized as such, had he been white or had MLB not cared that he was black. I can support Hodges candidacy as a guy with a lifetime of excellent if not exceptional service, much like Kaat, but I could more easily support Easter’s candidacy purely as a player.
Ivan, I also saw Luke Easter play. You are correct, in that he was excellent; however he only played for 3 1/2 seasons (since he first came to the major leagues when he was in his mid 30’s). Those were his “twilight” years, but one could imagine him in his prime.
Yes his HOF case would take translations from the Negro Leagues, White Minor Leagues and some consideration for the lack of opportunity from slipping through the cracks. He might or might not be an all-time great but in my opinion based on looking at those things he’s a lot more deserving than Hodges purely as a player.
Spot on, as usual: the HOF needed Buck O’Neil much, much more than Buck needed Cooperstown.
But even if it should have happened while he was alive, I am happy for Buck & for all those whose lives he touched & that this will be a mechanism to put a “little bit of Buck” into the hearts & minds of more baseball fans.
Almost all of us would be better off with a little bit of John Jordan O’Neil in lives or, at least, that is true for me.