2022 ZiPS Projections: Cleveland Guardians

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cleveland Guardians.

Batters

The overlying theme here is a state of averageness, and that’s not so bad. For a number of years, Cleveland’s outfield situation has been rather bleak, generally toward the bottom of the league, with little investment to make it better. This is the first time in a while that ZiPS sees some hope there. No, the Guardians didn’t pull a 180 and sign Starling Marte and Michael Conforto, but the likely players manning the outfield have better projections than most of those used out there in recent years. The most notable are Myles Straw and Steven Kwan, both of whom get projections that, in an entire season, put them a skosh above average. ZiPS doesn’t think they likely get any surprise star performances, but it’s a better situation.

The two likely meaningful breakouts in the roster are Nolan Jones and George Valera. ZiPS is happy with the latter’s entrance into the high minors, but there is concern about the former; that ceiling gets a lot lower if he doesn’t improve on 2021 and an unexciting .787 OPS for Triple-A Columbus. One can’t blame the ankle injury that ended Jones’ season, either, which was significant enough that he couldn’t play through it.

The middle infield is a similar story as the outfield. ZiPS sees more upside remaining for Andrés Giménez, and Amed Rosario is far from a problem. First base is a weak spot, with the computer holding out little hope for Bobby Bradley. It was a lot easier to excuse his underwhelming numbers when he was 22, but he’ll be 26 next season, and he didn’t even hit Triple-A pitchers all that convincingly last year. Speaking of players with offense that displeased ZiPS, let’s just say “Austin Hedges” and leave it there.

I was quite surprised to see a very aggressive projection for Richie Palacios, but Steamer appears to be on board here as well. Add in Gabriel Arias, and Cleveland actually may have some middle infield surplus they can trade to upgrade elsewhere.

José Ramírez is, of course, José Ramírez. After two calendar years of MVP-type numbers, I think we can safely stop worrying about that ugly first half of 2019. He is the best thing about the Guardians’ offense, and even if he’s at the age where there’s probably not another gear remaining, that would be kind of greedy.

Pitchers

Shane Bieber didn’t win a second AL Cy Young award, but he was in the hunt until shoulder pain cost him half a season. Luckily, there was no serious damage at the time, but with Cleveland falling out of playoff contention when the White Sox pulled away for good, there thankfully wasn’t any need to push his return too quickly; he came back in September, but the team was rightfully very conservative about his use. He’s the José Ramírez of the pitching staff, the shining light in the field of averageness.

ZiPS and Steamer differ on Cal Quantrill, with ZiPS the more optimistic this time, pegging Q as a solid No. 2 starter behind Bieber. The rest of the rotation is generally unimpressive but respectable, with a lot of options in case of emergency. After Zach Plesac, Triston McKenzie, and Aaron Civale, ZiPS sees five or six options that wouldn’t entirely fall on their face. It’s most intrigued by Peyton Battenfield, a 2019 draftee out of Oklahoma State who didn’t get significant professional time until this year thanks to the “not-so-fun size” 2020 season. He shot up very quickly through the minors, and if he had more professional time to look at, ZiPS would be even more optimistic than it is.

Like the rest of the team, the bullpen is middle-of-the-pack, with two big highlights at the top. ZiPS is all-in on Emmanuel Clase, and he is likely to have one of the (if not the) best ERA+ projections for any pitcher this year; last year’s was Aroldis Chapman at 170. ZiPS isn’t quite as ecstatic about James Karinchak, but that’s near the practical ceiling of what you can expect from a pitcher who walks five or six batters per nine innings. If he cuts off a walk or two, his upside is frightening.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
José Ramírez B 29 3B 594 513 96 141 34 4 32 102 70 83 25 5
Andrés Giménez L 23 SS 479 437 58 110 22 3 15 47 22 115 20 5
Myles Straw R 27 CF 603 539 79 146 24 3 4 39 58 117 31 6
Franmil Reyes R 26 RF 524 470 66 122 20 1 34 94 47 164 3 1
Gabriel Arias R 22 SS 542 500 65 131 27 3 14 53 31 134 5 1
Amed Rosario R 26 SS 630 591 80 163 28 7 14 65 32 125 17 4
Steven Kwan L 24 CF 465 425 58 122 19 5 10 43 34 52 7 4
Richie Palacios L 25 2B 441 390 60 105 25 3 8 40 41 79 14 2
George Valera L 21 RF 410 351 62 84 6 2 21 57 47 117 7 4
Nolan Jones L 24 3B 473 411 57 95 20 1 14 46 54 158 8 2
Brayan Rocchio B 21 SS 517 480 67 123 22 3 13 57 25 118 15 7
Bradley Zimmer L 29 CF 383 330 50 73 11 1 9 37 33 135 16 4
Tyler Freeman R 23 SS 372 346 42 95 19 3 3 27 12 44 8 4
Oscar Mercado R 27 LF 511 460 65 112 25 3 12 49 38 98 18 4
Owen Miller R 25 2B 482 447 49 111 21 2 10 44 28 112 3 2
Jose Tena L 21 SS 471 447 59 104 21 1 14 50 19 126 8 4
Bobby Bradley L 26 1B 443 397 52 85 17 1 24 63 36 161 0 0
Wilson Ramos R 34 C 361 335 34 90 14 0 12 49 22 63 0 0
Alex Call R 27 CF 424 380 47 86 17 2 11 40 34 92 7 4
Ryan Lavarnway R 34 C 216 196 24 46 9 0 8 26 16 60 0 0
Yu Chang R 26 1B 336 310 41 74 17 2 12 45 20 95 2 2
Josh Naylor L 25 RF 426 391 50 101 21 1 14 48 32 75 2 1
Jhonkensy Noel R 20 3B 345 324 53 78 14 1 14 62 14 82 5 2
Jose Fermin R 23 3B 405 371 55 95 14 2 8 37 21 52 6 5
Bryan Lavastida R 23 C 359 322 57 80 17 1 8 40 28 75 11 5
Austin Hedges R 29 C 324 294 31 57 10 0 12 39 19 93 1 0
Oscar Gonzalez R 24 RF 516 496 55 131 21 1 22 66 16 119 2 2
Ernie Clement R 26 2B 375 345 38 83 17 2 3 23 19 50 7 5
Daniel Schneemann L 25 SS 228 211 25 48 7 1 4 18 14 59 6 2
Will Brennan L 24 CF 446 406 60 106 22 2 5 36 29 75 10 5
Trenton Brooks L 26 1B 438 394 50 92 24 1 11 44 35 90 2 1
Bo Naylor L 22 C 395 362 44 70 12 2 12 42 28 128 8 1
Beau Taylor L 32 C 260 227 29 46 10 1 4 19 27 73 0 0
Mike Rivera R 26 C 192 174 19 32 7 0 3 14 13 51 0 0
Gavin Collins R 26 C 286 260 29 54 10 1 7 26 18 63 1 2
Sandy León B 33 C 214 195 17 35 5 0 5 16 14 61 0 0
Jonathan Lopez L 22 C 87 79 6 14 3 0 0 3 5 28 1 0
Connor Marabell L 28 LF 438 413 51 106 23 2 8 43 18 76 4 2
Aaron Bracho B 21 2B 326 292 38 53 10 0 10 32 26 103 1 1
Michael Amditis R 24 C 141 129 15 24 7 0 3 12 11 36 1 0
Jonathan Engelmann R 25 1B 293 265 31 52 10 1 7 24 21 89 4 2
Micah Pries L 24 LF 317 294 37 66 11 1 10 32 15 93 8 1
Victor Nova L 22 3B 407 370 52 78 11 2 5 28 32 109 8 4
Julian Escobedo L 24 CF 285 267 30 54 11 1 5 23 16 84 6 4
Marcos Gonzalez R 22 1B 267 248 22 51 10 0 8 20 15 92 0 2
Will Benson L 24 RF 481 419 51 75 16 3 18 51 53 182 13 4
Tyler Krieger B 28 2B 246 229 22 45 8 1 3 15 13 72 5 3

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
José Ramírez .275 .365 .544 141 .269 .274 7.7 3 5.4 Ian Kinsler
Andrés Giménez .252 .306 .419 93 .167 .309 4.9 7 2.5 John Wehner
Myles Straw .271 .342 .349 88 .078 .340 4.8 7 2.5 Jerry Mumphrey
Franmil Reyes .260 .326 .523 124 .264 .324 6.3 -4 2.3 Craig Wilson
Gabriel Arias .262 .310 .412 93 .150 .332 4.7 1 2.0 Tony Batista
Amed Rosario .276 .315 .418 96 .142 .330 5.1 -5 2.0 Julio Franco 프랑코
Steven Kwan .287 .343 .426 106 .139 .309 5.5 -2 1.9 Jeremy Reed
Richie Palacios .269 .346 .410 104 .141 .320 5.5 -4 1.8 Ken Boswell
George Valera .239 .334 .447 109 .208 .296 5.3 4 1.7 Matt Winters
Nolan Jones .231 .326 .387 92 .156 .339 4.5 3 1.7 Ian Stewart
Brayan Rocchio .256 .306 .396 88 .140 .315 4.4 0 1.4 Ronny Cedeno
Bradley Zimmer .221 .321 .342 80 .121 .344 4.1 4 1.2 Damon Mashore
Tyler Freeman .275 .316 .373 86 .098 .308 4.4 1 1.0 Matt Macri
Oscar Mercado .243 .308 .389 87 .146 .286 4.5 5 1.0 Rontrez Johnson
Owen Miller .248 .297 .371 79 .123 .311 3.9 4 0.9 Juan Melo
Jose Tena .233 .268 .378 72 .145 .293 3.6 6 0.8 Dean DeCillis
Bobby Bradley .214 .287 .443 93 .229 .288 4.4 4 0.8 Steve Carver
Wilson Ramos .269 .316 .418 96 .149 .300 4.9 -7 0.7 Jamie Burke
Alex Call .226 .295 .368 78 .142 .271 3.8 4 0.7 Jeff Barry
Ryan Lavarnway .235 .298 .403 87 .168 .297 4.2 0 0.7 Robert Machado
Yu Chang .239 .292 .423 90 .184 .305 4.3 4 0.5 Greg Litton
Josh Naylor .258 .317 .425 98 .166 .288 4.9 -3 0.5 Brian Traxler
Jhonkensy Noel .241 .279 .420 85 .179 .281 4.2 1 0.5 Chad Spann
Jose Fermin .256 .308 .369 82 .113 .280 4.0 0 0.5 Jesus Merchan
Bryan Lavastida .248 .312 .382 86 .134 .301 4.3 -6 0.4 John Jaso
Austin Hedges .194 .248 .350 59 .156 .238 2.9 7 0.4 Mike Ryan
Oscar Gonzalez .264 .291 .444 94 .179 .307 4.7 -3 0.4 Jose Guillen
Ernie Clement .241 .284 .328 65 .087 .274 3.2 5 0.1 Luis Ordaz
Daniel Schneemann .227 .281 .327 64 .100 .297 3.3 0 0.0 David Howard
Will Brennan .261 .318 .362 84 .101 .310 4.2 -8 -0.1 Jeff Abbott
Trenton Brooks .234 .299 .383 83 .150 .276 4.0 0 -0.1 Gary Burnham
Bo Naylor .193 .254 .337 58 .144 .261 3.0 0 -0.2 Lee Evans
Beau Taylor .203 .293 .308 63 .106 .280 3.1 -3 -0.3 Jerry Goff
Mike Rivera .184 .247 .276 41 .092 .242 2.3 3 -0.3 Brian Moon
Gavin Collins .208 .270 .335 62 .127 .247 3.0 -2 -0.3 Brandon Marsters
Sandy León .179 .241 .282 41 .103 .233 2.2 2 -0.4 Charlie Greene
Jonathan Lopez .177 .244 .215 26 .038 .275 1.8 0 -0.4 Matt Pagnozzi
Connor Marabell .257 .291 .380 80 .123 .298 4.0 -4 -0.5 Quinn Mack
Aaron Bracho .182 .248 .318 52 .137 .240 2.6 3 -0.6 Scott Powers
Michael Amditis .186 .255 .310 52 .124 .233 2.7 -4 -0.6 Nicholas Derba
Jonathan Engelmann .196 .264 .321 57 .125 .266 2.8 4 -0.6 Edward Lowery
Micah Pries .224 .275 .371 72 .146 .293 3.8 -4 -0.6 Carmen Castillo
Victor Nova .211 .276 .292 54 .081 .285 2.8 1 -0.7 Demetrish Jenkins
Julian Escobedo .202 .253 .307 50 .105 .275 2.5 -1 -0.8 Erold Andrus
Marcos Gonzalez .206 .256 .343 60 .137 .291 2.8 1 -0.9 Manelik Pimentel
Will Benson .179 .273 .360 69 .181 .260 3.4 -4 -1.0 Duane Singleton
Tyler Krieger .197 .245 .279 42 .083 .273 2.3 -1 -1.0 Jason Camilli

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Shane Bieber R 27 10 5 3.11 23 23 139.0 117 48 17 33 180 2.98
Cal Quantrill R 27 11 9 4.27 28 28 154.0 155 73 22 46 131 4.41
Emmanuel Clase R 24 7 3 2.45 71 0 69.7 54 19 4 20 82 2.48
Zach Plesac R 27 9 9 4.55 27 27 146.3 146 74 24 39 118 4.62
Triston McKenzie R 24 8 7 4.53 29 27 129.0 109 65 23 54 151 4.51
Peyton Battenfield R 24 4 4 4.38 23 20 98.7 98 48 15 31 93 4.37
Cody Morris R 25 4 3 4.08 18 17 70.7 66 32 9 26 75 3.99
Tobias Myers R 23 7 7 4.63 25 21 107.0 109 55 17 35 97 4.58
James Karinchak R 26 7 4 3.13 61 0 54.7 36 19 6 28 87 3.07
Aaron Civale R 27 8 9 4.86 23 23 124.0 128 67 23 32 100 4.85
Konnor Pilkington L 24 7 7 4.73 24 23 97.0 98 51 14 44 91 4.73
Xzavion Curry R 23 5 5 4.71 20 20 91.7 95 48 15 27 78 4.62
Eli Morgan R 26 6 7 5.14 24 24 115.7 122 66 23 36 105 5.04
Enyel De Los Santos R 26 4 4 4.64 35 10 77.7 75 40 13 32 88 4.52
Logan Allen L 25 6 7 5.15 26 21 101.3 110 58 15 45 82 5.00
Joey Cantillo L 22 3 3 4.70 12 8 38.3 36 20 6 19 40 4.77
Oliver Pérez L 40 2 1 3.55 39 0 25.3 23 10 3 8 26 3.85
Shane McCarthy R 25 2 2 4.85 10 10 39.0 40 21 6 19 34 5.05
Adam Scott L 26 5 7 5.22 18 18 79.3 83 46 16 32 72 5.35
Alex Young L 28 6 6 5.01 42 10 91.7 96 51 18 35 84 5.18
Brett Daniels R 26 6 7 5.28 23 17 92.0 95 54 15 50 82 5.31
Nic Enright R 25 4 4 4.24 34 0 51.0 47 24 7 20 54 4.20
Nick Sandlin R 25 1 1 3.98 33 0 31.7 25 14 4 19 41 4.32
Blake Parker R 37 2 2 4.22 53 0 49.0 46 23 7 18 49 4.26
Trevor Stephan R 26 3 4 4.96 36 8 74.3 71 41 14 35 87 4.86
Juan Mota R 26 5 5 5.00 33 8 68.3 68 38 9 38 64 4.86
Kirk McCarty L 26 6 8 5.43 23 23 109.3 122 66 21 40 83 5.42
Nick Wittgren R 31 5 4 4.47 57 1 58.3 56 29 10 19 60 4.48
Aaron Pinto R 25 3 2 4.41 31 0 51.0 48 25 8 19 53 4.43
Alex Royalty R 25 3 5 5.48 16 16 67.3 74 41 10 35 49 5.39
Heath Fillmyer R 28 5 6 5.46 24 17 87.3 93 53 16 40 71 5.45
Nick Mikolajchak R 24 3 3 4.54 30 0 37.7 36 19 7 13 40 4.67
Sam Hentges L 25 3 4 5.42 30 16 88.0 96 53 15 46 80 5.25
Tanner Tully L 27 6 8 5.56 25 20 115.0 138 71 23 31 74 5.48
Robert Broom R 25 2 3 4.86 47 2 53.7 54 29 9 24 48 5.08
Juan Hillman L 25 6 8 5.60 22 21 106.0 124 66 19 39 67 5.52
Bryan Shaw R 34 5 5 4.70 71 0 67.0 65 35 9 33 62 4.69
Nathan Ocker R 25 3 3 4.98 34 1 68.7 73 38 11 25 54 4.96
Eli Lingos L 26 2 3 5.66 19 8 55.7 62 35 11 23 41 5.68
Jake Miednik L 26 1 1 5.01 31 0 41.3 42 23 7 19 39 5.02
Ben Krauth L 28 2 3 5.27 29 1 42.7 43 25 7 25 41 5.29
Andrew Misiaszek L 24 3 3 4.98 32 0 59.7 61 33 9 28 52 5.01
Thomas Ponticelli R 25 4 6 5.77 27 12 82.7 92 53 15 42 59 5.82
Anthony Gose L 31 2 4 5.91 32 1 32.0 28 21 5 28 39 5.59
Matt Koch R 31 4 5 5.79 30 10 82.3 96 53 19 27 59 5.95
Jordan Stephens R 29 4 5 5.85 32 9 75.3 85 49 17 30 62 5.82
Justin Garza R 28 3 5 5.99 31 8 67.7 71 45 13 41 62 5.80
Manuel Alvarez R 26 2 2 5.98 39 1 46.7 46 31 7 40 46 5.92

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Shane Bieber 11.7 2.1 1.1 5.9% 32.0% .304 141 71 3.6 Ben Sheets
Cal Quantrill 7.7 2.7 1.3 7.0% 19.8% .294 102 98 2.0 Bobby Jones
Emmanuel Clase 10.6 2.6 0.5 7.1% 29.3% .289 178 56 1.9 Huston Street
Zach Plesac 7.3 2.4 1.5 6.3% 19.1% .282 96 104 1.6 Oil Can Boyd
Triston McKenzie 10.5 3.8 1.6 9.9% 27.7% .274 96 104 1.4 Rob Bell
Peyton Battenfield 8.5 2.8 1.4 7.3% 22.0% .297 100 100 1.2 Slightly Better Jeff Robinson
Cody Morris 9.6 3.3 1.1 8.6% 24.8% .302 107 93 1.1 Jack Armstrong
Tobias Myers 8.2 2.9 1.4 7.6% 21.0% .299 94 106 1.1 Rich Bordi
James Karinchak 14.3 4.6 1.0 12.3% 38.3% .288 140 72 1.0 Armando Benitez
Aaron Civale 7.3 2.3 1.7 6.1% 19.0% .285 90 111 0.9 Bill Wegman
Konnor Pilkington 8.4 4.1 1.3 10.2% 21.1% .303 92 108 0.9 Danny Jackson
Xzavion Curry 7.7 2.7 1.5 6.9% 19.8% .296 93 108 0.8 Justin Germano 저마노
Eli Morgan 8.2 2.8 1.8 7.2% 20.9% .297 85 118 0.5 Mark Brownson
Enyel De Los Santos 10.2 3.7 1.5 9.4% 25.9% .307 94 106 0.5 Esteban Yan 얀
Logan Allen 7.3 4.0 1.3 9.8% 17.9% .307 85 118 0.4 Danny Borrell
Joey Cantillo 9.4 4.5 1.4 11.2% 23.7% .294 93 107 0.3 Ricky Horton
Oliver Pérez 9.2 2.8 1.1 7.5% 24.3% .294 123 81 0.3 Chris Hammond
Shane McCarthy 7.8 4.4 1.4 10.9% 19.4% .298 90 111 0.3 Dallas Braden
Adam Scott 8.2 3.6 1.8 9.1% 20.5% .295 84 119 0.3 Ryan Karp
Alex Young 8.2 3.4 1.8 8.7% 20.8% .297 87 115 0.2 Buddy Groom
Brett Daniels 8.0 4.9 1.5 11.9% 19.6% .300 83 121 0.2 Greg Aquino
Nic Enright 9.5 3.5 1.2 9.1% 24.5% .294 103 97 0.2 Chad Ricketts
Nick Sandlin 11.7 5.4 1.1 13.6% 29.3% .288 110 91 0.2 Jose Valverde
Blake Parker 9.0 3.3 1.3 8.6% 23.3% .291 103 97 0.2 Mike Timlin
Trevor Stephan 10.5 4.2 1.7 10.7% 26.5% .303 88 114 0.2 Kurt Knudsen
Juan Mota 8.4 5.0 1.2 12.3% 20.6% .303 87 115 0.2 Steve Curry
Kirk McCarty 6.8 3.3 1.7 8.2% 17.0% .299 80 124 0.2 John Rheinecker
Nick Wittgren 9.3 2.9 1.5 7.6% 24.1% .293 98 102 0.2 Mark Huismann
Aaron Pinto 9.4 3.4 1.4 8.6% 24.1% .292 99 101 0.1 Mark Brandenburg
Alex Royalty 6.5 4.7 1.3 11.3% 15.8% .302 80 125 0.1 Jake Joseph
Heath Fillmyer 7.3 4.1 1.6 10.2% 18.1% .294 80 125 0.1 Sean Lowe
Nick Mikolajchak 9.6 3.1 1.7 8.0% 24.7% .290 96 104 0.0 Terry Clark
Sam Hentges 8.2 4.7 1.5 11.4% 19.9% .313 81 124 0.0 Matt Perisho
Tanner Tully 5.8 2.4 1.8 6.1% 14.5% .305 79 127 0.0 Randy Marshall
Robert Broom 8.0 4.0 1.5 10.1% 20.2% .292 90 111 0.0 Kirk Bullinger
Juan Hillman 5.7 3.3 1.6 8.2% 14.0% .303 78 128 0.0 Chris Rojas
Bryan Shaw 8.3 4.4 1.2 11.1% 20.9% .295 93 108 0.0 Jim Czajkowski
Nathan Ocker 7.1 3.3 1.4 8.3% 17.8% .297 88 114 -0.2 Larry Hrynko
Eli Lingos 6.6 3.7 1.8 9.2% 16.3% .295 77 129 -0.2 Paul Kilgus
Jake Miednik 8.5 4.1 1.5 10.3% 21.2% .299 87 115 -0.2 Andy Paul
Ben Krauth 8.6 5.3 1.5 12.8% 21.0% .300 83 121 -0.2 Mike Kinnunen
Andrew Misiaszek 7.8 4.2 1.4 10.4% 19.4% .297 88 114 -0.2 Jeff Yoder
Thomas Ponticelli 6.4 4.6 1.6 11.0% 15.5% .296 76 132 -0.3 Enemencio Pacheco
Anthony Gose 11.0 7.9 1.4 18.4% 25.7% .295 74 135 -0.4 Brad Pennington
Matt Koch 6.4 3.0 2.1 7.3% 15.9% .297 75 133 -0.4 Danny Graves
Jordan Stephens 7.4 3.6 2.0 8.8% 18.3% .301 75 134 -0.5 Alan Fowlkes
Justin Garza 8.2 5.5 1.7 13.1% 19.8% .299 73 137 -0.5 Jonathan Johnson
Manuel Alvarez 8.9 7.7 1.4 17.7% 20.4% .300 73 137 -0.6 Jeff Smith

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Cave Dameron
5 months ago

Thank you Dan, very cool!

Cave Dameron
5 months ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

I’ll never reveal the secrets to my cool formula. One might say I’m a guardian of it.