2023 ZiPS Projections: Atlanta Braves

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Atlanta Braves.

Batters

If you’re wondering why Steve Cohen was willing to spend the GDP of a Pacific island nation on the 2023 Mets, you’re looking at the most compelling reason. The Phillies made the splash by bringing in Trea Turner, but that roster simply doesn’t cause terror in the eyes of their opponents. This one does.

What makes the Braves especially scary? A lot of times when you see a lineup this good, it’s a team full of guys nearing free agency, sure to depart due to the cost of keeping the band together. But these aren’t The Beatles of Abbey Road or Let It Be; Atlanta is still in the Revolver phase. Dansby Swanson was the one guy who departed, and though Vaughn Grissom is a projected downgrade, he still looks like a league-average player, which the Braves will be perfectly content with. In any case, Kyle Wright got Shelby Miller as his top comp, so maybe they can trade him for a new Swanson at some point!

Like the Mariners, the Braves do have that one unfortunate spot in left field. The combination of Eddie Rosario and assorted others feels out of place with the rest of the lineup, as if the Braves suddenly forgot the DH position existed and had to scramble internally once the local press noted that Joey Jo-Jo Junior Shabadoo didn’t sound like the name of a real player. As such, it would be nice if they added another outfielder, simply for depth, though it’s not strictly necessary unless an emergency situation happens, such as the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. or Michael Harris II to injury. Yes, the Braves are an elite team with a lineup hole, but with players in the top tier at catcher, first, third, center field, and right field, and certainly a chance of that at second, this is a filthy batting order regardless.

Pitchers

The rotation isn’t as exciting as the lineup, especially after Max Fried and Spencer Strider, but the Braves get some very solid projections here. There are questions about the three pitchers in the back end of the rotation: can Wright repeat? Does Charlie Morton have a bounceback left? Can Mike Soroka stay healthy?

ZiPS is cautiously optimistic about all three of them, but the projections do like quite a few of the pitchers the Braves have in reserve. It sees Ian Anderson and Bryce Elder as legitimate major league starters and has a lot of positive math-generated feelings about Jared Shuster and Kolby Allard. Huascar Ynoa would have been included in that final group of reinforcements if not for Tommy John surgery already all but ending his 2023.

Even with the loss of Tyler Matzek to Tommy John surgery, the bullpen remains incredibly deep. Here’s a game to play: go down our depth chart for the Braves and find the names that ZiPS sees with an ERA+ under 100.

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You don’t get a reliever ZiPS doesn’t like — or even one with a projected ERA+ under 110 — until you get down to the eighth man on the depth chart, Dennis Santana. Go farther down and there’s still Nick Anderson (projected ERA+ of 111), Jesse Chavez (102), Jackson Stephens (106), Seth Elledge (100), Victor Vodnik (104), and Michael Tonkin (107) to go. The Gwinnett Stripers might have the 20th-best bullpen in the majors in 2023.

It’s not just ZiPS liking Atlanta because Alex Anthopoulos secretly deposits gold into my accounts in the Caymans; Steamer also ranks the Braves as having the top bullpen in baseball. The WAR projection on the depth chart would have been even better but for the fact that ZiPS uses leverage index and automatically had to reduce the projected leverage index of some of the pitchers, as there just weren’t enough high-leverage appearances to go around for everyone.

The Braves ought to be one of the teams competing to lead the majors in wins in 2023. And ZiPS believes they have the highest floor of all the reasonable contenders — the Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, Blue Jays, and Astros. This is an excellent team.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Austin Riley R 26 3B 636 566 89 156 32 2 35 104 53 154 1 1
Ronald Acuña Jr. R 25 RF 577 496 98 136 25 1 29 79 68 135 28 9
Michael Harris II L 22 CF 618 572 90 157 36 4 22 93 35 143 24 4
Matt Olson L 29 1B 654 564 88 146 35 0 36 110 77 143 1 1
Sean Murphy R 28 C 479 420 60 105 26 1 20 73 45 112 1 1
Ozzie Albies B 26 2B 576 529 85 143 32 4 22 81 39 101 11 5
Travis d’Arnaud R 34 C 366 335 45 89 19 2 13 54 23 81 0 1
Vaughn Grissom R 22 SS 582 524 79 133 23 2 12 74 39 99 16 4
Marcell Ozuna R 32 LF 446 403 55 99 19 0 21 66 39 105 3 1
Orlando Arcia R 28 2B 390 354 44 85 16 0 12 50 32 75 3 2
Hoy Park L 27 3B 445 384 55 87 15 2 9 52 52 116 10 3
Mitchell Tolman L 29 2B 410 363 48 84 18 3 7 49 34 103 4 2
Jordan Luplow R 29 RF 298 258 40 54 14 1 15 47 36 76 4 2
Robbie Grossman B 33 LF 511 436 57 100 20 2 13 62 65 131 9 3
Kevin Pillar R 34 CF 369 341 52 87 17 2 13 51 18 68 5 3
Tyler White화이트 R 32 DH 395 336 36 79 18 1 10 45 52 92 2 1
Delino DeShields R 30 CF 419 355 46 76 13 2 3 34 55 121 19 6
Sam Hilliard L 29 LF 442 396 55 80 15 3 17 57 42 149 9 2
Luke Waddell L 24 SS 170 155 19 41 8 0 3 17 13 27 1 2
Joe Dunand R 27 3B 379 342 33 70 17 1 7 43 26 126 2 1
Eli White R 29 CF 336 301 41 64 10 2 8 38 28 106 14 3
Ryan Casteel R 32 C 289 264 28 57 11 1 13 39 22 96 0 1
Cody Milligan L 24 CF 509 452 65 108 19 3 2 41 49 116 9 4
Joe Hudson R 32 C 175 156 15 30 4 0 5 20 16 60 0 1
Braden Shewmake L 25 SS 317 296 36 69 12 2 8 35 17 75 4 1
Alex Dickerson L 33 RF 352 320 39 76 16 2 12 45 26 88 1 1
Pat Valaika R 30 2B 418 387 41 88 17 0 9 43 26 112 1 1
Chadwick Tromp R 28 C 261 246 28 57 12 0 9 33 13 68 0 1
Ehire Adrianza B 33 3B 202 178 24 42 8 1 3 22 18 43 1 1
Travis Demeritte R 28 RF 371 335 44 72 17 2 12 44 33 135 5 1
Jesse Franklin V L 24 RF 312 283 31 58 16 2 13 45 20 109 6 2
Justin Dean R 26 CF 391 351 45 72 12 3 5 40 30 139 14 4
Cal Conley B 23 SS 500 458 69 104 17 5 10 53 28 126 14 5
Cade Bunnell L 26 SS 445 386 48 70 17 3 11 45 54 202 2 1
Yariel Gonzalez B 29 SS 400 369 39 86 14 0 10 45 26 96 3 1
Hernan Perez 페레즈 R 32 2B 320 299 36 70 14 0 7 36 18 84 9 2
Eddie Rosario L 31 LF 411 382 47 93 18 1 13 54 24 80 5 1
Robinson Cano L 40 DH 237 223 23 54 12 0 5 26 12 52 0 1
Arden Pabst R 28 C 203 194 15 35 7 1 5 22 7 79 0 1
Ryan Goins L 35 SS 336 310 26 68 12 1 3 27 22 103 1 1
Chris Sharpe R 27 CF 378 334 42 64 20 1 6 42 32 126 6 3
Landon Stephens R 25 LF 451 400 44 78 16 1 16 58 40 182 2 2
Joshua Fuentes R 30 3B 400 380 41 79 14 1 8 41 15 126 1 1
Beau Philip R 24 3B 419 378 41 69 11 1 8 37 35 148 6 3
Hudson Potts R 24 1B 372 346 35 71 18 0 11 46 20 123 1 1
Drew Campbell L 25 CF 379 353 41 76 11 3 7 38 21 102 6 4
Drew Lugbauer L 26 1B 501 453 50 85 22 0 21 64 43 225 0 1
Greyson Jenista L 26 RF 400 364 40 71 12 1 14 46 32 166 2 2
Tyler Tolve L 22 C 308 282 33 55 9 2 9 37 20 111 3 1
Javier Valdes R 24 C 284 248 29 58 11 1 7 38 23 66 1 1
Brandol Mezquita R 21 RF 424 383 39 80 11 3 3 40 29 148 7 4
Bryson Horne L 24 1B 398 374 34 81 15 1 8 41 20 118 2 1
Hendrik Clementina R 26 C 328 309 25 61 8 0 11 39 14 127 0 1

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Austin Riley 636 .276 .347 .525 131 .249 .321 -2 4.8 .370
Ronald Acuña Jr. 577 .274 .371 .504 133 .230 .322 5 4.5 .374
Michael Harris II 618 .274 .324 .467 110 .192 .332 7 4.4 .339
Matt Olson 654 .259 .353 .512 129 .254 .286 6 4.2 .365
Sean Murphy 479 .250 .336 .460 112 .210 .295 5 3.8 .343
Ozzie Albies 576 .270 .321 .471 110 .200 .298 1 3.2 .337
Travis d’Arnaud 366 .266 .322 .451 105 .185 .315 2 2.4 .333
Vaughn Grissom 582 .254 .324 .374 88 .120 .293 -4 1.9 .308
Marcell Ozuna 446 .246 .314 .449 102 .203 .282 -1 1.2 .328
Orlando Arcia 390 .240 .303 .387 84 .147 .273 3 1.2 .300
Hoy Park 445 .227 .321 .346 80 .120 .301 3 1.2 .296
Mitchell Tolman 410 .231 .310 .355 79 .124 .304 4 1.1 .294
Jordan Luplow 298 .209 .312 .446 101 .236 .234 2 1.1 .327
Robbie Grossman 511 .229 .335 .374 91 .144 .298 1 1.0 .314
Kevin Pillar 369 .255 .304 .431 95 .176 .285 -2 1.0 .315
Tyler White 395 .235 .339 .384 95 .149 .295 0 0.7 .320
Delino DeShields 419 .214 .323 .287 67 .073 .316 2 0.6 .281
Sam Hilliard 442 .202 .281 .384 77 .182 .274 7 0.6 .287
Luke Waddell 170 .265 .324 .374 88 .110 .304 1 0.6 .304
Joe Dunand 379 .205 .274 .322 60 .117 .301 8 0.5 .265
Eli White 336 .213 .292 .339 69 .126 .299 1 0.5 .280
Ryan Casteel 289 .216 .280 .413 84 .197 .284 -5 0.3 .298
Cody Milligan 509 .239 .316 .308 70 .069 .317 0 0.3 .281
Joe Hudson 175 .192 .269 .314 57 .122 .275 3 0.3 .259
Braden Shewmake 317 .233 .278 .368 72 .135 .286 -2 0.3 .280
Alex Dickerson 352 .238 .304 .413 91 .175 .291 -3 0.2 .310
Pat Valaika 418 .227 .275 .341 65 .114 .297 3 0.2 .269
Chadwick Tromp 261 .232 .272 .390 76 .159 .284 -4 0.1 .286
Ehire Adrianza 202 .236 .313 .343 77 .107 .295 -2 0.0 .292
Travis Demeritte 371 .215 .288 .385 79 .170 .319 -1 0.0 .294
Jesse Franklin V 312 .205 .269 .413 80 .208 .280 0 0.0 .291
Justin Dean 391 .205 .284 .299 58 .094 .324 2 0.0 .263
Cal Conley 500 .227 .280 .352 69 .124 .292 -6 -0.1 .275
Cade Bunnell 445 .181 .285 .326 65 .145 .341 -5 -0.1 .274
Yariel Gonzalez 400 .233 .285 .352 71 .119 .289 -6 -0.1 .278
Hernan Perez 320 .234 .278 .351 68 .117 .303 -3 -0.2 .275
Eddie Rosario 411 .243 .285 .398 82 .154 .277 -4 -0.4 .293
Robinson Cano 237 .242 .283 .363 72 .121 .295 0 -0.4 .279
Arden Pabst 203 .180 .212 .304 37 .124 .273 3 -0.4 .221
Ryan Goins 336 .219 .269 .294 52 .074 .319 -3 -0.7 .250
Chris Sharpe 378 .192 .276 .311 58 .120 .287 -3 -0.7 .263
Landon Stephens 451 .195 .282 .360 71 .165 .307 -3 -0.7 .283
Joshua Fuentes 400 .208 .243 .313 48 .105 .289 4 -0.8 .241
Beau Philip 419 .183 .258 .280 45 .098 .275 3 -0.9 .243
Hudson Potts 372 .205 .253 .353 61 .147 .283 2 -0.9 .262
Drew Campbell 379 .215 .262 .323 57 .108 .283 -4 -1.0 .256
Drew Lugbauer 501 .188 .263 .375 69 .188 .309 -1 -1.0 .276
Greyson Jenista 400 .195 .263 .349 63 .154 .310 -1 -1.1 .267
Tyler Tolve 308 .195 .256 .337 58 .142 .284 -14 -1.4 .260
Javier Valdes 284 .234 .324 .371 87 .137 .291 -25 -1.5 .308
Brandol Mezquita 424 .209 .276 .277 50 .068 .332 1 -1.5 .249
Bryson Horne 398 .217 .259 .326 56 .110 .294 -1 -1.5 .256
Hendrik Clementina 328 .197 .238 .330 51 .133 .292 -12 -1.6 .247

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Austin Riley Vern Stephens Whitey Kurowski Jim Ray Hart
Ronald Acuña Jr. Earl Torgeson Kal Daniels Dave Winfield
Michael Harris II Vada Pinson Claudell Washington Bobby Tolan
Matt Olson David Ortiz Mark Teixeira Roger Maris
Sean Murphy Devin Mesoraco Miguel Montero Jason Castro
Ozzie Albies Robin Yount Dickie Thon Pie Traynor
Travis d’Arnaud Babe Phelps Terry Steinbach Ferrell Anderson
Vaughn Grissom Tony Fernandez Edgar Renteria Alan Trammell
Marcell Ozuna Tommie Reynolds Babe Dahlgren Bubba Trammell
Orlando Arcia Gene Robertson Ken Boswell Benny Valenzuela
Hoy Park Don Eaddy Dave Edler Daniel Muno
Mitchell Tolman Stubby Clapp John Powers Ryan Pineda
Jordan Luplow Greg Vaughn Chris Young Bob Hamelin
Robbie Grossman Kosuke Fukudome Bobby Del Greco George Burns
Kevin Pillar Carl Reynolds Jack Tobin Jody Gerut
Tyler White Ed Bouchee Hank Thompson Denis Menke
Delino DeShields Jason McDonald Quintin Berry Gregor Blanco
Sam Hilliard Louie Meadows Brad Tyler Bob Speake
Luke Waddell Julio Perez Neil Sellers Andres Forbes
Joe Dunand Mark Threlkeld John Lung Chad Spann
Eli White Herm Winningham Gale Wade Reggie Thomas
Ryan Casteel Eddie Ainsmith Bruce Bochy Tim Laudner
Cody Milligan Jordan Henry Matt Angle Neil Martin
Joe Hudson Cal Neeman Bob Tillman Duffy Dyer
Braden Shewmake Freddy Galvis Ron Gardenhire Joey Wong
Alex Dickerson Brian Hunter Steve Stroughter Ray Barker
Pat Valaika Benjamin Tompkins Juan Lopez Ed Lucas
Chadwick Tromp Bruce Bochy Bob Melvin Bob Davis
Ehire Adrianza Greg Legg Chico Ruiz Ramon Santiago
Travis Demeritte Bob Bowman Dave Edwards Mike Kelly
Jesse Franklin V Corey Dickerson Larry Kiesling Casper Wells
Justin Dean Scarborough Green Julio Martinez Nick Heath
Cal Conley Travis Dawkins Rob Valido Nelson Castro
Cade Bunnell Mitch Walding Shanie Dugas Johnny Knott
Yariel Gonzalez Nanny Fernandez Jermy Acey Hod Ford
Hernan Perez Steven Collette Bill Almon Pedro Gonzalez
Eddie Rosario Roman Mejias Max Marshall Tsuyoshi Shinjo
Robinson Cano Greg Dobbs Dick Sisler Thomas Howard
Arden Pabst Gary Tremblay Jorge Meran Jimmy Gonzalez
Ryan Goins Jeff Branson Tim Hulett Jorge Velandia
Chris Sharpe Shawn Payne Terry Banderas Brenden Webb
Landon Stephens Rich Barry Chito Martinez Stetson Allie
Joshua Fuentes Jeremiah Piepkorn Lee Crow Mike Sinnerud
Beau Philip Mike Koritko Robert Grenda Mark Cunningham
Hudson Potts Alex Cabrera Walter Poole Chris Richburg
Drew Campbell Keanon Simon Evan Cherry Luke Barganier
Drew Lugbauer Wes Clements Chip Cannon Steve Balboni
Greyson Jenista Patrick Breen Andy Brown Tom Dodd
Tyler Tolve Steve Hershner Darrell Miller Russ Gibson
Javier Valdes Dave Valle Ted Brazell Sal D’Alessandro
Brandol Mezquita Lavell Cudjo Jon Scott Chris Arnold
Bryson Horne Ivy Griffin Jaime Ortiz Frazier Hall
Hendrik Clementina Justin Pickett Randall Schafer Chuck Staniland

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Austin Riley .300 .373 .587 151 6.4 .248 .324 .466 110 3.2
Ronald Acuña Jr. .300 .401 .560 151 5.9 .250 .346 .447 111 3.0
Michael Harris II .302 .353 .525 130 5.9 .241 .293 .407 86 2.3
Matt Olson .282 .378 .575 152 6.0 .236 .331 .466 114 3.0
Sean Murphy .275 .363 .515 132 5.0 .225 .311 .405 93 2.6
Ozzie Albies .293 .345 .528 131 4.8 .245 .296 .419 92 1.9
Travis d’Arnaud .295 .348 .506 127 3.3 .239 .292 .393 86 1.4
Vaughn Grissom .282 .349 .423 106 3.3 .232 .302 .337 73 0.8
Marcell Ozuna .272 .340 .503 121 2.3 .218 .286 .389 80 0.0
Orlando Arcia .269 .327 .438 103 2.1 .216 .276 .333 66 0.2
Hoy Park .254 .345 .398 97 2.1 .199 .293 .304 62 0.2
Mitchell Tolman .258 .339 .399 96 2.1 .200 .283 .308 58 0.1
Jordan Luplow .232 .336 .516 122 1.8 .188 .293 .395 84 0.5
Robbie Grossman .256 .361 .422 109 2.1 .205 .305 .321 72 -0.2
Kevin Pillar .281 .327 .482 114 1.9 .227 .278 .382 77 0.2
Tyler White .260 .366 .435 114 1.6 .207 .312 .336 74 -0.3
Delino DeShields .238 .350 .320 83 1.5 .188 .294 .250 50 -0.3
Sam Hilliard .229 .311 .441 98 1.8 .176 .255 .329 55 -0.5
Luke Waddell .295 .354 .420 108 1.0 .236 .296 .326 68 0.2
Joe Dunand .230 .301 .370 80 1.4 .179 .247 .279 43 -0.4
Eli White .244 .321 .390 91 1.3 .186 .261 .296 50 -0.4
Ryan Casteel .241 .308 .474 105 1.1 .190 .255 .351 62 -0.5
Cody Milligan .263 .344 .343 85 1.4 .211 .289 .272 53 -0.7
Joe Hudson .224 .299 .377 77 0.8 .166 .239 .258 36 -0.2
Braden Shewmake .259 .307 .418 91 1.1 .202 .251 .318 52 -0.5
Alex Dickerson .262 .327 .469 111 1.1 .210 .276 .363 72 -0.6
Pat Valaika .256 .306 .379 83 1.1 .201 .249 .292 45 -0.9
Chadwick Tromp .264 .302 .450 96 0.8 .204 .244 .334 54 -0.6
Ehire Adrianza .268 .341 .385 95 0.4 .209 .284 .298 60 -0.4
Travis Demeritte .241 .314 .436 99 1.0 .187 .263 .332 58 -1.0
Jesse Franklin V .231 .296 .475 101 0.8 .178 .244 .360 59 -0.8
Justin Dean .232 .307 .343 73 0.8 .176 .257 .260 40 -0.9
Cal Conley .251 .307 .401 88 1.1 .202 .255 .311 52 -1.1
Cade Bunnell .210 .312 .381 85 0.9 .155 .258 .271 44 -1.3
Yariel Gonzalez .260 .315 .398 89 0.8 .209 .263 .304 51 -1.2
Hernan Perez .263 .307 .403 88 0.6 .206 .250 .310 51 -0.9
Eddie Rosario .274 .318 .447 102 0.7 .217 .259 .347 61 -1.5
Robinson Cano .274 .314 .414 92 0.2 .211 .255 .319 53 -1.0
Arden Pabst .215 .247 .361 58 0.2 .151 .182 .248 14 -1.0
Ryan Goins .245 .299 .333 70 0.1 .192 .243 .256 37 -1.4
Chris Sharpe .216 .302 .349 75 0.1 .165 .247 .266 39 -1.6
Landon Stephens .221 .309 .410 90 0.3 .167 .253 .303 50 -1.9
Joshua Fuentes .235 .269 .361 66 0.2 .181 .214 .270 29 -1.8
Beau Philip .208 .284 .322 62 0.1 .155 .232 .238 29 -1.7
Hudson Potts .232 .278 .396 78 0.0 .180 .226 .304 42 -1.8
Drew Campbell .242 .289 .374 77 0.0 .193 .240 .289 43 -1.6
Drew Lugbauer .215 .289 .429 87 0.1 .159 .236 .315 48 -2.4
Greyson Jenista .223 .290 .403 82 -0.1 .170 .235 .294 43 -2.0
Tyler Tolve .222 .280 .388 77 -0.7 .171 .230 .282 38 -2.2
Javier Valdes .270 .358 .437 112 -0.6 .202 .300 .324 69 -2.1
Brandol Mezquita .236 .306 .317 66 -0.6 .181 .253 .239 34 -2.4
Bryson Horne .241 .285 .365 75 -0.6 .193 .234 .284 42 -2.4
Hendrik Clementina .224 .266 .383 69 -0.8 .169 .207 .280 30 -2.5

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Raisel Iglesias R 33 7 2 2.76 61 0 58.7 46 18 7 14 78
Max Fried L 29 15 6 3.02 29 29 172.7 159 58 15 39 159
A.J. Minter L 29 6 3 3.06 69 0 61.7 51 21 7 18 78
Dylan Lee L 28 5 2 3.15 54 0 60.0 52 21 7 14 68
Spencer Strider R 24 10 5 3.16 30 21 122.3 93 43 14 43 168
Collin McHugh R 36 4 1 3.17 44 3 59.7 52 21 6 16 62
Lucas Luetge L 36 5 2 3.38 46 0 53.3 52 20 5 16 54
Kirby Yates R 36 1 1 3.45 34 1 31.3 27 12 4 12 39
Charlie Morton R 39 9 6 3.68 28 28 156.7 134 64 18 54 173
Joe Jiménez R 28 4 2 3.68 56 0 51.3 40 21 7 18 71
Nick Anderson R 32 3 1 3.75 39 0 36.0 36 15 6 9 38
Kyle Wright R 27 13 8 3.81 27 26 151.3 140 64 18 49 144
Tyler Matzek L 32 3 2 3.83 50 0 49.3 41 21 5 26 48
Mike Soroka R 25 8 5 3.87 20 20 111.7 114 48 14 32 86
Michael Tonkin R 33 4 3 3.89 42 0 41.7 35 18 6 18 53
R.J. Alaniz R 32 3 1 3.93 30 0 36.7 32 16 4 16 43
Jackson Stephens R 29 5 3 3.94 39 2 61.7 60 27 6 25 55
Bryce Elder R 24 9 7 3.97 26 25 142.7 134 63 17 56 130
Victor Vodnik R 23 2 1 4.01 33 4 42.7 37 19 5 25 49
Jesse Chavez R 39 3 3 4.09 46 3 55.0 55 25 8 19 53
Huascar Ynoa R 25 7 5 4.12 20 18 87.3 81 40 12 36 90
Ian Anderson R 25 9 7 4.14 25 25 128.3 121 59 17 57 121
Seth Elledge R 27 3 3 4.15 42 1 47.7 45 22 6 22 50
Thomas Burrows L 28 3 3 4.20 34 0 40.7 35 19 5 21 45
Brandon Brennan R 31 2 2 4.21 30 0 36.3 34 17 4 18 33
Coleman Huntley R 30 3 3 4.24 31 2 57.3 57 27 8 23 55
Kolby Allard L 25 6 5 4.24 28 20 110.3 107 52 17 37 105
Darren O’Day R 40 2 2 4.24 29 0 23.3 21 11 3 9 24
Jared Shuster L 24 7 6 4.26 24 22 112.0 112 53 17 36 95
Roel Ramirez R 28 3 2 4.27 33 3 46.3 44 22 6 21 48
Danny Young L 29 2 1 4.29 38 0 42.0 38 20 5 21 47
Allan Winans R 27 3 3 4.32 17 9 58.3 58 28 7 19 43
Brad Brach R 37 2 2 4.33 28 0 27.0 27 13 3 13 27
Dennis Santana R 27 5 5 4.34 52 5 64.3 59 31 7 31 63
Roddery Munoz R 23 6 5 4.42 21 21 95.7 97 47 14 43 86
Tanner Gordon R 25 9 7 4.43 23 22 103.7 112 51 16 31 78
Ty Tice R 26 2 2 4.46 30 0 34.3 34 17 5 18 31
Jesus Cruz R 28 2 3 4.46 37 0 38.3 34 19 5 22 43
Brooks Wilson R 27 2 2 4.47 22 4 46.3 47 23 8 19 46
Alan Rangel R 25 6 6 4.47 24 23 108.7 112 54 15 41 85
Darius Vines R 25 6 5 4.48 20 20 94.3 98 47 17 32 85
Nolan Kingham R 26 6 6 4.56 25 18 94.7 108 48 15 23 61
Dylan Dodd L 25 10 9 4.58 23 23 112.0 117 57 19 37 83
Connor Johnstone R 28 5 4 4.58 32 10 70.7 80 36 10 21 41
Yacksel Ríos R 30 3 3 4.81 34 1 39.3 37 21 5 25 38
Hayden Deal L 28 3 4 4.82 25 11 71.0 78 38 11 29 51
Jasseel De La Cruz R 26 3 4 4.94 19 12 58.3 61 32 9 29 47
Jake Elliott R 28 3 3 5.08 35 1 51.3 54 29 9 23 44
Brandyn Sittinger R 29 2 2 5.20 26 2 36.3 36 21 7 21 37

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Raisel Iglesias 58.7 12.0 2.1 1.1 6.0% 33.2% .291 151 2.86 66 1.5
Max Fried 172.7 8.3 2.0 0.8 5.5% 22.3% .293 138 3.22 72 4.3
A.J. Minter 61.7 11.4 2.6 1.0 7.1% 30.8% .299 136 3.07 73 1.2
Dylan Lee 60.0 10.2 2.1 1.1 5.7% 27.9% .294 133 3.15 75 1.0
Spencer Strider 122.3 12.4 3.2 1.0 8.5% 33.3% .292 132 3.12 76 2.9
Collin McHugh 59.7 9.4 2.4 0.9 6.6% 25.4% .289 132 3.34 76 1.1
Lucas Luetge 53.3 9.1 2.7 0.8 7.0% 23.7% .315 124 3.47 81 0.7
Kirby Yates 31.3 11.2 3.4 1.1 9.0% 29.3% .303 121 3.86 83 0.5
Charlie Morton 156.7 9.9 3.1 1.0 8.3% 26.5% .288 114 3.74 88 2.9
Joe Jiménez 51.3 12.4 3.2 1.2 8.5% 33.6% .292 113 3.45 88 0.5
Nick Anderson 36.0 9.5 2.3 1.5 5.9% 24.8% .306 111 4.04 90 0.3
Kyle Wright 151.3 8.6 2.9 1.1 7.6% 22.5% .290 110 3.99 91 2.6
Tyler Matzek 49.3 8.8 4.7 0.9 11.9% 22.0% .271 109 4.23 92 0.4
Mike Soroka 111.7 6.9 2.6 1.1 6.7% 18.0% .293 108 4.26 93 1.8
Michael Tonkin 41.7 11.4 3.9 1.3 10.2% 30.1% .293 107 4.07 93 0.3
R.J. Alaniz 36.7 10.6 3.9 1.0 10.2% 27.4% .301 106 3.70 94 0.3
Jackson Stephens 61.7 8.0 3.6 0.9 9.4% 20.6% .300 106 4.00 94 0.5
Bryce Elder 142.7 8.2 3.5 1.1 9.0% 21.0% .289 105 4.23 95 2.2
Victor Vodnik 42.7 10.3 5.3 1.1 13.2% 25.9% .296 104 4.21 96 0.4
Jesse Chavez 55.0 8.7 3.1 1.3 8.0% 22.4% .303 102 4.26 98 0.4
Huascar Ynoa 87.3 9.3 3.7 1.2 9.5% 23.9% .294 101 4.25 99 1.2
Ian Anderson 128.3 8.5 4.0 1.2 10.2% 21.6% .290 101 4.35 99 1.7
Seth Elledge 47.7 9.4 4.2 1.1 10.3% 23.4% .302 100 4.20 100 0.3
Thomas Burrows 40.7 10.0 4.6 1.1 11.8% 25.3% .288 99 4.38 101 0.2
Brandon Brennan 36.3 8.2 4.5 1.0 11.3% 20.6% .291 99 4.42 101 0.1
Coleman Huntley 57.3 8.6 3.6 1.3 9.2% 22.0% .302 98 4.46 102 0.4
Kolby Allard 110.3 8.6 3.0 1.4 7.9% 22.3% .292 98 4.34 102 1.3
Darren O’Day 23.3 9.3 3.5 1.2 9.2% 24.5% .290 98 4.18 102 0.1
Jared Shuster 112.0 7.6 2.9 1.4 7.5% 19.8% .290 98 4.39 102 1.4
Roel Ramirez 46.3 9.3 4.1 1.2 10.2% 23.3% .302 98 4.32 102 0.3
Danny Young 42.0 10.1 4.5 1.1 11.4% 25.4% .303 97 4.32 103 0.1
Allan Winans 58.3 6.6 2.9 1.1 7.4% 16.8% .285 97 4.52 103 0.6
Brad Brach 27.0 9.0 4.3 1.0 10.8% 22.5% .316 96 4.15 104 0.1
Dennis Santana 64.3 8.8 4.3 1.0 10.9% 22.2% .292 96 4.29 104 0.4
Roddery Munoz 95.7 8.1 4.0 1.3 10.1% 20.2% .300 94 4.64 106 1.0
Tanner Gordon 103.7 6.8 2.7 1.4 6.9% 17.3% .299 94 4.64 106 1.1
Ty Tice 34.3 8.1 4.7 1.3 11.5% 19.7% .293 94 4.99 107 0.0
Jesus Cruz 38.3 10.1 5.2 1.2 12.9% 25.1% .293 94 4.56 107 0.0
Brooks Wilson 46.3 8.9 3.7 1.6 9.1% 22.0% .302 93 4.77 107 0.3
Alan Rangel 108.7 7.0 3.4 1.2 8.6% 17.8% .294 93 4.68 107 1.1
Darius Vines 94.3 8.1 3.1 1.6 7.8% 20.7% .298 93 4.71 107 1.0
Nolan Kingham 94.7 5.8 2.2 1.4 5.6% 14.8% .302 91 4.75 109 0.9
Dylan Dodd 112.0 6.7 3.0 1.5 7.6% 17.0% .287 91 4.92 110 1.0
Connor Johnstone 70.7 5.2 2.7 1.3 6.8% 13.2% .298 91 4.81 110 0.5
Yacksel Ríos 39.3 8.7 5.7 1.1 13.7% 20.8% .294 87 5.01 115 -0.1
Hayden Deal 71.0 6.5 3.7 1.4 9.1% 16.0% .300 87 5.17 115 0.4
Jasseel De La Cruz 58.3 7.3 4.5 1.4 10.9% 17.7% .295 85 5.24 118 0.3
Jake Elliott 51.3 7.7 4.0 1.6 9.9% 19.0% .298 82 5.24 122 -0.2
Brandyn Sittinger 36.3 9.2 5.2 1.7 12.7% 22.3% .293 80 5.52 125 -0.2

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Raisel Iglesias Jonathan Papelbon Rollie Fingers Alejandro Pena 2.2 0.7 1.93 4.00
Max Fried CC Sabathia Vida Blue Jim Kaat 5.2 3.2 2.59 3.56
A.J. Minter Don Mossi Willie Hernandez Norm Charlton 1.9 0.4 2.08 4.55
Dylan Lee Jose Luis Garcia Tom Gorman Gabe White 1.6 0.4 2.40 4.22
Spencer Strider Van Mungo Tom Cheney Rich Harden 3.9 1.9 2.55 3.78
Collin McHugh Craig Stammen Jonathan Papelbon Seunghwan Oh 오승환 1.7 0.5 2.33 4.39
Lucas Luetge Chris Hammond Brian Shouse Morrie Martin 1.1 0.1 2.61 4.57
Kirby Yates Jay Howell Satchel Paige Dave Smith 0.9 0.1 1.93 7.74
Charlie Morton Phil Niekro Early Wynn Virgil Trucks 4.0 1.6 3.00 4.57
Joe Jiménez Dave Tobik Dan Miceli Luis Vizcaino 1.0 -0.1 2.86 4.67
Nick Anderson Blas Minor Rod Beck Claude Raymond 0.7 -0.1 2.96 5.17
Kyle Wright Shelby Miller Mike Witt Sonny Gray 3.6 1.6 3.31 4.33
Tyler Matzek Zack Britton Darold Knowles Ryan Buchter 0.8 -0.2 3.11 5.11
Mike Soroka Joe Overton Alejandro Romero Ike Delock 2.5 1.1 3.40 4.50
Michael Tonkin Matt Hammons Don Brennan Doug Bair 0.7 -0.3 3.03 5.26
R.J. Alaniz Johnny Murphy Hector Navarro Jairo Asencio 어센시오 0.6 -0.2 3.06 5.11
Jackson Stephens Dave Pavlas John Gregory Mike Buddie 0.9 0.0 3.39 4.66
Bryce Elder Jay Tibbs Geremi Gonzalez Tommy Hughes 3.0 1.1 3.57 4.67
Victor Vodnik Rick Carriger Kevin Dinnen Mark Brown 0.8 0.1 3.34 4.66
Jesse Chavez Bob Muncrief Scott Atchison Doug Brocail 0.9 -0.2 3.04 5.42
Huascar Ynoa Taylor Widener Javier De La Hoya Paul Fletcher 1.8 0.5 3.53 4.76
Ian Anderson John Gant Jake Arrieta Thomas Arruda 2.4 0.7 3.72 4.77
Seth Elledge Greg Resz Jack Lazorko Adalberto Flores 0.7 -0.1 3.54 4.97
Thomas Burrows Jaime Cerda Matt Smith Josh Edgin 0.5 -0.3 3.48 5.08
Brandon Brennan Pete Appleton Aurelio Monteagudo Gary Waslewski 0.4 -0.2 3.64 4.99
Coleman Huntley Malcolm Warren Craig Holman David Shepard 0.8 -0.2 3.67 5.13
Kolby Allard Jerry Garvin Matt Boyd Ryan Borucki 2.0 0.4 3.71 4.98
Darren O’Day Dan Miceli Kazuhiro Sasaki Joe Borowski 0.3 -0.2 3.20 5.80
Jared Shuster Jerry Garvin Yohan Flande 플란데 Ryan Borucki 2.0 0.6 3.79 4.92
Roel Ramirez Hassan Pena Scott Gracey R.J. Alaniz 0.8 -0.2 3.52 5.10
Danny Young Carl Sadler Frankie Reed Johnnie Seale 0.5 -0.3 3.56 5.17
Allan Winans Ken Sanders Paul Click Marc Valdes 1.0 0.2 3.80 4.88
Brad Brach Scott Kamieniecki Milo Candini Joe Strong 스트롱 0.3 -0.3 3.44 5.49
Dennis Santana Wayne Kirby Ray Miller Jeff Cornell 0.9 -0.2 3.80 5.18
Roddery Munoz Dan Denham Steve Dreyer Jon McDonald 1.5 0.3 4.01 5.01
Tanner Gordon Mike McCardell Rich Strasser Rick White 1.7 0.4 3.94 5.07
Ty Tice Daniel Stange Jeff Harris Donald Hammitt 0.2 -0.3 3.94 5.08
Jesus Cruz Bill Wilson Chad Harville Fred Lasher 0.3 -0.4 3.79 5.67
Brooks Wilson Derek Hasselhoff Justin Knoff Mike Natale 0.7 -0.1 3.79 5.15
Alan Rangel Jacob Turner 터너 Gaby Hernandez Jose Paniagua 1.7 0.4 4.03 5.05
Darius Vines Jared Jensen Jose Rosario Chris Corn 1.7 0.3 3.86 5.14
Nolan Kingham Griffin Jax Blake Beavan Matt Pearce 1.4 0.3 4.08 5.12
Dylan Dodd Tom Zachary Ryan Carpenter 카펜터 Sam Howard 1.5 0.2 4.15 5.16
Connor Johnstone Dustin Bolton Jarrett Santos Brad Rigby 0.8 0.0 4.20 5.15
Yacksel Ríos Marc Pisciotta Adam Reifer Ken Ryan 0.3 -0.5 4.05 5.93
Hayden Deal Mike Bell Derrin Ebert Zac Cline 0.8 -0.2 4.34 5.49
Jasseel De La Cruz Nicky Curtis Grant Johnson Greg Holt 0.6 -0.2 4.43 5.52
Jake Elliott James Pugliese Steven Spurgeon Mike Browning 0.2 -0.7 4.45 6.09
Brandyn Sittinger Erik Bennett Julio Solano Charlie Sullivan 0.2 -0.6 4.48 6.36

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

118 Comments
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Cave Dameron
6 days ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

Thank you Dan, very cool!

lavarnway
6 days ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

I can understand wanting to keep Braves fans out of the comments. Might get the “where’s Nick Markakis?” crowd lol.

Francoeursteinmember
6 days ago
Reply to  lavarnway

I don’t blame ya. They are so obnoxious!

hughduffy
6 days ago
Reply to  lavarnway

Braves fans should know where Markakis is.
After all, Moses never made it to the promised land (World Series).

Last edited 6 days ago by hughduffy