2023 ZiPS Projections: Minnesota Twins

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and today’s team is the Minnesota Twins.

Batters

Even with Carlos Correa unsigned, Minnesota’s offense looks solid, though there’s a larger-than-normal dropoff if injuries happen to hit hard. And unfortunately, there are lots of places for injuries to hit the Twins hard; it seems unlikely that Byron Buxton is ever going to play 140 games again, and Royce Lewis‘ exact return from a torn ACL is speculative. Left field appears to be a problem at present time, and though ZiPS was at one time fairly high on Alex Kirilloff, injuries and some mediocre cups-of-coffee during his healthy interregnums have caused his projection to deteriorate considerably in the last couple of years. It’s a moot point now that the Mets have brought back Brandon Nimmo, but given the outfield options, I’m not necessarily sure that Correa is that much more desirable than Nimmo would have been, something I probably wouldn’t say for almost every other team.

I’m sad to see a rather bland Luis Arraez projection; he’s one of my favorite players to watch hit, since he plays more like someone from 1922. But in the end, while he’s a fun throwback to a different time in style, he plays in 2022, and his lack of power puts a fairly hard ceiling on his value as a first baseman. If he had been a better middle infielder, he might be one of baseball’s best young bets to join the 3,000 hit club, though he’d probably be the worst player to collect 3,000 hits overall! If he’s truly limited to first base, Arraez probably fades out of the league fairly quickly; a .280/.340/.370 first baseman isn’t really a starter unless he plays defense like a futuristic cyborg Keith Hernandez.

Buxton’s comp is a fun one, if not an overwhelmingly heartening one. Jeff Heath, like Buxton, was another extremely talented player who suffered a lot of injuries, such as bad knees from high school football, a broken ankle, and a hand injury. He had prospects as a football player, but it was his injuries as a teenager that got him firmly on the baseball route. The similarities end there; Heath’s favorite hobby was getting into fistfights with just about anyone (he hurt his hand punching a fan). I still hope we get a healthy Buxton at some point.

There’s a pretty big difference in how Steamer and ZiPS project Lewis, but if I’m being perfectly honest, I’m not sure which one I’m closer to on; we’ve just seen so little of him healthy in recent years. That, and his performance has been all over the map. There’s almost no level of results for him that would completely surprise me.

Pitchers

I’m sure everyone has things in their life that are fine/OK but for which they have a complete lack of enthusiasm. The Twins’ pitching projections are far from actually being poor, but there’s just such a blandness about it that it’s hard to conjure up much gusto. Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, and Tyler Mahle are all serviceable more than scintillating, and the team has a bevy of perfectly reasonable fourth and fifth starter options available. This group would look a lot better if it had a bonafide ace at the helm. Perhaps if the Twins lose out in the Correa contract race, they could check in on Carlos Rodón? The good news here is that in what is a relatively weak division, this rotation wouldn’t prevent them from making the playoffs.

The bullpen could use some work this winter; there’s a very steep drop from Jorge López and Jhoan Duran at the top. As with the rotation, it’s not so weak a group that it’s actively hurting Minnesota’s shot at winning the division, though it’s hard to muster up much passion about this pen. ZiPS remains a big proponent of Cody Stashak, but he’s had a major shoulder injury and is a free agent after being outrighted by the Twins. If they had more confidence in his recovery from his torn labrum, he’d likely still be on the roster.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Carlos Correa R 28 SS 592 521 77 144 28 1 24 77 62 117 0 1
Byron Buxton R 29 CF 350 316 62 81 21 2 22 51 26 96 7 1
Jorge Polanco B 29 2B 567 503 79 132 26 2 22 73 56 107 5 4
Jose Miranda R 25 1B 594 545 71 156 31 0 19 88 36 97 2 2
Luis Arraez L 26 1B 583 524 78 159 26 3 6 51 52 45 3 3
Royce Lewis R 24 SS 364 330 52 85 22 1 11 48 28 74 11 3
Max Kepler L 30 RF 472 412 62 95 22 2 16 53 50 79 4 2
Ryan Jeffers R 26 C 355 318 38 72 13 1 14 45 31 98 0 1
Edouard Julien L 24 2B 502 424 59 93 20 2 12 61 70 163 11 4
Gary Sanchez R 30 C 433 383 48 84 18 1 21 57 41 122 1 1
Kyle Farmer R 32 SS 499 455 47 110 20 1 10 56 25 93 3 2
Yunior Severino B 23 3B 381 343 35 77 19 2 10 51 31 119 0 1
Curtis Terry R 26 1B 397 356 43 87 20 2 11 56 30 85 1 1
Mikey Perez R 23 2B 413 369 50 81 24 1 7 60 30 114 21 4
Nick Gordon L 27 LF 400 368 45 95 22 3 10 47 20 93 9 3
Tyler White 화이트 R 32 DH 395 336 35 77 18 1 9 45 52 92 2 1
Alex Kirilloff L 25 LF 332 304 37 76 14 1 10 50 22 71 1 1
Michael Helman R 27 2B 502 460 62 100 19 3 12 53 38 114 14 3
Elliot Soto R 33 SS 334 302 38 65 14 2 2 31 28 88 5 2
Miguel Sanó R 30 1B 425 375 53 80 19 0 22 57 47 150 2 1
Braden Bishop R 29 LF 323 296 39 69 14 2 6 38 22 84 7 2
Kyle Garlick R 31 LF 227 208 30 50 12 1 11 30 15 73 1 1
Matt Wallner L 25 RF 537 468 59 99 24 3 17 80 55 200 3 2
Austin Martin R 24 SS 415 355 50 82 16 2 2 58 39 81 15 4
Tim Beckham R 33 2B 210 193 25 48 11 0 7 27 14 59 1 1
Trevor Larnach L 26 LF 381 337 39 79 17 0 10 43 35 120 1 1
Brooks Lee B 22 SS 146 133 14 32 5 0 3 16 12 27 0 1
Sandy Leon B 34 C 190 168 13 34 5 0 3 13 18 51 0 1
Anthony Prato R 25 LF 483 426 55 97 21 4 5 58 41 136 9 4
Jair Camargo R 23 C 326 309 31 64 9 1 11 40 13 136 2 1
Ernie Yake L 25 SS 156 144 15 33 7 0 0 12 9 28 4 2
Roy Morales R 28 1B 304 273 33 72 11 0 2 32 26 46 2 1
Andrew Bechtold R 27 3B 464 419 43 85 18 0 11 45 42 163 1 1
Will Holland R 25 CF 401 356 43 68 13 3 7 46 33 145 13 4
Mark Contreras L 28 CF 457 414 53 82 21 2 12 59 31 155 12 3
Dalton Shuffield R 24 2B 97 89 9 19 2 2 3 12 8 30 2 1
Derek Fisher L 29 RF 249 220 31 44 9 1 6 26 26 83 3 1
Gilberto Celestino R 24 CF 422 383 38 88 19 1 5 38 35 94 4 2
Alerick Soularie R 23 2B 346 309 49 62 11 2 6 38 30 105 8 3
Alex Isola R 24 DH 326 293 31 66 11 0 9 36 29 82 0 1
Billy Hamilton R 32 CF 202 184 31 35 8 1 1 10 15 66 16 2
DaShawn Keirsey Jr. L 26 CF 405 373 35 77 16 3 5 39 24 127 16 4
Cole Sturgeon L 31 RF 419 386 39 91 15 3 5 44 25 89 5 3
Jake Rucker R 23 3B 497 441 52 93 20 5 5 58 38 136 8 7
Nash Knight B 30 2B 338 295 35 57 14 1 5 34 36 116 1 2
John Andreoli R 33 LF 376 316 40 56 12 2 8 35 53 152 8 2
Aaron Sabato R 24 1B 443 386 47 72 17 0 14 56 47 164 1 1
David Bañuelos R 26 C 205 191 19 36 8 1 4 21 10 72 0 1
Seth Gray L 25 3B 486 437 45 82 13 1 10 58 35 183 4 2
Wander Javier R 24 SS 444 412 41 75 13 5 9 46 24 179 2 2
Pat Winkel L 23 C 201 184 14 37 8 0 3 19 16 70 0 1
Chris Williams R 26 1B 424 374 40 72 17 1 13 47 44 158 1 1
Kyler Fedko R 23 RF 445 400 55 89 17 3 6 47 37 112 6 2
Kyle Schmidt R 25 C 200 185 14 34 5 0 2 17 12 68 0 1
Willie Joe Garry Jr. L 23 RF 297 266 30 46 8 5 2 25 24 118 9 3

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Carlos Correa 592 .276 .355 .472 130 .196 .316 7 5.6 .355
Byron Buxton 350 .256 .323 .544 137 .288 .298 8 3.9 .365
Jorge Polanco 567 .262 .337 .453 119 .191 .294 -3 3.2 .340
Jose Miranda 594 .286 .340 .448 119 .161 .319 5 2.9 .340
Luis Arraez 583 .303 .365 .399 115 .095 .323 2 2.3 .335
Royce Lewis 364 .258 .321 .430 109 .173 .302 -1 2.1 .325
Max Kepler 472 .231 .320 .410 103 .180 .249 7 2.0 .317
Ryan Jeffers 355 .226 .302 .406 97 .179 .282 3 1.9 .308
Edouard Julien 502 .219 .337 .361 97 .142 .325 -2 1.8 .312
Gary Sanchez 433 .219 .305 .436 105 .217 .263 -6 1.7 .319
Kyle Farmer 499 .242 .299 .356 83 .114 .284 1 1.4 .288
Yunior Severino 381 .224 .297 .379 88 .155 .313 5 1.3 .295
Curtis Terry 397 .244 .317 .404 101 .160 .292 2 0.9 .315
Mikey Perez 413 .220 .300 .347 82 .127 .298 -1 0.9 .288
Nick Gordon 400 .258 .304 .416 100 .158 .321 -1 0.7 .309
Tyler White 395 .229 .334 .369 98 .140 .289 0 0.7 .312
Alex Kirilloff 332 .250 .310 .401 98 .151 .296 0 0.7 .309
Michael Helman 502 .217 .279 .350 75 .133 .263 -1 0.5 .276
Elliot Soto 334 .215 .287 .295 65 .079 .297 2 0.4 .262
Miguel Sanó 425 .213 .304 .440 106 .227 .286 -6 0.4 .320
Braden Bishop 323 .233 .294 .355 81 .122 .306 3 0.4 .285
Kyle Garlick 227 .240 .300 .466 111 .226 .315 -4 0.4 .327
Matt Wallner 537 .212 .309 .385 94 .173 .327 -4 0.3 .303
Austin Martin 415 .231 .337 .304 83 .073 .294 -11 0.3 .295
Tim Beckham 210 .249 .305 .415 100 .166 .323 -5 0.3 .311
Trevor Larnach 381 .234 .315 .374 93 .139 .333 -2 0.3 .302
Brooks Lee 146 .241 .308 .346 84 .105 .282 -1 0.2 .291
Sandy Leon 190 .202 .286 .286 62 .083 .272 2 0.2 .260
Anthony Prato 483 .228 .311 .331 81 .103 .323 1 0.2 .287
Jair Camargo 326 .207 .245 .350 65 .142 .327 1 0.2 .258
Ernie Yake 156 .229 .276 .278 57 .049 .284 3 0.2 .247
Roy Morales 304 .264 .336 .326 88 .062 .311 0 0.2 .296
Andrew Bechtold 464 .203 .276 .325 68 .122 .302 1 0.0 .267
Will Holland 401 .191 .278 .303 64 .112 .299 1 0.0 .262
Mark Contreras 457 .198 .267 .345 71 .147 .283 -1 0.0 .268
Dalton Shuffield 97 .213 .278 .382 83 .169 .286 -2 -0.1 .287
Derek Fisher 249 .200 .289 .332 74 .132 .290 1 -0.1 .277
Gilberto Celestino 422 .230 .299 .324 76 .094 .292 -5 -0.1 .278
Alerick Soularie 346 .201 .280 .307 65 .107 .283 -1 -0.1 .263
Alex Isola 326 .225 .298 .355 83 .130 .282 0 -0.1 .288
Billy Hamilton 202 .190 .250 .261 44 .071 .291 2 -0.2 .230
DaShawn Keirsey Jr. 405 .206 .262 .306 59 .099 .299 2 -0.2 .251
Cole Sturgeon 419 .236 .289 .329 73 .093 .295 3 -0.2 .273
Jake Rucker 497 .211 .286 .313 69 .102 .293 -1 -0.3 .267
Nash Knight 338 .193 .293 .298 67 .105 .299 -3 -0.3 .269
John Andreoli 376 .177 .297 .304 70 .127 .308 0 -0.4 .273
Aaron Sabato 443 .187 .284 .339 75 .153 .279 2 -0.4 .277
David Bañuelos 205 .188 .235 .304 50 .115 .278 -1 -0.4 .236
Seth Gray 486 .188 .267 .291 57 .103 .295 0 -0.7 .251
Wander Javier 444 .182 .236 .303 50 .121 .295 0 -0.8 .237
Pat Winkel 201 .201 .269 .293 58 .092 .306 -9 -1.0 .252
Chris Williams 424 .193 .278 .348 75 .155 .291 -4 -1.0 .276
Kyler Fedko 445 .223 .294 .325 74 .103 .294 -7 -1.1 .276
Kyle Schmidt 200 .184 .240 .243 37 .059 .278 -6 -1.2 .219
Willie Joe Garry Jr. 297 .173 .251 .263 45 .090 .301 -2 -1.5 .231

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Carlos Correa Xander Bogaerts Edgardo Alfonzo Ryan Zimmerman
Byron Buxton Jeff Heath Chick Hafey Raul Mondesi
Jorge Polanco Marcus Semien Logan Forsythe Bob Elliott
Jose Miranda Chad Tracy Craig Cacek Rafael Palmeiro
Luis Arraez Whitey Lockman Wade Boggs Billy Goodman
Royce Lewis Brett Lawrie Wil Cordero Buddy Kerr
Max Kepler Nate McLouth Randy Bush Don Hurst
Ryan Jeffers Dan Graham Mason Katz Les Moss
Edouard Julien Joe Orengo Tony Bernazard Cavan Biggio
Gary Sanchez Eric Munson Dave Duncan Luke Montz
Kyle Farmer Jack Wilson Rafael Ramirez Roberto Pena
Yunior Severino Andy Hartung Bill Melton Mark Naehring
Curtis Terry Hal Breeden Steve Patchin Tommie Aaron
Mikey Perez Terry Shumpert Max George Levi Hyams
Nick Gordon R.J. Reynolds Brandon Guyer Xavier Paul
Tyler White Ed Bouchee Hank Thompson Denis Menke
Alex Kirilloff Bob Pate Chris Smith Dick Smith
Michael Helman William Suero Kelvin Chapman Lute Barnes
Elliot Soto Pokey Reese Jason Maxwell Dick Tracewski
Miguel Sanó Chris Carter Marcus Thames Shelley Duncan
Braden Bishop Mike Asche Mark Little Jim Wawruck
Kyle Garlick Wally Post Carmelo Castillo Hank Edwards
Matt Wallner Mike Young Mitch Walding Bobby Brooks
Austin Martin David Eckstein Ryan Freel Chad Meyers
Tim Beckham Jim Pankovits Tyler Houston Joel Youngblood
Trevor Larnach Chris Duffy Matt Rizzotti Chris Shelton
Brooks Lee Juan Franco Vern Followell Ron Oddo
Sandy Leon John Baker Bobby Wilson Joe Pignatano
Anthony Prato Mike Murphy Kyle Johnson Allen Battle
Jair Camargo Don Gile Michael Pericht Lem Pilkinton
Ernie Yake Cesar Galvez Zach Osborne Logan Davis
Roy Morales Jimmy Rohan Derrek Perren Jim Eppard
Andrew Bechtold Lee Mitchell Mike Costanzo Tony Incaviglia
Will Holland Steve Martin Rickey Holifield Tanner English
Mark Contreras Blake Tekotte Clete Thomas Pete Whisenant
Dalton Shuffield Bill Madlock Milt Smith Jorge Orta
Derek Fisher Duane Walker Tom Winsett Faye Throneberry
Gilberto Celestino Chris Magruder F.P. Santangelo Jimmy Busby
Alerick Soularie Rick Wolff Kevin Flora Larry Beardman
Alex Isola Bill Englehart Reed Eastley John-Paul Davis
Billy Hamilton Anthony Iapoce Chris Powell Milt Cuyler
DaShawn Keirsey Jr. Kory DeHaan Aron Weston Bienvenido DeLaRosa
Cole Sturgeon Cory Sullivan Robert Kelly Terry Blocker
Jake Rucker Tyler Goeddel Dionys Cesar Jeff Bertoni
Nash Knight Bob Meacham Juan Gonzalez Nolan Fontana
John Andreoli Ryan Langerhans Jon Nunnally Jed Hansen
Aaron Sabato Mike Rubel Ralph Rickey Pat Dodson
David Bañuelos Jorge Meran Nerio Rodriguez Arden Pabst
Seth Gray John Lyles Chris Shaddy Mickey Micelotta
Wander Javier Jack Jones Matt Guiliano Lee Mitchell
Pat Winkel Al Carmichael Bryce Terveen Sergio Burruel
Chris Williams Ray Crowley Alan Zinter Joe Lansford
Kyler Fedko Joseph Taormina Willie Upshaw Jim McAnany
Kyle Schmidt Eric Sim Tyson Van Winkle Jan Vazquez
Willie Joe Garry Jr. Rudy Martin Jim Rapoport Bobby Buchanon

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Carlos Correa .301 .378 .531 150 7.0 .250 .326 .426 111 4.3
Byron Buxton .283 .348 .626 166 5.0 .229 .298 .480 117 2.9
Jorge Polanco .286 .361 .509 137 4.4 .238 .312 .406 101 1.8
Jose Miranda .312 .369 .494 139 4.5 .257 .313 .397 98 1.4
Luis Arraez .333 .398 .440 135 3.8 .272 .337 .359 97 1.0
Royce Lewis .285 .348 .484 129 3.0 .231 .295 .378 89 1.1
Max Kepler .250 .346 .462 124 3.2 .206 .295 .356 84 0.8
Ryan Jeffers .254 .331 .468 120 2.9 .198 .274 .353 75 1.0
Edouard Julien .244 .364 .414 116 3.0 .193 .313 .316 77 0.6
Gary Sanchez .245 .333 .509 129 3.0 .192 .278 .377 84 0.6
Kyle Farmer .266 .327 .396 100 2.5 .217 .278 .316 67 0.4
Yunior Severino .250 .320 .427 107 2.2 .198 .270 .335 70 0.5
Curtis Terry .270 .343 .453 121 1.9 .215 .289 .361 81 0.0
Mikey Perez .248 .327 .396 100 1.9 .192 .277 .306 65 -0.1
Nick Gordon .288 .332 .466 121 1.8 .229 .277 .365 79 -0.3
Tyler White .254 .361 .418 117 1.7 .202 .307 .321 77 -0.3
Alex Kirilloff .278 .335 .444 116 1.4 .221 .284 .352 79 -0.1
Michael Helman .241 .308 .402 95 1.8 .194 .257 .314 60 -0.5
Elliot Soto .246 .319 .333 83 1.2 .190 .261 .254 49 -0.2
Miguel Sanó .240 .327 .504 126 1.5 .188 .275 .382 85 -0.7
Braden Bishop .259 .323 .401 100 1.2 .206 .266 .310 62 -0.5
Kyle Garlick .266 .322 .526 133 1.0 .208 .270 .404 88 -0.3
Matt Wallner .235 .330 .435 112 1.5 .184 .286 .333 74 -1.0
Austin Martin .255 .362 .339 98 1.1 .204 .313 .272 67 -0.6
Tim Beckham .275 .329 .472 120 0.8 .221 .275 .368 78 -0.3
Trevor Larnach .261 .341 .425 111 1.2 .207 .286 .328 74 -0.6
Brooks Lee .265 .336 .387 102 0.6 .214 .281 .303 65 -0.1
Sandy Leon .231 .317 .330 79 0.7 .172 .256 .247 45 -0.2
Anthony Prato .255 .334 .369 98 1.2 .203 .283 .288 62 -1.0
Jair Camargo .232 .270 .405 85 1.0 .177 .214 .297 41 -0.8
Ernie Yake .262 .302 .323 76 0.6 .198 .244 .239 37 -0.2
Roy Morales .289 .363 .364 105 0.8 .234 .305 .291 70 -0.5
Andrew Bechtold .226 .303 .370 86 1.1 .173 .247 .275 49 -1.1
Will Holland .218 .303 .345 81 0.9 .163 .256 .263 47 -0.8
Mark Contreras .223 .293 .395 91 1.1 .173 .241 .300 53 -1.0
Dalton Shuffield .241 .309 .440 107 0.2 .188 .253 .324 64 -0.3
Derek Fisher .226 .320 .382 96 0.6 .170 .257 .285 55 -0.7
Gilberto Celestino .257 .326 .365 94 0.9 .206 .273 .289 61 -0.9
Alerick Soularie .225 .307 .355 83 0.7 .175 .255 .271 50 -0.8
Alex Isola .255 .328 .407 106 0.8 .200 .272 .311 66 -0.9
Billy Hamilton .221 .280 .305 64 0.4 .166 .221 .226 27 -0.7
DaShawn Keirsey Jr. .233 .289 .346 77 0.8 .181 .240 .272 44 -1.0
Cole Sturgeon .262 .316 .374 91 0.7 .209 .263 .292 56 -1.2
Jake Rucker .238 .313 .353 88 0.9 .187 .263 .272 54 -1.3
Nash Knight .221 .321 .347 86 0.5 .165 .266 .257 47 -1.2
John Andreoli .207 .329 .358 92 0.8 .151 .268 .257 51 -1.3
Aaron Sabato .213 .312 .384 91 0.5 .162 .256 .293 54 -1.5
David Bañuelos .220 .267 .362 72 0.1 .157 .204 .257 28 -1.1
Seth Gray .217 .293 .335 76 0.4 .163 .242 .244 38 -1.9
Wander Javier .208 .262 .355 70 0.2 .158 .213 .262 33 -1.8
Pat Winkel .229 .299 .341 78 -0.5 .172 .238 .252 39 -1.5
Chris Williams .221 .303 .397 93 -0.1 .165 .252 .296 55 -2.1
Kyler Fedko .251 .320 .361 90 -0.1 .198 .269 .286 57 -2.1
Kyle Schmidt .212 .271 .282 54 -0.8 .153 .212 .201 17 -1.7
Willie Joe Garry Jr. .204 .283 .314 67 -0.6 .144 .224 .221 27 -2.2

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Jhoan Duran R 25 4 2 3.23 56 0 61.3 43 22 8 28 99
Cody Stashak R 29 3 2 3.63 27 1 39.7 37 16 5 7 46
Tyler Mahle R 28 8 7 3.78 25 25 133.3 116 56 15 44 137
Sonny Gray R 33 8 6 3.79 25 25 123.3 106 52 14 44 122
Jovani Moran L 26 3 2 3.82 45 0 61.3 46 26 6 35 85
Joe Ryan R 27 12 9 3.91 28 28 149.7 126 65 18 44 151
Bailey Ober R 27 4 3 4.00 20 20 90.0 87 40 14 19 90
Michael Fulmer R 30 5 5 4.03 58 2 60.3 55 27 6 27 64
Michael Feliz R 30 3 2 4.04 41 2 49.0 44 22 6 19 52
Chris Paddack R 27 6 5 4.09 17 17 88.0 83 40 12 17 80
Jhon Romero R 28 2 3 4.10 32 0 41.7 42 19 5 10 38
Matt Canterino R 25 1 1 4.11 20 20 57.0 48 26 7 27 65
Caleb Thielbar L 36 3 2 4.15 53 0 52.0 49 24 8 16 61
Tyler Duffey R 32 4 3 4.17 51 0 54.0 49 25 6 21 51
Louie Varland R 25 8 7 4.19 26 24 129.0 124 60 16 44 119
Danny Coulombe L 33 2 2 4.21 31 1 36.3 35 17 5 15 36
Emilio Pagán R 32 4 4 4.21 54 0 57.7 50 27 10 19 68
Kenta Maeda R 35 5 4 4.25 18 15 82.7 76 39 11 29 81
Trevor Megill R 29 3 3 4.25 42 0 48.7 47 23 6 19 55
Simeon Woods Richardson R 22 5 5 4.26 26 25 107.7 99 51 14 49 108
Ronny Henriquez R 23 4 5 4.28 25 13 101.0 95 48 12 35 95
Hunter McMahon R 25 3 2 4.37 37 1 57.7 58 28 8 16 49
Jorge López R 30 6 6 4.41 44 10 85.7 83 42 10 34 83
Devin Smeltzer L 27 6 6 4.42 28 20 116.0 120 57 17 31 82
Alex Phillips R 28 3 2 4.42 27 0 38.7 38 19 6 15 40
Francis Peguero R 25 2 2 4.45 27 0 30.3 32 15 5 6 23
Austin Davis L 30 2 1 4.47 45 2 52.3 46 26 6 28 58
Brent Headrick L 25 6 7 4.50 22 20 88.0 87 44 13 36 90
Jorge Alcala R 27 4 5 4.50 37 6 70.0 67 35 10 24 66
Cole Sands R 25 5 5 4.52 24 16 85.7 83 43 11 34 82
Osiris German R 24 3 2 4.53 39 1 51.7 49 26 7 20 51
Dylan Bundy R 30 6 8 4.56 24 23 116.3 117 59 17 31 90
Carlos Luna R 26 4 5 4.58 23 13 92.3 96 47 14 27 77
Kody Funderburk L 26 6 6 4.59 26 14 84.3 83 43 10 38 74
Alex Scherff R 25 1 2 4.65 28 0 31.0 28 16 3 17 30
Denny Bentley L 25 4 5 4.65 40 0 50.3 48 26 6 31 53
Griffin Jax R 28 5 7 4.65 41 11 89.0 86 46 14 28 81
Juan Minaya R 32 3 4 4.70 38 1 53.7 51 28 6 27 48
Jordan Balazovic R 24 4 4 4.75 22 20 85.3 87 45 12 37 76
Tyler Viza R 28 3 4 4.75 19 6 47.3 49 25 7 15 41
Ryan Mason R 28 2 2 4.78 27 0 37.7 35 20 4 22 38
Randy Dobnak R 28 4 6 4.79 18 13 73.3 78 39 9 26 51
Dereck Rodríguez R 31 5 7 4.79 22 15 88.3 92 47 13 31 72
Josh Winder R 26 4 5 4.82 19 16 80.3 85 43 13 24 63
Aaron Rozek L 27 5 7 4.88 20 15 75.7 81 41 12 25 58
Austin Schulfer R 27 4 6 4.93 32 11 73.0 73 40 10 34 67
Jordan Brink R 30 2 2 4.93 27 0 34.7 35 19 5 18 33
Evan Sisk L 26 2 4 4.96 43 0 52.7 50 29 7 31 54
Steven Cruz R 24 2 3 4.96 37 0 49.0 44 27 6 32 55
Ben Gross R 26 3 3 4.99 15 10 57.7 62 32 9 26 51
Tyler Beck R 27 2 3 5.06 16 9 58.7 61 33 9 28 53
Joe Smith R 39 1 2 5.06 33 0 26.7 31 15 4 7 18
Aaron Sanchez R 30 5 6 5.07 22 19 97.7 107 55 11 38 68
Brad Peacock R 35 3 5 5.12 34 5 51.0 48 29 8 26 50
Zach Neff L 27 3 4 5.20 27 0 45.0 49 26 8 19 37
Tyler Thornburg R 34 1 1 5.22 26 0 29.3 31 17 5 14 25
Jordan Gore R 28 2 4 5.24 38 0 46.3 45 27 6 28 41
Chris Archer R 34 3 5 5.29 19 19 78.3 78 46 14 37 71
Blayne Enlow R 24 3 4 5.37 21 12 67.0 71 40 11 33 58
Andrew Cabezas R 26 2 4 5.40 27 7 61.7 65 37 11 26 52
Melvi Acosta R 28 2 3 5.55 27 2 48.7 55 30 8 23 34
JC Ramírez R 34 1 2 6.21 15 4 33.3 38 23 6 19 22

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Jhoan Duran 61.3 14.5 4.1 1.2 10.9% 38.4% .299 125 3.14 80 1.1
Cody Stashak 39.7 10.4 1.6 1.1 4.3% 28.6% .311 111 3.08 90 0.4
Tyler Mahle 133.3 9.2 3.0 1.0 7.9% 24.7% .285 107 3.69 93 2.2
Sonny Gray 123.3 8.9 3.2 1.0 8.5% 23.6% .277 107 3.87 94 2.1
Jovani Moran 61.3 12.5 5.1 0.9 13.1% 31.8% .294 106 3.51 94 0.4
Joe Ryan 149.7 9.1 2.6 1.1 7.2% 24.7% .273 104 3.78 97 2.3
Bailey Ober 90.0 9.0 1.9 1.4 5.1% 24.3% .296 101 3.88 99 1.3
Michael Fulmer 60.3 9.5 4.0 0.9 10.3% 24.5% .302 100 3.87 100 0.5
Michael Feliz 49.0 9.6 3.5 1.1 9.1% 25.0% .292 100 3.91 100 0.3
Chris Paddack 88.0 8.2 1.7 1.2 4.7% 22.3% .285 99 3.79 101 1.1
Jhon Romero 41.7 8.2 2.2 1.1 5.7% 21.6% .306 99 3.75 101 0.2
Matt Canterino 57.0 10.3 4.3 1.1 10.8% 26.1% .287 99 3.94 101 0.8
Caleb Thielbar 52.0 10.6 2.8 1.4 7.3% 27.7% .308 97 3.79 103 0.2
Tyler Duffey 54.0 8.5 3.5 1.0 9.1% 22.0% .287 97 4.04 103 0.2
Louie Varland 129.0 8.3 3.1 1.1 8.0% 21.6% .294 97 4.06 103 1.6
Danny Coulombe 36.3 8.9 3.7 1.2 9.5% 22.8% .297 96 4.36 104 0.1
Emilio Pagán 57.7 10.6 3.0 1.6 7.9% 28.3% .284 96 4.09 104 0.2
Kenta Maeda 82.7 8.8 3.2 1.2 8.3% 23.2% .288 95 4.08 105 0.9
Trevor Megill 48.7 10.2 3.5 1.1 8.8% 25.6% .318 95 3.79 105 0.1
Simeon Woods Richardson 107.7 9.0 4.1 1.2 10.4% 22.9% .290 95 4.29 105 1.2
Ronny Henriquez 101.0 8.5 3.1 1.1 8.2% 22.1% .292 95 4.03 106 1.1
Hunter McMahon 57.7 7.6 2.5 1.2 6.6% 20.1% .294 93 4.25 108 0.1
Jorge López 85.7 8.7 3.6 1.1 9.1% 22.2% .303 92 4.17 109 0.6
Devin Smeltzer 116.0 6.4 2.4 1.3 6.3% 16.6% .286 91 4.55 109 1.0
Alex Phillips 38.7 9.3 3.5 1.4 8.9% 23.8% .305 91 4.34 109 -0.1
Francis Peguero 30.3 6.8 1.8 1.5 4.7% 18.0% .290 91 4.57 110 -0.1
Austin Davis 52.3 10.0 4.8 1.0 12.2% 25.3% .294 90 4.20 111 0.1
Brent Headrick 88.0 9.2 3.7 1.3 9.3% 23.3% .306 90 4.29 111 0.8
Jorge Alcala 70.0 8.5 3.1 1.3 8.0% 22.1% .291 90 4.28 111 0.3
Cole Sands 85.7 8.6 3.6 1.2 9.2% 22.1% .299 90 4.31 112 0.6
Osiris German 51.7 8.9 3.5 1.2 8.9% 22.8% .296 89 4.51 112 -0.1
Dylan Bundy 116.3 7.0 2.4 1.3 6.3% 18.3% .286 89 4.43 113 0.9
Carlos Luna 92.3 7.5 2.6 1.4 6.8% 19.4% .298 88 4.40 113 0.7
Kody Funderburk 84.3 7.9 4.1 1.1 10.2% 19.8% .297 88 4.51 113 0.5
Alex Scherff 31.0 8.7 4.9 0.9 12.3% 21.7% .291 87 4.31 115 -0.1
Denny Bentley 50.3 9.5 5.5 1.1 13.3% 22.7% .307 87 4.50 115 -0.2
Griffin Jax 89.0 8.2 2.8 1.4 7.4% 21.4% .286 87 4.46 115 0.4
Juan Minaya 53.7 8.0 4.5 1.0 11.2% 19.8% .292 86 4.72 116 -0.2
Jordan Balazovic 85.3 8.0 3.9 1.3 9.8% 20.2% .301 85 4.68 117 0.5
Tyler Viza 47.3 7.8 2.9 1.3 7.4% 20.1% .300 85 4.55 117 0.2
Ryan Mason 37.7 9.1 5.3 1.0 13.0% 22.5% .301 85 4.59 118 -0.2
Randy Dobnak 73.3 6.3 3.2 1.1 8.1% 15.9% .297 85 4.59 118 0.4
Dereck Rodríguez 88.3 7.3 3.2 1.3 8.1% 18.8% .298 85 4.59 118 0.4
Josh Winder 80.3 7.1 2.7 1.5 6.9% 18.2% .295 84 4.70 119 0.4
Aaron Rozek 75.7 6.9 3.0 1.4 7.6% 17.6% .297 83 4.79 121 0.3
Austin Schulfer 73.0 8.3 4.2 1.2 10.4% 20.4% .300 82 4.78 122 0.1
Jordan Brink 34.7 8.6 4.7 1.3 11.4% 20.9% .303 82 4.86 122 -0.3
Evan Sisk 52.7 9.2 5.3 1.2 13.0% 22.6% .301 82 4.88 122 -0.4
Steven Cruz 49.0 10.1 5.9 1.1 14.1% 24.2% .299 82 4.70 123 -0.4
Ben Gross 57.7 8.0 4.1 1.4 10.0% 19.6% .310 81 4.87 123 0.2
Tyler Beck 58.7 8.1 4.3 1.4 10.4% 19.8% .304 80 4.87 125 0.1
Joe Smith 26.7 6.1 2.4 1.4 6.0% 15.4% .310 80 4.65 125 -0.2
Aaron Sanchez 97.7 6.3 3.5 1.0 8.8% 15.7% .307 80 4.67 125 0.2
Brad Peacock 51.0 8.8 4.6 1.4 11.6% 22.3% .288 79 5.00 126 -0.2
Zach Neff 45.0 7.4 3.8 1.6 9.5% 18.4% .301 78 5.22 129 -0.5
Tyler Thornburg 29.3 7.7 4.3 1.5 10.5% 18.8% .299 78 5.30 129 -0.3
Jordan Gore 46.3 8.0 5.4 1.2 13.0% 19.1% .291 77 5.20 130 -0.5
Chris Archer 78.3 8.2 4.3 1.6 10.7% 20.5% .288 77 5.20 131 0.0
Blayne Enlow 67.0 7.8 4.4 1.5 10.8% 19.0% .303 75 5.21 133 -0.1
Andrew Cabezas 61.7 7.6 3.8 1.6 9.5% 19.0% .297 75 5.39 133 -0.3
Melvi Acosta 48.7 6.3 4.3 1.5 10.3% 15.2% .303 73 5.43 137 -0.5
JC Ramírez 33.3 5.9 5.1 1.6 12.1% 14.0% .299 65 6.24 153 -0.5

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Jhoan Duran Jonathan Broxton Kelvin Herrera Tom Niedenfuer 1.9 0.2 2.05 5.07
Cody Stashak Oscar Zamora Bruce Walton Ernie Johnson 0.8 -0.1 2.52 4.93
Tyler Mahle Don Wilson Andy Benes Matt Garza 3.2 1.2 3.25 4.41
Sonny Gray Joe Dobson Stan Coveleski Bucky Walters 2.9 1.2 3.21 4.47
Jovani Moran Neal Cotts Don Carman Dennys Reyes 1.0 -0.4 2.99 4.98
Joe Ryan Dustin Hermanson Matt Cain Earthman Bill Lee 3.4 1.1 3.34 4.65
Bailey Ober Don Grate Nick Andromidas Joe Bielemeier 2.1 0.6 3.24 4.79
Michael Fulmer David Weathers Mitchell Boggs Antonio Alfonseca 1.1 -0.3 3.26 5.14
Michael Feliz Scott Bankhead Randy St. Claire Jim Mann 0.8 -0.3 3.35 4.95
Chris Paddack Jose Urquidy Frank Castillo Kyle McPherson 1.9 0.5 3.36 4.80
Jhon Romero Pete Della Ratta Tim Gower Steve Lankard 0.6 -0.2 3.36 5.12
Matt Canterino Pete Taylor Gordon Rhodes Gary Neibauer 1.4 0.3 3.41 4.82
Caleb Thielbar Bobby Shantz Rudy May Diomedes Olivo 0.9 -0.6 2.83 6.20
Tyler Duffey Tom Gorman Adam Warren Russ Christopher 0.8 -0.5 3.33 5.35
Louie Varland Manny Aybar Mike Shawaryn Sidney Ponson 2.6 0.5 3.64 4.77
Danny Coulombe Eric Gunderson Larry Casian Gary Lucas 0.5 -0.3 3.39 5.32
Emilio Pagán Jeff Reardon Bob Johnson Kirby Yates 0.9 -0.7 3.31 5.40
Kenta Maeda Vicente Padilla Burt Hooton Vic Sorrell 1.5 0.3 3.65 4.88
Trevor Megill Tyler Jones Blake McFarland Matt Kinzer 0.6 -0.5 3.43 5.42
Simeon Woods Richardson Bruce Kison Jhoulys Chacin Tony Armas 2.0 0.2 3.72 4.95
Ronny Henriquez Paxton Crawford Amaury Telemaco 텔레마코 Clay Carroll 1.9 0.3 3.69 5.00
Hunter McMahon Drew Carlton Vincent Trakan Ray Brown 0.7 -0.4 3.54 5.29
Jorge López Buck Farmer Jeff Robinson Dave Swartzbaugh 1.3 -0.2 3.81 5.22
Devin Smeltzer Allan Anderson Kirk Rueter Chuck Stobbs 1.7 0.2 3.96 5.03
Alex Phillips Brandon Agamennone Phil Hennigan Bruce Thompson 0.3 -0.5 3.63 5.32
Francis Peguero Julio Aquino Micah Mangrum Dan Quisenberry 0.2 -0.3 3.74 5.28
Austin Davis Wil Ledezma Charlie Manning Josh Smith 0.6 -0.6 3.69 5.69
Brent Headrick Lewis Thorpe Russ Swan Jung Bong 1.5 0.0 3.88 5.28
Jorge Alcala Ian Harvey Jesse Chavez Derek Gordon 0.8 -0.4 3.88 5.36
Cole Sands Nick Kingham Mike Nannini Tim Sommer 1.2 -0.1 3.97 5.31
Osiris German Lino Rivera Brian Drahman Chris Mabeus 0.4 -0.5 3.82 5.17
Dylan Bundy Jim Colborn Chad Ogea Jeremy Hellickson 1.6 0.1 4.08 5.09
Carlos Luna Marvin Dutt Mark Guerra Chih-Wei Hu 1.4 -0.1 3.98 5.32
Kody Funderburk Mark Freed Kevin Brown Robert Box 1.1 -0.2 4.07 5.25
Alex Scherff Joe Schaffernoth Jim Winn Brett Wise 0.1 -0.3 4.03 5.20
Denny Bentley Dan Jennings George Riley Jeff Schneider 0.3 -0.7 3.94 5.53
Griffin Jax Sergio Valdez Matt Wisler Amaury Telemaco 1.1 -0.4 4.06 5.42
Juan Minaya Mike Buddie George Culver Mike Walker 0.3 -0.7 4.05 5.58
Jordan Balazovic Tanner Roark Bob Giggie Mark Johnson 1.0 -0.2 4.29 5.44
Tyler Viza Chris Allen Adrian Martin Steve Lankard 0.6 -0.3 4.02 5.54
Ryan Mason Michael Neu Sandy Wihtol Joe Kerrigan 0.2 -0.6 4.07 5.76
Randy Dobnak Gary Wheelock Doug Welenc Josh Kauten 0.8 -0.1 4.32 5.43
Dereck Rodríguez Early Wynn Fred Talbot Joe Bowman 1.1 -0.2 4.22 5.39
Josh Winder Steve Cowie Erik Swanson Raul Alcantara 0.9 -0.2 4.26 5.41
Aaron Rozek Joe Rogers Carlos Pulido Bryan Braswell 0.8 -0.4 4.39 5.69
Austin Schulfer Josh Karp Mike Lee Adam Bass 0.6 -0.6 4.37 5.67
Jordan Brink Rich Simon Evan Englebrook Ryan Kussmaul 0.1 -0.6 4.16 5.82
Evan Sisk Nick Maronde Eury De La Rosa Gregg Langbehn 0.1 -0.9 4.23 5.74
Steven Cruz Andres Berumen Ricky Trlicek Travis Chambers 0.1 -0.9 4.23 5.85
Ben Gross Cecil Pettiford Jordan Hotchkiss Chris Flinn 0.6 -0.3 4.39 5.72
Tyler Beck Bob Jesperson Cristian Beltre Jerrod Riggan 0.6 -0.4 4.44 5.77
Joe Smith Bud Byerly Clint Brown Jim Konstanty 0.0 -0.5 4.38 6.51
Aaron Sanchez Bo Schultz Eric Hacker 해커 Doug Banning 0.7 -0.5 4.60 5.68
Brad Peacock Tom Hurd Stan Williams Brian Boehringer 0.4 -0.8 4.18 6.39
Zach Neff James Houser Eugene Mendes Brennan Bernardino -0.1 -0.9 4.51 5.99
Tyler Thornburg Stew Cliburn Fred Beene Will Cunnane -0.1 -0.6 4.43 6.36
Jordan Gore David Gourieux Jim Cosman Mike Wegener 0.0 -1.0 4.52 6.14
Chris Archer Bump Hadley Dwight Gooden Cal Eldred 0.5 -0.8 4.69 6.24
Blayne Enlow John Bilello Paul Saccavino Steve Cline 0.4 -0.8 4.79 6.11
Andrew Cabezas Bryan Paukovits Bobby Moore Caleb Clay 클레이 0.2 -0.7 4.75 6.03
Melvi Acosta Trevor Sansom Chris Rivera Hector Ramirez -0.1 -1.0 4.87 6.44
JC Ramírez Dave Stenhouse David Dominguez Wes Wilkerson -0.2 -0.8 5.47 7.15

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

24 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
TwinPeaks
1 month ago

I’m not convinced Arraez is limited to 1b. He has better defensive #’s at 2B than Polanco (according to Baseball Savant) over the last two years and he’s almost 4 years younger. Even ZIPS projects him better defensively (though I don’t know if that is the case for 2b.)

But if the Twins prefer Polanco for whatever reason, then trade Arraez. He’s not really an outstanding asset at 1B/DH.

My guess is actually that the Twins may hope to sign Correa or Swanson and then play Lewis at 2b in the long-term.

Last edited 1 month ago by TwinPeaks
cowdisciplemember
1 month ago
Reply to  TwinPeaks

If he is limited to 1B, I’m disappointed he didn’t get the Doug Mientkiewicz comp.

burts_beads
1 month ago
Reply to  TwinPeaks

I’ve never watched him play so hearing he’s 1B only is confusing to me based on the numbers. Throw out his rookie season and his 2B numbers don’t look anything like a guy that literally can’t play there.