2023 ZiPS Projections: Chicago Cubs

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Chicago Cubs.

Batters

When you look at Chicago’s offense, you see a lot of the parts of a 90-win team, but not all of the parts. It’s sort of like a birthday cake that’s been frosted, but lacks any decorations. It’s edible, but it isn’t really exciting quite yet. First base and third base are decidedly meh-minus positions, and I feel for poor Matt Mervis, since he keeps projecting for fewer plate appearances than a much worse-projected starter. (Incidentally, I’m only about 80% sure that Matt Mervis isn’t actually Matt Murton with a dye job and some cosmetic surgery trying to get some more service time in.) I’d still like to see the Cubs add at least one 1B/DH option before the season starts, someone like Michael Conforto. Unfortunately, the options there are dwindling.

Don’t get too alarmed by the Ian Desmond comp for Dansby Swanson. Individual comps are 99.9% fun and 0.1% meaningful compared to the large cohort of similar players, and in any case, Desmond aged even worse than the projections thought and Swanson gets a lot of his value from defense, which Desmond didn’t outside of the ability to stand at shortstop for awhile. I feel bad for Nick Madrigal, who had a second season ruined by an injury, this time to his groin, but a team trying to become more competitive can’t just hang around and wait to see if he can make his retro-1960s game actually work. I hope he eventually gets to a lousy team that has the flexibility to look at him. It’s hard to fault the Cubs for not giving him a lot of rope; he wasn’t a guy who came up through the organization and the player traded for him and Codi Heuer, Craig Kimbrel, isn’t someone the Cubs grumble about missing.

The funny thing about Cody Bellinger is that he’s probably a bit underrated overall right now. He had an abysmal 2021 and while one can hardly characterize his ’22 as a triumphant return to his prior glory, he was an acceptable starter in center field. Since he was a legitimate MVP-type just a few years ago, that’s always going to feel bad. Still, he’s 27, not 37, so the projection reflects that there’s at least some chance he has that upside still lurking in his bat somewhere.

Pitchers

ZiPS doesn’t see huge upside for literally anyone in the rotation, but it does see the top three of Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, and Jameson Taillon as a very stable group. I’m certainly not putting the over/under for Taillon’s playing time anywhere near what’s on the depth chart, however. Sadly, ZiPS does not see Kyle Hendricks as more than a back-of-the-rotation innings-eater at this point in his career, but at least that’s the role he’s expected to fill now, rather than being the team’s de facto ace. Wade Miley is also a cut above the usual fourth/fifth starter [And is a free agent, duh. I had Drew Smyly on the brain. — DS], and ZiPS is a fan of some of the emergency options, like prospect Ben Brown (who I believe will end up in the ZiPS Top 100 prospects this year, though I’m not positive). ZiPS isn’t in on Hayden Wesneski yet, and I think I like him better than the projection does.

The bullpen looks to be a rather mediocre group, with few outright disasters in the projections, but also no real top-tier out-makers for high-leverage innings. Mark Leiter Jr. comes closest; if projected as a full-time reliever, he comes out forecast for a 3.07 ERA. ZiPS joins Steamer in its fascination with hard-throwing reliever Jeremiah Estrada.

In the AL East or NL West, this might be a team fighting for fourth place. But in the NL Central, the Cubs look a team that’s somewhere around .500, and the side of that record they finish on may come down to what happens on the injury front. The Cardinals and Brewers are still better, but it’s close enough that if the right cards flip over, the Cubs could make things interesting. Right now, I think they’re still one star away from forcing the division into a three-way dance.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Dansby Swanson R 29 SS 644 582 88 151 30 2 23 83 52 157 12 4
Nico Hoerner R 26 SS 469 432 52 118 21 3 7 55 29 57 14 3
Ian Happ B 28 LF 585 516 69 126 28 2 21 68 61 146 7 3
Seiya Suzuki R 28 RF 466 408 63 109 23 2 21 50 51 113 8 5
Cody Bellinger L 27 CF 525 466 76 107 22 3 18 65 53 123 13 3
Rafael Ortega L 32 CF 412 365 49 92 19 2 11 42 42 87 11 6
Patrick Wisdom R 31 3B 475 421 62 90 19 0 26 63 46 167 6 2
Miles Mastrobuoni L 27 2B 528 481 64 128 19 5 8 53 46 107 11 5
Alexander Canario R 23 CF 517 472 61 104 21 2 23 70 38 172 11 3
Matt Mervis L 25 1B 543 495 68 125 30 2 21 82 36 122 1 1
Andrelton Simmons R 33 2B 350 322 34 79 11 0 2 28 23 50 6 1
Franmil Reyes R 27 RF 505 459 56 113 18 2 25 68 39 153 2 1
Christopher Morel R 24 CF 516 467 68 108 20 5 19 62 40 160 10 6
Nick Madrigal R 26 2B 347 319 40 87 13 3 1 27 21 29 6 3
Pete Crow-Armstrong L 21 CF 478 442 71 108 16 6 12 64 26 127 15 9
Ben DeLuzio R 28 CF 398 361 51 85 15 6 5 46 27 106 15 6
Zach McKinstry L 28 SS 409 369 53 93 17 5 10 47 34 92 5 3
Yan Gomes R 35 C 302 280 30 68 12 1 9 34 16 59 1 1
Kevin Alcantara R 20 CF 472 431 62 98 14 5 13 54 34 148 6 2
Esteban Quiroz L 31 2B 282 240 35 54 14 0 7 36 34 69 2 1
Levi Jordan R 27 3B 368 337 40 79 14 1 7 40 23 82 4 2
Robel Garcia 가르시아 B 30 3B 303 270 32 57 10 1 12 37 29 110 1 1
Kevin Made R 20 SS 390 359 42 81 17 1 7 39 24 98 1 1
Jake Slaughter R 26 3B 439 398 49 92 15 2 10 61 26 125 12 5
Chase Strumpf R 25 2B 436 377 47 72 18 1 10 58 45 162 1 1
Brennen Davis R 23 LF 424 378 50 81 20 0 11 66 33 135 4 3
Yonathan Perlaza B 24 RF 497 451 54 105 25 2 14 57 41 139 6 3
Frank Schwindel R 31 1B 396 370 46 95 19 0 14 52 21 76 0 0
David Bote R 30 2B 333 297 33 66 13 1 8 36 26 92 3 1
Luis Vazquez R 23 SS 415 386 39 89 15 3 5 38 20 108 5 4
P.J. Higgins R 30 1B 328 290 31 69 13 1 6 37 30 79 1 1
Michael Hermosillo R 28 CF 240 207 31 43 8 2 6 32 20 79 5 2
Nelson Velázquez R 24 CF 440 404 49 90 17 3 16 56 32 156 10 3
BJ Murray Jr. B 23 1B 370 327 42 74 14 1 6 40 38 94 4 2
Donnie Dewees L 29 RF 270 246 32 60 10 3 6 30 19 48 5 2
Carlos Sepulveda L 26 2B 335 300 29 66 9 1 1 25 30 70 3 3
Andy Weber L 25 SS 358 331 38 73 16 2 2 35 21 107 2 1
Darius Hill L 25 LF 497 465 55 120 21 2 6 48 25 82 3 3
Tyler Payne R 30 C 251 235 21 52 12 1 3 23 11 69 0 1
Bryce Ball L 24 1B 506 451 51 98 23 2 10 48 50 143 0 1
Miguel Amaya R 24 DH 268 234 26 49 12 0 5 33 26 72 1 1
Jordan Nwogu R 24 CF 373 338 42 74 12 3 10 47 26 118 8 4
Alfonso Rivas L 26 1B 429 379 40 88 15 2 5 43 41 117 4 1
Nelson Maldonado R 26 DH 373 348 40 84 19 1 7 42 20 87 3 1
Zach Davis B 29 CF 247 222 33 48 6 1 0 22 18 71 18 3
Greg Deichmann L 28 CF 369 333 35 68 12 2 7 35 31 125 7 4
Bryce Windham L 26 C 280 248 32 57 10 1 2 22 28 48 1 1
Ed Howard R 21 SS 239 225 20 47 5 2 2 20 11 77 3 1
Luis Verdugo R 22 3B 400 369 37 81 18 1 4 35 26 94 2 2
Christian Donahue L 28 2B 202 185 16 35 6 1 1 14 13 64 3 2
Trent Giambrone R 29 2B 343 312 32 61 12 1 5 30 27 103 7 3
Bradlee Beesley R 25 LF 215 201 20 41 10 1 4 24 11 69 6 2
Yeison Santana R 22 2B 310 279 35 61 7 1 1 24 25 77 8 7
Jackson Frazier R 28 LF 353 313 36 68 16 1 8 36 33 112 4 1
Jake Washer R 27 DH 232 219 23 44 8 0 7 25 11 88 1 1
Fabian Pertuz R 22 SS 442 418 45 86 16 2 6 44 16 128 6 2
Cole Roederer L 23 LF 293 266 27 56 12 1 6 30 20 92 4 3
D.J. Artis L 26 CF 257 226 32 45 8 1 3 28 24 81 9 3
Yohendrick Pinango L 21 LF 509 485 56 116 20 2 8 47 22 106 7 1
Pablo Aliendo R 22 C 361 331 34 70 12 2 5 43 18 102 1 1
Scott McKeon R 25 2B 228 207 24 36 6 1 1 20 13 90 3 1
Owen Caissie L 20 RF 414 377 44 75 13 1 8 45 34 144 5 4

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Dansby Swanson 644 .259 .323 .436 106 .177 .318 9 4.5 .327
Nico Hoerner 469 .273 .326 .384 94 .111 .302 8 2.8 .309
Ian Happ 585 .244 .329 .428 105 .184 .301 4 2.3 .328
Seiya Suzuki 466 .267 .352 .488 127 .221 .321 -3 2.3 .358
Cody Bellinger 525 .230 .309 .406 94 .176 .274 4 2.1 .307
Rafael Ortega 412 .252 .331 .405 101 .153 .303 3 2.0 .321
Patrick Wisdom 475 .214 .300 .444 100 .230 .281 -2 1.8 .320
Miles Mastrobuoni 528 .266 .330 .376 93 .110 .328 -2 1.5 .310
Alexander Canario 517 .220 .281 .419 88 .199 .292 0 1.4 .301
Matt Mervis 543 .253 .311 .448 105 .196 .295 1 1.4 .325
Andrelton Simmons 350 .245 .300 .298 65 .053 .285 12 1.3 .269
Franmil Reyes 505 .246 .305 .458 105 .211 .313 -2 1.3 .325
Christopher Morel 516 .231 .296 .418 93 .186 .309 -3 1.2 .308
Nick Madrigal 347 .273 .327 .342 84 .069 .298 4 1.2 .297
Pete Crow-Armstrong 478 .244 .297 .389 86 .145 .317 1 1.1 .297
Ben DeLuzio 398 .235 .302 .352 79 .116 .320 4 1.1 .289
Zach McKinstry 409 .252 .319 .407 97 .154 .311 -7 1.0 .314
Yan Gomes 302 .243 .291 .389 84 .146 .278 2 1.0 .293
Kevin Alcantara 472 .227 .288 .374 80 .146 .315 3 1.0 .287
Esteban Quiroz 282 .225 .335 .371 93 .146 .287 -1 0.9 .313
Levi Jordan 368 .234 .292 .344 74 .110 .290 5 0.8 .280
Robel Garcia 303 .211 .290 .389 84 .178 .304 1 0.6 .295
Kevin Made 390 .226 .280 .337 68 .111 .291 2 0.5 .272
Jake Slaughter 439 .231 .296 .354 77 .123 .312 0 0.5 .287
Chase Strumpf 436 .191 .296 .324 70 .133 .302 2 0.5 .279
Brennen Davis 424 .214 .297 .354 78 .140 .302 6 0.5 .289
Yonathan Perlaza 497 .233 .300 .390 87 .157 .305 1 0.5 .299
Frank Schwindel 396 .257 .298 .422 94 .165 .289 0 0.4 .308
David Bote 333 .222 .297 .354 78 .131 .294 -1 0.4 .286
Luis Vazquez 415 .231 .274 .324 63 .093 .308 4 0.3 .263
P.J. Higgins 328 .238 .313 .352 82 .114 .307 2 0.1 .294
Michael Hermosillo 240 .208 .305 .353 80 .145 .303 -4 0.1 .293
Nelson Velázquez 440 .223 .284 .399 84 .176 .319 -9 0.0 .294
BJ Murray Jr. 370 .226 .314 .330 77 .104 .300 1 -0.1 .289
Donnie Dewees 270 .244 .305 .382 87 .138 .281 -4 -0.2 .300
Carlos Sepulveda 335 .220 .293 .267 55 .047 .284 3 -0.2 .256
Andy Weber 358 .221 .275 .299 57 .079 .320 1 -0.2 .254
Darius Hill 497 .258 .297 .351 77 .092 .302 2 -0.2 .283
Tyler Payne 251 .221 .260 .319 58 .098 .301 -1 -0.2 .253
Bryce Ball 506 .217 .296 .344 75 .126 .295 3 -0.3 .283
Miguel Amaya 268 .209 .302 .325 72 .115 .280 0 -0.3 .282
Jordan Nwogu 373 .219 .287 .361 76 .142 .305 -7 -0.3 .284
Alfonso Rivas 429 .232 .315 .322 76 .090 .323 -1 -0.4 .286
Nelson Maldonado 373 .241 .285 .362 76 .121 .303 0 -0.4 .282
Zach Davis 247 .216 .286 .252 50 .036 .318 -2 -0.4 .247
Greg Deichmann 369 .204 .274 .315 61 .111 .303 -1 -0.4 .262
Bryce Windham 280 .230 .309 .302 69 .073 .278 -8 -0.4 .277
Ed Howard 239 .209 .251 .276 44 .067 .308 0 -0.5 .234
Luis Verdugo 400 .220 .273 .306 59 .087 .284 -1 -0.6 .257
Christian Donahue 202 .189 .245 .249 36 .059 .283 1 -0.7 .223
Trent Giambrone 343 .196 .265 .288 52 .093 .275 -1 -0.7 .247
Bradlee Beesley 215 .204 .256 .323 57 .119 .289 -2 -0.8 .255
Yeison Santana 310 .219 .290 .262 53 .043 .299 -2 -0.8 .253
Jackson Frazier 353 .217 .300 .351 78 .134 .311 -8 -0.8 .289
Jake Washer 232 .201 .246 .333 57 .132 .298 0 -0.8 .253
Fabian Pertuz 442 .206 .245 .297 48 .091 .282 -1 -1.0 .238
Cole Roederer 293 .211 .271 .331 64 .120 .298 -3 -1.0 .263
D.J. Artis 257 .199 .292 .283 59 .084 .296 -9 -1.0 .263
Yohendrick Pinango 509 .239 .273 .338 66 .099 .291 -1 -1.0 .267
Pablo Aliendo 361 .211 .270 .305 57 .094 .290 -10 -1.1 .256
Scott McKeon 228 .174 .239 .227 29 .053 .302 0 -1.1 .214
Owen Caissie 414 .199 .271 .302 57 .103 .298 -3 -1.5 .257

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Dansby Swanson Ian Desmond Pinky Higgins Travis Jackson
Nico Hoerner Wallace Johnson Bob Bailor Erick Aybar
Ian Happ Jim Russell Chili Davis Gary Matthews
Seiya Suzuki Harrison Bader Benny Agbayani Pete Reiser
Cody Bellinger Gary Geiger Ruppert Jones Jim Nettles
Rafael Ortega Stan Javier Pat Kelly Dom DiMaggio
Patrick Wisdom Mike Hessman Ryan Schimpf Orlando McFarlane
Miles Mastrobuoni Wally Backman Brock Holt Jason Bartlett
Alexander Canario Garry Maddox Chad Hermansen Don Demeter
Matt Mervis Clint Robinson Jim Spencer Hank Small
Andrelton Simmons Tony Medrano J C Hartman Yordan Manduley
Franmil Reyes Ron Jackson Chris Davis Karim Garcia 가르시아
Christopher Morel Alonzo Powell Michael Coleman Sammy Sosa
Nick Madrigal Ronald Torreyes Brandon Douglas Price Kendall
Pete Crow-Armstrong Bill Flowers Rusty Tillman Tom Shopay
Ben DeLuzio McKay Christensen Dairon Blanco Cecil Espy
Zach McKinstry Chuck Goggin Tony Graffanino U.L. Washington
Yan Gomes Michael Barrett Jerry McNertney Tom Pagnozzi
Kevin Alcantara James Davis Al Chambers Tommy Howser
Esteban Quiroz Kelly Heath Deibinson Romero 로메로 Daniel Descalso
Levi Jordan Brad Wellman Luis Martinez Jose Valdivielso
Robel Garcia Fran Mullins Pat Keedy Josh Fields
Kevin Made Jack Heidemann Paul Kelly Jorge Velandia
Jake Slaughter Tom Brookens Damian Rolls Jim Haley
Chase Strumpf Joe Biasucci Bruce Caldwell Reese Havens
Brennen Davis Troy Neel 니일 Brett Magnusson Garry Smith
Yonathan Perlaza Danny Napoleon Dave Edwards Travis Snider
Frank Schwindel Jorge Cantu 칸투 Dick Kryhoski Kevin Grijak
David Bote Bill Scripture Ed Lucas Dick Green
Luis Vazquez Joe DeMaestri Tim Olson Angel Salazar
P.J. Higgins Tommy Mendonca Mike Mitchell Travis Snider
Michael Hermosillo Ken Williams Peter Bourjos Chris Powell
Nelson Velázquez Braulio Castillo Buddy Bradford Ed Moxey
BJ Murray Jr. Ole Sheldon Dominic D’Anna John-Ford Griffin
Donnie Dewees Dax Jones Max Venable Doug Dascenzo
Carlos Sepulveda Zach Gentile Blake Blasi Ken Dowell
Andy Weber Will Kengor Chris Paul Alex Yarbrough
Darius Hill Dana Williams Bruce Barmes Jeff Schulz
Tyler Payne Mike Mahoney Brett Hayes Anderson De La Rosa
Bryce Ball Danny Hayes Matt Rizzotti Lars Anderson
Miguel Amaya Brett Nicholas Bill Peavey Chris Maloney
Jordan Nwogu Bill Brooks John Ramistella Ike Blessitt
Alfonso Rivas Talmadge Nunnari Barry Poris Glenn Reeves
Nelson Maldonado Dave Engle Jordan Foster Broderick Perkins
Zach Davis Curtis Goodwin Scarborough Green Mike Piercy
Greg Deichmann Theodore Johnson Kevin Koslofski Sebastien Boucher
Bryce Windham Jeff Reed Rick Dempsey Jim Puzey
Ed Howard Mike Boughton Jason Smith Derrick Gutierrez
Luis Verdugo John Johnson Colin Dixon Ed Jurak
Christian Donahue Larry Burright David Keesee Skyler Stromsmoe
Trent Giambrone Ryan Klosterman Buck Darrow Chick Fewster
Bradlee Beesley Tom Johnson Colin Roberson Sandy Santos
Yeison Santana Brock Hebert Chad Fonville Doug Brady 브래디
Jackson Frazier Greg Schubert Justin Howard Mark Corey
Jake Washer Jason Crosland Pat O’Sullivan Steve McQuail
Fabian Pertuz Luis Suarez Randy Brown Hector Gomez
Cole Roederer Nick Ciolli Salvatore Aprea Brad Bierley
D.J. Artis Chris Vlasis Marcos Derkes Joe Bonadonna
Yohendrick Pinango Danry Vasquez Angel Mangual Kevin Aitcheson
Pablo Aliendo Don Bryant Tim Hewes Kurt Brown
Scott McKeon Jorge Mejia David Peterson Tim Rigsby
Owen Caissie Andre Newhouse Lou Novinski Larry Spinner

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Dansby Swanson .287 .349 .490 125 6.2 .234 .296 .388 88 3.1
Nico Hoerner .301 .352 .424 111 3.9 .244 .300 .342 76 1.7
Ian Happ .270 .351 .483 124 3.7 .222 .305 .381 90 1.2
Seiya Suzuki .297 .378 .554 148 3.6 .243 .326 .431 105 1.1
Cody Bellinger .253 .334 .456 113 3.4 .205 .281 .358 75 1.0
Rafael Ortega .279 .357 .454 119 2.9 .224 .304 .354 81 0.9
Patrick Wisdom .241 .322 .509 121 2.9 .191 .276 .383 81 0.5
Miles Mastrobuoni .293 .356 .413 111 2.7 .238 .301 .330 74 0.3
Alexander Canario .249 .307 .481 112 2.9 .194 .255 .370 69 0.1
Matt Mervis .278 .332 .500 123 2.7 .229 .285 .401 88 0.2
Andrelton Simmons .274 .331 .333 82 2.1 .214 .268 .267 48 0.5
Franmil Reyes .274 .330 .518 125 2.6 .219 .275 .401 82 -0.2
Christopher Morel .260 .327 .471 113 2.5 .204 .269 .371 74 -0.1
Nick Madrigal .302 .355 .386 103 2.0 .243 .297 .308 67 0.3
Pete Crow-Armstrong .271 .323 .440 106 2.3 .219 .272 .343 69 0.0
Ben DeLuzio .263 .324 .398 94 1.9 .211 .272 .299 58 0.1
Zach McKinstry .284 .349 .454 117 2.1 .227 .292 .356 78 0.0
Yan Gomes .272 .320 .442 103 1.8 .212 .266 .335 63 0.2
Kevin Alcantara .254 .316 .418 97 2.1 .201 .263 .322 60 -0.2
Esteban Quiroz .252 .362 .424 112 1.6 .199 .306 .326 75 0.3
Levi Jordan .263 .320 .392 92 1.6 .209 .268 .308 56 0.0
Robel Garcia .237 .316 .443 104 1.4 .186 .267 .344 66 -0.1
Kevin Made .256 .308 .391 91 1.7 .200 .255 .292 51 -0.3
Jake Slaughter .257 .323 .406 98 1.7 .205 .268 .311 60 -0.5
Chase Strumpf .217 .319 .379 88 1.5 .162 .269 .274 48 -0.7
Brennen Davis .242 .326 .409 98 1.5 .190 .273 .305 58 -0.6
Yonathan Perlaza .261 .327 .437 105 1.6 .207 .272 .339 68 -0.7
Frank Schwindel .291 .330 .478 118 1.6 .227 .270 .366 74 -0.6
David Bote .252 .324 .402 94 1.0 .196 .272 .311 59 -0.4
Luis Vazquez .256 .301 .367 81 1.3 .204 .248 .291 47 -0.6
P.J. Higgins .266 .339 .393 98 0.8 .213 .287 .311 63 -0.7
Michael Hermosillo .237 .334 .403 101 0.6 .184 .279 .308 61 -0.5
Nelson Velázquez .250 .314 .454 106 1.2 .195 .259 .351 64 -1.2
BJ Murray Jr. .251 .340 .377 98 0.9 .200 .286 .287 60 -0.9
Donnie Dewees .272 .334 .437 108 0.6 .218 .281 .326 68 -0.8
Carlos Sepulveda .252 .327 .308 76 0.7 .190 .266 .230 39 -0.9
Andy Weber .246 .303 .338 74 0.6 .196 .250 .264 42 -0.9
Darius Hill .287 .323 .389 94 0.9 .226 .266 .308 57 -1.5
Tyler Payne .259 .296 .369 81 0.5 .194 .232 .277 40 -0.8
Bryce Ball .250 .325 .386 93 0.9 .193 .272 .300 58 -1.5
Miguel Amaya .243 .329 .385 95 0.4 .182 .273 .278 54 -0.9
Jordan Nwogu .243 .316 .405 93 0.5 .188 .262 .320 58 -1.2
Alfonso Rivas .256 .343 .363 92 0.6 .201 .284 .276 56 -1.4
Nelson Maldonado .267 .311 .407 92 0.4 .212 .253 .319 55 -1.4
Zach Davis .243 .314 .283 65 0.1 .190 .259 .221 34 -0.9
Greg Deichmann .232 .305 .367 81 0.5 .178 .248 .281 45 -1.2
Bryce Windham .267 .341 .348 90 0.3 .199 .278 .263 52 -1.1
Ed Howard .242 .282 .332 67 0.2 .186 .224 .241 30 -1.0
Luis Verdugo .246 .300 .346 73 0.2 .195 .249 .269 42 -1.5
Christian Donahue .219 .274 .282 54 -0.2 .164 .221 .213 20 -1.1
Trent Giambrone .221 .293 .337 69 0.1 .168 .238 .246 34 -1.5
Bradlee Beesley .233 .286 .375 79 -0.2 .174 .223 .282 38 -1.3
Yeison Santana .248 .318 .295 71 -0.1 .192 .264 .227 38 -1.4
Jackson Frazier .248 .332 .405 99 0.1 .190 .271 .308 60 -1.7
Jake Washer .229 .270 .387 76 -0.3 .177 .217 .285 38 -1.4
Fabian Pertuz .232 .272 .341 66 0.1 .181 .223 .260 32 -1.8
Cole Roederer .245 .304 .371 83 -0.2 .187 .247 .288 48 -1.6
D.J. Artis .227 .321 .329 78 -0.4 .169 .263 .241 40 -1.6
Yohendrick Pinango .266 .300 .377 83 0.1 .212 .247 .293 51 -2.0
Pablo Aliendo .243 .300 .367 81 0.0 .184 .244 .267 41 -1.9
Scott McKeon .199 .267 .265 46 -0.6 .146 .211 .194 13 -1.5
Owen Caissie .228 .301 .350 77 -0.5 .173 .245 .261 40 -2.4

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Marcus Stroman R 32 9 8 3.58 28 28 150.7 148 60 16 41 128
Justin Steele L 27 6 4 3.70 23 20 104.7 93 43 10 44 104
Jeremiah Estrada R 24 3 2 3.71 38 0 51.0 42 21 6 22 66
Wade Miley L 36 6 6 3.95 22 22 109.3 114 48 12 39 77
Mark Leiter Jr. R 32 6 6 3.98 30 11 83.7 74 37 10 28 88
Codi Heuer R 26 4 3 4.00 32 0 45.0 46 20 5 14 37
Jameson Taillon R 31 8 8 4.02 27 27 145.7 142 65 20 35 125
Rowan Wick R 30 4 4 4.03 55 0 58.0 55 26 7 24 61
Ben Leeper R 26 3 3 4.09 42 0 44.0 40 20 5 18 41
Adbert Alzolay R 28 6 5 4.11 20 15 81.0 73 37 12 26 85
Brandon Hughes L 27 3 2 4.13 54 0 61.0 52 28 10 22 72
Brad Boxberger R 35 3 3 4.15 58 0 52.0 46 24 7 23 56
Walker Powell R 27 6 6 4.18 28 5 79.7 82 37 10 21 59
Ben Brown R 23 5 6 4.19 24 23 103.0 99 48 12 38 88
Keegan Thompson R 28 6 7 4.22 29 15 102.3 97 48 16 38 96
Caleb Kilian R 26 5 5 4.24 23 23 108.3 103 51 10 51 105
Sean Newcomb L 30 3 3 4.35 35 3 51.7 47 25 6 29 54
Kervin Castro R 24 3 5 4.37 41 2 57.7 54 28 7 28 56
Ethan Roberts R 25 3 3 4.40 33 0 43.0 42 21 6 14 42
Matt Dermody L 32 4 4 4.42 19 11 73.3 78 36 9 23 54
Kyle Hendricks R 33 6 7 4.43 20 20 113.7 121 56 18 26 85
Jordan Wicks L 23 5 6 4.47 27 27 100.7 100 50 14 35 83
Matt Swarmer R 29 5 6 4.50 25 18 104.0 107 52 16 39 93
Robert Gsellman R 29 2 3 4.50 23 6 42.0 44 21 5 15 29
Danis Correa R 23 3 4 4.53 38 0 53.7 48 27 6 31 55
Sheldon Reed R 25 2 2 4.54 30 0 33.7 31 17 5 17 38
Hayden Wesneski R 25 7 8 4.58 23 21 106.0 106 54 13 36 90
Conner Menez L 28 3 3 4.60 25 12 72.3 69 37 10 35 74
Michael Rucker R 29 2 2 4.62 41 0 62.3 63 32 10 23 59
Brendon Little L 26 3 4 4.63 30 2 46.7 47 24 5 25 42
Scott Kobos L 25 1 2 4.68 20 0 25.0 21 13 3 17 30
Adrian Sampson 샘슨 R 31 5 6 4.72 26 20 110.7 121 58 18 34 76
Javier Assad R 25 5 6 4.73 27 24 116.0 122 61 17 45 94
Steven Brault L 31 2 3 4.82 16 10 56.0 58 30 7 24 45
Drew Smyly L 34 5 7 4.84 21 19 93.0 99 50 19 30 84
Alec Mills R 31 4 5 4.84 21 14 83.7 94 45 13 23 60
Blake Whitney R 27 4 5 4.85 30 0 55.7 58 30 9 23 52
Bailey Horn L 25 2 2 4.86 28 5 50.0 48 27 7 30 52
James Bourque R 29 2 3 4.87 31 0 40.7 36 22 6 28 51
Joe Biagini R 33 3 4 4.88 27 8 55.3 58 30 7 28 42
Stephen Gonsalves L 28 2 4 4.91 18 7 51.3 44 28 7 37 62
Wyatt Short L 28 3 5 4.91 27 5 62.3 62 34 8 31 52
Samuel Reyes R 27 3 4 4.98 26 1 47.0 49 26 8 24 43
CD Pelham L 28 1 2 4.98 31 0 34.3 34 19 5 20 33
DJ Herz L 22 4 5 5.03 27 27 91.3 78 51 12 65 103
Anderson Espinoza R 25 4 6 5.06 24 17 74.7 71 42 11 45 73
Cam Sanders R 26 4 6 5.07 26 16 81.7 80 46 13 45 78
Richard Gallardo R 21 6 9 5.10 24 23 109.3 122 62 17 42 70
Eric Stout L 30 2 2 5.13 35 3 52.7 50 30 8 33 58
Ryan Jensen R 25 3 4 5.19 18 18 59.0 59 34 9 32 52
Cayne Ueckert R 27 1 2 5.23 32 1 43.0 41 25 7 29 44
Erich Uelmen R 27 3 6 5.30 38 5 69.7 70 41 11 34 61
Peyton Remy R 26 4 6 5.31 23 10 76.3 78 45 12 38 68
Joe Nahas R 23 3 5 5.33 22 6 77.7 84 46 12 36 54
Manuel Rodríguez R 26 2 3 5.35 24 3 38.7 40 23 7 18 33
Riley Thompson R 26 3 5 5.46 18 18 56.0 61 34 11 28 51
Hunter Bigge R 25 2 5 5.75 33 0 40.7 39 26 7 33 43
Aneuris Rosario R 28 1 4 5.96 18 0 22.7 24 15 4 15 20
Eury Ramos R 25 1 2 6.00 23 1 30.0 32 20 5 20 24
Max Bain R 25 2 6 6.05 19 11 58.0 60 39 10 41 49
Eduarniel Nunez R 24 2 6 6.34 33 1 44.0 47 31 7 35 35
Brailyn Marquez L 24 2 6 7.32 12 12 51.7 57 42 16 40 58
Burl Carraway L 24 1 2 7.84 22 0 20.7 19 18 3 30 20

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Marcus Stroman 150.7 7.6 2.4 1.0 6.5% 20.2% .297 112 3.73 89 2.9
Justin Steele 104.7 8.9 3.8 0.9 9.8% 23.2% .290 109 3.81 92 1.9
Jeremiah Estrada 51.0 11.6 3.9 1.1 10.0% 30.0% .300 109 3.51 92 0.5
Wade Miley 109.3 6.3 3.2 1.0 8.2% 16.2% .297 102 4.32 98 1.7
Mark Leiter Jr. 83.7 9.5 3.0 1.1 8.0% 25.0% .290 101 3.89 99 1.2
Codi Heuer 45.0 7.4 2.8 1.0 7.0% 18.6% .301 101 4.02 99 0.3
Jameson Taillon 145.7 7.7 2.2 1.2 5.8% 20.6% .288 100 4.05 100 2.1
Rowan Wick 58.0 9.5 3.7 1.1 9.6% 24.3% .306 100 3.96 100 0.3
Ben Leeper 44.0 8.4 3.7 1.0 9.6% 21.8% .285 99 4.20 101 0.2
Adbert Alzolay 81.0 9.4 2.9 1.3 7.7% 25.1% .285 98 4.13 102 1.1
Brandon Hughes 61.0 10.6 3.2 1.5 8.6% 28.1% .282 98 4.25 102 0.3
Brad Boxberger 52.0 9.7 4.0 1.2 10.3% 25.1% .287 97 4.25 103 0.3
Walker Powell 79.7 6.7 2.4 1.1 6.2% 17.5% .293 96 4.17 104 0.8
Ben Brown 103.0 7.7 3.3 1.0 8.6% 19.9% .290 96 4.21 104 1.3
Keegan Thompson 102.3 8.4 3.3 1.4 8.6% 21.8% .284 96 4.60 105 1.3
Caleb Kilian 108.3 8.7 4.2 0.8 10.6% 21.9% .304 95 3.94 105 1.3
Sean Newcomb 51.7 9.4 5.1 1.0 12.5% 23.3% .295 93 4.37 108 0.2
Kervin Castro 57.7 8.7 4.4 1.1 11.0% 22.0% .294 92 4.40 108 0.2
Ethan Roberts 43.0 8.8 2.9 1.3 7.6% 22.7% .300 92 4.20 109 0.1
Matt Dermody 73.3 6.6 2.8 1.1 7.3% 17.1% .301 91 4.46 110 0.7
Kyle Hendricks 113.7 6.7 2.1 1.4 5.4% 17.7% .294 91 4.56 110 1.1
Jordan Wicks 100.7 7.4 3.1 1.3 8.1% 19.2% .289 90 4.53 111 1.0
Matt Swarmer 104.0 8.0 3.4 1.4 8.6% 20.4% .300 90 4.55 112 0.9
Robert Gsellman 42.0 6.2 3.2 1.1 8.2% 15.8% .293 90 4.68 112 0.3
Danis Correa 53.7 9.2 5.2 1.0 12.6% 22.4% .292 89 4.46 112 0.0
Sheldon Reed 33.7 10.2 4.5 1.3 11.3% 25.2% .299 89 4.70 113 -0.1
Hayden Wesneski 106.0 7.6 3.1 1.1 7.9% 19.8% .297 88 4.21 114 0.9
Conner Menez 72.3 9.2 4.4 1.2 10.9% 23.1% .299 88 4.52 114 0.5
Michael Rucker 62.3 8.5 3.3 1.4 8.5% 21.8% .299 87 4.60 115 -0.1
Brendon Little 46.7 8.1 4.8 1.0 11.6% 19.5% .307 87 4.55 115 0.1
Scott Kobos 25.0 10.8 6.1 1.1 15.0% 26.5% .295 86 4.59 116 0.0
Adrian Sampson 110.7 6.2 2.8 1.5 7.1% 15.8% .294 85 5.03 117 0.7
Javier Assad 116.0 7.3 3.5 1.3 8.8% 18.4% .300 85 4.78 117 0.8
Steven Brault 56.0 7.2 3.9 1.1 9.6% 18.1% .300 84 4.67 120 0.3
Drew Smyly 93.0 8.1 2.9 1.8 7.4% 20.7% .299 83 5.04 120 0.5
Alec Mills 83.7 6.5 2.5 1.4 6.3% 16.5% .305 83 4.74 120 0.4
Blake Whitney 55.7 8.4 3.7 1.5 9.2% 20.7% .306 83 4.73 120 -0.3
Bailey Horn 50.0 9.4 5.4 1.3 13.1% 22.7% .301 83 4.81 121 0.0
James Bourque 40.7 11.3 6.2 1.3 14.7% 26.8% .303 83 4.85 121 -0.2
Joe Biagini 55.3 6.8 4.6 1.1 11.2% 16.7% .298 83 4.96 121 0.2
Stephen Gonsalves 51.3 10.9 6.5 1.2 15.7% 26.3% .294 82 5.02 122 0.1
Wyatt Short 62.3 7.5 4.5 1.2 11.1% 18.6% .293 82 5.08 122 0.0
Samuel Reyes 47.0 8.2 4.6 1.5 11.3% 20.2% .301 81 5.20 123 -0.3
CD Pelham 34.3 8.7 5.2 1.3 12.3% 20.4% .299 81 5.13 124 -0.3
DJ Herz 91.3 10.1 6.4 1.2 15.4% 24.3% .286 80 5.10 125 0.3
Anderson Espinoza 74.7 8.8 5.4 1.3 13.2% 21.3% .291 80 5.24 126 0.1
Cam Sanders 81.7 8.6 5.0 1.4 12.1% 21.0% .294 80 5.30 126 0.2
Richard Gallardo 109.3 5.8 3.5 1.4 8.6% 14.4% .297 79 5.21 127 0.2
Eric Stout 52.7 9.9 5.6 1.4 13.8% 24.2% .302 79 5.03 127 -0.2
Ryan Jensen 59.0 7.9 4.9 1.4 12.0% 19.5% .292 78 5.25 129 0.1
Cayne Ueckert 43.0 9.2 6.1 1.5 14.6% 22.1% .293 77 5.53 130 -0.4
Erich Uelmen 69.7 7.9 4.4 1.4 10.9% 19.6% .292 76 5.39 131 -0.3
Peyton Remy 76.3 8.0 4.5 1.4 11.0% 19.6% .297 76 5.26 132 -0.1
Joe Nahas 77.7 6.3 4.2 1.4 10.2% 15.3% .294 76 5.43 132 -0.2
Manuel Rodríguez 38.7 7.7 4.2 1.6 10.4% 19.1% .292 75 5.43 133 -0.3
Riley Thompson 56.0 8.2 4.5 1.8 10.9% 19.8% .307 74 5.49 136 0.0
Hunter Bigge 40.7 9.5 7.3 1.5 16.8% 21.8% .296 70 5.78 143 -0.6
Aneuris Rosario 22.7 7.9 6.0 1.6 14.3% 19.0% .303 68 5.80 148 -0.4
Eury Ramos 30.0 7.2 6.0 1.5 13.5% 16.2% .297 67 5.82 149 -0.5
Max Bain 58.0 7.6 6.4 1.6 14.7% 17.6% .292 67 6.24 150 -0.6
Eduarniel Nunez 44.0 7.2 7.2 1.4 15.9% 15.9% .299 64 6.36 157 -0.9
Brailyn Marquez 51.7 10.1 7.0 2.8 15.6% 22.6% .304 55 7.43 181 -1.1
Burl Carraway 20.7 8.7 13.1 1.3 25.9% 17.2% .281 51 7.90 194 -0.8

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Marcus Stroman Frank Lary Roy Halladay Larry Jackson 3.8 1.9 3.12 4.19
Justin Steele Hector Santiago Al Milnar Tom Lasorda 2.6 0.9 3.21 4.33
Jeremiah Estrada Aaron Rakers Jeremy Lambert David Riske 1.0 -0.1 2.93 4.56
Wade Miley Kenny Rogers Tommy John Curt Simmons 2.3 1.0 3.41 4.54
Mark Leiter Jr. Joe Black Ray Burris Red Munger 2.0 0.5 3.28 4.75
Codi Heuer Josh Parker Bob Chlupsa Rich Linares 0.6 0.0 3.41 4.47
Jameson Taillon Jordan Zimmermann Jeff Samardzija Anthony DeSclafani 2.9 1.0 3.56 4.69
Rowan Wick Luis Sanchez Phil Paine Bob Taylor 1.0 -0.3 3.15 5.01
Ben Leeper Barry Jones Ken Sanders Jim Donohue 0.6 -0.2 3.52 4.86
Adbert Alzolay Steve Stone Steve Gromek Jharel Cotton 1.6 0.3 3.60 4.79
Brandon Hughes Eddie Guardado Matt Strahm Rich Folkers 1.0 -0.4 3.31 5.01
Brad Boxberger Brian Boehringer Jason Grimsley Turk Wendell 0.9 -0.6 3.22 5.91
Walker Powell Eddie Gamboa Frank Herrmann Harold Deitz 1.3 0.2 3.62 4.79
Ben Brown Tom Parsons Andre Treadway Sandy Vance 2.0 0.6 3.66 4.84
Keegan Thompson Ron Schueler Bobby Bolin Bobby Castillo 2.1 0.3 3.67 4.84
Caleb Kilian Kerry Taylor Bob Walk Brett Laxton 2.0 0.4 3.76 4.88
Sean Newcomb C.J. Nitkowski 니코스키 Jeff Schneider Wil Ledezma 0.7 -0.4 3.65 5.50
Kervin Castro Jose Rodriguez Carl Shelen Chris Bennett 0.7 -0.3 3.76 5.07
Ethan Roberts Stacy Morgan Chris Niesel Jerome Gamble 0.5 -0.4 3.60 5.31
Matt Dermody Jason Jacome Al Jackson Yohan Flande 플란데 1.2 0.2 3.87 5.02
Kyle Hendricks Braden Looper Red Barrett Joel Pineiro 1.8 0.4 3.91 5.02
Jordan Wicks Andrew Heaney Mike Willis Jon Kibler 1.5 0.3 3.99 5.13
Matt Swarmer Chuck Dobson Ollie Brantley Chris Carpenter 1.7 0.2 3.95 5.09
Robert Gsellman P.J. Francescon Jeff Gray Martin Sotelo 0.6 -0.1 3.91 5.18
Danis Correa Barry Jones Dominic Leone Mike Newson 0.4 -0.5 3.88 5.41
Sheldon Reed Donald Hammitt Gene Stechschulte Jim Bryant 0.3 -0.4 3.86 5.40
Hayden Wesneski Jordan Lyles Justin Grimm Jacob Turner 터너 1.6 0.0 4.02 5.33
Conner Menez Mike Mimbs Chet Nichols Ben Kozlowski 1.1 -0.2 3.92 5.45
Michael Rucker Alfredo Simon Ray Krawczyk Jake Henson 0.3 -0.7 3.97 5.39
Brendon Little Randolph Hopkins Chad Brown Mike Santiago 0.5 -0.2 3.96 5.24
Scott Kobos Luis Quintana Sydney Church Gerry Rub 0.3 -0.3 3.69 5.63
Adrian Sampson Leverette Spencer Max Butcher George Blaeholder 1.3 0.0 4.25 5.32
Javier Assad Jeremy Guthrie Denny Wagner Steve Maye 1.5 0.0 4.27 5.29
Steven Brault Greg Mathews Johnny Schmitz Paul Mirabella 0.6 -0.2 4.31 5.66
Drew Smyly Fred Waters Howie Pollet Bill Sherdel 1.1 -0.3 4.23 5.64
Alec Mills Virgil Vasquez John Butcher Sean Bergman 0.9 -0.1 4.32 5.48
Blake Whitney Antonio Alfonseca Derek Gordon Connor Overton 0.2 -0.8 4.18 5.61
Bailey Horn Atahualpa Severino Kenny Esposito Matt Marksberry 0.5 -0.4 4.15 5.75
James Bourque Wally Wolf Kaleb Ort Matt Skrmetta 0.2 -0.7 4.01 6.00
Joe Biagini Hal Griggs Willie Banks Mike Walker 0.6 -0.3 4.32 5.67
Stephen Gonsalves Brent Leach Matt Riley Nick Hagadone 0.6 -0.5 4.22 5.99
Wyatt Short Rafael Novoa Ed Vosberg Cesar Ramos 0.5 -0.5 4.32 5.56
Samuel Reyes Steve Cline Steve Sharpe Jeff Kaplan 0.1 -0.8 4.39 5.89
CD Pelham Mike Guilfoyle Pete Cappadona Mike Santiago 0.1 -0.6 4.28 5.84
DJ Herz Gerry Hannahs Frank Bertaina Carl Hamilton 1.1 -0.6 4.37 5.95
Anderson Espinoza Paul Demny Steve Dunning Yeiper Castillo 0.7 -0.5 4.51 5.74
Cam Sanders Rich Yett Tanner Houck Steve Dunning 0.8 -0.4 4.56 5.73
Richard Gallardo Brad Schorr Jose Tapia Casey Daigle 0.8 -0.5 4.68 5.65
Eric Stout Mark Bowden Matt Thornton Matt Williams 0.2 -0.9 4.44 6.61
Ryan Jensen Travis Lakins Jim Rittwage Dan Opperman 0.6 -0.4 4.59 5.84
Cayne Ueckert Jim Henderson Tom Hackimer Mike Franco 0.0 -0.9 4.52 6.24
Erich Uelmen Paul Clemens Dick Lange Rich Yett 0.2 -0.9 4.71 6.03
Peyton Remy Reed Garrett Jon Velasquez Dan Hall 0.5 -0.8 4.68 6.08
Joe Nahas Joseph Pollack Clint Koppe Jean Garavito 0.4 -0.8 4.75 5.96
Manuel Rodríguez Fernando Ramos Cortland Cox Matt Stites 0.1 -0.7 4.71 6.20
Riley Thompson Adam Springston Mike Vicaro Devern Hansack 0.3 -0.5 4.90 6.22
Hunter Bigge Kieran Lovegrove Scott Economy Mike Heinen -0.2 -1.1 4.93 6.68
Aneuris Rosario Mike Heinen Kirt Kishita Les Munns -0.2 -0.7 5.18 7.34
Eury Ramos Bubba Brevell Jose DeLeon Todd Naff -0.2 -0.8 5.32 6.95
Max Bain Carlos Polanco Troy Bradford Tony Fiore -0.1 -1.1 5.39 6.78
Eduarniel Nunez Chip Cunningham Jheyson Manzueta Luis Heredia -0.5 -1.3 5.62 7.24
Brailyn Marquez Justin Steele Eric Fischer Brendon Little -0.7 -1.7 6.34 8.84
Burl Carraway Michael O’Connor Monty McMillan Douglas Britt -0.6 -1.1 6.67 9.38

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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sadtrombonemember
1 month ago

That projection on Hoerner looks like it would play far better at shortstop than second base, but with Madrigal and Morel’s projections he doesn’t seem likely to move. I’d still consider dealing him for pitching and signing Segura or rolling with Morel or Madrigal anyway. Hoerner’s Aybar comp is quite apt since he is clearly in The Erick Aybar Zone, the kind of guy whose special talent is playing a very hard position well. He moves to second base and a lot of that is wasted.

SenorGato
1 month ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Few things:

2B is still up the middle and playing defense there will carry plenty of Value post-shift

Hoerner during 2020 was a top of the league defensive player at 2B by OOA. Cubs won le division

Hoerner plays multiple positions well as a viable SS and 2B

Consider him more a 2020s Aybar