2023 ZiPS Projections: Chicago White Sox

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and today’s team is the Chicago White Sox.

Batters

Imagine you’ve just built your dream home. You had an architect come up with a custom design that you absolutely loved. You hand selected the building materials, from the hardwood floors to the Spanish tiles in the roof. You’re ready to move into your endgame house! But wait, almost forgot, you have to furnish the house too, huh? OK, let’s head down to Crazy Joe’s Discount Furniture and find four dining room chairs without cigarette burns. The maroon couch behind the abandoned Caldor next to the bowling alley that still uses a sign from 1973 looks nice. I’m sure the smell will come out of that Craigslist mattress, and it’s not like you need all of the springs.

The White Sox did so many things well while building up the team, but they face-planted as soon as it was time to compete. Once the fun began, the discipline in the team’s decision-making disappeared. Want the 1980s manager for no reason? Sure! Need to solve the problem of two of your best young bats both essentially being designated hitters? Split the difference and have neither of them be the DH! Surely all that money you were going to use to sign Manny Machado will go towards other budgetary needs? Nope? Well, you’ve got Leury Garcia.

There’s so much talent here, including half a dozen or so still-youngish players who should be part of the organization over the long haul. But when the Sox reached for the top, it’s almost like upper management decided that hanging out at Base Camp was pretty sweet, leaving no need to head for the summit. Many of the elements of an excellent offense are on the roster; having Luis Robert, Yasmani Grandal, Eloy Jiménez, Tim Anderson, and Andrew Vaughn is a great start, but it’s not a finish. Even with injury a concern for the majority of that list, the team took a lackadaisical approach to dealing with its holes, either leaving them unaddressed or slapping in whoever could be acquired inexpensively. Just like last year, the Sox need to address second base, DH, and an outfield position at a bare minimum. This time around, it’s even more urgent; the projections of most of the principals anticipate worse performance in less playing time than before the 2022 season. Also of import is that because of changes in scheduling, the Sox will almost certainly face tougher opposition in the aggregate in 2023.

Some may be disappointed by the Oscar Colas projection, but the fact remains that he’s incredibly risky right now, a player with one professional season in the United States and at levels for which he was not young. In addition, offense exploded in most of the minor leagues in 2022, so there’s more air to take out of the statistics than usual. Chicago should be risk-averse when it comes to starters.

The Sox have given little indication that they plan to be aggressive this offseason, which means they may have already passed the high-water mark for this core. There just aren’t a lot of reinforcements on the farm, and players like Bryan Ramos and Colson Montgomery may come too late.

Pitchers

As with the offense, there is a lot to like on the pitching staff, but a frightening fragility once you get past the big names. If Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, Michael Kopech, and Mike Clevinger all start 30 games, everything in the rotation ought to look hunky-dory. But if there’s an injury or two, things get dark — and I mean in the Darren Aronofsky sense — very quickly. This roster couldn’t have survived even a small percentage of the injuries the Dodgers managed to weather in 2022. On the plus side, ZiPS sees a good bounce-back campaign for Giolito, and anticipates that Cease will remain a top-15 starting pitcher. On the other hand, Clevinger was fairly awful in 2022; I wish they had shown a little more ambition there.

The one thing the White Sox have done well is build an excellent bullpen, even with the Craig Kimbrel acquisition in 2021 not meeting their expectations. The final projections aren’t in, but it looks like they’ll be projected to have at least a top-three relief corps per ZiPS, if not the best in baseball. You can go eight or nine deep on the depth chart before you hit a reliever who I’d really be frightened to see outside of a low-leverage situation. My hope here is that the Sox spend the winter neglecting the bullpen the way they did with the rest of the roster in 2021; if they’re determined to only spend a small amount of money, there are far bigger needs than another reliever.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Luis Robert R 25 CF 445 414 64 113 21 2 18 68 23 97 13 4
Yasmani Grandal B 34 C 435 358 44 81 13 0 16 50 69 95 1 1
Yoán Moncada B 28 3B 539 479 64 120 26 2 16 63 52 140 4 2
Andrew Vaughn R 25 1B 593 531 65 142 28 1 28 82 48 98 0 1
Tim Anderson R 30 SS 476 454 70 133 22 1 13 45 18 91 14 3
Mark Payton L 31 CF 485 434 57 108 23 3 14 62 38 84 6 4
Carlos Pérez R 26 C 452 416 44 103 18 1 11 52 24 46 1 1
Eloy Jiménez R 26 LF 445 409 53 110 18 1 23 71 31 103 0 1
Josh Harrison R 35 2B 409 371 42 92 19 2 7 35 22 67 4 3
Lenyn Sosa R 23 SS 543 502 59 123 20 1 15 66 25 112 2 4
Elvis Andrus R 34 SS 529 487 60 116 23 1 12 51 33 84 16 4
Bryan Ramos R 21 3B 542 488 58 109 19 2 17 74 33 119 2 1
Danny Mendick R 29 SS 363 327 43 76 12 1 8 41 29 80 5 3
Adam Haseley L 27 CF 448 407 49 95 17 2 11 51 28 90 9 2
Zach Remillard R 29 SS 450 399 55 87 14 1 8 49 36 120 9 4
Oscar Colas L 24 CF 546 510 64 121 18 3 21 77 28 146 2 3
Seby Zavala R 29 C 336 298 38 59 14 0 11 39 28 128 0 0
Jose A. Rodriguez R 22 SS 514 482 66 118 20 5 11 57 26 84 19 7
Romy Gonzalez R 26 SS 341 316 41 68 12 0 13 44 22 112 7 3
Adam Engel R 31 CF 328 300 39 67 14 2 7 32 18 92 12 3
Jake Burger R 27 3B 363 332 39 75 12 2 13 48 23 100 0 1
Tyler Neslony L 29 RF 353 322 43 77 20 2 10 46 26 82 7 3
AJ Pollock R 35 LF 432 397 52 99 20 1 16 52 28 86 4 1
Gavin Sheets L 27 RF 476 434 49 106 20 0 18 63 35 104 0 1
Alsander Womack R 24 2B 348 303 36 71 9 1 7 35 27 66 2 3
Nick Ciuffo L 28 C 147 137 12 26 5 0 3 15 8 50 0 1
Evan Skoug L 27 C 244 214 24 40 10 1 8 31 23 84 1 1
Yoelqui Céspedes R 25 CF 461 421 51 89 21 1 12 73 20 155 15 7
Adam Hackenberg R 23 C 344 306 25 65 12 0 6 40 21 89 0 1
Shawn Goosenberg R 23 2B 102 92 10 15 4 0 2 14 7 42 2 1
Yolbert Sanchez R 26 2B 485 453 39 111 15 2 5 45 25 77 5 5
Terrell Tatum L 23 LF 154 130 16 24 7 0 2 15 20 57 6 2
Leury Garcia B 32 2B 420 386 55 96 16 2 5 35 21 89 5 2
Patrick Kivlehan R 33 1B 392 355 38 73 14 1 16 53 28 121 2 2
Colson Montgomery L 21 SS 412 358 41 77 14 1 8 51 33 99 0 1
JJ Muno L 29 3B 312 272 36 53 8 2 4 41 24 89 12 5
Laz Rivera R 28 2B 324 297 33 65 11 1 5 38 16 79 6 6
Ben Norman L 25 RF 264 242 24 46 10 0 9 30 18 103 3 1
Luis Mieses L 23 RF 529 495 51 114 29 1 13 62 19 110 0 1
Luis Alexander Basabe B 26 CF 195 174 20 31 6 1 2 16 18 76 4 1
Xavier Fernández R 27 C 291 267 27 62 9 0 6 29 17 52 1 1
Ivan Gonzalez R 26 C 177 166 15 35 8 0 2 17 9 39 0 1
D.J. Burt R 27 3B 358 320 39 69 10 2 3 29 31 83 19 6
Craig Dedelow L 28 RF 497 442 55 82 15 4 18 62 40 199 5 3
Moises Castillo R 23 SS 438 392 46 82 15 0 4 41 33 104 4 2
Blake Rutherford L 26 LF 490 460 50 107 21 3 9 51 21 120 5 3
Keegan Fish B 23 C 156 137 12 23 4 0 2 17 11 59 1 1
Tyler Osik R 26 DH 373 334 35 71 13 1 7 49 24 110 2 2
Micker Adolfo R 26 RF 383 353 39 69 18 0 14 49 23 151 4 2
Ryder Jones L 29 3B 263 234 19 45 9 0 5 28 13 85 0 1
Jameson Fisher L 29 1B 394 355 39 72 16 1 6 38 32 119 2 2
Dwight Smith Jr. L 30 LF 274 249 25 52 9 1 5 27 21 62 2 1
Duke Ellis L 25 LF 415 378 49 72 11 1 6 41 27 131 22 5
James Beard R 22 CF 343 306 29 44 6 1 5 27 31 168 10 5
DJ Gladney R 21 1B 501 459 42 83 15 2 15 58 29 213 4 1
Wes Kath L 20 3B 493 445 40 78 14 1 11 49 37 206 1 1
Wilfred Veras R 20 1B 465 427 44 90 18 2 15 60 21 153 2 1

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Luis Robert 445 .273 .319 .464 114 .191 .318 5 2.8 .335
Yasmani Grandal 435 .226 .353 .397 108 .170 .263 3 2.7 .331
Yoán Moncada 539 .251 .329 .413 105 .163 .322 2 2.2 .323
Andrew Vaughn 593 .267 .336 .482 124 .215 .281 -1 2.2 .350
Tim Anderson 476 .293 .324 .432 108 .139 .343 -4 2.0 .325
Mark Payton 485 .249 .311 .412 99 .164 .280 -1 1.3 .312
Carlos Pérez 452 .248 .293 .375 84 .127 .256 2 1.2 .291
Eloy Jiménez 445 .269 .321 .487 120 .218 .307 -6 1.2 .344
Josh Harrison 409 .248 .309 .367 87 .119 .286 3 1.0 .297
Lenyn Sosa 543 .245 .286 .378 83 .133 .288 2 1.0 .288
Elvis Andrus 529 .238 .290 .363 80 .125 .266 0 0.9 .284
Bryan Ramos 542 .223 .285 .375 81 .152 .261 3 0.8 .288
Danny Mendick 363 .232 .299 .349 80 .116 .285 2 0.7 .286
Adam Haseley 448 .233 .291 .366 81 .133 .275 1 0.6 .287
Zach Remillard 450 .218 .294 .318 71 .100 .292 3 0.6 .275
Oscar Colas 546 .237 .283 .408 89 .171 .292 -3 0.6 .297
Seby Zavala 336 .198 .274 .356 73 .158 .302 2 0.6 .277
Jose A. Rodriguez 514 .245 .286 .376 82 .131 .276 -4 0.5 .286
Romy Gonzalez 341 .215 .270 .377 77 .161 .288 2 0.5 .280
Adam Engel 328 .223 .284 .353 76 .130 .299 2 0.4 .279
Jake Burger 363 .226 .285 .392 86 .166 .283 -1 0.3 .293
Tyler Neslony 353 .239 .301 .407 94 .168 .291 -1 0.3 .307
AJ Pollock 432 .249 .303 .426 100 .176 .281 -4 0.2 .313
Gavin Sheets 476 .244 .303 .415 97 .171 .282 -4 0.2 .311
Alsander Womack 348 .234 .300 .340 78 .106 .278 0 0.1 .283
Nick Ciuffo 147 .190 .238 .292 46 .102 .274 4 0.0 .234
Evan Skoug 244 .187 .280 .355 75 .168 .262 -4 -0.1 .281
Yoelqui Céspedes 461 .211 .273 .352 72 .140 .303 -1 -0.1 .275
Adam Hackenberg 344 .212 .279 .310 64 .098 .280 -1 -0.1 .263
Shawn Goosenberg 102 .163 .245 .272 44 .109 .271 2 -0.2 .235
Yolbert Sanchez 485 .245 .288 .320 69 .075 .286 2 -0.2 .269
Terrell Tatum 154 .185 .296 .285 63 .100 .310 1 -0.2 .267
Leury Garcia 420 .249 .292 .339 75 .091 .312 -3 -0.2 .277
Patrick Kivlehan 392 .206 .272 .386 80 .180 .261 1 -0.4 .285
Colson Montgomery 412 .215 .294 .327 73 .112 .275 -7 -0.4 .277
JJ Muno 312 .195 .290 .283 61 .088 .274 -1 -0.4 .263
Laz Rivera 324 .219 .274 .313 63 .094 .282 1 -0.4 .261
Ben Norman 264 .190 .248 .343 62 .153 .285 3 -0.5 .258
Luis Mieses 529 .230 .262 .372 74 .141 .272 5 -0.5 .273
Luis Alexander Basabe 195 .178 .259 .259 45 .080 .302 1 -0.5 .236
Xavier Fernández 291 .232 .281 .333 70 .101 .268 -7 -0.6 .270
Ivan Gonzalez 177 .211 .260 .295 54 .084 .264 -3 -0.6 .247
D.J. Burt 358 .216 .285 .288 60 .072 .282 -2 -0.6 .258
Craig Dedelow 497 .186 .259 .360 70 .174 .284 4 -0.6 .270
Moises Castillo 438 .209 .282 .278 57 .069 .275 -2 -0.7 .254
Blake Rutherford 490 .233 .269 .350 70 .117 .296 2 -0.9 .268
Keegan Fish 156 .168 .248 .241 37 .073 .276 -5 -1.0 .225
Tyler Osik 373 .213 .283 .320 68 .108 .295 0 -1.0 .269
Micker Adolfo 383 .195 .252 .365 69 .170 .293 -2 -1.1 .268
Ryder Jones 263 .192 .243 .295 49 .103 .278 -3 -1.2 .237
Jameson Fisher 394 .203 .270 .304 60 .101 .287 0 -1.5 .255
Dwight Smith Jr. 274 .209 .274 .313 63 .104 .258 -8 -1.6 .261
Duke Ellis 415 .190 .255 .272 47 .082 .274 1 -1.6 .238
James Beard 343 .144 .229 .219 26 .075 .293 0 -1.9 .208
DJ Gladney 501 .181 .236 .320 53 .139 .294 2 -2.1 .244
Wes Kath 493 .175 .244 .285 47 .110 .294 -4 -2.1 .237
Wilfred Veras 465 .211 .254 .368 70 .157 .290 -9 -2.1 .268

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Luis Robert Bobby Tolan Rondell White Felipe Alou
Yasmani Grandal A.J. Ellis Russell Martin Miguel Montero
Yoán Moncada Scott Sizemore Jeimer Candelario Jim Davenport
Andrew Vaughn Mike Sweeney Pat Putnam Wally Joyner
Tim Anderson Alvin Dark Buck Weaver Trea Turner
Mark Payton Ruben Amaro Jim Eisenreich Mike Kreevich
Carlos Pérez Bengie Molina Einar Díaz Johnny Estrada
Eloy Jiménez Allen Craig Bob Watson Lamar Johnson
Josh Harrison Jimmy Brown Alcides Escobar Scott Fletcher
Lenyn Sosa Rick Renteria Bill Knickerbocker Glenn Hoffman
Elvis Andrus Alexei Ramirez Erick Aybar Cookie Rojas
Bryan Ramos Jose Castro Roy Staiger Mat Gamel
Danny Mendick Melvin Mora Steve Tolleson Ruben Amaro
Adam Haseley Charlie Blackmon Dave Francia R.J. Englert
Zach Remillard Shane Halter Trenidad Hubbard Brandon Wilson
Oscar Colas Mike Vail Adam Jones Mark Corey
Seby Zavala Kevin Buckley Jayhawk Owens Kelly Shoppach
Jose A. Rodriguez Adam Kennedy Enrique Wilson Joaquin Arias
Romy Gonzalez Bill Barrett Andy Reese Brandon Dixon
Adam Engel Jeff Stone Reggie Williams Isaac Galloway
Jake Burger Chris Woodward Howard Nichols Terry Hughes
Tyler Neslony Dwight Smith Xavier Paul Larry Stahl
AJ Pollock Al Simmons Clyde Milan John Rodriguez
Gavin Sheets Angel Echevarria Lonnie Chisenhall Willie Montanez
Alsander Womack Andres Forbes Jon Schemmel Brian Rey
Nick Ciuffo Nick Trzesniak Dave Ullery Pat Tomkinson
Evan Skoug John Vance David Lyon Doug Gwosdz
Yoelqui Céspedes Cesar Hernandez Frederick Wolcott Lou Brock
Adam Hackenberg Pedro Pages Dusty Wathan Kyle Geiger
Shawn Goosenberg Fernando De Los Santos Malik Collymore Kelvin Vazquez
Yolbert Sanchez James Beresford Remy Hermoso Bobby Richardson
Terrell Tatum George Johnson Pedro Rabassa D.J. Artis
Leury Garcia Cristian Guzman Jose Vizcaino Julio Linares
Patrick Kivlehan Eddie Lantigua Josh Mazzola Don Taussig
Colson Montgomery William Gifford Greg Norton Craig Repoz
JJ Muno Freddie Bynum Anthony Seratelli Mike Mesh
Laz Rivera Jeff Kobernus Jhonny Perez Damian Rolls
Ben Norman Alhaji Turay Dan Collier Manuel Lutz
Luis Mieses Andrew Pullin Mark Smith Ben Abner
Luis Alexander Basabe Matt Meath Zach Welz Brian Majeski
Xavier Fernández Billy Vickery Gary Resetar Ramon Cabrera
Ivan Gonzalez Jairo Rodriguez Joel Collins Miguel Gonzalez
D.J. Burt Juan Castillo Johnny Raburn Jimmy Mojica
Craig Dedelow Jacques Landry Cory Aldridge Claude Westmoreland
Moises Castillo Danny Mendick Ryan Jackson Ron Gasper
Blake Rutherford William Andring Brian Cornelius Pedro Alomar
Keegan Fish Derek Dana Josh Davis Frank Masters
Tyler Osik Bill McCarthy Sam Travis Steve Susdorf
Micker Adolfo Andrew Dyes Will Skinner Henry Mitchell
Ryder Jones Fred McAlister Nick Giarraputo Jeff Eure
Jameson Fisher Mike Rohde Allison Owen John Curl
Dwight Smith Jr. Rich Aldrete Jeff Fiorentino John Schmitz
Duke Ellis Chris Morris Javis Diaz Terrance Gore
James Beard Champ Stuart Brandon Diaz James Kirkland
DJ Gladney Thomas Prazych Wily Mo Pena Shawn Gallagher
Wes Kath Billy Rowell Daryl Clark Stephen Lindsey
Wilfred Veras Matt Dean Richie Sexson Rich Murray

Batters – 20th/80th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Luis Robert .301 .351 .528 137 4.1 .244 .295 .409 92 1.6
Yasmani Grandal .252 .379 .453 130 3.8 .198 .321 .336 87 1.7
Yoán Moncada .278 .357 .473 127 3.7 .225 .304 .364 87 1.1
Andrew Vaughn .296 .363 .539 145 3.8 .244 .311 .420 100 0.6
Tim Anderson .315 .348 .477 128 3.2 .264 .296 .393 91 0.9
Mark Payton .272 .336 .458 116 2.3 .225 .286 .363 81 0.2
Carlos Pérez .279 .322 .431 105 2.3 .219 .265 .326 63 0.0
Eloy Jiménez .294 .347 .547 141 2.3 .242 .295 .427 99 0.0
Josh Harrison .276 .336 .411 105 1.9 .221 .283 .323 70 0.1
Lenyn Sosa .270 .312 .441 105 2.5 .222 .264 .336 66 -0.2
Elvis Andrus .261 .313 .403 96 2.1 .212 .264 .317 62 -0.2
Bryan Ramos .250 .309 .428 101 2.1 .202 .261 .322 61 -0.5
Danny Mendick .258 .323 .397 99 1.5 .206 .275 .304 62 0.0
Adam Haseley .259 .318 .417 100 1.7 .209 .268 .318 63 -0.4
Zach Remillard .247 .323 .360 89 1.7 .191 .271 .273 53 -0.4
Oscar Colas .262 .312 .462 109 1.9 .209 .255 .349 65 -0.9
Seby Zavala .229 .305 .422 96 1.5 .172 .245 .299 50 -0.4
Jose A. Rodriguez .272 .312 .425 102 1.9 .223 .263 .337 67 -0.5
Romy Gonzalez .242 .296 .433 99 1.4 .189 .239 .318 54 -0.4
Adam Engel .255 .313 .408 97 1.3 .200 .258 .301 56 -0.4
Jake Burger .250 .311 .446 105 1.2 .202 .261 .338 65 -0.5
Tyler Neslony .263 .326 .454 113 1.1 .213 .276 .362 76 -0.5
AJ Pollock .271 .324 .471 116 1.2 .221 .274 .374 79 -0.9
Gavin Sheets .270 .328 .469 119 1.4 .218 .273 .365 78 -0.9
Alsander Womack .259 .325 .383 95 0.9 .210 .279 .297 63 -0.5
Nick Ciuffo .216 .270 .345 68 0.4 .160 .211 .246 27 -0.4
Evan Skoug .218 .308 .424 99 0.6 .160 .244 .303 53 -0.8
Yoelqui Céspedes .237 .297 .398 91 0.9 .188 .248 .311 56 -1.1
Adam Hackenberg .240 .305 .355 81 0.6 .187 .255 .273 48 -0.8
Shawn Goosenberg .191 .275 .332 65 0.1 .137 .219 .219 22 -0.4
Yolbert Sanchez .272 .315 .356 85 0.8 .218 .258 .282 51 -1.3
Terrell Tatum .214 .325 .336 85 0.2 .157 .267 .244 45 -0.6
Leury Garcia .277 .320 .375 92 0.6 .223 .266 .300 57 -1.2
Patrick Kivlehan .234 .300 .453 107 0.9 .179 .244 .334 61 -1.3
Colson Montgomery .239 .321 .373 90 0.5 .193 .273 .284 58 -1.2
JJ Muno .223 .318 .326 81 0.4 .172 .264 .243 45 -1.0
Laz Rivera .249 .303 .361 83 0.4 .197 .251 .274 47 -1.1
Ben Norman .218 .276 .389 83 0.2 .165 .220 .287 41 -1.1
Luis Mieses .251 .282 .421 92 0.7 .205 .235 .326 56 -1.7
Luis Alexander Basabe .204 .288 .302 61 -0.1 .150 .232 .222 27 -1.0
Xavier Fernández .263 .313 .390 92 0.2 .200 .252 .285 52 -1.3
Ivan Gonzalez .239 .287 .333 71 -0.3 .180 .229 .254 35 -1.1
D.J. Burt .240 .314 .322 76 0.1 .190 .258 .253 43 -1.4
Craig Dedelow .212 .282 .410 88 0.5 .159 .232 .305 48 -1.9
Moises Castillo .234 .304 .317 72 0.2 .185 .256 .248 43 -1.5
Blake Rutherford .251 .288 .386 85 0.0 .211 .247 .311 55 -1.9
Keegan Fish .200 .280 .286 57 -0.6 .139 .221 .199 18 -1.4
Tyler Osik .237 .306 .369 85 -0.2 .186 .255 .278 49 -1.8
Micker Adolfo .223 .277 .422 90 -0.1 .172 .226 .316 49 -2.1
Ryder Jones .219 .270 .345 70 -0.5 .170 .217 .252 32 -1.7
Jameson Fisher .232 .301 .348 80 -0.5 .180 .244 .267 43 -2.3
Dwight Smith Jr. .237 .305 .365 83 -0.9 .184 .247 .275 47 -2.2
Duke Ellis .218 .280 .310 64 -0.7 .168 .231 .237 33 -2.3
James Beard .173 .262 .267 45 -1.0 .118 .203 .179 8 -2.6
DJ Gladney .204 .261 .368 72 -0.9 .155 .211 .274 35 -3.2
Wes Kath .201 .268 .337 66 -1.0 .151 .218 .239 29 -3.2
Wilfred Veras .237 .277 .422 91 -1.0 .187 .226 .314 50 -3.3

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Liam Hendriks R 34 5 3 3.16 57 0 57.0 43 20 8 16 82
Aaron Bummer L 29 3 2 3.18 51 0 51.0 40 18 3 21 54
Dylan Cease R 27 13 8 3.43 31 31 176.0 138 67 21 71 217
Kendall Graveman R 32 4 2 3.53 57 0 58.7 50 23 5 23 57
Garrett Crochet L 24 4 3 3.70 49 0 48.7 38 20 5 28 61
Joe Kelly R 35 2 2 3.72 41 1 36.3 29 15 3 19 44
Lance Lynn R 36 9 7 3.90 23 23 131.7 123 57 18 35 132
Lucas Giolito R 28 10 9 3.97 27 27 158.7 138 70 21 50 172
José Ruiz R 28 1 1 3.99 58 0 58.7 52 26 7 26 62
Reynaldo López R 29 7 7 4.16 39 14 97.3 89 45 12 30 94
Michael Kopech R 27 6 7 4.24 29 20 108.3 95 51 16 44 111
Matt Foster R 28 2 2 4.27 52 0 52.7 49 25 8 18 53
Tanner Banks L 31 3 3 4.28 34 6 73.7 74 35 11 19 68
Kyle Crick R 30 2 3 4.28 32 0 33.7 26 16 3 18 37
Jake Diekman L 36 3 4 4.50 59 0 50.0 40 25 7 31 64
Johnny Cueto R 37 8 8 4.50 25 24 144.0 158 72 22 37 95
Theo Denlinger R 26 2 2 4.57 37 0 43.3 40 22 7 20 47
Mike Clevinger R 32 6 8 4.58 24 23 114.0 110 58 18 40 103
Andrew Perez L 25 3 3 4.58 50 1 55.0 51 28 8 23 54
Sean Burke R 23 6 8 4.68 26 25 102.0 95 53 15 48 100
Sammy Peralta L 25 3 3 4.69 32 0 55.7 53 29 9 20 53
Davis Martin R 26 7 9 4.69 28 24 117.0 115 61 17 41 105
Jonathan Stiever R 26 4 5 4.70 14 14 69.0 69 36 12 21 62
Nate Fisher L 27 2 2 4.72 28 11 74.3 72 39 10 30 60
Vince Vannelle R 25 3 4 4.75 36 0 41.7 40 22 6 22 38
Lane Ramsey R 26 2 3 4.79 34 1 35.7 35 19 5 20 32
Bennett Sousa L 28 2 4 4.81 45 0 43.0 41 23 7 18 42
Zach Muckenhirn L 28 2 3 4.84 41 0 48.3 47 26 7 24 43
J.B. Olson R 28 2 4 4.84 44 11 61.3 66 33 9 21 40
Kade McClure R 27 3 5 4.87 33 10 85.0 87 46 14 28 72
Parker Markel R 32 2 4 4.87 39 0 44.3 37 24 6 31 54
Haylen Green L 25 3 3 4.94 36 0 58.3 61 32 10 16 41
Garrett Schoenle L 25 5 6 5.00 28 13 75.7 73 42 12 34 67
Cristian Mena R 20 3 5 5.00 24 24 99.0 100 55 17 43 89
Jason Bilous R 25 6 8 5.01 26 20 93.3 89 52 13 53 90
Jimmy Lambert R 28 3 3 5.04 34 12 60.7 59 34 11 30 59
Emilio Vargas R 26 5 6 5.10 23 17 95.3 97 54 16 41 79
Kyle Kubat L 30 4 6 5.10 31 15 90.0 96 51 14 38 63
Kohl Simas R 23 2 3 5.13 25 17 73.7 73 42 13 33 66
Mike Wright Jr. R 33 3 5 5.16 21 12 66.3 70 38 9 31 47
Felix Paulino R 28 3 4 5.16 26 2 52.3 54 30 9 20 42
Declan Cronin R 25 2 3 5.16 44 1 45.3 47 26 6 21 31
Garrett Davila L 26 4 6 5.19 29 8 76.3 78 44 10 42 55
Scott Blewett R 27 5 8 5.19 24 20 102.3 111 59 16 46 69
Vince Velasquez R 31 3 5 5.20 28 14 81.3 79 47 16 33 81
Hunter Schryver L 28 1 2 5.22 34 0 39.7 40 23 6 23 33
Wes Benjamin L 29 3 4 5.24 18 13 67.0 73 39 10 31 50
John Parke L 28 5 7 5.25 24 22 116.7 132 68 19 38 68
Fraser Ellard L 25 2 2 5.25 42 0 48.0 48 28 7 29 40
Tobias Myers R 24 6 9 5.26 23 21 89.0 93 52 14 40 65
Brandon Finnegan L 30 2 2 5.31 30 2 39.0 39 23 6 24 35
Nicholas Padilla R 26 2 3 5.36 35 0 48.7 48 29 9 28 49
Dan Winkler R 33 2 2 5.40 41 0 38.3 33 23 5 26 37
Lincoln Henzman R 27 3 5 5.47 37 12 79.0 89 48 14 31 53
Yacksel Ríos R 30 2 4 5.49 34 1 39.3 37 24 6 25 36
Chase Solesky R 25 4 6 5.50 22 20 90.0 103 55 18 32 61
Norge Vera R 23 2 3 5.50 21 21 54.0 47 33 9 46 63
Anderson Severino L 28 2 4 5.54 38 0 37.3 35 23 5 28 36
Jhan Mariñez R 34 0 1 5.56 13 1 22.7 24 14 4 12 16
Matthew Thompson R 22 4 7 5.57 24 24 97.0 102 60 17 45 74
Trey Jeans L 27 2 3 5.58 30 1 40.3 41 25 8 25 40
Kaleb Roper R 27 3 4 5.66 25 11 70.0 76 44 14 35 59
Caleb Freeman R 25 1 2 5.79 28 0 28.0 28 18 5 18 26
Edgar Navarro R 25 2 3 5.79 41 0 46.7 45 30 7 31 42
Karan Patel R 26 2 5 6.07 30 4 46.0 46 31 9 33 45
Will Carter R 30 2 3 6.08 29 1 37.0 37 25 5 28 30
Will Kincanon R 27 1 2 6.16 24 0 30.7 32 21 7 18 29
Luke Shilling R 25 0 1 6.32 16 1 15.7 15 11 3 14 17
Jared Kelley R 21 3 5 6.33 23 23 75.3 79 53 14 57 56
Yoan Aybar L 25 2 3 6.41 40 0 39.3 39 28 7 32 35
Andrew Dalquist R 22 4 9 6.42 24 24 89.7 99 64 16 62 58
Tyler Johnson R 27 0 1 6.75 17 0 18.7 19 14 4 15 18

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Liam Hendriks 57.0 12.9 2.5 1.3 6.9% 35.2% .289 137 3.00 73 1.7
Aaron Bummer 51.0 9.5 3.7 0.5 9.8% 25.2% .278 136 3.21 74 1.1
Dylan Cease 176.0 11.1 3.6 1.1 9.7% 29.5% .281 126 3.55 79 3.6
Kendall Graveman 58.7 8.7 3.5 0.8 9.3% 23.0% .281 122 3.75 82 1.1
Garrett Crochet 48.7 11.3 5.2 0.9 13.1% 28.6% .287 117 3.77 86 0.6
Joe Kelly 36.3 10.9 4.7 0.7 11.9% 27.7% .292 116 3.62 86 0.4
Lance Lynn 131.7 9.0 2.4 1.2 6.4% 24.0% .292 111 3.86 90 2.0
Lucas Giolito 158.7 9.8 2.8 1.2 7.6% 26.0% .285 109 3.71 92 2.4
José Ruiz 58.7 9.5 4.0 1.1 10.3% 24.5% .290 108 3.97 92 0.3
Reynaldo López 97.3 8.7 2.8 1.1 7.4% 23.0% .287 104 3.84 96 1.3
Michael Kopech 108.3 9.2 3.7 1.3 9.6% 24.1% .276 102 4.30 98 1.5
Matt Foster 52.7 9.1 3.1 1.4 8.1% 23.8% .289 101 4.20 99 0.2
Tanner Banks 73.7 8.3 2.3 1.3 6.1% 21.9% .299 101 4.10 99 0.6
Kyle Crick 33.7 9.9 4.8 0.8 12.3% 25.3% .271 101 4.07 99 0.2
Jake Diekman 50.0 11.5 5.6 1.3 13.8% 28.6% .284 96 4.63 104 0.1
Johnny Cueto 144.0 5.9 2.3 1.4 6.0% 15.4% .294 96 4.69 104 1.5
Theo Denlinger 43.3 9.8 4.2 1.5 10.4% 24.5% .292 94 4.54 106 0.1
Mike Clevinger 114.0 8.1 3.2 1.4 8.2% 21.2% .285 94 4.58 106 1.1
Andrew Perez 55.0 8.8 3.8 1.3 9.7% 22.7% .287 94 4.55 106 0.1
Sean Burke 102.0 8.8 4.2 1.3 10.6% 22.2% .287 92 4.69 108 0.9
Sammy Peralta 55.7 8.6 3.2 1.5 8.3% 22.0% .286 92 4.70 109 0.0
Davis Martin 117.0 8.1 3.2 1.3 8.1% 20.7% .292 92 4.48 109 1.0
Jonathan Stiever 69.0 8.1 2.7 1.6 7.0% 20.7% .289 92 4.66 109 0.6
Nate Fisher 74.3 7.3 3.6 1.2 9.3% 18.5% .283 91 4.74 109 0.6
Vince Vannelle 41.7 8.2 4.8 1.3 11.5% 19.9% .288 91 4.79 110 0.0
Lane Ramsey 35.7 8.1 5.0 1.3 12.2% 19.5% .294 90 4.95 111 0.0
Bennett Sousa 43.0 8.8 3.8 1.5 9.5% 22.1% .288 90 4.71 112 -0.1
Zach Muckenhirn 48.3 8.0 4.5 1.3 11.1% 19.8% .288 89 4.75 112 -0.1
J.B. Olson 61.3 5.9 3.1 1.3 7.9% 15.0% .291 89 4.88 112 0.3
Kade McClure 85.0 7.6 3.0 1.5 7.7% 19.7% .292 89 4.73 113 0.5
Parker Markel 44.3 11.0 6.3 1.2 15.0% 26.2% .290 89 4.78 113 -0.1
Haylen Green 58.3 6.3 2.5 1.5 6.3% 16.3% .283 87 5.00 114 -0.1
Garrett Schoenle 75.7 8.0 4.0 1.4 10.1% 19.9% .282 86 5.03 116 0.4
Cristian Mena 99.0 8.1 3.9 1.5 9.7% 20.1% .292 86 4.92 116 0.6
Jason Bilous 93.3 8.7 5.1 1.3 12.5% 21.2% .292 86 5.00 116 0.6
Jimmy Lambert 60.7 8.8 4.5 1.6 11.0% 21.7% .287 86 5.15 117 0.2
Emilio Vargas 95.3 7.5 3.9 1.5 9.7% 18.7% .288 85 5.16 118 0.5
Kyle Kubat 90.0 6.3 3.8 1.4 9.5% 15.8% .291 85 5.14 118 0.4
Kohl Simas 73.7 8.1 4.0 1.6 10.1% 20.2% .286 84 5.04 119 0.4
Mike Wright Jr. 66.3 6.4 4.2 1.2 10.4% 15.8% .293 84 5.08 119 0.3
Felix Paulino 52.3 7.2 3.4 1.5 8.7% 18.3% .288 84 5.10 120 -0.1
Declan Cronin 45.3 6.2 4.2 1.2 10.3% 15.2% .289 84 5.03 120 -0.2
Garrett Davila 76.3 6.5 5.0 1.2 12.1% 15.8% .288 83 5.30 120 0.1
Scott Blewett 102.3 6.1 4.0 1.4 9.9% 14.8% .292 83 5.33 120 0.4
Vince Velasquez 81.3 9.0 3.7 1.8 9.4% 23.0% .286 83 5.08 120 0.2
Hunter Schryver 39.7 7.5 5.2 1.4 12.6% 18.0% .291 83 5.42 121 -0.3
Wes Benjamin 67.0 6.7 4.2 1.3 10.2% 16.5% .301 82 5.03 121 0.2
John Parke 116.7 5.2 2.9 1.5 7.4% 13.2% .294 82 5.24 122 0.5
Fraser Ellard 48.0 7.5 5.4 1.3 13.0% 17.9% .291 82 5.38 122 -0.3
Tobias Myers 89.0 6.6 4.0 1.4 10.1% 16.4% .288 82 5.19 122 0.4
Brandon Finnegan 39.0 8.1 5.5 1.4 13.4% 19.6% .295 81 5.28 123 -0.1
Nicholas Padilla 48.7 9.1 5.2 1.7 12.5% 21.9% .293 80 5.52 124 -0.4
Dan Winkler 38.3 8.7 6.1 1.2 14.9% 21.1% .272 80 5.34 125 -0.3
Lincoln Henzman 79.0 6.0 3.5 1.6 8.7% 14.9% .296 79 5.44 127 -0.1
Yacksel Ríos 39.3 8.2 5.7 1.4 13.7% 19.7% .282 79 5.44 127 -0.2
Chase Solesky 90.0 6.1 3.2 1.8 8.0% 15.2% .296 78 5.53 127 0.1
Norge Vera 54.0 10.5 7.7 1.5 17.6% 24.0% .284 78 5.54 127 0.1
Anderson Severino 37.3 8.7 6.8 1.2 15.8% 20.3% .291 78 5.54 128 -0.3
Jhan Mariñez 22.7 6.4 4.8 1.6 11.5% 15.4% .286 78 5.76 129 -0.1
Matthew Thompson 97.0 6.9 4.2 1.6 10.3% 16.9% .288 78 5.58 129 0.0
Trey Jeans 40.3 8.9 5.6 1.8 13.2% 21.1% .297 77 5.76 129 -0.4
Kaleb Roper 70.0 7.6 4.5 1.8 11.0% 18.5% .298 76 5.65 131 -0.1
Caleb Freeman 28.0 8.4 5.8 1.6 13.8% 20.0% .291 75 5.65 134 -0.3
Edgar Navarro 46.7 8.1 6.0 1.4 14.0% 18.9% .286 75 5.81 134 -0.6
Karan Patel 46.0 8.8 6.5 1.8 15.0% 20.5% .291 71 6.09 141 -0.5
Will Carter 37.0 7.3 6.8 1.2 15.8% 16.9% .291 71 5.96 141 -0.5
Will Kincanon 30.7 8.5 5.3 2.1 12.6% 20.3% .291 70 6.09 143 -0.6
Luke Shilling 15.7 9.8 8.0 1.7 18.4% 22.4% .293 68 6.34 146 -0.2
Jared Kelley 75.3 6.7 6.8 1.7 15.8% 15.5% .284 68 6.43 147 -0.5
Yoan Aybar 39.3 8.0 7.3 1.6 16.7% 18.2% .286 67 6.36 148 -0.7
Andrew Dalquist 89.7 5.8 6.2 1.6 14.4% 13.4% .289 67 6.45 149 -0.7
Tyler Johnson 18.7 8.7 7.2 1.9 16.1% 19.4% .288 64 6.58 156 -0.4

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Liam Hendriks Kirby Yates Alejandro Pena Robb Nen 2.5 0.6 1.81 6.24
Aaron Bummer Zack Britton Darold Knowles John Franco 1.6 0.5 2.44 4.21
Dylan Cease Bob Feller Ubaldo Jiménez Jim Maloney 4.8 2.0 2.86 4.21
Kendall Graveman Jeremy Jeffress Brad Brach Alex Colome 1.6 0.3 2.93 4.74
Garrett Crochet Scott Radinsky Jeff Kubenka Ed Vande Berg 0.9 0.1 2.80 5.23
Joe Kelly Ray Shore Ryne Duren Roger Nelson 0.9 0.0 2.86 4.65
Lance Lynn Gaylord Perry Rick Reuschel John Smoltz 2.9 1.1 3.22 4.75
Lucas Giolito Mike Witt Jack McDowell Steve Rogers 3.5 1.2 3.38 4.65
José Ruiz Juan Minaya Jacob Barnes Jason Isringhausen 0.7 -0.2 3.43 4.75
Reynaldo López Carlos Carrasco Zach McAllister Red Munger 1.9 0.4 3.63 5.02
Michael Kopech Sam Gray Buzz Capra Ernie Broglio 2.2 0.5 3.67 5.05
Matt Foster Talley Haines Don Williams Jack Crimian 0.6 -0.2 3.51 5.26
Tanner Banks Jorge Castillo Paul Kilgus Mike O’Connor 1.2 0.0 3.53 5.13
Kyle Crick Horacio Pina Bill Wilson Dave Sisler 0.5 -0.2 3.61 5.35
Jake Diekman Mike Remlinger Tippy Martinez John Hiller 0.9 -0.7 3.44 6.08
Johnny Cueto Larry Jackson Rick Reuschel Elmer Singleton 2.1 0.7 3.97 5.17
Theo Denlinger Dave Gerard Jason Shiell Brett Cammons 0.4 -0.3 3.86 5.47
Mike Clevinger Matt Garza Chris Bassitt Sam Gray 1.7 0.2 4.04 5.37
Andrew Perez Blaine Hardy Dick Luebke Dennis DeBarr 0.5 -0.3 3.97 5.29
Sean Burke Marty Clary Brandon Bielak Roy Smith 1.6 0.1 4.10 5.38
Sammy Peralta Tito Stewart Chris O’Grady Eddie Camacho 0.4 -0.5 3.95 5.54
Davis Martin Mitch Talbot Tim Pugh Zach McAllister 1.9 0.2 4.07 5.33
Jonathan Stiever Sean Snedeker Jim Musselwhite Eugene Matty 1.1 0.1 4.11 5.44
Nate Fisher Brian Tallet Travis Baptist Jerry Don Gleaton 1.1 0.0 4.10 5.47
Vince Vannelle Crucito Carvajal Steve Winfield Daniel Stange 0.3 -0.4 4.20 5.52
Lane Ramsey Rafael Chaves Daniel Stange Carlos Alfonso 0.2 -0.4 4.28 5.75
Bennett Sousa Shawn Barton Ken MacKenzie Jeff Kaiser 0.3 -0.5 4.07 5.56
Zach Muckenhirn Hunter Jones Jeremy Horst Kevin Hickey 0.3 -0.4 4.13 5.53
J.B. Olson Steve Gajkowski Randy Phillips Joe Lynch 0.7 -0.1 4.34 5.42
Kade McClure Paul Stewart Bill Wengert Brian Bass 1.1 -0.3 4.21 5.85
Parker Markel Jorge Julio Frank LaCorte Bob Babcock 0.4 -0.7 3.95 6.25
Haylen Green Kevin Ool Jim Patterson Brooks Dunn 0.3 -0.6 4.27 5.65
Garrett Schoenle David Mendoza D.J. Snelten Bob Tufts 0.9 -0.2 4.41 5.71
Cristian Mena Tim Dodd Ronnie Ventura Pete Hamm 1.2 -0.1 4.47 5.71
Jason Bilous Sammy Stewart Stephen Ruling Randy Bockus 1.1 -0.2 4.53 5.70
Jimmy Lambert Alex Wimmers George Throop Dusten Knight 0.7 -0.4 4.35 6.04
Emilio Vargas Troy Mattes Angel Ventura Jeremy Hall 1.1 -0.2 4.58 5.72
Kyle Kubat Matt Blank Niles Jordan Huck Flener 1.0 -0.2 4.59 5.82
Kohl Simas Doug Potestio Elmer Tessin Mauro Gozzo 0.9 -0.2 4.57 5.87
Mike Wright Jr. Rosman Garcia Bob Chakales Carlos Elizalde 0.6 -0.2 4.58 5.87
Felix Paulino Brandon Agamennone Bob Wells Brian Edmondson 0.3 -0.5 4.56 5.87
Declan Cronin Dick Thoenen Brad Blevins Robert Tenenini 0.1 -0.5 4.65 5.78
Garrett Davila Rick Borchers Rich Barnes John Thibdeau 0.7 -0.4 4.60 5.81
Scott Blewett Jerry Davie Josh Hall Jim Magrane 0.9 -0.2 4.77 5.73
Vince Velasquez Carl Willey Moe Drabowsky Bobby Bolin 0.8 -0.4 4.49 6.02
Hunter Schryver Anthony Ferrari Phil McCormick Jim Ellis 0.0 -0.7 4.70 6.10
Wes Benjamin Dick Libby Bobby Livingston Ryan Snare 0.5 -0.3 4.79 5.90
John Parke Justin Nicolino Matthew Kent Scott Diamond 1.1 -0.3 4.78 5.92
Fraser Ellard Mike Santiago Scott Rice Sean Fesh 0.0 -0.7 4.65 6.05
Tobias Myers Preston Larrison Wardell Starling Stolmy Pimentel 0.8 -0.2 4.81 5.83
Brandon Finnegan Scott Rice Julio Jimenez Mike Raczka 0.2 -0.6 4.55 6.56
Nicholas Padilla David Patton Sam Wolff Alec Zumwalt 0.0 -0.8 4.74 6.23
Dan Winkler Ramon Ramirez Rudy Hernandez Hal White 0.1 -0.7 4.57 6.64
Lincoln Henzman Johnny Omahen Stephen Faris Elliot Brown 0.4 -0.6 4.93 6.06
Yacksel Ríos Marc Pisciotta Adam Reifer Ken Ryan 0.1 -0.7 4.69 6.64
Chase Solesky Andy Polk Derell McCall Mario Santiago 0.6 -0.5 4.96 6.11
Norge Vera Pete Taylor Dave Harwell Frank Lucas 0.6 -0.6 4.70 6.58
Anderson Severino Angel Torres Hal Baird Mike Guilfoyle 0.0 -0.7 4.72 6.69
Jhan Mariñez Rube Ehrhardt Francisco Rodriguez Cecil Upshaw 0.1 -0.4 4.81 6.47
Matthew Thompson Jeff Schmidt Randy Messenger Jose Tapia 0.6 -0.6 5.09 6.18
Trey Jeans Scott Koerber Brad Kuntz Bob Cluck 0.0 -0.8 4.80 6.44
Kaleb Roper Kevin McGowan Jason Monti Frank Potestio 0.4 -0.7 5.02 6.41
Caleb Freeman Ricardo Aponte Jose Chue Brett Wise -0.1 -0.5 5.03 6.60
Edgar Navarro Rickey Lintz Kevin Meistickle Chuck Steward -0.3 -1.0 5.20 6.51
Karan Patel Darin Gillies Brad Schreiber Dan Foli -0.1 -0.9 5.31 7.05
Will Carter Mike Strahler Eder Llamas Mike Wegener -0.2 -0.9 5.20 7.12
Will Kincanon Chris Thompson Landon Stockman Joe Montgomery -0.3 -0.9 5.38 7.19
Luke Shilling Randy Huber Daniel Gorden Steve Larose -0.1 -0.4 5.54 7.79
Jared Kelley Rick Behenna Bill Kautzer Roger Hayward 0.0 -1.1 5.68 7.06
Yoan Aybar Mike Maitland Richard Dare Bryan Harper -0.4 -1.2 5.55 7.48
Andrew Dalquist Dave Wilhelmi Kohl Stewart Nate Minchey -0.2 -1.4 5.89 7.24
Tyler Johnson Mike Heinen Les Munns Landon Stockman -0.3 -0.7 5.93 8.35

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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BenZobrist4MVP
2 months ago

Wow, Steamer are ZiPS are quite far apart on Eloy Jimenez. 3.4 WAR with 134 wRC+ from Steamer and 1.2 WAR with 120 OPS+ from ZiPS. It is rare to see them so far apart on an established player.

BenZobrist4MVP
2 months ago
Reply to  BenZobrist4MVP

I remember last year they were very far apart on Miguel Sano, with Steamer much more optimistic. Of course, in that case he was even worse than ZiPS’ pessimistic projection. Hopefully things go much better for Jimenez this year…

Last edited 2 months ago by BenZobrist4MVP
lavarnway
2 months ago
Reply to  BenZobrist4MVP

As far as the wRC+ goes, BB% seems to be the biggest discrepancy between the two. Steamer has him keeping some of the gains he showed in 2022. ZiPS has more regression back closer to his career rate.

For WAR a lot of that is projected PAs.

paulclmember
2 months ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

Also, total projected position player WAR is currently way over what it should be – fWAR is supposed to hand out 570 WAR a season to position players, and the current total using the depth charts is 779. I think this is a combination of the depth charts’ usual over-optimism regarding playing time and the WAR calculations using last season’s unusually low offensive level as the baseline.

paulclmember
2 months ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

Unless I screwed something up, the current total using Steamer + depth charts is 1180. (I just summed the team numbers from the summary box on this page: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=5).That implies the average team is going to win about 87 games :).

sqf23
2 months ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

As a Sox fan I certainly hope their actual results will be better than ZiPS seems to predict for this year. It looks like the team depth charts predicts 5.4 more WAR overall than does ZiPS.

I’m really curious/optimistic about Eloy. He just turned 26, and he hasn’t played more than 84 games any season in the last 3 years. My guess is that all the injuries and lack of playing time during what should be developing years skews projections of his potential if healthy. Notably, when Eloy finally played more games at DH and got a long string of healthy at bats in the second half of last year, he produced huge numbers. In the 65 games he played after coming back from injury in the second half, his OPS was .948 and his OPS+ was 167.

My hope and belief is that if the Sox finally just play him at DH (and honestly never let him see the field), plus hopefully get a bit better injury-prevention from the training staff, he’ll continue to produce numbers much closer to his OPS+ in the second half of last year. Since Steamer only projects him for a wRC+ of 134 next year, I honestly wouldn’t be surprised at all if he ends up producing significantly more fWAR than the 3.4 Steamer projects. I know you philosophically don’t mix your subjective thoughts into ZiPS projections, which makes plenty of sense, but I’d still be interested to hear your subjective thoughts on that.

montrealmember
2 months ago
Reply to  BenZobrist4MVP

Yes I noticed that as well. Eloy on Zips looks average at best.

sogoodlooking
2 months ago
Reply to  BenZobrist4MVP

Impressive hitter who couldn’t stay in the lineup in 2021-22, which Steamer bypasses and gives 627 PA to, plus a BABIP in his best years that will be difficult to repeat have to be contributing to Steamer’s (excessive) optimism. I’m not sure where Steamer falls on defensive decline for player’s turning 26, but it wouldn’t surprise me if that’s all but ignored.

Last edited 2 months ago by sogoodlooking