2023 ZiPS Projections: Kansas City Royals

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Kansas City Royals.

Batters

Coming into the 2021 season, there were reasons to be optimistic about the future of Kansas City’s offense, with Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto, and Vinnie Pasquantino. Three of these four played well in the majors, but only one — and probably the one the Royals were themselves least high on, Pasquantino — really wowed offensively. Witt was solid, but far from amazing, and Melendez’s bat was mainly good because he plays a position that he may not be playing for very long. I guess what it comes down to is a simple question: outside of Pasquantino, who do you feel better about now than a year ago? The problem with the Royals is that I’m hard-pressed to give many names in response to that question.

KC’s minor league hitters didn’t come roaring out of the gate, which makes the challenges steeper for the next front office/manager. It’d be easy if Melendez had pushed Salvador Perez to permanent DH status or if Pratto blew everyone away at first, but neither really happened, so decisions have to be made. Except for Michael A. Taylor, the legacy veterans are pretty much gone, and while Taylor is frequently named as a possible trade candidate, if he were a car, he’s in a situation similar to that of a 1999 Ford Taurus: you’ll probably find a new home for him, but not someone who is going to offer much in return.

Can Pratto hit at the major league level? After all, he didn’t really hit at the minor league level in 2022. Can Melendez play catcher successfully? Is Witt a shortstop? The Royals have to answer these questions, and if they don’t make great strides into doing that in 2023, the season is probably a failure overall. At least they’ve moved on from Ryan O’Hearn. They’ll need to; of hitters yet to make their major league debut, ZiPS only sees Maikel Garcia as having a strong chance at a 10-WAR career.

Pitchers

Of all the pitching staffs in baseball, the Royals are surely one of them. I’m not sure I mean this as a compliment (I don’t), but when running the projections, they have the gentlest dropoff between their top five starting pitchers and their next five (or 10) starting pitchers of any team in baseball I’ve run so far. In other words, they employ Royals pitchers, but they have a generous reserve of them. The roster is so deep that ZiPS almost thinks that Jordan Lyles, the team’s biggest free-agent signing this winter, is one of the 10 best starting pitchers on the team!

ZiPS is sold on Brady Singer and precisely none of the team’s other starters with the possible exception of sorta prospect Angel Zerpa, who missed a lot of time last season with knee pain. Zack Greinke is still a candidate to return for another go, which would give the Royals another MLB-caliber starting pitcher. This is important because if teams don’t get 27 outs, the game never ends.

The bullpen is actually a more promising unit, with Scott Barlow, Dylan Coleman, Richard Lovelady, and Amir Garrett all at least comfortably above the league-average mark. The quality drops very quickly though, and the back of the bullpen puts Kansas City well down into the bottom 10 of bullpens, though the exact configuration of the relief corps is still partly unknown.

So, where do the Royals stand? Likely fighting it out at the bottom of the AL Central. This is a transitional time with a new owner who moved on from longtime executive Dayton Moore this winter. Is the new régime a continuation of the old one’s retro-mediocre management style? A placeholder for something better? A group that intends to modernize how the team is run? Nobody knows yet — another question the Royals need to answer urgently. The team’s current plan of being good a couple of times every two decades and hoping to catch lightning in a bottle in the playoffs is not my personal favorite management style.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Bobby Witt Jr. R 23 SS 611 565 88 150 35 5 22 86 35 134 25 7
Salvador Perez R 33 C 509 475 58 127 22 2 28 84 22 125 0 1
Vinnie Pasquantino L 25 DH 571 502 68 138 33 2 21 77 57 78 2 1
MJ Melendez L 24 C 543 482 71 117 27 3 24 78 54 142 2 4
Nicky Lopez L 28 2B 497 448 60 118 19 4 2 35 36 64 12 3
Maikel Garcia R 23 SS 548 500 74 128 27 3 6 52 41 107 19 5
Adalberto Mondesi B 27 SS 320 300 40 72 14 4 7 37 15 96 29 5
Michael A. Taylor R 32 CF 441 402 49 99 17 2 10 44 32 117 7 4
Drew Waters B 24 CF 509 464 67 114 27 5 11 54 40 159 13 4
Michael Massey L 25 2B 515 470 62 119 28 1 13 61 28 116 7 1
Jakson Reetz R 27 C 388 347 43 78 20 1 12 50 25 114 1 1
Nick Loftin R 24 CF 532 483 74 122 24 3 10 59 34 96 12 3
Tyler Gentry R 24 RF 432 379 50 95 18 2 12 60 38 116 4 3
Dairon Blanco R 30 CF 428 392 56 98 17 5 8 49 25 114 23 7
Kyle Isbel L 26 RF 419 382 52 91 17 5 9 47 28 100 12 6
Clay Dungan L 27 2B 481 436 57 106 20 4 5 48 32 91 11 3
Freddy Fermin R 28 C 322 292 37 71 14 0 8 35 26 66 0 1
Nick Pratto L 24 1B 550 480 69 109 24 4 20 71 58 184 6 3
Samad Taylor R 24 2B 345 308 45 74 15 2 8 36 29 93 16 5
Edward Olivares R 27 RF 395 361 53 95 17 2 10 46 25 75 8 5
Logan Porter R 27 1B 412 355 45 84 19 1 9 46 47 107 0 1
Nate Eaton R 26 RF 448 403 54 98 17 4 8 49 31 106 19 4
Parker Bates L 25 CF 290 263 26 57 12 3 5 30 20 83 6 3
Ivan Castillo B 28 SS 439 406 46 107 21 2 3 39 25 67 6 3
Brewer Hicklen R 27 RF 515 460 63 100 20 4 16 69 41 192 21 4
John Rave L 25 CF 448 403 51 91 14 2 10 45 38 135 10 3
Tucker Bradley L 25 LF 439 394 51 99 19 4 6 46 35 94 8 3
Jimmy Govern R 26 3B 293 272 31 65 18 1 6 34 14 62 3 1
Jose Briceno R 30 C 126 119 12 27 7 0 3 13 4 32 1 1
Peyton Wilson B 23 2B 367 333 43 73 14 2 8 42 24 104 10 2
Diego Hernandez L 22 CF 501 458 58 111 17 3 5 47 27 115 21 9
Jake Means R 27 3B 409 368 39 73 19 1 7 39 33 126 4 1
Morgan McCullough L 25 3B 335 296 29 64 13 2 4 32 28 96 3 4
CJ Alexander L 26 3B 428 404 44 89 19 3 13 42 20 122 8 2
Hunter Dozier R 31 1B 501 454 55 109 25 5 15 54 40 131 4 3
Tyler Tolbert R 25 SS 462 415 57 85 14 7 3 37 33 136 26 4
Rubendy Jaquez B 24 3B 228 214 25 51 9 3 1 17 10 47 6 3
Seuly Matias R 24 RF 370 332 39 63 15 4 11 44 27 149 3 1
Luca Tresh R 23 C 433 395 44 93 18 1 12 49 33 122 2 2
Gabriel Cancel R 26 2B 370 342 41 71 19 0 8 40 22 125 6 2
Dillan Shrum R 25 1B 368 323 30 62 12 1 10 47 30 147 1 1
Darryl Collins L 21 LF 366 322 30 73 12 4 1 27 34 75 5 2
Angelo Castellano R 28 SS 335 302 30 65 11 1 4 28 23 78 5 3
Herard Gonzalez B 22 2B 482 429 50 93 14 5 6 41 42 143 7 5
JaCoby Jones R 31 CF 333 307 31 65 16 1 7 33 21 122 3 2
Juan Carlos Negret R 24 RF 397 361 36 70 15 1 12 44 25 137 1 1
Shervyen Newton B 24 SS 429 390 43 72 16 2 7 39 29 161 1 1
Kale Emshoff R 25 C 363 330 26 62 14 0 7 38 24 146 1 1

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Bobby Witt Jr. 611 .265 .313 .462 110 .196 .313 -6 2.6 .329
Salvador Perez 509 .267 .310 .499 118 .232 .307 -8 2.4 .342
Vinnie Pasquantino 571 .275 .352 .474 125 .199 .290 0 2.4 .354
MJ Melendez 543 .243 .319 .461 111 .218 .294 -12 1.7 .334
Nicky Lopez 497 .263 .323 .337 83 .074 .304 9 1.7 .294
Maikel Garcia 548 .256 .310 .358 84 .102 .315 4 1.7 .292
Adalberto Mondesi 320 .240 .277 .383 79 .143 .330 7 1.5 .284
Michael A. Taylor 441 .246 .305 .373 86 .127 .324 8 1.4 .296
Drew Waters 509 .246 .310 .397 93 .151 .350 -1 1.3 .308
Michael Massey 515 .253 .304 .400 92 .147 .311 0 1.3 .304
Jakson Reetz 388 .225 .304 .392 90 .167 .299 0 1.2 .305
Nick Loftin 532 .253 .309 .377 88 .124 .297 1 1.1 .300
Tyler Gentry 432 .251 .331 .404 101 .153 .331 3 1.0 .320
Dairon Blanco 428 .250 .304 .380 87 .130 .333 1 1.0 .298
Kyle Isbel 419 .238 .299 .380 85 .141 .300 9 0.8 .295
Clay Dungan 481 .243 .305 .342 78 .099 .297 4 0.8 .286
Freddy Fermin 322 .243 .307 .373 87 .130 .289 -1 0.8 .299
Nick Pratto 550 .227 .317 .419 101 .192 .322 0 0.7 .319
Samad Taylor 345 .240 .313 .380 90 .140 .319 -1 0.7 .303
Edward Olivares 395 .263 .320 .404 98 .141 .308 1 0.7 .315
Logan Porter 412 .237 .337 .372 96 .135 .314 2 0.6 .316
Nate Eaton 448 .243 .308 .365 85 .122 .311 5 0.6 .296
Parker Bates 290 .217 .284 .342 72 .125 .297 6 0.6 .276
Ivan Castillo 439 .264 .307 .347 80 .084 .310 -1 0.6 .286
Brewer Hicklen 515 .217 .296 .383 85 .165 .333 3 0.5 .296
John Rave 448 .226 .298 .345 77 .119 .314 1 0.4 .284
Tucker Bradley 439 .251 .318 .365 88 .114 .316 1 0.3 .300
Jimmy Govern 293 .239 .288 .379 82 .140 .289 -1 0.2 .290
Jose Briceno 126 .227 .262 .361 69 .134 .286 0 0.0 .270
Peyton Wilson 367 .219 .286 .345 73 .126 .294 -3 -0.1 .279
Diego Hernandez 501 .242 .290 .325 70 .083 .314 0 -0.2 .272
Jake Means 409 .198 .276 .313 62 .114 .281 3 -0.2 .263
Morgan McCullough 335 .216 .297 .314 69 .098 .306 0 -0.2 .275
CJ Alexander 428 .220 .257 .379 72 .158 .283 -1 -0.2 .272
Hunter Dozier 501 .240 .305 .416 96 .176 .305 -7 -0.3 .312
Tyler Tolbert 462 .205 .273 .294 57 .089 .297 -3 -0.4 .253
Rubendy Jaquez 228 .238 .274 .322 64 .084 .301 -1 -0.4 .261
Seuly Matias 370 .190 .265 .358 70 .169 .302 3 -0.4 .272
Luca Tresh 433 .235 .298 .377 85 .142 .310 -16 -0.5 .295
Gabriel Cancel 370 .208 .262 .333 63 .126 .301 -1 -0.6 .260
Dillan Shrum 368 .192 .285 .328 69 .136 .313 2 -0.7 .275
Darryl Collins 366 .227 .305 .298 68 .071 .293 1 -0.7 .272
Angelo Castellano 335 .215 .278 .298 59 .083 .277 -5 -0.8 .258
Herard Gonzalez 482 .217 .289 .315 67 .098 .311 -4 -0.8 .268
JaCoby Jones 333 .212 .270 .339 67 .127 .326 -5 -0.8 .268
Juan Carlos Negret 397 .194 .254 .341 62 .147 .274 2 -1.1 .260
Shervyen Newton 429 .185 .250 .290 48 .105 .293 -2 -1.2 .241
Kale Emshoff 363 .188 .256 .294 51 .106 .311 -12 -1.8 .245

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Bobby Witt Jr. Brett Lawrie Marty McManus Jim Tabor
Salvador Perez Javy Lopez Alan Knicely Terry Steinbach
Vinnie Pasquantino Babe Young Wally Joyner Ron Fairly
MJ Melendez John Romano Darrell Porter Gene Tenace
Nicky Lopez Milt Graff Billy Bates Irving Falu
Maikel Garcia Jason Bartlett Brian Roberts Mauricio Dubon
Adalberto Mondesi Andrew Velazquez Mariano Duncan Jason Smith
Michael A. Taylor Gary Thurman Tom Saffell James Ferguson
Drew Waters Josh Lowe Aaron Cunningham Junior Felix 펠릭스
Michael Massey Syd O’Brien Tito Fuentes Josh Rutledge
Jakson Reetz Nick Hundley Dave Roberts Jon Debus
Nick Loftin Rontrez Johnson Tom Spencer Matt Szczur
Tyler Gentry Gene Locklear Joe Charboneau Don Reynolds
Dairon Blanco Adam Engel Matt Lipka Gary Thurman
Kyle Isbel Ryan Kalish Matt Forgatch Jason Martin
Clay Dungan Jim Thomas Wilmer Difo Manny Patel
Freddy Fermin Walt McKeel Bill Lindsey Jim Foster
Nick Pratto Bobby Brooks Brad Komminsk Brandon Allen
Samad Taylor Antonio Perez Brett Auerbach Darnell Sweeney
Edward Olivares Jerry White Greg Briley Dell Alston
Logan Porter Vince Belnome Don Barbara Alex Hassan
Nate Eaton Milt Cuyler Todd Donovan Winston Ficklin
Parker Bates Connor Oliver Hal Grote B.J. Cashman
Ivan Castillo Luis Figueroa KC Serna Yhoxian Medina
Brewer Hicklen Keon Broxton Donn Clendenon Gary Redus
John Rave Michael Saunders Kevin Koslofski Robert Spinner
Tucker Bradley Jim Wohlford Dave Martinez Mark Payton
Jimmy Govern Nate Grindell Dave Meliah Juan Lopez
Jose Briceno Jeff Howell Rick Wrona John Marzano
Peyton Wilson Albert Cartwright Jose Garcia Larry Beardman
Diego Hernandez Rafael Landestoy Angel Pagan Brian Hunter
Jake Means Randall Shelley Mike Sodders Ken Bonifay
Morgan McCullough Steve Bethea Danny Simons Chase Fontaine
CJ Alexander Robert Watson Angel Rosa Jayson Drobiak
Hunter Dozier George Kernek Bruce Campbell Bob Lennon
Tyler Tolbert Jose Morban Nelson Castro Edwin Maysonet
Rubendy Jaquez Johan Garcia Smelin Perez Richard Gunn
Seuly Matias Dan Cataline David Prest Thomas Henner
Luca Tresh Terry McGriff John Gibbons B.J. Waszgis
Gabriel Cancel Mike Benjamin Charles Bell Donaldo Mendez
Dillan Shrum Evan Edwards John Fagan Rick Nelson
Darryl Collins Larry O’Brien Adolph Pinto Mike Santos
Angelo Castellano Hanley Frias Brian Bocock Mike Ramsey
Herard Gonzalez Adam Davis Buddy Biancalana Edwin Rodriguez
JaCoby Jones Anthony Sanders Neill Sheridan Melky Mesa
Juan Carlos Negret Jim Dickerson Mike Meggers Sean Moore
Shervyen Newton Herbert Newman Gary Davenport Ron Boyer
Kale Emshoff Dan Whitmer Andy Hall Steve Jackson

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Bobby Witt Jr. .295 .342 .523 132 4.4 .241 .289 .413 91 1.1
Salvador Perez .298 .339 .558 142 3.9 .240 .281 .438 97 1.1
Vinnie Pasquantino .304 .378 .530 147 3.9 .249 .324 .424 107 1.2
MJ Melendez .273 .347 .518 133 3.2 .213 .286 .397 90 0.3
Nicky Lopez .287 .350 .374 99 2.7 .237 .298 .309 68 0.7
Maikel Garcia .282 .337 .402 100 2.8 .230 .284 .321 66 0.4
Adalberto Mondesi .275 .305 .453 103 2.5 .215 .247 .329 57 0.6
Michael A. Taylor .279 .336 .421 106 2.5 .218 .277 .319 65 0.3
Drew Waters .278 .340 .451 115 2.7 .217 .279 .344 73 0.0
Michael Massey .279 .331 .449 110 2.4 .229 .281 .355 74 0.1
Jakson Reetz .259 .334 .446 111 2.2 .195 .273 .342 67 0.2
Nick Loftin .283 .336 .425 107 2.4 .223 .285 .331 69 -0.1
Tyler Gentry .277 .356 .449 119 1.9 .215 .307 .347 79 -0.1
Dairon Blanco .282 .332 .433 108 2.1 .225 .278 .332 68 0.0
Kyle Isbel .263 .323 .426 103 1.8 .214 .273 .340 69 0.0
Clay Dungan .270 .332 .385 96 1.9 .218 .276 .301 60 -0.2
Freddy Fermin .281 .343 .431 112 1.7 .211 .279 .322 67 0.0
Nick Pratto .255 .345 .484 123 2.3 .196 .285 .353 79 -0.7
Samad Taylor .263 .337 .433 108 1.5 .212 .288 .335 71 0.0
Edward Olivares .294 .346 .456 116 1.5 .237 .293 .348 76 -0.5
Logan Porter .263 .366 .420 114 1.6 .209 .311 .324 77 -0.3
Nate Eaton .268 .334 .405 101 1.5 .217 .282 .322 67 -0.4
Parker Bates .248 .317 .396 92 1.3 .186 .255 .294 50 -0.2
Ivan Castillo .289 .332 .386 96 1.5 .236 .279 .305 62 -0.4
Brewer Hicklen .243 .322 .441 107 2.0 .187 .267 .325 63 -0.8
John Rave .253 .327 .399 95 1.5 .194 .271 .299 57 -0.7
Tucker Bradley .279 .342 .405 103 1.2 .227 .291 .326 72 -0.6
Jimmy Govern .270 .317 .440 107 1.1 .208 .256 .333 61 -0.5
Jose Briceno .262 .296 .427 95 0.4 .199 .234 .314 51 -0.3
Peyton Wilson .246 .313 .404 96 0.9 .191 .260 .308 57 -0.9
Diego Hernandez .265 .313 .361 85 0.8 .216 .265 .293 55 -1.0
Jake Means .226 .305 .364 82 0.9 .167 .246 .266 42 -1.2
Morgan McCullough .243 .326 .368 89 0.7 .186 .270 .269 51 -0.9
CJ Alexander .243 .280 .439 92 0.9 .193 .232 .330 52 -1.3
Hunter Dozier .268 .330 .463 114 0.8 .212 .278 .359 75 -1.6
Tyler Tolbert .227 .297 .335 73 0.6 .176 .244 .254 38 -1.4
Rubendy Jaquez .273 .306 .367 84 0.2 .206 .242 .267 40 -1.0
Seuly Matias .217 .294 .416 91 0.5 .159 .238 .304 48 -1.4
Luca Tresh .266 .325 .427 105 0.5 .209 .271 .327 67 -1.6
Gabriel Cancel .233 .288 .386 80 0.3 .179 .231 .281 40 -1.6
Dillan Shrum .220 .313 .379 87 0.2 .162 .257 .276 48 -1.6
Darryl Collins .263 .339 .352 91 0.3 .194 .275 .253 47 -1.5
Angelo Castellano .241 .305 .339 78 0.0 .190 .255 .262 43 -1.4
Herard Gonzalez .245 .317 .362 86 0.3 .192 .266 .273 49 -1.9
JaCoby Jones .245 .304 .396 91 0.2 .181 .238 .291 46 -1.7
Juan Carlos Negret .222 .282 .391 82 0.0 .166 .227 .289 44 -1.9
Shervyen Newton .211 .275 .332 66 -0.3 .159 .224 .247 31 -2.1
Kale Emshoff .219 .284 .337 69 -1.0 .157 .227 .244 31 -2.8

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Scott Barlow R 30 5 4 3.59 65 0 67.7 59 27 9 24 78
Richard Lovelady L 27 2 1 3.68 29 0 29.3 29 12 2 9 25
Dylan Coleman R 26 3 4 3.82 61 0 63.7 53 27 7 30 72
Brady Singer R 26 7 8 3.96 27 25 143.3 138 63 16 41 135
Amir Garrett L 31 2 2 4.09 57 0 44.0 37 20 4 24 49
Josh Dye L 26 3 4 4.12 43 4 59.0 60 27 7 19 47
Andres Nunez R 27 4 5 4.12 49 0 63.3 61 29 6 20 56
Anthony Misiewicz L 28 4 5 4.13 44 7 65.3 66 30 8 20 58
Zack Greinke R 39 7 8 4.19 26 26 139.7 153 65 19 31 86
Angel Zerpa L 23 5 7 4.25 27 27 101.7 104 48 11 36 76
Mike Mayers R 31 2 3 4.30 35 7 69.0 68 33 9 27 62
Josh Staumont R 29 3 3 4.31 47 2 48.0 41 23 5 28 53
Andres Sotillet R 26 2 4 4.40 41 1 57.3 59 28 6 27 45
Jose Cuas R 29 3 5 4.44 55 0 52.7 53 26 6 21 44
T.J. Sikkema L 24 4 4 4.44 22 21 81.0 78 40 10 28 72
Taylor Clarke R 30 3 3 4.52 38 5 61.7 62 31 9 19 53
Drew Parrish L 25 6 9 4.53 24 22 107.3 111 54 14 43 79
Kris Bubic L 25 6 9 4.55 27 24 128.7 130 65 17 52 111
Andrew Hoffmann R 23 6 8 4.56 23 23 106.7 112 54 13 39 79
Alec Marsh R 25 6 9 4.60 23 23 109.7 110 56 15 48 102
Emilio Marquez L 25 5 6 4.61 29 2 68.3 72 35 11 25 59
Jonathan Bowlan R 26 2 4 4.61 16 16 66.3 74 34 10 19 48
Max Castillo R 24 5 6 4.61 26 20 105.3 108 54 14 41 86
Brad Keller R 27 7 11 4.65 28 21 127.7 132 66 16 51 98
Austin Cox L 26 5 6 4.66 24 20 119.7 133 62 15 45 74
Cody Poteet R 28 3 4 4.67 17 13 69.3 70 36 11 26 59
Nick Wittgren R 32 2 3 4.69 39 0 40.3 41 21 5 13 32
Jonathan Heasley R 26 6 9 4.69 27 26 126.7 129 66 18 46 98
Daniel Lynch L 26 6 9 4.70 26 26 122.7 131 64 18 45 110
Ryan Yarbrough L 31 5 8 4.76 24 15 109.7 117 58 15 25 78
Marcelo Martinez L 26 5 7 4.80 25 18 101.3 106 54 15 41 83
Jace Vines R 28 2 4 4.80 27 3 45.0 44 24 5 25 39
Daniel Mengden R 30 5 8 4.80 25 17 99.3 105 53 13 45 74
Arodys Vizcaíno R 32 0 0 4.81 28 0 24.3 23 13 3 13 25
Walter Pennington L 25 3 5 4.84 32 1 57.7 61 31 6 25 40
Jackson Kowar R 26 5 9 4.88 24 20 99.7 103 54 13 44 91
Jordan Lyles R 32 7 12 4.88 26 26 145.7 160 79 24 45 113
Ryan Weiss R 26 3 4 4.90 35 7 71.7 80 39 10 25 53
Adrian Alcantara R 23 5 8 4.93 23 17 102.3 109 56 15 38 79
Patrick Halligan R 23 3 4 4.94 25 4 62.0 72 34 9 15 34
Jacob Wallace R 24 4 4 5.36 44 0 48.7 45 29 7 33 53
Anthony Veneziano L 25 5 7 4.98 22 21 103.0 108 57 14 50 85
Carlos Hernández R 26 3 6 5.03 33 14 91.3 95 51 12 40 69
Collin Snider R 27 3 5 5.03 51 0 53.7 58 30 6 24 36
Zach Haake R 26 2 3 5.03 22 9 53.7 57 30 7 26 40
Yefri Del Rosario R 23 3 6 5.09 41 3 69.0 74 39 9 30 45
Dante Biasi L 25 3 6 5.09 21 11 70.7 72 40 9 42 58
Will Klein R 23 1 3 5.11 31 2 49.3 47 28 6 37 50
Nathan Webb R 25 2 4 5.11 25 3 44.0 46 25 6 24 39
Jonah Dipoto R 26 1 2 5.13 35 0 52.7 49 30 6 37 51
Charlie Neuweiler R 24 4 6 5.13 23 15 80.7 91 46 10 37 49
Christian Chamberlain L 23 1 3 5.17 31 4 47.0 44 27 6 33 49
Ronald Bolanos R 26 3 5 5.21 29 11 74.3 77 43 10 41 58
Eric Skoglund L 30 2 5 5.33 15 11 54.0 63 32 8 18 30
Kasey Kalich R 25 3 5 5.36 34 0 43.7 45 26 5 31 35
Brooks Kriske R 29 1 3 5.40 33 0 35.0 33 21 6 20 39
Sam Freeman L 36 1 2 5.56 29 0 34.0 38 21 5 22 25
Zach Willeman R 27 2 5 5.68 36 1 52.3 56 33 8 32 43
Noah Murdock R 24 2 5 5.70 17 16 66.3 73 42 9 37 43
Stephen Woods R 28 2 3 5.76 30 3 54.7 58 35 8 43 46
Asa Lacy L 24 2 4 5.93 17 10 41.0 38 27 6 30 40

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Scott Barlow 67.7 10.4 3.2 1.2 8.4% 27.3% .292 121 3.73 83 0.9
Richard Lovelady 29.3 7.7 2.8 0.6 7.2% 20.0% .307 118 3.46 85 0.3
Dylan Coleman 63.7 10.2 4.2 1.0 10.8% 25.9% .286 114 3.92 88 0.6
Brady Singer 143.3 8.5 2.6 1.0 6.8% 22.4% .300 110 3.81 91 2.2
Amir Garrett 44.0 10.0 4.9 0.8 12.3% 25.1% .292 106 3.88 94 0.2
Josh Dye 59.0 7.2 2.9 1.1 7.5% 18.5% .296 105 4.17 95 0.6
Andres Nunez 63.3 8.0 2.8 0.9 7.4% 20.7% .299 105 3.99 95 0.3
Anthony Misiewicz 65.3 8.0 2.8 1.1 7.1% 20.6% .304 105 3.93 95 0.7
Zack Greinke 139.7 5.5 2.0 1.2 5.2% 14.4% .294 104 4.40 97 1.9
Angel Zerpa 101.7 6.7 3.2 1.0 8.1% 17.1% .296 102 4.25 98 1.4
Mike Mayers 69.0 8.1 3.5 1.2 9.0% 20.7% .296 101 4.36 99 0.6
Josh Staumont 48.0 9.9 5.3 0.9 13.1% 24.9% .290 101 4.17 99 0.2
Andres Sotillet 57.3 7.1 4.2 0.9 10.5% 17.4% .301 99 4.46 101 0.2
Jose Cuas 52.7 7.5 3.6 1.0 9.1% 19.0% .299 98 4.50 102 0.1
T.J. Sikkema 81.0 8.0 3.1 1.1 8.1% 20.9% .292 98 4.39 102 0.9
Taylor Clarke 61.7 7.7 2.8 1.3 7.2% 20.0% .293 96 4.35 104 0.3
Drew Parrish 107.3 6.6 3.6 1.2 9.1% 16.7% .292 96 4.75 104 1.1
Kris Bubic 128.7 7.8 3.6 1.2 9.3% 19.8% .298 95 4.50 105 1.2
Andrew Hoffmann 106.7 6.7 3.3 1.1 8.4% 16.9% .298 95 4.44 105 1.1
Alec Marsh 109.7 8.4 3.9 1.2 9.9% 21.0% .303 94 4.52 106 1.0
Emilio Marquez 68.3 7.8 3.3 1.4 8.3% 19.7% .302 94 4.66 106 0.2
Jonathan Bowlan 66.3 6.5 2.6 1.4 6.6% 16.6% .305 94 4.62 106 0.6
Max Castillo 105.3 7.3 3.5 1.2 8.9% 18.6% .297 94 4.53 106 0.9
Brad Keller 127.7 6.9 3.6 1.1 9.1% 17.4% .297 93 4.56 107 1.0
Austin Cox 119.7 5.6 3.4 1.1 8.5% 13.9% .300 93 4.77 107 1.1
Cody Poteet 69.3 7.7 3.4 1.4 8.6% 19.5% .291 93 4.77 108 0.6
Nick Wittgren 40.3 7.1 2.9 1.1 7.5% 18.5% .295 93 4.29 108 0.0
Jonathan Heasley 126.7 7.0 3.3 1.3 8.3% 17.8% .290 93 4.73 108 1.1
Daniel Lynch 122.7 8.1 3.3 1.3 8.3% 20.3% .312 92 4.47 108 1.0
Ryan Yarbrough 109.7 6.4 2.1 1.2 5.4% 16.8% .297 91 4.44 110 0.7
Marcelo Martinez 101.3 7.4 3.6 1.3 9.2% 18.5% .299 90 4.74 111 0.8
Jace Vines 45.0 7.8 5.0 1.0 12.1% 18.9% .295 90 4.86 111 0.1
Daniel Mengden 99.3 6.7 4.1 1.2 10.1% 16.7% .299 90 4.78 111 0.7
Arodys Vizcaíno 24.3 9.2 4.8 1.1 12.1% 23.4% .303 90 4.43 111 0.0
Walter Pennington 57.7 6.2 3.9 0.9 9.7% 15.4% .301 90 4.63 111 0.0
Jackson Kowar 99.7 8.2 4.0 1.2 9.8% 20.2% .309 89 4.56 112 0.6
Jordan Lyles 145.7 7.0 2.8 1.5 7.1% 17.8% .303 89 4.77 112 1.0
Ryan Weiss 71.7 6.7 3.1 1.3 7.9% 16.7% .310 89 4.62 113 0.2
Adrian Alcantara 102.3 6.9 3.3 1.3 8.4% 17.4% .299 88 4.83 113 0.6
Patrick Halligan 62.0 4.9 2.2 1.3 5.5% 12.5% .300 88 4.81 114 0.1
Jacob Wallace 48.7 9.8 6.1 1.3 14.5% 23.2% .297 84 5.25 119 -0.2
Anthony Veneziano 103.0 7.4 4.4 1.2 10.8% 18.3% .303 87 4.96 115 0.6
Carlos Hernández 91.3 6.8 3.9 1.2 9.8% 16.9% .295 86 4.83 116 0.3
Collin Snider 53.7 6.0 4.0 1.0 10.0% 15.0% .301 86 4.83 116 -0.2
Zach Haake 53.7 6.7 4.4 1.2 10.7% 16.5% .299 86 4.92 116 0.2
Yefri Del Rosario 69.0 5.9 3.9 1.2 9.7% 14.5% .294 85 5.07 117 -0.1
Dante Biasi 70.7 7.4 5.3 1.1 13.0% 18.0% .297 85 5.16 117 0.3
Will Klein 49.3 9.1 6.8 1.1 15.9% 21.5% .301 85 5.02 118 -0.1
Nathan Webb 44.0 8.0 4.9 1.2 11.7% 18.9% .308 85 4.99 118 -0.1
Jonah Dipoto 52.7 8.7 6.3 1.0 15.0% 20.7% .295 85 5.09 118 -0.3
Charlie Neuweiler 80.7 5.5 4.1 1.1 10.0% 13.3% .303 85 5.15 118 0.3
Christian Chamberlain 47.0 9.4 6.3 1.1 14.7% 21.9% .299 84 5.03 119 -0.1
Ronald Bolanos 74.3 7.0 5.0 1.2 11.9% 16.9% .296 83 5.28 120 0.1
Eric Skoglund 54.0 5.0 3.0 1.3 7.5% 12.5% .301 81 5.25 123 0.0
Kasey Kalich 43.7 7.2 6.4 1.0 14.9% 16.8% .301 81 5.37 123 -0.4
Brooks Kriske 35.0 10.0 5.1 1.5 12.3% 24.1% .297 80 5.04 124 -0.4
Sam Freeman 34.0 6.6 5.8 1.3 13.7% 15.5% .308 78 5.62 128 -0.3
Zach Willeman 52.3 7.4 5.5 1.4 13.1% 17.6% .304 76 5.50 131 -0.6
Noah Murdock 66.3 5.8 5.0 1.2 12.0% 14.0% .298 76 5.70 131 -0.1
Stephen Woods 54.7 7.6 7.1 1.3 16.1% 17.2% .305 75 5.90 133 -0.4
Asa Lacy 41.0 8.8 6.6 1.3 15.2% 20.2% .286 73 6.03 137 -0.2

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Scott Barlow Wade Davis Guillermo Mota Mychal Givens 1.6 0.1 2.79 4.87
Richard Lovelady Bob Allen Charles Valley Ed Pruitt 0.5 0.1 3.25 4.37
Dylan Coleman Doug Bochtler Ricky Bottalico Lance McCullers 1.2 -0.1 3.14 4.62
Brady Singer Homer Bailey Wally Burnette Marcus Stroman 3.2 1.4 3.39 4.47
Amir Garrett Hunter Cervenka David Purcey Ryan Buchter 0.6 -0.4 3.36 5.27
Josh Dye Jimmy Reyes Dave Stapleton Kenny Roberts 1.0 0.1 3.47 4.91
Andres Nunez Mike Christopher Cecil Upshaw Randy St. Claire 0.9 -0.2 3.43 4.94
Anthony Misiewicz Craig Skok Travis Radke Lester Clinkscales 1.2 0.2 3.38 4.94
Zack Greinke Larry Jackson Kyle Lohse Greg Maddux 2.5 1.2 3.77 4.73
Angel Zerpa Marco Tovar John Bohnet Paul Lindblad 1.9 0.7 3.80 4.88
Mike Mayers Jim Coates Mark Leiter Bill Kelso 1.1 0.1 3.72 4.93
Josh Staumont Kyle Barraclough Dave Campbell Bob Humphreys 0.7 -0.3 3.50 5.30
Andres Sotillet Michael Meyerrose Mike DeJean Matt Smith 0.5 -0.3 3.94 5.09
Jose Cuas Ross Wolf 울프 Charlie Mitchell Ramon Troncoso 0.5 -0.4 3.89 5.25
T.J. Sikkema Jeff Morris Gary Dotter Taylor Sinclair 1.4 0.3 3.94 5.11
Taylor Clarke Alfredo Figaro 피가로 Blake Hawksworth John Wasdin 0.9 -0.2 3.84 5.31
Drew Parrish Sam Howard Jonathan Dziedzic Jim Shellenback 1.7 0.5 4.07 5.05
Kris Bubic Jalen Beeks Shawn Morimando Sean West 2.1 0.4 4.01 5.17
Andrew Hoffmann Chad Rogers Jeff Marquez Jose Guzman 1.7 0.5 4.09 5.05
Alec Marsh John Van Benschoten Colby Lewis Sean Murphy 1.7 0.2 4.07 5.28
Emilio Marquez Jeffry Antigua Will Latimer Scott Bailes 0.7 -0.3 4.02 5.40
Jonathan Bowlan Mike Zamba Kris Hanson Don Lemon 0.9 0.2 4.17 5.28
Max Castillo Jeff Peterek Dennis Springer Collin Balester 벨레스터 1.5 0.2 4.15 5.19
Brad Keller Jimmy Nelson Lucas Harrell 루카스 Tom Koehler 1.7 0.2 4.17 5.31
Austin Cox Larry Casian Neal Heaton Kyle Hart 1.7 0.3 4.25 5.28
Cody Poteet Vic Keen Brett Backlund Alan Foster 1.0 0.1 4.07 5.41
Nick Wittgren Miguel Socolovich Jack Lamabe T.J. Mathews 0.3 -0.3 3.94 5.40
Jonathan Heasley Wade Davis Taylor Clarke Jim Slaton 1.9 0.3 4.19 5.28
Daniel Lynch Don Orwiler Emerson Unzicker Clarence Peerenboom 1.7 0.0 4.22 5.55
Ryan Yarbrough Mark Hendrickson Carlos Perez Scott Diamond 다이아몬드 1.4 0.1 4.18 5.36
Marcelo Martinez Bruce Zimmermann Steve Bast Ben Braymer 1.4 0.0 4.29 5.54
Jace Vines David Gourieux Bill Piercy Rick Greene 0.5 -0.3 4.14 5.55
Daniel Mengden Omar Olivares Mike Romano 로마노 George Bamberger 1.3 0.0 4.24 5.43
Arodys Vizcaíno Luis Aloma Bob Babcock Dave Baldwin 0.2 -0.3 3.93 6.23
Walter Pennington Cole St. Clair Kevin Ohme Steve Parker 0.3 -0.4 4.33 5.38
Jackson Kowar Spencer Turnbull Sean Murphy Terry Sheehan 1.3 -0.1 4.34 5.50
Jordan Lyles Earl Escalante Brett Tomko Bob Snyder 1.9 -0.1 4.33 5.62
Ryan Weiss Matt Schwager Nick McCurdy Todd Blyleven 0.7 -0.2 4.28 5.55
Adrian Alcantara Tyson Miller Bo Takahashi Mike Misuraca 1.2 0.0 4.44 5.52
Patrick Halligan Gordon Chretien Chris Lein C.J. Fick 0.4 -0.3 4.40 5.43
Jacob Wallace Frank Snook Barry Jones Andres Berumen 0.2 -0.7 4.64 6.33
Anthony Veneziano Justin Hampson Brandon Waddell Dave Owen 1.2 -0.1 4.47 5.59
Carlos Hernández Drew VerHagen Jeff Samardzija Jimmy Yacabonis 0.8 -0.3 4.55 5.71
Collin Snider Tyler Knigge Steve Smith Gary Serum 0.1 -0.6 4.54 5.70
Zach Haake Ryan Arrowood Raymundo Pulido Eddie Mathews 0.5 -0.2 4.56 5.72
Yefri Del Rosario Oswaldo Martinez Enemencio Pacheco Ryan Arrowood 0.3 -0.5 4.57 5.67
Dante Biasi John Kilner John Boyle James Houser 0.7 -0.3 4.54 5.82
Will Klein Raul Carrillo Logan White Alan Mills 0.3 -0.6 4.41 6.00
Nathan Webb Gene Escat Greg Johnson David Carpenter 0.2 -0.4 4.60 5.84
Jonah Dipoto Joe Valentine Chuck Machemehl Jeff Nelson 0.1 -0.8 4.51 6.12
Charlie Neuweiler Brad James Jackie Davidson Russ Savickas 0.7 -0.2 4.71 5.63
Christian Chamberlain Christian Meza Kenny Esposito Kevin Joyce 0.3 -0.6 4.48 6.17
Ronald Bolanos Alex Maestri 마에스트리 Daniel Neville Daniel Corcino 0.5 -0.5 4.70 5.95
Eric Skoglund Jason Mackintosh Brad Mumma Demetrio Gutierrez 0.3 -0.3 4.87 5.89
Kasey Kalich Michael McCammon Oscar Verdugo Fabio Castillo 카스티요 0.0 -0.7 4.78 6.19
Brooks Kriske Larry Gable Ruben Flores Whit Wyatt 0.0 -0.8 4.67 6.60
Sam Freeman Brian Duensing Ron Villone Ricardo Rincon 0.0 -0.8 4.58 7.07
Zach Willeman Jose Rosario Tony Vocca Craig Molldrem -0.2 -1.1 5.09 6.72
Noah Murdock Gan Quan Lay Batista David Warmbrod 0.3 -0.5 5.21 6.32
Stephen Woods Steve Martin Nick Pasquale Jarod Juelsgaard 0.0 -1.1 5.06 6.89
Asa Lacy Ron Leach Ron Crook Gil Blanco 0.1 -0.6 5.26 6.95

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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lavarnway
28 days ago

I watched Michael Massey hit a bomb deep into Arkansas night last summer while playing for the AA Arkansas Travelers.