2023 ZiPS Projections: San Francisco Giants

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the San Francisco Giants.

Batters

The Giants are a good team. They certainly didn’t feel like one for much of the middle portion of last season, but after a disappointing home sweep by the rival Dodgers in mid-September, they mopped up the Rockies and Diamondbacks and banked enough wins to get back to the .500 mark. Bringing in Michael Conforto as a decent starter/reclamation project meaningfully upgrades the outfield, and the Mitch Haniger signing was practically a bargain for a player who could be a top-tier designated hitter again if healthy. There’s a real solidity to the roster; no one on the infield has an impressive projection, but they have a lot of those guys on hand. Without even being aggressive, there are six or seven players on the team who could take one of the non-first base infield jobs and be at least passably adequate in the role. The problem here and in the outfield, however, is that the Giants can’t combine their 1.5-to-2.5 WAR guys together into three-to-four WAR players like piles of Legos. You could go full horror movie and try to sew David Villar to Wilmer Flores, but you won’t get an All-Star in the mix, just a couple of very angry players, an arbitration case, and a visit from the local constabulary. Platoons don’t really count here, either, as you can’t get a thousand plate appearances from a single platoon!

It’s not that Giants didn’t try. They were, after all, very close to inking Aaron Judge to a monster deal, talked seriously with pretty much every big free agent hitter out there, and were even the prospective employer of Carlos Correa before all of the drama that ended with the star shortstop returning to the Twins. So unlike a team with a need that it simply didn’t address, the Giants were cognizant of the weak part of their team — the lack of a big star to build around offensively — and tried very hard to correct that situation. The problem is that when the season starts, there’s no credit given for attempted WAR. Whether you fail to land a star after giving it the ol’ college try or because you’re the Cincinnati Reds, the result is the same: that player wearing someone else’s uniform.

The Giants are solid just about everywhere (ZiPS is uneasy at catcher) and they have depth at nearly every position should injuries strike. But they don’t have a Judge or Correa as the centerpiece of their roster. Right now, that’s the difference between them and their NL West rivals in San Diego and Los Angeles.

Pitchers

As with the offense, ZiPS really likes the team’s options in both the rotation and the bullpen. One could hardly call Logan Webb a disappointment, but it feels like a Cy Young-esque season is lurking just beneath the surface, and he still has excellent breakout odds in the projections. Behind Webb, ZiPS sees a veritable sea of number-two to number-four starters, more than enough to weather any reasonable storm and a deeper group than those of either of the Giants’ two top divisional rivals. Kyle Harrison’s solid projection shouldn’t be a surprise given that he was the fifth-ranked pitcher on the ZiPS Top 100 prospects last year and performed well in the Eastern League, which, like most other minor leagues, has become far more hitter-friendly recently. Sure, it would be nice if he lost a walk per nine off his stat line, but he’s just 21. The Ross Stripling signing didn’t get a lot of press, but he was a big reason why the Blue Jays survived the loss of Hyun Jin Ryu to injury and José Berríos to at least temporary mediocrification. It’s possible to value versatility too much, but Stripling is one of the few true swingmen in baseball today.

Probably more surprising is the projection for Keaton Winn, who had an impressive comeback campaign after basically losing two seasons due to Tommy John surgery. He doesn’t have the upside of Harrison, but he has good command of his fastball-splitter repertoire. He reminds me of Kevin Gausman a bit. While Gausman threw harder as a prospect, he also struggled for years to find a breaking pitch that worked until he realized that his splitter was his change-of-pace and breaking pitch and started using it accordingly. Sean Manaea almost feels like an afterthought here; I can’t see the Giants sticking with him if he struggles this season.

The bullpen doesn’t match the Braves in terms of depth, and the highs aren’t all that high, but there are a lot of acceptable arms, with ZiPS liking the ‘pen more than Steamer does. R.J. Dabovich is a ZiPS Special here, a pitcher with velocity approaching 100 mph but some control issues. I have plate discipline stats derived from minor league play-by-play, and ZiPS actually think that Dabovich’s walk rate in Triple-A was much higher than he deserved. His skill set coupled with the fact that his other pitch is a curveball makes me think of another reliever at a similar point in his career: James Karinchak. Sadly, Karinchak didn’t make the very top of Dabovich’s comp list (he was no. 12).

I think the Giants are an 85-90 win team, which is close enough to possibly win the division. Still, I suspect that a surprise NL West title would come more from disasters in Los Angeles and San Diego than this team’s upside. It’s a real shame that Correa didn’t work out, because it was just about the perfect signing for them. Unfortunately for the Giants, ZiPS being off by 30 wins in 2021 isn’t actually predictive of future overachieving.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.