2023 ZiPS Projections: Houston Astros

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Houston Astros.

Batters

The top of Houston’s lineup is dominated by four stars, all of whom could be one of the top three players at their position in any given season. Yordan Alvarez has been ZiPS’ favorite young slugger for a long time, and it’s definitely not seeing anything to make it question its algorithmic stance. Similarly, the system has always been in the Kyle Tucker fan club. Alex Bregman‘s peak was probably in 2018 and ’19, but he remains an elite third baseman, which isn’t easy given the quality at that position right now. We can also be even more confident now that Jose Altuve’s 2020 season was a blip we don’t have to worry too much about. And while he’s entering the downside of his career, he’s starting from a really high point. He bumped his 3,000-hit probability up from 34% to 46% in a single season, and that’s a milestone that’s hard to sneak up on by the back door.

Outside of the stars, there’s a lot of good average to above-average production here. José Abreu’s improved plate discipline helped him survive aging and the juiceless baseballs more than quite a few aging sluggers around baseball this season, buying him another few years in the middle class of first basemen. Michael Brantley is adequate, though always a health risk, and Jeremy Peña is a real plus in the lineup even if he’s not replacing the production of the departed Carlos Correa. Even the center field combination looks to be somewhere around average. The only exception in the projections is Martín Maldonado, but given how good the offense is otherwise and how happy they are with how Maldonado handles pitchers, the Astros appear more or less content with him right now. Houston was third in the American League in runs scored even while getting very little from their catchers or first basemen this season.

Houston’s lineup should remain one of the highest-scoring in baseball in 2023. Still, it’s a welcome respite that the team didn’t have to absorb the loss of a key position player cog this offseason; that the Astros survived losing Correa and George Springer doesn’t mean it’s ideal!

Pitchers

Every team has this idea that they’ll get a bunch of players with impressive raw physical tools, teach them some pitches and better command, and watch those guys magically turn into valuable pitchers. It’s the baseball equivalent of getting the rowing machine because this is the year you’re going to build some rock-hard abs. But the Astros actually succeed at doing this (the pitching part – I’m not sure about the abs). You could practically build an All-Star team out of the pitchers who have departed Houston in free agency over the last five or six years, and yet they’ve managed to absorb these losses in-house with almost no drama.

If ZiPS has a worry in the rotation, it’s not really the run prevention. The system projects a fantastic 11 pitchers on the roster who could realistically have an ERA+ of at least 90, with the majority above 100. I think the problem, if we’re trying to find one, is how Houston gets the innings out of all of them. The rotation was quite healthy last year and the innings they got out of Framber Valdez, José Urquidy, and Luis Garcia are probably at or near as many as the team is likely to wring from them in any given year. Justin Verlander was an innings-eater when healthy, and even a declining Zack Greinke was able to chow down a good number in 2021 when Verlander was out. Lance McCullers Jr. has a significant injury history, and I’d just feel better, even as someone who likes Hunter Brown, if they had a Jake Odorizzi type on-hand in a swing role. Luckily, that’s not the hardest thing to get. The Astros don’t really need that much, and that this is even a complaint indicates just how deep this team remains.

The bullpen is very good, but the system sees it just below the elites of the league. ZiPS is really not crazy about the very back of the ‘pen — guys like Seth Martinez and Blake Taylor — and it would be nice to see the team make another low-key addition or two here. Again, I wouldn’t expect anything major, and in any case, most of the top relievers are already off the market.

As of right now, ZiPS projects the Astros as the second-best team in baseball, just a hair behind the Atlanta Braves. There’s still a lot of offseason to go, but I’d be surprised to see that change much. Houston didn’t enter the winter needing to reinvent the team, just do some maintenance around a roster that won the World Series.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Yordan Alvarez L 26 DH 613 527 101 156 35 2 40 120 76 128 1 1
Alex Bregman R 29 3B 614 513 89 140 34 1 23 94 85 74 2 1
Jose Altuve R 33 2B 598 531 97 148 31 1 25 67 58 89 10 2
Kyle Tucker L 26 RF 614 549 86 148 33 3 30 113 59 105 22 3
Jeremy Peña R 25 SS 577 528 74 131 20 2 21 73 36 137 11 3
José Abreu R 36 1B 607 537 74 147 31 1 21 84 49 118 1 1
Yainer Diaz R 24 C 460 433 53 115 20 2 16 66 22 91 1 1
Michael Brantley L 36 LF 415 376 50 109 24 1 8 45 35 47 2 1
Jake Meyers R 27 CF 416 377 50 90 18 2 11 60 30 110 6 2
Pedro Leon R 25 CF 454 393 54 80 19 2 12 72 48 153 20 12
Mauricio Dubón R 28 CF 441 408 54 107 18 1 10 55 24 69 6 5
Dixon Machado 마차도 R 31 SS 463 415 44 101 19 1 7 52 40 80 4 2
Cesar Salazar L 27 C 351 318 35 74 15 1 9 55 18 80 3 2
Chas McCormick R 28 CF 402 352 51 82 10 2 13 54 41 102 5 3
Yuli Gurriel R 39 1B 508 464 57 128 31 1 11 61 33 63 5 1
Trey Mancini R 31 1B 582 520 68 128 28 1 20 70 51 139 0 1
Justin Dirden L 25 CF 494 441 58 101 26 4 16 82 38 158 6 3
Niko Goodrum B 31 2B 343 304 39 62 14 2 8 33 35 119 9 3
Korey Lee R 24 C 427 395 55 87 16 2 15 61 27 125 6 1
Scott Manea R 27 C 326 286 31 59 10 1 6 41 31 97 0 2
David Hensley R 27 SS 477 426 57 104 24 3 8 54 48 128 9 4
J.J. Matijevic L 27 1B 412 375 50 84 19 2 16 58 34 133 6 1
Shay Whitcomb R 24 2B 478 445 55 90 18 1 14 61 26 192 12 2
Rylan Bannon R 27 3B 452 401 49 83 18 2 12 56 43 120 6 2
Joe Perez R 23 3B 415 386 40 89 21 0 9 47 27 124 2 1
Corey Julks R 27 3B 515 469 71 113 22 3 17 76 39 133 11 4
Quincy Hamilton L 25 CF 485 425 52 95 18 0 10 66 45 121 11 3
Luis Santana R 23 2B 358 324 35 73 14 1 6 48 22 87 5 2
Jason Castro L 36 C 171 147 18 28 6 0 5 15 20 63 1 1
Martín Maldonado R 36 C 365 326 37 59 11 0 11 38 31 112 0 1
Grae Kessinger R 25 SS 445 399 53 80 12 1 9 48 38 125 10 5
Marty Costes R 27 LF 338 298 38 73 13 2 5 48 29 69 6 4
Will Wagner L 24 2B 459 406 46 89 16 2 6 54 42 123 4 1
Colin Barber L 22 CF 265 235 24 50 6 1 5 40 21 81 3 3
Matthew Barefoot R 25 RF 422 396 37 83 17 1 14 53 19 161 9 3
Alex McKenna R 25 CF 405 363 37 74 12 3 6 47 33 155 7 5
Nerio Rodriguez R 23 C 275 248 27 51 9 1 5 30 23 89 0 1
Scott Schreiber R 27 DH 313 290 36 64 13 2 8 41 18 97 4 3
Ross Adolph L 26 LF 330 284 36 55 10 4 5 47 34 131 4 4
C.J. Stubbs R 26 C 333 301 34 53 9 2 12 46 25 155 5 3
Kenedy Corona R 23 LF 420 384 56 85 17 2 10 55 27 125 12 6
Luke Berryhill R 25 C 387 334 44 68 15 0 9 58 38 140 2 1
Zach Daniels R 24 LF 397 358 45 69 10 1 11 50 33 168 10 4
Deury Carrasco L 23 3B 199 178 18 28 7 1 2 18 20 91 3 1
J.C. Correa R 24 C 424 394 48 101 22 1 5 47 24 57 2 3
Jordan Brewer R 25 RF 251 226 29 43 7 1 4 31 18 89 7 1
Bryan Arias R 26 1B 308 278 25 50 10 0 5 34 25 112 5 2
Freudis Nova R 23 SS 296 277 25 53 12 1 2 25 17 109 5 2
AJ Lee R 26 1B 182 166 16 24 4 0 3 19 11 91 2 1
Michael Sandle R 24 CF 477 443 56 95 17 4 7 60 24 138 10 2
Chad Stevens R 24 SS 324 301 32 54 10 1 6 33 19 132 5 3
Luis Guerrero R 24 2B 298 270 31 44 5 2 4 25 25 136 7 2
Cristian Gonzalez R 21 SS 423 398 40 77 12 1 7 41 20 158 1 2

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Yordan Alvarez 613 .296 .388 .598 168 .302 .323 0 5.8 .411
Alex Bregman 614 .273 .381 .478 136 .205 .281 2 5.1 .370
Jose Altuve 598 .279 .355 .482 129 .203 .295 -3 4.2 .359
Kyle Tucker 614 .270 .340 .505 130 .235 .285 4 4.1 .358
Jeremy Peña 577 .248 .302 .413 96 .165 .297 5 2.7 .309
José Abreu 607 .274 .346 .453 120 .179 .317 -1 2.1 .344
Yainer Diaz 460 .266 .302 .432 100 .166 .304 -3 1.8 .315
Michael Brantley 415 .290 .354 .423 114 .133 .315 1 1.7 .338
Jake Meyers 416 .239 .304 .385 89 .146 .309 5 1.5 .301
Pedro Leon 454 .204 .311 .354 84 .150 .298 5 1.3 .296
Mauricio Dubón 441 .262 .308 .385 91 .123 .295 4 1.3 .301
Dixon Machado 463 .243 .318 .345 84 .101 .287 0 1.2 .295
Cesar Salazar 351 .233 .293 .371 83 .138 .284 3 1.2 .290
Chas McCormick 402 .233 .316 .384 93 .151 .291 1 1.2 .307
Yuli Gurriel 508 .276 .325 .418 104 .142 .300 1 1.1 .320
Trey Mancini 582 .246 .321 .419 103 .173 .299 -1 1.0 .320
Justin Dirden 494 .229 .304 .415 97 .186 .318 -7 0.9 .312
Niko Goodrum 343 .204 .289 .342 74 .138 .305 4 0.7 .279
Korey Lee 427 .220 .276 .385 81 .165 .282 -3 0.7 .286
Scott Manea 326 .206 .301 .311 70 .105 .290 3 0.7 .277
David Hensley 477 .244 .321 .371 91 .127 .331 -11 0.5 .304
J.J. Matijevic 412 .224 .291 .413 92 .189 .301 1 0.4 .304
Shay Whitcomb 478 .202 .253 .342 63 .139 .318 8 0.4 .259
Rylan Bannon 452 .207 .292 .352 78 .145 .264 -1 0.3 .285
Joe Perez 415 .231 .282 .355 75 .124 .316 1 0.3 .278
Corey Julks 515 .241 .307 .409 96 .168 .301 -14 0.2 .310
Quincy Hamilton 485 .224 .309 .336 79 .113 .289 -6 0.2 .289
Luis Santana 358 .225 .293 .330 73 .105 .290 -1 0.1 .277
Jason Castro 171 .190 .294 .333 74 .143 .291 -2 0.0 .281
Martín Maldonado 365 .181 .262 .316 59 .135 .236 1 0.0 .258
Grae Kessinger 445 .201 .277 .303 61 .103 .268 1 -0.1 .260
Marty Costes 338 .245 .328 .352 89 .107 .304 -4 -0.1 .303
Will Wagner 459 .219 .302 .313 71 .094 .300 -4 -0.1 .277
Colin Barber 265 .213 .298 .311 70 .098 .302 -2 -0.2 .275
Matthew Barefoot 422 .210 .254 .364 68 .154 .312 6 -0.2 .267
Alex McKenna 405 .204 .281 .303 62 .099 .337 1 -0.3 .262
Nerio Rodriguez 275 .206 .280 .310 64 .105 .299 -5 -0.5 .264
Scott Schreiber 313 .221 .275 .362 75 .141 .303 0 -0.6 .276
Ross Adolph 330 .194 .303 .310 71 .116 .338 -2 -0.7 .279
C.J. Stubbs 333 .176 .252 .339 62 .163 .306 -7 -0.7 .260
Kenedy Corona 420 .221 .282 .354 75 .133 .301 -3 -0.8 .279
Luke Berryhill 387 .204 .302 .329 75 .126 .319 -16 -0.9 .284
Zach Daniels 397 .193 .270 .318 62 .126 .324 1 -0.9 .261
Deury Carrasco 199 .157 .246 .242 36 .084 .306 -2 -1.0 .225
J.C. Correa 424 .256 .302 .355 82 .099 .289 -20 -1.1 .288
Jordan Brewer 251 .190 .267 .283 53 .093 .293 -3 -1.1 .249
Bryan Arias 308 .180 .256 .270 46 .090 .280 3 -1.2 .239
Freudis Nova 296 .191 .243 .264 41 .072 .307 -4 -1.3 .227
AJ Lee 182 .145 .214 .223 22 .078 .292 0 -1.4 .201
Michael Sandle 477 .214 .270 .318 63 .104 .295 -10 -1.4 .260
Chad Stevens 324 .179 .235 .279 42 .100 .294 -6 -1.6 .228
Luis Guerrero 298 .163 .238 .241 34 .078 .308 -3 -1.6 .219
Cristian Gonzalez 423 .193 .236 .281 43 .088 .300 -9 -2.2 .229

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Yordan Alvarez Frank Thomas Jeff Bagwell Freddie Freeman
Alex Bregman Anthony Rendon Sal Bando Edgardo Alfonzo
Jose Altuve Charlie Gehringer Del Pratt Ryne Sandberg
Kyle Tucker Austin Meadows Amos Otis Reggie Smith
Jeremy Peña Brett Lawrie Eddie Miller Carlos Garcia
José Abreu David Segui Magglio Ordonez Jeff Conine
Yainer Diaz Manny Sanguillen Sandy Alomar Jr. Francisco Mejia
Michael Brantley Riggs Stephenson Tommy Holmes Harvey Kuenn
Jake Meyers Milt Nielsen Mikie Mahtook Emil Brown
Pedro Leon Bobby Del Greco Tom Perdue Pepe Mangual
Mauricio Dubón Mel Almada Wallace Johnson Lew Beasley
Dixon Machado Scott Fletcher Dave Chalk Ruben Amaro
Cesar Salazar Charlie White Joe Girardi Cody Stanley
Chas McCormick Pat McNulty Frank Welch Jeffrey Hammonds
Yuli Gurriel B.J. Surhoff Felipe Alou Vic Power
Trey Mancini Travis Lee J.T. Snow Dave Roberts
Justin Dirden Tony Curry Dan Ford Tony Gonzalez
Niko Goodrum Mike Brumley Brian Giles Bob Meacham
Korey Lee Randy Hundley Jimmie Coker Art Kusnyer
Scott Manea Jim Jones Moe Thacker Chris Cannizzaro
David Hensley Woody English Chris Taylor Jonathan Villar
J.J. Matijevic Travis Ishikawa John Herrnstein Patrick Wisdom
Shay Whitcomb Tim Moss Brandon Dixon Daryl Robertson
Rylan Bannon Michael Wolters Bobbye Beckner Kevin Melillo
Joe Perez Marty Castillo Dave Engle Jedd Gyorko
Corey Julks Tom Brookens Andy Carey Lorenzo Gray
Quincy Hamilton Dane Walker Don Bosch Jim Buccheri
Luis Santana Luis Gonzalez Matt McLaughlin Shane Letterio
Jason Castro Jamie Quirk Bob O’Farrell Bill Salkeld
Martín Maldonado Andy Seminick Lance Burkhart Jim Sundberg
Grae Kessinger Dylan Moore Tyler Bain David Markey
Marty Costes Johnny Watwood Jayce Ray Tommie Martz
Will Wagner Joey Hammond Gordy Lund Colin Walsh
Colin Barber Raymond Staub Ronald Rosenberg Red Prentice
Matthew Barefoot William Hess Ike Blessitt Ken Williams
Alex McKenna Julio Martinez Jeff Gelalich Steve Martin
Nerio Rodriguez Bruce Nichols Pat Callahan Ray Corbett
Scott Schreiber James Springborn Rylan Sandoval Hector Perez
Ross Adolph Ronnie Richardson Rudy Martin Damon Sublett
C.J. Stubbs Orlando McFarlane Danny Kravitz John Albini
Kenedy Corona Esteury Ruiz Tony Alvarez Jorge Padilla
Luke Berryhill Max Ramirez Riley Adams Jerry Grote
Zach Daniels Joe Cherry Scott Wade Greg Bailey
Deury Carrasco James Hemphill Dale Soderholm MacGregor Byers
J.C. Correa Ray Smith Kevin Pasley Jordan Pacheco
Jordan Brewer Ryan Metzler Matt Sauls Hunter Jones
Bryan Arias Byron Ewing Mike Vincent Bryon Jeffcoat
Freudis Nova J.D. Vidal Jesus Gonzalez Preston Harriman
AJ Lee Zach Welz Jon Schwind Ryan Metzler
Michael Sandle Shannon Wilkerson Dave Oliva Pat Woodruff
Chad Stevens Omar Pena Jarred Mederos Rick Bender
Luis Guerrero Kevin Connacher Thomas Joyce Sean Berry
Cristian Gonzalez Jim Campbell Danny Ainge John Branciforti

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Yordan Alvarez .321 .416 .670 192 7.6 .270 .364 .539 147 4.3
Alex Bregman .295 .407 .530 155 6.5 .249 .353 .421 115 3.6
Jose Altuve .303 .382 .538 150 5.7 .256 .331 .434 111 2.8
Kyle Tucker .296 .368 .565 153 5.9 .248 .316 .449 109 2.4
Jeremy Peña .273 .327 .465 115 4.1 .225 .279 .357 78 1.4
José Abreu .297 .371 .504 139 3.4 .248 .321 .402 100 0.6
Michael Brantley .319 .383 .470 131 2.6 .261 .325 .376 93 0.6
Jake Meyers .268 .331 .431 107 2.5 .212 .275 .329 67 0.4
Pedro Leon .226 .333 .403 103 2.3 .176 .285 .309 66 0.4
Mauricio Dubón .292 .335 .432 110 2.4 .238 .282 .340 73 0.3
Dixon Machado .270 .342 .387 102 2.2 .219 .293 .310 69 0.3
Cesar Salazar .264 .324 .423 104 2.1 .204 .268 .324 65 0.2
Chas McCormick .257 .342 .437 112 2.1 .208 .291 .336 75 0.3
Yuli Gurriel .301 .351 .463 121 2.3 .248 .298 .375 85 0.0
Trey Mancini .269 .346 .470 120 2.2 .216 .297 .368 84 -0.5
Justin Dirden .255 .326 .467 116 2.0 .200 .275 .368 75 -0.5
Niko Goodrum .231 .316 .394 95 1.6 .179 .264 .297 56 0.0
Korey Lee .250 .306 .437 102 1.9 .196 .251 .332 60 -0.4
Scott Manea .235 .334 .361 92 1.5 .175 .274 .269 53 -0.1
David Hensley .270 .349 .415 108 1.5 .218 .296 .327 72 -0.6
J.J. Matijevic .248 .316 .472 113 1.5 .199 .262 .362 72 -0.7
Shay Whitcomb .230 .281 .396 84 1.7 .178 .230 .295 44 -0.7
Rylan Bannon .234 .315 .399 97 1.4 .182 .266 .307 57 -0.8
Joe Perez .257 .307 .403 94 1.2 .205 .255 .315 58 -0.7
Corey Julks .265 .332 .458 115 1.4 .216 .281 .356 76 -1.1
Quincy Hamilton .248 .334 .378 96 1.1 .198 .284 .293 63 -0.8
Luis Santana .254 .320 .377 92 1.0 .205 .270 .294 57 -0.6
Jason Castro .219 .318 .394 96 0.5 .163 .262 .279 55 -0.4
Martín Maldonado .207 .288 .382 82 1.0 .157 .236 .263 41 -0.8
Grae Kessinger .226 .299 .347 79 1.0 .176 .252 .266 46 -0.9
Marty Costes .272 .354 .399 107 0.6 .218 .298 .311 70 -1.0
Will Wagner .241 .322 .352 87 0.7 .187 .270 .271 53 -1.3
Colin Barber .241 .325 .359 90 0.4 .186 .274 .256 50 -0.8
Matthew Barefoot .238 .280 .413 87 0.8 .182 .224 .312 47 -1.4
Alex McKenna .230 .307 .347 78 0.5 .178 .257 .262 45 -1.2
Nerio Rodriguez .236 .311 .367 85 0.3 .179 .253 .268 45 -1.1
Scott Schreiber .250 .302 .415 96 0.2 .199 .251 .317 57 -1.3
Ross Adolph .221 .327 .364 91 0.1 .164 .273 .263 51 -1.4
C.J. Stubbs .204 .284 .408 88 0.3 .145 .221 .274 39 -1.6
Kenedy Corona .245 .308 .402 94 0.3 .198 .257 .314 59 -1.7
Luke Berryhill .227 .330 .380 92 0.0 .176 .277 .279 55 -1.8
Zach Daniels .223 .296 .364 82 0.1 .171 .243 .273 45 -1.8
Deury Carrasco .186 .275 .294 57 -0.5 .129 .221 .199 19 -1.5
J.C. Correa .284 .328 .395 99 -0.2 .227 .270 .311 62 -2.2
Jordan Brewer .217 .294 .325 72 -0.5 .161 .237 .239 34 -1.7
Bryan Arias .209 .287 .312 68 -0.4 .153 .228 .225 29 -1.9
Freudis Nova .217 .272 .307 60 -0.6 .167 .218 .230 26 -1.9
AJ Lee .174 .244 .273 42 -1.0 .117 .190 .178 5 -1.8
Michael Sandle .240 .296 .361 80 -0.3 .191 .249 .279 46 -2.4
Chad Stevens .204 .258 .323 59 -0.8 .156 .210 .235 25 -2.3
Luis Guerrero .194 .263 .288 51 -0.9 .135 .209 .197 15 -2.3
Cristian Gonzalez .218 .257 .324 58 -1.4 .167 .209 .239 25 -3.1

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Ryan Pressly R 34 5 1 2.58 55 0 52.3 40 15 5 13 66
Framber Valdez L 29 14 7 3.26 29 29 182.3 158 66 15 62 168
Lance McCullers Jr. R 29 8 4 3.36 20 20 112.3 91 42 10 49 121
Héctor Neris R 34 6 3 3.55 61 0 58.3 46 23 7 20 70
Rafael Montero R 32 4 2 3.71 55 0 53.3 47 22 5 19 54
Cristian Javier R 26 10 6 3.74 31 22 132.3 98 55 21 56 166
Bryan Abreu R 26 3 2 3.75 45 3 62.3 48 26 7 34 82
Will Smith L 33 2 2 3.77 59 0 57.3 49 24 9 20 64
Hunter Brown R 24 8 6 3.78 28 16 109.7 92 46 12 50 125
Phil Maton R 30 2 1 3.84 58 0 58.7 50 25 7 22 69
Seth Martinez R 28 4 3 3.86 41 0 53.7 46 23 6 21 56
Ryne Stanek R 31 2 2 3.90 60 4 57.7 46 25 8 31 67
Jon Olczak R 29 4 2 3.92 41 1 57.3 53 25 7 17 55
Adam Morgan L 33 2 2 3.94 35 0 29.7 25 13 4 9 32
José Urquidy R 28 10 7 4.04 26 25 140.3 132 63 23 31 122
Brandon Bielak R 27 5 4 4.08 26 12 90.3 85 41 10 40 81
Luis Garcia R 26 11 8 4.09 26 24 136.3 124 62 21 42 134
Austin Davis L 30 2 1 4.10 45 2 52.7 45 24 6 27 59
Ronel Blanco R 29 5 4 4.20 43 0 45.0 40 21 7 21 51
Parker Mushinski L 27 2 2 4.21 32 5 51.3 49 24 7 22 51
Spencer Arrighetti R 23 7 5 4.24 26 16 104.0 89 49 15 53 116
Josh James R 30 1 1 4.32 31 1 33.3 29 16 4 20 38
Jaime Melendez R 21 6 6 4.35 26 18 80.7 66 39 9 54 96
Nick Hernandez R 28 4 4 4.35 42 0 51.7 43 25 7 31 61
Enoli Paredes R 27 4 3 4.36 43 2 53.7 43 26 7 34 68
Shawn Dubin R 27 4 4 4.43 22 13 65.0 56 32 10 34 79
Zac Rosscup L 35 1 1 4.56 28 1 25.7 23 13 3 17 30
Layne Henderson R 27 4 4 4.57 29 0 45.3 41 23 7 27 51
Misael Tamarez R 23 5 5 4.59 26 20 102.0 90 52 14 61 108
J.P. France R 28 4 4 4.59 28 14 96.0 89 49 15 50 105
Jonathan Sprinkle R 24 3 3 4.60 37 0 47.0 38 24 6 33 59
Tyler Ivey R 27 1 1 4.65 10 8 31.0 29 16 5 17 33
Blake Taylor L 27 3 2 4.73 39 1 40.0 39 21 6 21 33
Jayden Murray R 26 6 5 4.73 21 20 93.3 95 49 12 31 62
Adrian Chaidez R 24 3 3 4.87 24 12 85.0 78 46 12 52 83
Julio Robaina L 22 4 4 4.88 21 14 79.3 77 43 10 48 69
Cesar Gomez R 24 5 6 4.91 23 13 84.3 91 46 13 30 61
Joe Record R 28 3 3 4.92 35 2 53.0 52 29 7 31 47
Max Roberts L 25 2 2 4.97 32 1 41.7 39 23 6 27 42
Jimmy Endersby R 25 5 6 5.05 24 17 98.0 99 55 15 59 80
Brett Conine R 26 4 5 5.12 25 13 96.7 101 55 15 43 72
Chad Donato R 28 5 6 5.13 24 15 98.3 106 56 18 43 76
Tyler Brown R 24 4 5 5.22 19 12 70.7 71 41 12 41 65
Devin Conn R 26 3 5 5.37 39 0 52.0 51 31 8 30 42
Bryan King L 26 1 2 5.40 17 0 26.7 28 16 4 16 20
Matt Ruppenthal R 27 3 5 5.52 31 5 62.0 59 38 11 43 64
Forrest Whitley R 25 3 4 5.61 16 14 51.3 50 32 10 32 55
Cody Deason R 26 4 5 5.72 19 12 67.7 70 43 12 44 60
Derek West R 26 2 3 5.80 30 0 40.3 39 26 7 31 42
Jojanse Torres R 27 2 3 6.20 30 3 49.3 51 34 10 42 46
Jose Betances R 23 2 4 7.03 30 0 39.7 34 31 6 43 42

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Ryan Pressly 52.3 11.4 2.2 0.9 6.2% 31.6% .285 162 2.62 62 1.5
Framber Valdez 182.3 8.3 3.1 0.7 8.1% 22.0% .281 128 3.58 78 3.9
Lance McCullers Jr. 112.3 9.7 3.9 0.8 10.3% 25.5% .279 124 3.63 81 2.2
Héctor Neris 58.3 10.8 3.1 1.1 8.3% 29.0% .279 118 3.55 85 0.6
Rafael Montero 53.3 9.1 3.2 0.8 8.5% 24.1% .292 112 3.58 89 0.4
Cristian Javier 132.3 11.3 3.8 1.4 10.2% 30.2% .257 112 4.11 90 2.1
Bryan Abreu 62.3 11.8 4.9 1.0 12.5% 30.0% .289 111 3.86 90 0.6
Will Smith 57.3 10.0 3.1 1.4 8.4% 26.8% .278 111 4.11 90 0.4
Hunter Brown 109.7 10.3 4.1 1.0 10.7% 26.7% .289 111 3.75 90 1.7
Phil Maton 58.7 10.6 3.4 1.1 9.0% 28.2% .295 109 3.78 92 0.3
Seth Martinez 53.7 9.4 3.5 1.0 9.3% 24.9% .284 108 3.86 92 0.3
Ryne Stanek 57.7 10.5 4.8 1.2 12.4% 26.8% .271 107 4.35 93 0.5
Jon Olczak 57.3 8.6 2.7 1.1 7.0% 22.7% .289 106 3.92 94 0.4
Adam Morgan 29.7 9.7 2.7 1.2 7.4% 26.4% .276 106 3.96 94 0.2
José Urquidy 140.3 7.8 2.0 1.5 5.4% 21.1% .274 103 4.27 97 1.8
Brandon Bielak 90.3 8.1 4.0 1.0 10.1% 20.5% .290 102 4.26 98 0.9
Luis Garcia 136.3 8.8 2.8 1.4 7.3% 23.4% .279 102 4.14 98 1.7
Austin Davis 52.7 10.1 4.6 1.0 11.8% 25.9% .289 102 4.10 98 0.2
Ronel Blanco 45.0 10.2 4.2 1.4 10.8% 26.2% .289 99 4.38 101 0.0
Parker Mushinski 51.3 8.9 3.9 1.2 9.8% 22.7% .298 99 4.34 101 0.3
Spencer Arrighetti 104.0 10.0 4.6 1.3 11.6% 25.4% .281 98 4.50 102 1.0
Josh James 33.3 10.3 5.4 1.1 13.2% 25.2% .294 97 4.41 103 0.1
Jaime Melendez 80.7 10.7 6.0 1.0 14.9% 26.5% .288 96 4.42 104 0.8
Nick Hernandez 51.7 10.6 5.4 1.2 13.6% 26.8% .283 96 4.59 104 0.0
Enoli Paredes 53.7 11.4 5.7 1.2 14.2% 28.5% .286 96 4.44 104 0.1
Shawn Dubin 65.0 10.9 4.7 1.4 12.0% 27.9% .291 94 4.48 106 0.6
Zac Rosscup 25.7 10.5 6.0 1.1 13.9% 24.6% .308 92 4.56 109 0.0
Layne Henderson 45.3 10.1 5.4 1.4 13.2% 24.9% .293 91 4.76 109 -0.1
Misael Tamarez 102.0 9.5 5.4 1.2 13.4% 23.7% .285 91 4.73 110 0.7
J.P. France 96.0 9.8 4.7 1.4 11.7% 24.6% .295 91 4.62 110 0.5
Jonathan Sprinkle 47.0 11.3 6.3 1.1 14.3% 25.7% .288 91 4.73 110 -0.1
Tyler Ivey 31.0 9.6 4.9 1.5 12.2% 23.7% .293 90 4.77 111 0.1
Blake Taylor 40.0 7.4 4.7 1.4 11.7% 18.3% .282 88 5.18 113 -0.2
Jayden Murray 93.3 6.0 3.0 1.2 7.8% 15.5% .282 88 4.69 113 0.5
Adrian Chaidez 85.0 8.8 5.5 1.3 13.4% 21.4% .284 86 5.12 117 0.2
Julio Robaina 79.3 7.8 5.4 1.1 13.3% 19.2% .291 86 5.06 117 0.2
Cesar Gomez 84.3 6.5 3.2 1.4 8.1% 16.4% .297 85 4.92 118 0.2
Joe Record 53.0 8.0 5.3 1.2 12.8% 19.3% .294 85 4.96 118 -0.2
Max Roberts 41.7 9.1 5.8 1.3 14.1% 21.9% .292 84 5.10 119 -0.3
Jimmy Endersby 98.0 7.3 5.4 1.4 13.0% 17.6% .289 83 5.47 121 0.1
Brett Conine 96.7 6.7 4.0 1.4 9.9% 16.6% .290 82 5.36 123 -0.1
Chad Donato 98.3 7.0 3.9 1.6 9.8% 17.2% .293 81 5.39 123 0.0
Tyler Brown 70.7 8.3 5.2 1.5 12.7% 20.2% .294 80 5.39 125 -0.1
Devin Conn 52.0 7.3 5.2 1.4 12.6% 17.6% .281 78 5.61 129 -0.7
Bryan King 26.7 6.8 5.4 1.4 12.8% 16.0% .293 77 5.63 129 -0.4
Matt Ruppenthal 62.0 9.3 6.2 1.6 14.8% 22.1% .289 76 5.81 132 -0.6
Forrest Whitley 51.3 9.6 5.6 1.8 13.3% 22.9% .294 74 5.59 134 -0.2
Cody Deason 67.7 8.0 5.9 1.6 13.9% 19.0% .296 73 5.90 137 -0.5
Derek West 40.3 9.4 6.9 1.6 15.9% 21.5% .296 72 5.78 139 -0.7
Jojanse Torres 49.3 8.4 7.7 1.8 17.4% 19.1% .293 67 6.66 149 -0.9
Jose Betances 39.7 9.5 9.8 1.4 21.2% 20.7% .275 59 7.39 168 -1.3

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Ryan Pressly Rollie Fingers Rich Gossage Doug Brocail 2.1 0.7 1.64 4.07
Framber Valdez Tom Glavine Mike Hampton Mel Parnell 5.0 2.5 2.74 3.95
Lance McCullers Jr. Jim Maloney Sheriff Blake Jimmy Ring 3.0 1.2 2.87 4.04
Héctor Neris Alberto Reyes Josias Manzanillo Jim Umbricht 1.3 -0.3 2.66 4.88
Rafael Montero Lindy McDaniel Brandon Morrow Randy St. Claire 0.9 -0.2 2.91 4.88
Cristian Javier Dave Boswell Tommy Bridges Andy Messersmith 3.2 0.9 3.13 4.45
Bryan Abreu Mychal Givens Bobby Jenks Bob Reynolds 1.2 -0.2 3.09 4.71
Will Smith Ron Mahay Al Holland Tug McGraw 1.1 -0.3 3.00 4.80
Hunter Brown Hank Mason Pat Zachry Ernest Nichols 2.6 0.7 3.24 4.50
Phil Maton Scott Atchison Chad Gaudin Jerrod Riggan 0.8 -0.4 3.11 4.81
Seth Martinez Vinnie Chulk Jason Urquidez Jared Burton 0.7 -0.2 3.22 4.79
Ryne Stanek Charlie Hough Pedro Strop Curt Leskanic 1.2 -0.4 3.02 5.35
Jon Olczak Herm Starrette Nick Wittgren Bubbie Buzachero 0.8 -0.2 3.26 4.80
Adam Morgan Craig Skok Mark Guthrie Joe Hoerner 0.5 -0.2 3.23 4.74
José Urquidy Oil Can Boyd Doc Medich Yonny Chirinos 2.7 1.0 3.57 4.54
Brandon Bielak Ed Sprague Steve Baker Zach Miner 1.6 0.3 3.61 4.68
Luis Garcia Phil Hughes Ervin Santana Dylan Bundy 2.7 0.7 3.52 4.70
Austin Davis Wil Ledezma Charlie Manning Josh Smith 0.7 -0.4 3.35 5.14
Ronel Blanco Jonah Bayliss Greg Aquino Thomas Atlee 0.5 -0.4 3.50 5.17
Parker Mushinski Chester Vincent Juan Agosto Jack Spradlin 0.7 -0.1 3.59 4.91
Spencer Arrighetti Dan Spillner Alan Wirth Scott Scudder 1.9 -0.1 3.68 5.06
Josh James Scott Stranski Mel Queen Toby Borland 0.5 -0.3 3.49 5.44
Jaime Melendez Dwight Cook Kyle Crick Joseph Ostopchuk 1.5 -0.2 3.76 5.18
Nick Hernandez Todd Jones Bob Humphreys Deunte Heath 0.4 -0.6 3.67 5.31
Enoli Paredes David Aardsma Steve Johnson Anthony Varvaro 0.7 -0.6 3.57 5.38
Shawn Dubin Rik Currier Vic Davis Chuck Murray 1.1 -0.2 3.78 5.31
Zac Rosscup Randy Williams Marshall Bridges Rich Sauveur 0.3 -0.4 3.54 6.29
Layne Henderson David Carpenter Andy Cavazos Jason Shiell 0.3 -0.5 3.85 5.42
Misael Tamarez Shawn Hillegas Joe McIntosh Darryl Kile 1.5 -0.3 4.03 5.36
J.P. France Brad Peacock Aaron Wilkerson Fritz Ackley 1.5 -0.3 3.91 5.27
Jonathan Sprinkle Tom Thurberg Joe Valentine Brian Bruney 0.3 -0.7 3.90 5.60
Tyler Ivey Jeff Arney Cloyd Boyer Gary Wex 0.4 -0.1 4.03 5.41
Blake Taylor Juan Alvarez Jose Rodriguez Frankie Reed 0.2 -0.5 4.11 5.47
Jayden Murray Alec Asher Luis Mendoza Don Schulze 1.0 -0.2 4.30 5.29
Adrian Chaidez Bill Diemer Cardell Camper Tim Watkins 0.7 -0.6 4.42 5.65
Julio Robaina Gordie Richardson Dave Cheadle Stan Bockewitz 0.8 -0.4 4.35 5.46
Cesar Gomez D.J. Brown Eddie McKiernan Duke von Schamann 0.7 -0.4 4.46 5.49
Joe Record Chris Jones Tim Lavigne Tim Lahey 0.2 -0.8 4.35 5.90
Max Roberts Mike Maitland Jason Rajotte Bruce Vegely 0.1 -0.7 4.30 5.81
Jimmy Endersby Carlos Chantres Rich Sparks Marshall Boze 0.6 -0.6 4.62 5.67
Brett Conine Zach Nuding Phillips Valdez Fernando Rodriguez 0.5 -0.7 4.68 5.66
Chad Donato Shaun Garceau Larry Luebbers Tony Metoyer 0.7 -0.8 4.56 5.67
Tyler Brown Dylan Baker Keith Nicholson Craig Hanson 0.5 -0.7 4.65 5.94
Devin Conn Connor Kaden Nefi Ogando Trystan Magnuson -0.3 -1.2 4.81 6.27
Bryan King Brad Murray Jerry Stafford Gerald Wagner -0.1 -0.6 4.62 6.08
Matt Ruppenthal Bob Paffel Blake Perry Steve Walker -0.1 -1.3 4.91 6.53
Forrest Whitley Brian Griffiths JaVaun West Jackie Earls 0.2 -0.8 4.89 6.57
Cody Deason Tyler Vail Jordan Milbrath Mike Frew 0.1 -1.0 5.07 6.50
Derek West Mike Heinen Tony Amezcua Ryan Ledbetter -0.4 -1.2 5.06 6.82
Jojanse Torres Jose Rodiles Kevin Lane Jason Richardson -0.5 -1.5 5.43 7.36
Jose Betances Jason Garcia Jhondaniel Medina Rocky Cordova -0.9 -1.8 6.17 8.24

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

41 Comments
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firegrowley
1 month ago

Oh man, Yordan was only about a month off of really hitting the Bagwell & Thomas comps.

HappyFunBallmember
1 month ago
Reply to  firegrowley

Those Yordan comps are kind of ridiculous (in a good way), but we know he’s awesome.

What impresses me are the names next to Jose Abreu. That’s pretty dreamy for an aging first baseman

Last edited 1 month ago by HappyFunBall
Kvnmember
1 month ago
Reply to  HappyFunBall

Probably worth remembering that the age comps are for the same age season of those players. By age 36 David Segui was pretty washed out. Magglio and Conine were roughly 2 WAR players around those seasons, which sounds about right for Abreu.