2023 ZiPS Projections: Detroit Tigers

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Detroit Tigers.

Batters

Oops! Last preseason, I regularly expressed guarded optimism that the Tigers had enough going for them that I thought they’d handily beat their rather grumpy ZiPS projection of 73 wins. While there are plenty of times when I win my personal disagreements with my creation, there are quite a lot when I don’t, and this was a particularly stark one! The Tigers were basically the anti-Orioles of ’22, with the vast majority of the roster leaving the season with a worse projection than they started it with, and the possibly-too-pessimistic ZiPS estimate turning out to be over-generous by seven games. So what happens now?

The relatively good news is that Detroit will likely get some boost simply from regression toward the mean — the so-called “dead cat bounce,” or what Bill James coined “the Plexiglass principle.” Jonathan Schoop, at 30, sported an OPS more than 160 points off his career numbers, and even if I feel worse about him, he would be hard-pressed to be that bad again. Similarly, Spencer Torkelson, a preseason contender for the Rookie of the Year last season, has lost a lot of the shine, especially given that his return to the minors was similarly bleak, but it would be hard for him not to improve on a .604 OPS.

Javier Báez had his worst full (normal-length) major league season offensively, but he still managed two WAR and is only a year removed from a legitimately All-Star level season (and just turned 30). ZiPS projects muted rebounds from Akil Baddoo and Austin Meadows, though injuries will always be a concern with the latter. The team’s multi-headed catcher situation would have to try to hit worse than Tucker Barnhart did. No similar bounceback is likely for Miguel Cabrera, though Albert Pujols looked toast-like and had a solid finale; the Tigers just aren’t likely to make a push to maximize his playing time with his milestone moments behind him.

So, if the Tigers’ offense is likely to be better, is it likely to be good? Not really. While the roster has a lot of players who you’d expect better from given their established abilities, having so many known quantities also limits just how much upside there is. Báez could be very solid, if flawed in many ways; there’s still hope for Torkelson; and Riley Greene, better than most Tigers in 2022, doesn’t have an appreciably diminished ceiling from a year ago. But where is the dream scenario? Bad teams have to be run so they at least have some future hope, and it’s hard to see an actual good offense constructed from the players currently within the organization. Detroit is more likely to spend money someday than the rest of the division, but this lineup is too flawed to be fixed by slapping on a high-priced player or two. It’s a mess, and new team president Scott Harris has a huge task ahead of him.

Pitchers

At least here, the Tigers can more accurately blame injuries for some of the bleakness. Going into the 2021 season, we had them with three of the 10 best pitching prospects in the majors: Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal, and Casey Mize, with players like Alex Faedo, Joey Wentz, and Beau Burrows looking like they had solid odds of being valuable back-of-the-rotation options. We were far from alone in this optimism, and while the team’s drafts had frequently failed to produce hitters, it looked like there would be a good pitching core to build around.

Manning showed some flashes in 2022, but he was also plagued by shoulder inflammation that cost him nearly four months of the season. Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June. Skubal, who has showed the most in the majors, is out for a sizable chunk of 2023 due to his own flexor tendon procedure. Beyond those three, the rotation remains relatively unexciting. Spencer Turnbull was a highly interesting success story, but he’s coming back from his own Tommy John surgery. Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen are stopgaps that would seem more fitting on a contending team that needs fifth starter/swingman depth. I’m still a fan of Eduardo Rodriguez, but he’s a definite question mark, though he may have the best short-term upside of any healthy pitcher on the team.

In other words, it’s not a bad group, but it’s also a very veteran one without a ton of upside (with the exceptions noted above). While I think the dream scenario here is a rosier one than that of the lineup, I don’t think it’s so compelling that it can overcome the run scoring. It just doesn’t feel great for what is largely a veteran team to have .500 upside.

Moving over to the bullpen, this was basically the only area of the team that had success in 2022. In terms of total WAR, it ranked seventh in baseball and finished just as highly in both ERA and FIP (so it wasn’t just a WPA quirk). Joe Jiménez and Gregory Soto are gone, but ZiPS still likes the returning Alex Lange and Jason Foley. The problem in the projection comes with the depth; the computer literally hates most of the options once you get past this point. If the projections are right, the Tigers will see their relief corps fall considerably down the ranks from 2022, but in truth, a bullpen doesn’t really matter until the lineup and rotation are functioning, and they will not have a whole lot of leads to protect.

Overall, there’s enough to like about the Tigers that ZiPS still sees them as a mid-70s win team, and this time I think my creation and I are in accord. Detroit does have a challenging road ahead; the problems that the new front office has to tackle are no less daunting than those of the Reds, Pirates, Royals, or Nationals, though not identical. With a great deal of similarity in how baseball’s top teams are constructed, MLB is becoming a good example of the Anna Karenina principle: happy teams are all alike; every unhappy team is unhappy in its own way.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Javier Báez R 30 SS 560 524 70 129 26 3 20 70 26 155 10 3
Riley Greene L 22 CF 538 483 70 122 22 5 14 61 48 145 5 4
Austin Meadows L 28 RF 491 432 62 115 25 5 18 66 49 90 4 3
Ryan Kreidler R 25 SS 441 390 55 86 17 2 10 49 39 131 10 3
Jonathan Schoop R 31 2B 547 510 63 128 24 2 16 58 25 113 3 1
Spencer Torkelson R 23 1B 543 473 64 111 24 1 21 66 57 132 1 2
Nick Maton L 26 SS 401 355 40 81 18 3 8 35 38 104 3 2
Andre Lipcius R 25 3B 511 454 56 108 24 2 8 50 51 102 5 2
Eric Haase R 30 C 371 340 44 77 13 2 16 50 27 117 1 1
Jake Rogers R 28 C 250 222 29 44 8 2 9 31 22 86 1 1
Kerry Carpenter L 25 LF 488 446 58 111 24 2 19 70 30 113 3 5
Zack Short R 28 SS 481 410 56 83 20 1 10 47 59 143 5 3
Andrew Navigato R 25 2B 427 387 49 87 16 2 9 49 26 103 7 4
Andy Ibáñez R 30 1B 430 393 52 103 23 2 8 43 31 69 4 2
Wenceel Perez B 23 2B 460 421 57 103 18 6 8 49 31 91 10 3
Akil Baddoo L 24 LF 410 366 50 87 15 6 9 40 41 108 15 6
Dustin Garneau R 35 C 221 195 21 39 11 1 6 25 18 65 0 1
John Valente R 28 3B 291 269 30 70 11 2 2 26 17 32 7 2
Brendon Davis R 25 3B 557 498 64 111 23 4 15 65 47 149 5 3
Dillon Dingler R 24 C 412 370 43 75 13 3 9 47 28 140 1 1
Mario Feliciano R 24 C 347 322 37 80 15 2 8 36 16 80 1 1
Quincy Nieporte R 28 1B 452 415 46 102 21 1 16 58 26 88 1 1
Corey Joyce R 24 SS 313 275 35 59 10 1 6 35 28 84 4 2
Parker Meadows L 23 CF 527 478 58 108 19 4 12 58 37 131 8 4
Michael Papierski B 27 C 367 319 34 68 11 1 5 28 39 84 0 2
Josh Crouch R 24 C 409 375 40 85 16 1 8 42 25 92 0 1
Donny Sands R 27 C 321 290 33 69 13 0 7 27 28 65 1 1
Michael De La Cruz B 30 C 127 113 14 26 6 1 2 13 13 29 0 1
Jermaine Palacios R 26 SS 474 436 57 99 19 0 11 45 31 128 8 7
Steele Walker L 26 RF 410 378 44 88 17 2 8 38 26 78 6 3
Justyn-Henry Malloy R 23 LF 533 461 64 104 20 0 12 46 62 150 3 1
Eduardo Valencia R 23 C 190 171 19 40 7 0 3 19 13 41 1 1
Julio E. Rodriguez R 26 C 270 245 22 53 8 0 6 23 22 73 1 1
Jake Holton R 25 1B 441 384 48 85 16 2 8 50 41 104 2 2
Tyler Nevin R 26 3B 447 399 44 89 17 1 10 41 40 98 2 1
Brady Policelli R 28 C 337 308 36 65 13 3 7 33 24 92 6 2
Colt Keith L 21 3B 244 223 32 51 9 2 5 27 19 63 2 1
Gage Workman B 23 SS 508 473 51 96 27 5 9 50 29 188 15 6
Chris Rabago R 30 C 191 173 14 33 6 0 2 13 15 61 2 1
Izaac Pacheco L 20 3B 423 389 49 85 18 2 7 39 30 120 5 3
Luis García B 22 SS 354 313 33 59 10 3 4 24 34 106 4 4
Jacob Robson L 28 CF 351 309 39 67 13 3 5 33 39 123 14 6
Diego Rincones R 24 DH 343 317 34 79 12 0 8 36 15 58 0 1
Trei Cruz B 24 SS 440 387 47 76 15 3 5 32 49 134 7 3
Jon Rosoff L 28 C 151 139 11 30 5 0 0 10 11 32 1 1
Miguel Cabrera R 40 DH 411 372 30 93 12 0 8 43 31 96 1 1
Andrew Knapp B 31 C 250 226 23 46 11 0 5 22 19 74 0 1
Bryant Packard L 25 RF 299 276 37 65 13 1 6 34 14 71 8 2
Matt Vierling R 26 CF 455 414 46 99 17 3 8 38 31 94 11 4
Dylan Rosa R 27 LF 268 246 28 47 8 1 8 29 16 111 3 1
Jose King L 24 3B 304 286 28 56 11 2 3 25 11 107 3 2
Eric De La Rosa R 26 CF 321 291 33 56 11 3 3 34 18 123 9 4
Roberto Campos R 20 CF 428 399 42 89 20 3 6 39 25 115 3 2
Daniel Cabrera L 24 RF 490 455 50 101 18 4 8 44 30 117 4 1
Jack López R 30 RF 334 312 37 64 14 1 5 28 14 112 9 2
Ben Malgeri R 23 CF 416 366 46 75 12 3 4 42 32 128 5 5

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Javier Báez 560 .246 .289 .422 97 .176 .312 7 2.9 .305
Riley Greene 538 .253 .323 .406 104 .153 .333 3 2.4 .317
Austin Meadows 491 .266 .346 .472 128 .206 .299 -2 2.3 .350
Ryan Kreidler 441 .221 .300 .351 83 .131 .305 4 1.5 .288
Jonathan Schoop 547 .251 .293 .400 93 .149 .294 0 1.4 .298
Spencer Torkelson 543 .235 .324 .423 109 .188 .281 0 1.3 .324
Nick Maton 401 .228 .308 .363 89 .135 .300 0 1.2 .296
Andre Lipcius 511 .238 .315 .352 88 .115 .291 1 1.2 .296
Eric Haase 371 .226 .286 .418 95 .191 .295 -2 1.2 .303
Jake Rogers 250 .198 .281 .374 83 .176 .276 5 1.1 .287
Kerry Carpenter 488 .249 .305 .439 107 .191 .293 0 1.1 .318
Zack Short 481 .202 .308 .329 80 .127 .284 1 1.0 .285
Andrew Navigato 427 .225 .288 .346 78 .121 .284 6 1.0 .279
Andy Ibáñez 430 .262 .322 .392 100 .130 .301 4 1.0 .312
Wenceel Perez 460 .245 .299 .373 88 .128 .295 -1 0.9 .292
Akil Baddoo 410 .238 .315 .385 96 .148 .313 1 0.8 .306
Dustin Garneau 221 .200 .285 .359 80 .159 .266 3 0.8 .284
John Valente 291 .260 .310 .338 83 .078 .289 2 0.7 .287
Brendon Davis 557 .223 .298 .376 89 .153 .287 -4 0.7 .294
Dillon Dingler 412 .203 .277 .327 70 .124 .299 2 0.6 .268
Mario Feliciano 347 .248 .294 .382 89 .134 .308 -5 0.6 .293
Quincy Nieporte 452 .246 .294 .417 98 .171 .277 2 0.5 .304
Corey Joyce 313 .215 .307 .324 79 .109 .286 -1 0.5 .284
Parker Meadows 527 .226 .286 .358 80 .132 .287 0 0.5 .280
Michael Papierski 367 .213 .309 .301 74 .088 .274 -1 0.5 .277
Josh Crouch 409 .227 .279 .339 73 .112 .280 0 0.4 .271
Donny Sands 321 .238 .305 .355 86 .117 .284 -5 0.4 .291
Michael De La Cruz 127 .230 .315 .354 89 .124 .293 -1 0.3 .297
Jermaine Palacios 474 .227 .281 .346 76 .119 .296 -2 0.3 .275
Steele Walker 410 .233 .288 .352 79 .119 .274 5 0.2 .281
Justyn-Henry Malloy 533 .226 .319 .347 88 .121 .308 -2 0.2 .297
Eduardo Valencia 190 .234 .302 .327 78 .094 .291 -2 0.1 .281
Julio E. Rodriguez 270 .216 .285 .322 71 .106 .283 -2 0.1 .271
Jake Holton 441 .221 .317 .336 85 .115 .283 1 0.1 .294
Tyler Nevin 447 .223 .300 .346 82 .123 .271 -5 0.0 .286
Brady Policelli 337 .211 .276 .341 73 .130 .278 -4 0.0 .272
Colt Keith 244 .229 .291 .354 81 .126 .297 -2 0.0 .283
Gage Workman 508 .203 .250 .338 64 .135 .315 1 0.0 .256
Chris Rabago 191 .191 .263 .260 49 .069 .282 2 0.0 .239
Izaac Pacheco 423 .219 .274 .329 69 .111 .298 2 -0.1 .264
Luis Garcia 354 .188 .276 .278 57 .089 .271 3 -0.1 .252
Jacob Robson 351 .217 .308 .327 80 .110 .343 -6 -0.1 .285
Diego Rincones 343 .249 .300 .363 86 .114 .283 0 -0.2 .290
Trei Cruz 440 .196 .285 .289 63 .093 .286 -2 -0.2 .259
Jon Rosoff 151 .216 .278 .252 52 .036 .280 0 -0.2 .242
Miguel Cabrera 411 .250 .309 .347 85 .097 .317 0 -0.2 .287
Andrew Knapp 250 .204 .276 .319 67 .115 .279 -4 -0.3 .265
Bryant Packard 299 .236 .285 .355 79 .120 .296 -2 -0.3 .280
Matt Vierling 455 .239 .297 .353 83 .114 .292 -11 -0.5 .285
Dylan Rosa 268 .191 .250 .329 62 .138 .307 -1 -0.9 .254
Jose King 304 .196 .232 .280 44 .084 .301 2 -1.0 .225
Eric De La Rosa 321 .192 .265 .282 55 .089 .321 -4 -1.0 .247
Roberto Campos 428 .223 .271 .333 69 .110 .299 -9 -1.1 .264
Daniel Cabrera 490 .222 .269 .332 69 .110 .282 -2 -1.3 .262
Jack López 334 .205 .247 .304 55 .099 .303 -1 -1.3 .242
Ben Malgeri 416 .205 .294 .287 65 .082 .303 -10 -1.3 .265

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Javier Báez Ian Desmond Nelson Teilon Cotton Tierney
Riley Greene Paul Jernigan Herm Winningham Bernie Williams
Austin Meadows Gene Woodling Bobby Higginson Brian Giles
Ryan Kreidler Mike Ahmed Jimmy Sexton Dave Edler
Jonathan Schoop Tracy Woodson Billy Moran Jim Baumer
Spencer Torkelson Sid Bream Bill Moore John Milner
Nick Maton John Powers Van Kelly Ted Schreiber
Andre Lipcius Ed Giovanola Larry Wolfe Christian Lopes
Eric Haase Jarrod Saltalamacchia Bob Brenly Tom Murphy
Jake Rogers Billy Bryan Troy Afenir Duke Sims
Kerry Carpenter Doug Howard Jason Lane Neil Chrisley
Zack Short George Foussianes Don Buddin Max Moroff
Andrew Navigato Frank White Brian Turang Chris Nelson
Andy Ibáñez B.J. Surhoff Corban Joseph Charlie Moore
Wenceel Perez Jean Segura Yung-Chi Chen Mark Johnson
Akil Baddoo Bobby Thompson Barry Shetrone Bill Mott
Dustin Garneau Doug Mirabelli Ron Karkovice Kelly Shoppach
John Valente Mike Caruso Bridger Hunt Miguel Cairo
Brendon Davis Greg Norton Tim Hulett Marshall McDougall
Dillon Dingler John Gibbons Joel Skinner Jack Fimple
Mario Feliciano Phil Clark Carlos Hernandez Andy Pasillas
Quincy Nieporte Rip Russell Derek Hacopian Eddie Robinson
Corey Joyce Dick Schofield Matt Moschetti Andrew Navigato
Parker Meadows Bill Virdon Mike Lum Ed Palat
Michael Papierski Tim Blackwell A.J. Ellis Mark Johnson
Josh Crouch Jim Deidel Dan Wilson James Lang
Donny Sands Neil Garcia Dave Skaggs Joe Nolan
Michael De La Cruz Joe Pignatano Eric Christopherson Bud Bulling
Jermaine Palacios Brandon Wilson Ian Desmond Alex Gonzalez
Steele Walker Ryan Fleming Nyls Nyman Glen Gorbous
Justyn-Henry Malloy Tom Kelly Don Barbara Dick Billings
Eduardo Valencia Alexis Wilson Daniel Winslow Randy Rouse
Julio E. Rodriguez Kirk Pierce Glenn Ezell Dave Stenhouse
Jake Holton Connor Joe Sam Eberle Dustin Yount
Tyler Nevin Jerry Maddox Tommy Bianco Dave Payton
Brady Policelli Tracy Cowger Ed Sadowski Lance Koenig
Colt Keith Thomas Higgins David Hall Gary Barakat
Gage Workman Robert Marcano Antonio Perez Jason Dellaero
Chris Rabago Jose Gonzalez Len Okrie John Nathans
Izaac Pacheco Mike Morse Darnell Coles Matt Moses
Luis Garcia Oliver Dominguez David Markey Chad Sheffer
Jacob Robson Chris Dickerson Sam Haggerty Jermaine Mitchell
Diego Rincones M.P. Cokinos Justin Ringo Dean Decillis
Trei Cruz Arquimedes Gamboa Craig Ringe Danny Adams
Jon Rosoff Francisco Diaz Brent Mayne George Enright
Miguel Cabrera Ray Knight Lou Merloni Eric Karros
Andrew Knapp Jeff Mathis Danny Breeden Mike Rose
Bryant Packard Perry Dunn Drew Muren Danny Bautista
Matt Vierling Matt Szczur Mike Tauchman Marty Perez
Dylan Rosa Josh Banda Sean Hearn Scott Krieger
Jose King J.D. Vidal Preston Harriman Jason Christian
Eric De La Rosa Bobby Bonds Jay Woolf Connor Myers
Roberto Campos Rudy Guillen Luis Sumoza Joseph Cammarata
Daniel Cabrera Bligh Madris Ken Scarpace Brandon Pico
Jack López Brandon Barnes 반즈 Tito Landrum Ryan Knox
Ben Malgeri Lavell Cudjo Deron McCue Charlie Neal

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Javier Báez .274 .315 .474 116 4.3 .220 .263 .372 78 1.5
Riley Greene .285 .355 .468 129 4.0 .224 .295 .357 84 1.1
Austin Meadows .292 .370 .536 151 3.7 .239 .321 .421 107 1.1
Ryan Kreidler .245 .323 .400 102 2.5 .196 .276 .302 66 0.6
Jonathan Schoop .277 .318 .449 112 2.7 .226 .268 .357 74 0.1
Spencer Torkelson .264 .351 .473 130 2.8 .209 .297 .360 89 0.1
Nick Maton .255 .332 .407 106 2.0 .202 .281 .318 68 0.2
Andre Lipcius .262 .341 .396 106 2.3 .213 .291 .314 71 0.1
Eric Haase .252 .311 .477 115 2.1 .197 .257 .368 73 0.2
Jake Rogers .228 .313 .442 109 1.9 .171 .251 .314 58 0.4
Kerry Carpenter .273 .329 .495 128 2.3 .225 .280 .392 89 -0.1
Zack Short .228 .332 .376 97 2.0 .173 .280 .290 61 -0.2
Andrew Navigato .254 .317 .393 97 2.1 .201 .264 .310 61 0.2
Andy Ibáñez .293 .352 .438 121 2.2 .234 .296 .341 79 0.0
Wenceel Perez .273 .327 .421 108 2.0 .220 .275 .331 70 -0.1
Akil Baddoo .267 .341 .442 116 1.8 .211 .285 .339 76 -0.3
Dustin Garneau .228 .314 .432 102 1.3 .173 .261 .294 56 0.1
John Valente .290 .339 .378 102 1.4 .228 .276 .293 62 -0.1
Brendon Davis .248 .317 .425 108 1.9 .196 .272 .328 70 -0.5
Dillon Dingler .231 .304 .382 89 1.5 .174 .250 .277 49 -0.4
Mario Feliciano .276 .318 .429 107 1.3 .220 .269 .338 71 -0.2
Quincy Nieporte .272 .321 .464 119 1.7 .218 .266 .367 78 -0.5
Corey Joyce .241 .334 .383 100 1.4 .186 .282 .278 60 -0.2
Parker Meadows .251 .312 .396 98 1.7 .202 .263 .313 63 -0.6
Michael Papierski .246 .341 .356 94 1.4 .181 .278 .259 55 -0.5
Josh Crouch .254 .305 .386 91 1.3 .201 .256 .293 57 -0.4
Donny Sands .270 .339 .410 108 1.3 .211 .282 .313 69 -0.3
Michael De La Cruz .264 .347 .416 112 0.6 .204 .287 .307 69 0.0
Jermaine Palacios .251 .305 .388 95 1.4 .200 .253 .296 57 -0.8
Steele Walker .261 .315 .402 99 1.2 .207 .261 .305 60 -0.7
Justyn-Henry Malloy .253 .349 .391 107 1.5 .198 .294 .305 71 -0.9
Eduardo Valencia .264 .334 .378 100 0.7 .201 .271 .283 58 -0.3
Julio E. Rodriguez .245 .313 .366 90 0.8 .185 .252 .282 49 -0.6
Jake Holton .247 .342 .384 105 1.1 .196 .291 .291 68 -0.9
Tyler Nevin .250 .326 .388 99 0.9 .196 .273 .303 64 -1.0
Brady Policelli .244 .310 .392 95 1.0 .183 .248 .291 54 -0.8
Colt Keith .259 .319 .410 103 0.7 .201 .260 .304 61 -0.6
Gage Workman .227 .276 .386 83 1.2 .178 .226 .289 45 -1.3
Chris Rabago .218 .297 .306 70 0.5 .161 .230 .224 30 -0.5
Izaac Pacheco .247 .301 .375 87 0.9 .196 .247 .285 52 -1.0
Luis Garcia .221 .312 .325 79 0.9 .159 .249 .229 36 -1.0
Jacob Robson .246 .337 .374 99 0.7 .188 .276 .281 59 -1.1
Diego Rincones .273 .324 .417 105 0.7 .222 .275 .322 69 -0.9
Trei Cruz .223 .312 .334 83 0.9 .163 .256 .244 42 -1.3
Jon Rosoff .254 .316 .296 75 0.2 .183 .243 .212 32 -0.6
Miguel Cabrera .281 .339 .391 104 0.7 .218 .279 .301 65 -1.3
Andrew Knapp .233 .307 .372 87 0.3 .176 .247 .268 48 -0.9
Bryant Packard .262 .313 .403 100 0.4 .215 .263 .317 65 -0.9
Matt Vierling .265 .320 .399 100 0.5 .213 .270 .311 63 -1.6
Dylan Rosa .216 .277 .379 81 -0.3 .164 .224 .274 40 -1.6
Jose King .225 .259 .321 61 -0.3 .172 .204 .234 25 -1.8
Eric De La Rosa .220 .288 .326 73 -0.3 .163 .236 .240 37 -1.8
Roberto Campos .252 .297 .380 89 -0.1 .193 .240 .289 49 -2.2
Daniel Cabrera .251 .295 .375 86 -0.2 .195 .245 .285 50 -2.4
Jack López .232 .274 .350 75 -0.4 .177 .219 .264 36 -2.1
Ben Malgeri .227 .318 .330 84 -0.3 .177 .270 .249 49 -2.1

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Alex Lange R 27 5 5 3.47 68 0 62.3 48 24 5 30 80
Andrew Chafin L 33 3 2 3.51 65 1 56.3 50 22 6 18 59
Jason Foley R 27 1 1 3.84 59 0 61.0 64 26 4 14 46
Eduardo Rodriguez L 30 7 9 3.88 25 25 132.3 130 57 14 44 131
Michael Lorenzen R 31 6 7 3.94 26 16 98.3 86 43 9 41 82
Will Vest R 28 3 3 4.03 56 0 60.3 57 27 6 22 58
Nick Vincent R 36 3 4 4.06 39 1 44.3 44 20 6 12 41
Wilmer Flores R 22 5 8 4.11 27 26 107.3 100 49 12 34 100
Matthew Boyd L 32 5 6 4.14 19 16 91.3 84 42 13 29 99
Miguel Del Pozo L 30 3 3 4.14 49 0 45.7 42 21 5 19 49
Trey Wingenter R 29 2 2 4.17 40 1 41.0 32 19 5 16 53
Jake Higginbotham L 27 3 3 4.18 44 0 47.3 48 22 5 16 35
Reese Olson R 23 6 8 4.19 24 23 111.7 102 52 12 46 109
José Cisnero R 34 2 3 4.20 48 0 45.0 40 21 4 25 43
Tarik Skubal L 26 6 9 4.20 23 22 115.7 107 54 18 35 121
Brant Hurter L 24 5 7 4.38 24 17 98.7 97 48 14 23 83
Ricardo Sanchez L 26 5 8 4.38 24 24 115.0 121 56 12 37 83
Alex Powers R 31 1 1 4.46 26 1 34.3 31 17 4 16 35
Joe Navilhon R 29 3 4 4.47 36 2 52.3 53 26 7 19 46
Ty Madden R 23 5 9 4.47 25 25 112.7 111 56 14 41 94
Michael Pineda R 34 5 8 4.48 19 18 88.3 97 44 14 19 64
Chasen Shreve L 32 1 3 4.50 39 0 40.0 37 20 5 17 37
Sawyer Gipson-Long R 25 6 10 4.50 22 21 102.0 106 51 13 31 83
Wily Peralta R 34 2 4 4.50 29 11 68.0 67 34 9 32 55
Kervin Castro R 24 3 5 4.53 41 2 57.7 54 29 6 28 53
Spencer Turnbull R 30 4 6 4.56 14 14 75.0 73 38 8 30 65
Edwin Uceta R 25 3 5 4.56 32 10 73.0 65 37 9 35 79
Matt Manning R 25 4 7 4.58 21 21 96.3 98 49 13 33 79
Luis Castillo R 28 2 5 4.60 40 0 47.0 49 24 6 16 38
Casey Mize R 26 4 8 4.60 22 22 107.7 106 55 17 30 81
Beau Brieske R 25 4 7 4.61 19 19 93.7 94 48 14 28 73
Mason Englert R 23 5 8 4.62 23 23 103.3 103 53 13 36 84
Garrett Hill R 27 4 7 4.66 26 20 104.3 99 54 14 44 97
Daniel Norris L 30 3 4 4.66 38 9 75.3 71 39 11 29 71
Brendan White R 24 4 6 4.67 35 7 71.3 71 37 9 23 59
Sam Howard L 30 2 3 4.71 47 2 42.0 38 22 6 24 46
Nolan Blackwood R 28 2 2 4.76 40 1 51.0 54 27 6 22 34
Dario Gardea R 24 1 2 4.78 39 1 49.0 51 26 8 14 40
Shea Spitzbarth R 28 2 4 4.81 44 1 48.7 48 26 6 27 40
Tyler Alexander L 28 5 9 4.81 27 15 91.7 97 49 13 28 63
Ricardo Pinto 핀토 R 29 4 9 4.82 22 11 84.0 86 45 10 38 67
Austin Bergner R 26 3 6 4.82 24 19 93.3 93 50 13 43 80
Layne Henderson R 27 3 5 4.84 29 0 44.7 42 24 6 27 48
Carlos Pena L 24 3 5 4.85 22 14 81.7 83 44 11 32 67
Miguel Diaz R 28 3 5 4.85 49 2 59.3 57 32 8 28 53
Markus Solbach R 31 3 4 4.88 15 13 59.0 65 32 8 20 42
Angel De Jesus R 26 2 4 4.91 46 1 55.0 52 30 7 29 49
Michael Mariot R 34 3 5 4.91 15 13 66.0 73 36 9 26 41
Alex Faedo R 27 3 6 4.92 16 15 75.0 79 41 13 24 67
Yaya Chentouf R 26 3 5 4.92 43 0 56.7 59 31 8 22 44
Daniel Ponce de Leon R 31 5 10 4.93 22 19 91.3 87 50 11 52 81
Cody Sedlock R 28 3 5 4.98 25 13 77.7 79 43 10 37 65
Adam Wolf L 26 3 7 5.00 26 13 81.0 87 45 12 34 62
Bubba Derby R 29 3 5 5.01 23 6 59.3 62 33 8 24 46
Billy Lescher R 27 1 2 5.01 36 1 41.3 43 23 7 16 35
Rony García R 25 3 5 5.03 18 11 68.0 66 38 12 26 63
Chance Kirby R 27 3 7 5.03 23 17 93.0 100 52 15 30 65
Zach Logue L 27 5 11 5.04 26 22 119.7 127 67 18 42 88
Joey Wentz L 25 3 6 5.05 20 20 82.0 81 46 13 42 74
Sean Guenther L 27 2 3 5.06 26 1 42.7 46 24 7 13 36
Aneurys Zabala R 26 1 2 5.11 28 1 37.0 35 21 4 23 36
Logan Shore R 28 2 6 5.18 22 11 64.3 71 37 9 29 41
Bryan Garcia R 28 2 6 5.27 41 10 80.3 83 47 12 37 60
Nivaldo Rodriguez R 26 3 6 5.29 19 13 66.3 73 39 10 30 42
Chavez Fernander R 25 2 4 5.32 35 2 45.7 47 27 6 23 34
Brenan Hanifee R 25 3 8 5.38 17 16 75.3 84 45 12 29 51
Rámon Rosso R 27 2 5 5.40 22 15 75.0 77 45 12 38 64
Elvin Rodriguez R 25 4 8 5.47 24 21 105.3 113 64 18 42 80
Elvis Alvarado R 24 2 6 5.48 39 1 46.0 48 28 6 24 35
Andrew Magno L 25 1 2 5.85 42 0 40.0 37 26 5 34 39
Jared Tobey L 27 1 2 5.88 34 0 33.7 35 22 6 22 31
Zack Hess R 26 1 3 6.44 27 0 29.3 29 21 5 24 28

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Alex Lange 62.3 11.6 4.3 0.7 10.9% 29.1% .295 119 3.31 84 0.9
Andrew Chafin 56.3 9.4 2.9 1.0 7.6% 25.0% .293 117 3.51 85 0.8
Jason Foley 61.0 6.8 2.1 0.6 5.4% 17.9% .313 108 3.33 93 0.3
Eduardo Rodriguez 132.3 8.9 3.0 1.0 7.8% 23.3% .311 106 3.61 94 2.1
Michael Lorenzen 98.3 7.5 3.8 0.8 9.8% 19.6% .272 105 4.02 95 1.5
Will Vest 60.3 8.7 3.3 0.9 8.4% 22.1% .300 102 3.77 98 0.2
Nick Vincent 44.3 8.3 2.4 1.2 6.4% 21.9% .299 102 4.08 98 0.2
Wilmer Flores 107.3 8.4 2.9 1.0 7.5% 22.1% .291 100 4.03 100 1.4
Matthew Boyd 91.3 9.8 2.9 1.3 7.6% 25.8% .296 100 3.95 100 1.1
Miguel Del Pozo 45.7 9.7 3.7 1.0 9.5% 24.6% .303 100 3.81 100 0.1
Trey Wingenter 41.0 11.6 3.5 1.1 9.3% 30.8% .284 99 3.62 101 0.2
Jake Higginbotham 47.3 6.7 3.0 1.0 7.9% 17.2% .295 99 4.13 101 0.1
Reese Olson 111.7 8.8 3.7 1.0 9.6% 22.7% .292 98 3.97 102 1.4
José Cisnero 45.0 8.6 5.0 0.8 12.6% 21.6% .288 98 4.26 102 0.1
Tarik Skubal 115.7 9.4 2.7 1.4 7.2% 25.0% .290 98 4.10 102 1.4
Brant Hurter 98.7 7.6 2.1 1.3 5.5% 19.7% .287 94 4.17 106 1.0
Ricardo Sanchez 115.0 6.5 2.9 0.9 7.4% 16.7% .301 94 4.19 106 1.1
Alex Powers 34.3 9.2 4.2 1.0 10.7% 23.5% .290 93 4.29 108 0.0
Joe Navilhon 52.3 7.9 3.3 1.2 8.4% 20.3% .301 92 4.40 108 0.1
Ty Madden 112.7 7.5 3.3 1.1 8.5% 19.4% .291 92 4.35 108 1.1
Michael Pineda 88.3 6.5 1.9 1.4 5.0% 17.0% .300 92 4.48 109 0.8
Chasen Shreve 40.0 8.3 3.8 1.1 9.9% 21.5% .286 92 4.28 109 -0.1
Sawyer Gipson-Long 102.0 7.3 2.7 1.1 7.1% 18.9% .302 92 4.21 109 0.9
Wily Peralta 68.0 7.3 4.2 1.2 10.7% 18.4% .287 92 4.80 109 0.4
Kervin Castro 57.7 8.3 4.4 0.9 11.0% 20.8% .293 91 4.28 110 0.1
Spencer Turnbull 75.0 7.8 3.6 1.0 9.2% 19.9% .295 90 4.33 111 0.6
Edwin Uceta 73.0 9.7 4.3 1.1 11.0% 24.9% .293 90 4.24 111 0.4
Matt Manning 96.3 7.4 3.1 1.2 7.9% 19.0% .295 90 4.36 111 0.8
Luis Castillo 47.0 7.3 3.1 1.1 7.9% 18.7% .303 90 4.41 111 -0.1
Casey Mize 107.7 6.8 2.5 1.4 6.6% 17.8% .276 90 4.76 111 0.8
Beau Brieske 93.7 7.0 2.7 1.3 7.0% 18.3% .285 89 4.56 112 0.7
Mason Englert 103.3 7.3 3.1 1.1 8.1% 18.8% .292 89 4.44 112 0.8
Garrett Hill 104.3 8.4 3.8 1.2 9.7% 21.4% .289 89 4.53 113 0.7
Daniel Norris 75.3 8.5 3.5 1.3 9.0% 21.9% .286 89 4.44 113 0.3
Brendan White 71.3 7.4 2.9 1.1 7.6% 19.4% .292 88 4.49 113 0.3
Sam Howard 42.0 9.9 5.1 1.3 12.8% 24.6% .294 88 4.75 114 -0.1
Nolan Blackwood 51.0 6.0 3.9 1.1 9.6% 14.8% .294 87 4.76 115 -0.2
Dario Gardea 49.0 7.3 2.6 1.5 6.6% 18.9% .295 86 4.75 116 -0.1
Shea Spitzbarth 48.7 7.4 5.0 1.1 12.4% 18.3% .292 86 4.96 117 -0.2
Tyler Alexander 91.7 6.2 2.7 1.3 7.1% 16.0% .291 86 4.64 117 0.4
Ricardo Pinto 84.0 7.2 4.1 1.1 10.1% 17.8% .298 86 4.68 117 0.3
Austin Bergner 93.3 7.7 4.1 1.3 10.3% 19.2% .293 86 4.76 117 0.5
Layne Henderson 44.7 9.7 5.4 1.2 13.2% 23.5% .303 85 4.63 117 -0.2
Carlos Pena 81.7 7.4 3.5 1.2 8.9% 18.7% .295 85 4.66 118 0.4
Miguel Diaz 59.3 8.0 4.2 1.2 10.6% 20.2% .288 85 4.64 118 -0.1
Markus Solbach 59.0 6.4 3.1 1.2 7.7% 16.2% .305 85 4.66 118 0.2
Angel De Jesus 55.0 8.0 4.7 1.1 11.7% 19.8% .287 84 4.99 119 -0.3
Michael Mariot 66.0 5.6 3.5 1.2 8.8% 13.9% .296 84 5.05 119 0.2
Alex Faedo 75.0 8.0 2.9 1.6 7.4% 20.6% .301 84 4.74 119 0.3
Yaya Chentouf 56.7 7.0 3.5 1.3 8.8% 17.6% .295 84 4.76 119 -0.3
Daniel Ponce de Leon 91.3 8.0 5.1 1.1 12.7% 19.8% .290 84 4.85 119 0.3
Cody Sedlock 77.7 7.5 4.3 1.2 10.7% 18.7% .299 83 4.78 121 0.2
Adam Wolf 81.0 6.9 3.8 1.3 9.4% 17.1% .300 83 4.96 121 0.2
Bubba Derby 59.3 7.0 3.6 1.2 9.2% 17.6% .297 82 4.87 121 0.0
Billy Lescher 41.3 7.6 3.5 1.5 8.8% 19.2% .295 82 5.04 121 -0.2
Rony García 68.0 8.3 3.4 1.6 8.9% 21.5% .284 82 4.96 122 0.1
Chance Kirby 93.0 6.3 2.9 1.5 7.4% 16.1% .291 82 4.98 122 0.2
Zach Logue 119.7 6.6 3.2 1.4 8.1% 16.9% .294 82 4.89 122 0.3
Joey Wentz 82.0 8.1 4.6 1.4 11.4% 20.2% .291 82 5.02 122 0.3
Sean Guenther 42.7 7.6 2.7 1.5 7.0% 19.4% .305 81 4.65 123 -0.2
Aneurys Zabala 37.0 8.8 5.6 1.0 13.5% 21.1% .301 81 4.88 124 -0.2
Logan Shore 64.3 5.7 4.1 1.3 9.9% 14.0% .297 80 5.19 125 0.0
Bryan Garcia 80.3 6.7 4.1 1.3 10.2% 16.6% .289 78 5.13 128 -0.2
Nivaldo Rodriguez 66.3 5.7 4.1 1.4 10.0% 14.0% .293 78 5.29 128 -0.1
Chavez Fernander 45.7 6.7 4.5 1.2 11.2% 16.5% .293 78 5.15 129 -0.3
Brenan Hanifee 75.3 6.1 3.5 1.4 8.6% 15.0% .299 77 5.30 130 -0.1
Rámon Rosso 75.0 7.7 4.6 1.4 11.2% 18.9% .294 76 5.41 131 -0.2
Elvin Rodriguez 105.3 6.8 3.6 1.5 9.0% 17.1% .294 75 5.28 133 -0.2
Elvis Alvarado 46.0 6.8 4.7 1.2 11.4% 16.6% .298 75 5.22 133 -0.6
Andrew Magno 40.0 8.8 7.7 1.1 17.4% 20.0% .291 71 5.68 142 -0.7
Jared Tobey 33.7 8.3 5.9 1.6 13.8% 19.4% .299 70 5.86 143 -0.6
Zack Hess 29.3 8.6 7.4 1.5 16.9% 19.7% .293 64 6.12 156 -0.7

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Alex Lange Greg Holland Jack Baldschun Brian Wilson 1.5 0.1 2.81 4.35
Andrew Chafin Bobby Shantz Ramon Hernandez Tony Watson 1.4 0.0 2.60 4.70
Jason Foley Jeff Gray Ryan Webb Pedro Borbon 0.8 -0.1 3.17 4.59
Eduardo Rodriguez Joe Nuxhall Jerry Reuss Jose Quintana 3.0 0.9 3.31 4.65
Michael Lorenzen Alexi Ogando 오간도 Jim Bullinger Bob Buhl 2.2 0.6 3.43 4.51
Will Vest Matt Roney Larry Kendig Gary Buckels 0.7 -0.3 3.41 4.89
Nick Vincent Donn Pall Bobby Tiefenauer Orlando Pena 0.6 -0.3 3.26 5.14
Wilmer Flores Jackson Todd Frank Castillo Willie Adams 2.2 0.5 3.47 4.94
Matthew Boyd Art Nehf Ed Brandt Howie Pollet 1.8 0.2 3.55 5.07
Miguel Del Pozo Mark Lee Buddy Boshers Tommy Hottovy 0.7 -0.5 3.29 5.29
Trey Wingenter Josh Fields Clyde Reichard Juan Jaime 0.8 -0.2 3.22 5.32
Jake Higginbotham John Davolio John Bauer Rusty Kilgo 0.5 -0.3 3.58 4.96
Reese Olson Jake Odorizzi Charlie Beamon Jhoulys Chacín 2.1 0.4 3.70 4.96
José Cisnero Santiago Casilla Mace Brown Felix Rodriguez 로드리게스 0.6 -0.5 3.39 5.40
Tarik Skubal Dennis Bennett Greg Swindell Floyd Bannister 2.2 0.4 3.66 4.86
Brant Hurter Mat Batts Dan Osterbrock Todd Douma 1.9 0.3 3.70 5.07
Ricardo Sanchez Lawrence Staab Matt Gage Andrew Lorraine 1.8 0.3 3.91 5.08
Alex Powers Dave Wallace Joe Cascarella Hector Heredia 0.4 -0.4 3.67 5.37
Joe Navilhon Matt Karchner Brian Smith Mike Devine 0.5 -0.4 3.85 5.31
Ty Madden Donnie Moore Dave Melendez Gordie Pladson 1.8 0.3 3.94 5.06
Michael Pineda Don Newcombe Larry Benton Doyle Alexander 1.4 0.2 3.88 5.17
Chasen Shreve Forrest Thompson Mike Matthews John Grabow 0.3 -0.5 3.74 5.52
Sawyer Gipson-Long Michel Laplante Rick White Erik Arnesen 1.6 0.1 3.93 5.24
Wily Peralta Alfredo Simon Bill McGee Tom Hurd 0.9 -0.2 3.94 5.40
Kervin Castro Jose Rodriguez Carl Shelen Chris Bennett 0.6 -0.4 3.95 5.25
Spencer Turnbull Larry Maxie Kelly Downs Danny Gutierrez 1.1 0.0 3.89 5.38
Edwin Uceta Yoervis Medina Cal Santarelli Ernesto Frieri 1.1 -0.4 3.83 5.52
Matt Manning Jack Fisher Doug Mlicki Alfredo Figaro 피가로 1.4 0.1 4.00 5.22
Luis Castillo Dave Gil Kevin Crafton Ryan Doolittle 0.3 -0.5 3.93 5.43
Casey Mize Yonny Chirinos Zach Plesac Eric Rasmussen 1.5 0.1 4.10 5.21
Beau Brieske Cody Anderson Tom Chamberlain Luis Andujar 1.4 0.1 4.07 5.26
Mason Englert Dave Pavlas Dave Borkowski Matt Andriese 1.5 0.0 4.09 5.30
Garrett Hill Jorge De Paula Claudio Vargas Calvin Maduro 1.4 0.0 4.18 5.28
Daniel Norris Chuck Stobbs Bill Henry Don Carman 0.9 -0.3 3.96 5.47
Brendan White Russ Kibler Justin Souza Dan Greenhalgh 0.9 -0.2 3.94 5.35
Sam Howard Matt Smith Charlie Manning Neal Cotts 0.4 -0.7 3.93 5.92
Nolan Blackwood Tony Hudson Richie Barker Jamie Vermilyea 0.2 -0.6 4.29 5.54
Dario Gardea Mike Blais Jerrod Fuell Jose Monegro 0.3 -0.6 3.98 5.59
Shea Spitzbarth Juan Cerros Terry Bross Bob Chakales 0.2 -0.7 4.19 5.65
Tyler Alexander Mike Caldwell Neal Heaton Rick Honeycutt 0.9 -0.3 4.34 5.48
Ricardo Pinto Thomas Arruda Matt Zaleski Kasey Olenberger 0.9 -0.3 4.28 5.44
Austin Bergner Jeff Shaw Tom Hatch Jason Bahr 1.1 -0.3 4.33 5.46
Layne Henderson David Carpenter Andy Cavazos Jason Shiell 0.2 -0.6 4.07 5.67
Carlos Pena Ryan Moskau Brett Martin Ed Puig 0.9 -0.3 4.33 5.53
Miguel Diaz Scott Cassidy Edwin Moreno Kyle Martin 0.3 -0.7 4.19 5.77
Markus Solbach Ken Krahenbuhl Chi-Chi Olivo Matt Wright라이트 0.6 -0.2 4.28 5.53
Angel De Jesus Jeff Nelson Eddie Gaillard Steve Shea 0.1 -0.8 4.33 5.74
Michael Mariot Al Fitzmorris Jose Pina Salvador Valdez 0.6 -0.3 4.42 5.68
Alex Faedo Tyler Garkow Rick Forney David McWatters 0.9 -0.3 4.28 5.64
Yaya Chentouf Aaron Hartsock Brandon Harmsen Jim McCready 0.2 -0.7 4.24 5.53
Daniel Ponce de Leon Charlie Puleo Steve Luebber Eddie Medina 1.0 -0.4 4.39 5.65
Cody Sedlock George Mecerod Jerry Hudgins Tim Crabbe 0.8 -0.5 4.38 5.65
Adam Wolf Joe Horgan Derrick Van Dusen John Gragg 0.6 -0.5 4.51 5.66
Bubba Derby Hector Ramirez Brian Edmondson Bob Wells 0.5 -0.4 4.42 5.65
Billy Lescher John Nurthen Paul Josephson Bob Wells 0.1 -0.6 4.37 5.86
Rony García Francisco Barrios Paulo DeLeon Chris Corn 0.6 -0.4 4.34 5.77
Chance Kirby Mule Watson Conor Fisk Ken Larsen 0.9 -0.4 4.46 5.55
Zach Logue Jason Wheeler 휠러 David Huff 허프 Mike Maroth 1.0 -0.8 4.51 5.81
Joey Wentz Ted Klamm Allen McDill Bill Pulsipher 0.9 -0.4 4.43 5.75
Sean Guenther Ryan Falcon Brady Bowen Jeff Ibarra 0.2 -0.6 4.34 6.04
Aneurys Zabala Tim Peters Russell Clark Don Bright 0.1 -0.5 4.52 5.88
Logan Shore Joel Navarro Gary Goldsmith Guadalupe Perez 0.3 -0.4 4.72 5.75
Bryan Garcia Luis Munoz Kyle Drabek Ken Spratke 0.4 -0.8 4.67 6.00
Nivaldo Rodriguez Trey Nielsen Ed Klepacki Jim Abbott 0.4 -0.5 4.79 5.86
Chavez Fernander Jacobo Sequea Stephen Perakslis Dan Johnston 0.0 -0.7 4.77 5.92
Brenan Hanifee Troy Evers Erik Dessau Brett Kennedy 0.4 -0.6 4.82 5.92
Rámon Rosso Brian Ahern Jason Secoda Travis Anderson 0.4 -0.8 4.82 6.23
Elvin Rodriguez JT Brubaker Garrett Schilling Jon Harris 0.5 -0.9 4.93 6.07
Elvis Alvarado Ronnie Richardson Archie Shamblin Jason Townsend -0.2 -0.9 4.87 6.11
Andrew Magno Alan McKay Richard Dare Bob Cluck -0.4 -1.2 5.11 6.99
Jared Tobey Eric Place Pete Cappadona Ben Griset -0.3 -1.1 5.11 7.09
Zack Hess Landon Stockman Ray Perkins Walter Strong -0.4 -1.0 5.73 7.72

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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theflusher
13 days ago

Massive ZIPS/Steamer gap on Vierling, wow. ZIPS seems to still care a lot about long-ago minor league performance than it does recent Statcast data for sure

lavarnway
13 days ago
Reply to  theflusher

I would say the Steamer projection is more surprising than the ZiPS one. ZiPS is projecting a poor hitter to continue being a poor hitter. Steamer is projecting a poor hitter to all of the sudden be above average.

theflusher
13 days ago
Reply to  lavarnway

His xWOBA was .327 as a rookie. EV and HH rate both borderline elite. Seems promising, no?

lavarnway
13 days ago
Reply to  theflusher

Is there any evidence that xwoba is predictive? I’m really asking, I don’t know the answer. If so, he looks like a guy to watch.

cowdisciplemember
13 days ago
Reply to  lavarnway

I wish we could get an article on this. I believe the answer is no, and also that it really isn’t intended to be.

lavarnway
13 days ago
Reply to  cowdisciple

Yeah I’d like to see more about this too. My understanding is the same as yours. It would help to have more clarity though because I’ve seen fans and even analysts say “so and so’s xwoba is 30 points higher than his woba, we should see improvement going forward!” well do we? or is that just wishful fan talk.

sadtrombonemember
13 days ago
Reply to  lavarnway

xwOBA is sort of predictive, but my understanding is that Barrel% is much better.

Overall though, hitting the ball hard gives you a lot more room for growth than not. Especially if you can do it without turning into a strikeout machine.

cowdisciplemember
13 days ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

MLB says “xwOBA is more indicative of a player’s skill than regular wOBA.” I would love to know if that’s true, because Tango has said they’re not intended to be predictive.

It’s interesting data but I’ve never been clear on how to use it and how not to use it. I believe wOBA is more predictive of future wOBA given a sufficient sample, but that xwOBA can be more predictive in a smaller sample. I wish they had named them something else, because they get used like defense-independent pitching stats, which generally ARE more predictive.

sadtrombonemember
13 days ago
Reply to  cowdisciple

I think xwOBA does a very good job of capturing when a player has gotten unlucky or lucky. But skill or prediction is something else. Swings can be tough to maintain sometimes. I think that’s why barrel% is predictive beyond just the actual performance… it measures consistency of hitting solidly which is slightly different than what xwOBA measures. Flares have good xwOBA percentages if I recall correctly but hitting flares consistently isn’t easy.

All this is to say I think that xwOBA is probably not the best tool for this job even if it is probably correlated with other measures that would be meaningful and help.

cowdisciplemember
13 days ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Right. I think it also does not incorporate any directionality data, so it probably overvalues dead pull hitters and undervalues all-fields types.

fanofthemanmember
13 days ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I’d read an article at who was the king of each batted ball type. Or best and worst hitters in each category