2023 ZiPS Projections: Detroit Tigers
For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Detroit Tigers.
Batters
Oops! Last preseason, I regularly expressed guarded optimism that the Tigers had enough going for them that I thought they’d handily beat their rather grumpy ZiPS projection of 73 wins. While there are plenty of times when I win my personal disagreements with my creation, there are quite a lot when I don’t, and this was a particularly stark one! The Tigers were basically the anti-Orioles of ’22, with the vast majority of the roster leaving the season with a worse projection than they started it with, and the possibly-too-pessimistic ZiPS estimate turning out to be over-generous by seven games. So what happens now?
The relatively good news is that Detroit will likely get some boost simply from regression toward the mean — the so-called “dead cat bounce,” or what Bill James coined “the Plexiglass principle.” Jonathan Schoop, at 30, sported an OPS more than 160 points off his career numbers, and even if I feel worse about him, he would be hard-pressed to be that bad again. Similarly, Spencer Torkelson, a preseason contender for the Rookie of the Year last season, has lost a lot of the shine, especially given that his return to the minors was similarly bleak, but it would be hard for him not to improve on a .604 OPS.
Javier Báez had his worst full (normal-length) major league season offensively, but he still managed two WAR and is only a year removed from a legitimately All-Star level season (and just turned 30). ZiPS projects muted rebounds from Akil Baddoo and Austin Meadows, though injuries will always be a concern with the latter. The team’s multi-headed catcher situation would have to try to hit worse than Tucker Barnhart did. No similar bounceback is likely for Miguel Cabrera, though Albert Pujols looked toast-like and had a solid finale; the Tigers just aren’t likely to make a push to maximize his playing time with his milestone moments behind him.
So, if the Tigers’ offense is likely to be better, is it likely to be good? Not really. While the roster has a lot of players who you’d expect better from given their established abilities, having so many known quantities also limits just how much upside there is. Báez could be very solid, if flawed in many ways; there’s still hope for Torkelson; and Riley Greene, better than most Tigers in 2022, doesn’t have an appreciably diminished ceiling from a year ago. But where is the dream scenario? Bad teams have to be run so they at least have some future hope, and it’s hard to see an actual good offense constructed from the players currently within the organization. Detroit is more likely to spend money someday than the rest of the division, but this lineup is too flawed to be fixed by slapping on a high-priced player or two. It’s a mess, and new team president Scott Harris has a huge task ahead of him.
Pitchers
At least here, the Tigers can more accurately blame injuries for some of the bleakness. Going into the 2021 season, we had them with three of the 10 best pitching prospects in the majors: Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal, and Casey Mize, with players like Alex Faedo, Joey Wentz, and Beau Burrows looking like they had solid odds of being valuable back-of-the-rotation options. We were far from alone in this optimism, and while the team’s drafts had frequently failed to produce hitters, it looked like there would be a good pitching core to build around.
Manning showed some flashes in 2022, but he was also plagued by shoulder inflammation that cost him nearly four months of the season. Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June. Skubal, who has showed the most in the majors, is out for a sizable chunk of 2023 due to his own flexor tendon procedure. Beyond those three, the rotation remains relatively unexciting. Spencer Turnbull was a highly interesting success story, but he’s coming back from his own Tommy John surgery. Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen are stopgaps that would seem more fitting on a contending team that needs fifth starter/swingman depth. I’m still a fan of Eduardo Rodriguez, but he’s a definite question mark, though he may have the best short-term upside of any healthy pitcher on the team.
In other words, it’s not a bad group, but it’s also a very veteran one without a ton of upside (with the exceptions noted above). While I think the dream scenario here is a rosier one than that of the lineup, I don’t think it’s so compelling that it can overcome the run scoring. It just doesn’t feel great for what is largely a veteran team to have .500 upside.
Moving over to the bullpen, this was basically the only area of the team that had success in 2022. In terms of total WAR, it ranked seventh in baseball and finished just as highly in both ERA and FIP (so it wasn’t just a WPA quirk). Joe Jiménez and Gregory Soto are gone, but ZiPS still likes the returning Alex Lange and Jason Foley. The problem in the projection comes with the depth; the computer literally hates most of the options once you get past this point. If the projections are right, the Tigers will see their relief corps fall considerably down the ranks from 2022, but in truth, a bullpen doesn’t really matter until the lineup and rotation are functioning, and they will not have a whole lot of leads to protect.
Overall, there’s enough to like about the Tigers that ZiPS still sees them as a mid-70s win team, and this time I think my creation and I are in accord. Detroit does have a challenging road ahead; the problems that the new front office has to tackle are no less daunting than those of the Reds, Pirates, Royals, or Nationals, though not identical. With a great deal of similarity in how baseball’s top teams are constructed, MLB is becoming a good example of the Anna Karenina principle: happy teams are all alike; every unhappy team is unhappy in its own way.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.
Player | B | Age | PO | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Javier Báez | R | 30 | SS | 560 | 524 | 70 | 129 | 26 | 3 | 20 | 70 | 26 | 155 | 10 | 3 |
Riley Greene | L | 22 | CF | 538 | 483 | 70 | 122 | 22 | 5 | 14 | 61 | 48 | 145 | 5 | 4 |
Austin Meadows | L | 28 | RF | 491 | 432 | 62 | 115 | 25 | 5 | 18 | 66 | 49 | 90 | 4 | 3 |
Ryan Kreidler | R | 25 | SS | 441 | 390 | 55 | 86 | 17 | 2 | 10 | 49 | 39 | 131 | 10 | 3 |
Jonathan Schoop | R | 31 | 2B | 547 | 510 | 63 | 128 | 24 | 2 | 16 | 58 | 25 | 113 | 3 | 1 |
Spencer Torkelson | R | 23 | 1B | 543 | 473 | 64 | 111 | 24 | 1 | 21 | 66 | 57 | 132 | 1 | 2 |
Nick Maton | L | 26 | SS | 401 | 355 | 40 | 81 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 35 | 38 | 104 | 3 | 2 |
Andre Lipcius | R | 25 | 3B | 511 | 454 | 56 | 108 | 24 | 2 | 8 | 50 | 51 | 102 | 5 | 2 |
Eric Haase | R | 30 | C | 371 | 340 | 44 | 77 | 13 | 2 | 16 | 50 | 27 | 117 | 1 | 1 |
Jake Rogers | R | 28 | C | 250 | 222 | 29 | 44 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 31 | 22 | 86 | 1 | 1 |
Kerry Carpenter | L | 25 | LF | 488 | 446 | 58 | 111 | 24 | 2 | 19 | 70 | 30 | 113 | 3 | 5 |
Zack Short | R | 28 | SS | 481 | 410 | 56 | 83 | 20 | 1 | 10 | 47 | 59 | 143 | 5 | 3 |
Andrew Navigato | R | 25 | 2B | 427 | 387 | 49 | 87 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 49 | 26 | 103 | 7 | 4 |
Andy Ibáñez | R | 30 | 1B | 430 | 393 | 52 | 103 | 23 | 2 | 8 | 43 | 31 | 69 | 4 | 2 |
Wenceel Perez | B | 23 | 2B | 460 | 421 | 57 | 103 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 31 | 91 | 10 | 3 |
Akil Baddoo | L | 24 | LF | 410 | 366 | 50 | 87 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 40 | 41 | 108 | 15 | 6 |
Dustin Garneau | R | 35 | C | 221 | 195 | 21 | 39 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 18 | 65 | 0 | 1 |
John Valente | R | 28 | 3B | 291 | 269 | 30 | 70 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 17 | 32 | 7 | 2 |
Brendon Davis | R | 25 | 3B | 557 | 498 | 64 | 111 | 23 | 4 | 15 | 65 | 47 | 149 | 5 | 3 |
Dillon Dingler | R | 24 | C | 412 | 370 | 43 | 75 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 47 | 28 | 140 | 1 | 1 |
Mario Feliciano | R | 24 | C | 347 | 322 | 37 | 80 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 36 | 16 | 80 | 1 | 1 |
Quincy Nieporte | R | 28 | 1B | 452 | 415 | 46 | 102 | 21 | 1 | 16 | 58 | 26 | 88 | 1 | 1 |
Corey Joyce | R | 24 | SS | 313 | 275 | 35 | 59 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 35 | 28 | 84 | 4 | 2 |
Parker Meadows | L | 23 | CF | 527 | 478 | 58 | 108 | 19 | 4 | 12 | 58 | 37 | 131 | 8 | 4 |
Michael Papierski | B | 27 | C | 367 | 319 | 34 | 68 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 39 | 84 | 0 | 2 |
Josh Crouch | R | 24 | C | 409 | 375 | 40 | 85 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 42 | 25 | 92 | 0 | 1 |
Donny Sands | R | 27 | C | 321 | 290 | 33 | 69 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 28 | 65 | 1 | 1 |
Michael De La Cruz | B | 30 | C | 127 | 113 | 14 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 29 | 0 | 1 |
Jermaine Palacios | R | 26 | SS | 474 | 436 | 57 | 99 | 19 | 0 | 11 | 45 | 31 | 128 | 8 | 7 |
Steele Walker | L | 26 | RF | 410 | 378 | 44 | 88 | 17 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 26 | 78 | 6 | 3 |
Justyn-Henry Malloy | R | 23 | LF | 533 | 461 | 64 | 104 | 20 | 0 | 12 | 46 | 62 | 150 | 3 | 1 |
Eduardo Valencia | R | 23 | C | 190 | 171 | 19 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 41 | 1 | 1 |
Julio E. Rodriguez | R | 26 | C | 270 | 245 | 22 | 53 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 22 | 73 | 1 | 1 |
Jake Holton | R | 25 | 1B | 441 | 384 | 48 | 85 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 50 | 41 | 104 | 2 | 2 |
Tyler Nevin | R | 26 | 3B | 447 | 399 | 44 | 89 | 17 | 1 | 10 | 41 | 40 | 98 | 2 | 1 |
Brady Policelli | R | 28 | C | 337 | 308 | 36 | 65 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 24 | 92 | 6 | 2 |
Colt Keith | L | 21 | 3B | 244 | 223 | 32 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 63 | 2 | 1 |
Gage Workman | B | 23 | SS | 508 | 473 | 51 | 96 | 27 | 5 | 9 | 50 | 29 | 188 | 15 | 6 |
Chris Rabago | R | 30 | C | 191 | 173 | 14 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 15 | 61 | 2 | 1 |
Izaac Pacheco | L | 20 | 3B | 423 | 389 | 49 | 85 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 39 | 30 | 120 | 5 | 3 |
Luis García | B | 22 | SS | 354 | 313 | 33 | 59 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 34 | 106 | 4 | 4 |
Jacob Robson | L | 28 | CF | 351 | 309 | 39 | 67 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 39 | 123 | 14 | 6 |
Diego Rincones | R | 24 | DH | 343 | 317 | 34 | 79 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 36 | 15 | 58 | 0 | 1 |
Trei Cruz | B | 24 | SS | 440 | 387 | 47 | 76 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 49 | 134 | 7 | 3 |
Jon Rosoff | L | 28 | C | 151 | 139 | 11 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 32 | 1 | 1 |
Miguel Cabrera | R | 40 | DH | 411 | 372 | 30 | 93 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 43 | 31 | 96 | 1 | 1 |
Andrew Knapp | B | 31 | C | 250 | 226 | 23 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 19 | 74 | 0 | 1 |
Bryant Packard | L | 25 | RF | 299 | 276 | 37 | 65 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 34 | 14 | 71 | 8 | 2 |
Matt Vierling | R | 26 | CF | 455 | 414 | 46 | 99 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 38 | 31 | 94 | 11 | 4 |
Dylan Rosa | R | 27 | LF | 268 | 246 | 28 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 16 | 111 | 3 | 1 |
Jose King | L | 24 | 3B | 304 | 286 | 28 | 56 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 11 | 107 | 3 | 2 |
Eric De La Rosa | R | 26 | CF | 321 | 291 | 33 | 56 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 18 | 123 | 9 | 4 |
Roberto Campos | R | 20 | CF | 428 | 399 | 42 | 89 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 39 | 25 | 115 | 3 | 2 |
Daniel Cabrera | L | 24 | RF | 490 | 455 | 50 | 101 | 18 | 4 | 8 | 44 | 30 | 117 | 4 | 1 |
Jack López | R | 30 | RF | 334 | 312 | 37 | 64 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 14 | 112 | 9 | 2 |
Ben Malgeri | R | 23 | CF | 416 | 366 | 46 | 75 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 42 | 32 | 128 | 5 | 5 |
Player | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | ISO | BABIP | Def | WAR | wOBA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Javier Báez | 560 | .246 | .289 | .422 | 97 | .176 | .312 | 7 | 2.9 | .305 |
Riley Greene | 538 | .253 | .323 | .406 | 104 | .153 | .333 | 3 | 2.4 | .317 |
Austin Meadows | 491 | .266 | .346 | .472 | 128 | .206 | .299 | -2 | 2.3 | .350 |
Ryan Kreidler | 441 | .221 | .300 | .351 | 83 | .131 | .305 | 4 | 1.5 | .288 |
Jonathan Schoop | 547 | .251 | .293 | .400 | 93 | .149 | .294 | 0 | 1.4 | .298 |
Spencer Torkelson | 543 | .235 | .324 | .423 | 109 | .188 | .281 | 0 | 1.3 | .324 |
Nick Maton | 401 | .228 | .308 | .363 | 89 | .135 | .300 | 0 | 1.2 | .296 |
Andre Lipcius | 511 | .238 | .315 | .352 | 88 | .115 | .291 | 1 | 1.2 | .296 |
Eric Haase | 371 | .226 | .286 | .418 | 95 | .191 | .295 | -2 | 1.2 | .303 |
Jake Rogers | 250 | .198 | .281 | .374 | 83 | .176 | .276 | 5 | 1.1 | .287 |
Kerry Carpenter | 488 | .249 | .305 | .439 | 107 | .191 | .293 | 0 | 1.1 | .318 |
Zack Short | 481 | .202 | .308 | .329 | 80 | .127 | .284 | 1 | 1.0 | .285 |
Andrew Navigato | 427 | .225 | .288 | .346 | 78 | .121 | .284 | 6 | 1.0 | .279 |
Andy Ibáñez | 430 | .262 | .322 | .392 | 100 | .130 | .301 | 4 | 1.0 | .312 |
Wenceel Perez | 460 | .245 | .299 | .373 | 88 | .128 | .295 | -1 | 0.9 | .292 |
Akil Baddoo | 410 | .238 | .315 | .385 | 96 | .148 | .313 | 1 | 0.8 | .306 |
Dustin Garneau | 221 | .200 | .285 | .359 | 80 | .159 | .266 | 3 | 0.8 | .284 |
John Valente | 291 | .260 | .310 | .338 | 83 | .078 | .289 | 2 | 0.7 | .287 |
Brendon Davis | 557 | .223 | .298 | .376 | 89 | .153 | .287 | -4 | 0.7 | .294 |
Dillon Dingler | 412 | .203 | .277 | .327 | 70 | .124 | .299 | 2 | 0.6 | .268 |
Mario Feliciano | 347 | .248 | .294 | .382 | 89 | .134 | .308 | -5 | 0.6 | .293 |
Quincy Nieporte | 452 | .246 | .294 | .417 | 98 | .171 | .277 | 2 | 0.5 | .304 |
Corey Joyce | 313 | .215 | .307 | .324 | 79 | .109 | .286 | -1 | 0.5 | .284 |
Parker Meadows | 527 | .226 | .286 | .358 | 80 | .132 | .287 | 0 | 0.5 | .280 |
Michael Papierski | 367 | .213 | .309 | .301 | 74 | .088 | .274 | -1 | 0.5 | .277 |
Josh Crouch | 409 | .227 | .279 | .339 | 73 | .112 | .280 | 0 | 0.4 | .271 |
Donny Sands | 321 | .238 | .305 | .355 | 86 | .117 | .284 | -5 | 0.4 | .291 |
Michael De La Cruz | 127 | .230 | .315 | .354 | 89 | .124 | .293 | -1 | 0.3 | .297 |
Jermaine Palacios | 474 | .227 | .281 | .346 | 76 | .119 | .296 | -2 | 0.3 | .275 |
Steele Walker | 410 | .233 | .288 | .352 | 79 | .119 | .274 | 5 | 0.2 | .281 |
Justyn-Henry Malloy | 533 | .226 | .319 | .347 | 88 | .121 | .308 | -2 | 0.2 | .297 |
Eduardo Valencia | 190 | .234 | .302 | .327 | 78 | .094 | .291 | -2 | 0.1 | .281 |
Julio E. Rodriguez | 270 | .216 | .285 | .322 | 71 | .106 | .283 | -2 | 0.1 | .271 |
Jake Holton | 441 | .221 | .317 | .336 | 85 | .115 | .283 | 1 | 0.1 | .294 |
Tyler Nevin | 447 | .223 | .300 | .346 | 82 | .123 | .271 | -5 | 0.0 | .286 |
Brady Policelli | 337 | .211 | .276 | .341 | 73 | .130 | .278 | -4 | 0.0 | .272 |
Colt Keith | 244 | .229 | .291 | .354 | 81 | .126 | .297 | -2 | 0.0 | .283 |
Gage Workman | 508 | .203 | .250 | .338 | 64 | .135 | .315 | 1 | 0.0 | .256 |
Chris Rabago | 191 | .191 | .263 | .260 | 49 | .069 | .282 | 2 | 0.0 | .239 |
Izaac Pacheco | 423 | .219 | .274 | .329 | 69 | .111 | .298 | 2 | -0.1 | .264 |
Luis Garcia | 354 | .188 | .276 | .278 | 57 | .089 | .271 | 3 | -0.1 | .252 |
Jacob Robson | 351 | .217 | .308 | .327 | 80 | .110 | .343 | -6 | -0.1 | .285 |
Diego Rincones | 343 | .249 | .300 | .363 | 86 | .114 | .283 | 0 | -0.2 | .290 |
Trei Cruz | 440 | .196 | .285 | .289 | 63 | .093 | .286 | -2 | -0.2 | .259 |
Jon Rosoff | 151 | .216 | .278 | .252 | 52 | .036 | .280 | 0 | -0.2 | .242 |
Miguel Cabrera | 411 | .250 | .309 | .347 | 85 | .097 | .317 | 0 | -0.2 | .287 |
Andrew Knapp | 250 | .204 | .276 | .319 | 67 | .115 | .279 | -4 | -0.3 | .265 |
Bryant Packard | 299 | .236 | .285 | .355 | 79 | .120 | .296 | -2 | -0.3 | .280 |
Matt Vierling | 455 | .239 | .297 | .353 | 83 | .114 | .292 | -11 | -0.5 | .285 |
Dylan Rosa | 268 | .191 | .250 | .329 | 62 | .138 | .307 | -1 | -0.9 | .254 |
Jose King | 304 | .196 | .232 | .280 | 44 | .084 | .301 | 2 | -1.0 | .225 |
Eric De La Rosa | 321 | .192 | .265 | .282 | 55 | .089 | .321 | -4 | -1.0 | .247 |
Roberto Campos | 428 | .223 | .271 | .333 | 69 | .110 | .299 | -9 | -1.1 | .264 |
Daniel Cabrera | 490 | .222 | .269 | .332 | 69 | .110 | .282 | -2 | -1.3 | .262 |
Jack López | 334 | .205 | .247 | .304 | 55 | .099 | .303 | -1 | -1.3 | .242 |
Ben Malgeri | 416 | .205 | .294 | .287 | 65 | .082 | .303 | -10 | -1.3 | .265 |
Player | Hit Comp 1 | Hit Comp 2 | Hit Comp 3 |
---|---|---|---|
Javier Báez | Ian Desmond | Nelson Teilon | Cotton Tierney |
Riley Greene | Paul Jernigan | Herm Winningham | Bernie Williams |
Austin Meadows | Gene Woodling | Bobby Higginson | Brian Giles |
Ryan Kreidler | Mike Ahmed | Jimmy Sexton | Dave Edler |
Jonathan Schoop | Tracy Woodson | Billy Moran | Jim Baumer |
Spencer Torkelson | Sid Bream | Bill Moore | John Milner |
Nick Maton | John Powers | Van Kelly | Ted Schreiber |
Andre Lipcius | Ed Giovanola | Larry Wolfe | Christian Lopes |
Eric Haase | Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Bob Brenly | Tom Murphy |
Jake Rogers | Billy Bryan | Troy Afenir | Duke Sims |
Kerry Carpenter | Doug Howard | Jason Lane | Neil Chrisley |
Zack Short | George Foussianes | Don Buddin | Max Moroff |
Andrew Navigato | Frank White | Brian Turang | Chris Nelson |
Andy Ibáñez | B.J. Surhoff | Corban Joseph | Charlie Moore |
Wenceel Perez | Jean Segura | Yung-Chi Chen | Mark Johnson |
Akil Baddoo | Bobby Thompson | Barry Shetrone | Bill Mott |
Dustin Garneau | Doug Mirabelli | Ron Karkovice | Kelly Shoppach |
John Valente | Mike Caruso | Bridger Hunt | Miguel Cairo |
Brendon Davis | Greg Norton | Tim Hulett | Marshall McDougall |
Dillon Dingler | John Gibbons | Joel Skinner | Jack Fimple |
Mario Feliciano | Phil Clark | Carlos Hernandez | Andy Pasillas |
Quincy Nieporte | Rip Russell | Derek Hacopian | Eddie Robinson |
Corey Joyce | Dick Schofield | Matt Moschetti | Andrew Navigato |
Parker Meadows | Bill Virdon | Mike Lum | Ed Palat |
Michael Papierski | Tim Blackwell | A.J. Ellis | Mark Johnson |
Josh Crouch | Jim Deidel | Dan Wilson | James Lang |
Donny Sands | Neil Garcia | Dave Skaggs | Joe Nolan |
Michael De La Cruz | Joe Pignatano | Eric Christopherson | Bud Bulling |
Jermaine Palacios | Brandon Wilson | Ian Desmond | Alex Gonzalez |
Steele Walker | Ryan Fleming | Nyls Nyman | Glen Gorbous |
Justyn-Henry Malloy | Tom Kelly | Don Barbara | Dick Billings |
Eduardo Valencia | Alexis Wilson | Daniel Winslow | Randy Rouse |
Julio E. Rodriguez | Kirk Pierce | Glenn Ezell | Dave Stenhouse |
Jake Holton | Connor Joe | Sam Eberle | Dustin Yount |
Tyler Nevin | Jerry Maddox | Tommy Bianco | Dave Payton |
Brady Policelli | Tracy Cowger | Ed Sadowski | Lance Koenig |
Colt Keith | Thomas Higgins | David Hall | Gary Barakat |
Gage Workman | Robert Marcano | Antonio Perez | Jason Dellaero |
Chris Rabago | Jose Gonzalez | Len Okrie | John Nathans |
Izaac Pacheco | Mike Morse | Darnell Coles | Matt Moses |
Luis Garcia | Oliver Dominguez | David Markey | Chad Sheffer |
Jacob Robson | Chris Dickerson | Sam Haggerty | Jermaine Mitchell |
Diego Rincones | M.P. Cokinos | Justin Ringo | Dean Decillis |
Trei Cruz | Arquimedes Gamboa | Craig Ringe | Danny Adams |
Jon Rosoff | Francisco Diaz | Brent Mayne | George Enright |
Miguel Cabrera | Ray Knight | Lou Merloni | Eric Karros |
Andrew Knapp | Jeff Mathis | Danny Breeden | Mike Rose |
Bryant Packard | Perry Dunn | Drew Muren | Danny Bautista |
Matt Vierling | Matt Szczur | Mike Tauchman | Marty Perez |
Dylan Rosa | Josh Banda | Sean Hearn | Scott Krieger |
Jose King | J.D. Vidal | Preston Harriman | Jason Christian |
Eric De La Rosa | Bobby Bonds | Jay Woolf | Connor Myers |
Roberto Campos | Rudy Guillen | Luis Sumoza | Joseph Cammarata |
Daniel Cabrera | Bligh Madris | Ken Scarpace | Brandon Pico |
Jack López | Brandon Barnes 반즈 | Tito Landrum | Ryan Knox |
Ben Malgeri | Lavell Cudjo | Deron McCue | Charlie Neal |
Player | 80th BA | 80th OBP | 80th SLG | 80th OPS+ | 80th WAR | 20th BA | 20th OBP | 20th SLG | 20th OPS+ | 20th WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Javier Báez | .274 | .315 | .474 | 116 | 4.3 | .220 | .263 | .372 | 78 | 1.5 |
Riley Greene | .285 | .355 | .468 | 129 | 4.0 | .224 | .295 | .357 | 84 | 1.1 |
Austin Meadows | .292 | .370 | .536 | 151 | 3.7 | .239 | .321 | .421 | 107 | 1.1 |
Ryan Kreidler | .245 | .323 | .400 | 102 | 2.5 | .196 | .276 | .302 | 66 | 0.6 |
Jonathan Schoop | .277 | .318 | .449 | 112 | 2.7 | .226 | .268 | .357 | 74 | 0.1 |
Spencer Torkelson | .264 | .351 | .473 | 130 | 2.8 | .209 | .297 | .360 | 89 | 0.1 |
Nick Maton | .255 | .332 | .407 | 106 | 2.0 | .202 | .281 | .318 | 68 | 0.2 |
Andre Lipcius | .262 | .341 | .396 | 106 | 2.3 | .213 | .291 | .314 | 71 | 0.1 |
Eric Haase | .252 | .311 | .477 | 115 | 2.1 | .197 | .257 | .368 | 73 | 0.2 |
Jake Rogers | .228 | .313 | .442 | 109 | 1.9 | .171 | .251 | .314 | 58 | 0.4 |
Kerry Carpenter | .273 | .329 | .495 | 128 | 2.3 | .225 | .280 | .392 | 89 | -0.1 |
Zack Short | .228 | .332 | .376 | 97 | 2.0 | .173 | .280 | .290 | 61 | -0.2 |
Andrew Navigato | .254 | .317 | .393 | 97 | 2.1 | .201 | .264 | .310 | 61 | 0.2 |
Andy Ibáñez | .293 | .352 | .438 | 121 | 2.2 | .234 | .296 | .341 | 79 | 0.0 |
Wenceel Perez | .273 | .327 | .421 | 108 | 2.0 | .220 | .275 | .331 | 70 | -0.1 |
Akil Baddoo | .267 | .341 | .442 | 116 | 1.8 | .211 | .285 | .339 | 76 | -0.3 |
Dustin Garneau | .228 | .314 | .432 | 102 | 1.3 | .173 | .261 | .294 | 56 | 0.1 |
John Valente | .290 | .339 | .378 | 102 | 1.4 | .228 | .276 | .293 | 62 | -0.1 |
Brendon Davis | .248 | .317 | .425 | 108 | 1.9 | .196 | .272 | .328 | 70 | -0.5 |
Dillon Dingler | .231 | .304 | .382 | 89 | 1.5 | .174 | .250 | .277 | 49 | -0.4 |
Mario Feliciano | .276 | .318 | .429 | 107 | 1.3 | .220 | .269 | .338 | 71 | -0.2 |
Quincy Nieporte | .272 | .321 | .464 | 119 | 1.7 | .218 | .266 | .367 | 78 | -0.5 |
Corey Joyce | .241 | .334 | .383 | 100 | 1.4 | .186 | .282 | .278 | 60 | -0.2 |
Parker Meadows | .251 | .312 | .396 | 98 | 1.7 | .202 | .263 | .313 | 63 | -0.6 |
Michael Papierski | .246 | .341 | .356 | 94 | 1.4 | .181 | .278 | .259 | 55 | -0.5 |
Josh Crouch | .254 | .305 | .386 | 91 | 1.3 | .201 | .256 | .293 | 57 | -0.4 |
Donny Sands | .270 | .339 | .410 | 108 | 1.3 | .211 | .282 | .313 | 69 | -0.3 |
Michael De La Cruz | .264 | .347 | .416 | 112 | 0.6 | .204 | .287 | .307 | 69 | 0.0 |
Jermaine Palacios | .251 | .305 | .388 | 95 | 1.4 | .200 | .253 | .296 | 57 | -0.8 |
Steele Walker | .261 | .315 | .402 | 99 | 1.2 | .207 | .261 | .305 | 60 | -0.7 |
Justyn-Henry Malloy | .253 | .349 | .391 | 107 | 1.5 | .198 | .294 | .305 | 71 | -0.9 |
Eduardo Valencia | .264 | .334 | .378 | 100 | 0.7 | .201 | .271 | .283 | 58 | -0.3 |
Julio E. Rodriguez | .245 | .313 | .366 | 90 | 0.8 | .185 | .252 | .282 | 49 | -0.6 |
Jake Holton | .247 | .342 | .384 | 105 | 1.1 | .196 | .291 | .291 | 68 | -0.9 |
Tyler Nevin | .250 | .326 | .388 | 99 | 0.9 | .196 | .273 | .303 | 64 | -1.0 |
Brady Policelli | .244 | .310 | .392 | 95 | 1.0 | .183 | .248 | .291 | 54 | -0.8 |
Colt Keith | .259 | .319 | .410 | 103 | 0.7 | .201 | .260 | .304 | 61 | -0.6 |
Gage Workman | .227 | .276 | .386 | 83 | 1.2 | .178 | .226 | .289 | 45 | -1.3 |
Chris Rabago | .218 | .297 | .306 | 70 | 0.5 | .161 | .230 | .224 | 30 | -0.5 |
Izaac Pacheco | .247 | .301 | .375 | 87 | 0.9 | .196 | .247 | .285 | 52 | -1.0 |
Luis Garcia | .221 | .312 | .325 | 79 | 0.9 | .159 | .249 | .229 | 36 | -1.0 |
Jacob Robson | .246 | .337 | .374 | 99 | 0.7 | .188 | .276 | .281 | 59 | -1.1 |
Diego Rincones | .273 | .324 | .417 | 105 | 0.7 | .222 | .275 | .322 | 69 | -0.9 |
Trei Cruz | .223 | .312 | .334 | 83 | 0.9 | .163 | .256 | .244 | 42 | -1.3 |
Jon Rosoff | .254 | .316 | .296 | 75 | 0.2 | .183 | .243 | .212 | 32 | -0.6 |
Miguel Cabrera | .281 | .339 | .391 | 104 | 0.7 | .218 | .279 | .301 | 65 | -1.3 |
Andrew Knapp | .233 | .307 | .372 | 87 | 0.3 | .176 | .247 | .268 | 48 | -0.9 |
Bryant Packard | .262 | .313 | .403 | 100 | 0.4 | .215 | .263 | .317 | 65 | -0.9 |
Matt Vierling | .265 | .320 | .399 | 100 | 0.5 | .213 | .270 | .311 | 63 | -1.6 |
Dylan Rosa | .216 | .277 | .379 | 81 | -0.3 | .164 | .224 | .274 | 40 | -1.6 |
Jose King | .225 | .259 | .321 | 61 | -0.3 | .172 | .204 | .234 | 25 | -1.8 |
Eric De La Rosa | .220 | .288 | .326 | 73 | -0.3 | .163 | .236 | .240 | 37 | -1.8 |
Roberto Campos | .252 | .297 | .380 | 89 | -0.1 | .193 | .240 | .289 | 49 | -2.2 |
Daniel Cabrera | .251 | .295 | .375 | 86 | -0.2 | .195 | .245 | .285 | 50 | -2.4 |
Jack López | .232 | .274 | .350 | 75 | -0.4 | .177 | .219 | .264 | 36 | -2.1 |
Ben Malgeri | .227 | .318 | .330 | 84 | -0.3 | .177 | .270 | .249 | 49 | -2.1 |
Player | T | Age | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alex Lange | R | 27 | 5 | 5 | 3.47 | 68 | 0 | 62.3 | 48 | 24 | 5 | 30 | 80 |
Andrew Chafin | L | 33 | 3 | 2 | 3.51 | 65 | 1 | 56.3 | 50 | 22 | 6 | 18 | 59 |
Jason Foley | R | 27 | 1 | 1 | 3.84 | 59 | 0 | 61.0 | 64 | 26 | 4 | 14 | 46 |
Eduardo Rodriguez | L | 30 | 7 | 9 | 3.88 | 25 | 25 | 132.3 | 130 | 57 | 14 | 44 | 131 |
Michael Lorenzen | R | 31 | 6 | 7 | 3.94 | 26 | 16 | 98.3 | 86 | 43 | 9 | 41 | 82 |
Will Vest | R | 28 | 3 | 3 | 4.03 | 56 | 0 | 60.3 | 57 | 27 | 6 | 22 | 58 |
Nick Vincent | R | 36 | 3 | 4 | 4.06 | 39 | 1 | 44.3 | 44 | 20 | 6 | 12 | 41 |
Wilmer Flores | R | 22 | 5 | 8 | 4.11 | 27 | 26 | 107.3 | 100 | 49 | 12 | 34 | 100 |
Matthew Boyd | L | 32 | 5 | 6 | 4.14 | 19 | 16 | 91.3 | 84 | 42 | 13 | 29 | 99 |
Miguel Del Pozo | L | 30 | 3 | 3 | 4.14 | 49 | 0 | 45.7 | 42 | 21 | 5 | 19 | 49 |
Trey Wingenter | R | 29 | 2 | 2 | 4.17 | 40 | 1 | 41.0 | 32 | 19 | 5 | 16 | 53 |
Jake Higginbotham | L | 27 | 3 | 3 | 4.18 | 44 | 0 | 47.3 | 48 | 22 | 5 | 16 | 35 |
Reese Olson | R | 23 | 6 | 8 | 4.19 | 24 | 23 | 111.7 | 102 | 52 | 12 | 46 | 109 |
José Cisnero | R | 34 | 2 | 3 | 4.20 | 48 | 0 | 45.0 | 40 | 21 | 4 | 25 | 43 |
Tarik Skubal | L | 26 | 6 | 9 | 4.20 | 23 | 22 | 115.7 | 107 | 54 | 18 | 35 | 121 |
Brant Hurter | L | 24 | 5 | 7 | 4.38 | 24 | 17 | 98.7 | 97 | 48 | 14 | 23 | 83 |
Ricardo Sanchez | L | 26 | 5 | 8 | 4.38 | 24 | 24 | 115.0 | 121 | 56 | 12 | 37 | 83 |
Alex Powers | R | 31 | 1 | 1 | 4.46 | 26 | 1 | 34.3 | 31 | 17 | 4 | 16 | 35 |
Joe Navilhon | R | 29 | 3 | 4 | 4.47 | 36 | 2 | 52.3 | 53 | 26 | 7 | 19 | 46 |
Ty Madden | R | 23 | 5 | 9 | 4.47 | 25 | 25 | 112.7 | 111 | 56 | 14 | 41 | 94 |
Michael Pineda | R | 34 | 5 | 8 | 4.48 | 19 | 18 | 88.3 | 97 | 44 | 14 | 19 | 64 |
Chasen Shreve | L | 32 | 1 | 3 | 4.50 | 39 | 0 | 40.0 | 37 | 20 | 5 | 17 | 37 |
Sawyer Gipson-Long | R | 25 | 6 | 10 | 4.50 | 22 | 21 | 102.0 | 106 | 51 | 13 | 31 | 83 |
Wily Peralta | R | 34 | 2 | 4 | 4.50 | 29 | 11 | 68.0 | 67 | 34 | 9 | 32 | 55 |
Kervin Castro | R | 24 | 3 | 5 | 4.53 | 41 | 2 | 57.7 | 54 | 29 | 6 | 28 | 53 |
Spencer Turnbull | R | 30 | 4 | 6 | 4.56 | 14 | 14 | 75.0 | 73 | 38 | 8 | 30 | 65 |
Edwin Uceta | R | 25 | 3 | 5 | 4.56 | 32 | 10 | 73.0 | 65 | 37 | 9 | 35 | 79 |
Matt Manning | R | 25 | 4 | 7 | 4.58 | 21 | 21 | 96.3 | 98 | 49 | 13 | 33 | 79 |
Luis Castillo | R | 28 | 2 | 5 | 4.60 | 40 | 0 | 47.0 | 49 | 24 | 6 | 16 | 38 |
Casey Mize | R | 26 | 4 | 8 | 4.60 | 22 | 22 | 107.7 | 106 | 55 | 17 | 30 | 81 |
Beau Brieske | R | 25 | 4 | 7 | 4.61 | 19 | 19 | 93.7 | 94 | 48 | 14 | 28 | 73 |
Mason Englert | R | 23 | 5 | 8 | 4.62 | 23 | 23 | 103.3 | 103 | 53 | 13 | 36 | 84 |
Garrett Hill | R | 27 | 4 | 7 | 4.66 | 26 | 20 | 104.3 | 99 | 54 | 14 | 44 | 97 |
Daniel Norris | L | 30 | 3 | 4 | 4.66 | 38 | 9 | 75.3 | 71 | 39 | 11 | 29 | 71 |
Brendan White | R | 24 | 4 | 6 | 4.67 | 35 | 7 | 71.3 | 71 | 37 | 9 | 23 | 59 |
Sam Howard | L | 30 | 2 | 3 | 4.71 | 47 | 2 | 42.0 | 38 | 22 | 6 | 24 | 46 |
Nolan Blackwood | R | 28 | 2 | 2 | 4.76 | 40 | 1 | 51.0 | 54 | 27 | 6 | 22 | 34 |
Dario Gardea | R | 24 | 1 | 2 | 4.78 | 39 | 1 | 49.0 | 51 | 26 | 8 | 14 | 40 |
Shea Spitzbarth | R | 28 | 2 | 4 | 4.81 | 44 | 1 | 48.7 | 48 | 26 | 6 | 27 | 40 |
Tyler Alexander | L | 28 | 5 | 9 | 4.81 | 27 | 15 | 91.7 | 97 | 49 | 13 | 28 | 63 |
Ricardo Pinto 핀토 | R | 29 | 4 | 9 | 4.82 | 22 | 11 | 84.0 | 86 | 45 | 10 | 38 | 67 |
Austin Bergner | R | 26 | 3 | 6 | 4.82 | 24 | 19 | 93.3 | 93 | 50 | 13 | 43 | 80 |
Layne Henderson | R | 27 | 3 | 5 | 4.84 | 29 | 0 | 44.7 | 42 | 24 | 6 | 27 | 48 |
Carlos Pena | L | 24 | 3 | 5 | 4.85 | 22 | 14 | 81.7 | 83 | 44 | 11 | 32 | 67 |
Miguel Diaz | R | 28 | 3 | 5 | 4.85 | 49 | 2 | 59.3 | 57 | 32 | 8 | 28 | 53 |
Markus Solbach | R | 31 | 3 | 4 | 4.88 | 15 | 13 | 59.0 | 65 | 32 | 8 | 20 | 42 |
Angel De Jesus | R | 26 | 2 | 4 | 4.91 | 46 | 1 | 55.0 | 52 | 30 | 7 | 29 | 49 |
Michael Mariot | R | 34 | 3 | 5 | 4.91 | 15 | 13 | 66.0 | 73 | 36 | 9 | 26 | 41 |
Alex Faedo | R | 27 | 3 | 6 | 4.92 | 16 | 15 | 75.0 | 79 | 41 | 13 | 24 | 67 |
Yaya Chentouf | R | 26 | 3 | 5 | 4.92 | 43 | 0 | 56.7 | 59 | 31 | 8 | 22 | 44 |
Daniel Ponce de Leon | R | 31 | 5 | 10 | 4.93 | 22 | 19 | 91.3 | 87 | 50 | 11 | 52 | 81 |
Cody Sedlock | R | 28 | 3 | 5 | 4.98 | 25 | 13 | 77.7 | 79 | 43 | 10 | 37 | 65 |
Adam Wolf | L | 26 | 3 | 7 | 5.00 | 26 | 13 | 81.0 | 87 | 45 | 12 | 34 | 62 |
Bubba Derby | R | 29 | 3 | 5 | 5.01 | 23 | 6 | 59.3 | 62 | 33 | 8 | 24 | 46 |
Billy Lescher | R | 27 | 1 | 2 | 5.01 | 36 | 1 | 41.3 | 43 | 23 | 7 | 16 | 35 |
Rony García | R | 25 | 3 | 5 | 5.03 | 18 | 11 | 68.0 | 66 | 38 | 12 | 26 | 63 |
Chance Kirby | R | 27 | 3 | 7 | 5.03 | 23 | 17 | 93.0 | 100 | 52 | 15 | 30 | 65 |
Zach Logue | L | 27 | 5 | 11 | 5.04 | 26 | 22 | 119.7 | 127 | 67 | 18 | 42 | 88 |
Joey Wentz | L | 25 | 3 | 6 | 5.05 | 20 | 20 | 82.0 | 81 | 46 | 13 | 42 | 74 |
Sean Guenther | L | 27 | 2 | 3 | 5.06 | 26 | 1 | 42.7 | 46 | 24 | 7 | 13 | 36 |
Aneurys Zabala | R | 26 | 1 | 2 | 5.11 | 28 | 1 | 37.0 | 35 | 21 | 4 | 23 | 36 |
Logan Shore | R | 28 | 2 | 6 | 5.18 | 22 | 11 | 64.3 | 71 | 37 | 9 | 29 | 41 |
Bryan Garcia | R | 28 | 2 | 6 | 5.27 | 41 | 10 | 80.3 | 83 | 47 | 12 | 37 | 60 |
Nivaldo Rodriguez | R | 26 | 3 | 6 | 5.29 | 19 | 13 | 66.3 | 73 | 39 | 10 | 30 | 42 |
Chavez Fernander | R | 25 | 2 | 4 | 5.32 | 35 | 2 | 45.7 | 47 | 27 | 6 | 23 | 34 |
Brenan Hanifee | R | 25 | 3 | 8 | 5.38 | 17 | 16 | 75.3 | 84 | 45 | 12 | 29 | 51 |
Rámon Rosso | R | 27 | 2 | 5 | 5.40 | 22 | 15 | 75.0 | 77 | 45 | 12 | 38 | 64 |
Elvin Rodriguez | R | 25 | 4 | 8 | 5.47 | 24 | 21 | 105.3 | 113 | 64 | 18 | 42 | 80 |
Elvis Alvarado | R | 24 | 2 | 6 | 5.48 | 39 | 1 | 46.0 | 48 | 28 | 6 | 24 | 35 |
Andrew Magno | L | 25 | 1 | 2 | 5.85 | 42 | 0 | 40.0 | 37 | 26 | 5 | 34 | 39 |
Jared Tobey | L | 27 | 1 | 2 | 5.88 | 34 | 0 | 33.7 | 35 | 22 | 6 | 22 | 31 |
Zack Hess | R | 26 | 1 | 3 | 6.44 | 27 | 0 | 29.3 | 29 | 21 | 5 | 24 | 28 |
Player | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% | BABIP | ERA+ | FIP | ERA- | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alex Lange | 62.3 | 11.6 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 10.9% | 29.1% | .295 | 119 | 3.31 | 84 | 0.9 |
Andrew Chafin | 56.3 | 9.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 7.6% | 25.0% | .293 | 117 | 3.51 | 85 | 0.8 |
Jason Foley | 61.0 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 5.4% | 17.9% | .313 | 108 | 3.33 | 93 | 0.3 |
Eduardo Rodriguez | 132.3 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 7.8% | 23.3% | .311 | 106 | 3.61 | 94 | 2.1 |
Michael Lorenzen | 98.3 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 9.8% | 19.6% | .272 | 105 | 4.02 | 95 | 1.5 |
Will Vest | 60.3 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 8.4% | 22.1% | .300 | 102 | 3.77 | 98 | 0.2 |
Nick Vincent | 44.3 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 6.4% | 21.9% | .299 | 102 | 4.08 | 98 | 0.2 |
Wilmer Flores | 107.3 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 7.5% | 22.1% | .291 | 100 | 4.03 | 100 | 1.4 |
Matthew Boyd | 91.3 | 9.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 7.6% | 25.8% | .296 | 100 | 3.95 | 100 | 1.1 |
Miguel Del Pozo | 45.7 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 9.5% | 24.6% | .303 | 100 | 3.81 | 100 | 0.1 |
Trey Wingenter | 41.0 | 11.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 9.3% | 30.8% | .284 | 99 | 3.62 | 101 | 0.2 |
Jake Higginbotham | 47.3 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 7.9% | 17.2% | .295 | 99 | 4.13 | 101 | 0.1 |
Reese Olson | 111.7 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 9.6% | 22.7% | .292 | 98 | 3.97 | 102 | 1.4 |
José Cisnero | 45.0 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 12.6% | 21.6% | .288 | 98 | 4.26 | 102 | 0.1 |
Tarik Skubal | 115.7 | 9.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 7.2% | 25.0% | .290 | 98 | 4.10 | 102 | 1.4 |
Brant Hurter | 98.7 | 7.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 5.5% | 19.7% | .287 | 94 | 4.17 | 106 | 1.0 |
Ricardo Sanchez | 115.0 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 7.4% | 16.7% | .301 | 94 | 4.19 | 106 | 1.1 |
Alex Powers | 34.3 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 10.7% | 23.5% | .290 | 93 | 4.29 | 108 | 0.0 |
Joe Navilhon | 52.3 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 8.4% | 20.3% | .301 | 92 | 4.40 | 108 | 0.1 |
Ty Madden | 112.7 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 8.5% | 19.4% | .291 | 92 | 4.35 | 108 | 1.1 |
Michael Pineda | 88.3 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 5.0% | 17.0% | .300 | 92 | 4.48 | 109 | 0.8 |
Chasen Shreve | 40.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 9.9% | 21.5% | .286 | 92 | 4.28 | 109 | -0.1 |
Sawyer Gipson-Long | 102.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 7.1% | 18.9% | .302 | 92 | 4.21 | 109 | 0.9 |
Wily Peralta | 68.0 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 10.7% | 18.4% | .287 | 92 | 4.80 | 109 | 0.4 |
Kervin Castro | 57.7 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 11.0% | 20.8% | .293 | 91 | 4.28 | 110 | 0.1 |
Spencer Turnbull | 75.0 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 9.2% | 19.9% | .295 | 90 | 4.33 | 111 | 0.6 |
Edwin Uceta | 73.0 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 11.0% | 24.9% | .293 | 90 | 4.24 | 111 | 0.4 |
Matt Manning | 96.3 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 7.9% | 19.0% | .295 | 90 | 4.36 | 111 | 0.8 |
Luis Castillo | 47.0 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 7.9% | 18.7% | .303 | 90 | 4.41 | 111 | -0.1 |
Casey Mize | 107.7 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 6.6% | 17.8% | .276 | 90 | 4.76 | 111 | 0.8 |
Beau Brieske | 93.7 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 7.0% | 18.3% | .285 | 89 | 4.56 | 112 | 0.7 |
Mason Englert | 103.3 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 8.1% | 18.8% | .292 | 89 | 4.44 | 112 | 0.8 |
Garrett Hill | 104.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 9.7% | 21.4% | .289 | 89 | 4.53 | 113 | 0.7 |
Daniel Norris | 75.3 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 9.0% | 21.9% | .286 | 89 | 4.44 | 113 | 0.3 |
Brendan White | 71.3 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 7.6% | 19.4% | .292 | 88 | 4.49 | 113 | 0.3 |
Sam Howard | 42.0 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 12.8% | 24.6% | .294 | 88 | 4.75 | 114 | -0.1 |
Nolan Blackwood | 51.0 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 9.6% | 14.8% | .294 | 87 | 4.76 | 115 | -0.2 |
Dario Gardea | 49.0 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 6.6% | 18.9% | .295 | 86 | 4.75 | 116 | -0.1 |
Shea Spitzbarth | 48.7 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 12.4% | 18.3% | .292 | 86 | 4.96 | 117 | -0.2 |
Tyler Alexander | 91.7 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 7.1% | 16.0% | .291 | 86 | 4.64 | 117 | 0.4 |
Ricardo Pinto | 84.0 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 10.1% | 17.8% | .298 | 86 | 4.68 | 117 | 0.3 |
Austin Bergner | 93.3 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 10.3% | 19.2% | .293 | 86 | 4.76 | 117 | 0.5 |
Layne Henderson | 44.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 13.2% | 23.5% | .303 | 85 | 4.63 | 117 | -0.2 |
Carlos Pena | 81.7 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 8.9% | 18.7% | .295 | 85 | 4.66 | 118 | 0.4 |
Miguel Diaz | 59.3 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 10.6% | 20.2% | .288 | 85 | 4.64 | 118 | -0.1 |
Markus Solbach | 59.0 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 7.7% | 16.2% | .305 | 85 | 4.66 | 118 | 0.2 |
Angel De Jesus | 55.0 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 11.7% | 19.8% | .287 | 84 | 4.99 | 119 | -0.3 |
Michael Mariot | 66.0 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 8.8% | 13.9% | .296 | 84 | 5.05 | 119 | 0.2 |
Alex Faedo | 75.0 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 7.4% | 20.6% | .301 | 84 | 4.74 | 119 | 0.3 |
Yaya Chentouf | 56.7 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 8.8% | 17.6% | .295 | 84 | 4.76 | 119 | -0.3 |
Daniel Ponce de Leon | 91.3 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 12.7% | 19.8% | .290 | 84 | 4.85 | 119 | 0.3 |
Cody Sedlock | 77.7 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 10.7% | 18.7% | .299 | 83 | 4.78 | 121 | 0.2 |
Adam Wolf | 81.0 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 9.4% | 17.1% | .300 | 83 | 4.96 | 121 | 0.2 |
Bubba Derby | 59.3 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 9.2% | 17.6% | .297 | 82 | 4.87 | 121 | 0.0 |
Billy Lescher | 41.3 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 8.8% | 19.2% | .295 | 82 | 5.04 | 121 | -0.2 |
Rony García | 68.0 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 8.9% | 21.5% | .284 | 82 | 4.96 | 122 | 0.1 |
Chance Kirby | 93.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 7.4% | 16.1% | .291 | 82 | 4.98 | 122 | 0.2 |
Zach Logue | 119.7 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 8.1% | 16.9% | .294 | 82 | 4.89 | 122 | 0.3 |
Joey Wentz | 82.0 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 11.4% | 20.2% | .291 | 82 | 5.02 | 122 | 0.3 |
Sean Guenther | 42.7 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 7.0% | 19.4% | .305 | 81 | 4.65 | 123 | -0.2 |
Aneurys Zabala | 37.0 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 13.5% | 21.1% | .301 | 81 | 4.88 | 124 | -0.2 |
Logan Shore | 64.3 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 9.9% | 14.0% | .297 | 80 | 5.19 | 125 | 0.0 |
Bryan Garcia | 80.3 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 10.2% | 16.6% | .289 | 78 | 5.13 | 128 | -0.2 |
Nivaldo Rodriguez | 66.3 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 10.0% | 14.0% | .293 | 78 | 5.29 | 128 | -0.1 |
Chavez Fernander | 45.7 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 11.2% | 16.5% | .293 | 78 | 5.15 | 129 | -0.3 |
Brenan Hanifee | 75.3 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 8.6% | 15.0% | .299 | 77 | 5.30 | 130 | -0.1 |
Rámon Rosso | 75.0 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 11.2% | 18.9% | .294 | 76 | 5.41 | 131 | -0.2 |
Elvin Rodriguez | 105.3 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 9.0% | 17.1% | .294 | 75 | 5.28 | 133 | -0.2 |
Elvis Alvarado | 46.0 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 11.4% | 16.6% | .298 | 75 | 5.22 | 133 | -0.6 |
Andrew Magno | 40.0 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 1.1 | 17.4% | 20.0% | .291 | 71 | 5.68 | 142 | -0.7 |
Jared Tobey | 33.7 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 13.8% | 19.4% | .299 | 70 | 5.86 | 143 | -0.6 |
Zack Hess | 29.3 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 1.5 | 16.9% | 19.7% | .293 | 64 | 6.12 | 156 | -0.7 |
Player | Pit Comp 1 | Pit Comp 2 | Pit Comp 3 | 80th WAR | 20th WAR | 80th ERA | 20th ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alex Lange | Greg Holland | Jack Baldschun | Brian Wilson | 1.5 | 0.1 | 2.81 | 4.35 |
Andrew Chafin | Bobby Shantz | Ramon Hernandez | Tony Watson | 1.4 | 0.0 | 2.60 | 4.70 |
Jason Foley | Jeff Gray | Ryan Webb | Pedro Borbon | 0.8 | -0.1 | 3.17 | 4.59 |
Eduardo Rodriguez | Joe Nuxhall | Jerry Reuss | Jose Quintana | 3.0 | 0.9 | 3.31 | 4.65 |
Michael Lorenzen | Alexi Ogando 오간도 | Jim Bullinger | Bob Buhl | 2.2 | 0.6 | 3.43 | 4.51 |
Will Vest | Matt Roney | Larry Kendig | Gary Buckels | 0.7 | -0.3 | 3.41 | 4.89 |
Nick Vincent | Donn Pall | Bobby Tiefenauer | Orlando Pena | 0.6 | -0.3 | 3.26 | 5.14 |
Wilmer Flores | Jackson Todd | Frank Castillo | Willie Adams | 2.2 | 0.5 | 3.47 | 4.94 |
Matthew Boyd | Art Nehf | Ed Brandt | Howie Pollet | 1.8 | 0.2 | 3.55 | 5.07 |
Miguel Del Pozo | Mark Lee | Buddy Boshers | Tommy Hottovy | 0.7 | -0.5 | 3.29 | 5.29 |
Trey Wingenter | Josh Fields | Clyde Reichard | Juan Jaime | 0.8 | -0.2 | 3.22 | 5.32 |
Jake Higginbotham | John Davolio | John Bauer | Rusty Kilgo | 0.5 | -0.3 | 3.58 | 4.96 |
Reese Olson | Jake Odorizzi | Charlie Beamon | Jhoulys Chacín | 2.1 | 0.4 | 3.70 | 4.96 |
José Cisnero | Santiago Casilla | Mace Brown | Felix Rodriguez 로드리게스 | 0.6 | -0.5 | 3.39 | 5.40 |
Tarik Skubal | Dennis Bennett | Greg Swindell | Floyd Bannister | 2.2 | 0.4 | 3.66 | 4.86 |
Brant Hurter | Mat Batts | Dan Osterbrock | Todd Douma | 1.9 | 0.3 | 3.70 | 5.07 |
Ricardo Sanchez | Lawrence Staab | Matt Gage | Andrew Lorraine | 1.8 | 0.3 | 3.91 | 5.08 |
Alex Powers | Dave Wallace | Joe Cascarella | Hector Heredia | 0.4 | -0.4 | 3.67 | 5.37 |
Joe Navilhon | Matt Karchner | Brian Smith | Mike Devine | 0.5 | -0.4 | 3.85 | 5.31 |
Ty Madden | Donnie Moore | Dave Melendez | Gordie Pladson | 1.8 | 0.3 | 3.94 | 5.06 |
Michael Pineda | Don Newcombe | Larry Benton | Doyle Alexander | 1.4 | 0.2 | 3.88 | 5.17 |
Chasen Shreve | Forrest Thompson | Mike Matthews | John Grabow | 0.3 | -0.5 | 3.74 | 5.52 |
Sawyer Gipson-Long | Michel Laplante | Rick White | Erik Arnesen | 1.6 | 0.1 | 3.93 | 5.24 |
Wily Peralta | Alfredo Simon | Bill McGee | Tom Hurd | 0.9 | -0.2 | 3.94 | 5.40 |
Kervin Castro | Jose Rodriguez | Carl Shelen | Chris Bennett | 0.6 | -0.4 | 3.95 | 5.25 |
Spencer Turnbull | Larry Maxie | Kelly Downs | Danny Gutierrez | 1.1 | 0.0 | 3.89 | 5.38 |
Edwin Uceta | Yoervis Medina | Cal Santarelli | Ernesto Frieri | 1.1 | -0.4 | 3.83 | 5.52 |
Matt Manning | Jack Fisher | Doug Mlicki | Alfredo Figaro 피가로 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 4.00 | 5.22 |
Luis Castillo | Dave Gil | Kevin Crafton | Ryan Doolittle | 0.3 | -0.5 | 3.93 | 5.43 |
Casey Mize | Yonny Chirinos | Zach Plesac | Eric Rasmussen | 1.5 | 0.1 | 4.10 | 5.21 |
Beau Brieske | Cody Anderson | Tom Chamberlain | Luis Andujar | 1.4 | 0.1 | 4.07 | 5.26 |
Mason Englert | Dave Pavlas | Dave Borkowski | Matt Andriese | 1.5 | 0.0 | 4.09 | 5.30 |
Garrett Hill | Jorge De Paula | Claudio Vargas | Calvin Maduro | 1.4 | 0.0 | 4.18 | 5.28 |
Daniel Norris | Chuck Stobbs | Bill Henry | Don Carman | 0.9 | -0.3 | 3.96 | 5.47 |
Brendan White | Russ Kibler | Justin Souza | Dan Greenhalgh | 0.9 | -0.2 | 3.94 | 5.35 |
Sam Howard | Matt Smith | Charlie Manning | Neal Cotts | 0.4 | -0.7 | 3.93 | 5.92 |
Nolan Blackwood | Tony Hudson | Richie Barker | Jamie Vermilyea | 0.2 | -0.6 | 4.29 | 5.54 |
Dario Gardea | Mike Blais | Jerrod Fuell | Jose Monegro | 0.3 | -0.6 | 3.98 | 5.59 |
Shea Spitzbarth | Juan Cerros | Terry Bross | Bob Chakales | 0.2 | -0.7 | 4.19 | 5.65 |
Tyler Alexander | Mike Caldwell | Neal Heaton | Rick Honeycutt | 0.9 | -0.3 | 4.34 | 5.48 |
Ricardo Pinto | Thomas Arruda | Matt Zaleski | Kasey Olenberger | 0.9 | -0.3 | 4.28 | 5.44 |
Austin Bergner | Jeff Shaw | Tom Hatch | Jason Bahr | 1.1 | -0.3 | 4.33 | 5.46 |
Layne Henderson | David Carpenter | Andy Cavazos | Jason Shiell | 0.2 | -0.6 | 4.07 | 5.67 |
Carlos Pena | Ryan Moskau | Brett Martin | Ed Puig | 0.9 | -0.3 | 4.33 | 5.53 |
Miguel Diaz | Scott Cassidy | Edwin Moreno | Kyle Martin | 0.3 | -0.7 | 4.19 | 5.77 |
Markus Solbach | Ken Krahenbuhl | Chi-Chi Olivo | Matt Wright라이트 | 0.6 | -0.2 | 4.28 | 5.53 |
Angel De Jesus | Jeff Nelson | Eddie Gaillard | Steve Shea | 0.1 | -0.8 | 4.33 | 5.74 |
Michael Mariot | Al Fitzmorris | Jose Pina | Salvador Valdez | 0.6 | -0.3 | 4.42 | 5.68 |
Alex Faedo | Tyler Garkow | Rick Forney | David McWatters | 0.9 | -0.3 | 4.28 | 5.64 |
Yaya Chentouf | Aaron Hartsock | Brandon Harmsen | Jim McCready | 0.2 | -0.7 | 4.24 | 5.53 |
Daniel Ponce de Leon | Charlie Puleo | Steve Luebber | Eddie Medina | 1.0 | -0.4 | 4.39 | 5.65 |
Cody Sedlock | George Mecerod | Jerry Hudgins | Tim Crabbe | 0.8 | -0.5 | 4.38 | 5.65 |
Adam Wolf | Joe Horgan | Derrick Van Dusen | John Gragg | 0.6 | -0.5 | 4.51 | 5.66 |
Bubba Derby | Hector Ramirez | Brian Edmondson | Bob Wells | 0.5 | -0.4 | 4.42 | 5.65 |
Billy Lescher | John Nurthen | Paul Josephson | Bob Wells | 0.1 | -0.6 | 4.37 | 5.86 |
Rony García | Francisco Barrios | Paulo DeLeon | Chris Corn | 0.6 | -0.4 | 4.34 | 5.77 |
Chance Kirby | Mule Watson | Conor Fisk | Ken Larsen | 0.9 | -0.4 | 4.46 | 5.55 |
Zach Logue | Jason Wheeler 휠러 | David Huff 허프 | Mike Maroth | 1.0 | -0.8 | 4.51 | 5.81 |
Joey Wentz | Ted Klamm | Allen McDill | Bill Pulsipher | 0.9 | -0.4 | 4.43 | 5.75 |
Sean Guenther | Ryan Falcon | Brady Bowen | Jeff Ibarra | 0.2 | -0.6 | 4.34 | 6.04 |
Aneurys Zabala | Tim Peters | Russell Clark | Don Bright | 0.1 | -0.5 | 4.52 | 5.88 |
Logan Shore | Joel Navarro | Gary Goldsmith | Guadalupe Perez | 0.3 | -0.4 | 4.72 | 5.75 |
Bryan Garcia | Luis Munoz | Kyle Drabek | Ken Spratke | 0.4 | -0.8 | 4.67 | 6.00 |
Nivaldo Rodriguez | Trey Nielsen | Ed Klepacki | Jim Abbott | 0.4 | -0.5 | 4.79 | 5.86 |
Chavez Fernander | Jacobo Sequea | Stephen Perakslis | Dan Johnston | 0.0 | -0.7 | 4.77 | 5.92 |
Brenan Hanifee | Troy Evers | Erik Dessau | Brett Kennedy | 0.4 | -0.6 | 4.82 | 5.92 |
Rámon Rosso | Brian Ahern | Jason Secoda | Travis Anderson | 0.4 | -0.8 | 4.82 | 6.23 |
Elvin Rodriguez | JT Brubaker | Garrett Schilling | Jon Harris | 0.5 | -0.9 | 4.93 | 6.07 |
Elvis Alvarado | Ronnie Richardson | Archie Shamblin | Jason Townsend | -0.2 | -0.9 | 4.87 | 6.11 |
Andrew Magno | Alan McKay | Richard Dare | Bob Cluck | -0.4 | -1.2 | 5.11 | 6.99 |
Jared Tobey | Eric Place | Pete Cappadona | Ben Griset | -0.3 | -1.1 | 5.11 | 7.09 |
Zack Hess | Landon Stockman | Ray Perkins | Walter Strong | -0.4 | -1.0 | 5.73 | 7.72 |
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Massive ZIPS/Steamer gap on Vierling, wow. ZIPS seems to still care a lot about long-ago minor league performance than it does recent Statcast data for sure
I would say the Steamer projection is more surprising than the ZiPS one. ZiPS is projecting a poor hitter to continue being a poor hitter. Steamer is projecting a poor hitter to all of the sudden be above average.
His xWOBA was .327 as a rookie. EV and HH rate both borderline elite. Seems promising, no?
Is there any evidence that xwoba is predictive? I’m really asking, I don’t know the answer. If so, he looks like a guy to watch.
I wish we could get an article on this. I believe the answer is no, and also that it really isn’t intended to be.
Yeah I’d like to see more about this too. My understanding is the same as yours. It would help to have more clarity though because I’ve seen fans and even analysts say “so and so’s xwoba is 30 points higher than his woba, we should see improvement going forward!” well do we? or is that just wishful fan talk.
xwOBA is sort of predictive, but my understanding is that Barrel% is much better.
Overall though, hitting the ball hard gives you a lot more room for growth than not. Especially if you can do it without turning into a strikeout machine.
MLB says “xwOBA is more indicative of a player’s skill than regular wOBA.” I would love to know if that’s true, because Tango has said they’re not intended to be predictive.
It’s interesting data but I’ve never been clear on how to use it and how not to use it. I believe wOBA is more predictive of future wOBA given a sufficient sample, but that xwOBA can be more predictive in a smaller sample. I wish they had named them something else, because they get used like defense-independent pitching stats, which generally ARE more predictive.
I think xwOBA does a very good job of capturing when a player has gotten unlucky or lucky. But skill or prediction is something else. Swings can be tough to maintain sometimes. I think that’s why barrel% is predictive beyond just the actual performance… it measures consistency of hitting solidly which is slightly different than what xwOBA measures. Flares have good xwOBA percentages if I recall correctly but hitting flares consistently isn’t easy.
All this is to say I think that xwOBA is probably not the best tool for this job even if it is probably correlated with other measures that would be meaningful and help.
Right. I think it also does not incorporate any directionality data, so it probably overvalues dead pull hitters and undervalues all-fields types.
I’d read an article at who was the king of each batted ball type. Or best and worst hitters in each category