2022 ZiPS Projections: Arizona Diamondbacks

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Batters

Like most teams that lose 110 games, the 2021 Diamondbacks were lousy. But they’re not completely hopeless. Indeed, when perusing the projections from top to bottom, the overall feeling you get isn’t one of a lineup full of disasters and voids but rather an overpowering rush of underwhelmedness, which I’m not sure is an actual word. There are some 20 organizational players listed here (some are now minor league free agents) with projected WARs between 0.5 and 1.5 wins. These are players who have value and can contribute to a winning team, but who aren’t going to win divisions on their own. Ketel Marte projects to stand clearly above the rest of the lineup in 2022, giving Arizona’s offense the look of a bowl of Lucky Charms that has had all the marshmallows picked out.

It wouldn’t have prevented Arizona being dead-last in the NL West, but the organization suffered from a real lack of imagination in 2021. While things improved later in the season, the team prioritized playing veterans like Asdrúbal Cabrera, Josh Reddick, and Stephen Vogt (among others) for months past the point at which it was obvious that the team wasn’t an actual contender. In most cases, giving time to a mildly interesting 25-year-old is a better idea than trotting out a player a decade older, but the Diamondbacks were too little, too late when it came to looking at players who were excelling in Reno. Take Juniel Querecuto, currently a minor-league free agent, as an example. Neither ZiPS nor I think he’s a starter, let alone a star, but a middle infielder with a .301/.354/.489 line at Triple-A is at least worth getting a look at. Seeing Cooper Hummel, acquired in the Eduardo Escobar trade, in left for two months would have helped the franchise more than seeing if David Peralta could still man the position at 34.

One exception to this cloud of meh is Alek Thomas, who crushed it in the upper minors this year, for a combined line of .313/.394/.559. ZiPS isn’t completely sold quite yet, but the system is convinced he’ll stick in center field, which is a fairly big deal, and his rest-of-career projected WAR now tops the 20-win mark, passing Marte. ZiPS doesn’t have much to say about Corbin Carroll yet, of course.

Pitchers

The story continues here. Just like the offense, there’s one pitcher who’s clearly projected above the others in Zac Gallen, long of the projection system’s faves. Once you get past Gallen, ZiPS sees little separating the team’s second-best pitcher from their 10th-best. That’s not the worst problem in the world, but having baseball’s deepest stable of pitchers 10% worse than league average doesn’t exactly prints money. The computer isn’t holding out much hope for a Madison Bumgarner resurgence, and if he shows some kind of pulse this season, the team may be best served by cutting their losses while the getting is good. ZiPS thinks Luis Frías was somewhat unlucky for Reno, projecting him similarly to how Steamer does, but I don’t expect that he’ll start the season in the rotation.

You won’t get any more excited looking at the bullpen, a unit that put up a 5.08 combined ERA in 2021. Mitchell Stumpo, projected by ZiPS as the team’s best reliever, was a fun story in 2021. A Driveline alumnus, Stumpo was an undrafted reliever with an unimpressive college record for the Guilford Quakers, where he was arguably a better hitter than a pitcher; two years later, he can hit 97 mph. He burst through Arizona’s minor league system in 2021, pitching at four levels before finishing his season at Triple-A Reno. He has a fairly large platoon split, but his story — which Zach Buchanan ran down in full for The Athletic — combined with his projection makes him Arizona’a most interesting reliever.

Overall, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Diamondbacks win 20 more games in 2022 than they did in ’21. But based on the roster they have right now, I think they have a fairly low ceiling and will face a great deal of resistance trying to win more than 70-75 games. I’d rather be in Arizona’s position than Colorado’s, but there’s a lot of work to do here.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Ketel Marte S 28 CF 537 489 68 142 32 6 17 61 41 83 5 1
Carson Kelly R 27 C 379 329 42 79 15 1 14 49 42 80 0 0
Alek Thomas L 22 CF 503 458 60 121 23 8 11 50 38 106 10 7
Nick Ahmed R 32 SS 513 469 57 114 28 4 10 54 37 108 7 2
Daulton Varsho L 25 C 424 383 55 96 19 3 15 48 35 93 10 2
Josh Rojas L 28 2B 569 506 70 127 28 3 13 49 56 131 17 8
Buddy Kennedy R 23 3B 444 395 57 103 9 2 19 51 39 106 11 2
David Peralta L 34 LF 496 454 51 123 25 5 11 61 37 93 2 0
Jamie Ritchie R 29 C 334 293 39 74 16 1 4 26 33 63 1 1
Josh VanMeter L 27 2B 428 374 49 85 22 3 13 51 49 110 8 4
Juniel Querecuto S 29 SS 429 400 44 104 16 4 7 40 22 74 8 4
Christian Walker R 31 1B 506 456 65 113 27 2 17 60 42 128 2 1
Jake Hager R 29 SS 382 348 39 80 20 1 10 41 25 98 6 1
Kole Calhoun L 34 RF 445 395 58 92 19 1 19 56 41 105 3 1
Cooper Hummel S 27 LF 393 330 49 76 15 3 10 40 51 99 3 2
Jose Herrera S 25 C 345 304 35 66 13 1 6 28 36 83 2 1
Seth Beer L 25 1B 516 455 64 118 24 0 17 56 35 110 0 2
Dominic Canzone L 24 LF 355 326 41 83 17 2 12 42 23 79 10 3
Ildemaro Vargas S 30 2B 388 363 43 94 17 3 7 36 19 46 3 1
Pavin Smith L 26 1B 524 474 61 125 23 4 12 47 44 96 2 1
Drew Ellis R 26 3B 463 404 51 86 22 1 13 48 46 132 1 2
Geraldo Perdomo S 22 SS 431 377 47 85 13 4 5 28 43 95 10 7
Christian Lopes R 29 2B 418 365 46 85 18 1 9 37 40 100 8 4
Matt Davidson R 31 1B 400 358 45 83 18 0 19 63 31 115 0 0
Henry Ramos S 30 RF 369 339 42 90 18 1 9 41 23 70 4 3
Andy Yerzy L 23 1B 433 376 56 79 12 0 24 56 41 123 6 1
Jake McCarthy L 24 CF 412 373 46 83 17 6 9 37 33 116 25 6
Ben DeLuzio R 27 CF 363 330 36 73 14 5 3 25 23 99 17 7
Dominic Miroglio R 27 C 333 303 32 70 15 2 6 27 21 75 1 2
Bryan Holaday R 34 C 173 157 16 35 8 0 4 19 11 37 1 1
Renae Martinez R 28 C 327 297 31 60 14 0 7 27 24 96 2 1
Andrew Young R 28 2B 334 293 40 60 19 1 14 42 23 135 1 0
Juan Graterol R 33 C 220 206 19 50 7 0 1 15 7 24 0 0
Nick Dalesandro R 25 C 248 220 22 45 6 0 1 13 22 71 16 2
Josh Reddick L 35 RF 389 357 40 90 16 2 8 37 27 68 2 1
Cam Coursey L 23 2B 331 295 33 69 10 3 3 24 24 51 11 4
Jancarlos Cintron R 27 2B 399 374 39 88 15 1 6 30 18 68 8 4
Dominic Fletcher L 24 RF 446 411 46 95 17 3 10 39 21 117 2 2
Stuart Fairchild R 26 RF 396 355 42 78 16 3 8 37 31 105 8 4
Blaze Alexander R 23 SS 425 386 47 75 13 1 13 38 33 137 13 2
Nick Heath L 28 CF 335 296 32 56 9 3 4 24 30 125 23 9
Ryder Jones L 28 1B 368 338 37 79 17 2 9 38 18 92 2 1
Camden Duzenack R 27 2B 371 342 37 66 12 2 10 34 19 113 6 3
Eduardo Diaz R 24 LF 412 383 45 85 15 2 14 43 18 112 9 4
Luis Alejandro Basabe S 25 3B 390 354 38 73 13 2 6 28 33 125 7 6

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Ketel Marte .290 .348 .485 119 .194 .321 6.5 1 3.3 Tito Francona
Carson Kelly .240 .331 .419 99 .179 .277 4.9 1 1.7 Tim DeCinces
Alek Thomas .264 .327 .421 98 .157 .323 5.0 1 1.7 Rick Manning
Nick Ahmed .243 .299 .384 81 .141 .296 4.2 7 1.6 Don Zimmer
Daulton Varsho .251 .319 .433 98 .183 .295 5.2 -4 1.5 Phil Lombardi
Josh Rojas .251 .326 .395 91 .144 .315 4.7 -1 1.5 Tony Bernazard
Buddy Kennedy .261 .331 .438 103 .177 .311 5.5 -5 1.5 Chris Brown
David Peralta .271 .329 .421 98 .150 .320 5.2 3 1.3 Larry Herndon
Jamie Ritchie .253 .336 .355 85 .102 .310 4.3 1 1.1 Jim Sundberg
Josh VanMeter .227 .320 .406 92 .179 .287 4.5 -1 1.1 Kevin Randel
Juniel Querecuto .260 .300 .373 78 .113 .304 4.1 4 1.0 Jack Wilson
Christian Walker .248 .316 .428 96 .180 .309 4.9 2 1.0 Jarrod Patterson
Jake Hager .230 .282 .379 74 .149 .292 3.9 5 1.0 Greg Connors
Kole Calhoun .233 .310 .430 95 .197 .269 4.7 2 0.9 Jeromy Burnitz
Cooper Hummel .230 .344 .385 94 .155 .299 4.6 1 0.9 Derek Nicholson
Jose Herrera .217 .299 .326 67 .109 .279 3.4 7 0.9 Matt Treanor
Seth Beer .259 .340 .424 102 .165 .308 5.2 -4 0.8 Ed Kranepool
Dominic Canzone .255 .309 .429 94 .175 .302 4.9 1 0.8 Kevin Bass
Ildemaro Vargas .259 .295 .380 79 .121 .281 4.1 4 0.7 Clint Barmes
Pavin Smith .264 .326 .405 94 .141 .309 4.8 0 0.7 Tommy Gregg
Drew Ellis .213 .302 .369 78 .156 .282 3.7 2 0.6 Eric Chavez
Geraldo Perdomo .225 .315 .321 71 .095 .289 3.4 3 0.6 Ramon Vazquez
Christian Lopes .233 .316 .362 80 .129 .297 4.0 -1 0.5 Jason Maxwell
Matt Davidson .232 .302 .441 95 .209 .286 4.7 0 0.5 Earl Williams
Henry Ramos .265 .314 .404 90 .139 .312 4.6 1 0.4 Mike Brown
Andy Yerzy .210 .306 .434 94 .223 .240 4.6 -3 0.4 Brad Hawpe
Jake McCarthy .223 .292 .373 76 .150 .298 4.1 -3 0.3 Terrence Long
Ben DeLuzio .221 .285 .321 62 .100 .307 3.3 6 0.3 Adrian Myers
Dominic Miroglio .231 .290 .353 71 .122 .288 3.5 -1 0.2 Chad Moeller
Bryan Holaday .223 .279 .350 67 .127 .267 3.3 1 0.1 Joe Oliver
Renae Martinez .202 .269 .320 57 .118 .273 2.9 3 0.1 Bill Dobrolsky
Andrew Young .205 .289 .420 86 .215 .319 4.2 -7 0.1 Matt Macri
Juan Graterol .243 .279 .291 53 .049 .271 2.9 2 -0.1 Chris Ashby
Nick Dalesandro .205 .280 .245 43 .041 .297 2.9 1 -0.2 Jeff Tackett
Josh Reddick .252 .302 .375 79 .123 .292 4.1 -1 -0.2 Bill Stein
Cam Coursey .234 .291 .319 63 .085 .274 3.4 -1 -0.3 Manny Patel
Jancarlos Cintron .235 .276 .329 61 .094 .273 3.2 1 -0.3 Joey Aragon
Dominic Fletcher .231 .276 .360 68 .129 .299 3.4 3 -0.5 Pedro Valdes
Stuart Fairchild .220 .294 .349 71 .130 .289 3.5 -1 -0.5 Rashad Eldridge
Blaze Alexander .194 .264 .334 58 .140 .263 3.2 -4 -0.5 Giomar Guevara
Nick Heath .189 .267 .280 47 .091 .311 2.7 4 -0.5 Lorenzo Scott
Ryder Jones .234 .279 .376 73 .142 .295 3.7 1 -0.5 Greg Monda
Camden Duzenack .193 .246 .327 51 .135 .256 2.7 4 -0.5 Brandon Warriax
Eduardo Diaz .222 .266 .381 70 .159 .276 3.5 -1 -0.7 Tyler Minges
Luis Alejandro Basabe .206 .275 .305 55 .099 .300 2.7 -1 -1.0 Ron Marigny

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Zac Gallen R 26 9 7 4.05 25 25 135.7 121 61 20 49 149 4.14
Merrill Kelly R 33 9 9 4.75 24 24 140.3 148 74 23 42 114 4.67
Luis Frías R 24 9 8 4.56 28 24 116.3 112 59 15 50 105 4.50
Ryan Weiss R 25 6 4 4.06 32 11 84.3 81 38 9 32 79 3.97
Madison Bumgarner L 32 7 8 4.89 26 26 143.7 147 78 28 38 122 5.00
Humberto Mejia R 25 9 9 4.80 25 25 123.7 131 66 19 42 104 4.66
Josh Green R 26 7 7 4.72 25 18 114.3 131 60 14 33 68 4.61
Ryne Nelson R 24 6 6 4.76 22 22 111.7 111 59 18 39 104 4.62
Matt Tabor R 23 9 9 4.77 23 22 109.3 117 58 15 39 80 4.73
Luke Weaver R 28 6 6 4.73 21 20 97.0 97 51 17 30 97 4.48
Drey Jameson R 24 6 6 4.86 22 21 111.0 116 60 17 38 94 4.64
Jeff Bain R 26 6 6 4.75 27 17 100.3 106 53 13 39 78 4.66
Tyler Holton L 26 4 4 4.35 26 11 70.3 73 34 8 23 60 4.10
Tommy Henry L 24 5 5 4.94 24 24 114.7 113 63 18 54 111 4.85
Brandon Pfaadt R 23 7 8 5.01 22 22 124.0 129 69 24 38 112 4.98
Edwin Uceta R 24 5 5 4.56 26 14 81.0 77 41 11 36 85 4.33
Tyler Gilbert L 28 5 5 4.62 26 12 78.0 78 40 12 26 66 4.64
Humberto Castellanos R 24 5 5 4.85 26 16 94.7 100 51 16 28 74 4.89
Taylor Clarke R 29 5 6 4.87 36 13 92.3 96 50 15 33 81 4.74
Kevin McCanna R 28 4 4 4.68 23 9 65.3 66 34 9 26 60 4.51
Bryce Jarvis R 24 3 3 5.00 18 18 77.3 80 43 14 31 70 5.08
Mitchell Stumpo R 26 1 1 3.75 36 0 48.0 44 20 5 17 48 3.72
Riley Smith R 27 4 4 5.08 27 16 102.7 116 58 17 31 72 4.98
Sean Poppen R 28 5 5 4.68 36 8 75.0 77 39 10 33 71 4.50
Jon Duplantier R 27 3 3 4.93 23 16 69.3 68 38 10 38 68 4.95
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 27 3 3 4.85 15 13 55.7 57 30 9 24 50 4.94
Caleb Smith L 30 6 7 5.10 36 16 109.3 98 62 21 55 121 5.11
Matt Peacock R 28 6 7 5.01 33 12 91.7 102 51 12 38 59 4.97
J.B. Bukauskas R 25 3 3 4.91 27 10 66.0 63 36 9 40 65 4.94
Joe Mantiply L 31 2 2 3.89 49 0 41.7 39 18 5 14 43 3.76
Noé Ramirez R 32 3 3 4.25 50 2 53.0 47 25 8 19 57 4.29
Chester Pimentel R 26 2 2 4.15 41 0 56.3 52 26 6 28 57 4.19
Blake Workman R 24 6 5 4.21 32 0 57.7 56 27 8 19 55 4.22
Taylor Widener R 27 3 4 5.32 26 18 88.0 87 52 17 44 90 5.35
Justin Lewis R 26 3 3 4.94 32 6 62.0 64 34 7 34 51 4.84
Jake Faria R 28 4 4 5.20 32 11 79.7 82 46 13 38 78 4.92
Kevin Ginkel R 28 2 2 4.33 44 0 43.7 38 21 7 22 54 4.44
Mack Lemieux L 25 4 3 4.37 37 0 47.3 43 23 5 30 49 4.51
Miguel Aguilar L 30 4 3 4.47 46 0 44.3 43 22 6 19 41 4.51
Tyler Clippard R 37 2 2 4.61 42 1 41.0 38 21 8 14 41 4.96
Edgar Arredondo R 25 4 5 5.37 27 11 58.7 65 35 9 26 41 5.26
J.B. Wendelken R 29 4 4 4.61 52 0 56.7 54 29 8 25 57 4.43
Corbin Martin R 26 3 4 5.64 17 14 68.7 73 43 13 36 62 5.54
Chris Devenski R 31 2 2 4.87 41 1 44.3 45 24 9 13 43 4.89
Seth Frankoff R 33 2 2 5.60 11 6 35.3 37 22 6 21 31 5.67
Ryan Buchter L 35 1 2 4.83 39 0 31.7 30 17 5 17 34 4.79
Keegan Curtis R 26 3 3 4.94 24 0 27.3 27 15 4 14 26 4.83
Brandyn Sittinger R 28 2 2 4.87 37 0 40.7 37 22 6 24 43 4.98
Zack Burdi R 27 1 1 4.95 31 0 36.3 35 20 6 20 39 5.00
Stefan Crichton R 30 3 4 4.86 50 0 53.7 56 29 8 22 44 4.99
Brett de Geus R 24 2 3 5.03 49 0 53.7 58 30 7 26 39 5.32
Jordan Weems R 29 2 3 5.71 38 0 41.0 42 26 7 28 40 5.72
Levi Kelly R 23 1 1 6.45 16 0 22.3 22 16 4 19 23 6.14

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Zac Gallen 9.9 3.3 1.3 8.5% 25.9% .289 110 91 2.3 Ben McDonald
Merrill Kelly 7.3 2.7 1.5 6.9% 18.8% .296 94 107 1.4 Doyle Alexander
Luis Frías 8.1 3.9 1.2 9.8% 20.6% .291 97 103 1.3 Brian Williams
Ryan Weiss 8.4 3.4 1.0 8.8% 21.7% .300 110 91 1.3 Jose Capellan
Madison Bumgarner 7.6 2.4 1.8 6.2% 19.9% .285 91 110 1.2 Darrell May
Humberto Mejia 7.6 3.1 1.4 7.8% 19.2% .303 93 108 1.1 Mike Brown
Josh Green 5.4 2.6 1.1 6.5% 13.5% .305 94 106 1.1 Lary Sorensen
Ryne Nelson 8.4 3.1 1.5 8.1% 21.5% .294 93 107 1.1 Juan Acevedo
Matt Tabor 6.6 3.2 1.2 8.1% 16.6% .298 93 107 1.0 Cha Seung Baek
Luke Weaver 9.0 2.8 1.6 7.2% 23.4% .300 94 106 0.9 Matt Wise
Drey Jameson 7.6 3.1 1.4 7.9% 19.4% .300 91 109 0.9 Ross Ohlendorf
Jeff Bain 7.0 3.5 1.2 8.8% 17.6% .302 93 107 0.9 Jake Westbrook
Tyler Holton 7.7 2.9 1.0 7.5% 19.6% .308 102 98 0.9 Lenny DiNardo
Tommy Henry 8.7 4.2 1.4 10.6% 21.8% .297 90 111 0.9 Micah Bowie
Brandon Pfaadt 8.1 2.8 1.7 7.1% 20.9% .295 89 113 0.9 Keith Foulke
Edwin Uceta 9.4 4.0 1.2 10.1% 23.9% .301 98 102 0.9 Darren Dreifort
Tyler Gilbert 7.6 3.0 1.4 7.7% 19.6% .289 96 104 0.8 John Martin
Humberto Castellanos 7.0 2.7 1.5 6.8% 18.0% .293 92 109 0.7 Kris Wilson 윌슨
Taylor Clarke 7.9 3.2 1.5 8.2% 20.1% .300 91 110 0.6 Carlos Reyes
Kevin McCanna 8.3 3.6 1.2 9.1% 20.9% .303 95 105 0.6 Blake Mayo
Bryce Jarvis 8.1 3.6 1.6 9.1% 20.5% .297 89 113 0.6 Duaner Sanchez
Mitchell Stumpo 9.0 3.2 0.9 8.3% 23.5% .295 119 84 0.5 Randy St. Claire
Riley Smith 6.3 2.7 1.5 6.9% 15.9% .303 87 114 0.5 Gary Wilson
Sean Poppen 8.5 4.0 1.2 9.9% 21.3% .310 95 105 0.5 Dwight Bernard
Jon Duplantier 8.8 4.9 1.3 12.1% 21.7% .301 90 111 0.5 Todd Worrell
Shumpei Yoshikawa 8.1 3.9 1.5 9.7% 20.2% .298 92 109 0.5 Jason Isringhausen
Caleb Smith 10.0 4.5 1.7 11.5% 25.3% .278 87 115 0.5 Bob McClure
Matt Peacock 5.8 3.7 1.2 9.2% 14.3% .301 89 113 0.4 Stan Kyles
J.B. Bukauskas 8.9 5.5 1.2 13.4% 21.7% .297 91 110 0.4 Steve Curry
Joe Mantiply 9.3 3.0 1.1 8.0% 24.4% .301 114 87 0.4 Tommy Phelps
Noé Ramirez 9.7 3.2 1.4 8.4% 25.2% .283 105 96 0.4 Doug Henry
Chester Pimentel 9.1 4.5 1.0 11.3% 23.0% .299 107 93 0.4 Wayne Nix
Blake Workman 8.6 3.0 1.2 7.7% 22.3% .296 105 95 0.3 Edward Mujica
Taylor Widener 9.2 4.5 1.7 11.1% 22.8% .294 84 120 0.3 Michael Tejera
Justin Lewis 7.4 4.9 1.0 12.0% 18.0% .305 90 111 0.2 Marc Pisciotta
Jake Faria 8.8 4.3 1.5 10.6% 21.8% .307 86 117 0.2 David Holdridge
Kevin Ginkel 11.1 4.5 1.4 11.6% 28.4% .295 103 97 0.2 Steve Andrade
Mack Lemieux 9.3 5.7 1.0 14.0% 22.9% .297 102 98 0.2 Grant Jackson
Miguel Aguilar 8.3 3.9 1.2 9.8% 21.1% .294 100 100 0.1 Aaron Fultz
Tyler Clippard 9.0 3.1 1.8 8.0% 23.4% .275 96 104 0.1 Mike Jackson
Edgar Arredondo 6.3 4.0 1.4 9.8% 15.5% .301 83 121 0.1 Bubba Nelson
J.B. Wendelken 9.1 4.0 1.3 10.1% 23.1% .297 96 104 0.1 David Lee
Corbin Martin 8.1 4.7 1.7 11.5% 19.8% .302 79 127 0.0 Brian Slocum
Chris Devenski 8.7 2.6 1.8 6.8% 22.6% .293 91 110 0.0 Bruce Walton
Seth Frankoff 7.9 5.3 1.5 12.8% 18.9% .301 79 126 0.0 Alan Benes
Ryan Buchter 9.7 4.8 1.4 12.1% 24.1% .298 92 109 0.0 Kevin Tolar
Keegan Curtis 8.6 4.6 1.3 11.5% 21.3% .299 90 111 -0.1 Calvin Jones
Brandyn Sittinger 9.5 5.3 1.3 13.1% 23.5% .290 91 110 -0.1 Kevin Barry
Zack Burdi 9.7 5.0 1.5 12.2% 23.8% .299 90 111 -0.1 Eric Ludwick
Stefan Crichton 7.4 3.7 1.3 9.2% 18.3% .298 91 109 -0.1 Bryan Corey 코리
Brett de Geus 6.5 4.4 1.2 10.4% 15.7% .302 88 113 -0.2 David Potts
Jordan Weems 8.8 6.1 1.5 14.5% 20.7% .304 78 128 -0.4 Kenny Marrero
Levi Kelly 9.3 7.7 1.6 17.6% 21.3% .295 69 145 -0.4 Chris Lemp

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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averagejoe15
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averagejoe15

ZiPS seems unusually optimistic about Ryan Weiss. He’s a guy who didn’t even make FG’s top 46 prospect list for Zona but is projected for a 110 ERA+ in 80+ innings.

Curious what about his minor league stats are driving the upside?
Granted he’s had sub-4 FIPs at every level except AA where he had a bad case of homer-itis and potentially got BABIPed into bad results as AAA.
His Ks did tick up significantly last year (though BBs did to a lesser extent as well).

Is ZiPS seeing a tangible skill change plus the mostly strong FIPs in the minors? Not sure if there’s more to it than that.