2023 ZiPS Projections: Cleveland Guardians

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and today’s team is the Cleveland Guardians.

Batters

José Ramírez can make up for a lot of sins, but he can’t carry an offensive single-handedly. But luckily for the Guardians, he looks to have more help than in recent years, even with the surprising and quick decline and departure of Franmil Reyes. Andrés Giménez had a dynamite season, and the fact that he was 23 minimizes the chances that it was a fluke. He is projected to “merely” be worth around four wins instead of six, but people tend to be too quick in assuming that a breakout season represents a complete change in a player’s baseline; the past still matters for players who have breakout (or breakdown) seasons. I’d really like to see the Guardians swap Giménez and Rosario in the middle infield; I think the former is the better defensive player and is likely to be a bigger part of the team’s future than the latter. It’s not inappropriate at all to use him at the more crucial position, though I understand if Cleveland takes a “if it isn’t broken, don’t fix it” approach and avoids making a change. I do hope he serves as the backup option at short, even if it’s just to preserve flexibility with him for after 2023.

Steven Kwan also has regression toward the mean in the projection — a slightly more serious one than Giménez’s, given that he didn’t start off as high. I don’t actually think ZiPS is wrong on this on, given that it certainly didn’t hate Kwan going into 2022, projecting him at .287/.343/.426 before the season (and I wager most people would have taken the under on that line). As a left fielder without a lot of power, there’s simply only just so much WAR upside at the position. Like Adam Frazier, he is going to susceptible to a huge dropoff on a poor BABIP season, though I think he’s clearly a superior offensive player.

As you may have already seen in the Padres projections, ZiPS is a big Josh Bell skeptic. In fact, he has one of the projections that falls furthest from his recent stats of any player so far; he’s not a big loft hitter, and he hit the ball a lot less hard than he did in previous season. ZiPS just doesn’t think he has the plate discipline skillset to be Mark Grace. What ZiPS does like is the upgrade at catcher to Mike Zunino and Bo Naylor.

Even with a couple of down spots in the lineup overall, there aren’t really any gaping holes in Cleveland. The White Sox may regret going into this offseason simply expecting a bounceback season; just as most of Chicago’s offense has worse projections than before 2022, the Guardians’ are largely better. Every good season has some elements of good fortune, but it was a lot more to it than that.

Pitchers

Like the offense, there are data-based reasons to like most of rotation better going into 2023 than a year ago. I don’t think Shane Bieber is the pitcher he was two or three years ago, but he got through the season healthy, throwing 200 innings, and it’s reasonable to be a lot more confident about his contributions now. He’s lost some velocity, and I don’t know if he’s going to get much back, but he compensated well, mostly relegating his changeup from the main cast to a recurring character as he’s comfortable with his curve and cutter against lefties. There’s significant disagreement between Steamer and ZiPS on Triston McKenzie, and while neither projects him to match his 2022 numbers, ZiPS is more optimistic and thinks he might get some lost strikeouts back to boot. The rest of the rotation is unexciting, but the projections are generally solid and the computer likes a lot of the depth, from Joey Cantillo to Peyton “Love is a” Battenfield.

There’s a limit on how bad a bullpen can be when Emmanuel Clase is the guy getting the highest-leverage innings. ZiPS basically thinks he has a good shot to be the best reliever of this generation, though with any pitcher, health is always going to be that hidden X factor. And luckily for the Guardians, the bullpen isn’t bad after Clase. Sam Hentges gets an excellent projection, and ZiPS is as high on James Karinchak about as much as possible for a guy who walks as many batters as he does. ZiPS doesn’t start to feel uneasy until you get to the very end of the bullpen.

Overall, White Sox pitching probably has the higher upside, but the Guardians are better equipped to survive if things go wrong. And with pitchers, things go wrong more often than not. If I were a Sox fan, I’d be a bit worried that the team is missing its moment; Cleveland is now at least Chicago’s equal and has far better reinforcements in the minors.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
José Ramírez B 30 3B 637 558 93 152 38 4 30 108 67 82 20 5
Andrés Giménez L 24 2B 578 515 67 137 26 3 15 73 34 119 20 5
Steven Kwan L 25 LF 628 555 81 152 24 6 7 53 61 61 14 5
Amed Rosario R 27 SS 637 602 78 166 27 6 12 66 28 113 15 4
Myles Straw R 28 CF 573 514 75 129 22 2 2 39 54 93 24 3
Mike Zunino R 32 C 286 259 37 52 10 1 18 44 22 100 0 1
Bo Naylor L 23 C 477 420 55 88 18 3 14 58 50 144 9 2
Josh Bell B 30 1B 562 486 63 121 23 1 16 67 67 115 1 1
Tyler Freeman R 24 SS 437 395 57 104 18 2 4 58 22 51 6 2
Josh Naylor L 26 1B 514 465 57 120 29 0 19 73 42 80 5 1
Gabriel Arias R 23 SS 461 419 54 100 18 2 12 58 32 110 4 1
Brayan Rocchio B 22 SS 577 523 74 125 24 2 14 76 38 125 9 7
Will Brennan L 25 CF 555 505 61 130 28 3 8 67 38 80 10 4
Oscar Gonzalez R 25 RF 557 532 58 140 26 2 21 72 20 114 1 2
George Valera L 22 RF 547 478 67 116 16 3 18 69 60 160 2 3
Angel Martinez B 21 SS 451 402 46 92 20 4 8 49 37 101 6 5
Austin Hedges R 30 C 318 283 28 52 7 0 8 30 22 83 1 1
Richie Palacios L 26 LF 367 324 45 78 19 3 4 41 35 73 10 2
Anthony Alford R 28 CF 340 306 42 67 12 1 13 43 29 121 12 6
David Fry R 27 3B 476 432 50 98 25 2 12 59 33 117 1 1
Daniel Schneemann L 26 3B 388 352 37 77 12 2 5 32 29 106 9 3
Jose Fermin R 24 3B 379 334 52 79 11 1 5 44 29 55 6 4
Will Benson L 25 CF 480 410 66 86 18 4 15 58 60 150 10 3
Jake Fox L 20 2B 467 406 57 88 19 3 4 50 49 114 9 2
Micah Pries L 25 1B 454 415 45 95 19 4 12 64 28 130 10 2
Meibrys Viloria L 26 C 337 291 33 60 13 0 6 35 39 99 1 1
Milan Tolentino L 21 SS 470 418 49 83 19 0 4 43 46 159 11 2
Gavin Collins R 27 C 261 234 24 50 9 0 5 30 18 58 0 1
Jose Tena L 22 SS 563 533 63 123 23 4 11 62 23 145 5 4
Bryan Lavastida R 24 C 364 329 42 75 15 2 7 41 27 87 5 3
Raynel Delgado L 23 3B 399 358 32 75 13 2 4 40 30 97 8 6
Micael Ramirez R 24 C 238 215 20 47 9 0 1 18 20 48 1 1
Connor Kokx R 23 CF 308 269 38 57 9 2 4 38 28 75 6 5
Chris Roller R 26 CF 329 296 34 61 13 3 3 34 23 95 6 3
Bobby Bradley L 27 1B 370 330 41 63 14 0 15 49 30 146 0 1
Michael Berglund L 25 C 236 204 23 36 7 0 2 23 24 88 1 1
Jonathan Engelmann R 26 RF 244 222 25 43 10 0 5 28 17 78 3 1
Gabriel Rodriguez R 21 3B 387 359 35 77 14 1 4 35 23 106 2 2
Johnathan Rodriguez R 23 LF 411 386 38 85 17 2 12 51 21 128 2 1
Alexfri Planez R 21 RF 399 380 43 83 16 1 12 48 12 114 4 1
Joe Naranjo L 22 1B 509 451 50 93 15 2 9 52 52 156 3 1
Aaron Bracho B 22 2B 304 274 22 49 12 1 5 27 23 111 1 1
Victor Nova L 23 3B 284 254 28 45 9 1 1 20 26 92 3 2
Jhonkensy Noel R 21 RF 523 479 60 106 21 2 21 74 33 164 2 1
Julian Escobedo L 25 CF 394 357 45 73 15 2 5 40 27 101 7 5
Eric Rodriguez R 24 C 151 139 10 25 5 0 2 12 8 44 0 1
Michael Amditis R 25 C 178 159 16 30 9 0 2 13 17 52 0 1
Yordys Valdes B 21 SS 462 428 42 88 11 2 2 32 25 127 7 5
Petey Halpin L 21 CF 415 381 48 80 15 2 3 41 30 106 8 6

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
José Ramírez 637 .272 .353 .516 138 .244 .274 4 5.6 .363
Andrés Giménez 578 .266 .336 .416 108 .150 .320 13 4.4 .327
Steven Kwan 628 .274 .350 .377 103 .103 .298 13 3.1 .320
Amed Rosario 637 .276 .309 .400 96 .125 .323 -2 2.5 .307
Myles Straw 573 .251 .322 .313 78 .062 .303 8 2.0 .285
Mike Zunino 286 .201 .273 .456 98 .255 .241 6 1.9 .310
Bo Naylor 477 .210 .300 .367 85 .157 .282 2 1.9 .294
Josh Bell 562 .249 .343 .399 106 .150 .296 1 1.6 .325
Tyler Freeman 437 .263 .328 .349 89 .086 .294 0 1.6 .302
Josh Naylor 514 .258 .323 .443 111 .185 .276 -1 1.5 .328
Gabriel Arias 461 .239 .300 .377 87 .138 .296 0 1.4 .296
Brayan Rocchio 577 .239 .302 .373 87 .134 .289 -3 1.4 .296
Will Brennan 555 .257 .315 .372 91 .115 .293 -4 1.1 .301
Oscar Gonzalez 557 .263 .293 .438 100 .175 .300 0 1.1 .311
George Valera 547 .243 .333 .402 104 .159 .327 -6 0.9 .322
Angel Martinez 451 .229 .300 .358 83 .129 .287 -1 0.9 .289
Austin Hedges 318 .184 .251 .293 51 .110 .229 11 0.8 .241
Richie Palacios 367 .241 .322 .355 89 .114 .300 2 0.7 .300
Anthony Alford 340 .219 .297 .392 90 .173 .314 -4 0.5 .300
David Fry 476 .227 .291 .377 84 .150 .284 -3 0.5 .291
Daniel Schneemann 388 .219 .280 .307 64 .088 .299 7 0.5 .261
Jose Fermin 379 .237 .313 .320 77 .084 .270 0 0.5 .285
Will Benson 480 .210 .316 .383 94 .173 .290 -11 0.5 .306
Jake Fox 467 .217 .313 .308 74 .091 .292 -3 0.3 .281
Micah Pries 454 .229 .291 .381 85 .152 .304 2 0.3 .291
Meibrys Viloria 337 .206 .307 .313 74 .107 .290 -4 0.3 .279
Milan Tolentino 470 .199 .281 .273 56 .074 .310 3 0.2 .252
Gavin Collins 261 .214 .281 .316 66 .103 .263 0 0.1 .266
Jose Tena 563 .231 .265 .351 70 .120 .297 -1 0.1 .266
Bryan Lavastida 364 .228 .294 .350 79 .122 .289 -9 -0.2 .282
Raynel Delgado 399 .209 .280 .291 60 .081 .276 4 -0.2 .256
Micael Ramirez 238 .219 .287 .274 58 .056 .277 -2 -0.2 .255
Connor Kokx 308 .212 .306 .305 72 .093 .279 -4 -0.3 .278
Chris Roller 329 .206 .277 .301 61 .095 .293 -1 -0.4 .258
Bobby Bradley 370 .191 .268 .370 75 .179 .284 1 -0.5 .277
Michael Berglund 236 .176 .277 .240 46 .064 .298 -2 -0.6 .241
Jonathan Engelmann 244 .194 .262 .306 58 .113 .273 1 -0.6 .253
Gabriel Rodriguez 387 .214 .264 .292 55 .078 .293 2 -0.6 .247
Johnathan Rodriguez 411 .220 .265 .368 74 .148 .297 -2 -0.7 .274
Alexfri Planez 399 .218 .248 .361 67 .142 .280 2 -0.7 .261
Joe Naranjo 509 .206 .295 .308 69 .102 .294 2 -0.7 .271
Aaron Bracho 304 .179 .248 .285 48 .106 .278 1 -0.8 .236
Victor Nova 284 .177 .255 .232 38 .055 .273 3 -0.8 .225
Jhonkensy Noel 523 .221 .281 .405 88 .184 .289 -10 -0.8 .294
Julian Escobedo 394 .204 .270 .300 59 .095 .271 -3 -0.8 .255
Eric Rodriguez 151 .180 .233 .259 37 .079 .247 -4 -0.9 .221
Michael Amditis 178 .189 .270 .283 55 .094 .267 -8 -1.0 .250
Yordys Valdes 462 .206 .253 .255 42 .049 .288 2 -1.1 .228
Petey Halpin 415 .210 .275 .283 56 .073 .283 -7 -1.5 .251

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
José Ramírez Charlie Gehringer Marcus Semien George Brett
Andrés Giménez Paul Molitor Trea Turner Hanley Ramirez
Steven Kwan Greg Gross Albie Pearson Shannon Stewart
Amed Rosario Cesar Gutierrez Erick Aybar Tony Fernandez
Myles Straw Kim Allen Scott Pose Teolindo Acosta
Mike Zunino Bruce Bochy Pinky Hargrave Orlando McFarlane
Bo Naylor Jorge Posada Joe Ferguson Austin Wells
Josh Bell Doug Mientkiewicz Denis Menke Cal Emery
Tyler Freeman Jose Rodriguez Keith Drumright Bob Schroder
Josh Naylor Kevin Millar Todd Helton Ed Kranepool
Gabriel Arias Dilson Herrera Donnie Collins Ronnie Merrill
Brayan Rocchio Denny Hocking Jorge Polanco Damion Easley
Will Brennan Curt Flood Ted Uhlaender Harry Walker
Oscar Gonzalez Keith Lampard Danny Cater Ricky Jordan
George Valera Dwight Evans Aaron Judge Ken Henderson
Angel Martinez Bob Sadowski D’Angelo Jimenez Felipe Crespo
Austin Hedges Jed Morris A.J. Hinch Dann Bilardello
Richie Palacios Blake Gailen Ruben Amaro Colin Willis
Anthony Alford Reggie Sanders Harrison Bader Jose Vidal
David Fry Kevin Young Brandon Drury Tony Frulio
Daniel Schneemann Ed Lucas Jamie Athas Shane Turner
Jose Fermin Peter Maris Rob Belloir Rico Rossy
Will Benson Bob Skube Eric Stuckenschneider Warren Newson 뉴선
Jake Fox Gene Caiafa Joe Delfino Beamer Weems
Micah Pries John Young Aaron Cunningham Pat Sheridan
Meibrys Viloria Tom Lundstedt Brian Jeroloman Luke Carlin
Milan Tolentino John Price Stan Charnofsky Roy McMillan
Gavin Collins Matt Jones Jeff Smith Tom Wieghaus
Jose Tena Cody Asche Marco Hernandez Scooter Gennett
Bryan Lavastida Bob Stinson Steven Sogge Conrado Lezcano
Raynel Delgado Mike Mordecai James Dyer Mike McCoy
Micael Ramirez Dock Doyle Red Rambo Brad King
Connor Kokx Dom Gatti Rick Colzie Kurtis Muller
Chris Roller Drew Muren Tony Mota Kyle Johnson
Bobby Bradley Michael Johnson Kevin Collins Rene Lachemann
Michael Berglund Dallas Tarleton Bob Turzilli Dan Plante
Jonathan Engelmann J.D. Reininger Cameron Satterwhite Jim Tolleson
Gabriel Rodriguez Brian Lane Adolfo Feliz Edward Williams
Johnathan Rodriguez Mark Brouhard Mike Vail Geronimo Berroa 베로아
Alexfri Planez Josh Hamilton Alejandro Sanchez Orlando Sanchez
Joe Naranjo Bo Dodson Tim Thompson John Oster
Aaron Bracho Sonny Bowers Scott Clemo Charles Rouse
Victor Nova Myles Barnden Donald Pope Pedro Ruiz
Jhonkensy Noel Shawn Dantzler Frank Ortenzio Lamar Johnson
Julian Escobedo Mike Epping Miguel Sabino Tim Demerson
Eric Rodriguez Roger Johnson Travis Chapman Kyle Pollock
Michael Amditis Josh Glassey Nick Derba Drew Larned
Yordys Valdes Ozzie Chavez Santiago Perez Christian Lara
Petey Halpin Luis Ayala Keith Jones Elijah Bonaparte

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
José Ramírez .295 .382 .588 160 7.3 .250 .329 .465 117 3.9
Andrés Giménez .290 .362 .463 127 5.8 .240 .313 .371 90 3.1
Steven Kwan .301 .378 .419 122 4.7 .246 .324 .339 86 1.9
Amed Rosario .305 .334 .446 114 4.0 .249 .282 .355 76 0.9
Myles Straw .276 .349 .348 95 3.2 .224 .293 .280 62 0.8
Mike Zunino .229 .300 .537 124 2.9 .174 .247 .379 72 1.1
Bo Naylor .237 .327 .429 108 3.2 .183 .273 .311 66 0.6
Josh Bell .273 .368 .448 123 2.9 .223 .315 .353 86 0.2
Tyler Freeman .294 .354 .393 108 2.6 .239 .302 .311 74 0.7
Josh Naylor .285 .348 .491 131 2.9 .236 .296 .387 91 0.1
Gabriel Arias .264 .327 .429 107 2.5 .216 .278 .328 70 0.4
Brayan Rocchio .261 .325 .425 104 2.6 .215 .276 .332 70 0.0
Will Brennan .281 .341 .414 108 2.3 .230 .290 .332 74 -0.1
Oscar Gonzalez .286 .315 .491 120 2.5 .238 .269 .387 82 -0.2
George Valera .273 .360 .462 125 2.3 .216 .303 .357 86 -0.4
Angel Martinez .256 .324 .411 101 1.9 .208 .274 .324 66 -0.1
Austin Hedges .210 .275 .348 71 1.5 .161 .223 .255 35 0.0
Richie Palacios .267 .345 .395 106 1.5 .213 .293 .315 70 -0.1
Anthony Alford .247 .323 .451 112 1.4 .194 .270 .342 69 -0.3
David Fry .252 .312 .430 103 1.6 .202 .266 .335 67 -0.6
Daniel Schneemann .244 .304 .349 82 1.4 .191 .254 .271 47 -0.3
Jose Fermin .261 .338 .356 94 1.3 .211 .289 .283 61 -0.3
Will Benson .237 .341 .441 115 1.7 .183 .289 .333 74 -0.7
Jake Fox .244 .340 .348 90 1.3 .192 .289 .271 58 -0.6
Micah Pries .255 .318 .427 106 1.5 .205 .266 .328 66 -0.8
Meibrys Viloria .233 .335 .361 92 1.0 .178 .278 .266 53 -0.6
Milan Tolentino .222 .304 .311 71 1.1 .169 .254 .236 38 -1.0
Gavin Collins .239 .308 .360 84 0.8 .186 .254 .271 49 -0.5
Jose Tena .259 .293 .398 89 1.5 .208 .243 .310 54 -1.1
Bryan Lavastida .253 .319 .401 98 0.7 .203 .269 .314 63 -0.9
Raynel Delgado .238 .306 .333 78 0.7 .185 .256 .257 44 -1.0
Micael Ramirez .247 .317 .311 75 0.3 .184 .257 .232 40 -0.8
Connor Kokx .239 .335 .353 91 0.4 .184 .283 .270 56 -0.9
Chris Roller .233 .306 .339 79 0.3 .177 .252 .263 45 -1.1
Bobby Bradley .215 .294 .422 95 0.4 .164 .243 .320 56 -1.4
Michael Berglund .207 .309 .283 64 0.0 .150 .250 .203 29 -1.1
Jonathan Engelmann .226 .293 .351 79 0.0 .167 .233 .254 37 -1.3
Gabriel Rodriguez .243 .292 .328 71 0.1 .189 .239 .252 39 -1.4
Johnathan Rodriguez .245 .288 .416 93 0.3 .198 .243 .327 57 -1.5
Alexfri Planez .246 .273 .409 85 0.2 .198 .227 .314 49 -1.6
Joe Naranjo .233 .320 .359 87 0.4 .181 .270 .269 52 -1.8
Aaron Bracho .213 .278 .342 70 0.0 .149 .214 .236 26 -1.6
Victor Nova .212 .288 .278 60 0.0 .152 .227 .194 20 -1.4
Jhonkensy Noel .247 .305 .454 106 0.4 .196 .256 .359 70 -2.0
Julian Escobedo .233 .299 .345 78 0.1 .181 .248 .268 44 -1.6
Eric Rodriguez .210 .268 .300 56 -0.5 .154 .208 .216 18 -1.3
Michael Amditis .218 .302 .327 74 -0.5 .160 .241 .238 35 -1.4
Yordys Valdes .232 .280 .289 59 -0.1 .183 .232 .225 29 -1.9
Petey Halpin .232 .298 .314 72 -0.6 .187 .251 .250 43 -2.2

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Emmanuel Clase R 25 6 2 2.27 74 0 71.3 53 18 3 17 75
Shane Bieber R 28 12 7 3.22 28 28 176.0 152 63 21 38 192
Sam Hentges L 26 3 2 3.24 59 0 58.3 49 21 5 24 67
James Karinchak R 27 3 3 3.33 55 0 54.0 36 20 6 31 79
Nic Enright R 26 4 2 3.51 43 1 59.0 50 23 7 17 66
Triston McKenzie R 25 11 8 3.61 26 25 162.0 140 65 24 36 161
Trevor Stephan R 27 5 4 3.98 50 3 63.3 54 28 8 25 76
Nick Sandlin R 26 3 3 4.01 52 0 49.3 39 22 5 26 53
Kevin Kelly R 25 4 4 4.02 44 1 56.0 50 25 7 17 57
Cody Morris R 26 3 3 4.02 21 17 71.7 63 32 10 27 84
Anthony Gose L 32 3 3 4.05 35 0 33.3 26 15 5 17 43
Cal Quantrill R 28 9 8 4.08 31 27 161.0 155 73 21 47 119
Joey Cantillo L 23 5 5 4.15 22 19 82.3 67 38 10 44 93
Aaron Civale R 28 6 6 4.21 21 21 109.0 100 51 16 29 99
Ian Hamilton R 28 4 4 4.24 35 1 46.7 39 22 5 25 52
Andrew Misiaszek L 25 3 3 4.28 36 2 54.7 49 26 8 27 62
Nick Mikolajchak R 25 3 4 4.30 43 0 46.0 42 22 6 21 45
Tanner Bibee R 24 7 7 4.31 23 23 117.0 111 56 17 33 101
Tim Herrin L 26 2 3 4.31 39 1 62.7 57 30 8 28 64
Enyel De Los Santos R 27 3 4 4.33 42 5 62.3 55 30 9 23 70
Gavin Williams R 23 4 5 4.33 26 26 108.0 95 52 16 44 111
Zach Plesac R 28 7 8 4.35 24 24 132.3 128 64 20 35 102
Peyton Battenfield R 25 5 7 4.37 25 24 125.7 126 61 17 43 93
Xzavion Curry R 24 6 6 4.40 24 21 116.7 112 57 17 38 101
Cade Smith R 24 3 3 4.42 41 0 53.0 43 26 7 32 64
Daniel Espino R 22 6 6 4.42 22 22 93.7 83 46 14 48 110
Aaron Pinto R 26 3 3 4.45 36 1 54.7 51 27 8 26 56
Bryan Shaw R 35 3 4 4.50 54 1 54.0 51 27 7 25 45
Eli Morgan R 27 5 5 4.60 33 13 88.0 82 45 16 26 87
Tanner Tully L 28 6 7 4.63 24 19 114.7 125 59 15 32 73
Jaime Arias-Bautista L 24 3 5 4.67 26 13 79.0 81 41 12 28 63
Kirk McCarty L 27 5 7 4.67 25 14 94.3 97 49 14 35 69
Logan Allen L 26 4 5 4.71 28 13 78.3 77 41 10 35 63
Hunter Gaddis R 25 6 8 4.76 22 21 104.0 98 55 18 38 104
Konnor Pilkington L 25 5 6 4.80 24 20 99.3 96 53 15 49 91
Tanner Burns R 24 4 5 4.84 20 20 83.7 81 45 12 43 72
Mason Hickman R 24 5 6 4.94 24 13 74.7 71 41 11 40 71
Randy Labaut L 26 4 6 5.00 31 1 54.0 50 30 9 33 54
Adam Scott L 27 4 5 5.00 28 15 77.3 77 43 12 41 72
Kyle Marman R 26 3 3 5.06 35 0 42.7 40 24 7 25 44
Robert Broom R 26 3 5 5.13 42 1 54.3 52 31 7 30 41
Brett Daniels R 27 4 6 5.16 28 8 68.0 68 39 11 38 62
Justin Lewis R 27 2 4 5.19 31 6 59.0 59 34 10 30 52
Eli Lingos L 27 2 3 5.19 30 5 60.7 65 35 11 24 44
Ross Carver R 23 5 8 5.20 22 22 105.7 103 61 18 44 90
Kevin Coulter R 26 3 5 5.48 18 7 46.0 52 28 8 22 30
Zach Hart R 26 3 6 5.48 27 0 46.0 44 28 8 35 48
Thomas Ponticelli R 26 3 4 5.51 30 9 67.0 71 41 12 33 50
Doug Nikhazy L 23 3 6 5.73 23 23 88.0 79 56 11 83 87
Jordan Jones R 25 3 5 5.73 23 7 55.0 59 35 9 34 41
Shane McCarthy R 26 1 2 5.74 8 8 31.3 33 20 7 17 28
Luis Oviedo R 24 2 4 5.89 24 9 55.0 56 36 10 37 47
Zach Draper L 28 3 5 6.03 20 8 62.7 74 42 13 28 39
Alex Royalty R 26 3 6 6.21 16 15 66.7 72 46 13 38 49

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Emmanuel Clase 71.3 9.5 2.1 0.4 6.0% 26.5% .272 182 2.35 55 2.2
Shane Bieber 176.0 9.8 1.9 1.1 5.3% 26.9% .287 128 3.24 78 3.9
Sam Hentges 58.3 10.3 3.7 0.8 9.6% 26.9% .297 128 3.26 78 0.7
James Karinchak 54.0 13.2 5.2 1.0 13.4% 34.1% .273 124 3.45 81 0.7
Nic Enright 59.0 10.1 2.6 1.1 7.0% 27.0% .287 118 3.37 85 0.6
Triston McKenzie 162.0 8.9 2.0 1.3 5.5% 24.5% .270 115 3.83 87 2.8
Trevor Stephan 63.3 10.8 3.6 1.1 9.3% 28.4% .295 104 3.77 96 0.5
Nick Sandlin 49.3 9.7 4.7 0.9 12.3% 25.1% .270 103 4.21 97 0.2
Kevin Kelly 56.0 9.2 2.7 1.1 7.3% 24.5% .287 103 3.92 97 0.3
Cody Morris 71.7 10.5 3.4 1.3 8.8% 27.4% .294 103 3.88 97 1.0
Anthony Gose 33.3 11.6 4.6 1.4 11.8% 29.9% .276 102 4.32 98 0.1
Cal Quantrill 161.0 6.7 2.6 1.2 7.0% 17.6% .276 101 4.40 99 1.9
Joey Cantillo 82.3 10.2 4.8 1.1 12.4% 26.1% .277 100 4.22 100 1.0
Aaron Civale 109.0 8.2 2.4 1.3 6.4% 22.0% .276 98 4.18 102 1.2
Ian Hamilton 46.7 10.0 4.8 1.0 12.1% 25.1% .286 97 4.05 103 0.2
Andrew Misiaszek 54.7 10.2 4.4 1.3 11.3% 25.8% .293 97 4.32 103 0.1
Nick Mikolajchak 46.0 8.8 4.1 1.2 10.5% 22.5% .286 96 4.26 104 0.1
Tanner Bibee 117.0 7.8 2.5 1.3 6.7% 20.6% .280 96 4.26 104 1.1
Tim Herrin 62.7 9.2 4.0 1.1 10.1% 23.1% .290 96 4.25 104 0.1
Enyel De Los Santos 62.3 10.1 3.3 1.3 8.7% 26.4% .289 95 4.04 105 0.3
Gavin Williams 108.0 9.3 3.7 1.3 9.6% 24.1% .277 95 4.44 105 1.1
Zach Plesac 132.3 6.9 2.4 1.4 6.3% 18.4% .275 95 4.48 105 1.2
Peyton Battenfield 125.7 6.7 3.1 1.2 8.0% 17.2% .285 95 4.51 106 1.2
Xzavion Curry 116.7 7.8 2.9 1.3 7.6% 20.3% .283 94 4.40 106 1.1
Cade Smith 53.0 10.9 5.4 1.2 13.6% 27.2% .281 94 4.61 107 -0.1
Daniel Espino 93.7 10.6 4.6 1.3 11.6% 26.5% .295 94 4.32 107 0.8
Aaron Pinto 54.7 9.2 4.3 1.3 10.7% 23.0% .293 93 4.54 107 0.0
Bryan Shaw 54.0 7.5 4.2 1.2 10.6% 19.1% .280 92 4.67 109 -0.1
Eli Morgan 88.0 8.9 2.7 1.6 7.1% 23.7% .278 90 4.56 111 0.5
Tanner Tully 114.7 5.7 2.5 1.2 6.5% 14.7% .296 89 4.52 112 0.8
Jaime Arias-Bautista 79.0 7.2 3.2 1.4 8.2% 18.4% .291 89 4.63 113 0.4
Kirk McCarty 94.3 6.6 3.3 1.3 8.5% 16.8% .286 88 4.80 113 0.4
Logan Allen 78.3 7.2 4.0 1.1 10.1% 18.3% .288 88 4.81 114 0.3
Hunter Gaddis 104.0 9.0 3.3 1.6 8.5% 23.3% .285 87 4.73 115 0.5
Konnor Pilkington 99.3 8.2 4.4 1.4 11.1% 20.6% .288 86 4.88 116 0.4
Tanner Burns 83.7 7.7 4.6 1.3 11.5% 19.2% .285 85 4.98 117 0.3
Mason Hickman 74.7 8.6 4.8 1.3 11.9% 21.2% .288 84 4.89 119 0.1
Randy Labaut 54.0 9.0 5.5 1.5 13.4% 22.0% .283 83 5.21 121 -0.4
Adam Scott 77.3 8.4 4.8 1.4 11.7% 20.6% .295 83 5.13 121 0.1
Kyle Marman 42.7 9.3 5.3 1.5 12.7% 22.3% .289 82 4.98 122 -0.4
Robert Broom 54.3 6.8 5.0 1.2 12.3% 16.8% .276 81 5.42 124 -0.5
Brett Daniels 68.0 8.2 5.0 1.5 12.3% 20.1% .294 80 5.29 125 -0.2
Justin Lewis 59.0 7.9 4.6 1.5 11.2% 19.5% .288 80 5.42 125 -0.3
Eli Lingos 60.7 6.5 3.6 1.6 8.9% 16.4% .289 80 5.30 126 -0.3
Ross Carver 105.7 7.7 3.7 1.5 9.5% 19.4% .280 80 5.31 126 0.0
Kevin Coulter 46.0 5.9 4.3 1.6 10.5% 14.3% .297 75 5.61 132 -0.3
Zach Hart 46.0 9.4 6.8 1.6 16.1% 22.1% .293 75 5.68 132 -0.7
Thomas Ponticelli 67.0 6.7 4.4 1.6 10.7% 16.3% .288 75 5.60 133 -0.4
Doug Nikhazy 88.0 8.9 8.5 1.1 19.5% 20.4% .285 72 5.80 138 -0.6
Jordan Jones 55.0 6.7 5.6 1.5 13.2% 16.0% .294 72 5.70 138 -0.5
Shane McCarthy 31.3 8.0 4.9 2.0 11.9% 19.6% .289 72 5.99 139 -0.2
Luis Oviedo 55.0 7.7 6.1 1.6 14.1% 17.9% .288 70 6.15 142 -0.6
Zach Draper 62.7 5.6 4.0 1.9 9.8% 13.6% .298 69 6.14 146 -0.8
Alex Royalty 66.7 6.6 5.1 1.8 12.2% 15.8% .288 67 6.38 150 -0.8

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Emmanuel Clase Roberto Osuna Bruce Sutter Luis DeLeon 2.9 1.4 1.76 2.89
Shane Bieber Félix Hernández Dan Haren John Lackey 5.0 2.7 2.72 3.81
Sam Hentges Bob McClure Darold Knowles John Franco 1.2 0.1 2.56 4.16
James Karinchak Mark Littell Carl Edwards Ricky Bottalico 1.4 -0.2 2.54 4.54
Nic Enright Jonathan Holder Doug Bird Mike Adams 1.2 -0.1 2.66 4.69
Triston McKenzie Robin Roberts Bret Saberhagen Ismael Valdez 4.0 1.8 3.00 4.21
Trevor Stephan Robbie Crabtree Micheal Nakamura Tom Mastny 1.1 -0.3 3.26 5.03
Nick Sandlin Hal Reniff Mike Garman Dave Campbell 0.7 -0.6 3.31 5.24
Kevin Kelly Ryan Kurosaki Chuck Everson Don Perigny 0.8 -0.3 3.20 5.20
Cody Morris Angel Guzman Pete Redfern Shannon Jones 1.6 0.3 3.43 4.87
Anthony Gose Jesse Orosco Steve Mingori Jim Brewer 0.5 -0.4 3.13 5.61
Cal Quantrill Chien-Ming Wang Marcus Stroman Roberto Hernandez 2.8 0.9 3.61 4.64
Joey Cantillo Bob McClure Bill Bayne Lance Dickson 1.7 0.1 3.47 5.02
Aaron Civale George Blaeholder Freddie Fitzsimmons Larry Dierker 1.9 0.5 3.67 4.85
Ian Hamilton Chad Harville Tom Farias Jose Veras 0.5 -0.4 3.64 5.29
Andrew Misiaszek Dave Tomlin Ian Krol Curt Wardle 0.7 -0.5 3.55 5.13
Nick Mikolajchak Sam Demel Brian Drahman Kyle Foster 0.5 -0.3 3.67 5.02
Tanner Bibee Francisco Barrios Dave Miller Kyle Lohse 2.0 0.2 3.69 5.01
Tim Herrin Mike Curtis C.J. Riefenhauser Pedro Borbon 0.6 -0.5 3.64 5.14
Enyel De Los Santos Emilio Pagan Steve Blateric Chris Piersoll 0.9 -0.4 3.61 5.46
Gavin Williams Gary Gentry Bruce Kison Bruce Howard 1.9 0.1 3.76 5.09
Zach Plesac Nick Martinez Trevor Williams Kyle Lohse 2.0 0.4 3.89 4.83
Peyton Battenfield Jim Perry Nick Martinez Chris Volstad 볼스테드 1.9 0.3 3.94 4.92
Xzavion Curry George Uhle Mark Clark Jason Davis 2.0 0.1 3.78 5.13
Cade Smith Tommy Kahnle Eddy Rodriguez Franklyn German 0.4 -0.7 3.76 5.38
Daniel Espino Nardi Contreras Bonifacio Aponte Doug Weiss 1.6 -0.2 3.85 5.28
Aaron Pinto Chris Davis Madison Younginer Craig Molldrem 0.5 -0.5 3.64 5.09
Bryan Shaw Moe Burtschy Tom Hurd Willie Banks 0.3 -0.7 3.91 5.39
Eli Morgan Sergio Valdez Erik Swanson Amaury Telemaco 텔레마코 1.3 -0.4 3.85 5.52
Tanner Tully Dick Ellsworth Cole Irvin Mitchell Lambson 1.4 -0.1 4.17 5.31
Jaime Arias-Bautista Jimmy Terrill Eric Barry Matt Crouse 0.9 -0.3 4.14 5.44
Kirk McCarty Matt Whitehouse Eliecer Navarro Pete Kendrick 1.0 -0.4 4.18 5.32
Logan Allen Ron Locke Joe Savery Ben Kozlowski 0.8 -0.3 4.22 5.34
Hunter Gaddis Moose Haas Rob Bell Jose Acevedo 1.3 -0.5 4.13 5.59
Konnor Pilkington Mike Connolly Bill Boemler Travis Blackley 트레비스 1.1 -0.3 4.25 5.45
Tanner Burns Kyle Parker Beau Burrows Rich Webster 0.8 -0.3 4.34 5.39
Mason Hickman Pete Walker Steve Burke Dave Wainhouse 0.7 -0.6 4.41 5.72
Randy Labaut Kyle Bird Joel McKeon Williams Jerez 0.1 -0.9 4.26 5.95
Adam Scott Camilo Vazquez Don Corella Matt Whitehouse 0.8 -0.6 4.31 5.77
Kyle Marman Mike Heinen Mike Perconte David Patton 0.0 -0.8 4.31 5.82
Robert Broom Bill Wakefield A.J. Morris Paul Gnacinski -0.2 -1.0 4.66 5.88
Brett Daniels Matt Peterson Mike Bumstead Jonathan Joseph 0.3 -0.9 4.59 6.02
Justin Lewis P.J. Francescon Fernando Zarranz Mark Woodyard 0.1 -0.8 4.66 5.87
Eli Lingos Tommy Phelps Matt Tenuta Austin Hamilton 0.1 -0.8 4.61 5.91
Ross Carver Skip Lockwood Jeff Peterek Matt Esparza 0.7 -0.6 4.66 5.73
Kevin Coulter Wuilder Rodriguez Jason Dobis Daniel DeSimone 0.0 -0.7 4.86 6.12
Zach Hart Ronel Blanco Andrew Edwards Navery Moore -0.2 -1.2 4.80 6.50
Thomas Ponticelli Brandon Backe Dave Reynolds Matt Parish 0.1 -1.0 4.90 6.20
Doug Nikhazy Carl Hamilton Bill Landis Rick Young 0.2 -1.5 5.06 6.66
Jordan Jones Kevin Mannix Kevin Sheredy Trystan Magnuson 0.0 -0.9 5.10 6.49
Shane McCarthy Robert Plemmons Geo Bosworth Brad Duvall 0.0 -0.5 5.21 6.65
Luis Oviedo Jheyson Manzueta Jason Backs Ron Schamp -0.1 -1.1 5.21 6.73
Zach Draper Kris Kozlowski Matt Iannazzo Anthony Marzi -0.3 -1.3 5.45 6.77
Alex Royalty Bret Helton Tony Vocca Justin La Tempa -0.4 -1.4 5.69 6.98

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Cave Dameron
1 month ago

Thank you Dan, very cool!