2022 ZiPS Projections: Boston Red Sox by Dan Szymborski January 3, 2022 ZiPS Projections 2022 2021 ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Boston Red Sox. Batters By winning 92 games, the Red Sox comfortably exceeded most expectations for the team in 2021. How do they do it again? There’s a path available, though not all the elements are in the organization right now. The part Boston already has sorted is the offensive players who did the most to push the team to fourth in the American League in runs scored. Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, and Enrique Hernández are back, and there’s no reason to expect any kind of decline from the first two, while Hernández isn’t remotely in the steep decline phase yet. Alex Verdugo, J.D. Martinez, and the catcher tandem are projected to give roughly league-average performances, hardly surprising results. There may be some grumbling about JDM’s projection, but even if ZiPS can mostly overlook his mess of a 2020 — wouldn’t it be nice if we could all forget that year? — it can’t forget that he’s also a 34-year-old designated hitter. Yes, David Ortiz aged incredibly well (and ZiPS was weirdly optimistic he would), but most players of the type do not. Martinez shouldn’t be a problem in 2022, but the day when that will become likely is coming. The weakest parts of the lineup, at least if you agree with the projections, are apparent: center field, left field, and first base. Yes, Jackie Bradley Jr. had a terrific short 2020 (ZiPS saw that season as a drastic over-performance of his peripheral data from that campaign), but before that season, it looked like he was in steady decline, and he was abysmal for the Brewers last year. Bobby Dalbec has flashed considerable power at first base, but there’s just not much else there. And if you’re going to be competitive as a one-dimensional hitter at first, that dimension better be universe-shaking, not just merely good. If the Red Sox don’t make a short-term move here, I hope Triston Casas is called up very quickly if he’s hitting in Triple-A; ZiPS isn’t projecting him to be amazing, but his upside is much higher than Dalbec’s. I’m less worried about the hole in left, because while I can imagine the Red Sox just rolling with JBJ and Dalbec, I don’t believe that they’d actually enter the season with Jarren Duran and Christin Stewart getting the at-bats in left. Honestly, I think they’d put Hernández out there and start Christian Arroyo at second before doing that. This is one place I expect them to be active when the offseason resumes, and I’ll be very disappointed if they are not. There’s not much excitement in the high minors here, and the bench is a little light, though that’s another place I expect the Red Sox to make some low-key additions. Pitchers One of the keys to the Red Sox exceeding expectations in 2021 was the rotation’s health. With only Nick Pivetta spared some kind of significant injury history, the ability of the team to use their desired starting pitchers was easily the most significant source of variation in Boston’s preseason projections. In the simulations where they got lucky with the health of pitchers like Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Richards, and Chris Sale, the Red Sox frequently won around 90 games. When they didn’t, the organization’s lack of impact high-level arms caused the wheels to come off very quickly. In 2021, the team got the health they needed. Only seven pitchers received multiple starts for Boston, and while not all of them were great, the rotation was stable. And it was enough. But it’s a hard thing to count on for a second straight season; my cats don’t push a glass balanced on the edge of the counter to the kitchen floor every time, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to entrust them with the care of those glasses. James Paxton was a fun pickup, but he’s yet another pitcher with an injury history. The projections are more stable this year because ZiPS is simply more sold on some of the backup plans, but it still would be nice if the Red Sox had another durable pitcher on the roster. Another element of Boston’s 2021 success was a very solid bullpen, and that’s one thing ZiPS sees persisting into the coming season. A lot of the pitchers on the team improved their long-term projected outlook (Garrett Whitlock, Darwinzon Hernandez, Josh Taylor), and while no one gets the kind of dominating projection to put them in elite territory, there’s a lot of very good performance expected from bow to almost stern. Perhaps an additional arm at the back of the rotation would help, but with the Red Sox accumulating a lot of maybe-healthy starting pitchers, they may have one or two of those names to fatten the relief corps in a swing role. I’m calling the Red Sox for mid-80s wins as of right now, but I think they’ll likely add two or three wins in left, and either something more creative in center or another workhorse starter before it’s all said and done. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Batters – Standard Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS Rafael Devers L 25 3B 672 607 107 172 41 2 37 116 57 141 6 5 Xander Bogaerts R 29 SS 622 550 88 158 38 1 26 89 62 113 7 1 Enrique Hernández R 30 2B 540 477 75 126 28 3 22 67 50 105 2 0 Kyle Schwarber L 29 LF 497 424 72 109 23 2 30 81 66 130 2 2 Alex Verdugo L 26 LF 568 514 76 150 33 2 13 57 46 89 7 2 J.D. Martinez R 34 LF 591 527 78 143 32 2 25 86 55 136 1 0 José Iglesias R 32 SS 510 482 58 138 32 3 7 54 19 67 6 3 Christian Vazquez R 31 C 486 448 52 116 22 1 11 50 31 87 6 4 Yairo Muñoz R 27 3B 385 359 43 102 20 2 8 36 19 68 12 4 David Hamilton L 24 SS 481 445 48 102 21 4 8 35 32 108 33 5 Bobby Dalbec R 27 1B 489 438 56 100 20 3 25 71 39 172 3 1 Triston Casas L 22 1B 433 385 58 97 19 2 16 51 39 101 5 2 Christian Arroyo R 27 2B 222 203 26 51 12 1 7 28 12 52 2 0 Jarren Duran L 25 CF 481 443 55 113 19 5 11 41 30 122 22 6 Jonathan Araúz B 23 2B 401 359 51 84 17 1 10 42 33 81 2 1 Travis Shaw L 32 3B 363 316 36 70 16 0 13 48 40 94 1 1 Christin Stewart L 28 RF 439 393 48 96 22 3 20 68 37 116 1 1 Christian Koss R 24 SS 457 422 49 102 19 3 10 40 25 100 7 3 Rob Refsnyder R 31 CF 274 245 33 62 14 1 6 28 25 69 1 1 Kevin Plawecki R 31 C 183 164 17 42 10 1 3 19 14 31 0 0 Jackie Bradley Jr. L 32 CF 458 410 53 90 24 3 10 44 35 128 8 2 Danny Santana B 31 1B 391 360 52 89 19 4 16 50 23 110 13 5 Connor Wong R 26 C 351 328 38 74 16 3 12 41 19 122 7 2 Chad De La Guerra L 29 3B 231 212 24 48 11 1 7 21 17 68 4 1 Taylor Motter R 32 3B 326 289 37 63 14 2 11 35 32 81 2 2 Ronaldo Hernández R 24 C 423 397 44 95 21 2 12 47 15 87 2 1 Joey Meneses R 30 RF 416 382 49 97 20 1 12 49 26 92 0 0 Ryan Fitzgerald L 28 SS 438 402 45 93 20 3 9 41 28 107 4 5 Franchy Cordero L 27 LF 428 389 57 92 23 3 12 50 35 137 9 2 Jack López R 29 2B 338 310 41 75 14 1 7 32 17 80 10 2 Nick Sogard B 24 2B 352 317 37 76 12 1 7 29 25 72 8 4 Jeter Downs R 23 SS 454 409 51 87 18 2 14 45 32 130 17 4 Grant Williams L 26 2B 368 343 33 85 15 2 3 24 18 48 7 6 Ricardo Cubillan B 24 2B 101 89 10 19 3 1 1 5 10 24 1 1 Michael Gettys R 26 CF 412 379 46 76 20 3 14 50 24 149 10 4 Chris Herrmann L 34 C 166 147 17 31 6 1 4 16 16 51 0 0 Cameron Cannon R 24 2B 427 402 49 99 24 1 8 39 18 70 5 3 Josh Ockimey L 26 1B 402 343 51 71 15 1 15 44 51 136 0 1 Jett Bandy R 32 C 198 180 21 38 7 0 6 19 10 54 0 1 Jeremy Rivera B 27 SS 329 305 31 71 11 1 5 21 18 74 6 2 Devlin Granberg R 26 RF 443 407 52 100 21 2 10 44 24 96 4 2 Hudson Potts R 23 3B 381 350 39 77 16 1 10 37 19 118 0 0 Kole Cottam R 25 C 302 271 30 57 14 1 7 26 22 98 0 1 Johan Mieses R 26 RF 387 350 42 74 13 1 14 43 27 105 3 1 Pedro Castellanos R 24 LF 439 403 49 100 19 1 10 42 23 86 4 5 Tyreque Reed R 25 1B 403 362 47 79 19 0 12 42 31 125 2 2 Tanner Nishioka R 27 2B 234 213 23 47 11 0 4 20 11 72 2 1 Tate Matheny R 28 RF 316 293 32 61 13 1 7 28 19 109 7 3 Wil Dalton R 24 RF 369 340 39 62 13 1 9 33 24 110 2 2 Jeisson Rosario L 22 CF 452 404 59 88 16 2 6 34 41 122 9 5 Batters – Advanced Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp Rafael Devers .283 .348 .540 131 .257 .315 7.0 -7 3.7 Eric Chavez Xander Bogaerts .287 .360 .502 125 .215 .321 6.9 -6 3.6 Ken McMullen Enrique Hernández .264 .339 .474 113 .210 .297 5.9 4 2.8 Mark Ellis Kyle Schwarber .257 .360 .533 133 .276 .299 6.9 -1 2.5 Mike Epstein Alex Verdugo .292 .350 .440 108 .148 .333 5.9 4 1.9 Ryan Sweeney J.D. Martinez .271 .342 .482 115 .211 .322 6.1 -2 1.7 Jim Rice José Iglesias .286 .320 .409 92 .122 .321 5.0 0 1.3 Freddy Sanchez Christian Vazquez .259 .308 .386 83 .127 .300 4.3 5 1.3 Cody Mckay Yairo Muñoz .284 .324 .418 95 .134 .332 5.2 1 1.0 Omar Infante David Hamilton .229 .283 .348 67 .119 .286 4.0 7 0.9 Zach Sorensen Bobby Dalbec .228 .303 .459 98 .231 .311 4.9 2 0.7 Kevin Witt Triston Casas .252 .325 .436 100 .184 .302 5.1 1 0.7 Chris Pritchett Christian Arroyo .251 .309 .424 92 .172 .306 4.8 2 0.7 Bret Boone Jarren Duran .255 .308 .395 85 .140 .329 4.7 -2 0.6 Bubba Crosby Jonathan Araúz .234 .298 .370 76 .136 .276 3.9 5 0.6 Jason Bates Travis Shaw .222 .315 .396 87 .174 .273 4.3 0 0.6 Wayne Gross Christin Stewart .244 .317 .468 104 .224 .296 5.3 -4 0.5 John-Ford Griffin Christian Koss .242 .289 .372 74 .130 .295 3.8 3 0.5 Ron Gardenhire Rob Refsnyder .253 .325 .392 89 .139 .329 4.6 0 0.4 Shane Spencer Kevin Plawecki .256 .330 .384 89 .128 .300 4.6 -2 0.4 Jerry Grote Jackie Bradley Jr. .220 .293 .366 74 .146 .294 3.8 3 0.3 Eric Fox Danny Santana .247 .297 .456 96 .208 .312 4.9 -1 0.2 Chris Jones Connor Wong .226 .274 .402 76 .177 .320 3.9 -2 0.2 Lee Evans Chad De La Guerra .226 .290 .387 78 .160 .299 4.0 1 0.2 Seth Bynum Taylor Motter .218 .298 .394 82 .176 .264 4.0 0 0.2 Tom Brookens Ronaldo Hernández .239 .275 .393 74 .154 .279 3.8 -2 0.1 Scott Ackerman Joey Meneses .254 .303 .406 86 .152 .306 4.4 2 0.1 Tim Costo Ryan Fitzgerald .231 .286 .363 71 .132 .294 3.5 1 0.0 Tripp Cromer Franchy Cordero .237 .304 .404 86 .167 .333 4.5 -2 0.0 Marvin Garrison Jack López .242 .287 .361 71 .119 .305 3.9 0 -0.1 Steve Sisco Nick Sogard .240 .298 .350 72 .110 .290 3.7 1 -0.1 Erik Laseke Jeter Downs .213 .273 .369 68 .156 .275 3.7 -2 -0.1 Jayson Nix Grant Williams .248 .290 .329 64 .082 .281 3.3 4 -0.2 Luis Ordaz Ricardo Cubillan .213 .297 .303 61 .090 .281 3.0 0 -0.2 Manuel Ferrer Michael Gettys .201 .254 .380 65 .179 .287 3.3 4 -0.2 Barry Wesson Chris Herrmann .211 .291 .347 69 .136 .293 3.5 -2 -0.2 Jerry Goff Cameron Cannon .246 .289 .371 73 .124 .281 3.8 -2 -0.2 Brent Butler Josh Ockimey .207 .313 .388 85 .181 .292 4.1 -1 -0.2 Steve Carver Jett Bandy .211 .274 .350 64 .139 .267 3.2 -2 -0.3 Chad Moeller Jeremy Rivera .233 .279 .325 60 .092 .292 3.3 0 -0.3 Milko Jaramillo Devlin Granberg .246 .301 .381 80 .135 .299 4.1 -1 -0.4 Dionys Cesar Hudson Potts .220 .265 .357 63 .137 .302 3.3 2 -0.4 Matthew Moses Kole Cottam .210 .280 .347 65 .137 .301 3.2 -4 -0.5 Yohanny Valera Johan Mieses .211 .278 .374 71 .163 .260 3.6 1 -0.5 Garrick Haltiwanger Pedro Castellanos .248 .297 .375 77 .127 .293 3.8 -2 -0.7 Sergio Cairo Tyreque Reed .218 .287 .370 73 .152 .298 3.6 0 -0.8 Dustin Brisson Tanner Nishioka .221 .275 .329 59 .108 .314 3.1 -6 -1.0 Chad Spann Tate Matheny .208 .260 .331 56 .123 .305 3.0 0 -1.1 Jamar Hill Wil Dalton .182 .242 .306 44 .124 .240 2.4 3 -1.6 B.J. Garbe Jeisson Rosario .218 .293 .312 61 .094 .297 3.1 -12 -1.8 Jason Denham Pitchers – Standard Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP Nathan Eovaldi R 32 11 6 3.73 29 27 154.3 149 64 18 37 166 3.38 Chris Sale L 33 7 4 3.53 18 18 91.7 80 36 11 25 116 3.29 Nick Pivetta R 29 9 8 4.89 32 27 143.7 137 78 23 58 148 4.52 James Paxton L 33 6 5 4.47 17 17 86.7 86 43 13 30 95 4.01 Garrett Whitlock R 26 7 4 3.87 37 5 76.7 72 33 8 25 77 3.66 Tanner Houck R 26 6 5 4.62 27 20 97.3 92 50 14 38 105 4.25 Rich Hill L 42 6 6 4.93 25 24 118.7 119 65 20 40 103 4.90 Garrett Richards R 34 6 5 4.84 31 18 109.7 116 59 17 41 94 4.68 Bryan Mata R 23 8 7 4.88 22 22 101.3 103 55 13 50 86 4.81 Josh Winckowski R 24 7 7 5.06 24 23 112.0 124 63 15 40 77 4.78 Victor Santos R 21 6 5 4.70 24 13 84.3 91 44 12 24 62 4.56 Kutter Crawford R 26 7 7 4.98 22 22 97.7 101 54 14 43 97 4.53 Adam Ottavino R 36 6 3 3.65 63 0 56.7 46 23 5 33 70 3.82 Matt Barnes R 32 7 4 3.79 60 1 54.7 42 23 7 28 78 3.64 Michael Wacha R 30 5 4 5.21 27 22 112.3 127 65 20 34 100 4.70 Raynel Espinal R 30 7 7 5.20 23 18 98.7 104 57 16 37 84 4.83 Martín Pérez L 31 8 7 5.28 32 22 116.0 132 68 18 46 89 4.98 Zack Kelly R 27 4 3 4.28 32 4 54.7 52 26 6 24 54 4.11 John Schreiber R 28 4 3 4.54 43 6 67.3 70 34 9 25 62 4.32 Brayan Bello R 23 5 5 5.43 21 21 111.0 123 67 19 43 79 5.28 Jay Groome L 23 6 6 5.30 20 20 88.3 94 52 14 38 74 5.03 Connor Seabold R 26 4 4 5.15 16 16 71.7 76 41 11 25 60 4.71 Josh Taylor L 29 2 1 3.93 61 0 52.7 46 23 6 22 64 3.65 Darwinzon Hernandez L 25 3 2 3.97 54 0 45.3 34 20 5 29 65 3.93 Chris Murphy L 24 6 6 5.44 21 20 91.0 99 55 17 37 77 5.33 Hirokazu Sawamura R 34 3 2 4.06 51 0 51.0 44 23 6 28 60 4.18 Andrew Politi R 26 7 7 5.28 24 13 75.0 78 44 10 42 66 4.99 Ryan Brasier R 34 3 2 3.96 42 0 38.7 37 17 5 13 37 4.03 Zac Grotz R 29 3 3 4.83 23 5 50.3 53 27 7 17 41 4.61 Hansel Robles R 31 4 3 4.50 67 0 64.0 60 32 10 27 68 4.45 Alex Claudio L 30 2 1 4.50 57 1 50.0 54 25 5 18 37 4.26 Eduard Bazardo R 26 3 3 4.86 24 3 46.3 48 25 8 17 42 4.91 Frank German R 24 6 6 5.62 24 18 83.3 96 52 14 35 54 5.51 Austin Davis L 29 2 2 4.56 47 0 51.3 48 26 6 25 54 4.23 Rio Gomez L 27 2 1 4.59 32 0 49.0 50 25 6 20 43 4.42 Seth Blair R 33 3 2 4.71 27 1 36.3 36 19 5 17 34 4.67 Daniel Gossett R 29 5 6 5.75 18 16 81.3 94 52 14 37 58 5.50 Brandon Workman R 33 3 3 4.63 46 0 44.7 40 23 7 27 49 4.90 Brian Keller R 28 3 4 5.64 23 13 67.0 73 42 11 35 57 5.36 Michael Feliz R 29 3 2 4.78 49 1 49.0 48 26 7 20 51 4.30 Dominic LoBrutto L 26 2 2 4.70 34 0 44.0 48 23 5 16 33 4.45 Brad Peacock R 34 3 4 5.63 22 11 54.3 57 34 11 22 51 5.31 Austin Brice R 30 2 2 5.01 41 2 46.7 46 26 7 21 44 4.98 Kyle Hart L 29 7 9 5.89 23 20 107.0 125 70 20 46 78 5.58 Jose Adames R 29 1 1 4.78 32 0 32.0 31 17 5 15 31 4.87 Matt Hall L 28 4 4 5.50 34 6 73.7 81 45 11 37 66 5.00 Caleb Simpson R 30 2 2 4.91 21 0 22.0 20 12 3 14 24 4.82 Brandon Brennan R 30 3 3 5.01 38 0 46.7 48 26 6 21 38 4.70 Geoff Hartlieb R 28 3 3 5.11 40 0 49.3 50 28 5 29 48 4.50 Durbin Feltman R 25 4 4 5.14 42 0 49.0 49 28 7 25 46 4.87 Kaleb Ort R 30 2 2 5.16 40 0 45.3 43 26 6 28 50 4.75 Joan Martinez R 25 2 2 5.22 34 0 39.7 38 23 5 27 40 5.00 Phillips Valdez R 30 3 3 5.65 41 6 71.7 78 45 12 37 61 5.45 Bobby Poyner L 29 2 2 5.48 34 1 42.7 46 26 9 16 39 5.43 Colten Brewer R 29 2 3 5.74 33 1 42.3 45 27 8 23 38 5.61 Pitchers – Advanced Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp Nathan Eovaldi 9.7 2.2 1.0 5.7% 25.7% .313 126 80 3.2 Shane Reynolds Chris Sale 11.4 2.5 1.1 6.5% 30.3% .309 133 75 2.1 Dutch Leonard Nick Pivetta 9.3 3.6 1.4 9.3% 23.8% .295 96 104 1.4 Kevin Foster James Paxton 9.9 3.1 1.4 8.1% 25.6% .315 105 95 1.4 Andy Pettitte Garrett Whitlock 9.0 2.9 0.9 7.7% 23.6% .302 121 83 1.3 Brad Clontz Tanner Houck 9.7 3.5 1.3 9.0% 24.9% .301 101 99 1.2 Joe Cowley Rich Hill 7.8 3.0 1.5 7.8% 20.0% .289 95 105 1.2 Tim Wakefield Garrett Richards 7.7 3.4 1.4 8.5% 19.5% .304 97 103 1.1 Mike Boddicker Bryan Mata 7.6 4.4 1.2 11.0% 18.9% .299 96 104 1.1 Mike Payne Josh Winckowski 6.2 3.2 1.2 8.0% 15.5% .304 93 108 1.0 Cha Seung Baek Victor Santos 6.6 2.6 1.3 6.6% 16.9% .299 100 100 1.0 John Hope Kutter Crawford 8.9 4.0 1.3 9.9% 22.3% .315 94 106 0.9 Angel Guzman Adam Ottavino 11.1 5.2 0.8 13.2% 28.0% .297 128 78 0.8 Jeff Nelson Matt Barnes 12.8 4.6 1.2 12.0% 33.5% .297 124 81 0.8 Mark Clear Michael Wacha 8.0 2.7 1.6 6.9% 20.3% .318 90 111 0.8 Brian Sweeney Raynel Espinal 7.7 3.4 1.5 8.5% 19.4% .300 90 111 0.7 Chris Brock Martín Pérez 6.9 3.6 1.4 8.8% 17.0% .313 89 112 0.7 Kent Mercker Zack Kelly 8.9 4.0 1.0 10.0% 22.6% .303 110 91 0.6 Jay Robertson John Schreiber 8.3 3.3 1.2 8.5% 21.0% .311 103 97 0.6 Hipolito Pichardo Brayan Bello 6.4 3.5 1.5 8.7% 16.0% .298 86 116 0.6 Nate Minchey Jay Groome 7.5 3.9 1.4 9.6% 18.7% .302 89 113 0.6 Justin Thompson Connor Seabold 7.5 3.1 1.4 7.9% 19.0% .302 91 110 0.6 Felix Diaz Josh Taylor 10.9 3.8 1.0 9.7% 28.3% .305 119 84 0.6 Will Ohman Darwinzon Hernandez 12.9 5.8 1.0 14.4% 32.3% .296 118 85 0.5 John Rocker Chris Murphy 7.6 3.7 1.7 9.1% 18.9% .303 86 116 0.5 Scott Lewis Hirokazu Sawamura 10.6 4.9 1.1 12.4% 26.7% .297 116 87 0.5 Jason Kershner Andrew Politi 7.9 5.0 1.2 12.2% 19.2% .306 89 113 0.4 Clint Nageotte Ryan Brasier 8.6 3.0 1.2 7.9% 22.6% .296 119 84 0.4 Donn Pall Zac Grotz 7.3 3.0 1.3 7.7% 18.6% .303 97 103 0.4 Jack Cressend Hansel Robles 9.6 3.8 1.4 9.7% 24.5% .294 104 96 0.3 Richie Lewis Alex Claudio 6.7 3.2 0.9 8.1% 16.7% .310 104 96 0.3 Jason Kershner Eduard Bazardo 8.2 3.3 1.6 8.3% 20.6% .299 97 104 0.3 Mark Brandenburg Frank German 5.8 3.8 1.5 9.2% 14.2% .303 84 120 0.3 Dan Smith Austin Davis 9.5 4.4 1.1 11.0% 23.8% .302 103 97 0.2 Ed Glynn Rio Gomez 7.9 3.7 1.1 9.3% 19.9% .306 102 98 0.2 Wilson Guzman Seth Blair 8.4 4.2 1.2 10.6% 21.1% .301 100 100 0.2 Bryce Florie Daniel Gossett 6.4 4.1 1.5 9.9% 15.5% .308 82 123 0.2 Dennis Tankersley Brandon Workman 9.9 5.4 1.4 13.6% 24.6% .287 101 99 0.2 John Hudek Brian Keller 7.7 4.7 1.5 11.4% 18.5% .308 83 120 0.2 Mike York Michael Feliz 9.4 3.7 1.3 9.3% 23.8% .306 98 102 0.1 Greg Jones Dominic LoBrutto 6.8 3.3 1.0 8.2% 16.8% .309 100 100 0.1 Dana Allison Brad Peacock 8.4 3.6 1.8 9.1% 21.2% .299 83 120 0.1 Craig McMurtry Austin Brice 8.5 4.1 1.4 10.0% 21.0% .295 94 107 0.1 Mike Butcher Kyle Hart 6.6 3.9 1.7 9.4% 16.0% .309 80 126 0.1 Huck Flener Jose Adames 8.7 4.2 1.4 10.6% 21.8% .292 98 102 0.1 Chad Harville Matt Hall 8.1 4.5 1.3 10.9% 19.5% .318 85 117 0.0 Dennis Powell Caleb Simpson 9.8 5.7 1.2 14.0% 24.0% .293 96 105 0.0 John Briscoe Brandon Brennan 7.3 4.1 1.2 10.1% 18.3% .298 94 107 0.0 John Kiely Geoff Hartlieb 8.8 5.3 0.9 12.8% 21.1% .317 92 109 -0.1 Mike MacDougal Durbin Feltman 8.4 4.6 1.3 11.3% 20.8% .300 91 110 -0.1 Blaine Neal Kaleb Ort 9.9 5.6 1.2 13.5% 24.2% .308 91 110 -0.1 Reggie Harris Joan Martinez 9.1 6.1 1.1 14.8% 21.9% .303 90 111 -0.1 Josh Banks Phillips Valdez 7.7 4.6 1.5 11.2% 18.4% .307 83 120 -0.1 William Ormond Bobby Poyner 8.2 3.4 1.9 8.4% 20.5% .301 86 117 -0.1 Shawn Barton Colten Brewer 8.1 4.9 1.7 11.9% 19.6% .301 82 122 -0.2 Keith Shepherd Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment. Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022. ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.