2022 ZiPS Projections: Atlanta Braves

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves.

Batters

Can the Braves win the World Series again? Yup! But it would be a lot easier to do if they could bring back Freddie Freeman. Sure, finishing his Atlanta career with a World Series trophy is a storybook ending, but that’s for a 39-year-old Freeman, so let’s can the epilogue for now. While it’s still taken as an assumption that he’ll return, the fact is he didn’t sign before the 2021 season, he didn’t sign during the 2021 season, and he didn’t sign before the lockout. Until he actually puts his pen to the dotted line, anything can happen, and until then, first base is the Braves’ biggest weakness.

ZiPS is projecting a solid return for Ronald Acuña Jr., but there’s still some danger in that outfield. It seems nearly certain that Marcell Ozuna will return, but from a baseball standpoint, he didn’t hit at all early last year. Now, imagine a scenario in which Acuña isn’t quite ready, Ozuna is struggling, and the Braves have to field a designated hitter in addition to cobbling together whatever at first. The outfield depth just isn’t that strong, especially with neither Cristian Pache nor Drew Waters having any kind of breakout years in Triple-A. There’s a reason that Alex Anthopoulos had to remake the outfield on the fly last summer, which is something that you ideally don’t have to do again in 2022.

If ZiPS isn’t high on Waters or Pache, it is increasingly confident in Shea Langeliers. If he continues to hit in Triple-A as he did in Double-A, I suspect you’ll see him get some late-season playing time as Atlanta slowly transitions from the Travis d’Arnaud/Manny Piña combo. I also wonder if William Contreras will beat his offensive projections if used as a DH, though our Depth Chart does not envision this right now. I’m disappointed to see Braden Shewmake’s projection; he was one of ZiPS’ favorites in the prospect ranks, but his 2021 was really disappointing, with a lot of backward progress with the bat and plate discipline.

Short of some really poor fortune with the outfield, Atlanta’s lineup should be one of the better ones in the league, buoyed by some real quality performers at the top. But the champs are not invincible, and an extra role player or two would be welcome, in addition to the Freeman return that I’m going to keep harping on. I would not be comfortable entering the season with a bench of John Nogowski, Travis Demeritte, and Guillermo Heredia.

Pitchers

No problems here! Max Fried, Charlie Morton, and Ian Anderson make a dandy top three, and ZiPS sees no red flags on any of them. OK, the projection reflects that Morton is at a point where aging becomes a real issue in addition to the typical pitcher-related attrition, but he’s starting off at a high level, with 5 WAR per 180 innings over the last three seasons. Combining a decline in walk rate with a velocity uptick also puts ZiPS onto Team Huascar; he’s projected to be one of the best fourth starters in the league. Atlanta doesn’t have the prospect depth that it had three or four years ago — a natural effect when a team transitions from rebuilding to winning the World Series — but between Mike Soroka, Tucker Davidson, Kyle Wright, and the excitement the computer has for Spencer Strider’s huge season, it doesn’t need to do much shopping here.

Even with losses to free agency, ZiPS remains highly confident in Atlanta’s bullpen, with Tyler Matzek, Will Smith, A.J. Minter, and both Jacksons (Luke and Jay) all projected as clearly better than league average. If healthy, Darren O’Day and Kirby Yates join that impressive list. There are some fallback options here, too, with the projections bullish on big, hard-throwing Indigo Diaz and Daysbel Hernández, another hard thrower with a Rich Garces-like appearance.

Unlike most teams, the Braves would probably be just fine if they didn’t sign a single additional pitcher this offseason. The Mets could still do more, but when the first early team projections launch next week, Atlanta is likely to be the NL East favorite.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Ronald Acuña Jr. R 24 RF 551 466 104 129 24 2 35 84 72 142 20 8
Ozzie Albies B 25 2B 682 627 106 174 40 7 26 91 47 120 19 4
Freddie Freeman L 32 1B 651 562 101 165 32 2 29 92 80 116 7 3
Austin Riley R 25 3B 632 568 82 154 30 2 31 96 51 172 0 1
Dansby Swanson R 28 SS 621 561 79 140 30 3 24 79 49 157 10 3
Adam Duvall R 33 RF 512 468 64 107 18 3 33 110 35 151 3 0
Jorge Soler R 30 RF 577 499 74 117 27 0 34 94 67 158 1 0
Shea Langeliers R 24 C 386 356 37 83 15 1 17 46 25 105 1 0
Marcell Ozuna R 31 LF 414 373 52 98 16 1 19 68 39 89 3 0
Orlando Arcia R 27 SS 468 426 46 105 19 1 14 51 34 85 6 3
Joc Pederson L 30 LF 468 416 62 100 19 3 23 73 40 110 2 3
Eddie Rosario L 30 LF 510 477 67 130 24 2 22 81 28 75 8 2
William Contreras R 24 C 380 342 44 86 12 1 15 48 32 102 0 0
Cristian Pache R 23 CF 464 428 56 96 22 3 14 48 30 130 7 7
Michael Harris II L 21 CF 455 418 63 101 21 2 11 46 27 98 15 3
Drew Waters B 23 LF 494 449 48 107 23 4 11 35 38 153 19 6
Manny Piña R 35 C 200 177 20 39 7 0 8 29 17 44 0 0
Travis d’Arnaud R 33 C 296 268 32 66 13 0 10 41 23 74 0 0
Travis Demeritte R 27 RF 438 390 56 89 21 2 19 57 41 147 6 2
Jason Kipnis L 35 2B 373 333 38 78 16 1 11 43 31 81 3 1
John Nogowski R 29 1B 408 357 50 85 16 0 8 43 40 63 3 1
Justin Dean R 25 CF 453 409 49 87 14 4 9 34 35 139 21 6
Braden Shewmake L 24 SS 365 344 36 79 16 2 10 37 18 81 5 2
Yariel Gonzalez B 28 3B 412 380 47 94 14 0 14 50 25 89 2 2
Yolmer Sánchez B 30 2B 448 404 49 94 18 4 6 38 34 103 6 3
Sean Kazmar Jr. R 37 3B 277 257 26 56 11 1 7 23 15 49 2 0
Jesse Franklin V L 23 RF 447 409 41 87 19 1 23 54 27 130 14 3
Jordan Cowan L 27 SS 411 374 40 89 15 1 4 27 31 82 12 3
Luke Waddell L 23 SS 134 123 15 29 4 0 5 14 8 27 2 1
Phillip Ervin R 29 LF 294 262 35 54 11 2 8 26 27 78 7 3
Chadwick Tromp R 27 C 228 209 25 45 8 1 8 25 14 58 0 1
Guillermo Heredia R 31 CF 320 282 39 63 19 0 6 24 28 74 1 1
Stephen Vogt L 37 C 237 210 23 43 10 1 7 27 24 59 0 0
Riley Unroe B 26 2B 385 348 34 77 13 2 7 29 31 101 7 5
Trey Harris R 26 RF 453 417 54 98 18 3 10 44 25 93 3 3
Jaycob Brugman L 30 RF 327 302 38 72 17 1 15 46 22 97 1 0
Ryan Goins L 34 SS 364 331 39 72 14 1 5 28 28 108 2 2
Jonathan Morales R 27 C 230 212 21 43 9 0 3 17 13 46 0 0
Ehire Adrianza B 32 RF 224 198 29 48 11 2 4 22 19 46 1 1
Kevan Smith R 34 C 163 148 15 34 7 0 2 12 12 36 1 0
Jonathan Lucroy R 36 C 249 221 24 52 9 1 5 27 20 44 0 0
Jalen Miller R 25 2B 434 398 42 83 17 2 12 42 27 118 10 5
Ryan Casteel R 31 1B 321 294 33 59 12 1 13 38 23 103 0 0
Terrance Gore R 31 LF 112 99 10 18 3 1 1 3 10 35 13 4
Travis Snider L 34 1B 248 218 27 44 9 1 5 21 27 81 2 1
CJ Alexander L 25 3B 319 294 26 56 12 2 9 26 22 103 10 1
Greyson Jenista L 25 1B 393 351 38 68 11 2 14 40 36 147 4 3
Drew Lugbauer L 25 1B 423 389 40 69 16 0 16 46 30 180 0 0

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Ronald Acuña Jr. .277 .383 .562 143 .285 .325 8.1 4 4.8 Frank Robinson
Ozzie Albies .278 .330 .488 110 .211 .308 6.2 4 4.2 Zoilo Versalles
Freddie Freeman .294 .386 .512 133 .219 .326 7.6 3 4.1 Will Clark
Austin Riley .271 .337 .495 114 .224 .337 6.1 -3 3.1 Brook Jacoby
Dansby Swanson .250 .313 .442 95 .193 .305 5.1 1 2.4 Leo Cardenas
Adam Duvall .229 .289 .491 99 .263 .261 5.0 9 2.0 Tom Brunansky
Jorge Soler .234 .331 .493 112 .259 .270 5.8 -6 1.8 Bill Melton
Shea Langeliers .233 .288 .424 83 .191 .282 4.3 6 1.6 Ronny Paulino
Marcell Ozuna .263 .333 .464 106 .201 .298 5.8 1 1.6 Terry Harper
Orlando Arcia .246 .303 .394 81 .148 .278 4.3 6 1.5 Billy Jurges
Joc Pederson .240 .318 .466 102 .226 .272 5.2 2 1.4 Mike Lum
Eddie Rosario .273 .310 .470 100 .197 .284 5.5 -1 1.2 Mel Hall
William Contreras .251 .324 .424 94 .173 .316 5.0 -7 0.9 Geovany Soto
Cristian Pache .224 .279 .388 72 .164 .289 3.6 9 0.9 Torii Hunter
Michael Harris II .242 .294 .380 75 .139 .291 4.2 5 0.9 Willie Canate
Drew Waters .238 .304 .381 78 .143 .337 4.3 8 0.9 Stan Javier
Manny Piña .220 .305 .395 82 .175 .248 4.2 4 0.9 Rick Dempsey
Travis d’Arnaud .246 .307 .407 85 .160 .304 4.5 -1 0.7 Damian Miller
Travis Demeritte .228 .307 .438 92 .210 .313 4.8 -1 0.6 Jack Voigt
Jason Kipnis .234 .305 .387 80 .153 .278 4.2 0 0.5 Marty McManus
John Nogowski .238 .324 .350 77 .112 .269 4.1 6 0.5 Virgil Chevalier
Justin Dean .213 .289 .333 63 .120 .299 3.5 6 0.5 Decomba Conner
Braden Shewmake .230 .271 .375 67 .145 .273 3.6 3 0.4 Clint Barmes
Yariel Gonzalez .247 .293 .395 78 .147 .289 4.1 1 0.4 Chris Brown
Yolmer Sánchez .233 .299 .342 68 .109 .298 3.6 4 0.4 Nelson Liriano
Sean Kazmar Jr. .218 .264 .350 59 .132 .244 3.3 7 0.3 Vinny Castilla
Jesse Franklin V .213 .268 .433 79 .220 .250 4.2 2 0.2 Greg Thomas
Jordan Cowan .238 .300 .316 62 .078 .295 3.5 0 0.1 Stu Cole
Luke Waddell .236 .286 .390 75 .154 .264 3.9 -1 0.1 Eric McNair
Phillip Ervin .206 .287 .355 67 .149 .261 3.5 5 0.1 Phil Dauphin
Chadwick Tromp .215 .269 .378 67 .163 .259 3.4 -1 0.0 Jim Horner
Guillermo Heredia .223 .310 .355 74 .131 .282 3.8 -2 0.0 Bobby Del Greco
Stephen Vogt .205 .284 .362 68 .157 .250 3.5 -2 0.0 Jim Hegan
Riley Unroe .221 .289 .330 62 .109 .292 3.2 2 -0.1 Lionel Hastings
Trey Harris .235 .292 .365 71 .129 .280 3.7 4 -0.2 Mike Dzurilla
Jaycob Brugman .238 .294 .450 91 .212 .300 4.7 -7 -0.2 Mendy Lopez 로페즈
Ryan Goins .218 .279 .311 55 .094 .307 2.9 2 -0.2 Jorge Velandia
Jonathan Morales .203 .253 .288 42 .085 .245 2.5 3 -0.3 Fausto Tejero
Ehire Adrianza .242 .314 .379 81 .136 .297 4.2 -4 -0.4 Jack Daugherty
Kevan Smith .230 .294 .318 61 .088 .291 3.3 -4 -0.4 Rick Cerone
Jonathan Lucroy .235 .304 .353 72 .118 .273 3.8 -8 -0.4 Joe Girardi
Jalen Miller .209 .262 .352 59 .143 .265 3.1 2 -0.4 Nick Ortiz
Ryan Casteel .201 .263 .381 66 .180 .258 3.4 2 -0.5 Jay Gainer
Terrance Gore .182 .270 .263 41 .081 .270 2.8 -1 -0.5 Esix Snead
Travis Snider .202 .291 .321 61 .119 .295 3.2 0 -0.6 Dann Howitt
CJ Alexander .190 .248 .337 51 .146 .258 3.1 0 -0.6 Duane Thielen
Greyson Jenista .194 .270 .356 62 .162 .284 3.2 1 -0.9 Ian Bladergroen
Drew Lugbauer .177 .241 .342 50 .165 .275 2.7 0 -1.7 Bryan Britt

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Max Fried L 28 14 7 3.24 27 27 158.3 139 57 15 38 153 3.33
Charlie Morton R 38 12 6 3.44 30 30 164.7 137 63 17 56 186 3.54
Ian Anderson R 24 9 5 3.74 28 28 139.7 118 58 15 61 149 3.86
Huascar Ynoa R 24 6 4 4.05 23 20 104.3 95 47 15 37 114 4.07
Kyle Wright R 26 9 8 4.58 27 26 137.7 136 70 19 54 125 4.49
Bryce Elder R 23 9 8 4.58 26 26 131.7 130 67 18 57 119 4.61
Kyle Muller L 24 9 7 4.55 27 26 116.7 105 59 15 64 122 4.56
Spencer Strider R 23 6 5 4.50 25 22 94.0 90 47 14 39 95 4.50
Drew Smyly L 33 7 6 4.74 26 21 114.0 116 60 21 38 112 4.66
Alan Rangel R 24 8 7 4.76 24 22 104.0 107 55 16 38 91 4.70
Tucker Davidson L 26 6 5 4.57 18 18 84.7 80 43 10 46 83 4.53
Tyler Matzek L 31 3 1 3.12 57 0 52.0 37 18 3 29 70 3.08
A.J. Minter L 28 6 3 3.36 64 0 56.3 47 21 5 21 71 3.04
Will Smith L 32 5 3 3.69 65 0 61.0 48 25 10 22 80 3.87
Mike Soroka R 24 4 3 4.23 10 10 55.3 58 26 7 15 43 4.19
Freddy Tarnok R 23 6 5 4.78 18 16 79.0 78 42 12 34 75 4.70
Sean Newcomb L 29 5 4 4.44 44 8 77.0 69 38 11 38 84 4.45
Nolan Kingham R 25 7 7 5.12 22 20 110.7 126 63 18 33 66 5.16
Tanner Roark R 35 6 6 4.99 25 16 95.7 102 53 18 33 83 5.11
Touki Toussaint R 26 6 5 5.01 25 18 91.7 87 51 15 50 97 5.09
Jasseel De La Cruz R 25 4 4 4.96 23 19 81.7 84 45 11 40 67 4.91
Hayden Deal L 27 4 4 5.05 23 17 87.3 96 49 12 36 57 5.07
Luke Jackson R 30 3 2 3.94 65 0 61.7 56 27 8 27 72 3.99
Chris Martin R 36 3 2 3.71 46 0 43.7 44 18 6 7 38 3.84
Kirby Yates R 35 3 1 3.41 33 0 31.7 25 12 4 11 44 3.27
Jesse Chavez R 38 3 2 4.33 42 4 54.0 52 26 8 17 49 4.35
Corbin Clouse L 27 2 1 4.13 21 3 32.7 30 15 4 15 32 4.37
Jay Jackson R 34 3 2 3.98 39 1 40.7 33 18 6 18 53 3.97
Brooks Wilson R 26 3 2 4.63 35 3 58.3 57 30 9 24 58 4.59
Dylan Lee L 27 4 3 4.15 40 0 47.7 44 22 6 17 48 4.06
Richard Rodríguez R 32 5 4 4.34 61 0 58.0 55 28 11 15 56 4.65
Daysbel Hernández R 25 3 2 4.20 38 0 45.0 41 21 5 25 47 4.34
Jacob Webb R 28 6 4 4.31 55 0 54.3 50 26 8 23 59 4.30
Edgar Santana R 30 3 2 4.19 43 0 43.0 43 20 6 12 37 4.18
Indigo Diaz R 23 5 4 4.25 34 0 42.3 39 20 6 17 47 4.15
Jackson Stephens R 28 6 5 4.83 46 3 82.0 83 44 12 38 75 4.79
Victor Vodnik R 22 3 3 5.22 14 11 39.7 40 23 5 23 34 5.07
Odalvi Javier R 25 5 6 5.50 26 17 93.3 100 57 14 47 70 5.30
Darren O’Day R 39 1 0 3.75 14 0 12.0 10 5 1 4 14 3.43
Jared Shuster L 23 1 1 5.58 19 18 71.0 77 44 16 26 61 5.66
Connor Johnstone R 27 5 5 5.42 33 14 73.0 84 44 13 21 47 5.23
Jesse Biddle L 30 1 1 4.50 41 0 44.0 40 22 6 24 50 4.59
A.J. Puckett R 27 4 5 5.59 17 14 67.7 76 42 10 35 45 5.50
Grant Dayton L 34 1 1 4.43 18 0 20.3 19 10 3 9 23 4.31
Brandon White R 27 4 3 4.68 33 0 42.3 41 22 6 21 40 4.76
Chasen Bradford R 32 2 2 4.76 34 0 45.3 48 24 7 15 34 4.81
Thomas Burrows L 27 3 2 4.93 38 1 49.3 44 27 8 31 58 5.00
Allan Winans R 26 2 2 4.81 27 0 39.3 41 21 5 18 31 4.78
Josh Tomlin R 37 2 2 5.08 34 2 56.7 64 32 12 8 45 4.82
Troy Bacon R 25 3 2 4.93 32 0 42.0 42 23 6 20 37 4.92
Tyler Ferguson R 28 5 5 5.08 22 0 28.3 29 16 3 15 22 4.70
Mitch Horacek L 30 2 2 5.13 32 0 33.3 33 19 5 19 32 5.10
Jake Higginbotham L 26 2 2 5.18 21 0 33.0 33 19 5 20 31 5.27
Will Latcham R 26 2 2 5.53 33 0 40.7 44 25 6 23 31 5.42
Jay Flaa R 30 2 2 6.00 36 1 48.0 50 32 10 29 46 5.97

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Max Fried 8.7 2.2 0.9 5.9% 23.6% .285 139 72 4.0 Denny Neagle
Charlie Morton 10.2 3.1 0.9 8.1% 26.9% .287 131 76 3.8 David Cone
Ian Anderson 9.6 3.9 1.0 10.3% 25.1% .283 121 83 2.8 Dan Petry
Huascar Ynoa 9.8 3.2 1.3 8.4% 25.7% .294 111 90 1.7 Taylor Buchholz
Kyle Wright 8.2 3.5 1.2 9.0% 20.8% .296 99 101 1.6 Enrique Gonzalez
Bryce Elder 8.1 3.9 1.2 9.8% 20.5% .296 99 101 1.6 Brandon Webb
Kyle Muller 9.4 4.9 1.2 12.4% 23.6% .290 99 101 1.4 Tim Birtsas
Spencer Strider 9.1 3.7 1.3 9.5% 23.2% .296 100 100 1.2 Juan Dominguez
Drew Smyly 8.8 3.0 1.7 7.8% 22.9% .300 95 105 1.1 Jon Matlack
Alan Rangel 7.9 3.3 1.4 8.4% 20.0% .299 95 105 1.0 Anthony Telford
Tucker Davidson 8.8 4.9 1.1 12.2% 22.0% .298 99 101 1.0 Bryan Hickerson
Tyler Matzek 12.1 5.0 0.5 13.1% 31.5% .291 145 69 1.0 Damaso Marte
A.J. Minter 11.3 3.4 0.8 8.9% 30.1% .307 135 74 0.9 Willie Hernandez
Will Smith 11.8 3.2 1.5 8.8% 31.9% .277 122 82 0.9 Eddie Guardado
Mike Soroka 7.0 2.4 1.1 6.3% 18.1% .300 107 94 0.9 Tom Bradley
Freddy Tarnok 8.5 3.9 1.4 9.8% 21.6% .297 94 106 0.8 Bartolo Colon
Sean Newcomb 9.8 4.4 1.3 11.3% 25.0% .290 102 98 0.7 Al Hrabosky
Nolan Kingham 5.4 2.7 1.5 6.8% 13.5% .296 88 113 0.7 Dave Geeve
Tanner Roark 7.8 3.1 1.7 7.8% 19.7% .299 91 110 0.7 John Wasdin
Touki Toussaint 9.5 4.9 1.5 12.1% 23.4% .295 90 111 0.6 Todd Worrell
Jasseel De La Cruz 7.4 4.4 1.2 10.9% 18.3% .298 91 110 0.6 Greg Aquino
Hayden Deal 5.9 3.7 1.2 9.2% 14.5% .298 89 112 0.6 Jimmy Anderson
Luke Jackson 10.5 3.9 1.2 10.1% 27.0% .306 115 87 0.6 Mike MacDougal
Chris Martin 7.8 1.4 1.2 3.9% 21.0% .297 122 82 0.5 Paul Quantrill
Kirby Yates 12.5 3.1 1.1 8.4% 33.6% .300 132 76 0.5 Tom Gordon
Jesse Chavez 8.2 2.8 1.3 7.4% 21.4% .288 104 96 0.5 Mike Timlin
Corbin Clouse 8.8 4.1 1.1 10.5% 22.4% .289 109 92 0.4 Shane Rawley
Jay Jackson 11.7 4.0 1.3 10.4% 30.6% .287 113 88 0.4 Rich DeLucia
Brooks Wilson 8.9 3.7 1.4 9.4% 22.7% .298 98 102 0.3 Rich Monteleone
Dylan Lee 9.1 3.2 1.1 8.3% 23.5% .292 109 92 0.3 Scott Stewart
Richard Rodríguez 8.7 2.3 1.7 6.2% 23.0% .278 104 96 0.3 Jerry Spradlin
Daysbel Hernández 9.4 5.0 1.0 12.5% 23.5% .298 108 93 0.3 Wayne Nix
Jacob Webb 9.8 3.8 1.3 9.8% 25.2% .296 105 95 0.3 Edwin Nunez
Edgar Santana 7.7 2.5 1.3 6.6% 20.3% .294 108 93 0.3 Julio Mateo
Indigo Diaz 10.0 3.6 1.3 9.3% 25.8% .300 106 94 0.2 Luis DeLeon
Jackson Stephens 8.2 4.2 1.3 10.4% 20.5% .301 94 107 0.2 John Riedling
Victor Vodnik 7.7 5.2 1.1 12.6% 18.7% .299 87 116 0.2 Arnie Munoz
Odalvi Javier 6.8 4.5 1.4 11.1% 16.5% .298 82 122 0.2 Allen Edwards
Darren O’Day 10.5 3.0 0.8 7.8% 27.5% .300 120 83 0.1 Russ Springer
Jared Shuster 7.7 3.3 2.0 8.3% 19.4% .293 81 123 0.1 Mike Jones
Connor Johnstone 5.8 2.6 1.6 6.5% 14.6% .300 83 120 0.1 Jason Simontacchi
Jesse Biddle 10.2 4.9 1.2 12.2% 25.4% .301 100 100 0.1 Tim Fortugno
A.J. Puckett 6.0 4.7 1.3 11.2% 14.4% .301 81 124 0.1 Sean White
Grant Dayton 10.2 4.0 1.3 10.1% 25.8% .302 102 98 0.1 Bill Henry
Brandon White 8.5 4.5 1.3 11.2% 21.3% .294 97 104 0.1 Mike Schultz
Chasen Bradford 6.8 3.0 1.4 7.6% 17.2% .293 95 106 0.0 Nate Snell
Thomas Burrows 10.6 5.7 1.5 13.9% 26.0% .293 92 109 0.0 Dick Littlefield
Allan Winans 7.1 4.1 1.1 10.2% 17.6% .300 94 106 0.0 Casey Daigle
Josh Tomlin 7.1 1.3 1.9 3.3% 18.8% .301 89 113 0.0 Dick Hall
Troy Bacon 7.9 4.3 1.3 10.6% 19.7% .295 92 109 -0.1 Steve LaRose
Tyler Ferguson 7.0 4.8 1.0 11.7% 17.2% .299 89 113 -0.1 Newt Kimball
Mitch Horacek 8.6 5.1 1.4 12.5% 21.1% .298 88 114 -0.1 Arnold Earley
Jake Higginbotham 8.5 5.5 1.4 13.2% 20.4% .298 87 115 -0.1 Jeff Ridgway
Will Latcham 6.9 5.1 1.3 12.2% 16.5% .302 82 123 -0.3 Rick Greene
Jay Flaa 8.6 5.4 1.9 13.0% 20.6% .296 75 133 -0.5 Bart Evans

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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kylerkelton
5 months ago

The optimism that ZiPS has for the pitching depth is really encouraging.