2022 ZiPS Projections: Atlanta Braves

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves.

Batters

Can the Braves win the World Series again? Yup! But it would be a lot easier to do if they could bring back Freddie Freeman. Sure, finishing his Atlanta career with a World Series trophy is a storybook ending, but that’s for a 39-year-old Freeman, so let’s can the epilogue for now. While it’s still taken as an assumption that he’ll return, the fact is he didn’t sign before the 2021 season, he didn’t sign during the 2021 season, and he didn’t sign before the lockout. Until he actually puts his pen to the dotted line, anything can happen, and until then, first base is the Braves’ biggest weakness.

ZiPS is projecting a solid return for Ronald Acuña Jr., but there’s still some danger in that outfield. It seems nearly certain that Marcell Ozuna will return, but from a baseball standpoint, he didn’t hit at all early last year. Now, imagine a scenario in which Acuña isn’t quite ready, Ozuna is struggling, and the Braves have to field a designated hitter in addition to cobbling together whatever at first. The outfield depth just isn’t that strong, especially with neither Cristian Pache nor Drew Waters having any kind of breakout years in Triple-A. There’s a reason that Alex Anthopoulos had to remake the outfield on the fly last summer, which is something that you ideally don’t have to do again in 2022.

If ZiPS isn’t high on Waters or Pache, it is increasingly confident in Shea Langeliers. If he continues to hit in Triple-A as he did in Double-A, I suspect you’ll see him get some late-season playing time as Atlanta slowly transitions from the Travis d’Arnaud/Manny Piña combo. I also wonder if William Contreras will beat his offensive projections if used as a DH, though our Depth Chart does not envision this right now. I’m disappointed to see Braden Shewmake’s projection; he was one of ZiPS’ favorites in the prospect ranks, but his 2021 was really disappointing, with a lot of backward progress with the bat and plate discipline.

Short of some really poor fortune with the outfield, Atlanta’s lineup should be one of the better ones in the league, buoyed by some real quality performers at the top. But the champs are not invincible, and an extra role player or two would be welcome, in addition to the Freeman return that I’m going to keep harping on. I would not be comfortable entering the season with a bench of John Nogowski, Travis Demeritte, and Guillermo Heredia.

Pitchers

No problems here! Max Fried, Charlie Morton, and Ian Anderson make a dandy top three, and ZiPS sees no red flags on any of them. OK, the projection reflects that Morton is at a point where aging becomes a real issue in addition to the typical pitcher-related attrition, but he’s starting off at a high level, with 5 WAR per 180 innings over the last three seasons. Combining a decline in walk rate with a velocity uptick also puts ZiPS onto Team Huascar; he’s projected to be one of the best fourth starters in the league. Atlanta doesn’t have the prospect depth that it had three or four years ago — a natural effect when a team transitions from rebuilding to winning the World Series — but between Mike Soroka, Tucker Davidson, Kyle Wright, and the excitement the computer has for Spencer Strider’s huge season, it doesn’t need to do much shopping here.

Even with losses to free agency, ZiPS remains highly confident in Atlanta’s bullpen, with Tyler Matzek, Will Smith, A.J. Minter, and both Jacksons (Luke and Jay) all projected as clearly better than league average. If healthy, Darren O’Day and Kirby Yates join that impressive list. There are some fallback options here, too, with the projections bullish on big, hard-throwing Indigo Diaz and Daysbel Hernández, another hard thrower with a Rich Garces-like appearance.

Unlike most teams, the Braves would probably be just fine if they didn’t sign a single additional pitcher this offseason. The Mets could still do more, but when the first early team projections launch next week, Atlanta is likely to be the NL East favorite.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.