2023 ZiPS Projections: Tampa Bay Rays

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot. Rounding out the 2023 projections? The Tampa Bay Rays.

Batters

The Rays lineup presents a tale of two offenses. On the good side is a team with one of the best 2B/3B/SS combinations in the majors. Yandy Díaz had a monster 2022 season, basically as offensively amazing as it’s possible for a corner infielder with below-average power to be. ZiPS is low on Díaz relative to Steamer and The Bat, and his projection here is still excellent. It’s a real shame that he’s somehow still underrated in the eyes of fans, even in an age when most people realize on-base percentage is a thing. Díaz isn’t quite Eddie Yost or Eddie Joost in terms of pure walk rate, but he’s a mold-breaker along similar lines. With Isaac Paredes needing at-bats of his own and Curtis Mead aggressively pushing his way up from the minors, the Rays will almost certainly continue to use Díaz at multiple positions. I’d be happy with any of those three as my starting third baseman.

Brandon Lowe had a disappointing, injury-filled season, but it would take some severe recency bias to forgot that he was an elite second baseman in 2021, which wasn’t exactly an eon ago. Wanderkind Franco had his own injury problems in 2022, but he’s still very young, certainly young enough that you shouldn’t fret about it too much (yet). With some luck in terms of health, the Rays will have one of baseball’s best infields even if they get very little out of first base. Unfortunately, the computer doesn’t expect the Rays to get much out of first base. ZiPS has never been in on Jonathan Aranda, even after his most promising minor league season yet. Given the offensive explosion in the minors, ZiPS doesn’t translate his .318/.394/.521, 18-homer season for Durham as well as you might think, only having him at a .276/.341/.420, 12-homer season. Combine that with a poor debut and you can see why ZiPS really hopes that Aranda’s future is at second, not first. The player ZiPS does like is Kyle Manzardo, who gets a translation of .267/.346/.456 for his age-21 season, his first full pro campaign. Manzardo has a very good chance to be the top first baseman on the ZiPS Top 100 Prospects list next month.

The other tale, where ZiPS tells a sadder story, is in the outfield. The computer sees the team’s likely outfield options as acceptable and deep, but far less compelling than the infielders, and without much in the way of star-level upside. It may seem a little mean, especially to Randy Arozarena, but he’s not a massive power hitter outside of his playoff flurry and he makes a good deal of outs without much glove to add value. Both he and Manuel Margot have probably already shown their peaks. The outfield, at least as the projections came out, won’t keep the Rays out of a playoff spot, but it won’t push them into one, either. Assuming none of the extra infielders are traded, I imagine the shuffle there will result in a few of those guys (Mead?) ending up strengthening the outfield.

Pitchers

The rotation starts with Shane McClanahan, who now belongs in the top tier of American League starters, meaning those who enter the season with a realistic chance of winning the Cy Young award. I fully agree with ZiPS that McClanahan is for real, and there’s a long way to go before he gets expensive enough for the Rays to start talking trade. Drew Rasmussen looks solid, but a lot of how good this rotation ends up being may come down to what the Rays gets out of Tyler Glasnow. I think everyone, including the projections, thinks he’ll be good, but how much Glasnow can we realistically expect? He’s been a 200-inning pitcher…over the last four years. The good news is that Jeffrey Springs took very well to starting — he was one of my breakout picks before 2021 — and Zach Eflin is definitely in the top tier of fifth starters.

The rotation isn’t nearly as patchwork as it has been in recent seasons, and losing Glasnow or another projected starter to a serious injury may only drop the Rays to being a top-six rotation instead of, say, a top-three one. And even though Shane Baz will miss the 2023 season, the reinforcements here are solid. ZiPS is optimistic about both Taj Bradley and Mason Montgomery, and likes both as much as any of the starter prospects in the minors, with the possible exception of Grayson Rodriguez. Luis Patiño will be 23 for the entire 2023 season and Josh Fleming is still hanging around as the final firewall, the way Josh Tomlin made his fortune for years.

ZiPS doesn’t see any of the relievers as being in the very top tier of the league (Pete Fairbanks comes the closest, with the 20th-best projected ERA+ among all relievers). But the depth is impressive, both in terms of above-average arms and the guys the Rays specialize in: relievers you’ve never heard of who come out of nowhere in July and perform adequately. In terms of relief depth, I think the Rays are the only team to even come close to the Braves in the projections.

So, where do the Rays end up? Somewhere around 90 wins seems like a fair bet, but I’m not sure they’re on the same level as the Blue Jays or Yankees. Maybe I’d feel differently with a slightly better 1B/OF situation. Whatever happens, the Rays are likely to remain baseball’s most successful low-payroll team. And given how little the Rays have been able to monetize their success, don’t expect their incentives to invest in payroll to change very much. As I’ve argued elsewhere, a system in which the Rays get a lot less money when they win 70 games but a lot more than they currently do when they win 95 is necessary if you want to see more players stay in St. Petersburg.

Next up: Getting ZiPS onto the player pages and into the pre-spring training standings!

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Wander Franco B 22 SS 434 396 61 111 24 6 12 56 33 47 8 2
Brandon Lowe L 28 2B 465 410 65 101 22 2 24 71 46 119 4 1
Randy Arozarena R 28 LF 610 542 80 142 33 3 20 83 50 151 25 11
Isaac Paredes R 24 3B 514 445 64 102 23 1 25 73 58 92 0 2
Yandy Díaz R 31 3B 517 444 65 121 24 1 12 55 66 68 2 2
Jose Siri R 27 CF 446 413 58 93 18 3 14 55 26 154 17 3
Christian Bethancourt 베탄코트 R 31 C 329 309 36 73 15 0 12 45 16 84 3 1
Josh Lowe L 25 RF 536 480 62 109 26 3 14 61 50 176 18 2
Taylor Walls B 26 SS 449 393 56 82 20 3 9 41 50 115 12 6
Kyle Manzardo L 22 1B 380 328 51 82 20 1 14 54 41 80 0 1
Curtis Mead R 22 3B 389 351 43 86 24 1 10 52 28 82 4 2
Vidal Bruján B 25 SS 484 441 62 105 21 3 8 50 37 91 25 11
Manuel Margot R 28 RF 429 393 48 96 18 2 9 47 32 75 12 5
Osleivis Basabe R 22 3B 480 444 59 110 24 4 3 46 28 74 10 3
Francisco Mejía B 27 C 309 289 34 72 19 2 7 35 13 63 0 1
David Peralta L 35 LF 446 405 41 95 23 3 11 50 35 101 1 1
René Pinto R 26 C 377 354 33 77 19 1 11 46 19 123 1 1
Luke Raley L 28 1B 362 319 46 72 11 1 13 49 24 112 4 2
Kameron Misner L 25 CF 478 421 52 83 20 1 9 52 50 169 13 3
Greg Jones B 25 SS 347 315 43 64 11 3 6 38 23 135 18 3
Jonathan Aranda L 25 1B 497 442 58 107 21 2 12 62 40 119 2 1
Mason Auer R 22 RF 526 477 60 105 17 7 10 59 36 141 22 5
Nick Dini R 29 C 202 184 24 42 8 0 7 25 14 43 2 1
Alika Williams R 24 SS 395 359 45 79 13 1 5 35 28 93 3 4
Harold Ramírez R 28 1B 450 421 46 112 24 1 9 55 19 77 3 3
Tanner Murray R 23 3B 245 230 26 53 13 1 4 28 9 54 3 2
Dillon Paulson L 26 1B 296 261 33 55 13 1 7 29 31 88 1 1
Johan Lopez R 22 3B 326 288 37 56 12 0 6 33 25 107 6 2
Niko Hulsizer R 26 RF 378 339 45 66 17 1 13 45 33 161 6 2
Logan Driscoll L 25 C 244 220 24 46 11 1 4 25 18 69 1 1
Ruben Cardenas R 25 RF 419 387 46 85 14 3 14 51 26 124 4 4
Grant Witherspoon L 26 RF 465 428 51 93 19 3 12 51 32 131 8 4
Ronny Simon B 23 2B 451 420 50 89 18 3 12 51 24 111 13 4
Garrett Hiott L 25 CF 246 221 24 43 6 2 3 24 17 83 7 3
Alexander Ovalles L 22 1B 420 379 46 82 16 2 9 46 33 108 4 3
Heriberto Hernandez R 23 LF 457 405 51 79 18 1 14 55 41 173 3 2
Austin Shenton L 25 3B 291 260 31 53 14 1 6 35 25 94 0 1
Tristan Gray L 27 SS 450 413 49 83 16 2 16 55 28 148 2 2
Abiezel Ramirez B 23 2B 283 258 28 52 8 3 6 28 22 111 5 2
Blake Hunt R 24 C 337 311 31 61 15 1 5 30 21 100 1 1
Jordan Qsar L 27 LF 400 360 42 65 13 4 12 46 36 175 6 3
David Rodríguez R 27 DH 204 189 20 39 7 1 5 21 14 62 1 1
Ryan Boldt L 28 CF 297 274 29 57 13 1 6 32 19 96 6 1
Roberto Alvarez R 23 C 258 235 22 52 7 2 1 20 15 54 1 1
Erik Ostberg L 27 DH 208 189 18 37 5 1 5 20 17 72 1 1
Evan Edwards L 26 1B 346 304 32 57 9 1 10 39 35 139 3 1
Diego Infante R 23 RF 472 433 55 97 18 2 10 52 33 164 6 5
Tristan Peters L 23 LF 516 468 57 105 20 7 6 49 41 118 10 6
Tyler Frank L 26 2B 243 221 23 41 7 1 1 19 14 81 4 2
Alejandro Pie R 21 3B 187 172 17 25 4 0 1 15 9 90 6 1

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Wander Franco 434 .280 .336 .462 125 .182 .294 1 3.4 .342
Brandon Lowe 465 .246 .331 .485 129 .239 .288 -1 3.4 .349
Randy Arozarena 610 .262 .339 .445 122 .183 .329 1 3.1 .338
Isaac Paredes 514 .229 .323 .454 119 .225 .235 1 3.1 .334
Yandy Díaz 517 .273 .369 .412 123 .140 .299 -5 3.0 .343
Jose Siri 446 .225 .276 .385 86 .160 .322 7 1.9 .286
Christian Bethancourt 329 .236 .277 .401 91 .165 .286 4 1.6 .293
Josh Lowe 536 .227 .301 .381 93 .154 .328 6 1.6 .297
Taylor Walls 449 .209 .299 .344 83 .135 .271 3 1.5 .284
Kyle Manzardo 380 .250 .334 .445 120 .195 .291 0 1.4 .334
Curtis Mead 389 .245 .311 .405 103 .160 .293 -2 1.4 .311
Vidal Bruján 484 .238 .302 .354 87 .116 .284 -1 1.4 .289
Manuel Margot 429 .244 .303 .369 91 .125 .282 8 1.3 .293
Osleivis Basabe 480 .248 .297 .340 82 .092 .292 3 1.1 .280
Francisco Mejía 309 .249 .291 .401 95 .152 .297 -2 1.1 .299
David Peralta 446 .235 .298 .388 94 .153 .287 5 1.0 .296
René Pinto 377 .218 .263 .370 78 .153 .300 2 1.0 .274
Luke Raley 362 .226 .310 .389 98 .163 .304 2 0.8 .307
Kameron Misner 478 .197 .289 .314 72 .116 .305 3 0.8 .271
Greg Jones 347 .203 .274 .314 68 .111 .333 2 0.6 .262
Jonathan Aranda 497 .242 .316 .380 98 .138 .305 -2 0.5 .305
Mason Auer 526 .220 .283 .348 79 .128 .291 4 0.4 .277
Nick Dini 202 .228 .292 .386 92 .158 .261 -4 0.3 .296
Alika Williams 395 .220 .281 .304 68 .084 .284 0 0.1 .261
Harold Ramírez 450 .266 .307 .392 98 .126 .307 -4 0.1 .302
Tanner Murray 245 .230 .273 .348 76 .117 .285 0 0.1 .271
Dillon Paulson 296 .211 .294 .349 83 .138 .289 2 0.0 .282
Johan Lopez 326 .194 .275 .299 64 .104 .286 1 0.0 .258
Niko Hulsizer 378 .195 .272 .366 80 .171 .321 1 0.0 .278
Logan Driscoll 244 .209 .279 .323 72 .114 .286 -4 -0.1 .267
Ruben Cardenas 419 .220 .272 .380 84 .160 .285 1 -0.1 .281
Grant Witherspoon 465 .217 .273 .360 79 .143 .284 3 -0.1 .275
Ronny Simon 451 .212 .256 .355 72 .143 .259 -2 -0.1 .264
Garrett Hiott 246 .195 .266 .281 57 .086 .296 2 -0.1 .247
Alexander Ovalles 420 .216 .286 .340 78 .124 .279 3 -0.2 .277
Heriberto Hernandez 457 .195 .280 .348 78 .153 .298 1 -0.2 .277
Austin Shenton 291 .204 .285 .335 77 .131 .294 -5 -0.3 .276
Tristan Gray 450 .201 .260 .366 76 .165 .269 -9 -0.3 .272
Abiezel Ramirez 283 .202 .266 .326 68 .124 .326 -3 -0.3 .261
Blake Hunt 337 .196 .255 .299 58 .103 .272 -2 -0.4 .246
Jordan Qsar 400 .181 .263 .339 70 .158 .306 2 -0.4 .264
David Rodríguez 204 .206 .265 .333 70 .127 .279 0 -0.5 .263
Ryan Boldt 297 .208 .266 .328 69 .120 .297 -5 -0.5 .262
Roberto Alvarez 258 .221 .280 .281 62 .060 .283 -5 -0.5 .252
Erik Ostberg 208 .196 .264 .312 64 .116 .286 0 -0.6 .256
Evan Edwards 346 .188 .280 .322 72 .135 .303 -1 -0.7 .270
Diego Infante 472 .224 .282 .344 78 .120 .336 -4 -0.9 .274
Tristan Peters 516 .224 .289 .335 78 .111 .288 -5 -1.0 .275
Tyler Frank 243 .186 .247 .240 40 .054 .288 -2 -1.1 .221
Alejandro Pie 187 .145 .209 .186 14 .041 .296 -4 -1.7 .184

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Wander Franco Arky Vaughan Bill Madlock Freddie Lindstrom
Brandon Lowe Bobby Doerr Pedro Guerrero Max Muncy
Randy Arozarena Minnie Minoso Starling Marte Shane Mack
Isaac Paredes Bob Horner Mike Cubbage Joe Cronin
Yandy Díaz Ron Hunt Dave Magadan Bill Mueller
Jose Siri Johnny Jeter Glenallen Hill Bobby Brown
Christian Bethancourt Lorenzo Quintana Elston Howard Mike Rivera
Josh Lowe Mack Jones Justin Ruggiano Jim Landis
Taylor Walls Tony Phillips Lance Blankenship Josh Johnson
Kyle Manzardo Chris Garcia Keith Hernandez Jason Thompson
Curtis Mead Gordon Beckham Ian Kinsler Ryan Zimmerman
Vidal Bruján Brian Roberts Luis Rengifo Toby Harrah
Manuel Margot Angel Pagan Marquis Grissom Joe Orsulak
Osleivis Basabe Bob Aspromonte Tyler Freeman Starlin Castro
Francisco Mejía Don Slaught Mackey Sasser Sandy Alomar
David Peralta Chuck Tanner Andy Van Slyke David DeJesus
René Pinto George Mitterwald Yan Gomes Humberto Cota
Luke Raley Lee Walls Tom Burgess Rick Joseph
Kameron Misner Derek Lee Ray McDavid Pepe Mangual
Greg Jones Andrew Velazquez Jay Woolf Marcos Yepez
Jonathan Aranda Broderick Perkins Chris Chambliss Ossie Blanco
Mason Auer Gino Cimoli Barry Shetrone Carlos Gómez
Nick Dini Choo-Choo Coleman Mark Salas Buck Crouse
Alika Williams Mark Raynor Raul Navarro Mike Collins
Harold Ramírez Eddie Waitkus Walt Williams Dick Siebert
Tanner Murray Julio Linares Evan Mendoza Gary Dempsey
Dillon Paulson Pat Garman Pat Magness Bud Zipfel
Johan Lopez Stanley Walters Mark Linden Pat Garrigan
Niko Hulsizer Chuck Essegian Dom Fucci Vince DiMaggio
Logan Driscoll Gene Lamont Don Bryant Tim McConnell
Ruben Cardenas Ryan Ward Danny Napoleon Zach Borenstein
Grant Witherspoon Daniel Ortmeier Nic Jackson Paul Hertzler
Ronny Simon Kevin Castleberry Omar Infante Shelby Ford
Garrett Hiott Ryan Fitzgerald Jose Paulino Jason Alstead
Alexander Ovalles Charlie Vinson Tom Lombarski Barry Poris
Heriberto Hernandez Stetson Allie LeRoy Robbins Micah Franklin 프랭클린
Austin Shenton Jake Lamb Jarrod Patterson Vern Fuller
Tristan Gray Roy Smalley John Scoras Leo Burke
Abiezel Ramirez Gary Perez Wayne Ristig Anderson Feliz
Blake Hunt Jeremy Lewis Dane Phillips Henri Lartigue
Jordan Qsar Brett Jackson Mike Rogodzinski D.J. Dozier
David Rodríguez Jose Brizuela Gary Mota Nick Mahin
Ryan Boldt Sam Mejias Billy Murphy Casanova Donaldson
Roberto Alvarez John Draper Gilberto Vizcarra Jorge Maduro
Erik Ostberg Gary Mota Bo Bowman Gib Seibert
Evan Edwards Eric Crozier Greyson Jenista Jim Orsag
Diego Infante Bob DiPietro Maurice Galand Hollis Powell
Tristan Peters Jim Piersall Jim Wohlford James Ramsay
Tyler Frank Jorge Mejia Ryan Metzler Jason Christian
Alejandro Pie Agustin Septimo Benny Bautista Dean White

Hitters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Wander Franco .306 .365 .519 148 4.7 .249 .306 .399 102 2.2
Brandon Lowe .268 .353 .543 149 4.5 .223 .309 .426 109 2.3
Randy Arozarena .286 .362 .491 140 4.6 .237 .313 .397 102 1.4
Isaac Paredes .251 .350 .509 138 4.3 .208 .299 .398 97 1.7
Yandy Díaz .300 .398 .456 143 4.2 .245 .340 .372 107 1.9
Jose Siri .253 .308 .437 107 3.1 .199 .249 .339 66 0.7
Christian Bethancourt .259 .303 .453 110 2.5 .210 .251 .351 69 0.7
Josh Lowe .254 .326 .427 113 2.9 .198 .276 .327 72 0.2
Taylor Walls .232 .322 .391 100 2.5 .188 .277 .305 66 0.5
Kyle Manzardo .277 .363 .494 140 2.5 .223 .310 .389 100 0.5
Curtis Mead .272 .339 .454 123 2.4 .220 .287 .355 83 0.4
Vidal Bruján .263 .328 .400 105 2.5 .218 .279 .322 71 0.3
Manuel Margot .272 .329 .413 109 2.3 .223 .279 .325 74 0.3
Osleivis Basabe .274 .322 .381 100 2.2 .225 .274 .305 67 0.1
Francisco Mejía .277 .320 .455 117 1.9 .222 .266 .357 77 0.4
David Peralta .260 .321 .433 113 2.0 .205 .272 .342 75 -0.2
René Pinto .244 .287 .417 97 1.9 .190 .237 .318 60 0.1
Luke Raley .254 .335 .436 115 1.6 .201 .286 .343 78 -0.1
Kameron Misner .220 .312 .354 89 1.8 .173 .261 .269 53 -0.5
Greg Jones .232 .299 .365 90 1.6 .176 .246 .268 50 -0.2
Jonathan Aranda .265 .340 .426 117 1.7 .217 .293 .339 83 -0.4
Mason Auer .246 .307 .396 98 1.7 .199 .260 .311 64 -0.7
Nick Dini .258 .320 .451 115 1.0 .204 .266 .338 71 -0.2
Alika Williams .244 .305 .343 85 1.1 .195 .259 .271 53 -0.6
Harold Ramírez .294 .335 .436 118 1.3 .236 .278 .348 78 -1.0
Tanner Murray .257 .300 .399 97 0.7 .208 .251 .304 59 -0.5
Dillon Paulson .238 .323 .392 101 0.7 .186 .266 .304 63 -0.8
Johan Lopez .224 .302 .349 84 0.8 .174 .248 .258 46 -0.8
Niko Hulsizer .221 .300 .422 101 0.9 .168 .246 .310 59 -1.1
Logan Driscoll .238 .307 .372 91 0.5 .179 .255 .277 52 -0.7
Ruben Cardenas .243 .300 .427 104 1.1 .192 .246 .332 65 -1.1
Grant Witherspoon .242 .296 .407 98 1.0 .193 .245 .315 60 -1.2
Ronny Simon .237 .281 .405 92 1.1 .189 .231 .316 55 -1.1
Garrett Hiott .221 .291 .320 74 0.4 .171 .243 .240 42 -0.6
Alexander Ovalles .243 .315 .382 97 0.7 .192 .263 .298 62 -1.1
Heriberto Hernandez .218 .305 .392 97 0.9 .168 .250 .295 58 -1.5
Austin Shenton .226 .307 .379 93 0.3 .178 .259 .292 58 -1.0
Tristan Gray .225 .280 .426 96 0.8 .175 .232 .319 56 -1.5
Abiezel Ramirez .229 .292 .378 89 0.5 .176 .240 .280 49 -1.0
Blake Hunt .228 .287 .355 81 0.6 .167 .228 .256 38 -1.2
Jordan Qsar .207 .291 .388 91 0.6 .154 .236 .280 49 -1.6
David Rodríguez .233 .291 .381 90 0.1 .182 .237 .295 53 -0.9
Ryan Boldt .231 .291 .377 88 0.2 .181 .237 .285 49 -1.3
Roberto Alvarez .249 .307 .319 79 0.0 .194 .257 .250 46 -1.1
Erik Ostberg .221 .291 .359 85 0.0 .173 .237 .273 48 -1.0
Evan Edwards .212 .305 .372 91 0.1 .160 .252 .266 50 -1.7
Diego Infante .250 .311 .393 98 0.4 .195 .254 .300 58 -2.0
Tristan Peters .247 .312 .377 94 0.1 .204 .266 .301 64 -1.9
Tyler Frank .211 .273 .273 57 -0.6 .161 .222 .203 24 -1.6
Alejandro Pie .173 .236 .228 33 -1.2 .120 .183 .146 -3 -2.1

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Shane McClanahan L 26 13 7 3.11 27 27 156.3 126 54 18 41 180
Pete Fairbanks R 29 4 1 3.12 41 0 40.3 32 14 4 14 55
Jason Adam R 31 3 2 3.18 62 0 56.7 41 20 6 20 69
Andrew Kittredge R 33 4 3 3.25 43 4 55.3 49 20 6 12 55
Tyler Glasnow R 29 3 2 3.30 10 10 57.3 44 21 8 19 73
Jeffrey Springs L 30 8 5 3.40 34 21 116.3 103 44 16 32 130
Drew Rasmussen R 27 9 6 3.49 31 26 129.0 113 50 14 36 120
Zach Eflin R 29 7 4 3.50 21 17 97.7 92 38 11 20 85
Garrett Cleavinger L 29 3 1 3.55 42 1 50.7 36 20 6 27 73
Kevin Kelly R 25 4 4 3.65 44 1 56.7 50 23 7 16 58
Colin Poche L 29 4 4 3.66 66 1 64.0 50 26 9 22 77
Ryan Thompson R 31 3 2 3.69 42 0 39.0 36 16 5 11 37
Trevor Brigden R 27 5 4 3.73 33 1 50.7 45 21 7 14 54
Jalen Beeks L 29 4 2 3.74 37 6 74.7 68 31 9 27 78
Cameron Leonard R 23 4 3 3.75 30 0 50.3 49 21 5 14 42
Matt Wisler R 30 4 2 3.77 42 4 45.3 40 19 6 15 47
Jeremy Walker R 28 3 3 3.78 42 2 66.7 65 28 7 16 51
Ryan Burr R 29 3 2 3.79 37 1 40.3 36 17 4 18 35
Mason Montgomery L 23 5 4 3.89 26 26 115.7 102 50 13 46 113
Yonny Chirinos R 29 5 3 3.92 19 13 82.7 77 36 11 21 63
Trevor Kelley R 29 4 3 3.93 48 0 52.7 46 23 6 21 52
Taj Bradley R 22 6 6 3.95 27 27 120.7 110 53 15 38 108
Colby White R 24 3 2 3.98 31 1 40.7 32 18 6 17 51
Shane Baz R 24 4 4 4.01 21 19 83.0 71 37 12 29 93
Shawn Armstrong R 32 2 3 4.06 49 2 57.7 54 26 8 20 63
Evan McKendry R 25 3 2 4.10 22 17 83.3 82 38 11 17 65
Brendan McKay L 27 4 3 4.11 19 16 72.3 69 33 11 23 74
Colten Brewer R 30 2 1 4.12 36 0 39.3 36 18 4 20 38
Angel Perdomo L 29 3 2 4.15 31 1 39.0 28 18 5 24 57
Dalton Moats L 28 1 1 4.18 41 1 47.3 46 22 7 15 43
Tyler Zombro R 28 1 1 4.19 28 2 38.7 40 18 5 8 26
Cooper Criswell R 26 5 5 4.24 19 15 85.0 85 40 11 20 71
Joe LaSorsa L 25 4 4 4.28 35 2 61.0 59 29 9 16 53
Jack Labosky R 26 3 3 4.31 27 7 64.7 67 31 10 13 49
Franklin Dacosta L 23 3 3 4.33 24 5 60.3 58 29 8 21 51
Luis Patiño R 23 5 6 4.33 23 22 87.3 80 42 12 33 78
Evan Reifert R 24 4 4 4.37 34 0 45.3 36 22 6 29 58
Chris Gau R 26 4 3 4.38 32 1 49.3 47 24 8 18 47
Josh Fleming L 27 8 8 4.39 23 12 96.3 103 47 12 24 66
Ralph Garza Jr. R 29 4 4 4.40 38 2 59.3 58 29 8 22 43
Justin Sterner R 26 4 4 4.41 35 0 49.0 42 24 6 24 52
Braden Bristo R 28 3 3 4.41 38 1 51.0 45 25 6 28 53
Calvin Faucher R 27 4 4 4.42 45 3 57.0 54 28 8 30 58
Michael Mercado R 24 5 6 4.53 23 19 91.3 88 46 13 37 79
John Doxakis L 24 5 6 4.55 24 22 99.0 96 50 12 41 79
Chris Muller R 27 3 4 4.59 42 1 51.0 46 26 8 29 56
Enmanuel Mejia R 24 3 4 4.60 38 1 47.0 43 24 5 28 41
Jacob Lopez L 25 2 2 4.60 11 10 45.0 43 23 8 16 45
Joel Peguero R 26 3 3 4.67 43 3 52.0 52 27 6 27 40
Nathan Wiles R 24 2 3 4.68 23 21 82.7 91 43 15 12 54
Andrew Gross R 26 2 3 4.73 33 2 51.3 53 27 7 18 35
Heath Hembree R 34 3 3 4.75 39 0 36.0 33 19 7 17 39
Miller Hogan R 26 3 3 4.78 19 7 52.7 55 28 9 13 39
Sean Hunley R 23 4 5 4.80 27 10 86.3 88 46 12 30 54
Dusten Knight R 32 3 4 4.80 39 3 54.3 52 29 8 27 54
Carlos Garcia R 24 3 5 4.88 33 2 55.3 52 30 8 30 49
Alan Strong R 26 3 4 4.94 24 7 62.0 67 34 11 19 47
Caleb Sampen R 26 3 3 5.03 15 11 59.0 66 33 10 19 34
Adrian De Horta R 28 2 2 5.06 18 7 37.3 35 21 6 24 38
David Hess R 29 4 6 5.09 26 8 69.0 72 39 14 23 59
Cristofer Ogando R 29 2 2 5.13 36 1 47.3 45 27 8 25 45
Elvin Rodriguez R 25 5 7 5.16 24 21 106.3 110 61 19 42 85
Hector Perez R 27 2 4 5.27 23 8 56.3 54 33 8 43 54
Zack Burdi R 28 1 1 5.40 20 1 23.3 22 14 4 14 24
Graeme Stinson L 25 2 3 5.54 32 1 52.0 50 32 8 27 45
Josh Roberson R 27 3 5 5.59 27 5 38.7 38 24 6 27 36
Seth Blair R 34 1 2 5.76 20 2 25.0 25 16 4 14 20
Ben Heller R 31 0 1 5.79 16 5 18.7 18 12 3 14 16

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Shane McClanahan 156.3 10.4 2.4 1.0 6.4% 28.3% .279 127 3.17 78 3.6
Pete Fairbanks 40.3 12.3 3.1 0.9 8.3% 32.7% .304 127 2.76 79 0.6
Jason Adam 56.7 11.0 3.2 1.0 8.7% 30.0% .263 125 3.42 80 0.9
Andrew Kittredge 55.3 8.9 2.0 1.0 5.3% 24.3% .287 122 3.33 82 1.0
Tyler Glasnow 57.3 11.5 3.0 1.3 8.0% 30.7% .273 120 3.41 83 1.2
Jeffrey Springs 116.3 10.1 2.5 1.2 6.7% 27.1% .291 116 3.56 86 2.2
Drew Rasmussen 129.0 8.4 2.5 1.0 6.7% 22.5% .277 114 3.61 88 2.3
Zach Eflin 97.7 7.8 1.8 1.0 5.0% 21.3% .287 113 3.61 88 1.7
Garrett Cleavinger 50.7 13.0 4.8 1.1 12.6% 34.0% .283 112 3.65 90 0.4
Kevin Kelly 56.7 9.2 2.5 1.1 6.8% 24.8% .285 108 3.82 92 0.4
Colin Poche 64.0 10.8 3.1 1.3 8.4% 29.3% .270 108 3.75 92 0.6
Ryan Thompson 39.0 8.5 2.5 1.2 6.8% 22.8% .287 107 3.92 93 0.3
Trevor Brigden 50.7 9.6 2.5 1.2 6.7% 26.0% .286 106 3.77 94 0.4
Jalen Beeks 74.7 9.4 3.3 1.1 8.5% 24.6% .295 106 3.92 94 0.9
Cameron Leonard 50.3 7.5 2.5 0.9 6.5% 19.5% .295 105 3.61 95 0.3
Matt Wisler 45.3 9.3 3.0 1.2 7.9% 24.9% .283 105 3.86 95 0.4
Jeremy Walker 66.7 6.9 2.2 0.9 5.8% 18.4% .287 105 3.89 95 0.5
Ryan Burr 40.3 7.8 4.0 0.9 10.3% 20.0% .278 104 4.12 96 0.2
Mason Montgomery 115.7 8.8 3.6 1.0 9.4% 23.1% .283 102 3.91 98 1.6
Yonny Chirinos 82.7 6.9 2.3 1.2 6.1% 18.3% .269 101 4.19 99 1.1
Trevor Kelley 52.7 8.9 3.6 1.0 9.4% 23.3% .282 101 4.03 99 0.2
Taj Bradley 120.7 8.1 2.8 1.1 7.5% 21.3% .279 100 4.05 100 1.6
Colby White 40.7 11.3 3.8 1.3 9.8% 29.5% .274 99 4.11 101 0.1
Shane Baz 83.0 10.1 3.1 1.3 8.3% 26.6% .281 99 4.02 101 1.0
Shawn Armstrong 57.7 9.8 3.1 1.2 8.2% 25.7% .303 98 3.97 102 0.2
Evan McKendry 83.3 7.0 1.8 1.2 4.9% 18.7% .284 97 4.17 104 1.0
Brendan McKay 72.3 9.2 2.9 1.4 7.5% 24.2% .296 96 4.12 104 0.8
Colten Brewer 39.3 8.7 4.6 0.9 11.4% 21.6% .294 96 4.22 104 0.0
Angel Perdomo 39.0 13.2 5.5 1.2 14.0% 33.3% .284 95 4.05 105 0.1
Dalton Moats 47.3 8.2 2.9 1.3 7.4% 21.1% .289 95 4.34 106 0.0
Tyler Zombro 38.7 6.1 1.9 1.2 4.9% 16.0% .287 95 4.42 106 0.1
Cooper Criswell 85.0 7.5 2.1 1.2 5.6% 19.7% .294 94 4.12 107 0.8
Joe LaSorsa 61.0 7.8 2.4 1.3 6.3% 20.8% .284 93 4.32 108 0.1
Jack Labosky 64.7 6.8 1.8 1.4 4.8% 18.2% .289 92 4.34 109 0.4
Franklin Dacosta 60.3 7.6 3.1 1.2 8.1% 19.7% .284 92 4.43 109 0.3
Luis Patiño 87.3 8.0 3.4 1.2 8.8% 20.7% .276 92 4.42 109 0.8
Evan Reifert 45.3 11.5 5.8 1.2 14.1% 28.3% .286 91 4.63 110 -0.2
Chris Gau 49.3 8.6 3.3 1.5 8.4% 22.0% .285 90 4.57 111 0.0
Josh Fleming 96.3 6.2 2.2 1.1 5.9% 16.1% .297 90 4.24 111 0.7
Ralph Garza Jr. 59.3 6.5 3.3 1.2 8.6% 16.9% .278 90 4.77 111 0.0
Justin Sterner 49.0 9.6 4.4 1.1 11.1% 24.1% .281 90 4.34 111 -0.1
Braden Bristo 51.0 9.4 4.9 1.1 12.4% 23.5% .287 90 4.43 111 -0.1
Calvin Faucher 57.0 9.2 4.7 1.3 11.7% 22.7% .297 90 4.57 112 0.0
Michael Mercado 91.3 7.8 3.6 1.3 9.3% 19.9% .285 87 4.65 114 0.6
John Doxakis 99.0 7.2 3.7 1.1 9.5% 18.4% .285 87 4.65 115 0.6
Chris Muller 51.0 9.9 5.1 1.4 12.4% 24.0% .288 86 4.76 116 -0.2
Enmanuel Mejia 47.0 7.9 5.4 1.0 12.9% 18.9% .281 86 4.71 116 -0.2
Jacob Lopez 45.0 9.0 3.2 1.6 8.3% 23.3% .287 86 4.80 116 0.2
Joel Peguero 52.0 6.9 4.7 1.0 11.4% 16.9% .291 85 4.85 118 -0.2
Nathan Wiles 82.7 5.9 1.3 1.6 3.4% 15.4% .289 85 4.71 118 0.4
Andrew Gross 51.3 6.1 3.2 1.2 8.0% 15.6% .286 84 4.91 119 -0.2
Heath Hembree 36.0 9.8 4.3 1.8 10.8% 24.8% .280 83 5.01 120 -0.3
Miller Hogan 52.7 6.7 2.2 1.5 5.8% 17.4% .286 83 4.92 121 0.0
Sean Hunley 86.3 5.6 3.1 1.3 8.1% 14.6% .277 83 4.93 121 0.1
Dusten Knight 54.3 8.9 4.5 1.3 11.1% 22.2% .295 82 4.63 121 -0.2
Carlos Garcia 55.3 8.0 4.9 1.3 12.2% 19.9% .280 81 5.16 123 -0.3
Alan Strong 62.0 6.8 2.8 1.6 7.1% 17.5% .295 80 4.96 125 -0.1
Caleb Sampen 59.0 5.2 2.9 1.5 7.3% 13.1% .289 79 5.27 127 0.0
Adrian De Horta 37.3 9.2 5.8 1.4 14.0% 22.1% .290 78 5.30 128 -0.1
David Hess 69.0 7.7 3.0 1.8 7.7% 19.7% .289 78 5.12 128 -0.2
Cristofer Ogando 47.3 8.6 4.8 1.5 11.6% 20.9% .282 77 5.35 130 -0.5
Elvin Rodriguez 106.3 7.2 3.6 1.6 9.0% 18.1% .287 77 5.29 130 -0.2
Hector Perez 56.3 8.6 6.9 1.3 16.0% 20.1% .293 75 5.53 133 -0.3
Zack Burdi 23.3 9.3 5.4 1.5 13.1% 22.4% .290 73 5.38 136 -0.3
Graeme Stinson 52.0 7.8 4.7 1.4 11.1% 18.5% .282 72 5.67 140 -0.8
Josh Roberson 38.7 8.4 6.3 1.4 14.8% 19.7% .294 71 5.64 141 -0.4
Seth Blair 25.0 7.2 5.0 1.4 12.3% 17.5% .284 69 6.15 145 -0.5
Ben Heller 18.7 7.7 6.8 1.4 15.6% 17.8% .278 68 6.26 146 -0.3

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Shane McClanahan CC Sabathia Johnny Antonelli Jon Matlack 4.8 2.4 2.62 3.59
Pete Fairbanks Darren Holmes Bob Reynolds Victor Capellan 1.2 0.1 2.17 4.57
Jason Adam Bruce Sutter Rich Garces Joe Nathan 1.5 0.0 2.45 4.46
Andrew Kittredge David Hernandez Gene Garber Donnie Moore 1.6 0.4 2.56 4.14
Tyler Glasnow Van Mungo Dinelson Lamet Kerry Wood 1.7 0.7 2.70 4.11
Jeffrey Springs Larry French John Candelaria Howie Pollet 3.3 1.1 2.71 4.25
Drew Rasmussen Andrew Cashner Germán Márquez Johnny Cueto 3.2 1.4 2.97 4.02
Zach Eflin Mario Gonzalez George Condrick Rick Wise 2.3 0.9 3.06 4.14
Garrett Cleavinger Dave LaRoche Sam Selman Ryan Buchter 1.1 -0.3 2.63 4.67
Kevin Kelly Ryan Kurosaki Chuck Everson Don Perigny 1.0 -0.2 2.91 4.63
Colin Poche Chuck Cary Eddie Guardado Steve Wilson 1.5 -0.4 2.86 4.67
Ryan Thompson Ron Taylor Bob Howry Cris Carpenter 0.7 -0.2 2.97 4.68
Trevor Brigden Luke Barker Casey Fien Sean Maloney 0.8 -0.2 3.06 4.68
Jalen Beeks Rigo Beltran Pablo Torrealba Steve Hamilton 1.6 0.1 2.96 4.75
Cameron Leonard Curt Brown Matt Wilhite Jeff Coleman 0.8 0.0 3.06 4.42
Matt Wisler Bob Howry Fernando Salas Donn Pall 0.9 -0.1 3.09 4.73
Jeremy Walker Dylan Floro Jerry Spradlin Rick White 1.1 0.0 3.16 4.40
Ryan Burr Mike Garman Pete Appleton Mike Fetters 0.6 -0.2 3.23 4.59
Mason Montgomery Marcelino Lopez Jerry Don Gleaton Pete Schourek 2.5 0.8 3.34 4.47
Yonny Chirinos Joe Bowman Jim Tobin Jim Hardin 1.8 0.5 3.35 4.48
Trevor Kelley Steve Montgomery Edwin Moreno Willie Fraser 0.6 -0.4 3.31 4.77
Taj Bradley Carl Pavano Ben Sheets Howard Farmer 2.5 0.7 3.40 4.64
Colby White Julian Vasquez Steve Chitren Darrin Chapin 0.6 -0.3 3.28 4.93
Shane Baz Jordan Zimmermann Dustin Nippert 니퍼트 Shannon Jones 1.9 0.2 3.25 4.81
Shawn Armstrong Johnny Gorsica Ryan Kussmaul Steve Shields 0.8 -0.4 3.25 5.02
Evan McKendry Gary Schlieve Dom DeSantis Ted Silva 1.7 0.3 3.48 4.87
Brendan McKay Roger Lincoln Mike Myers Andy High 1.5 0.1 3.44 5.01
Colten Brewer Ryan Speier Mike Dyer Juan Cerros 0.4 -0.4 3.53 4.82
Angel Perdomo Vic Darensbourg Nick Hagadone Norm Angelini 0.7 -0.5 3.18 5.45
Dalton Moats Jeff Urlaub Bryan Ward Brady Borner 0.5 -0.5 3.45 5.12
Tyler Zombro Gene Lanthorn Sean Jarrett Don Dennis 0.4 -0.2 3.69 4.81
Cooper Criswell Michel Laplante Jacob deGrom Luis de los Santos 1.3 0.1 3.74 4.95
Joe LaSorsa Chris Cotton Tyler Gilbert Larry Wimberly 0.7 -0.5 3.53 5.18
Jack Labosky Erik Bratlien Garrett Lee Darren Dreyer 0.9 -0.1 3.69 4.95
Franklin Dacosta Ryan Cullen Jim Patterson Jeff Holly 0.9 -0.2 3.72 5.09
Luis Patiño Mel Stottlemyre Reynaldo Lopez Chadd Blasko 1.4 0.1 3.82 4.89
Evan Reifert Mike Smith Joe Valentine Brian Bruney 0.3 -0.7 3.73 5.20
Chris Gau Don Stanford Paul Josephson Dustin Molleken 0.4 -0.5 3.73 5.11
Josh Fleming Darrell Rothrock Jake Brown Ramon Garcia 1.2 -0.1 3.99 5.03
Ralph Garza Jr. Anthony Young Brian Meyer Jim Todd 0.5 -0.4 3.83 5.16
Justin Sterner Dave Tobik Daniel Stange Ryan Kelly 0.4 -0.5 3.72 5.15
Braden Bristo Andy Cavazos Mike Roesler Ryan Garton 0.4 -0.6 3.73 5.30
Calvin Faucher Jason Shiell Ryan Garton Brett Evert 0.6 -0.5 3.69 5.07
Michael Mercado Carroll Sembera Dick Hall Kevin Mlodik 1.2 -0.1 4.09 5.20
John Doxakis Don Neufelder Eric Nolte Tim Berry 1.2 -0.1 4.11 5.13
Chris Muller Andy Cavazos David Patton Craig Molldrem 0.3 -0.7 3.88 5.44
Enmanuel Mejia Fabio Castillo 카스티요 Johan Yan Michael McCammon 0.1 -0.6 4.07 5.22
Jacob Lopez Gordon Riese Sid Akins Bryan Link 0.6 -0.2 3.91 5.33
Joel Peguero Charlie Walters Brett Merriman Hector Chavarria 0.1 -0.6 4.20 5.29
Nathan Wiles Grant Varnell Trevor Wamback Arno Kirchenwitz 1.0 -0.2 4.06 5.32
Andrew Gross Freddie Davis Jason Cole Mark Fuller 0.1 -0.6 4.16 5.27
Heath Hembree Wes Stock Bob Long Johnny Klippstein 0.1 -0.8 3.89 5.96
Miller Hogan Andy Wise Jose Monegro Scooter Hightower 0.4 -0.4 4.14 5.53
Sean Hunley Mike Shelton Carlton Smith Bill Kelly 0.7 -0.5 4.28 5.39
Dusten Knight Luther Hackman 해크먼 Jack Lutz Dave Madison 0.3 -0.8 4.09 5.78
Carlos Garcia Austin House Aguedo Vasquez John Kosenski 0.1 -0.8 4.33 5.50
Alan Strong Jess Turner Chris Coughlin Tom Mauch 0.4 -0.5 4.32 5.57
Caleb Sampen Jason Herman Eddie Cody Jim Brauer 0.3 -0.4 4.60 5.59
Adrian De Horta Dar Smith Charlie Sullivan Julio Solano 0.2 -0.6 4.38 6.06
David Hess Enrique Castillo Johnnie Scroggs Lew Krausse 0.4 -0.8 4.46 5.73
Cristofer Ogando Julio Solano Hal Kolstad Dave Wainhouse -0.1 -1.1 4.39 6.07
Elvin Rodriguez JT Brubaker Garrett Schilling Jon Harris 0.6 -0.9 4.63 5.73
Hector Perez Daniel Keller Steven Hensley Steve Martin 0.2 -0.9 4.59 6.07
Zack Burdi Gary Wex Mike Heinen Joseph Jeran 0.0 -0.5 4.57 6.41
Graeme Stinson Chris Siegfried Michael Boyle Efrain Nieves -0.3 -1.3 4.86 6.40
Josh Roberson Juan Ramos Jermy Rodriguez Raul Fernandez -0.1 -0.9 4.95 6.61
Seth Blair Jake Mooty Harry Fisher Stew Cliburn -0.2 -0.7 5.14 6.85
Ben Heller Jack Berly Bobby Reis Bill Wilson -0.1 -0.5 4.99 6.71

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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whiptydojoemember
1 year ago

Is that a misprint in the text for Manzardo’s age-season? He’s 22 now, did you mean Age-23?