2023 ZiPS Projections: Boston Red Sox

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the first team to go this year is the Boston Red Sox.

Batters

The Red Sox finished fourth in the American League in runs scored in 2022, but there’s no denying that removing Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez from the roster is a giant hit for the team to take. They may replace the missing value (if not all of it), but it’s a roster with a lot of work to do to be an elite unit. The projections see the offense as being driven mostly by Rafael Devers and Trevor Story, with Story getting quite the bullish projection. Having Triston Casas on the team would be helpful on average, and he has far more upside than either Eric Hosmer or Bobby Dalbec, but as of right now, the team will unfortunately be able to find quite a lot of playing time for the latter two, at least as the roster currently stands.

The floor on the offense is probably fairly high, so I wouldn’t expect them to be as bad as, say, the 2022 Detroit Tigers even if they trade Devers in the offseason, which isn’t an impossibility. ZiPS sees Boston having a good number of stopgappish players who are likely to be well above replacement but unlikely to push the team toward the pennant, players like Ceddanne Rafaela, the recently acquired Hoy Park, Jarren Duran, Connor Wong, and Enmanuel Valdez. I may be underselling Rafaela with this description because if his defense is as good as the scouting indicates, he becomes far more interesting. As a +3 defender in center, ZiPS sees him peaking as a bit above average for a few years, but if he turns out to be a Gold Glover, he hits enough that he could be Devon White.

I’m not exactly sure what the Red Sox will do this winter. Both a medium-sized investment in retooling the roster or some selling off is possible, and in either case, the lineup will look very different in April.

Pitchers

I wouldn’t call ZiPS “all in” on Brayan Bello, but as with Shane Bieber‘s 2018, the computer saw Bello’s debut in the majors as quite convincing despite the high ERA. ZiPS sees nothing in Bello’s record that deserved a .404 BABIP. In fact, given that position players used as pitchers historically have BABIPs in the .330 range, nobody ever really ought to be a .400 BABIP pitcher. I’m leaving Garrett Whitlock’s usage where it is right now, but ZiPS projects him with an ERA of 4.09 and an ERA+ in the 110 range as a starter, which is where he’s likely to end up. After just 11 starts in three seasons, the Red Sox would likely be overjoyed to get 16 starts from Chris Sale at the projected performance.

The team shouldn’t have much confidence in getting a ton of innings from Sale or James Paxton (six starts in three seasons). Some clarity on Tanner Houck’s role in the spring could provide needed reinforcements to the rotation. With so many questions about injuries and roles, the Red Sox really need to add a bit more certainty to the starting corps, more than Nick Pivetta possibly leading the team in innings pitched as a nondescript fourth starter. But as I’ve noted above, I’m legitimately unsure what direction the team is actually going to go this winter. The bullpen is serviceable but unexciting, though ZiPS remains the biggest fan of Joely Rodríguez around. What the bullpen is really missing is some heft on the top end. There is a veritable boatload of relievers projected with an ERA+ within five points of 100, which I’ll just call the Kaleb Ort Cloud.

The farm system is much improved, but as with the hitters, ZiPS just doesn’t see many pitchers in the system who could make a real difference when just talking about 2023. Eternal prospects like Connor Seabold still look more like depth than anything else, and the projections are unconvinced by Bryan Mata unless he can shake off another walk or two per nine.

The “start of the winter” ZiPS projections have the Red Sox at 82 wins, but that could deteriorate quickly, as most of the rest of the division is likely to be aggressive in the winter. This team has a lot of holes, and I’m not sure they’re going to fill most of them.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Hitters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Rafael Devers L 26 3B 659 596 103 173 42 2 33 112 54 125 4 3
Xander Bogaerts R 30 SS 622 550 87 161 37 0 20 83 60 115 6 1
Trevor Story R 30 SS 518 463 75 118 29 3 21 72 44 142 16 3
Enrique Hernández R 31 CF 465 413 61 104 28 2 12 57 41 91 1 1
Alex Verdugo L 27 LF 601 547 78 162 38 2 13 70 45 85 3 2
J.D. Martinez R 35 DH 559 500 73 136 34 2 20 72 51 136 0 1
Enmanuel Valdez L 24 2B 525 472 64 117 29 2 18 74 38 129 4 2
Ceddanne Rafaela R 22 CF 528 489 69 123 26 7 15 76 20 128 14 4
Hoy Park L 27 3B 447 386 55 93 17 4 9 53 50 112 10 3
Triston Casas L 23 1B 414 352 54 90 19 2 14 58 51 92 2 1
Connor Wong R 27 C 384 356 40 92 21 3 12 56 21 111 5 2
Jarren Duran L 26 CF 527 483 71 121 23 8 12 67 34 140 20 5
Reese McGuire L 28 C 292 266 29 71 17 1 4 23 17 57 1 1
Christian Arroyo R 28 2B 289 266 33 71 16 1 8 40 15 56 3 1
David Hamilton L 25 2B 493 451 59 106 18 7 8 53 36 122 32 6
Rob Refsnyder R 32 RF 337 294 42 77 18 1 9 44 33 88 2 1
Nick Sogard B 25 3B 434 382 49 95 17 2 5 47 38 88 9 3
Alex Binelas L 23 3B 463 409 55 92 22 1 16 59 38 151 3 1
Abraham Almonte B 34 LF 349 301 51 75 20 2 12 46 44 83 4 2
Niko Kavadas L 24 1B 503 418 51 91 22 0 20 86 65 180 0 1
Phillip Sikes R 24 RF 360 317 41 72 24 2 8 52 30 121 8 1
Ronaldo Hernández R 25 C 432 406 41 102 25 1 13 62 15 95 1 2
Eric Hosmer L 33 1B 482 441 48 126 26 1 12 66 35 85 2 2
Johan Mieses R 27 RF 331 293 38 68 14 1 13 52 28 93 3 1
Jose Peraza R 29 2B 298 276 31 73 17 1 5 36 12 41 3 2
Yu Chang R 27 2B 301 272 36 65 15 2 8 38 23 83 1 1
Ryan Fitzgerald L 29 3B 472 420 46 96 24 5 10 61 33 127 3 4
Stephen Scott L 26 C 390 338 45 77 21 1 8 45 39 91 3 1
Marcelo Mayer L 20 SS 415 366 47 83 23 1 11 53 40 132 7 1
Franchy Cordero L 28 1B 409 363 52 89 25 2 13 56 37 133 6 2
Tommy Pham R 35 LF 548 482 69 119 25 2 14 56 58 131 11 3
Max Ferguson L 23 SS 488 421 65 84 15 8 4 47 55 150 23 3
Nick Yorke R 21 2B 416 381 49 89 13 3 10 49 26 106 5 4
Devlin Granberg R 27 CF 372 336 44 86 19 3 6 55 22 75 4 1
Narciso Crook R 27 RF 401 365 44 86 20 4 12 64 27 129 7 3
Elih Marrero B 26 C 267 237 25 51 12 1 1 23 23 71 7 2
Bobby Dalbec R 28 1B 446 400 49 89 15 3 20 69 36 144 3 1
Nathan Hickey L 23 C 322 265 35 61 17 0 11 48 39 96 0 1
Grant Williams L 27 3B 226 214 25 55 7 2 0 19 7 34 5 2
Christin Stewart L 29 LF 413 362 44 84 17 2 16 60 40 130 3 1
Travis Shaw L 33 1B 306 270 27 59 13 0 10 40 31 85 0 1
Cam Cannon R 25 3B 327 305 31 72 19 0 3 38 15 62 3 2
Christian Koss R 25 SS 496 455 54 109 18 5 11 64 22 134 7 3
Jeter Downs R 24 SS 442 394 54 84 18 1 14 61 35 137 11 4
Jaylin Davis R 28 CF 417 370 53 81 16 2 12 55 36 137 4 3
Matthew Lugo R 22 SS 534 493 63 116 21 5 10 66 25 126 9 4
Wilyer Abreu L 24 CF 511 444 60 98 23 1 12 62 57 161 11 6
Deivy Grullón R 27 C 291 265 27 59 13 0 11 39 21 104 0 1
Corey Rosier L 23 LF 432 380 62 87 14 5 6 52 39 100 18 4
Kole Cottam R 26 C 297 268 25 61 17 2 4 40 19 99 0 2
Caleb Hamilton R 28 C 301 262 31 53 11 1 8 33 34 99 2 1
Tyler Dearden L 24 LF 392 343 42 78 16 1 10 49 35 121 0 1
Roberto Ramos L 28 1B 318 280 31 59 13 0 10 41 31 119 0 1
Wil Dalton R 25 LF 298 271 29 53 14 2 6 35 18 101 3 2
Joe Davis R 26 DH 353 329 35 78 13 0 12 49 13 81 0 1
Hudson Potts R 24 1B 376 346 36 76 20 1 11 48 20 119 1 1
Izzy Wilson L 25 RF 365 330 43 71 13 2 11 43 30 122 10 4
Pedro Castellanos R 25 1B 473 440 53 112 20 3 10 64 16 101 2 2
Tyler Esplin L 23 RF 247 224 25 47 11 2 1 18 19 75 1 1
Blaze Jordan R 20 3B 513 472 48 118 26 2 11 67 29 118 2 1
Tyler McDonough B 24 CF 473 437 46 88 17 4 6 50 30 167 9 3
Nick Decker L 23 LF 294 262 34 46 12 1 6 34 26 127 4 2
Alex Erro B 25 LF 278 256 29 59 9 1 2 24 17 67 2 2
Gilberto Jimenez B 22 RF 432 408 46 93 16 3 4 45 13 120 10 7

Hitters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Rafael Devers .290 .354 .534 135 .243 .320 -4 4.2 .373
Xander Bogaerts .293 .365 .469 124 .176 .340 -2 4.0 .359
Trevor Story .255 .325 .467 111 .212 .323 7 3.4 .337
Enrique Hernández .252 .325 .416 99 .165 .297 11 2.4 .321
Alex Verdugo .296 .349 .444 113 .148 .332 4 2.2 .341
J.D. Martinez .272 .342 .468 116 .196 .337 0 1.6 .345
Enmanuel Valdez .248 .307 .432 97 .184 .305 -1 1.3 .317
Ceddanne Rafaela .252 .288 .425 90 .174 .312 3 1.3 .305
Hoy Park .241 .330 .376 91 .135 .317 3 1.3 .310
Triston Casas .256 .352 .440 113 .185 .309 1 1.2 .343
Connor Wong .258 .304 .435 97 .177 .343 -2 1.2 .317
Jarren Duran .251 .308 .406 91 .155 .329 0 1.2 .309
Reese McGuire .267 .314 .383 88 .117 .327 3 1.0 .304
Christian Arroyo .267 .317 .425 98 .158 .312 2 1.0 .320
David Hamilton .235 .295 .359 76 .124 .305 4 1.0 .287
Rob Refsnyder .262 .343 .422 106 .160 .345 0 0.8 .334
Nick Sogard .249 .322 .343 80 .094 .311 3 0.8 .296
Alex Binelas .225 .291 .401 85 .176 .314 1 0.7 .300
Abraham Almonte .249 .345 .449 113 .199 .306 -4 0.7 .344
Niko Kavadas .218 .337 .414 102 .196 .326 -2 0.6 .330
Phillip Sikes .227 .304 .391 87 .164 .340 5 0.6 .302
Ronaldo Hernández .251 .284 .414 86 .163 .299 -4 0.6 .299
Eric Hosmer .286 .340 .431 107 .145 .331 -3 0.6 .332
Johan Mieses .232 .313 .420 96 .188 .294 1 0.5 .319
Jose Peraza .264 .307 .388 87 .123 .296 1 0.5 .302
Yu Chang .239 .303 .397 88 .158 .315 0 0.5 .304
Ryan Fitzgerald .229 .292 .381 80 .152 .304 3 0.5 .293
Stephen Scott .228 .311 .367 83 .139 .289 -4 0.4 .298
Marcelo Mayer .227 .305 .385 85 .158 .323 -6 0.4 .300
Franchy Cordero .245 .319 .433 101 .187 .350 -2 0.4 .324
Tommy Pham .247 .332 .394 96 .147 .312 -4 0.4 .319
Max Ferguson .200 .297 .302 63 .102 .300 1 0.3 .270
Nick Yorke .234 .286 .362 74 .129 .298 3 0.2 .282
Devlin Granberg .256 .319 .384 89 .128 .314 -6 0.2 .308
Narciso Crook .236 .302 .411 90 .175 .330 0 0.2 .309
Elih Marrero .215 .288 .287 57 .072 .303 3 0.2 .259
Bobby Dalbec .223 .297 .425 92 .203 .292 0 0.1 .311
Nathan Hickey .230 .335 .419 103 .189 .316 -14 0.1 .328
Grant Williams .257 .283 .308 60 .051 .306 5 0.1 .260
Christin Stewart .232 .318 .423 98 .191 .315 -5 0.1 .320
Travis Shaw .219 .305 .378 84 .159 .280 2 0.0 .299
Cam Cannon .236 .285 .328 66 .092 .288 3 0.0 .271
Christian Koss .240 .285 .374 76 .134 .316 -5 -0.1 .285
Jeter Downs .213 .287 .371 76 .157 .288 -6 -0.1 .288
Jaylin Davis .219 .297 .370 79 .151 .312 -4 -0.1 .292
Matthew Lugo .235 .279 .359 71 .124 .297 -3 -0.2 .278
Wilyer Abreu .221 .314 .358 82 .137 .317 -8 -0.2 .298
Deivy Grullón .223 .280 .396 80 .174 .320 -7 -0.2 .292
Corey Rosier .229 .307 .339 75 .111 .296 1 -0.2 .287
Kole Cottam .228 .292 .351 73 .123 .345 -5 -0.3 .282
Caleb Hamilton .202 .295 .344 72 .141 .290 -6 -0.3 .283
Tyler Dearden .227 .306 .367 81 .140 .321 -3 -0.6 .295
Roberto Ramos .211 .297 .364 78 .154 .325 -1 -0.6 .292
Wil Dalton .196 .258 .328 57 .133 .287 4 -0.6 .258
Joe Davis .237 .275 .386 76 .149 .280 0 -0.7 .286
Hudson Potts .220 .266 .379 72 .159 .301 2 -0.7 .278
Izzy Wilson .215 .284 .367 74 .152 .305 -2 -0.7 .285
Pedro Castellanos .255 .291 .382 80 .127 .310 -1 -0.8 .291
Tyler Esplin .210 .273 .290 53 .080 .311 2 -0.8 .252
Blaze Jordan .250 .299 .383 83 .133 .312 -15 -0.9 .296
Tyler McDonough .201 .259 .300 51 .098 .311 4 -0.9 .247
Nick Decker .176 .259 .298 51 .122 .310 1 -1.2 .249
Alex Erro .230 .283 .297 58 .066 .305 -4 -1.4 .259
Gilberto Jimenez .228 .258 .311 53 .083 .313 4 -1.6 .249

Hitters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Rafael Devers Kyle Seager Pete Ward Manny Machado
Xander Bogaerts Dave Bancroft Barry Larkin Lou Boudreau
Trevor Story Ian Desmond Dansby Swanson Howie Shanks
Enrique Hernández Barry Morgan Bill Virdon Jack Daugherty
Alex Verdugo Whitey Lockman Lloyd Waner Frank Torre
J.D. Martinez Joe Brovia Kevin Millar Derrek Lee
Enmanuel Valdez Tom Brookens Chase Utley Trace Coquillette
Ceddanne Rafaela Allen Bowers Brian Cole Walt Bond
Hoy Park Don Eaddy Dave Edler Daniel Muno
Triston Casas Ken Cornell Joe Cunningham Joe Lahoud
Connor Wong Angel Pena Chuck Goggin Chris Widger
Jarren Duran Kory DeHaan Ted Wilborn Damon Buford
Reese McGuire Zane Chavez Bob Barton John Sevcik
Christian Arroyo Lenn Sakata Jason Hardtke Julio Gotay
David Hamilton Chone Figgins Kevin Castleberry Chase d’Arnaud
Rob Refsnyder Billy McMillon Brian Myrow Jesus Guzman
Nick Sogard Bob Nandin Abraham Nunez Larry Huff
Alex Binelas Mike Pagliarulo Dwayne Peltier Clete Boyer
Abraham Almonte Dexter Fowler George Grantham Chad Huffman
Niko Kavadas Otto Velez Randy Bass Christin Stewart
Phillip Sikes Sil Campusano Garrett Whitley Jordan Schafer
Ronaldo Hernández Josh Phegley John Marzano Rod Barajas
Eric Hosmer Sean Casey Hal Morris James Loney
Johan Mieses Scott Pinoni Trey McCoy Ed Putman
Jose Peraza Chin-lung Hu Onix Concepcion Nate Samson
Yu Chang Hunter Jobes Peter Maris Chris Woodward
Ryan Fitzgerald Tom Heintzelman Chris Basak Brian Guinn
Stephen Scott Eric Christopherson Brad Gulden Richard Hance
Marcelo Mayer Kelly Johnson Tom Hayes Frank Franchi
Franchy Cordero Tim Pyznarski Brian Goodwin Mike Derrick
Tommy Pham George Burns Kosuke Fukudome Gary Matthews
Max Ferguson Anderson Machado Ronnie Retton Jason McDonald
Nick Yorke Blaine Prescott Dave Orndorff Doug Saunders
Devlin Granberg Jason Martin Cameron Perkins Ryan Harvey
Narciso Crook Alonzo Powell Mark Little Braulio Castillo
Elih Marrero Bob Kappesser Barry Winford John Massarelli
Bobby Dalbec Chad Rupp Jose Barrios John Rabb
Nathan Hickey Jim Pagliaroni Michael Ash Ian Rice
Grant Williams Rayner Laya Luis Gomez Wilson Soriano
Christin Stewart Duane Walker Chris Duncan Ty Gainey
Travis Shaw Chris Parmelee Eric Munson Mike Jorgensen
Cam Cannon Ed Lavene James Hatfield Nate Samson
Christian Koss Johnnie LeMaster Mariano Duncan Jamie Saylor
Jeter Downs Joseph Edgley Alex Kampouris Bill Barrett
Jaylin Davis Brett Eibner Dave Edwards William Thomas
Matthew Lugo Teuris Olivares Adeiny Hechavarria Danny Richar
Wilyer Abreu Pepe Mangual Derek Lee Ray McDavid
Deivy Grullón Creighton Gubanich David Ross Tom Egan
Corey Rosier Ryan Rogowski Chris Prieto Pin-Chieh Chen
Kole Cottam Don Bryant John Nester Matt Quatraro
Caleb Hamilton Don Werner Ron Staples John Stefero
Tyler Dearden Jerry Kushner Paul Hodgson Harry McCulla
Roberto Ramos Billy Martin Rod McCall Howard Prager
Wil Dalton Sergio Beltre Greg Sinatro Bret Berglund
Joe Davis Jim Campanis Mike Madrid Brad Bouras
Hudson Potts Walter Poole Alex Cabrera Chris Richburg
Izzy Wilson Josh Stowers Gregg Slape Rickey Holifield
Pedro Castellanos Robb Gorr Tom Brassil Patrick Cluney
Tyler Esplin Fernand Poirier Hunter Mense Jordan Keegan
Blaze Jordan Aurelio Rodriguez Mitch Nay Bobby Pfeil
Tyler McDonough Camilo Veras Ray Jackson Brian Thomas
Nick Decker Maury Ornest David Newhan Alex Barrett
Alex Erro Chris LePine Ryan Hamme Tim Binkoski
Gilberto Jimenez Manny Jose Josh Hart Danny Mars

Hitters – 20th/80th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Rafael Devers .315 .379 .589 154 5.6 .264 .328 .474 115 2.5
Xander Bogaerts .321 .391 .528 144 5.5 .268 .338 .427 105 2.6
Trevor Story .280 .351 .512 129 4.6 .229 .305 .412 92 2.2
Enrique Hernández .277 .352 .467 116 3.4 .226 .298 .361 76 1.2
Alex Verdugo .324 .380 .495 132 3.7 .263 .319 .398 93 0.7
J.D. Martinez .298 .370 .520 135 2.8 .244 .317 .416 96 0.3
Enmanuel Valdez .277 .334 .486 117 2.6 .224 .282 .382 79 0.2
Ceddanne Rafaela .276 .313 .477 109 2.5 .225 .264 .375 71 0.0
Hoy Park .269 .356 .431 109 2.3 .213 .300 .327 71 0.2
Triston Casas .286 .377 .495 133 2.2 .229 .327 .388 94 0.3
Connor Wong .291 .333 .505 122 2.4 .231 .274 .389 77 0.3
Jarren Duran .273 .333 .455 107 2.2 .221 .279 .357 71 -0.1
Reese McGuire .304 .352 .436 113 1.9 .237 .284 .329 66 0.3
Christian Arroyo .296 .342 .478 119 1.8 .238 .285 .371 78 0.3
David Hamilton .262 .324 .407 95 2.2 .211 .270 .315 58 -0.1
Rob Refsnyder .289 .372 .471 125 1.6 .232 .314 .369 86 0.0
Nick Sogard .273 .346 .381 95 1.5 .223 .295 .310 65 -0.1
Alex Binelas .253 .320 .460 105 1.8 .196 .265 .352 65 -0.4
Abraham Almonte .276 .372 .506 132 1.5 .223 .315 .391 91 -0.2
Niko Kavadas .252 .367 .482 125 2.0 .187 .308 .354 78 -0.7
Phillip Sikes .259 .332 .443 108 1.6 .199 .276 .337 66 -0.3
Ronaldo Hernández .278 .311 .476 107 1.7 .223 .259 .367 68 -0.4
Eric Hosmer .313 .367 .475 123 1.6 .253 .312 .382 86 -0.8
Johan Mieses .259 .342 .480 117 1.3 .204 .285 .367 77 -0.2
Jose Peraza .295 .338 .438 108 1.3 .232 .276 .338 66 -0.2
Yu Chang .274 .332 .461 111 1.4 .213 .273 .346 66 -0.2
Ryan Fitzgerald .258 .318 .433 100 1.6 .198 .263 .333 62 -0.7
Stephen Scott .260 .343 .426 109 1.6 .203 .284 .314 64 -0.4
Marcelo Mayer .254 .331 .446 108 1.5 .200 .278 .328 65 -0.6
Franchy Cordero .273 .345 .493 122 1.5 .218 .295 .381 82 -0.5
Tommy Pham .276 .360 .445 116 1.7 .218 .305 .343 76 -0.9
Max Ferguson .229 .327 .353 84 1.5 .166 .267 .253 42 -1.0
Nick Yorke .263 .313 .426 96 1.3 .205 .262 .318 56 -0.8
Devlin Granberg .280 .347 .438 109 1.0 .224 .289 .337 69 -0.7
Narciso Crook .264 .329 .466 112 1.3 .209 .273 .362 71 -0.7
Elih Marrero .243 .322 .335 77 0.8 .179 .256 .243 36 -0.5
Bobby Dalbec .252 .327 .484 116 1.4 .196 .274 .362 71 -1.0
Nathan Hickey .263 .371 .486 128 1.1 .195 .305 .354 76 -0.9
Grant Williams .289 .313 .351 80 0.7 .221 .247 .265 39 -0.5
Christin Stewart .257 .346 .480 119 1.1 .202 .291 .368 78 -1.0
Travis Shaw .247 .333 .440 106 0.8 .189 .271 .323 61 -0.9
Cam Cannon .268 .314 .381 87 0.8 .207 .257 .285 47 -0.8
Christian Koss .268 .311 .429 97 1.1 .215 .258 .327 59 -1.1
Jeter Downs .240 .315 .426 99 1.1 .185 .260 .314 58 -1.0
Jaylin Davis .247 .324 .424 99 0.9 .192 .270 .322 61 -1.0
Matthew Lugo .261 .304 .412 90 1.0 .213 .255 .317 55 -1.3
Wilyer Abreu .247 .338 .407 98 0.8 .194 .285 .309 61 -1.4
Deivy Grullón .257 .311 .453 103 0.6 .192 .246 .331 58 -1.0
Corey Rosier .255 .335 .393 94 0.7 .199 .279 .295 56 -1.3
Kole Cottam .259 .323 .407 93 0.4 .199 .265 .300 54 -1.0
Caleb Hamilton .234 .329 .406 97 0.6 .170 .263 .298 53 -1.0
Tyler Dearden .252 .333 .417 99 0.3 .200 .277 .319 62 -1.5
Roberto Ramos .239 .325 .426 99 0.2 .178 .266 .317 58 -1.4
Wil Dalton .226 .290 .378 78 0.1 .167 .228 .279 36 -1.4
Joe Davis .269 .307 .446 100 0.4 .208 .245 .338 57 -1.5
Hudson Potts .249 .293 .426 90 0.2 .193 .239 .325 51 -1.6
Izzy Wilson .246 .314 .421 96 0.3 .185 .252 .316 55 -1.6
Pedro Castellanos .277 .315 .435 99 0.3 .225 .264 .341 63 -1.8
Tyler Esplin .241 .305 .340 74 -0.2 .184 .247 .250 38 -1.3
Blaze Jordan .280 .326 .436 102 0.3 .226 .274 .336 66 -2.0
Tyler McDonough .230 .287 .346 70 0.2 .177 .238 .258 35 -1.8
Nick Decker .205 .287 .353 71 -0.4 .147 .229 .251 31 -1.9
Alex Erro .257 .311 .337 75 -0.8 .199 .254 .259 39 -2.0
Gilberto Jimenez .252 .279 .348 69 -0.7 .203 .233 .276 38 -2.4

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Garrett Whitlock R 27 5 3 3.44 35 8 83.7 76 32 9 19 86
Joely Rodríguez L 31 3 2 3.61 48 0 42.3 42 17 3 17 46
John Schreiber R 29 6 3 3.67 59 2 68.7 62 28 7 25 72
Nathan Eovaldi R 33 7 4 3.86 24 23 123.7 125 53 16 28 122
Josh Taylor L 30 2 1 3.94 52 2 45.7 44 20 5 18 49
Chris Sale L 34 5 4 3.95 16 16 82.0 75 36 11 24 101
Brayan Bello R 24 12 9 3.99 29 26 135.3 131 60 14 52 140
James Paxton L 34 10 8 4.05 25 25 126.7 121 57 18 46 141
Tanner Houck R 27 6 5 4.14 31 12 82.7 76 38 10 32 88
James Norwood R 29 2 2 4.19 40 0 43.0 40 20 5 22 51
Matt Barnes R 33 4 3 4.27 51 2 46.3 44 22 6 22 52
Brandon Walter L 26 5 5 4.28 22 13 82.0 82 39 11 23 76
Zack Kelly R 28 5 4 4.32 44 2 58.3 54 28 7 26 64
Matt Strahm L 31 5 4 4.37 42 5 59.7 59 29 9 15 63
Oddanier Mosqueda L 24 4 3 4.39 42 0 53.3 49 26 6 25 55
Kaleb Ort R 31 3 3 4.42 51 0 55.0 52 27 6 27 60
Ryan Fernandez R 25 3 2 4.43 30 0 42.7 45 21 7 13 39
Ryan Brasier R 35 2 1 4.50 53 0 48.0 49 24 7 13 47
Eduard Bazardo R 27 3 3 4.52 42 3 65.7 67 33 9 23 57
Taylor Broadway R 26 3 3 4.58 41 0 53.0 53 27 9 18 50
Brendan Nail L 27 2 3 4.62 36 0 39.0 38 20 5 19 39
Hirokazu Sawamura R 35 1 2 4.63 47 0 46.7 45 24 6 26 42
Chase Shugart R 26 5 6 4.64 34 10 77.7 87 40 10 23 54
Nick Pivetta R 30 9 9 4.64 30 28 151.3 148 78 23 60 149
Kutter Crawford R 27 5 5 4.72 23 16 89.7 92 47 14 33 89
Brian Van Belle R 26 6 6 4.72 24 21 116.3 135 61 18 23 75
Thomas Pannone L 29 5 6 4.73 21 14 83.7 90 44 11 25 65
Connor Seabold R 27 5 6 4.74 21 20 87.3 91 46 12 26 76
Michael Wacha R 31 5 5 4.75 23 21 110.0 118 58 19 33 94
Darwinzon Hernandez L 26 2 3 4.78 35 7 49.0 41 26 5 33 63
Andrew Politi R 27 4 4 4.81 37 6 63.7 63 34 9 30 63
Brian Keller R 29 4 5 4.81 26 17 86.0 84 46 11 48 82
Tyler Danish R 28 3 3 4.82 35 1 52.3 55 28 7 18 45
Chris Murphy L 25 7 8 4.86 25 24 122.3 127 66 17 56 104
Victor Santos R 22 7 8 4.86 26 22 127.7 137 69 18 37 88
Jeurys Familia R 33 3 3 4.89 46 0 42.3 45 23 5 21 41
Durbin Feltman R 26 4 4 4.91 39 0 47.7 48 26 7 22 45
Josh Winckowski R 25 7 9 4.92 24 23 115.3 127 63 17 40 84
Thad Ward R 26 2 1 4.94 15 15 54.7 54 30 9 23 54
Dan Altavilla R 30 2 3 4.94 25 0 23.7 21 13 3 14 27
Shane Drohan L 24 6 7 4.95 25 24 107.3 114 59 15 50 91
Bryan Mata R 24 5 6 4.96 22 19 85.3 84 47 12 44 85
Rich Hill L 43 6 7 4.97 24 24 114.0 120 63 21 37 99
Geoff Hartlieb R 29 3 4 4.97 36 2 50.7 53 28 6 25 46
Hansel Robles R 32 2 3 4.99 51 1 48.7 48 27 7 24 45
Kyle Hart L 30 6 7 5.00 22 14 86.3 95 48 12 39 63
Darin Gillies R 30 2 2 5.09 29 1 35.3 38 20 5 18 31
Franklin German R 25 4 5 5.17 33 8 62.7 65 36 10 29 57
Dylan Spacke R 25 3 3 5.22 29 4 58.7 64 34 9 29 46
Sterling Sharp R 28 4 4 5.22 21 17 81.0 92 47 11 37 56
Dominic LoBrutto L 27 1 2 5.23 25 0 31.0 36 18 5 11 22
Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 25 5 7 5.25 23 17 97.7 113 57 18 31 74
Rio Gomez L 28 1 2 5.30 25 1 35.7 38 21 6 16 32
Taylor Cole R 33 2 3 5.31 31 3 40.7 45 24 5 23 35
Jacob Wallace R 24 4 4 5.36 44 0 48.7 45 29 7 33 53
Brett Kennedy R 28 4 5 5.43 22 12 64.7 73 39 9 29 44
Michael Gettys R 27 2 3 5.45 37 0 39.7 48 24 6 17 20
Ryan Zeferjahn R 25 3 4 5.46 28 8 57.7 63 35 9 27 48
Chih-Jung Liu R 24 5 8 5.71 22 19 86.7 98 55 16 41 68
Brendan Cellucci L 25 2 4 5.72 40 8 50.3 50 32 7 40 51
Wyatt Olds R 23 5 7 5.79 24 23 98.0 98 63 12 61 87
Cody Scroggins R 26 1 2 6.18 38 0 43.7 46 30 7 31 37

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Garrett Whitlock 9.3 2.0 1.0 5.5% 25.1% .296 131 3.25 76 2.1
Joely Rodríguez 9.8 3.6 0.6 9.2% 24.9% .333 125 3.11 80 0.5
John Schreiber 9.4 3.3 0.9 8.6% 24.7% .299 123 3.60 81 1.3
Nathan Eovaldi 8.9 2.0 1.2 5.4% 23.5% .311 117 3.64 85 2.1
Josh Taylor 9.7 3.5 1.0 9.0% 24.6% .315 115 3.74 87 0.5
Chris Sale 11.1 2.6 1.2 7.0% 29.6% .314 114 3.57 87 1.4
Brayan Bello 9.3 3.5 0.9 8.8% 23.8% .313 113 3.67 88 2.2
James Paxton 10.0 3.3 1.3 8.4% 25.8% .308 112 3.91 90 1.9
Tanner Houck 9.6 3.5 1.1 9.0% 24.8% .299 109 4.12 92 1.4
James Norwood 10.7 4.6 1.0 11.4% 26.4% .318 108 3.90 93 0.3
Matt Barnes 10.1 4.3 1.2 10.6% 25.0% .311 106 4.21 95 0.6
Brandon Walter 8.3 2.5 1.2 6.6% 21.7% .302 105 4.14 95 1.2
Zack Kelly 9.9 4.0 1.1 10.2% 25.0% .305 105 4.06 96 0.4
Matt Strahm 9.5 2.3 1.4 6.0% 25.1% .309 103 3.96 97 0.7
Oddanier Mosqueda 9.3 4.2 1.0 10.8% 23.7% .299 103 4.24 97 0.2
Kaleb Ort 9.8 4.4 1.0 11.2% 24.8% .313 102 4.08 98 0.3
Ryan Fernandez 8.2 2.7 1.5 7.1% 21.2% .306 102 4.44 98 0.2
Ryan Brasier 8.8 2.4 1.3 6.4% 23.0% .309 100 4.03 100 0.2
Eduard Bazardo 7.8 3.2 1.2 8.0% 19.9% .301 100 4.39 100 0.4
Taylor Broadway 8.5 3.1 1.5 7.6% 21.2% .295 98 4.49 102 0.1
Brendan Nail 9.0 4.4 1.2 11.0% 22.5% .306 98 4.44 102 0.1
Hirokazu Sawamura 8.1 5.0 1.2 12.1% 19.5% .291 98 4.76 102 0.1
Chase Shugart 6.3 2.7 1.2 6.7% 15.8% .308 97 4.48 103 0.7
Nick Pivetta 8.9 3.6 1.4 9.1% 22.6% .298 97 4.45 103 1.6
Kutter Crawford 8.9 3.3 1.4 8.4% 22.8% .310 96 4.44 104 0.8
Brian Van Belle 5.8 1.8 1.4 4.5% 14.8% .306 96 4.55 105 1.2
Thomas Pannone 7.0 2.7 1.2 6.9% 17.9% .305 95 4.31 105 0.9
Connor Seabold 7.8 2.7 1.2 6.9% 20.1% .305 95 4.40 105 0.9
Michael Wacha 7.7 2.7 1.6 6.9% 19.7% .303 95 4.67 105 1.0
Darwinzon Hernandez 11.6 6.1 0.9 14.8% 28.3% .308 95 4.36 106 0.4
Andrew Politi 8.9 4.2 1.3 10.6% 22.2% .303 94 4.61 106 0.4
Brian Keller 8.6 5.0 1.2 12.4% 21.2% .300 94 4.76 107 0.8
Tyler Danish 7.7 3.1 1.2 7.9% 19.7% .308 94 4.38 107 0.1
Chris Murphy 7.7 4.1 1.3 10.3% 19.2% .302 93 4.80 108 1.2
Victor Santos 6.2 2.6 1.3 6.8% 16.1% .295 93 4.62 108 1.1
Jeurys Familia 8.7 4.5 1.1 10.9% 21.4% .325 92 4.38 108 0.0
Durbin Feltman 8.5 4.2 1.3 10.2% 20.8% .301 92 4.62 109 0.0
Josh Winckowski 6.6 3.1 1.3 7.9% 16.6% .303 92 4.76 109 1.0
Thad Ward 8.9 3.8 1.5 9.5% 22.4% .298 91 4.85 109 0.4
Dan Altavilla 10.3 5.3 1.1 13.1% 25.2% .295 91 4.55 109 0.0
Shane Drohan 7.6 4.2 1.3 10.3% 18.8% .307 91 4.76 110 0.9
Bryan Mata 9.0 4.6 1.3 11.5% 22.1% .304 91 4.82 110 0.7
Rich Hill 7.8 2.9 1.7 7.5% 20.1% .296 91 5.00 110 0.9
Geoff Hartlieb 8.2 4.4 1.1 10.7% 19.7% .315 91 4.53 110 0.1
Hansel Robles 8.3 4.4 1.3 11.1% 20.7% .295 90 4.78 111 0.0
Kyle Hart 6.6 4.1 1.3 10.1% 16.2% .305 90 5.10 111 0.7
Darin Gillies 7.9 4.6 1.3 11.1% 19.1% .314 89 4.85 113 -0.1
Franklin German 8.2 4.2 1.4 10.2% 20.1% .302 87 4.99 114 0.2
Dylan Spacke 7.1 4.4 1.4 10.9% 17.2% .304 87 5.32 116 0.0
Sterling Sharp 6.2 4.1 1.2 9.9% 15.1% .309 86 5.05 116 0.4
Dominic LoBrutto 6.4 3.2 1.5 7.9% 15.7% .310 86 5.09 116 -0.1
Yusniel Padron-Artiles 6.8 2.9 1.7 7.2% 17.2% .309 86 5.11 116 0.5
Rio Gomez 8.1 4.0 1.5 9.9% 19.9% .308 85 5.06 117 -0.1
Taylor Cole 7.7 5.1 1.1 12.2% 18.5% .323 85 4.87 118 0.0
Jacob Wallace 9.8 6.1 1.3 14.5% 23.2% .297 84 5.25 119 -0.2
Brett Kennedy 6.1 4.0 1.3 9.8% 14.9% .306 83 5.18 120 0.2
Michael Gettys 4.5 3.9 1.4 9.3% 10.9% .304 83 5.55 121 -0.3
Ryan Zeferjahn 7.5 4.2 1.4 10.2% 18.1% .309 83 5.18 121 0.0
Chih-Jung Liu 7.1 4.3 1.7 10.3% 17.0% .307 79 5.51 126 0.1
Brendan Cellucci 9.1 7.2 1.3 16.3% 20.7% .307 79 5.56 127 -0.2
Wyatt Olds 8.0 5.6 1.1 13.3% 19.0% .301 78 5.57 128 0.0
Cody Scroggins 7.6 6.4 1.4 14.8% 17.6% .300 73 6.08 137 -0.6

Pitchers – Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Garrett Whitlock John Brebbia Matt Capps Chris Devenski 2.7 1.2 2.81 4.37
Joely Rodríguez Phil Coke Taylor Phillips Dennis Kinney 0.8 0.0 2.92 4.46
John Schreiber Todd Frohwirth Manny Sarmiento Mike Perez 1.9 0.5 2.92 4.70
Nathan Eovaldi Larry Jansen Carlos Carrasco Shane Reynolds 2.8 1.3 3.30 4.45
Josh Taylor Ken Dayley Gary Lucas Darold Knowles 1.0 0.0 3.00 5.24
Chris Sale Teddy Higuera John Candelaria Preacher Roe 2.0 0.6 3.22 5.04
Brayan Bello Dean Chance Freddy Garcia Floyd Wooldridge 2.9 1.2 3.54 4.71
James Paxton Jerry Koosman Chuck Finley Mark Langston 2.7 0.8 3.46 4.84
Tanner Houck Jeff Robinson Hank Behrman Wes Stock 2.0 0.6 3.47 5.10
James Norwood David Holdridge Jason Boyd Julio Parra 0.6 -0.1 3.39 5.17
Matt Barnes Mike Williams Jeff Parrett Curt Leskanic 1.1 -0.1 3.41 5.75
Brandon Walter Larry Gura Joe Crawford Pat Underwood 1.7 0.5 3.64 5.00
Zack Kelly George Culver Tony Menendez Roy Thomas 1.0 -0.2 3.60 5.24
Matt Strahm Dan Schatzeder Tom Hilgendorf Glen Perkins 1.4 0.1 3.36 5.41
Oddanier Mosqueda Don Eddy Efrain Valdez Tim Lollar 0.7 -0.2 3.69 5.17
Kaleb Ort Ted Power Paul Wilmet Clint Davis 0.8 -0.2 3.58 5.19
Ryan Fernandez Jeff Taglienti Bobby Korecky Jerome Gamble 0.5 -0.2 3.64 5.25
Ryan Brasier Matt Whiteside Jerry Spradlin Earl Harrist 0.6 -0.3 3.62 5.64
Eduard Bazardo Gene Garber Jeff Darwin C.B. Beringer 0.9 -0.1 3.84 5.41
Taylor Broadway Kyle Martin Dan Chergey Jordan Conley 0.6 -0.3 3.83 5.30
Brendan Nail Felix Heredia Royce Ring John Morris 0.5 -0.2 3.81 5.50
Hirokazu Sawamura Jose Valverde Santiago Casilla Turk Wendell 0.5 -0.4 3.69 5.90
Chase Shugart Jim Tracy Chad Jenkins Mike Tucker 1.2 0.3 4.08 5.21
Nick Pivetta Kevin Gross Dave Stewart Steve Renko 2.5 0.4 4.12 5.43
Kutter Crawford Glen Cook Sergio Valdez Ryan Sheldon 1.5 0.2 4.09 5.45
Brian Van Belle Joe Gunkel Josh Geer Jose Lizondro 1.9 0.6 4.13 5.30
Thomas Pannone Paul Kilgus Brian Duensing David Huff 1.3 0.2 4.22 5.51
Connor Seabold Rod Nichols Grady Wood Mike Brown 1.5 0.2 4.05 5.52
Michael Wacha Pat Dobson Jason Hammel Marty Pattin 1.7 0.1 4.15 5.51
Darwinzon Hernandez Jace Fry Ryan Buchter Danny Coulombe 0.9 -0.2 3.93 5.79
Andrew Politi Jason Arnold Kane Davis Joey Williamson 0.9 -0.1 4.20 5.66
Brian Keller Sam Deduno Fred Holdsworth Bob Long 1.5 0.2 4.17 5.51
Tyler Danish Justin Pope Brandon Agamennone Brian Smith 0.5 -0.2 4.08 5.61
Chris Murphy Shawn Morimando Eric Jokisch Adam Conley 2.0 0.3 4.24 5.49
Victor Santos Rick Porcello Peter Lambert Ariel Jurado 1.9 0.3 4.29 5.57
Jeurys Familia Victor Marte Javy Guerra Jason Bullard 0.3 -0.4 4.22 5.79
Durbin Feltman Gene Stechschulte Seth Garrison John Lamb 0.2 -0.4 4.27 5.53
Josh Winckowski Shaun Anderson Braden Shipley Cody Anderson 1.6 0.2 4.43 5.54
Thad Ward Monty Stratton Mel Stottlemyre Steve Taylor 0.8 0.0 4.33 5.69
Dan Altavilla George Smith Jesse Hickman Reggie Harris 0.2 -0.3 4.06 6.37
Shane Drohan Jim Shellenback Dave Owen Jim Crowell 1.6 0.2 4.42 5.61
Bryan Mata Scott Scudder Tommy Moore Ben Rivera 1.3 0.0 4.31 5.63
Rich Hill CC Sabathia Fritz Ostermueller George Mogridge 1.5 0.1 4.30 5.98
Geoff Hartlieb Josh Rupe Jorge Rondon Robert Stickels 0.5 -0.4 4.25 5.85
Hansel Robles Jesus Colome Dalier Hinojosa Dyar Miller 0.5 -0.6 4.16 6.25
Kyle Hart Bob Buchanan Josh Muecke Jonathon Rouwenhorst 1.1 0.0 4.54 5.75
Darin Gillies Steve Mintz Erik Bennett Jon Hunton 0.2 -0.4 4.37 6.02
Franklin German Dave Stevens Miguel Celestino Byron Ballard 0.6 -0.3 4.61 5.83
Dylan Spacke Ryan Arrowood Tom Lovrich Jose Paredes 0.4 -0.4 4.71 5.87
Sterling Sharp Murphy Smith Tom Edens Brooks Brown 0.9 -0.1 4.80 5.94
Dominic LoBrutto Robert Butkus Peter Durkovic Jeff Huber 0.1 -0.3 4.58 5.87
Yusniel Padron-Artiles Scott Lawrence Chuck Stanhope Ryan Douglass 1.2 -0.1 4.66 5.93
Rio Gomez Fernando Figueroa Pete Cappadona Mike Gray 0.2 -0.4 4.59 6.14
Taylor Cole Brian Williams Hal Reniff Oswaldo Verdugo 0.3 -0.4 4.49 6.45
Jacob Wallace Frank Snook Barry Jones Andres Berumen 0.2 -0.7 4.64 6.33
Brett Kennedy Joel Navarro Guadalupe Perez Douglas Gentry 0.6 -0.3 4.94 6.09
Michael Gettys Keith Spicer Rafael Rodriguez Guillermo Carrillo -0.1 -0.5 4.99 6.02
Ryan Zeferjahn Quinn Marsh Amalio Carreno Wander Suero 0.4 -0.3 4.85 6.15
Chih-Jung Liu Richie Leblanc Pete Walker James Avery 0.5 -0.4 5.29 6.38
Brendan Cellucci Andrew Faulkner Kelton Russell Arthur Siefert 0.3 -0.7 5.00 6.77
Wyatt Olds Dave Masters Larry Lamonde Matt Maysey 0.5 -0.8 5.35 6.64
Cody Scroggins Jonathan Garcia Felix Villegas Nefi Ogando -0.3 -1.0 5.53 7.19

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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scotth855member
2 months ago

Great way to start a Monday! Looking forward to the rest of the projections, Dan!