2023 ZiPS Projections: Boston Red Sox

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the first team to go this year is the Boston Red Sox.

Batters

The Red Sox finished fourth in the American League in runs scored in 2022, but there’s no denying that removing Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez from the roster is a giant hit for the team to take. They may replace the missing value (if not all of it), but it’s a roster with a lot of work to do to be an elite unit. The projections see the offense as being driven mostly by Rafael Devers and Trevor Story, with Story getting quite the bullish projection. Having Triston Casas on the team would be helpful on average, and he has far more upside than either Eric Hosmer or Bobby Dalbec, but as of right now, the team will unfortunately be able to find quite a lot of playing time for the latter two, at least as the roster currently stands.

The floor on the offense is probably fairly high, so I wouldn’t expect them to be as bad as, say, the 2022 Detroit Tigers even if they trade Devers in the offseason, which isn’t an impossibility. ZiPS sees Boston having a good number of stopgappish players who are likely to be well above replacement but unlikely to push the team toward the pennant, players like Ceddanne Rafaela, the recently acquired Hoy Park, Jarren Duran, Connor Wong, and Enmanuel Valdez. I may be underselling Rafaela with this description because if his defense is as good as the scouting indicates, he becomes far more interesting. As a +3 defender in center, ZiPS sees him peaking as a bit above average for a few years, but if he turns out to be a Gold Glover, he hits enough that he could be Devon White.

I’m not exactly sure what the Red Sox will do this winter. Both a medium-sized investment in retooling the roster or some selling off is possible, and in either case, the lineup will look very different in April.

Pitchers

I wouldn’t call ZiPS “all in” on Brayan Bello, but as with Shane Bieber‘s 2018, the computer saw Bello’s debut in the majors as quite convincing despite the high ERA. ZiPS sees nothing in Bello’s record that deserved a .404 BABIP. In fact, given that position players used as pitchers historically have BABIPs in the .330 range, nobody ever really ought to be a .400 BABIP pitcher. I’m leaving Garrett Whitlock’s usage where it is right now, but ZiPS projects him with an ERA of 4.09 and an ERA+ in the 110 range as a starter, which is where he’s likely to end up. After just 11 starts in three seasons, the Red Sox would likely be overjoyed to get 16 starts from Chris Sale at the projected performance.

The team shouldn’t have much confidence in getting a ton of innings from Sale or James Paxton (six starts in three seasons). Some clarity on Tanner Houck’s role in the spring could provide needed reinforcements to the rotation. With so many questions about injuries and roles, the Red Sox really need to add a bit more certainty to the starting corps, more than Nick Pivetta possibly leading the team in innings pitched as a nondescript fourth starter. But as I’ve noted above, I’m legitimately unsure what direction the team is actually going to go this winter. The bullpen is serviceable but unexciting, though ZiPS remains the biggest fan of Joely Rodríguez around. What the bullpen is really missing is some heft on the top end. There is a veritable boatload of relievers projected with an ERA+ within five points of 100, which I’ll just call the Kaleb Ort Cloud.

The farm system is much improved, but as with the hitters, ZiPS just doesn’t see many pitchers in the system who could make a real difference when just talking about 2023. Eternal prospects like Connor Seabold still look more like depth than anything else, and the projections are unconvinced by Bryan Mata unless he can shake off another walk or two per nine.

The “start of the winter” ZiPS projections have the Red Sox at 82 wins, but that could deteriorate quickly, as most of the rest of the division is likely to be aggressive in the winter. This team has a lot of holes, and I’m not sure they’re going to fill most of them.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.