2023 ZiPS Projections: San Diego Padres

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and today’s team is the San Diego Padres.

Batters

When you look at the Padres’ depth charts, there’s a kind of clarity when trying to decide what the team needs to do this winter. The strengths of the offense are obvious: Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and a healthy Fernando Tatis Jr. enter any season as top-notch MVP contenders. And unlike a certain seraphim-themed organization I won’t name with a few mega-stars at the top, there isn’t a huge drop-off to the next tier, whether it’s Jake Cronenworth, Ha-Seong Kim, or Trent Grisham after you’ve threatened him with torture if he tries to bunt for a hit at an awkward moment.

The team’s needs here are also quite obvious; I can’t imagine the Padres actually enter the season with Taylor Kohlwey and José Azocar splitting playing time in left field. The problem is, I also couldn’t imagine Nomar Mazara actually getting 41 starts in 2022, but that’s just what he did.

San Diego would also benefit from some figuring out what to do about Tatis’ position long-term. Right now, we have him splitting time in several places, but I think that the Padres are best served by figuring out whether Cronenworth or Kim are the answer at second, determine where they can put Tatis, and then find a full-time upgrade over Eguy Rosario or Brandon Dixon, whom I see more as complementary talent.

Another thing that is obvious here is that the Padres do need to spend some time this winter fattening up their organizational depth. The high minors are fairly empty at the moment — a combination of graduating talent, traded talent, and a bunch of minor league veterans now in free agency or in other organizations. Most of the players here who look like “break in case of fire” emergency options like C.J. Hinojosa or Domingo Leyba are no longer in the organization. This isn’t necessarily an expensive thing to do, either, and adding a left fielder and a couple of pitchers wouldn’t hinder this.

Pitchers

Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Blake Snell are an excellent triad, but the Padres, as of right now, do not have the organizational rotation depth behind them that they’ve had the last couple of years. I like the re-signing of Nick Martinez, but I doubt many would dispute my opinion that he’s hardly a sure thing. The Padres are going to have to fight it out in the division with the team that had the best record in baseball, so I don’t see this as a battle-ready starting five. The fact that Julio Teheran, signed to a minor league contract about a week ago, ranks this highly in our depth chart is what we would call an inauspicious sign.

I think the hole in left field needs to be fixed adequately, but even if the Padres don’t, they’ve got to score runs; adding another starting pitcher ought to be a team priority, too. You’d love to see them go after Carlos Rodón, but even if San Diego is getting to its preferred payroll limit and he’s out of its price range, José Quintana or a reunion with Corey Kluber would be productive on a team that will likely have pretty good infield defense.

ZiPS isn’t as high on the bullpen as Steamer is. Josh Hader and Robert Suarez, along with Luis García, project to have most of the value there, but there’s a significant step down after the front-end of the bullpen. Given expensive needs in the rotation and left field, I can’t imagine San Diego is extremely aggressive here, so I expect more Rays-style bargain-searching rather than the splashier type of moves made in recent years. Relievers such as (but not necessarily exactly) Trevor May or Tommy Kahnle are more likely pickups than any of the best few options available.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Juan Soto L 24 RF 659 514 106 140 24 2 29 83 139 101 9 3
Manny Machado R 30 3B 631 561 87 149 28 1 28 95 62 119 8 2
Fernando Tatis Jr. R 24 SS 430 379 76 101 18 2 31 73 44 116 19 4
Jake Cronenworth L 29 2B 632 552 88 141 31 5 17 80 62 109 4 2
Ha-Seong Kim R 27 SS 503 447 50 107 24 3 12 54 43 93 10 2
Trent Grisham L 26 CF 549 474 67 105 22 3 18 63 62 137 10 3
Austin Nola R 33 C 357 315 38 82 16 1 6 43 32 58 2 1
Josh Bell B 30 1B 562 485 63 118 21 1 16 67 68 117 1 1
Domingo Leyba B 27 2B 447 405 51 95 19 2 11 51 35 82 3 1
C.J. Hinojosa R 28 SS 479 442 51 109 24 1 9 54 30 94 3 2
Ripken Reyes B 26 2B 380 319 46 72 13 3 2 57 28 65 5 3
Eguy Rosario R 23 2B 552 496 66 116 26 3 13 69 44 132 14 8
Connor Hollis R 28 3B 480 428 62 101 20 3 6 56 40 110 8 5
Brett Sullivan L 29 C 401 367 47 87 19 3 7 41 27 64 4 2
Wil Myers R 32 RF 408 368 44 89 19 1 14 52 37 121 5 3
Jurickson Profar B 30 LF 561 489 68 114 26 2 13 53 61 88 7 2
Luis Campusano R 24 C 427 389 45 92 16 1 12 52 31 88 0 1
Brandon Drury R 30 3B 479 441 55 101 22 1 16 57 31 111 1 2
Matthew Batten R 28 SS 429 387 47 87 12 1 6 41 37 112 12 4
Luis Liberato L 27 CF 391 349 49 77 15 2 10 43 33 112 4 1
Aderlin Rodríguez R 31 1B 348 319 39 75 16 1 14 55 21 94 0 1
Brandon Dixon R 31 1B 302 277 35 65 12 2 14 43 20 93 4 1
Korry Howell R 24 CF 336 298 44 57 10 3 7 43 27 125 10 3
Brandon Valenzuela B 22 C 436 389 35 78 13 1 7 40 43 123 0 1
Nomar Mazara L 28 RF 347 314 39 74 15 1 8 41 27 83 1 1
Jorge Alfaro R 30 C 334 313 28 69 12 0 9 41 14 112 3 1
Joshua Mears R 22 CF 363 329 37 57 11 1 17 58 25 171 3 2
Kyle Martin L 30 1B 303 268 38 56 14 0 11 37 30 89 1 1
Thomas Milone L 28 CF 422 376 44 78 12 4 6 42 38 136 9 5
Chandler Seagle R 27 C 254 229 25 41 11 0 2 23 13 82 1 1
Taylor Kohlwey L 28 LF 507 450 54 107 18 2 6 55 46 109 6 3
Connor Kaiser R 26 SS 209 188 27 36 7 0 5 19 17 70 3 1
Matt Beaty L 30 RF 292 261 36 63 10 1 5 39 21 55 2 1
José Azocar R 27 CF 467 436 47 103 16 4 6 42 24 118 12 7
Juan Zabala R 23 C 267 242 23 52 6 1 3 26 20 64 7 3
Tirso Ornelas L 23 LF 506 464 50 103 23 2 6 50 35 117 3 1
Webster Rivas R 32 C 274 243 25 50 9 1 2 22 28 68 0 1
Ethan Skender R 26 2B 260 237 26 50 8 2 2 30 14 70 4 2
Cole Cummings L 25 1B 398 348 40 65 10 2 9 48 37 134 3 1
Kelvin Melean R 24 2B 337 306 28 64 12 1 3 32 22 78 2 3
Agustin Ruiz L 23 RF 429 389 48 78 15 1 11 54 29 131 2 1
Lucas Dunn R 24 3B 487 431 49 78 15 3 5 49 45 170 7 4
Grant Little R 25 LF 232 208 21 42 8 0 0 22 17 56 5 3
Jorge Oña R 26 RF 264 241 25 41 7 0 6 33 16 115 0 1
Michael Cantu R 27 DH 136 125 8 19 2 0 1 8 11 58 0 1
Matthew Acosta L 25 CF 368 332 37 65 11 2 5 32 28 106 6 1
Reinaldo Ilarraza B 24 2B 326 290 31 50 5 2 2 23 28 114 12 2
Juan Fernandez R 24 1B 415 381 31 82 13 2 4 42 25 89 4 1
Olivier Basabe R 25 3B 335 307 30 60 8 1 4 30 22 84 3 2
Jonny Homza R 24 DH 318 288 28 48 13 1 2 32 22 121 3 2

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Juan Soto 659 .272 .428 .496 161 .224 .289 -2 6.6 .396
Manny Machado 631 .266 .338 .469 125 .203 .292 2 4.8 .342
Fernando Tatis Jr. 430 .266 .347 .570 154 .303 .302 -5 4.7 .383
Jake Cronenworth 632 .255 .341 .422 115 .167 .291 5 4.5 .331
Ha-Seong Kim 503 .239 .312 .387 97 .148 .278 8 3.4 .306
Trent Grisham 549 .222 .317 .395 100 .173 .273 8 3.4 .311
Austin Nola 357 .260 .336 .375 101 .114 .303 0 2.1 .313
Josh Bell 562 .243 .340 .390 106 .146 .290 1 1.8 .320
Domingo Leyba 447 .235 .298 .373 89 .138 .269 4 1.7 .292
C.J. Hinojosa 479 .247 .297 .367 87 .120 .295 -1 1.4 .288
Ripken Reyes 380 .226 .331 .304 82 .078 .278 3 1.4 .291
Eguy Rosario 552 .234 .301 .377 91 .143 .293 -3 1.4 .296
Connor Hollis 480 .236 .313 .339 85 .103 .304 1 1.3 .290
Brett Sullivan 401 .237 .289 .362 83 .125 .270 0 1.3 .283
Wil Myers 408 .242 .311 .413 103 .171 .322 1 1.3 .313
Jurickson Profar 561 .233 .324 .374 97 .141 .260 -2 1.2 .308
Luis Campusano 427 .237 .297 .375 89 .139 .277 -5 1.2 .294
Brandon Drury 479 .229 .284 .392 89 .163 .271 -1 1.2 .293
Matthew Batten 429 .225 .294 .307 71 .083 .301 3 1.1 .270
Luis Liberato 391 .221 .287 .361 82 .140 .295 3 1.1 .283
Aderlin Rodriguez 348 .235 .293 .423 100 .188 .289 0 0.6 .307
Brandon Dixon 302 .235 .288 .444 103 .209 .300 -2 0.5 .311
Korry Howell 336 .191 .275 .315 67 .124 .301 2 0.4 .264
Brandon Valenzuela 436 .201 .282 .293 64 .093 .274 0 0.4 .259
Nomar Mazara 347 .236 .300 .366 88 .131 .296 0 0.4 .292
Jorge Alfaro 334 .220 .266 .345 72 .125 .313 -3 0.3 .268
Joshua Mears 363 .173 .248 .368 71 .195 .284 0 0.3 .268
Kyle Martin 303 .209 .290 .384 89 .175 .268 0 0.2 .293
Thomas Milone 422 .207 .286 .309 69 .101 .308 1 0.2 .265
Chandler Seagle 254 .179 .238 .253 40 .074 .269 7 0.2 .222
Taylor Kohlwey 507 .238 .314 .327 82 .089 .301 -1 0.2 .286
Connor Kaiser 209 .191 .261 .309 61 .117 .274 0 0.1 .253
Matt Beaty 292 .241 .322 .345 89 .103 .289 -4 0.0 .299
José Azocar 467 .236 .279 .333 73 .096 .311 -4 -0.1 .268
Juan Zabala 267 .215 .282 .285 62 .070 .280 -4 -0.2 .256
Tirso Ornelas 506 .222 .281 .319 70 .097 .284 4 -0.2 .265
Webster Rivas 274 .206 .292 .276 63 .070 .277 -5 -0.4 .258
Ethan Skender 260 .211 .274 .287 60 .076 .291 -3 -0.6 .252
Cole Cummings 398 .187 .279 .305 66 .118 .273 1 -0.6 .263
Kelvin Melean 337 .209 .272 .284 58 .075 .271 -3 -0.7 .250
Agustin Ruiz 429 .201 .268 .329 68 .129 .271 -1 -0.8 .264
Lucas Dunn 487 .181 .270 .265 53 .084 .285 0 -0.8 .244
Grant Little 232 .202 .277 .240 49 .038 .276 0 -0.8 .239
Jorge Oña 264 .170 .239 .274 45 .104 .292 0 -1.2 .231
Michael Cantu 136 .152 .221 .192 19 .040 .273 0 -1.2 .193
Matthew Acosta 368 .196 .263 .286 56 .090 .271 -8 -1.3 .246
Reinaldo Ilarraza 326 .172 .248 .224 36 .052 .276 -4 -1.4 .218
Juan Fernandez 415 .215 .275 .291 61 .076 .271 -4 -1.5 .254
Olivier Basabe 335 .195 .257 .267 49 .072 .256 -8 -1.6 .237
Jonny Homza 318 .167 .242 .240 38 .073 .279 0 -1.8 .221

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Juan Soto Mel Ott Mike Greenwell Vladimir Guerrero
Manny Machado Sid Gordon Sal Bando Josh Donaldson
Fernando Tatis Jr. Alex Rodriguez Hanley Ramirez Bobby Grich
Jake Cronenworth Lou Whitaker Billy Herman Andy High
Ha-Seong Kim Charlie Hollocher Josh Rojas Jerry Hairston
Trent Grisham Gary Geiger Michael Saunders Karl Rhodes
Austin Nola Earl Battey Jerry Grote Carlos Ruiz
Josh Bell Doug Mientkiewicz Denis Menke Cal Emery
Domingo Leyba Mark Lemke Kurt Stillwell Jason Hardtke
C.J. Hinojosa Nick Tanielu Jason Alfaro Chico Carrasquel
Ripken Reyes Jon Sbrocco Christian Stringer Robby Price
Eguy Rosario Ray Durham Nate Oliver Danny Tartabull
Connor Hollis Melvin Mora Kevin Russo Marco Scutaro
Brett Sullivan Mike Heath Birdie Tebbetts Tom Lampkin
Wil Myers Gene Moore Justin Ruggiano Carlos Gómez
Jurickson Profar Luis Gonzalez Matt Lawton Bob Burda
Luis Campusano Yermín Mercedes Barry Lyons Wilson Ramos
Brandon Drury Razor Shines Russell Kerns Steve Demeter
Matthew Batten Trent Hubbard Everth Cabrera Andrew Romine
Luis Liberato Brian Anderson Brian Goodwin Joe Wallis
Aderlin Rodriguez Mike Marshall Matt Adams Lee Stevens
Brandon Dixon Bob Cerv Sean Rodriguez Wayne Nordhagen
Korry Howell Tanner English Rich Barnwell Reggie Thomas
Brandon Valenzuela Donnie Scott Mike Ryan Lance Rice
Nomar Mazara Abner Arroyo Mike Mitchell Mike Vento
Jorge Alfaro John Hicks Bob Montgomery Damian Miller
Joshua Mears Moe Hill Howie Goss Rowan Wick
Kyle Martin Tyler Moore Preston Ward Mark Johnson
Thomas Milone Tim Barker Sebastien Boucher Mike Murphy
Chandler Seagle Tom McGee Gilbert Vidal Matt Pagnozzi
Taylor Kohlwey Bryan Petersen Brock Holt Scott Pose
Connor Kaiser Bo Brown Bruce Chaney Alex Fonseca
Matt Beaty Chris Gwynn Bill Heath Guillermo Heredia
José Azocar Pookie Bernstine Danny Santana Andrew Stevenson
Juan Zabala Red Prentice Chuck Orner Jeff Tackett
Tirso Ornelas Jake Goebbert Dean Robbins Ronald Crowe
Webster Rivas Dan Butler Bobby Ramos Dick Bertell
Ethan Skender Mikey Reynolds Greg Erickson Rich Saitta
Cole Cummings Tim Cooper Mitch House Jim Orsag
Kelvin Melean John Marquardt Ludwig Benedetti Craig Daedelow
Agustin Ruiz Loren Gress Aaron Iatarola Joe De Berry
Lucas Dunn Mike Ahmed Tommy Thompson Al Moran
Grant Little Corey Bird Jonathan Roof Sergio Garcia
Jorge Oña Mark Tracy Kevin Cornelius Destan Makonnen
Michael Cantu Ryan Brown Matt Jones Audie Afenir
Matthew Acosta James Cooper Jeff Grose Eddie Williams 윌리엄스
Reinaldo Ilarraza Bruce Amador Jose Delgado Erick Mejias
Juan Fernandez Matt Rogelstad Mike Dzurilla Patrick Cluney
Olivier Basabe Erik Johnson Jason Kane Ed Alfonzo
Jonny Homza Derek Feramisco Manny Olloque Dion Washington

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Juan Soto .296 .463 .553 182 8.4 .250 .399 .443 141 5.0
Manny Machado .288 .361 .529 146 6.4 .239 .311 .424 107 3.2
Fernando Tatis Jr. .291 .374 .647 178 6.1 .240 .322 .495 127 3.3
Jake Cronenworth .282 .365 .473 132 5.8 .235 .319 .375 97 3.0
Ha-Seong Kim .261 .335 .431 112 4.5 .218 .291 .345 80 2.4
Trent Grisham .245 .341 .450 121 4.7 .197 .291 .345 82 2.0
Austin Nola .288 .363 .419 119 2.9 .234 .308 .332 84 1.3
Josh Bell .267 .364 .437 123 3.1 .217 .312 .345 86 0.5
Domingo Leyba .261 .322 .421 108 2.8 .209 .273 .328 71 0.7
C.J. Hinojosa .273 .322 .413 104 2.5 .220 .270 .326 68 0.2
Ripken Reyes .250 .355 .340 98 2.1 .201 .307 .274 67 0.6
Eguy Rosario .256 .326 .420 107 2.6 .215 .279 .337 72 0.0
Connor Hollis .262 .340 .378 101 2.3 .207 .286 .296 65 0.1
Brett Sullivan .266 .316 .412 102 2.3 .210 .264 .318 64 0.2
Wil Myers .266 .340 .464 123 2.3 .215 .284 .362 84 0.2
Jurickson Profar .257 .351 .423 118 2.7 .213 .300 .334 81 -0.1
Luis Campusano .262 .321 .427 108 2.2 .214 .275 .332 74 0.3
Brandon Drury .256 .308 .446 109 2.4 .206 .261 .348 71 0.0
Matthew Batten .253 .320 .351 89 2.0 .201 .269 .269 55 0.1
Luis Liberato .245 .314 .408 102 2.1 .196 .260 .317 63 0.1
Aderlin Rodriguez .260 .316 .473 119 1.5 .206 .261 .364 77 -0.4
Brandon Dixon .260 .311 .498 124 1.3 .208 .261 .388 82 -0.4
Korry Howell .216 .303 .359 85 1.2 .165 .252 .273 49 -0.4
Brandon Valenzuela .228 .310 .342 85 1.7 .173 .249 .253 46 -0.6
Nomar Mazara .264 .326 .411 107 1.2 .209 .268 .321 69 -0.5
Jorge Alfaro .246 .295 .395 93 1.2 .194 .241 .301 52 -0.6
Joshua Mears .198 .277 .429 94 1.3 .148 .226 .312 50 -0.8
Kyle Martin .233 .314 .434 108 0.9 .182 .262 .335 71 -0.6
Thomas Milone .236 .313 .354 86 1.1 .184 .256 .267 49 -1.0
Chandler Seagle .208 .270 .295 58 0.8 .154 .209 .215 22 -0.5
Taylor Kohlwey .264 .339 .366 98 1.3 .213 .288 .293 66 -0.9
Connor Kaiser .223 .290 .361 82 0.7 .165 .231 .265 42 -0.4
Matt Beaty .273 .347 .388 108 0.8 .216 .297 .303 72 -0.7
José Azocar .261 .304 .372 91 1.0 .213 .253 .298 58 -1.1
Juan Zabala .241 .304 .320 77 0.3 .190 .258 .251 47 -0.7
Tirso Ornelas .249 .309 .354 86 0.9 .196 .256 .280 52 -1.4
Webster Rivas .241 .324 .317 83 0.4 .181 .260 .239 47 -0.9
Ethan Skender .236 .300 .327 77 0.1 .186 .249 .249 44 -1.1
Cole Cummings .209 .304 .353 84 0.3 .162 .254 .266 49 -1.5
Kelvin Melean .234 .296 .324 73 -0.1 .184 .246 .250 42 -1.4
Agustin Ruiz .228 .295 .371 87 0.3 .176 .245 .288 52 -1.7
Lucas Dunn .207 .294 .303 70 0.2 .159 .250 .232 39 -1.7
Grant Little .227 .304 .271 64 -0.4 .177 .252 .209 34 -1.3
Jorge Oña .194 .264 .319 63 -0.5 .148 .215 .228 27 -1.7
Michael Cantu .178 .250 .228 35 -0.9 .130 .195 .163 4 -1.4
Matthew Acosta .222 .291 .321 73 -0.4 .175 .239 .249 40 -2.0
Reinaldo Ilarraza .195 .271 .261 51 -0.7 .146 .223 .193 21 -2.0
Juan Fernandez .240 .300 .334 79 -0.5 .187 .249 .257 44 -2.4
Olivier Basabe .222 .284 .310 68 -0.8 .166 .229 .230 31 -2.4
Jonny Homza .194 .268 .276 55 -1.1 .141 .213 .205 19 -2.6

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Josh Hader L 29 5 2 2.76 59 0 58.7 36 18 7 20 93
Joe Musgrove R 30 10 6 3.18 29 29 175.7 148 62 19 40 172
Pierce Johnson R 32 3 2 3.38 43 1 40.0 33 15 5 16 50
Robert Suarez R 32 4 2 3.42 50 0 52.7 40 20 6 22 58
Jose Castillo L 27 3 2 3.50 46 0 46.3 36 18 5 21 57
Blake Snell L 30 10 7 3.61 24 24 124.7 102 50 14 48 158
Drew Pomeranz L 34 2 2 3.76 46 0 40.7 35 17 6 18 51
Luis García R 36 4 3 3.78 52 0 50.0 43 21 5 18 53
Nick Martinez R 32 4 3 3.80 40 9 92.3 81 39 10 33 86
Nabil Crismatt R 28 4 4 3.83 44 5 82.3 76 35 10 23 79
Yu Darvish R 36 11 9 3.83 27 27 167.0 141 71 24 38 168
Steven Wilson R 28 3 3 3.83 45 1 51.7 41 22 7 20 61
Craig Stammen R 39 3 3 3.83 44 2 54.0 52 23 7 14 46
Michel Baez R 27 4 3 3.99 41 2 49.7 41 22 5 23 50
Luke Westphal L 34 2 2 4.06 24 12 57.7 50 26 6 28 60
Alek Jacob R 25 3 2 4.07 40 1 55.3 49 25 6 19 51
Adrian Morejon L 24 3 3 4.12 32 5 43.7 40 20 6 14 44
Tim Hill L 33 2 3 4.13 56 0 48.0 45 22 5 15 33
Austin Adams R 32 2 2 4.14 41 1 37.0 22 17 4 23 57
Jay Groome L 24 7 6 4.15 26 24 125.7 113 58 15 55 112
Sean Manaea L 31 8 7 4.21 25 24 136.7 129 64 20 38 138
Jesse Scholtens R 29 4 5 4.23 27 15 87.3 82 41 11 31 81
Tom Cosgrove L 27 4 4 4.26 38 1 44.3 36 21 6 21 53
Pedro Avila R 26 4 4 4.29 30 20 94.3 81 45 11 42 95
Evan Miller R 28 3 4 4.35 41 3 60.0 56 29 6 25 51
Seth Mayberry R 23 2 3 4.37 32 0 45.3 39 22 5 24 48
Sean Poppen R 29 3 4 4.37 39 3 57.7 53 28 6 24 52
Javy Guerra R 27 2 2 4.38 53 0 49.3 43 24 6 23 47
Grant Gavin R 27 4 4 4.40 43 1 57.3 50 28 7 32 59
Moises Lugo R 24 4 4 4.41 31 7 69.3 60 34 9 34 74
Ray Kerr L 28 3 3 4.47 44 3 56.3 48 28 7 36 64
Aaron Leasher L 27 6 7 4.54 27 12 81.3 77 41 11 34 71
Matt Waldron R 26 6 6 4.59 21 20 100.0 101 51 13 33 74
Angel Felipe R 25 4 4 4.61 42 0 54.7 46 28 6 33 60
Fred Schlichtholz L 27 2 2 4.62 30 1 39.0 38 20 5 17 35
Kevin Kopps R 26 1 2 4.63 37 3 46.7 40 24 5 27 45
Jackson Wolf L 24 7 8 4.65 22 21 108.3 101 56 15 48 95
Thomas Eshelman R 29 4 5 4.66 23 19 100.3 110 52 15 19 51
Julio Teheran R 32 5 7 4.68 18 18 98.0 89 51 16 47 85
Ryan Weathers L 23 5 7 4.71 29 20 116.7 116 61 15 48 79
Edwuin Bencomo R 24 3 4 4.71 31 1 63.0 62 33 9 21 48
Jose Quezada R 27 2 2 4.72 31 1 34.3 31 18 5 18 34
Carlos Belen R 27 3 4 4.73 39 0 53.3 55 28 7 17 34
Jose Espada R 26 1 2 4.85 16 5 39.0 36 21 7 18 39
Jason Blanchard L 26 1 1 4.85 13 9 29.7 27 16 5 15 31
Henry Henry R 24 2 3 4.88 33 6 72.0 70 39 9 38 58
Brandon Komar R 24 4 6 4.95 27 12 91.0 92 50 12 41 65
Noel Vela L 24 6 8 4.95 24 21 91.0 87 50 12 57 81
Felix Minjarez R 26 2 4 4.95 33 1 56.3 55 31 9 28 51
Brandon Kintzler R 38 1 2 4.97 28 0 25.3 28 14 4 10 16
Jordan Guerrero R 26 3 4 4.98 22 6 59.7 60 33 9 31 48
Osvaldo Hernandez L 25 3 5 5.02 27 11 66.3 69 37 10 24 45
Reiss Knehr R 26 3 5 5.03 30 15 87.7 81 49 12 47 76
Heath Fillmyer R 29 3 4 5.03 19 11 59.0 58 33 8 30 48
Mason Fox R 26 2 4 5.11 31 0 44.0 41 25 6 26 43
Lake Bachar R 28 3 6 5.13 23 12 72.0 73 41 11 33 59
Gabe Mosser R 27 3 4 5.16 14 11 59.3 66 34 10 18 37
Gabe Morales L 24 2 2 5.30 23 5 56.0 51 33 9 44 59
Ramon Perez L 23 2 4 5.32 36 1 45.7 39 27 6 35 47
Nick Thwaits R 24 3 5 5.43 24 6 59.7 64 36 10 23 41
Dwayne Matos R 22 2 5 5.66 19 11 68.3 75 43 12 30 36
Ryan Lillie R 27 3 6 5.95 18 11 65.0 73 43 13 32 44

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Josh Hader 58.7 14.3 3.1 1.1 8.6% 40.1% .266 138 2.71 73 1.9
Joe Musgrove 175.7 8.8 2.0 1.0 5.7% 24.3% .273 120 3.52 84 3.4
Pierce Johnson 40.0 11.3 3.6 1.1 9.4% 29.2% .292 113 3.55 89 0.4
Robert Suarez 52.7 9.9 3.8 1.0 10.0% 26.5% .260 111 3.91 90 0.6
Jose Castillo 46.3 11.1 4.1 1.0 10.8% 29.2% .282 109 3.71 92 0.3
Blake Snell 124.7 11.4 3.5 1.0 9.1% 30.1% .296 105 3.28 95 1.9
Drew Pomeranz 40.7 11.3 4.0 1.3 10.3% 29.3% .296 101 3.96 99 0.1
Luis García 50.0 9.5 3.2 0.9 8.4% 24.8% .288 101 3.59 99 0.3
Nick Martinez 92.3 8.4 3.2 1.0 8.5% 22.2% .277 100 3.87 100 1.0
Nabil Crismatt 82.3 8.6 2.5 1.1 6.7% 23.0% .289 99 3.80 101 0.6
Yu Darvish 167.0 9.1 2.0 1.3 5.6% 24.9% .267 99 3.87 101 2.2
Steven Wilson 51.7 10.6 3.5 1.2 9.3% 28.2% .272 99 3.83 101 0.3
Craig Stammen 54.0 7.7 2.3 1.2 6.2% 20.4% .287 99 4.02 101 0.3
Michel Baez 49.7 9.1 4.2 0.9 10.7% 23.3% .273 95 4.20 105 0.1
Luke Westphal 57.7 9.4 4.4 0.9 11.0% 23.6% .288 94 3.93 107 0.5
Alek Jacob 55.3 8.3 3.1 1.0 8.2% 22.1% .279 94 4.07 107 0.1
Adrian Morejon 43.7 9.1 2.9 1.2 7.7% 24.0% .288 92 4.02 108 0.2
Tim Hill 48.0 6.2 2.8 0.9 7.5% 16.4% .272 92 4.32 108 -0.1
Austin Adams 37.0 13.9 5.6 1.0 14.6% 36.1% .257 92 4.15 109 0.0
Jay Groome 125.7 8.0 3.9 1.1 10.1% 20.7% .277 92 4.43 109 1.1
Sean Manaea 136.7 9.1 2.5 1.3 6.7% 24.2% .293 90 3.98 111 1.0
Jesse Scholtens 87.3 8.3 3.2 1.1 8.3% 21.7% .289 90 4.14 111 0.6
Tom Cosgrove 44.3 10.8 4.3 1.2 11.1% 27.9% .280 89 4.15 112 0.0
Pedro Avila 94.3 9.1 4.0 1.0 10.4% 23.5% .278 89 4.25 113 0.7
Evan Miller 60.0 7.7 3.8 0.9 9.6% 19.6% .286 87 4.20 114 0.0
Seth Mayberry 45.3 9.5 4.8 1.0 12.0% 24.0% .286 87 4.26 115 -0.2
Sean Poppen 57.7 8.1 3.7 0.9 9.6% 20.9% .287 87 4.32 115 0.0
Javy Guerra 49.3 8.6 4.2 1.1 10.7% 22.0% .274 87 4.35 115 -0.2
Grant Gavin 57.3 9.3 5.0 1.1 12.6% 23.3% .283 87 4.67 116 -0.3
Moises Lugo 69.3 9.6 4.4 1.2 11.3% 24.6% .283 86 4.35 116 0.1
Ray Kerr 56.3 10.2 5.8 1.1 14.2% 25.2% .289 85 4.63 118 -0.1
Aaron Leasher 81.3 7.9 3.8 1.2 9.6% 20.1% .283 84 4.60 119 0.2
Matt Waldron 100.0 6.7 3.0 1.2 7.7% 17.2% .288 83 4.56 121 0.3
Angel Felipe 54.7 9.9 5.4 1.0 13.3% 24.2% .286 83 4.53 121 -0.4
Fred Schlichtholz 39.0 8.1 3.9 1.2 9.9% 20.3% .295 82 4.41 121 -0.2
Kevin Kopps 46.7 8.7 5.2 1.0 12.8% 21.3% .276 82 4.61 122 -0.1
Jackson Wolf 108.3 7.9 4.0 1.2 10.2% 20.2% .279 82 4.67 122 0.3
Thomas Eshelman 100.3 4.6 1.7 1.3 4.5% 12.0% .282 82 4.80 123 0.2
Julio Teheran 98.0 7.8 4.3 1.5 11.0% 20.0% .265 81 5.22 123 0.2
Ryan Weathers 116.7 6.1 3.7 1.2 9.4% 15.6% .278 81 4.81 124 0.1
Edwuin Bencomo 63.0 6.9 3.0 1.3 7.7% 17.6% .280 81 4.77 124 -0.5
Jose Quezada 34.3 8.9 4.7 1.3 11.8% 22.2% .280 81 4.90 124 -0.3
Carlos Belen 53.3 5.7 2.9 1.2 7.3% 14.5% .282 81 4.82 124 -0.5
Jose Espada 39.0 9.0 4.2 1.6 10.6% 22.9% .279 78 5.03 127 -0.1
Jason Blanchard 29.7 9.4 4.6 1.5 11.5% 23.7% .282 78 4.87 128 0.0
Henry Henry 72.0 7.3 4.8 1.1 11.7% 17.8% .285 78 4.92 128 -0.3
Brandon Komar 91.0 6.4 4.1 1.2 10.2% 16.1% .285 77 4.89 130 -0.3
Noel Vela 91.0 8.0 5.6 1.2 13.6% 19.3% .288 77 5.00 130 -0.1
Felix Minjarez 56.3 8.1 4.5 1.4 11.1% 20.2% .288 77 4.96 130 -0.6
Brandon Kintzler 25.3 5.7 3.6 1.4 8.9% 14.3% .293 76 5.25 131 -0.4
Jordan Guerrero 59.7 7.2 4.7 1.4 11.4% 17.7% .287 76 5.16 131 -0.3
Osvaldo Hernandez 66.3 6.1 3.3 1.4 8.2% 15.4% .284 76 5.07 132 -0.3
Reiss Knehr 87.7 7.8 4.8 1.2 12.1% 19.5% .276 76 5.01 132 -0.3
Heath Fillmyer 59.0 7.3 4.6 1.2 11.4% 18.2% .286 76 5.02 132 -0.1
Mason Fox 44.0 8.8 5.3 1.2 13.1% 21.7% .289 74 4.81 134 -0.6
Lake Bachar 72.0 7.4 4.1 1.4 10.2% 18.2% .290 74 5.04 135 -0.3
Gabe Mosser 59.3 5.6 2.7 1.5 6.9% 14.2% .292 74 5.16 136 -0.2
Gabe Morales 56.0 9.5 7.1 1.4 16.5% 22.2% .286 72 5.60 139 -0.6
Ramon Perez 45.7 9.3 6.9 1.2 16.1% 21.7% .275 71 5.50 140 -0.8
Nick Thwaits 59.7 6.2 3.5 1.5 8.6% 15.4% .289 70 5.32 143 -0.7
Dwayne Matos 68.3 4.7 4.0 1.6 9.8% 11.7% .279 67 5.92 149 -0.9
Ryan Lillie 65.0 6.1 4.4 1.8 10.8% 14.8% .291 64 6.01 157 -1.0

Pitchers – Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Josh Hader Billy Wagner Jesse Orosco Al Hrabosky 3.0 0.7 1.80 3.85
Joe Musgrove Doug Drabek Johnny Cueto Roy Oswalt 4.5 2.2 2.81 3.69
Pierce Johnson Jose Vargas John Habyan Chaz Roe 0.9 -0.2 2.55 4.69
Robert Suarez Pedro Strop Wade Davis Jesse Crain 1.3 -0.3 2.59 4.76
Jose Castillo Chuck Hensley Boone Logan Luis Avilan 0.8 -0.3 2.79 4.43
Blake Snell Earl Whitehill Larry McWilliams Mickey Lolich 3.3 0.5 2.79 4.65
Drew Pomeranz Oliver Peréz Mike Gonzalez Randy Myers 0.7 -0.5 2.81 5.06
Luis García Mike Marshall Tony Pena Jose Mesa 0.9 -0.4 3.02 4.97
Nick Martinez Howie Judson Duke Markell Phil Collins 1.7 0.1 3.35 4.37
Nabil Crismatt Mike Burns Chris Reitsma Erik Arnesen 1.3 -0.2 3.14 4.64
Yu Darvish Bert Blyleven Gaylord Perry Justin Verlander 3.5 0.8 3.18 4.61
Steven Wilson Bill Simas Chris Perez Dave Tobik 0.8 -0.4 3.10 4.80
Craig Stammen Johnny Sain Lindy McDaniel Donn Pall 0.8 -0.3 3.17 4.57
Michel Baez Elias Sosa Daryl Patterson Art Herring 0.6 -0.4 3.51 4.83
Luke Westphal Wade Browning Al Closter Charlie Gorin 1.1 -0.1 3.39 5.00
Alek Jacob Dennis Saunders George McWilliams Javier Solano 0.6 -0.4 3.43 4.78
Adrian Morejon Brian Currie Ed Olwine Reese Lambert 0.7 -0.3 3.30 5.22
Tim Hill Paul Lindblad Sam Zoldak Juan Agosto 0.4 -0.5 3.50 4.90
Austin Adams Fernando Rodney Ryne Duren Mark Clear 0.6 -0.6 2.94 6.10
Jay Groome Dan Morogiello Pat Combs Eddie Bane 2.0 0.1 3.68 4.71
Sean Manaea Bob Kerrigan Al Sima Jose Quintana 2.1 -0.3 3.59 4.96
Jesse Scholtens Jay Tibbs Wilton Chavez Ed Wojna 1.4 -0.2 3.56 4.89
Tom Cosgrove Joe Filomeno Rich Sauveur Josh Edgin 0.5 -0.5 3.51 5.11
Pedro Avila Dick Brodowski Pete Magrini Tom Dixon 1.5 -0.2 3.78 4.98
Evan Miller Stew Cliburn Mike Blyzka Freddy Dolsi 0.5 -0.6 3.77 5.05
Seth Mayberry Chester Gunter Phil Hennigan Joe Graves 0.2 -0.6 3.80 5.05
Sean Poppen Dave Gumpert Mike Buddie Steve Phoenix 0.5 -0.6 3.80 5.09
Javy Guerra Neftali Feliz Ronald Belisario David Shafer 0.2 -0.7 3.80 5.13
Grant Gavin Ruddy Lugo Dan Boitano Brandon Puffer 0.3 -0.9 3.80 5.17
Moises Lugo Tyson Ross Jesus Colome Mel Rojas 0.7 -0.5 3.86 5.07
Ray Kerr Kevin Chapman Mark Bowden Michael Kirkman 0.4 -0.7 3.80 5.23
Aaron Leasher Jon DeClue Doug Johns Frank Gonzales 0.8 -0.6 4.00 5.21
Matt Waldron John Snyder Shane Loux Jerry Kutzler 1.0 -0.5 4.09 5.27
Angel Felipe Kyle Money Dean Wilkins Romulo Sanchez 0.1 -1.0 3.98 5.32
Fred Schlichtholz David Rollins Bert Cole Wally Hebert 0.2 -0.6 3.87 5.33
Kevin Kopps Dave Sells Jim Cosman Mark Lee 0.2 -0.7 4.03 5.50
Jackson Wolf Brandon Waddell Dave Owen Nick Additon 애디튼 1.1 -0.5 4.17 5.22
Thomas Eshelman Frank Duncan Konner Wade Zach Neal 0.7 -0.4 4.30 5.05
Julio Teheran Bob Buhl Joe Coleman Spec Shea 0.9 -0.7 4.10 5.54
Ryan Weathers Todd Hansen Tim Berry Foster Griffin 0.8 -0.6 4.31 5.14
Edwuin Bencomo Jack Cassel Travis Willis Eric Yardley 0.1 -0.9 4.09 5.42
Jose Quezada Dar Smith Donald Hammitt Aris Tirado 0.0 -0.7 4.12 5.55
Carlos Belen Eric Cendejas Eric Yardley Aaron Cotter -0.2 -1.0 4.23 5.45
Jose Espada Mike Gardner Vernon Temple Brian Otten 0.3 -0.5 4.18 5.86
Jason Blanchard Dave Sensenbrenner Eddie Ancherico Paul Schnieders 0.3 -0.3 4.11 5.52
Henry Henry Roberto Alexander Douglas Norton Bill Marx 0.2 -1.0 4.39 5.56
Brandon Komar George Gerberman Dakota Bacus Gary Groce 0.3 -1.0 4.53 5.55
Noel Vela Brian O’Connor Billy MacLeod Chuck Lofgren 0.5 -0.9 4.52 5.63
Felix Minjarez Trevor Simms Kenneth Weber Tim Sossamon -0.2 -1.1 4.34 5.62
Brandon Kintzler Harry Gumbert Turk Farrell Dolf Luque -0.1 -0.6 4.21 5.90
Jordan Guerrero Ron Cole Darren Byrd Mark Small 0.1 -0.9 4.42 5.75
Osvaldo Hernandez Corey Hamman Brandon Leibrandt Matt Crouse 0.2 -0.8 4.52 5.64
Reiss Knehr Cardell Camper Paul Seitz Tyler Beede 0.2 -1.3 4.60 5.83
Heath Fillmyer Mario Alvarez Thomas Arruda Mike Bumstead 0.4 -0.7 4.42 5.66
Mason Fox David Carpenter Mike Berlin Gene Escat -0.3 -1.0 4.51 5.85
Lake Bachar Cody McAllister Matt Oye Steve Maye 0.3 -1.0 4.51 5.81
Gabe Mosser Eddie Cody Josh Prevost Tommy Bergjans 0.2 -0.7 4.64 5.76
Gabe Morales Alan Webb Mike Mohler Scott Prather 0.0 -1.3 4.56 6.27
Ramon Perez Rob Hatfield William Tucker Rich Shubert -0.3 -1.3 4.61 6.22
Nick Thwaits Greg Halvorson Lance Janke Gabriel Alvarado -0.2 -1.1 4.75 6.03
Dwayne Matos Blayne Enlow Raul Alcantara George Jensen -0.4 -1.4 5.23 6.28
Ryan Lillie Ray Hanson Brian Daly James Dietz -0.5 -1.6 5.38 6.68

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

39 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Cave Dameron
2 months ago

Thank you Dan, very cool!