2022 ZiPS Projections: Toronto Blue Jays

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Batters

If you start with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, it’s hard for your offense to do too poorly without major malpractice. And no malpractice is present here, as George Springer projects to (hopefully) have a healthier season while the Jays’ confusing, Cerberus-like catching situation should be adequate whatever configuration they go with. Teoscar Hernández projects to regress a bit BABIP-wise, but his power still makes him a comfortable plug-and-play cleanup hitter, though I’d personally prefer that he hit third since that’s the lineup spot that leads off the fewest innings. ZiPS doesn’t see Cavan Biggio being as much of a chip off the old block as Bichette or Guerrero, but it does expect a great deal of improvement from his sub-replacement 2021 season.

There are still places where the Jays can make improvements. Santiago Espinal was a nice little surprise and hit very well in the majors in 2021, but the projections are unimpressed with a minor league record that screams complementary talent. Kevin Smith projects to hit for power but with a low BA/OBP, and he’ll probably struggle to be valuable at third unless he turns out to be extremely adept at playing the hot corner. Another spare outfielder would also be helpful; ZiPS isn’t crazy about Randal Grichuk as the main fallback option.

Reinforcements from the minors are likely to be limited. The Jays haven’t splurged on NRI signings yet and while Jordan Groshans and Orelvis Martinez project to be contributors in the future, 2022 may be a bit too soon unless one of them has a sudden breakout. All that said, I’d argue that the other teams in the AL East have at least one more serious question to answer than the Jays do.

Pitchers

Toronto’s front four looks absolutely rock-solid, with ZiPS projecting Alek Manoah to continue to build on his breakout 2021 season. What else can you say about this group? I’d take them over any other quartet in the division. The fifth starter is a little trickier, however, and given the competition in the AL East, I’d like the Blue Jays to add some depth of the Matthew Boyd variety rather than going with Ross Stripling until they’re sure about Nate Pearson and how much they can stretch him out as a starter. Plus, injuries do happen and the other starting options in the high minors aren’t terribly exciting. Even with the concerns about the back of the rotation, I’m much happier with the group than I would be if we flipped the calendar back a year.

Toronto’s bullpen wasn’t a highlight last season, but that was largely due to an itchier-than-usual rash of injuries. There isn’t much here that will knock your socks off beyond Jordan Romano, but there are a lot of solid projections. Like the rotation and the lineup, I think another arm or two in the back of the bullpen to fatten up the roster would be helpful, as the minor league depth isn’t that exciting.

I think all four of the good teams in the AL East have a strong chance at 90 wins, and while they may not project to have the highest ceiling, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Jays with the best shot to get there. All the contenders have work to do, but Toronto’s challenges are more about finding role players along the periphery than landing the big score. Not that one wouldn’t be welcome, of course!

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. R 23 1B 667 581 117 176 31 2 43 112 79 99 3 1
Bo Bichette R 24 SS 668 616 110 179 34 3 29 101 44 126 25 4
George Springer R 32 CF 440 386 73 103 19 2 24 65 47 94 5 2
Teoscar Hernández R 29 RF 584 537 82 144 27 2 32 100 40 155 10 4
Cavan Biggio L 27 3B 477 404 60 91 19 2 16 52 65 132 9 2
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. R 28 LF 532 495 65 137 29 2 23 81 27 108 3 4
Danny Jansen R 27 C 316 276 42 63 15 1 14 43 30 65 0 0
Alejandro Kirk R 23 C 301 266 35 67 16 0 11 36 28 41 0 0
Gabriel Moreno R 22 C 241 220 30 57 10 2 9 28 14 44 2 2
Jordan Groshans R 22 SS 357 324 49 78 17 1 9 35 27 78 0 0
Breyvic Valera B 30 3B 383 344 46 88 16 2 9 40 31 50 7 5
Kevin Smith R 25 SS 476 437 53 97 20 2 20 59 30 141 12 4
Randal Grichuk R 30 CF 557 521 67 128 28 2 26 83 29 123 1 2
Samad Taylor R 23 2B 405 361 50 82 14 1 14 41 32 124 19 6
Santiago Espinal R 27 3B 408 375 44 95 18 1 5 31 28 65 7 5
Corey Dickerson L 33 LF 372 347 42 92 20 3 9 36 21 69 4 3
Reese McGuire L 27 C 303 276 31 65 15 1 6 22 20 62 1 0
Gregory Polanco L 30 RF 430 380 48 86 20 2 16 48 41 112 13 1
Otto Lopez R 23 2B 532 486 73 123 23 3 9 47 31 101 15 5
Dilson Herrera R 28 2B 338 305 38 63 14 1 14 40 25 108 4 2
Orelvis Martinez R 20 SS 466 434 53 98 19 1 22 68 26 128 2 1
Gosuke Katoh L 27 2B 414 372 45 85 16 2 8 32 37 110 7 4
Spencer Horwitz L 24 1B 456 411 61 101 22 0 11 47 37 77 3 2
Christian Colón R 33 LF 444 395 50 94 19 1 10 43 31 60 8 7
Rafael Lantigua R 24 2B 392 364 41 82 16 2 10 35 24 91 14 6
Jared Hoying L 33 RF 396 369 47 86 16 2 13 43 23 83 10 3
Forrest Wall L 26 CF 429 391 43 86 17 3 8 30 32 123 21 5
Tanner Morris L 24 2B 445 401 58 92 17 2 8 38 35 99 2 1
Jarrod Dyson L 37 CF 238 216 29 44 7 2 2 15 18 51 17 6
Vinny Capra R 25 3B 360 328 39 71 14 1 7 31 23 97 6 2
Rodrigo Vigil R 29 C 168 154 15 32 5 0 2 10 7 33 1 1
Mallex Smith L 29 LF 475 431 56 105 20 7 5 34 34 105 33 8
Chavez Young B 24 CF 395 358 44 75 13 2 7 31 27 114 14 6
Logan Warmoth R 26 CF 406 359 44 68 13 2 7 30 35 144 10 3
Jake Lamb L 31 RF 242 211 29 42 9 1 7 29 26 68 0 1
Kellin Deglan L 30 C 197 179 20 35 7 0 6 18 12 65 1 0
Nash Knight B 29 3B 333 297 35 57 12 1 7 28 29 92 1 3
Kevin Vicuña R 24 SS 398 367 44 78 14 2 4 27 19 99 11 5
Josh Palacios L 26 RF 298 266 30 56 11 1 5 25 25 84 6 4
Nathan Lukes L 27 RF 339 308 40 76 17 2 5 32 19 61 3 2
Chris Bec R 26 C 188 173 21 32 5 0 3 14 14 52 8 2
Nick Podkul R 25 1B 294 263 30 50 11 1 6 23 25 77 5 2
LJ Talley L 25 1B 349 318 42 68 12 1 8 32 24 83 2 0
Ryan Gold L 24 C 381 351 40 67 17 2 8 35 23 111 1 1
Cullen Large B 26 RF 451 407 49 93 20 3 8 35 32 119 3 3
Reggie Pruitt R 25 LF 351 322 31 53 9 3 3 19 24 140 16 7

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. .303 .390 .585 161 .282 .303 8.9 0 5.9 Eddie Murray
Bo Bichette .291 .341 .497 125 .206 .325 6.8 0 4.7 Hanley Ramirez
George Springer .267 .352 .513 132 .246 .295 6.7 0 3.0 Moises Alou
Teoscar Hernández .268 .324 .505 121 .236 .320 6.1 -7 1.8 Dan Ford
Cavan Biggio .225 .334 .401 100 .176 .293 4.8 2 1.7 Frank Menechino
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. .277 .316 .483 114 .206 .313 5.6 0 1.5 Mark Quinn
Danny Jansen .228 .315 .442 104 .214 .249 4.9 1 1.5 Tom Prince
Alejandro Kirk .252 .327 .436 106 .184 .262 5.1 -1 1.3 Orlando Mercado
Gabriel Moreno .259 .308 .445 103 .186 .287 4.9 3 1.2 Terry Steinbach
Jordan Groshans .241 .301 .383 86 .142 .291 4.1 2 0.8 Scott Hodges
Breyvic Valera .256 .318 .392 93 .137 .277 4.4 1 0.8 Chuck Jackson
Kevin Smith .222 .276 .414 85 .192 .279 4.1 -1 0.7 Greg Gagne
Randal Grichuk .246 .289 .457 99 .211 .274 4.7 -8 0.7 Jerry Morales
Samad Taylor .227 .296 .388 85 .161 .305 4.2 0 0.6 David Newhan
Santiago Espinal .253 .308 .347 79 .093 .295 3.8 5 0.5 Greg Legg
Corey Dickerson .265 .309 .418 96 .153 .309 4.7 1 0.4 Frank Catalanotto
Reese McGuire .236 .290 .362 77 .127 .284 3.7 1 0.4 Mark Parent
Gregory Polanco .226 .302 .416 92 .189 .278 4.7 -4 0.3 Ted Wood
Otto Lopez .253 .302 .368 82 .115 .303 4.1 -2 0.3 Ryne Sandberg
Dilson Herrera .207 .276 .397 81 .190 .268 3.7 1 0.3 Jorge Velandia
Orelvis Martinez .226 .275 .426 88 .200 .268 4.1 -7 0.2 Jose Valdez
Gosuke Katoh .228 .301 .347 77 .118 .303 3.6 1 0.2 Willie Lozado
Spencer Horwitz .246 .311 .380 88 .134 .279 4.2 2 0.2 Brian Traxler
Christian Colón .238 .301 .367 82 .129 .258 3.7 4 0.0 Noah Hall
Rafael Lantigua .225 .276 .363 73 .137 .274 3.5 1 0.0 Michael Bell
Jared Hoying .233 .280 .393 81 .160 .267 4.0 2 0.0 Mike Devereaux
Forrest Wall .220 .285 .340 70 .120 .300 3.6 0 -0.1 Dustin Martin
Tanner Morris .229 .298 .342 75 .112 .286 3.6 -1 -0.1 Rob Mummau
Jarrod Dyson .204 .264 .282 50 .079 .258 2.8 4 -0.3 Mike Kingery
Vinny Capra .216 .274 .329 64 .113 .286 3.2 1 -0.3 Scott Leius
Rodrigo Vigil .208 .259 .279 48 .071 .252 2.4 1 -0.4 Pedro Grifol
Mallex Smith .244 .309 .357 82 .114 .312 4.4 -5 -0.4 Chris Duffy
Chavez Young .209 .270 .316 60 .106 .287 3.0 2 -0.5 Tracey Ealy
Logan Warmoth .189 .272 .295 56 .106 .293 2.8 3 -0.5 Jason Knoedler
Jake Lamb .199 .293 .351 75 .152 .257 3.4 -2 -0.5 Ryan McGuire
Kellin Deglan .196 .260 .335 61 .140 .269 3.0 -4 -0.6 Dane Sardinha
Nash Knight .192 .274 .310 60 .118 .253 2.7 0 -0.7 Ray Oyler
Kevin Vicuña .213 .263 .294 53 .082 .280 2.7 2 -0.7 Chris McConnell
Josh Palacios .211 .286 .316 65 .105 .288 3.0 1 -0.7 Jason Jackson
Nathan Lukes .247 .296 .364 79 .117 .293 3.8 -4 -0.7 Roy Silver
Chris Bec .185 .250 .266 42 .081 .246 2.4 -3 -0.8 J.C. Boscan
Nick Podkul .190 .270 .308 58 .118 .244 2.8 2 -0.9 Craig Griffey
LJ Talley .214 .269 .333 64 .119 .264 3.1 2 -0.9 Garrick Haltiwanger
Ryan Gold .191 .250 .319 54 .128 .254 2.6 -3 -1.0 Walt McKeel
Cullen Large .229 .290 .351 75 .123 .304 3.5 -3 -1.0 Craig Cooper
Reggie Pruitt .165 .229 .239 29 .075 .279 1.8 0 -2.4 Travis Ezi

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Kevin Gausman R 31 11 7 3.61 29 29 164.7 145 66 22 40 177 3.59
José Berríos R 28 13 8 3.84 31 31 185.3 167 79 26 48 191 3.91
Hyun Jin Ryu L 35 12 8 3.69 27 27 151.3 148 62 20 30 128 3.84
Alek Manoah R 24 9 5 3.53 23 23 119.7 96 47 14 44 140 3.87
Jordan Romano R 29 5 3 3.36 57 0 56.3 43 21 8 21 75 3.59
Ross Stripling R 32 6 6 4.78 26 19 98.0 101 52 18 29 90 4.68
Ryan Borucki L 28 5 4 4.46 30 11 76.7 73 38 9 35 70 4.33
Bowden Francis R 26 9 10 5.10 26 25 125.3 130 71 22 52 113 5.05
Zach Logue L 26 7 8 5.06 24 23 117.3 124 66 22 36 102 4.95
Trevor Richards R 29 5 3 3.72 62 0 67.7 56 28 9 26 81 3.71
Tim Mayza L 30 4 2 3.55 61 0 50.7 43 20 5 19 55 3.54
Nate Pearson R 25 4 3 4.50 24 13 60.0 54 30 10 29 69 4.60
Trent Thornton R 28 5 4 4.79 38 13 92.0 95 49 16 33 88 4.73
Adam Cimber R 31 4 3 3.84 68 0 63.3 63 27 6 16 44 4.02
Jacob Waguespack R 28 5 5 4.88 26 13 83.0 85 45 14 33 73 4.99
Thomas Hatch R 27 6 7 5.12 25 20 96.7 101 55 17 39 84 5.09
Matt Gage L 29 5 5 4.86 33 10 74.0 77 40 13 24 67 4.79
Jeremy Beasley R 26 5 5 5.00 28 14 75.7 76 42 12 37 70 5.06
Anthony Kay L 27 5 6 5.18 24 17 88.7 91 51 15 44 84 5.14
Joey Murray R 25 7 8 5.32 24 22 106.7 108 63 22 50 98 5.60
Kirby Snead L 27 3 2 4.14 45 1 50.0 46 23 7 20 53 4.20
Nick Fraze R 24 3 4 5.11 16 12 56.3 61 32 9 20 41 5.03
Yimi García R 31 6 5 4.27 58 0 52.7 47 25 9 16 57 4.32
Maximo Castillo R 23 7 8 5.42 22 21 103.0 115 62 19 38 73 5.44
Kyle Johnston R 25 5 5 5.18 34 14 81.7 86 47 11 43 60 5.22
Casey Lawrence R 34 4 5 5.22 21 12 70.7 79 41 13 18 54 4.98
Joakim Soria R 38 3 2 4.14 45 0 41.3 38 19 6 13 44 3.95
Shaun Anderson R 27 3 3 5.15 35 11 85.7 92 49 15 34 75 5.04
David Phelps R 35 2 1 4.05 23 1 20.0 18 9 3 7 23 4.03
José De León R 29 2 2 4.91 22 6 40.3 36 22 7 23 52 4.79
Anthony Castro R 27 3 4 5.19 31 10 69.3 67 40 11 42 72 5.20
Luis Quinones R 24 5 6 5.48 17 16 70.7 67 43 11 54 73 5.60
Julian Merryweather R 30 1 1 4.43 16 1 22.3 23 11 3 7 20 4.21
Fitz Stadler R 25 3 3 5.10 36 6 67.0 68 38 9 38 61 4.99
Tayler Saucedo L 29 4 4 5.17 36 7 69.7 73 40 12 29 57 5.20
Graham Spraker R 27 3 3 5.32 28 7 66.0 70 39 11 30 54 5.26
Rafael Dolis R 34 4 4 4.64 48 0 42.7 38 22 6 25 46 4.82
Jackson Rees R 27 3 2 4.62 27 0 37.0 35 19 5 17 37 4.32
Marcus Reyes L 27 2 2 4.71 33 0 57.3 61 30 7 23 41 4.70
A.J. Cole R 30 2 2 4.85 26 1 29.7 30 16 6 11 30 4.90
Conor Fisk R 30 4 4 5.48 26 9 67.3 73 41 14 24 56 5.47
Nick Allgeyer L 26 5 6 5.70 22 17 90.0 100 57 18 39 68 5.74
Brody Rodning L 26 4 4 4.86 33 0 46.3 47 25 7 21 39 4.95
Mike Ellenbest R 27 2 3 5.31 26 3 39.0 41 23 6 20 32 5.23
Travis Bergen L 28 2 2 5.18 36 1 33.0 31 19 5 21 32 5.30
Cre Finfrock R 26 1 1 5.40 21 1 23.3 22 14 3 16 23 5.07
Elvis Luciano R 22 0 1 6.03 15 12 37.3 41 25 7 21 30 5.86
Brandon Eisert L 24 4 4 5.03 33 0 62.7 66 35 11 23 52 5.09
Parker Caracci R 25 3 3 5.29 40 0 49.3 51 29 8 27 41 5.39
Jon Harris R 28 4 5 5.91 27 8 64.0 74 42 15 20 46 5.91
Jackson McClelland R 27 1 2 6.62 30 0 35.3 39 26 9 22 30 6.83

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Kevin Gausman 9.7 2.2 1.2 5.9% 26.3% .287 125 80 3.7 Bret Saberhagen
José Berríos 9.3 2.3 1.3 6.2% 24.8% .285 117 85 3.5 Kevin Millwood
Hyun Jin Ryu 7.6 1.8 1.2 4.8% 20.5% .289 122 82 3.1 Harry Brecheen
Alek Manoah 10.5 3.3 1.1 8.7% 27.6% .279 127 79 2.6 Floyd Youmans
Jordan Romano 12.0 3.4 1.3 9.1% 32.3% .278 134 75 1.0 Troy Percival
Ross Stripling 8.3 2.7 1.7 6.9% 21.5% .296 94 106 0.9 Scott Sanderson
Ryan Borucki 8.2 4.1 1.1 10.4% 20.9% .292 101 99 0.8 Chris Capuano
Bowden Francis 8.1 3.7 1.6 9.4% 20.4% .298 88 114 0.8 Jason Young
Zach Logue 7.8 2.8 1.7 7.1% 20.0% .297 89 113 0.8 Rheal Cormier
Trevor Richards 10.8 3.5 1.2 9.2% 28.7% .285 121 83 0.7 Felix Rodriguez
Tim Mayza 9.8 3.4 0.9 8.9% 25.8% .288 126 79 0.7 Terry Forster
Nate Pearson 10.4 4.4 1.5 11.1% 26.4% .291 100 100 0.7 Cloyd Boyer
Trent Thornton 8.6 3.2 1.6 8.2% 21.9% .303 94 107 0.6 Tim Leary
Adam Cimber 6.3 2.3 0.9 5.9% 16.4% .288 117 85 0.6 Kent Tekulve
Jacob Waguespack 7.9 3.6 1.5 9.0% 19.9% .295 92 109 0.6 Al Holland
Thomas Hatch 7.8 3.6 1.6 9.1% 19.6% .297 88 114 0.6 Sergio Mitre
Matt Gage 8.1 2.9 1.6 7.5% 20.8% .299 92 108 0.5 Dan Schatzeder
Jeremy Beasley 8.3 4.4 1.4 10.9% 20.6% .296 90 111 0.5 Eric Mustad
Anthony Kay 8.5 4.5 1.5 11.0% 21.0% .302 87 115 0.5 Mike Gosling
Joey Murray 8.3 4.2 1.9 10.5% 20.6% .287 84 118 0.4 Mark Portugal
Kirby Snead 9.5 3.6 1.3 9.3% 24.7% .293 108 92 0.4 Yorkis Perez
Nick Fraze 6.6 3.2 1.4 8.0% 16.5% .295 88 114 0.3 John Stephens
Yimi García 9.7 2.7 1.5 7.2% 25.8% .279 105 95 0.3 Jerry Spradlin
Maximo Castillo 6.4 3.3 1.7 8.3% 15.9% .296 83 121 0.3 Travis Harper
Kyle Johnston 6.6 4.7 1.2 11.5% 16.1% .295 87 115 0.3 Gordon Rhodes
Casey Lawrence 6.9 2.3 1.7 5.8% 17.5% .301 86 116 0.3 Aaron Small
Joakim Soria 9.6 2.8 1.3 7.5% 25.4% .294 109 92 0.3 Jeff Montgomery
Shaun Anderson 7.9 3.6 1.6 8.9% 19.7% .304 87 115 0.3 Frank Rodriguez
David Phelps 10.4 3.2 1.4 8.2% 27.1% .294 111 90 0.2 Billy Taylor
José De León 11.6 5.1 1.6 12.7% 28.7% .302 91 109 0.2 Mark Corey
Anthony Castro 9.3 5.5 1.4 13.2% 22.7% .299 87 116 0.2 Kevin Gallaher
Luis Quinones 9.3 6.9 1.4 16.3% 22.0% .295 82 122 0.2 John D’Acquisto
Julian Merryweather 8.1 2.8 1.2 7.3% 20.8% .308 101 99 0.1 Danny Patterson
Fitz Stadler 8.2 5.1 1.2 12.4% 19.9% .304 88 114 0.1 Jesus Delgado
Tayler Saucedo 7.4 3.7 1.6 9.4% 18.4% .293 87 115 0.1 Matt Perisho
Graham Spraker 7.4 4.1 1.5 10.1% 18.2% .298 84 118 0.1 Brad Pautz
Rafael Dolis 9.7 5.3 1.3 13.1% 24.1% .288 97 103 0.1 Don Aase
Jackson Rees 9.0 4.1 1.2 10.6% 23.1% .297 97 103 0.1 Scott Gentile
Marcus Reyes 6.4 3.6 1.1 9.0% 16.1% .298 95 105 0.0 Gabe Gonzalez
A.J. Cole 9.1 3.3 1.8 8.6% 23.4% .296 93 108 0.0 Bob Howry
Conor Fisk 7.5 3.2 1.9 8.1% 18.8% .295 82 122 0.0 Scott Taylor
Nick Allgeyer 6.8 3.9 1.8 9.6% 16.7% .296 79 127 0.0 Mark Watson
Brody Rodning 7.6 4.1 1.4 10.2% 18.9% .292 92 108 0.0 Matt Dunbar
Mike Ellenbest 7.4 4.6 1.4 11.3% 18.1% .299 85 118 0.0 Daniel Foli
Travis Bergen 8.7 5.7 1.4 13.9% 21.2% .286 87 115 -0.1 Phil Norton
Cre Finfrock 8.9 6.2 1.2 15.0% 21.5% .297 83 120 -0.1 Josh Banks
Elvis Luciano 7.2 5.1 1.7 12.1% 17.3% .301 75 134 -0.1 Arnie Munoz
Brandon Eisert 7.5 3.3 1.6 8.3% 18.8% .296 89 112 -0.2 Mark Lee
Parker Caracci 7.5 4.9 1.5 12.1% 18.3% .295 85 118 -0.3 Jamie Emiliano
Jon Harris 6.5 2.8 2.1 7.0% 16.1% .295 76 131 -0.3 Jason Simontacchi
Jackson McClelland 7.6 5.6 2.3 13.3% 18.1% .291 68 147 -0.7 Mumba Rivera

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

51 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
airforce21one
4 months ago

Lourdes Gurriel Jr at only 1.5 WAR for the season? Is there somewhere I can bet real money on this?

Francoeursteinmember
4 months ago
Reply to  airforce21one

Perfectly reasonable projection. It’s what he posted last year.

Mike
4 months ago
Reply to  Francoeurstein

It was also the tale of two halves. 136 wRC+ in 2nd half with a solid .51 K/BB vs wRC+ of 86 in the 1H with an abysmal .19 K/BB.

He had a 134 wRC+ and 124 wRC+ the prior two seasons so I am a bit surprised if I’m being honest.

sadtrombonemember
4 months ago
Reply to  Mike

Gurriel’s always going to be like this because he strikes out a lot and doesn’t walk very much, so when he’s not whacking dingers he’s a real liability. Fortunately, he has periods where he hits a lot of home runs. He, Teoscar Hernandez, and Randal Grichuk are all kind of like this, although Hernandez has had a good last couple of years.

Twitchy
4 months ago
Reply to  Mike

Gurriel is incredibly streaky. How good his performance is will depend on how long he stays hot. He’s either an incredible, put your team on his shoulders kind of guy, or sub replacement level. There’s very few periods where he’s in between that.

Travis Lmember
4 months ago
Reply to  Mike

Half-based splits are not predictive. Use larger sample sizes – his prior 2 seasons rates are more relevant (although his 2020 was only in a few games)

Hughesmember
4 months ago
Reply to  Travis L

If you’re including 2019, don’t forget to factor in the 120 PA of 95 wRC+ he put up in AAA.

2021 is his first full season. It’s leaning pretty hard on that. It might be a bit low on BABIP and power, but it might not. If last year was a down year, he’s got the opportunity to blow past it then.

airforce21one
4 months ago
Reply to  Francoeurstein

Impeccable logic.

noah2112member
4 months ago
Reply to  airforce21one

His would increase his chances if he just sat out the first 2 months of the seasons.