2022 ZiPS Projections: Toronto Blue Jays

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Batters

If you start with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, it’s hard for your offense to do too poorly without major malpractice. And no malpractice is present here, as George Springer projects to (hopefully) have a healthier season while the Jays’ confusing, Cerberus-like catching situation should be adequate whatever configuration they go with. Teoscar Hernández projects to regress a bit BABIP-wise, but his power still makes him a comfortable plug-and-play cleanup hitter, though I’d personally prefer that he hit third since that’s the lineup spot that leads off the fewest innings. ZiPS doesn’t see Cavan Biggio being as much of a chip off the old block as Bichette or Guerrero, but it does expect a great deal of improvement from his sub-replacement 2021 season.

There are still places where the Jays can make improvements. Santiago Espinal was a nice little surprise and hit very well in the majors in 2021, but the projections are unimpressed with a minor league record that screams complementary talent. Kevin Smith projects to hit for power but with a low BA/OBP, and he’ll probably struggle to be valuable at third unless he turns out to be extremely adept at playing the hot corner. Another spare outfielder would also be helpful; ZiPS isn’t crazy about Randal Grichuk as the main fallback option.

Reinforcements from the minors are likely to be limited. The Jays haven’t splurged on NRI signings yet and while Jordan Groshans and Orelvis Martinez project to be contributors in the future, 2022 may be a bit too soon unless one of them has a sudden breakout. All that said, I’d argue that the other teams in the AL East have at least one more serious question to answer than the Jays do.

Pitchers

Toronto’s front four looks absolutely rock-solid, with ZiPS projecting Alek Manoah to continue to build on his breakout 2021 season. What else can you say about this group? I’d take them over any other quartet in the division. The fifth starter is a little trickier, however, and given the competition in the AL East, I’d like the Blue Jays to add some depth of the Matthew Boyd variety rather than going with Ross Stripling until they’re sure about Nate Pearson and how much they can stretch him out as a starter. Plus, injuries do happen and the other starting options in the high minors aren’t terribly exciting. Even with the concerns about the back of the rotation, I’m much happier with the group than I would be if we flipped the calendar back a year.

Toronto’s bullpen wasn’t a highlight last season, but that was largely due to an itchier-than-usual rash of injuries. There isn’t much here that will knock your socks off beyond Jordan Romano, but there are a lot of solid projections. Like the rotation and the lineup, I think another arm or two in the back of the bullpen to fatten up the roster would be helpful, as the minor league depth isn’t that exciting.

I think all four of the good teams in the AL East have a strong chance at 90 wins, and while they may not project to have the highest ceiling, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Jays with the best shot to get there. All the contenders have work to do, but Toronto’s challenges are more about finding role players along the periphery than landing the big score. Not that one wouldn’t be welcome, of course!

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.