2022 ZiPS Projections: Washington Nationals

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals.

Batters

You can divide Washington’s offense into two distinct parts. The first part is Juan Soto, who got Ted Williams as his top offensive comp. That’s the straight-up, pure, 100% unadulterated Ted Williams comp, too. There’s no trick here; I’m not going to say, “Ha ha! ZiPS was talking about 1980s minor league outfielder Ted Williams.” Soto’s plate discipline is other-worldly. In his best season, Joey Votto was still nearly a quarter more likely to swing at an out-of-the-zone pitch than Soto was as a 22-year-old in 2021.

Soto isn’t going to be the kind of all-around talent that Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ronald Acuña Jr. are, but he’s the best pure hitting talent we’ve had since prime Barry Bonds or Albert Pujols. And unlike a lot of very disciplined hitters, he’s not passive at all against a crushable pitch. Indeed, crushing those pitches is what he does: his bat generates so many barrels that he should start his own bourbon distillery. If Soto actually has an improvement left in him, teams should start approaching him like turn-of-the-century Bonds.

[A typo has been fixed. To the best of my knowledge, neither Tatis nor Acuña have engaged in cannabilism. -DS]

The other part of the offense comprises the players who aren’t Juan Soto; this portion is far less exciting. ZiPS is far more excited about Josh Bell than it was a year ago, and his defense at first has improved considerably. But he’s not a star and will likely be in another uniform by the time Washington is a good team again (he’s a free agent after 2022). ZiPS remains optimistic about Keibert Ruiz, one of the players acquired in the Trea Turner/Max Scherzer blockbuster last summer. The computer isn’t giving up on Carter Kieboom, either, but even if we agree ZiPS for the sake of argument, the Nats haven’t handled Kieboom all that impressively and the fact is that he didn’t hit major or minor league pitching very well last year.

There’s no immediate help on the horizon here outside of Ruiz. Among the hitters, ZiPS only projects Soto, Ruiz, and Victor Robles to have at least 10 WAR remaining in their professional careers. While they have enough bodies on hand to cobble together league-average — or at least league-average adjacent — performances at most positions, without luck and incredible health, this is a bottom-tier offense that also happens to have Juan Soto available.

Pitchers

The news is slightly more optimistic here. ZiPS is aware that Strasburg is out with thoracic outlet surgery, which is a bigger hit to his outlook than if he had had Tommy John surgery, but his projection is still solid enough to be patient if he isn’t 100% immediately upon his return. And given the shallowness of their roster and a contract that goes through the end of the 2026 season, it’s not as if the Nats have another option waiting in the wings.

One pitcher — and arguably just one — gets a genuinely bullish projection: Patrick Corbin. ZiPS was down on Corbin last season, and he was legitimately lousy throughout 2021, but his velocity also ticked back up to normal and with slight improvements in his contact and swinging-strike rate, ZiPS thought he should have had a mild rebound in his strikeout rate last year rather than a continued decline.

Few of the other starting pitchers project well, and of the remaining lumpenpitchetariat, only Josiah Gray projects as having very much upside at all.

The bullpen forecast is especially bleak. If ZiPS is to believed, this is a bottom-five relief corp, thoroughly below average once you get past Kyle Finnegan and Will Harris; I’d actually rather have the 2022 Durham Bulls bullpen. But if you’re looking for a silver lining, ZiPS and Steamer part ways a bit here, with Steamer seeing Tanner Rainey and Patrick Murphy as more enticing options.

I think this is the last place team in the 2022 NL East. I’m not sanguine on the Marlins scoring any runs, but their rotation is so interesting that the upside dwarfs anything the Nats have outside of Soto.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Juan Soto L 23 RF 675 523 121 164 29 3 35 120 144 104 13 6
Josh Bell B 29 1B 568 495 78 135 27 2 28 100 65 106 0 1
Keibert Ruiz B 23 C 430 394 48 106 20 1 17 59 30 54 0 0
Victor Robles R 25 CF 527 461 60 109 26 3 10 42 38 126 18 7
César Hernández B 32 2B 615 551 76 137 23 2 16 62 56 122 4 2
Lane Thomas R 26 CF 405 358 52 84 19 3 13 51 41 110 9 5
Carter Kieboom R 24 3B 491 428 62 102 18 2 14 54 50 117 2 2
Starlin Castro R 32 3B 499 463 48 126 25 2 11 58 29 86 1 2
Riley Adams R 26 C 336 293 35 63 13 1 10 30 31 112 1 0
Alex Avila L 35 C 148 121 10 22 6 0 4 13 24 53 0 0
Adrián Sanchez R 31 2B 263 246 30 64 13 1 5 24 14 46 5 3
Yadiel Hernandez L 34 LF 390 355 48 95 14 1 15 51 31 88 3 2
Andrew Young R 28 2B 378 332 47 71 19 2 17 51 25 142 2 1
Corban Joseph L 33 2B 373 345 40 89 19 1 7 39 22 52 1 0
Jake Noll R 28 2B 493 460 58 118 22 2 14 55 24 92 3 1
Brandon Snyder R 35 3B 325 298 38 64 13 0 14 44 19 109 1 0
Derek Dietrich L 32 2B 326 283 42 58 10 1 12 38 25 93 1 1
Tres Barrera R 27 C 339 302 35 67 14 1 7 32 27 75 1 1
René Rivera R 38 C 239 218 25 45 7 0 10 31 14 80 0 0
Mike Ford L 29 1B 418 373 53 84 18 0 18 55 38 95 1 0
Jecksson Flores R 28 SS 375 338 36 77 14 1 6 29 25 69 8 3
Jake Alu L 25 3B 360 339 38 82 15 1 8 33 16 82 7 2
Drew Millas B 24 C 402 361 58 84 14 1 6 35 32 75 7 2
Andrew Stevenson L 28 CF 360 329 40 82 14 3 8 38 23 100 6 3
Alec Keller L 30 LF 318 295 35 78 12 2 4 26 17 53 5 1
Richard Ureña B 26 2B 413 383 43 90 19 2 8 40 19 101 2 2
Ryan Zimmerman R 37 1B 248 232 23 55 13 0 11 42 14 67 0 0
Humberto Arteaga R 28 SS 351 331 31 75 12 1 5 25 14 71 4 2
Lucius Fox B 24 2B 384 340 43 71 16 4 6 30 38 104 21 5
Raudy Read R 28 1B 251 235 29 59 12 2 10 34 11 56 0 0
Maikel Franco R 29 3B 452 418 40 99 23 0 14 56 28 67 0 0
Alcides Escobar R 35 SS 432 399 50 98 20 1 6 36 22 77 4 1
Yasmany Tomás R 31 1B 336 318 39 77 15 2 15 48 15 99 1 0
Gerardo Parra L 35 LF 239 218 28 51 9 1 5 28 16 54 4 3
Alex Dunlap R 27 C 182 165 19 31 7 0 4 16 14 59 0 0
Jackson Cluff L 25 SS 234 211 21 41 6 2 5 16 15 67 5 3
Carlos Tocci R 26 CF 268 244 25 55 8 1 4 17 18 56 1 3
Rafael Bautista R 29 CF 226 211 25 48 8 1 5 20 10 45 3 1
Ramon Flores L 30 LF 114 101 10 23 3 0 2 7 11 25 1 1
Jordy Mercer R 35 2B 251 234 22 57 13 0 5 19 15 55 0 0
Blake Swihart B 30 LF 214 194 24 39 6 1 6 22 17 59 1 1
Dee Strange-Gordon L 34 SS 346 327 33 84 11 4 4 25 11 48 11 5
Brady Lindsly L 24 C 163 147 21 31 5 1 3 14 13 43 1 0
Wilmer Perez R 24 C 125 116 12 25 4 0 2 9 6 24 1 1
Welington Castillo R 35 C 204 190 16 41 9 0 8 30 11 58 0 0
Gilbert Lara R 24 SS 480 454 50 97 18 2 11 46 20 128 2 2
Cole Freeman R 27 CF 476 433 57 104 18 2 5 36 27 68 13 4
K.J. Harrison R 25 1B 376 345 38 73 16 1 12 37 26 112 0 0
Donovan Casey R 26 CF 525 487 53 104 19 3 14 47 31 181 13 3
Nick Banks L 27 LF 414 385 44 83 17 1 9 38 24 118 2 2
Yasel Antuna B 22 SS 488 453 60 95 22 1 13 53 29 113 3 2
Cody Wilson R 25 CF 296 268 27 48 7 2 5 18 22 96 11 5
Jacob Rhinesmith L 26 RF 484 441 55 97 20 2 8 43 35 100 7 2
Armond Upshaw B 26 CF 395 359 39 66 9 3 6 29 28 139 14 7
Drew Mendoza L 24 1B 408 368 46 71 13 1 8 33 31 126 4 1
Gage Canning L 25 RF 377 351 32 71 13 3 6 26 22 120 3 4

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Juan Soto .314 .461 .581 177 .268 .336 10.6 0 7.8 Ted Williams
Josh Bell .273 .357 .505 127 .232 .296 6.7 -3 2.7 Brook Jacoby
Keibert Ruiz .269 .326 .454 106 .185 .276 5.5 -1 2.3 Matt Nokes
Victor Robles .236 .320 .371 85 .134 .305 4.3 7 1.8 Darren Burton
César Hernández .249 .322 .385 88 .136 .293 4.5 -1 1.5 Marv Owen
Lane Thomas .235 .317 .413 94 .179 .302 4.6 1 1.4 Ricky Ledee
Carter Kieboom .238 .330 .388 92 .150 .296 4.5 -1 1.3 Pedro Castellano
Starlin Castro .272 .313 .406 91 .134 .314 4.6 -1 1.0 Ray Knight
Riley Adams .215 .310 .369 81 .154 .310 4.0 -2 0.8 Terry McGriff
Alex Avila .182 .327 .331 77 .149 .281 3.6 4 0.7 Jerry Goff
Adrián Sanchez .260 .300 .382 81 .122 .303 4.1 3 0.7 Dave Berg
Yadiel Hernandez .268 .326 .439 102 .172 .317 5.2 -4 0.6 Joel Youngblood
Andrew Young .214 .298 .437 93 .223 .312 4.5 -6 0.6 Matt Macri
Corban Joseph .258 .303 .380 81 .122 .287 4.2 -1 0.5 Jack Wilson
Jake Noll .257 .297 .404 86 .148 .294 4.4 -6 0.5 Greg Legg
Brandon Snyder .215 .274 .399 77 .185 .286 3.8 1 0.4 Jason Wood
Derek Dietrich .205 .307 .375 81 .170 .258 3.9 -2 0.4 Shanie Dugas
Tres Barrera .222 .294 .344 70 .123 .273 3.5 0 0.4 Dave Vangorder
René Rivera .206 .263 .376 68 .170 .273 3.4 2 0.4 Raul Chavez
Mike Ford .225 .304 .418 91 .193 .254 4.5 -1 0.4 Ed Herrmann
Jecksson Flores .228 .286 .328 64 .101 .270 3.4 2 0.3 Gregg Raymundo
Jake Alu .242 .281 .363 71 .121 .297 3.7 1 0.2 Juan Melo
Drew Millas .233 .298 .327 68 .094 .279 3.5 -2 0.2 Mike Durant
Andrew Stevenson .249 .304 .383 83 .134 .335 4.2 -4 0.2 Scott Lusader
Alec Keller .264 .307 .359 78 .095 .311 4.2 2 0.1 Gene Clines
Richard Ureña .235 .272 .358 67 .123 .299 3.4 3 0.1 Mendy Lopez
Ryan Zimmerman .237 .278 .435 87 .198 .286 4.3 0 0.1 Tom Wilson
Humberto Arteaga .227 .261 .314 53 .088 .275 2.9 6 0.1 Carlo Colombino
Lucius Fox .209 .295 .332 68 .124 .283 3.7 -2 0.0 Rod Smith
Raudy Read .251 .288 .447 93 .196 .290 4.6 -2 0.0 Guillermo Garcia
Maikel Franco .237 .285 .392 79 .156 .252 4.0 -4 0.0 Pete Rose Jr.
Alcides Escobar .246 .293 .346 70 .100 .291 3.7 -5 -0.1 Greg Gagne
Yasmany Tomás .242 .277 .443 88 .201 .304 4.4 -2 -0.1 Tom Nevers
Gerardo Parra .234 .294 .353 73 .119 .289 3.6 2 -0.1 Jalal Leach
Alex Dunlap .188 .258 .303 50 .115 .265 2.6 1 -0.1 Ryan Luzinski
Jackson Cluff .194 .262 .313 53 .118 .259 2.7 2 -0.1 Matt Guiliano
Carlos Tocci .225 .285 .316 61 .090 .277 2.9 2 -0.2 Brett Caradonna
Rafael Bautista .227 .271 .346 64 .118 .267 3.3 0 -0.2 Izzy Molina
Ramon Flores .228 .307 .317 68 .089 .284 3.3 0 -0.2 Scott Bikowski
Jordy Mercer .244 .295 .363 75 .120 .299 3.8 -5 -0.3 Wes Helms
Blake Swihart .201 .268 .335 60 .134 .256 3.0 3 -0.3 Lou List
Dee Strange-Gordon .257 .285 .352 69 .095 .291 3.7 -5 -0.3 Craig Reynolds
Brady Lindsly .211 .278 .320 60 .109 .277 3.1 -3 -0.3 Danny Ardoin
Wilmer Perez .216 .258 .302 49 .086 .256 2.6 -1 -0.4 Rogelio Arias
Welington Castillo .216 .265 .389 72 .174 .266 3.5 -6 -0.4 Steven Norris
Gilbert Lara .214 .251 .335 55 .121 .273 2.8 3 -0.4 Sergio Santos
Cole Freeman .240 .297 .326 67 .085 .275 3.6 -4 -0.4 Melvin Mora
K.J. Harrison .212 .272 .368 69 .157 .276 3.4 2 -0.5 Ryan Jones
Donovan Casey .214 .265 .351 63 .138 .308 3.3 -3 -0.6 Luis Terrero
Nick Banks .216 .266 .335 60 .119 .287 3.0 4 -0.7 Nate Peterson
Yasel Antuna .210 .259 .349 61 .139 .251 3.1 -6 -0.9 Vicente Garcia
Cody Wilson .179 .248 .276 40 .097 .257 2.3 2 -0.9 Nicholas Moresi
Jacob Rhinesmith .220 .282 .329 63 .109 .267 3.3 -6 -1.5 Erold Andrus
Armond Upshaw .184 .252 .276 41 .092 .280 2.3 -3 -1.6 Bobby Bonds
Drew Mendoza .193 .264 .299 50 .106 .269 2.7 -1 -1.6 Joe Dusan
Gage Canning .202 .255 .308 50 .105 .289 2.5 -2 -1.8 Randy Walter

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Patrick Corbin L 32 12 10 4.16 29 29 168.7 170 78 25 51 163 4.13
Stephen Strasburg R 33 9 6 3.67 20 20 115.3 99 47 14 38 129 3.67
Joe Ross R 29 7 6 4.37 23 18 103.0 101 50 15 35 103 4.30
Cade Cavalli R 23 8 8 4.81 25 25 121.7 120 65 18 58 119 4.73
Josiah Gray R 24 4 3 4.55 20 18 91.0 83 46 17 35 105 4.59
Erick Fedde R 29 7 7 4.82 28 24 125.0 130 67 20 48 107 4.80
Kyle McGowin R 30 3 3 4.26 30 9 74.0 69 35 11 26 81 4.14
Alex Troop L 25 6 6 4.40 27 7 75.7 81 37 12 18 60 4.53
Kyle Finnegan R 30 6 4 3.81 59 0 59.0 53 25 6 27 65 3.77
Steven Fuentes R 25 4 4 4.55 16 11 55.3 58 28 7 20 42 4.55
Mario Sanchez R 27 6 7 5.03 24 18 107.3 118 60 19 27 80 4.88
Joan Adon R 23 6 7 5.13 22 22 107.0 114 61 16 47 86 5.03
Seth Romero L 26 1 1 4.54 12 11 37.7 36 19 5 17 37 4.45
Will Harris R 37 2 1 3.60 40 0 35.0 31 14 4 11 38 3.44
Matt Tomshaw L 33 5 5 5.07 18 13 76.3 86 43 14 18 58 4.91
Sterling Sharp R 27 5 6 5.17 19 17 85.3 95 49 11 39 55 5.11
Patrick Murphy R 27 4 4 4.83 33 9 72.7 72 39 10 33 65 4.75
Tyler Eppler R 29 6 7 5.23 22 18 98.0 112 57 15 33 62 5.07
Gerardo Carrillo R 23 5 6 5.31 24 23 98.3 104 58 15 51 76 5.33
Francisco Perez L 24 2 2 4.26 35 0 57.0 52 27 7 26 61 4.11
Wander Suero R 30 5 4 4.40 59 1 57.3 55 28 9 21 60 4.44
Austin Voth R 30 4 5 5.13 37 12 80.7 83 46 16 29 79 5.03
Alberto Guerrero R 24 4 5 5.07 35 9 76.3 81 43 11 33 59 5.00
Víctor Arano R 27 2 1 4.25 35 0 36.0 32 17 5 16 40 4.18
Paolo Espino R 35 4 5 5.32 27 16 88.0 94 52 19 25 78 5.13
Jhon Romero R 27 3 3 4.44 40 0 52.7 54 26 7 18 43 4.41
Jefry Rodriguez R 28 3 3 5.38 25 14 78.7 81 47 13 42 66 5.37
Aaron Barrett R 34 3 2 4.50 35 0 36.0 35 18 4 17 33 4.37
Carson Teel L 26 4 5 5.34 31 12 84.3 94 50 15 31 59 5.34
Tanner Rainey R 29 3 3 4.70 51 1 46.0 35 24 7 34 69 4.57
Francys Peguero R 26 4 5 5.32 26 9 69.3 79 41 12 25 48 5.30
Sam Clay L 29 3 3 4.61 57 0 54.7 56 28 5 28 45 4.48
Vidal Nuno L 34 3 4 5.33 19 6 49.0 55 29 11 13 36 5.61
Sean Nolin L 32 3 4 5.53 21 13 70.0 78 43 15 28 59 5.65
Ryne Harper R 33 2 2 4.70 47 0 51.7 52 27 9 15 48 4.57
Luis Avilán L 32 1 1 4.85 36 0 26.0 25 14 4 12 25 4.87
Dakody Clemmer R 26 3 3 4.75 37 0 53.0 53 28 6 30 43 4.90
Curtis Taylor R 26 3 3 5.09 31 2 40.7 42 23 7 18 36 5.12
Tim Cate L 24 6 7 5.67 21 21 98.3 114 62 17 40 62 5.54
Ryan Tapani R 28 3 3 5.37 25 4 57.0 62 34 10 24 46 5.27
Nick Wells L 26 3 3 5.48 28 7 64.0 69 39 9 37 50 5.37
Bryan Bonnell R 28 3 3 5.20 37 3 62.3 69 36 12 19 48 5.20
Alberto Baldonado L 29 3 4 5.00 43 0 45.0 44 25 8 22 47 5.00
Reid Schaller R 25 3 4 5.44 29 3 43.0 45 26 6 27 34 5.44
Dakota Bacus R 31 3 4 5.10 37 0 47.7 49 27 7 22 40 4.92
Matt Cronin L 24 2 3 5.47 23 0 26.3 25 16 5 15 29 5.38
Mason Thompson R 24 4 5 5.19 52 1 50.3 54 29 8 26 42 5.25
Gabe Klobosits R 27 3 3 5.19 39 0 43.3 45 25 7 21 35 5.33
Rogelio Armenteros R 28 4 5 5.91 17 15 70.0 77 46 17 31 63 5.99
Javy Guerra R 36 1 1 5.31 34 0 40.7 45 24 8 14 33 5.29
Frankie Bartow R 25 2 3 5.30 33 0 37.3 41 22 6 17 25 5.46
Jackson Tetreault R 26 5 7 5.88 19 19 90.3 105 59 17 42 62 5.85
Andrew Karp R 26 1 1 5.33 24 1 52.3 55 31 8 26 41 5.26
Andrew Lee R 28 4 5 5.80 25 10 68.3 71 44 11 44 59 5.65
Matt Brill R 27 3 4 5.55 34 0 35.7 35 22 5 25 34 5.45
Andres Machado R 29 2 2 5.46 47 2 57.7 60 35 11 27 50 5.54
Ronald Peña R 30 1 1 5.62 32 0 40.0 43 25 7 21 34 5.48
Josh Rogers L 27 6 9 5.98 22 19 111.3 133 74 25 34 70 5.95
Joan Baez R 27 3 5 6.18 24 7 55.3 61 38 10 36 41 6.22
Luis Reyes R 27 6 9 6.04 25 20 104.3 118 70 19 54 74 5.85
Ben Braymer L 28 6 8 6.15 25 20 98.0 111 67 21 50 74 6.14

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Patrick Corbin 8.7 2.7 1.3 7.1% 22.7% .305 105 96 2.5 Harvey Haddix
Stephen Strasburg 10.1 3.0 1.1 7.9% 26.8% .288 119 84 2.3 Bert Blyleven
Joe Ross 9.0 3.1 1.3 7.9% 23.1% .302 100 100 1.3 Steve Parris
Cade Cavalli 8.8 4.3 1.3 10.7% 22.0% .300 91 110 1.0 Aaron Heilman
Josiah Gray 10.4 3.5 1.7 9.0% 27.0% .289 96 104 1.0 Rob Bell
Erick Fedde 7.7 3.5 1.4 8.8% 19.5% .298 90 111 0.9 Victor Santos
Kyle McGowin 9.9 3.2 1.3 8.2% 25.6% .299 102 98 0.8 Alejandro Pena
Alex Troop 7.1 2.1 1.4 5.6% 18.5% .300 99 101 0.7 Mark Peterson
Kyle Finnegan 9.9 4.1 0.9 10.6% 25.5% .303 114 88 0.6 Ryan Dempster
Steven Fuentes 6.8 3.3 1.1 8.2% 17.3% .298 96 105 0.6 Bill Caudill
Mario Sanchez 6.7 2.3 1.6 5.8% 17.2% .297 87 115 0.6 Josh Towers
Joan Adon 7.2 4.0 1.3 9.8% 17.9% .302 85 118 0.5 Clemente Nunez
Seth Romero 8.8 4.1 1.2 10.3% 22.4% .298 96 104 0.4 Bruce Berenyi
Will Harris 9.8 2.8 1.0 7.6% 26.2% .293 121 83 0.4 Trevor Hoffman
Matt Tomshaw 6.8 2.1 1.7 5.4% 17.5% .304 86 116 0.4 Greg Swindell
Sterling Sharp 5.8 4.1 1.2 10.1% 14.2% .302 84 119 0.3 Sean White
Patrick Murphy 8.1 4.1 1.2 10.2% 20.1% .295 90 111 0.3 Jared Hoerman
Tyler Eppler 5.7 3.0 1.4 7.6% 14.2% .302 83 120 0.3 Joe Mays
Gerardo Carrillo 7.0 4.7 1.4 11.4% 17.0% .296 82 122 0.3 Ben Hendrickson
Francisco Perez 9.6 4.1 1.1 10.5% 24.7% .298 102 98 0.2 Jim Poole
Wander Suero 9.4 3.3 1.4 8.5% 24.2% .299 99 101 0.2 Tyler Walker
Austin Voth 8.8 3.2 1.8 8.2% 22.4% .299 85 118 0.2 Erik Hiljus
Alberto Guerrero 7.0 3.9 1.3 9.6% 17.3% .299 86 116 0.2 Yoel Hernandez
Víctor Arano 10.0 4.0 1.3 10.3% 25.8% .290 102 98 0.2 Rich Garces
Paolo Espino 8.0 2.6 1.9 6.6% 20.6% .294 82 122 0.1 John Wasdin
Jhon Romero 7.3 3.1 1.2 7.9% 18.9% .297 98 102 0.1 Jose Santiago
Jefry Rodriguez 7.6 4.8 1.5 11.8% 18.5% .293 81 123 0.1 Anastacio Martinez
Aaron Barrett 8.3 4.3 1.0 10.7% 20.8% .301 97 103 0.0 Darrin Babineaux
Carson Teel 6.3 3.3 1.6 8.3% 15.7% .297 82 122 0.0 Adam Flohr
Tanner Rainey 13.5 6.7 1.4 16.3% 33.2% .295 93 108 0.0 Jorge Julio
Francys Peguero 6.2 3.2 1.6 8.0% 15.4% .302 82 122 0.0 Joe Roa
Sam Clay 7.4 4.6 0.8 11.3% 18.1% .307 94 106 0.0 Carmen Cali
Vidal Nuno 6.6 2.4 2.0 6.1% 16.8% .291 82 122 0.0 Dave Schmidt
Sean Nolin 7.6 3.6 1.9 8.9% 18.7% .301 79 127 0.0 Robert Lee
Ryne Harper 8.4 2.6 1.6 6.8% 21.8% .295 93 108 0.0 Rusty Meacham
Luis Avilán 8.7 4.2 1.4 10.4% 21.7% .292 90 111 -0.1 Matt Young
Dakody Clemmer 7.3 5.1 1.0 12.4% 17.8% .296 92 109 -0.1 Steve LaRose
Curtis Taylor 8.0 4.0 1.5 9.9% 19.9% .297 86 117 -0.1 Miguel Saladin
Tim Cate 5.7 3.7 1.6 9.0% 13.9% .301 77 130 -0.1 Ryan Spille
Ryan Tapani 7.3 3.8 1.6 9.4% 18.0% .301 81 123 -0.2 Erik Schullstrom
Nick Wells 7.0 5.2 1.3 12.5% 16.8% .305 79 126 -0.2 Brian Adams
Bryan Bonnell 6.9 2.7 1.7 7.0% 17.6% .298 84 119 -0.2 Tim McNab
Alberto Baldonado 9.4 4.4 1.6 11.0% 23.5% .298 87 115 -0.2 Bill White
Reid Schaller 7.1 5.7 1.3 13.5% 17.0% .298 80 125 -0.2 Heathcliff Slocumb
Dakota Bacus 7.6 4.2 1.3 10.4% 18.9% .298 85 117 -0.2 Joe Borowski
Matt Cronin 9.9 5.1 1.7 12.6% 24.4% .294 80 126 -0.3 Taylor Tankersley
Mason Thompson 7.5 4.6 1.4 11.4% 18.3% .305 84 119 -0.3 Mike Madden
Gabe Klobosits 7.3 4.4 1.5 10.7% 17.9% .292 84 119 -0.3 Rick Greene
Rogelio Armenteros 8.1 4.0 2.2 9.8% 19.9% .297 74 136 -0.3 Clint Weibl
Javy Guerra 7.3 3.1 1.8 7.8% 18.3% .301 82 122 -0.3 Ben Weber
Frankie Bartow 6.0 4.1 1.4 10.1% 14.8% .294 82 122 -0.3 Andy Nezelek
Jackson Tetreault 6.2 4.2 1.7 10.1% 14.9% .303 74 135 -0.3 Chris Enochs
Andrew Karp 7.1 4.5 1.4 11.0% 17.3% .296 82 122 -0.3 Anastacio Martinez
Andrew Lee 7.8 5.8 1.4 13.8% 18.5% .299 75 133 -0.3 Steve Green
Matt Brill 8.6 6.3 1.3 14.9% 20.2% .297 78 127 -0.4 Ryan Baker
Andres Machado 7.8 4.2 1.7 10.4% 19.2% .292 80 125 -0.4 Doug Bochtler
Ronald Peña 7.7 4.7 1.6 11.5% 18.6% .303 77 129 -0.4 William Ormond
Josh Rogers 5.7 2.7 2.0 6.8% 14.0% .298 73 137 -0.5 Randy Marshall
Joan Baez 6.7 5.9 1.6 13.7% 15.6% .297 70 142 -0.5 Rob Purvis
Luis Reyes 6.4 4.7 1.6 11.2% 15.3% .300 72 139 -0.6 Ben Fritz
Ben Braymer 6.8 4.6 1.9 11.0% 16.3% .297 71 141 -0.6 Dan Smith

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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HBPmember
8 months ago

“…his bat generates so many barrels that he should start his own bourbon distillery.” pure gold right here.

jamesdakrnmember
8 months ago
Reply to  HBP

I want a Soto 12 yr bourbon

kick me in the GO NATSmember
8 months ago
Reply to  jamesdakrn

It’s called Soto. It’s expensive. And i will need 16 more years of aging on this pure unfiltered rye mash.

JoeyVottoIsGodmember
8 months ago
Reply to  HBP

Juan Soto bourbon that Juan Soto is barely old enough to drink.

kick me in the GO NATSmember
8 months ago
Reply to  HBP

This word Maker’s Mark!